Critical Metals: Sizing Up This Tiny Rare-Earth Stock Making Big Moves

Key Points

• Rare-earth companies have garnered significant interest from governments and investors alike, with stocks like MP Materials soaring.
• Critical Metals is one of the smaller and less discussed players in this space, but is sitting on a huge rare-earth asset.
• The company's has recently improved its cash standing and signed key agreements, but real revenue is years away.

Among the various corners of the stock market, few have attracted as much attention as rare-earth element companies. This comes as the global economy looks to loosen China’s grip on this market by investing in non-Chinese supply chains.

Notably, the U.S. government has extended, or could soon extend, funding to companies such as MP Materials NYSE: MP and USA Rare Earth NASDAQ: USAR. Overall, these stocks have delivered returns of more than 250% and 80% since the start of 2025, respectively.

However, there is a much smaller player in this space worth keeping an eye on, Critical Metals NASDAQ: CRML. The stock has put up much smaller gains, up over 30% since the start of 2025. This comes as Critical Metals is an earlier stage of its journey compared to MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. Nonetheless, the company has amassed a set of critical assets and partnerships that could make it a real player in the rare-earth industry long-term. However, as an early-stage firm, it also faces big risks.

The Tanbreez Project: Critical Metal’s Crown Jewel

Critical Metal’s key asset is its Tanbreez Project in southern Greenland. Tanbreez is one of the world’s largest hard rock rare earth deposits, with a particularly strong concentration of heavy rare earths. Heavy rare earths are notable due to their use in some of the most advanced technological applications. This includes defense guidance systems, EV motors, and wind turbine generators. Because of this, and their rarity compared to light rare earths, “heavies” also fetch much higher prices.

However, actual mining activity at Tanbreez has not yet begun, and Critical Metals does not expect mining to begin for multiple years. Currently, Critical Metals is targeting first ore production during Q4 2028 or Q1 2029. The company is also targeting concentrate export by Q3 2029—which would conceivably mark the start of product revenue from the site.

Thus, Critical Metals does not generate revenue today. Although, it recorded around $560,000 in “other income” during its latest fiscal year 2025, which ended in calendar Q2 2025. Note that, as a small foreign company, Critical Metals does not provide quarterly financial statements. The company burned around $14.5 million in cash, ending the period with $7.3 million in cash and equivalents. With revenue generation still far off, accumulating funding is key to Critical Metals' ability to continue operating.

Critical Improves Cash Position, Announces Multiple Offtake Deals

Importantly, Critical Metals has been able to source financing since the last reporting. It entered into an agreement to receive $50 million in gross proceeds in October 2025. Then, in a May announcement, the company noted that its standalone cash balance was approximately $124 million. This would give the firm a solid amount of cash in relation to its cash burn of $14.5 million.

Meanwhile, Critical Metals has made several moves to secure its strategic position and future demand. First off, the Greenland Government approved a transfer that massively increased Critical’s ownership in Tanbreez from less than 50% to 92.5%. Markets saw this as an important step forward, with CRML shares rising 35% as Critical consolidated ownership around Tanbreez. The company went on to announce the acquisition of European Lithium in an $835 million stock transaction. Upon closing, this would bring the company’s ownership in Tanbreez to 100%.

Other key developments sit on the production and demand side. The company announced a non-binding agreement with a Saudi Arabian conglomerate to construct and operate an up to $1.5 billion processing facility in the country. The agreement also includes offtake rights for 25% of Tanbreez’s rare earth concentrate production. However, these rights now stand lower than 25%, as that figure reflected Critical’s Tanbreez ownership before it increased its stake in the project.

The company then went on to sign a 15-year binding agreement with REalloys NASDAQ: ALOY. With this, REalloys will purchase 15% of Tanbreez’s annual concentrate production, based on Critical’s increased ownership percentage of 92.5%.

What to Watch Next: Critical Metal’s Annual Filing

In summary, Critical Metals has recently seen several positive developments. The company has significantly strengthened its cash position, allowing it to continue funding the advancement of Tanbreez. Additionally, multiple partners have lined up to eventually offtake Tanbreez's supply, providing a level of future demand security.

Still, Critical Metal’s success hinges on getting Tanbreez up and running, and there is no guarantee that will happen. The mining industry is notoriously hard to navigate, with developing new sites being a lengthy process subject to environmental and regulatory setbacks. However, diversifying away from China in rare earths has become a clear priority for governments and enterprises alike. Considering these competing factors, Critical Metals is a very high-risk but high-potential stock.

The company’s fiscal year 2026 annual filing, or its 20-F, will be crucial to monitor. Critical Metals typically releases its annual filing in October. This document should reveal where the firm’s cash position sits after its latest funding agreements, acquisitions, and expenses.