After Cooling Off, On Holding May Be Ready to Sprint Higher

Key Points

• On Holding’s Q4 2025 results showed strong, broad-based growth across channels, categories, and regions.
• Fiscal 2026 guidance came in light, but analysts largely view it as conservative and still expect outperformance.
• Analyst sentiment and institutional activity suggest support near key technical levels and potential upside.

On Holding's NYSE: ONON share price has struggled amid fears of slowing growth, valuation concerns, and the impact of tariffs, but the selling is coming to an end. Q4 2025 results were strong, with growth holding up across channels and categories. While 2026 guidance fell short of the consensus, the company forecasts another strong year, and analysts expect outperformance. 

The analysts’ response suggests that the guidance miss is deliberate; the company typically sets a low target and easily surpasses it. As it stands, On Holdings expects to sustain a solid 20%+ growth pace in the coming year, driven by strengths in all segments and retail categories. 

The impact on sentiment trends was minimal. Data from MarketBeat shows coverage rising and sentiment firming, with 25 analysts covering the stock and an 84% Buy-side bias toward the Moderate Buy rating. The price target is also bullish, steady despite the March revisions, forecasting an approximately 40% upside from the critical support target. The critical support target is a long-term exponential moving average near $41.30, where support has been present in prior periods.

Support is evident in the analysts’ trends and institutional activity. Analysts' data show coverage has steadily increased alongside the price target and institutional holdings, which are rapidly growing. The institutional group accumulated ONON stock three of four quarters in 2025 and the first two months of Q1 2026, ramping activity in Q1 to record highs as the price action retreated. This reveals a solid support base and tailwind, likely to drive this market higher over time. The only question is when the rebound may begin, and it might begin before mid-year. Assuming the company’s guidance is overly low, the next visible catalyst is mid-May, when the Q1 2026 earnings are released. 

On Holdings Tanks on Robust Results and Growth Outlook

On Holdings’ Q4 was as solid as they come, with revenue up approximately 34% and slightly ahead of the consensus forecast. The strength was driven by a 31% increase in wholesale channels and a 30% increase in higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC), underpinned by 21% growth in core shoe sales, 38% in apparel, and 117% in accessories. Regionally, Asia-Pacific (APAC) was the strongest, up 85%, followed by a 21.3% increase in the Americas, and a tepid 2.5% increase in emerging markets, Europe, and Africa (EMEA). 

The margin news is mixed but ultimately bullish for investors. The company logged a significant, but less-than-expected, decline in net income margin due to aggressive investment and foreign exchange (FX) headwinds. However, it is offset by record-setting gross margins and an accelerated 31.8% increase in EBITDA. The problem with the share price in early March is that the guidance fell short of expectations, and fears of slowing and margin plateaus gripped the retail market. 

On Holdings Builds Value for Investors

There are no red flags on the On Holdings balance sheet. The company is in a strong capital position, well-capitalized and has net cash relative to debt. Equity, the measure of shareholder value, is also rising, up by 17% in 2025, and is expected to continue growing in the upcoming year. The company has not yet returned capital to investors, choosing instead to invest in growth, but it is on track to do so in the coming years. 

Catalysts in 2026 include strong apparel sales, which underpin growth, revenue durability, and margins; a focus on DTC channels; and improving brand awareness. On Holdings engages with top athletes, leveraging their talents and its premium positioning to tell targeted stories that motivate consumers. DTC is also a risk, as it can drive growth and margin while alienating wholesale channels, as Nike’s NYSE: NKE failure shows. Other risks include FX headwinds and the potential for slowing growth. 

Price action has been mixed since the release. The release triggered a massive price drop, in turn spurring a buying spree. Activity since then has reflected resistance near the short-term 30-day exponential moving average (EMA), which may cap gains in the near term. Long-term, ONON is poised to rebound and may spring higher once begun.