What Adecoagro (AGRO) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Key Points

• Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $472 million for the first nine months, nearly $100 million above the prior period record, as fertilizer and dairy strength offset weaker sugar, ethanol and energy results.
• Fertilizer was a major growth driver: nine-month adjusted EBITDA rose 65% to $283 million, supported by higher urea sales, production and efficiencies. Adecoagro is working toward a 2027 investment decision on a potential Profertil plant expansion.
• Adecoagro expects fourth-quarter ethanol sales to rise by 200,000 cubic meters from the third quarter, at prices about 25% higher, including a temporary subsidy. Net debt was $1.8 billion after the Caarapó acquisition, and the company reiterated its goal of reducing leverage to about 2.5 times by year-end.

Adecoagro NYSE: AGRO reported record nine-month adjusted EBITDA of $472 million as stronger fertilizer and dairy results more than offset weaker earnings from sugar, ethanol and energy, executives said on the company’s third-quarter earnings call.

CEO Mariano Bosch said the nine-month figure was nearly $100 million above the company’s previous record for the period. CFO Emilio Gnecco said the results were presented on a pro forma basis, assuming the fertilizer business had been part of Adecoagro since the beginning of 2025.

Gross sales totaled $591 million in the third quarter and $1.5 billion for the first nine months. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA was in line with the prior year, Gnecco said, while the nine-month total approached the company’s full-year record.

Fertilizer earnings climb

The fertilizer business generated $109 million in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, up 7% from a year earlier. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA rose 65% to $283 million, supported by higher urea sales, production volumes and operating efficiencies.

Urea production increased 4% year over year in the quarter and 11% over nine months. Gnecco said the average realized price for the first nine months was $561 per ton, $81 above the comparable period a year earlier.

Asked about costs, Bosch said nine-month production costs were $237 per ton, compared with $262 per ton in the pro forma prior-year period. He said the 2026 figure included costs associated with other products and some spending on growth, maintenance and a potential plant expansion.

Bosch said Adecoagro was working toward a final investment decision on a potential expansion of its Profertil plant sometime in 2027. He said the region imports enough urea to accommodate additional production, including from another proposed project.

On earnings expectations, Bosch said an annual figure above $300 million remained reasonable for Profertil, but cautioned that the roughly $110 million reported for the third quarter was higher than the company would expect as a quarterly run rate. The quarter benefited from some urea sales carried over from the prior period, he said.

Caarapó adds crushing capacity

Adecoagro completed its acquisition of Brazil’s Caarapó sugar mill on Sept. 1 for approximately $136 million in cash. Gnecco said the mill is processing surplus cane from the company’s Angélica and Ivinhema operations and is expected to operate above its historical crushing levels in its first year under Adecoagro’s ownership.

Renato Junqueira Santos Pereira, vice president of sugar, ethanol and energy, said Caarapó has potential to improve industrial efficiency, increase milling hours and reduce energy consumption. The company expects the mill to crush between 4 million and 5 million tons of cane in 2027, with operations restarting on March 1 after a two-month inter-harvest period.

Across the segment, Adecoagro crushed 4.6 million tons of cane in the third quarter, slightly below the prior year as September rainfall reduced milling days. Nine-month crushing reached 10.4 million tons, above the prior-year level, while productivity measured by total recoverable sugar per hectare rose 24%.

Segment adjusted EBITDA was $101 million for the quarter and $120 million for the first nine months. Gnecco attributed the year-over-year decline to lower sales and the effect of lower Consecana prices on the valuation of biological assets.

Ethanol outlook and leverage targets

Pereira said tight ethanol supplies and strong demand supported the company’s near-term price outlook. Adecoagro is producing and selling hydrous ethanol to benefit from a government subsidy that he said was in place until Dec. 9; he said the company did not know whether it would continue beyond that date.

For the fourth quarter, Pereira said Adecoagro expected to sell 200,000 cubic meters more ethanol than in the third quarter at an average price approximately 25% higher, including the subsidy. He also forecast full-year cane crushing about 15% above the prior year, including Caarapó.

Net debt stood at $1.8 billion at quarter-end, with pro forma net leverage of 3.2 times. Gnecco said the quarter-over-quarter increase in net debt was entirely attributable to the Caarapó acquisition and reiterated a target of approximately 2.5 times leverage by year-end.

Gnecco said the company would feel comfortable with leverage between 2 and 2.5 times, potentially putting it in a position to reconsider capital deployment. Adecoagro also plans to pay the second $17.5 million installment of its annual cash dividend on Nov. 19, completing its 2026 shareholder distribution program.

Food and agriculture recovery

In food and agriculture, Gnecco said the company completed the 2025–26 harvest with better-than-expected yields and produced more than 1.2 million tons of agricultural products. Dairy productivity reached a quarterly record, while stronger domestic consumer-brand sales and a recovery in white rice prices helped results.

Planting for the 2026–27 season was 57% complete, with planted area expected to rise 3%, primarily in rice and peanuts. Adecoagro expects yields in line with or slightly above historical averages, Gnecco said.

About Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO)

Adecoagro is a South American agribusiness company that produces food and renewable energy. Its operations span farming, dairy, rice, and sugar and ethanol production. The company grows crops such as soybeans, corn, and wheat, and produces rice and milk. In Brazil, it processes sugarcane into sugar, ethanol, and renewable electricity. Adecoagro operates in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. Founded in 2002, it combines agricultural production with processing and energy generation across its regional operations.

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