Gap Stock Recovering After Earnings Slide, AI News Helps

Key Points

• Gap shares have been volatile in recent weeks, falling more than 14% after the company’s early March earnings report before rebounding as investors regained confidence in the retailer’s improving fundamentals.
• The fourth-quarter report showed continued progress in Gap’s turnaround, with 3% comparable sales growth, a second straight year of top-line gains, and a strong balance sheet, although tariff pressure and weakness at the Athleta brand weighed on margins and sentiment.
• Wall Street remains generally optimistic, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating and a $30.62 price target implying about 19% upside, as investors look for the company’s multi-year turnaround strategy to support further gains.

Gap Inc. NYSE: GAP has been a bit of a roller coaster lately. Shares dropped sharply in early March following the company’s earnings report before regaining some ground as investors seemed to shrug off the initial reaction and regain confidence in the retailer’s improving fundamentals. The stock got another lift this week after reports that Gap plans to integrate its brands into Google’s Gemini AI platform gave Wall Street another reason to be optimistic.

The recent swings show how catalyst-driven the stock has become, with shares moving sharply on earnings and headlines as investors react to the company’s progress in its multi-year turnaround strategy and try to gauge whether the improvements can keep the rally going.

Gap has seen plenty of ups and downs over the years. The stock hit a rough patch in 2022 and early 2023 as the company struggled with competition and uneven performance across its brands. Things started to turn around in 2023, however, after Gap brought in a new CEO and laid out a plan to fix the business. Investors liked what they heard, and the stock began trending higher.

In 2025 and into early 2026, the stock staged another strong run. After hitting a 52-week low around $17 in early April, shares climbed steadily as several better-than-expected quarters and stronger performance across much of the company’s portfolio helped push the stock higher. By late February, shares were trading near $28, up roughly 70% from the April low.

Fourth-Quarter Earnings Rattle Investors

Things went south on March 5, when the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that came in just shy of expectations. Earnings of 45 cents per share missed estimates by a penny, while revenue of $4.24 billion was roughly in line.

In many ways, it was a solid quarter. The company posted its second straight year of top-line growth, with comparable sales up 3%. Gap ended 2025 with about $3 billion in cash, its strongest balance sheet in nearly two decades, allowing the company to raise its dividend by about 6% and approve a $1 billion share repurchase program.

There were a few sore spots, though. Tariffs cut gross margin by about 200 basis points during the quarter, and the company’s Athleta brand remained weak, with sales down about 11% year over year.

Looking ahead, Gap expects another 150 to 200 basis-point hit from tariffs in the first quarter and sees mid-single-digit declines at Athleta in the first half of 2026 as it works to reposition the brand. Even so, its fiscal 2026 guidance was better than expected. The company's expected earnings of $2.20 to $2.35 per share were above the consensus estimate of $2.15, and revenue of $15.7 billion to $15.9 billion topped the $15.4 billion estimate.

Despite the strong full-year outlook, the earnings report and outlook rattled investors, sending shares down more than 14%. The selloff didn’t last long, though, and the stock has since moved higher, finishing up in nine of the last 12 trading sessions. Shares are now trading around $25, up more than 7% since the earnings report.

AI News Gives the Stock A Boost

Investors got another dose of optimism this week after CNBC reported that shoppers using Gemini to search for clothing will soon be able to buy items directly through the AI platform. This makes Gap the first major fashion retailer to allow consumers to check out without being redirected to the retailer’s website. Gap is also testing an AI-based sizing tool designed to help online shoppers pick the right fit.

The move comes as retailers seek new ways to leverage AI to drive online sales and keep customers engaged. It’s still too early to know how much the AI integration will affect results, but the roughly 3% jump in the stock after the report suggests Wall Street liked the development.

Wall Street Seems Confident in Gap's Turnaround Plan

Wall Street has been encouraged by the progress of Gap’s three-stage turnaround plan. The first phase, which has played out over the past two years, focused on fixing the fundamentals. The company says it is now entering the next phase, building momentum, with the final stage focused on accelerating growth.

So far, the plan appears to be working. Gap posted several better-than-expected quarters in 2024 and 2025, with improving comps, stronger margins, and a healthier balance sheet.

Analysts seem optimistic as the company continues to execute its strategy. Gap has a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with 12 Buy ratings and five Holds. Citigroup and JPMorgan raised their price targets after the fourth-quarter report, although Weiss Ratings downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.

The current 12-month consensus price target of $30.62 suggests about 22% upside from recent levels. Valuation also points to potential room for gains, as Gap trades at lower multiples than much of the retail industry, with a P/E near 11 versus about 17 for the sector. The price-to-sales ratio of around 0.62 is also below the industry’s roughly 1.12.

While the stock could move higher if fundamentals continue to improve and the turnaround keeps gaining traction, the recent pattern of trading on headlines suggests the ride may stay bumpy until Gap can show more consistent growth.