Ollie's Stock Has Lagged Despite Earnings Beats—What's Holding It Back?

Key Points

• Ollie's Bargain Outlet beat first-quarter earnings expectations by 4 cents per share but missed revenue estimates by roughly $2.7 million.
• Ollie's shares have fallen nearly 26% over the past year, significantly underperforming discount peers Ross Stores, Burlington, and TJX Companies.
• Seventeen analysts covering Ollie's hold a consensus Moderate Buy rating, with an average 12-month price target of roughly $125, implying more than 40% upside.

Consumers have continued to seek out bargains as higher prices for everyday necessities have strained many household budgets.

For years, Ollie's Bargain Outlet NASDAQ: OLLI was a big beneficiary of the trend, with shares climbing to an all-time high last summer as investors embraced the discount retailer's value-focused model.

Since then, however, the stock has pulled back sharply. Despite a series of earnings beats and strong stock performance from many of its discount retail peers, investors have remained cautious on Ollie's, raising questions about what it will take for the stock to regain momentum.

Ollie's Earnings Beat Again, But Revenue Falls Slightly Short

Ollie's most recent earnings report did little to stoke investor enthusiasm for the stock. On June 3, the company reported first-quarter earnings of 91 cents per share, increasing from 75 cents per share in the year-ago period and topping Wall Street expectations by 4 cents. The quarter marked another earnings beat for the company, extending its streak of better-than-expected earnings.

Revenue came in at approximately $659 million, up more than 14% from the prior-year period, but roughly $2.7 million shy of analyst expectations. While Ollie's has continued to deliver year-over-year sales growth, revenue has not consistently exceeded Wall Street expectations.

Comparable-store sales increased 1.7% during the quarter, while gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 41.9%, exceeding the company's expectations. Ollie's continued to expand its footprint, opening 27 new stores during the quarter. The company also repurchased $53 million of stock during the period.

Despite the solid results, the company said it faced headwinds as the quarter progressed, including unseasonable weather that pressured certain merchandise categories and higher fuel prices that impacted traffic.

Ollie's Tweaks Full-Year Outlook

The company also tweaked its full-year guidance, slightly lowering its revenue expectations while raising its earnings forecast.

Ollie's now expects net sales of $2.98 billion to $3.0 billion, compared with its previous outlook of $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are now expected to be between $4.45 to $4.55, compared with the prior forecast of $4.40 to $4.50.

During the earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Robert Helm discussed the updated outlook, saying, "Solid sales growth, strong margins, controlled expenses, and the stepped-up buyback all support earnings growth this year."

He added, however, that consumer sentiment and weather remain factors. "We are cognizant of the state of consumer rights right now. They are prioritizing their spending around their needs and driving a little less if they can," he said, adding, "Weather is still a bit of a lingering factor, and we don't have the benefit of higher tax refunds to offset some of these pressures in the second quarter."

Stock Has Struggled Since Hitting All-Time High

Wall Street's initial reaction to the earnings report and updated outlook was muted. The stock rose less than 1% following the release; however, shares have gained roughly 6% since then.

The stock had an impressive run between 2022 and 2025, rising from under $40 in March 2022 to an all-time high above $140 in August 2025. By the end of 2025, it was trading around $110 and continued to trend lower. Recently, shares were trading around $85.

Over the past year, the stock has fallen nearly 26%. Shares are down roughly 22% year to date.

Ollie's Stock Is Lagging Other Discount Retailers

The stock's underperformance is also notable given the strong performance of several other value-oriented retailers.

Shares of Ross Stores Inc. NASDAQ: ROST have soared approximately 80% over the past year and more than 30% year to date. Burlington Stores Inc. NYSE: BURL is up roughly 42% over the past 12 months and 16% year to date, while TJX Companies Inc. NYSE: TJX has gained about 35% over the last year and nearly 9% year to date.

One factor that may be working in Ollie's favor following its valuation. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 21X, well below Ross Stores' multiple of about 33X, Burlington's roughly 35X, and TJX's more than 32X.

Despite Lowered Price Targets, Analysts See Significant Upside

Wall Street remains largely bullish on Ollie's. Among the 17 analysts currently covering the company, the consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with 14 Buy ratings and three Hold ratings.

The average 12-month price target is roughly $125, implying potential upside of more than 40% from recent trading levels. Price targets range from a low of $87 to a high of $157. Several analysts have lowered their targets over the last two months, though most have maintained positive ratings.

While Ollie's continues to grow sales, beat earnings expectations, expand its store base, and generate healthy margins, the steady decline since last summer's peak suggests investors may be taking a wait-and-see approach until the company can deliver more consistent growth. Still, with analysts largely bullish on the stock, a valuation below several discount-oriented peers, and continued consumer pressure driving demand for value, Ollie's may be worth a closer look for investors seeking opportunities in the discount retail space.