Palantir Breaks Out: Why PLTR Stock May Rally Into Year-End

Key Points

• Palantir extends its AI partnership with Lumen Technologies, expanding its commercial portfolio.
• The company signs a new letter of intent with Poland’s Ministry of Defense, strengthening its European defense presence.
• PLTR stock hits new all-time highs ahead of its November 3 earnings report after gaining 162% in 2025.

Palantir Technologies NASDAQ: PLTR has consistently delivered strong results for investors in the past two years. That consistency has also been seen in the PLTR stock price. For several earnings cycles, the company’s stock price has formed a consolidation pattern in the lead-up to earnings. In every case, this has been an example of the stock taking a breather in preparation for the main event, the quarterly earnings report.

After these reports, PLTR stock has pushed to new highs. The stock formed a similar pattern in October. However, news on both the government and commercial sides of the company’s business sent PLTR stock to new all-time highs before its Nov. 3 earnings report.

That means that if the company delivers another strong report, the stock may be ready for a year-end rally on top of its 162% gain in 2025.

Palantir and Lumen: A Game-Changing Partnership

In late October, Palantir announced two significant deals. The first was a multi-million-dollar extension of the company’s partnership with Lumen Technologies NYSE: LUMN. This is another blue-chip enterprise that Palantir has in its growing commercial portfolio, which grew 55% year-over-year in the company’s most recent quarter.

The partnership is a natural fit because data integration and AI-driven analytics are becoming increasingly critical in the telecommunications and network infrastructure sector. Lumen plans to use Palantir’s Foundry and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) to enhance its network operations, optimize capacity, and potentially improve cybersecurity and customer experience through predictive analytics.

A Deal That Expands Palantir’s European Footprint

If there’s one area where the bears have a case against Palantir, it’s in the area of international growth. Some of this is to be expected. Palantir promotes Western values at a time when many of those values are unpopular with world governments.

So, it’s worth noting that on Oct. 27, Poland’s defense minister and Palantir chief executive officer (CEO) Alex Karp signed a letter of intent in Warsaw. The country is seeking to enhance its collaboration with Palantir in areas such as data integration, AI, and cybersecurity.

At this point, this partnership is just a matter of words on paper. However, Poland’s Ministry of National Defense recently formed a collaboration with Anduril on cruise missiles. This highlights the country’s push to modernize its defense apparatus.

Skeptics will point out that Poland allocates nearly 4.8% to 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense. That makes it one of NATO’s largest spenders and likely to be one of Palantir’s largest contracts on the continent. However, many foreign countries are aligning with this version of the Trump administration. One example of this came earlier this year when NATO adopted Palantir’s Maven Smart System.

Analyst Targets and Institutional Momentum Keep PLTR in Focus

The Palantir analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show Bank of America with the highest price target for PLTR stock at $215. However, the consensus price target of approximately $142 suggests the stock is about 28% above what many analysts believe is its fair value.

However, analysts' price targets are merely estimates, regardless of how informed they may be. In the case of Palantir, the consensus price target has been moving sharply higher over the past year and a half. In many cases, it’s not because analysts feel better about Palantir’s valuation.

Like most technology stocks, it's got a frothy feel to it. However, they also recognize that it is not worthwhile to fight the trend.

That momentum started with retail investors, but it’s now firmly in the hands of institutional investors. Palantir’s inclusion in the S&P 500 and, more recently, the Nasdaq-100, ensures that many fund managers have no choice but to include PLTR stock.

Adding to the momentum case is Palantir’s market cap, which is now over $471 billion. That means it will occupy an increasingly larger portion of market-cap-weighted indexes.