Why Amazon May Never Dip Below $200 Again

Key Points

• Amazon jumped 8% Monday and is now up nearly 30% since April lows.
• Improving macro backdrop and bullish analyst ratings are lifting sentiment.
• $200 could soon be a permanent floor as momentum builds into the summer.

Tech giant Amazon.com Inc's NASDAQ: AMZN shares surged 8% on Monday, hitting their highest level since March and continuing a sharp rebound off the April lows. The stock is now up nearly 30% in just a few weeks and has reclaimed the $200 level—a threshold that's quickly looking like it may become a permanent floor.

This latest leg higher comes amid a wave of bullish sentiment from both analysts and investors, driven by strong earnings, improving macro conditions, and a textbook technical setup. With momentum building and price targets climbing as high as $305, it's worth asking: Will last week come to be seen as the last time Amazon ever traded below $200?

Consistent Earnings Beats Are Setting the Tone

One of the key drivers of this rally is Amazon's recent run of earnings, a string of consistently strong results that have exceeded analyst expectations across both revenue and profit. The latest report, delivered in early May, extended that streak with impressive beats driven by strength in AWS, advertising, and improving retail margins.

Margin expansion, in particular, has become a key theme for the bull case. Amazon is not just growing top-line revenue; it's doing so by improving operational leverage. Over the past two years, cost-cutting is paying off, and AWS, once seen as a slowing giant, has returned to growth mode, lifting expectations for the remainder of 2024.

Technicals Are Flashing Bullish

Amazon's chart is starting to look as good as its income statement. The stock has now broken out above its March highs and is trending firmly upward. RSI is rising, but still below overbought levels, and MACD momentum continues to widen - classic signals that the bulls are in control and that there's room to run.

The move above $200 is particularly important from a psychological and technical standpoint. That level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times over the past year. Holding above it now, with conviction, opens the door for a new leg higher and sets a strong base for future rallies.

Analysts Are Piling On

Wall Street sentiment has also turned sharply in Amazon's favor. In the past two weeks alone, firms like JMP Securities, US Group, Tigress Financial, and Citigroup have reiterated or upgraded their bullish positions, with price targets ranging as high as $305. That top-end target implies nearly 50% upside from Monday's close - an extraordinary call for a company of Amazon's size and maturity.

Citigroup specifically cited Amazon's leadership in the cloud, ongoing margin improvements, and renewed advertising momentum as major levers that can drive accelerated earnings growth. Others have emphasized Amazon's dominant position in AI infrastructure through AWS as a potential undervalued catalyst.

Macro Winds at Amazon's Back

Beyond company-specific fundamentals, the macro environment is beginning to lean more risk-on.

A return of confidence in markets following news of potential trade deals involving the UK and China has helped ease one of Amazon's biggest historical headwinds: tariffs.

Amazon is particularly sensitive to trade dynamics because of its reliance on Chinese imports, not just for its retail operations but its vast network of third-party sellers, who account for 60% of sales on the platform.

Tariff hikes directly raise costs for those sellers and their consumers, squeezing margins and demand.

While Amazon briefly considered showing tariff costs directly on product pages for transparency, the idea was ultimately scrapped due to political sensitivity.

However, with trade tensions easing and manufacturing diversification still being a long process for many sellers, stability on this front offers a meaningful tailwind heading into the back half of the year.

Amazon Stock Forecast 

Amazon has recaptured the $200 level with some confidence, backed by improving fundamentals, strong technical momentum, and an increasingly bullish analyst crowd.

With macro headwinds easing and AI, cloud, and advertising growth kicking in again, there's a growing sense that the stock may have entered a new phase.

That makes this week, as the dust settles from the latest earnings and price targets reset higher, potentially the last real chance for investors to buy Amazon around the $200 mark. Ignore that signal at your own risk.