Smart Money's Big Bet on AST SpaceMobile

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile continues to set record highs after announcing an agreement with Verizon. 
• Shares of ASTS have surged 160% since breaking out on Sept. 9.  
• Big-name institutional owners—including Vanguard, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley—hold enormous positions, suggesting a long-term bullish view.

By the time the market closed on Oct. 15, AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS had set yet another intraday all-time high price of $99.26. The stock had done that in 10 out of the last 11 trading sessions dating back to Oct. 1. 

The most recent instance of ASTS’s record high is the ongoing rally that began when the company announced a commercial partnership with Verizon NYSE: VZ. The partnership will enable the communication services giant to offer space-based, direct-to-cellular services to its customers via AST SpaceMobile’s network of low-Earth orbit satellites beginning in 2026. 

The deal vaulted shares of ASTS higher, continuing a rally that has already seen the stock reach meteoric levels this year. However, as lovely as these near-term gains are, the smart money is well-positioned for significant gains over the long term.

AST SpaceMobile: Big Partnerships and Stratospheric Gains

As the company continues to prepare for its commercial launch, it is already generating revenue, albeit not much of it, despite its $34.3 billion market cap. Over the past 12 months, AST SpaceMobile’s revenue has stood at just $4.9 million. 

But much of the hype behind the stock is based on its expectations. Deals—like the agreement with Verizon and strategic partnerships with AT&T NYSE: T and Vodafone NASDAQ: VOD—suggest that the company’s revenue stream will rapidly accelerate upon its commercial launch. 

In addition to those commercial pacts, AST SpaceMobile has also entered into strategic partnerships with Japanese tech conglomerate Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY, real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, and BCE NYSE: BCE, formerly Bell Canada Enterprises and one of Canada’s largest telecommunications and median companies. 

Those agreements have resulted in lofty forecasts from analysts, which project the company to generate revenues of $830 million and $2.54 billion in 20247 and 2028, respectively. Those expectations have already materialized in AST SpaceMobile’s stock near-term performance. 

Shares have gained more than 342% so far this year, including a nearly 160% gain since breaking out of its late summer slump, which ended on Sept. 9. That builds on the back of AST SpaceMobile’s success since the company went public on Nov. 1, 2019, with its stock having gained more than 879% in less than six years. 

In the past two years alone, ASTS is up more than 3,027%. But despite those gains, the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at -40.8, as the company is not yet profitable. Nonetheless, institutional investors are taking the long approach, expecting a big bang from the Midland, Texas-based space technology company.  

The Smart Money’s Sky-High Expectations

Retail investors have welcomed those meteoric gains, which have made ASTS one of this year’s hottest stocks. But as impressively as it has performed recently, institutional investors are positioned for the long haul.

If following the money is any indication, investment banks and asset management firms alike have shown that they believe in the future of AST SpaceMobile. Major institutional owners like Vanguard, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley hold substantial positions, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook. 

Over the past 12 months, that has resulted in an incredibly disproportionate ratio between institutional inflows of $1.59 billion and just $358.16 million in institutional outflows. Much of that can be traced back to the big banks and firms, with 250 institutional buyers over the past 12 months compared to just 85 institutional sellers over the same period.  

Currently, nearly 61% of the float is held by institutional investors. And despite Vanguard, BlackRock, D.E. Shaw, and Morgan Stanley—four of the top five holders of ASTS—owning 37.78 million shares, the company’s foremost investor is Rakuten, which has 31.02 million shares.

Broad Run Investment Management, Geode Capital Management, Janus Henderson, State Street, and Susquehanna International Group round out the top 10 institutional owners, collectively holding an additional 16.05 million shares of ASTS. 

Despite Institutional Support, Analysts Are Cautious in the Short Term

Just like the rockets that will launch AST SpaceMobile’s satellites and, in the future, the satellites themselves, everything that goes up must come down. A retracement should be expected after a run-up, as the stock has enjoyed this year. 

That has factored into analysts’ short-term forecasts, with expectations that the stock will have to give back some incredible gains it has compiled over the coming year. Based on 11 analysts covering ASTS, the stock receives a 12-month average price target that represents potential downside of nearly 53% from the current share price. 

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s bears continue to pile into short positions, with more than 20% of the 204.57 million float—or roughly 41.77 million shares—currently shorted. That is a nearly 6% increase in short interest over the past month. 

But no stock goes up in a straight line. Even if the stock undergoes a series of corrections, if you follow the smart money, AST SpaceMobile looks to have a stellar future ahead of it.