Amazon: Why May Is the Last Month to Get the Stock at a Discount

Key Points

• Amazon has rallied nearly 30% since April and is showing no signs of slowing.
• Easing U.S.-China trade tensions have removed a major overhang and re-energized the bull case.
• Analysts are calling for a major upside, with targets as high as $305 very much in play.

Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN closed just above $205 on Friday, marking a sharp recovery of nearly 30% since its April low. The latest burst of momentum has come on the back of improving trade relations between the U.S. and China, a development with direct implications for the tech giant’s business model.

Now trading near its highest levels since February, the stock is regaining its leadership position in the market, and there’s growing reason to believe that May could be the last chance to buy it around the $200 level. 

Much of the rebound was triggered by news earlier this month that the U.S. and China had agreed to revise certain tariffs temporarily while broader trade negotiations continued. Amazon was one of the immediate beneficiaries, jumping close to 10% in a single session and attracting heavy institutional interest.

A Direct Boost From Tariff Relief

Few large-cap companies are as directly exposed to trade policy as Amazon. Tariffs on Chinese imports raise costs across Amazon’s vast e-commerce platform, affecting both its own retail operations and the network of third-party sellers who now account for roughly 60% of sales on the site.

These cost pressures ultimately feed through to consumers and can hurt demand.

Moving production away from China isn’t a quick fix either. Analysts have consistently pointed out that relocating manufacturing operations is a lengthy, expensive process, which is why tariff relief has an outsized impact on sentiment and future margin expectations.

Amazon had even considered displaying additional tariff costs in addition to product prices for transparency, though that idea was abandoned due to political pressure.

With trade tensions easing, Amazon gets a near-term margin boost and longer-term stability. That’s helped remove one of the biggest overhangs on the stock and has given analysts reasons to be even more bullish on Amazon’s potential. 

Analysts See Significant Upside for AMZN 

In the past few weeks alone, JMP Securities, UBS Group, Tigress Financial, and Citi have all issued bullish reports on Amazon, maintaining Buy or equivalent ratings. Tigress Financial stands out with a $305 price target, which implies nearly 50% upside from Friday’s close.

Achieving that level would break through recent resistance and carry Amazon well past its all-time high near the $240 mark. 

So what’s driving that optimism? Analysts are pointing to a mix of improving macro conditions, Amazon’s leadership in cloud and advertising, and its ongoing cost discipline across logistics and fulfillment.

Recent earnings have confirmed margin expansion in key areas, and with consumer demand holding up, the setup is increasingly attractive.

The Technicals Support the Rally

From a technical perspective, Amazon’s chart looks strong. The MACD remains in a bullish configuration, and the RSI sits around 60 - elevated but far from overbought. The stock is riding above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with conviction, and volume has picked up on up days.

Broader market trends are also supportive. The S&P 500 has been steadily recovering from its early-year dip, and risk appetite is returning to growth stocks, particularly those with proven earnings power. Amazon ticks all the right boxes here, and the technical setup suggests further gains are well within reach.

Why the Clock May Be Ticking

Amazon has made a big move off the lows, but the quality and sustainability of that move stand out. This isn’t just a short squeeze or reactionary rally; it’s a fundamentally supported surge backed by margin expansion, improving macro conditions, and growing analyst conviction.

If current tailwinds persist, May could represent the last window for investors to pick up shares close to the $200 level. The upside case has rarely looked stronger with trade overhangs lifting and price targets clustering around $300.