Why Simply Good Foods Stock Just Had Its Worst Day in Years

Key Points

• Shares of Simply Good Foods stock plunged over 18% after the company missed revenue estimates and cut full-year guidance.
• Quest faces rising competition, while Atkins struggles against GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
• SMPL may look cheap at 6.5X foward earnings, but ongoing headwinds suggest caution for long-term investors.

Simply Good Foods Co. NASDAQ: SMPL has a complex problem. The company is facing pressure with both its Quest and Atkins brands. But the problems are different and require different responses. Investors should know this may take more than a quarter to turn around, so SMPL may be a stock to avoid for now.

The headline numbers from its Q2 2026 earnings report were mixed. On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents beat expectations for 40 cents. But it was the current and forecasted revenue numbers that are causing the stock’s sharp decline.

Simply Good Foods posted revenue of $326.01 million, which was more than 5% below analysts’ forecasts for $343.87 million.

That was also 9.45% lower year over year (YOY). Adding to the disappointment, the company lowered its full-year revenue guidance.

It now anticipates a decline between 7% and 10%. Previously, the company had guided a range of –2% to 2%. 

Investors were quick to deliver a verdict. SMPL dropped over 18% on volume that was over six times the average. This fall brought the stock to 2017 trading levels. At such a deep discount, is the consumer staples stock a value play or a falling knife? It’s complicated. But it comes down to a company being the victim of its own success.

Quest Brand Growth Slows as Competition Heats Up

Simply Good Foods was a pioneer in the high-protein snack space with its Quest brand. The brand’s overall retail takeaway grew 2.4% in the quarter. But that was 12% lower YOY. This requires a closer look because Quest is divided into two categories: chips and bars. The chip space grew by 14%, but bar consumption dropped by 5%. 

The larger issue is that Quest was already facing competition in the bar segment. On the conference call, analysts asked about the scope of the threat from PepsiCo NASDAQ: PEP and its Doritos Protein Chips in the chips space. The answer? The threat is real, and the company is planning to allocate a significant portion of its capital expenditures to increasing capacity in this area. 

Atkins Struggles in the Age of GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs

The issue is different for the company’s Atkins brand. This is the company’s meal replacement solution. It was “the thing” before the launch of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Simply Good Foods isn’t alone. But the company is being affected as customers have a pharmaceutical alternative to the Atkins lifestyle. 

For its part, Simply Goods is trying to reposition Atkins as a complement to GLP-1 products. However, that’s a marketing problem that may take many quarters to fix, if it can be fixed at all. Illustrating that difficulty, the company lost distribution at key retailers, which was due to the company cutting back on unprofitable promotional spending. Read that again. The company had to cut back on promotions because the revenue generation wasn’t enough to offset the decline in profits. 

Rising Costs and Macro Pressures Add to Margin Concerns

Defining the threats to Quest and Atkins doesn’t make them easy to solve. Particularly when there are macroeconomic issues at play as well. For example, tariffs and rising cocoa prices drove up production costs, which directly erode earnings. 

The core issue comes down to a company that helped invent a category that, on one side, is getting crowded and on the other, is becoming unnecessary. That’s a difficult problem for investors to consider. 

It's likely to weigh on analyst sentiment as well. As of the market close on April 9, SMPL still had a consensus price target of $28.33, representing a 140% gain. But that’s deceptive, as it's based on analyst ratings over the past 12 months. The very latest data came from UBS Group on April 2. The firm reiterated a Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $16 from $23. 

That leaves far less upside for investors. More importantly, many more analysts are likely to lower their price targets in the coming days and weeks. 

Analyst Price Targets Likely Headed Lower

If investors only look at the relative strength index (RSI) for SMPL, it may be easy to conclude that the sell-off is overdone. Additionally, it looks like buyers came in at the end of the trading session. Swing traders may have an opportunity after a dip of over 18%.

However, it’s a different case for investors looking to go long. Until Simply Good Foods can show that it can reverse the slide in Atkins revenue while preventing Quest from becoming a problem, this becomes a stock that may be a better trade than an investment.