AST SpaceMobile Faces Launch Risks as SpaceX Raises the Competitive Stakes

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile is advancing service readiness for intermittent coverage in the U.S., Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia before the end of 2026.
• SpaceX's plan to acquire low-band spectrum from Grain Management to boost Starlink Mobile's indoor connectivity poses a competitive threat to AST SpaceMobile and its telecom partners.
• Despite the progress, ASTS stock hit a new 52-week low amid potential BlueBird satellite delays, cautious analyst ratings, and high short interest.

On Tuesday, Oct. 20, Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS announced that it is advancing service readiness ahead of initial, intermittent coverage in key global markets before the end of 2026, including the United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia.

The announcement comes in the wake of a SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX plan to acquire low-band spectrum and boost Starlink Mobile's indoor connectivity—a move that poses a competitive threat to space stocks as well as major telecom providers, including AT&T NYSE: T and Verizon NYSE: VZ, two companies that have strategic partnerships with AST SpaceMobile.

As investors continue to search for bullish catalysts amid a flurry of headwinds, ASTS hit a new 52-week low on Oct. 23, with shares of the space-based cellular broadband network provider now down roughly 70% from their all-time high on May 28.

AST SpaceMobile Advances Toward Initial Commercial Service

AST SpaceMobile now has more than 60 gateways deployed, installed, or in planning worldwide.

That expansive ground network supports its global commercial ecosystem, which includes partnerships with 60 mobile network operators collectively serving more than three billion subscribers.

“We are moving toward service with the partnerships, spectrum and network capabilities needed to bring cellular broadband from space into people’s everyday lives,” said Scott Wisniewski, president of AST SpaceMobile.

Advancing with spectrum is a critical factor in the company’s readiness. By combining strategic partners’ spectrum with access to mobile satellite services (MSS) spectrum, AST SpaceMobile can target approximately 100 MHz of access in the United States. That is in addition to its spectrum position with access to 45 MHz of MSS mid-band spectrum in North America and priority rights to 60 MHz of S-band spectrum globally, which will vary on a market-by-market basis.

AST SpaceMobile’s ground network will support this service rollout by connecting the company’s LEO constellation of BlueBird satellites with mobile operators’ networks, which enables the routing of broadband data, voice, and video between space and ground-based infrastructure.

The move comes at a pivotal moment. Following SpaceX’s September announcement that it was purchasing wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar NASDAQ: ECHO, the direct-to-cell (D2C) provider and AST SpaceMobile competitor announced on Oct. 8 that it will be acquiring a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio of up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band.

According to a U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) filing, SpaceX has agreed to purchase the licenses from investment firm Grain Management. If approved, the acquisition could improve Starlink Mobile's indoor cellular coverage and strengthen its position as a potential competitor to major U.S. wireless carriers.

With the spectrum agreement pending FCC approval, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk called it the “last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America.”

BlueBird Launch Delays Threaten AST SpaceMobile's Timeline

Despite the announcement, AST SpaceMobile still faces numerous hurdles in reaching its goal of deploying a fleet of 45 BlueBird satellites. Initially, the timeline for completing that objective was by the end of 2026. More recently, the company pushed it back to early 2027, leaving little room for further launch disruptions.

One potential obstacle is the availability of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) grounded New Glenn and required a formal mishap investigation following the failed deployment of AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 7 in April. The FAA cleared the rocket to resume flights in May, but a separate launchpad test explosion on May 28 caused additional delays.

Now, Blue Origin is targeting a return to flight before the end of 2026, with a tentative Dec. 28 launch date.

Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile shipped BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 from its Midland facility toward Cape Canaveral on Sept. 30. In its Oct. 20 announcement, the company reported that production had advanced through BlueBird 50, demonstrating continued manufacturing progress even as launch timing remains uncertain.

Although AST SpaceMobile is progressing toward its deployment target, further launch delays could slow the expansion of commercial coverage and put additional pressure on investor sentiment.

Wall Street Sees Upside, But Risks Remain Elevated

Of the 14 analysts currently covering ASTS, six have assigned the stock a Buy rating, despite an average price target implying more than 100% upside.

Overall, ASTS receives an analyst consensus Hold rating.

Current short interest of more than 21% of the float—or nearly 65 million shares of the more than 389 million shares outstanding—serves as another cautionary tale for investors.

With a beta of 2.72, ASTS has historically been highly sensitive to broader market movements. That volatility could persist through the remainder of 2026 as investors weigh satellite deployment progress, commercial service readiness, and growing competition from SpaceX.