Radian Group Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• Radian’s third-quarter results rose sharply: Revenue more than doubled year over year to $624 million, while adjusted net operating income increased 25% to $1.44 per diluted share, with contributions from mortgage and specialty insurance.
• Specialty earnings benefited from low catastrophe losses: The segment generated $86 million in adjusted pre-tax operating income and an 80% combined ratio; absent lower catastrophe losses, the ratio would have been in the low 90s. Mortgage defaults increased to 2.68% as expected, but the company reported no broad credit deterioration and said cures remained strong.
• Radian stepped up capital returns: 2026 share repurchases reached $379 million, exceeding its prior $200 million–$250 million guidance, and the company expects $660 million in subsidiary dividends for the year, above its initial $600 million outlook.

Radian Group NYSE: RDN reported higher third-quarter revenue and operating earnings as its Inigo acquisition expanded the contribution from specialty insurance, while the company accelerated share repurchases beyond its previous guidance.

Revenue more than doubled from a year earlier to $624 million, and adjusted pre-tax operating income reached $254 million. Adjusted net operating income was $1.44 per diluted share, up 25% from the third quarter of 2025. On a GAAP basis, net income from continuing operations was $1.28 per diluted share.

Chief Executive Officer Mike Weinbach, speaking on his first earnings call in the role, said both the mortgage and specialty businesses contributed to the quarter. Specialty results benefited from relatively benign catastrophe activity, while mortgage performance remained in line with expectations as credit normalized, he said.

For the first nine months of 2026, operating earnings per share rose 17% to $3.84, and operating return on equity was 15%, said Dan Kobell, who was recently appointed chief financial officer. Third-quarter adjusted net operating return on equity was 16%, up approximately 250 basis points year over year.

Specialty Results Benefit From Low Catastrophe Losses

Specialty accounted for 57% of Radian’s $548 million in net premiums earned during the quarter and 34% of adjusted pre-tax operating income. The segment generated $86 million in adjusted pre-tax operating income and posted an 80% net combined ratio, a measure of claims and expenses relative to premiums.

Kobell said that without the benefit of lower catastrophe losses, the specialty combined ratio would have been in line with prior guidance in the low 90s. Specialty net premiums earned declined 3% year over year to $311 million as the company prioritized profitable underwriting over premium growth in a more competitive market, particularly in property insurance and reinsurance.

The segment’s $148 million loss provision included $43 million of favorable development on prior-period reserves. Russell Merrett, Radian’s group property and casualty strategy lead, said the reserve releases came from a range of business lines, with catastrophe-related releases accounting for a little less than half of the total.

Inigo CEO Richard Watson said the business focuses on expertise in selected lines, data analysis and customer relationships. While investment income is part of evaluating longer-tail risks, Watson said Inigo seeks underwriting opportunities that are attractive before considering that income.

Mortgage Defaults Rise as Portfolio Seasons

Radian’s mortgage segment generated $206 million in adjusted pre-tax operating income and a 37% combined ratio. Primary insurance in force reached a record $286 billion, with $15 billion of new insurance written during the quarter. Annualized persistency was 83%, supported by limited refinancing activity.

The mortgage default rate rose to 2.68%, which Kobell described as an expected seasonal increase. He said another increase would typically be expected in the fourth quarter, partly because older insurance vintages, which tend to have higher default rates, represent a growing share of the portfolio.

Kobell said the company was not seeing signs of credit deterioration across individual cohorts or geographies. Defaults have continued to cure at high levels, he said, with cumulative cures trending toward 96% to 97%, compared with a 92.5% assumption embedded in reserves.

Asked about a housing executive order that includes a potential pilot for simpler mortgage insurance cancellation, Weinbach said Radian supports the goal of reducing homeownership costs but that it was too early to provide specifics about the potential effects.

Buybacks Exceed Earlier Guidance

Radian repurchased $135 million of shares during the third quarter and another $117 million in October. That brought its 2026 repurchases to $379 million, equivalent to 8% of shares outstanding at the start of the year and above its previous $200 million to $250 million guidance range.

Kobell said the company bought more than $200 million of shares over the preceding three months at an average price below current book value. Weinbach said Radian had not anticipated the opportunity to repurchase shares near or below book value and might or might not make additional purchases before year-end, depending on the stock price.

Book value per share was $35.78 at quarter-end. Kobell said the impact of higher interest rates on accumulated other comprehensive income or loss reduced book value by $1.33 per share during the quarter. Excluding that measure, book value per share rose 9% year over year.

Radian fully repaid the remaining balance on its revolving credit facility during the quarter, bringing holding-company leverage below 19%. Holding-company liquidity was $376 million at quarter-end.

Kobell also said Radian expects a $145 million fourth-quarter dividend from its mortgage insurance subsidiary, Radian Guaranty, bringing the expected 2026 total to $660 million, above its initial $600 million guidance. The company expects to refinance a senior debt maturity in the first quarter of 2027, he said.

About Radian Group (NYSE:RDN)

Radian Group Inc NYSE: RDN is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance and related services to the residential real estate industry. Through its mortgage insurance subsidiaries, including Radian Guaranty Inc, the company helps lenders manage credit risk on residential mortgages, particularly loans made to borrowers with smaller down payments. Its insurance can also help borrowers obtain home financing without contributing a traditional 20% down payment.

Radian's mortgage insurance business serves mortgage lenders, banks, credit unions and other housing finance participants primarily in the United States.

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