Iran Ceasefire Trade: 3 Energy Stocks to Own if Oil Falls to $80

Key Points

• Marathon Petroleum and Valero benefit from their ability to refine heavy crude as global oil flows shift.
• Phillips 66 offers diversified exposure through refining, pipelines, chemicals, and marketing operations.
• All three energy stocks combine attractive valuations with growing dividend payouts and strong analyst support.

The latest inflation numbers show the impact of higher energy prices on the U.S. economy. Even with many oil companies delivering record production, the supply-demand picture is creating higher prices for goods and services. It’s also good for energy stocks, many of which have reached multi-year highs.

However, as difficult as it may be to consider, at some point, oil prices will come down, and they could come down quickly. That’s why now is the time to consider the energy stocks to own when oil prices begin to move lower.

The correlation between energy stocks and the broader market illustrates the different expectations of traders and investors. Traders are chasing alpha, and that means moving in and out of oil and gas stocks to capitalize on fluctuating oil prices.

Unfortunately, consumers won’t feel that impact right away. Even if oil moves to $80, it will still be trading nearly 20% higher than it was before the conflict started. And many industry experts anticipate that oil prices will rise due to increased infrastructure spending in the United States.

That’s tough for household budgets, but it could be a positive signal for investors. Here are three stocks that offer a combination of short-term growth and long-term value.

Marathon Petroleum: Built to Profit From Heavy Crude No Matter Where It Comes From

If nothing else, investors have been getting a geography lesson that explains where, and how, oil gets to market. 

That’s a core reason to consider Marathon Petroleum Corp. NYSE: MPC. Marathon is a downstream refiner, and one of the company's tactical advantages is its ability to refine heavy crude.

Heavy crude comes to the United States from Canada and, in recent months, from Venezuela. Marathon has the equipment to refine this thicker, sour crude, which the world will need. 

Any potential benefit from increased Venezuelan crude flows likely would not yet have been fully reflected in Marathon’s first-quarter earnings report—which was a strong beat on the top and bottom lines—but would likely be evident in next quarter's report.

Since the earnings release, analysts have been raising their price targets for MPC, with the highest revised target of $291 coming from Goldman Sachs. That number is over 10% higher than the consensus price target of $259.

MPC trades at around 8x forward earnings. That multiple is very attractive when many oil and gas stocks are trading at a premium. Plus, investors get an attractive dividend that’s been increasing by an average of around 9.9% in the last three years.

Valero Energy: Positioned to Capture Global Crude Rerouting

The case for Valero Energy Corp. NYSE: VLO is strategic and tactical.

Companies and countries aren’t standing idle as the Strait of Hormuz is closed. They’re looking for alternate supply sources, and that means sending tankers to the Gulf of America, where Valero is happy to refill them. Valero is another company that can refine heavy, sour crude.

Valero’s Q1 2026 earnings report showed strong year-over-year gains on the top and bottom lines. But, as was the case with Marathon, the potential benefit from rerouted crude shipments and stronger export demand likely won’t become evident until next quarter’s results.

VLO stock is up over 50% year-to-date, which has pushed the stock above the consensus price target of $237.94.

However, since the company’s earnings report was released on April 30, some analysts have raised their price targets. TD Cowen has the highest price target of $276, implying an upside of more than 15% from the consensus. 

Valero investors also get a safe dividend that now pays $4.80 per share annually after Valero increased the quarterly payout by over 6% in January 2026.

Phillips 66: A Midstream Powerhouse With Room to Run

Phillips 66 NYSE: PSX brings something to the table that pure-play refiners don't: a diversified business model that spans refining, midstream, chemicals, and marketing.

That mix gives PSX a measure of earnings stability that can act as a cushion when refining margins tighten.

And with the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaping global crude flows, Phillips 66's Gulf Coast refining assets and extensive pipeline network put it squarely in the path of opportunity.

Like the other names on this list, Phillips 66 delivered a strong Q1 earnings report that doesn’t yet account for any potential benefits from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.

As noted, this could be a double-edged sword for Phillips 66, but analysts have a consensus price target of $185.61, suggesting a potential upside of around 8%.

PSX trades at an attractive forward multiple of around 10x earnings, and about 6% below its consensus price target. Plus, it pays a dividend that’s been growing for 12 consecutive years.