Nu Holdings Stock Presses Higher—Breakout on Deck?

Key Points

• Nu Holdings delivered strong Q3 earnings with rising ARPAC, record ROE, and customer growth reaching 127 million.
• High engagement, expanding credit portfolios, and improving efficiency ratios signal continued profitable scale for NU stock.
• With bullish technical indicators and a consensus price target of $17.33, NU stock may be positioned for a breakout above its all-time high.

On two separate occasions in the last month, Nu Holdings Ltd. NYSE: NU stock has reached a new all-time high (ATH). Both times, sellers rushed in to squelch the rally. However, despite a tepid post-earnings reaction, the third time may give the stock the boost it needs to push past previous levels of resistance at the ATH.

After an initial downturn, NU stock is up a little over 1% in early trading the day after the report. Investors may have expected more, but the muted response is likely a reaction to the overall bearish sentiment in the broader market, particularly for a digital bank and financial services company that is promoting its AI-first approach.

A Good Earnings Report on a Bad Day for the Market

Sometimes, post-earnings price action can be explained by looking at the broader market. Investors were clearly in a selling mood the day of Nu’s earnings report. So, it would have taken a blowout report to impress them. In fact, having NU stock trading flat in early trading could be seen as a win.

The report was strong by almost every measure. The headline numbers showed earnings per share (EPS) of 17 cents on revenue of $4.17 billion. That beat estimates for an EPS of 15 cents on revenue of $3.96 billion.

Those numbers were even stronger on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. EPS was 54% higher than the 11 cents reported in November 2024, and revenue was 41% higher than the $2.94 billion reported last year.

Nu’s Flywheel Strategy Continues to Deliver Profitable Scale

The earnings results highlight the company’s ability to continue scaling while expanding profitability through its flywheel model.

Nu’s core banking flywheel: more customers, rising revenue per customer, and declining cost to serve was on full display. Active customers increased to 127 million, a 17% year-over-year rise, but what matters more to investors is that engagement remains exceptionally high.

The fintech company also reported an 83% activity rate, indicating that the overwhelming majority of customers generate revenue every month. An 83% activity rate is unusually high for a digital bank, suggesting that Nu isn’t just adding customers; it’s consistently monetizing them.

With the overwhelming majority of its 127 million users generating revenue every month, Nu benefits from predictable growth, more substantial operating leverage, and a customer base that is far stickier than most fintech peers.

At the same time, Nu continues to drive deeper monetization. The average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) increased to $13, up from $11 a year ago. That growth is being supported by a credit portfolio that expanded 42% on an FX-neutral basis, with secured lending leading the way.

Deposits grew 34% year-over-year, giving Nu a healthy funding base and a loan-to-deposit ratio of just 46%, underscoring the bank’s conservative balance sheet posture.

Nu also showed strong credit discipline. Both 15–90 day and 90+ day delinquency ratios tracked in line with historical seasonality, and coverage ratios remain well above 200%. Combined with an improving efficiency ratio of 27.7%, Nu is translating operating leverage into real earnings power—evidenced by a record 31% ROE and nearly $783 million in net income.

NU Stock Is Signaling a Reversal

The NU stock chart had a bullish setup before the company’s earnings report. The relative strength indicator (RSI) had pulled back into oversold territory, and the MACD line was stabilizing after a multi-week downtrend. Both of those are conditions that often precede a bullish momentum shift.

The bullish report may provide the fuel to push NU stock higher. But investors may have to overcome some short-term bearish momentum. The prior ATH near $16.50-$17 was supported by an apparent surge in volume, something that’s been missing in recent trading sessions.

A meaningful pickup in buying volume will be a key signal that the stock is ready to retake, and potentially hold, a new high.

They should also pay close attention to what analysts have to say about the report. The NU Holdings analyst forecasts on MarketBeat give the stock a consensus price target of $17.33, a 10.9% increase from its closing price on Nov. 13. As analysts begin to weigh in, the stock may move sharply higher.