Zacks Research Lowers Earnings Estimates for Toll Brothers

Key Points

• Zacks Research lowered its Q3 2026 EPS estimate for Toll Brothers to $2.88 from $3.52, signaling a more cautious view on near-term earnings. The firm still sees full-year earnings of $12.68 per share.
• Despite the estimate cut, other analysts remain broadly positive: Citigroup started coverage with an outperform rating, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded Toll Brothers to outperform and raised its price target to $161.
• Toll Brothers recently beat quarterly expectations, reporting EPS of $2.72 on revenue of $2.53 billion, though revenue was still down 7.6% year over year. The stock opened at $139.16 and the company continues to have strong institutional ownership.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Zacks Research dropped their Q3 2026 EPS estimates for shares of Toll Brothers in a note issued to investors on Tuesday, June 9th. Zacks Research analyst Team now expects that the construction company will post earnings of $2.88 per share for the quarter, down from their previous forecast of $3.52. The consensus estimate for Toll Brothers' current full-year earnings is $12.68 per share. Zacks Research also issued estimates for Toll Brothers' Q4 2026 earnings at $4.85 EPS and Q3 2027 earnings at $3.52 EPS.

Other equities research analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. Citigroup began coverage on shares of Toll Brothers in a research report on Tuesday. They issued an "outperform" rating for the company. Truist Financial dropped their target price on shares of Toll Brothers from $170.00 to $165.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research report on Thursday, May 21st. Barclays dropped their target price on shares of Toll Brothers from $116.00 to $115.00 and set an "underweight" rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, April 8th. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised shares of Toll Brothers from a "market perform" rating to an "outperform" rating and boosted their target price for the stock from $158.00 to $161.00 in a research report on Tuesday. Finally, Argus set a $170.00 target price on shares of Toll Brothers in a research report on Tuesday, June 2nd. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating, six have assigned a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Toll Brothers has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $163.56.

Toll Brothers Price Performance

TOL opened at $139.16 on Thursday. The company has a 50-day moving average of $138.60 and a 200-day moving average of $142.33. The company has a market capitalization of $13.01 billion, a P/E ratio of 10.53, a PEG ratio of 1.19 and a beta of 1.36. Toll Brothers has a 1-year low of $104.09 and a 1-year high of $168.36. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, a quick ratio of 0.59 and a current ratio of 4.67.

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, May 19th. The construction company reported $2.72 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $2.58 by $0.14. The company had revenue of $2.53 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $2.42 billion. Toll Brothers had a net margin of 11.66% and a return on equity of 15.47%. The firm's revenue for the quarter was down 7.6% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the business earned $3.50 EPS.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Ariadne Wealth Management LP boosted its stake in Toll Brothers by 6.6% during the 1st quarter. Ariadne Wealth Management LP now owns 2,244 shares of the construction company's stock valued at $306,000 after purchasing an additional 138 shares during the period. Edgestream Partners L.P. acquired a new position in Toll Brothers during the 1st quarter valued at about $8,215,000. Janus Henderson Group PLC boosted its stake in Toll Brothers by 13.3% during the 1st quarter. Janus Henderson Group PLC now owns 528,903 shares of the construction company's stock valued at $72,209,000 after purchasing an additional 62,168 shares during the period. Bull Harbor Capital LLC acquired a new position in Toll Brothers during the 1st quarter valued at about $466,000. Finally, Arkadios Wealth Advisors boosted its stake in Toll Brothers by 8.6% during the 1st quarter. Arkadios Wealth Advisors now owns 2,543 shares of the construction company's stock valued at $347,000 after purchasing an additional 202 shares during the period. 91.76% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Insider Transactions at Toll Brothers

In other Toll Brothers news, Director Stephen F. East sold 1,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, April 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $139.70, for a total transaction of $139,700.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 13,442 shares of the company's stock, valued at $1,877,847.40. The trade was a 6.92% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. 1.37% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Toll Brothers News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Toll Brothers this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded Toll Brothers to outperform from market perform and raised its price target to $161, implying meaningful upside from recent levels.
• Positive Sentiment: Zacks Research lifted its FY2026, Q2 2027, Q4 2027, and FY2027 earnings estimates for Toll Brothers, suggesting analysts see stronger profitability ahead. Analyst estimate updates for Toll Brothers
• Positive Sentiment: Toll Brothers announced new community activity, including a model home grand opening at Santa Rita Ranch in Texas and a final sales opportunity at Skye Canyon in Las Vegas, signaling continued demand and active home delivery/marketing efforts. Model Home Grand Opening at Santa Rita Ranch Final Opportunity at Skye Canyon
• Positive Sentiment: Another company update highlighted a final opportunity at University Park in Palm Desert and an award for Toll Brothers at Marsh Harbor, reinforcing the company’s luxury brand and execution in key communities. University Park Final Opportunity Best of Show Award at Marsh Harbor
• Neutral Sentiment: A market video commentary labeled Toll Brothers as an outperformer in housing but suggested it may be due for a pullback; this is opinion-based and not a fundamental change. The Big 3: TOL, DAL, MS
• Negative Sentiment: Zacks also trimmed some near-term and longer-term estimates, including Q1 2027 and Q1 2028, and slightly lowered FY2027 earnings expectations, which may temper enthusiasm around the stock.

About Toll Brothers

Toll Brothers, Inc is a publicly traded homebuilding company that focuses on designing and constructing luxury residential properties. The company's core business encompasses a broad range of housing products, including custom single-family homes, upscale condominium communities and rental apartment ventures. Toll Brothers emphasizes high-end finishes and architectural craftsmanship, positioning itself in the premium segment of the U.S. housing market.

In addition to traditional homebuilding, Toll Brothers operates specialized divisions to address evolving consumer preferences.

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