AST SpaceMobile Has a New Rocket Plan, But Its Cash-Burn Problem Isn't Going Away

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile shares fell more than 8% after the company missed both earnings and revenue estimates for the third quarter, extending a long streak of misses.
• The company unveiled plans for its own reusable Blacklift rocket using Firefly Aerospace engines, a $1.3 billion deal intended to cut future launch costs.
• Despite rising spending and cash burn, AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance and analysts maintain a consensus Hold rating with significant upside potential.

Despite plans to build its own 20-ton rocket, the market continues to punish AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS.

Shares of the space-based cellular broadband network provider are down more than 8% since the company announced a bearish double-miss when it reported Q3 earnings after the close on Monday, Nov. 9.

The Midland, Texas-based company has now missed on earnings in seven consecutive quarters, while the Q3 revenue miss was its third in a row and its eighth in the past nine quarters. After the ensuing sell-off, the space stock was down around 75% from its all-time high on May 28, 2026.

As AST SpaceMobile continues to pursue global commercial direct-to-device (D2D) services before the end of 2026, it remains a sore spot in investors’ portfolios as legal challenges and an increasing threat from SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX mount.

Another Earnings Miss Puts Cash Burn in Focus

On Monday, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of negative 44 cents, which missed the analyst consensus of negative 41 cents.

Although revenue of $42.32 million marked a nearly 188% year-over-year (YOY) increase, it still came up shy of Wall Street’s expectations of $45.73 million.

Despite the miss, revenue growth wasn’t the only bright spot. AST SpaceMobile said it remains on track to begin intermittent nationwide service in the United States and other key markets before year-end 2026, with an initial rollout planned through partners in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. The company reports more than 60 mobile network operator partners representing over 3 billion subscribers globally.

It also reported validating a satellite-to-ground beam handover with AT&T NYSE: T, with broader user beta trials expected to begin in early 2027. Additionally, the company is targeting production of six low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites per month by December. That effort should help it build its LEO constellation to roughly 45 satellites in orbit by the middle of next year.

Management said the new ASIC offers 10 times the processing bandwidth of its first-generation BlueBird satellites, though deployment and production targets remain subject to execution and launch schedules.

AST SpaceMobile reiterated its full-year revenue guidance in the range of $150 million to $200 million. But investors’ bearish response came from the admission that spending is expected to rise through the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027.

Q4 adjusted operating expenses, excluding the adjusted cost of revenue, are forecast at $130 million to $140 million, with capital expenditures (CapEx) of $400 million to $500 million. Management also expects several hundred million dollars of CapEx in 2027 tied to its recent pursuit of a rocket.

In his earnings call comments, CEO Abel Avellan noted how the pursuit of AST SpaceMobile’s own rocket—called Blacklift—“offers attractive ownership economics over the long term.”

But the company continues to face an uphill battle in the near term. In Q3, EPS improved just 2.22% despite strong revenue growth, while free cash flow to the firm deteriorated nearly 150% YOY, underscoring the company's substantial cash burn. While a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $132 million was an improvement over Q2's $231 million loss, net cash used in operating activities rose 74% to approximately $169 million from $97 million in Q2.

AST SpaceMobile Plans Its Own Rocket: Blacklift Targets Late 2028 Launches

On Friday, Nov. 6, AST SpaceMobile announced that it will be developing its own reusable rockets called Blacklift. The 20-tonne heavy-lift rocket will use engines from Firefly Aerospace NASDAQ: FLY as part of a $1.3 billion agreement.

For buy-and-hold investors, this news couldn’t have come soon enough. While the company will still be reliant upon third–party launch providers for the next two years, the Blacklift announcement marks a major long-term development that is likely to dramatically reduce AST SpaceMobile’s launch expenses.

The agreement with Firefly entails engines for the first three Blacklift rockets, each of which will be capable of deploying five stacked BlueBirds into LEO at a time—a marked improvement over the three BlueBirds being deployed at a time under current conditions with SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

In the interim, the company said external launch agreements cover more than 100 LEO satellites for deployment in 2027 and 2028, while its own Blacklift rocket is targeted to begin launches in late 2028.

“We now have launches planned in 2027 and 2028 with SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others, supporting a planned 100 satellites in orbit,” Avellan said during the earnings call.

Management sees Blacklift as a way to improve launch access and long-term economics, but its development adds execution risk and does not replace near-term reliance on external launch providers.

Analyst Upside Potential Clashes With Elevated Short Interest

AST SpaceMobile has acknowledged that spending increased sharply this year in order to support its BlueBird constellation buildout.

Now Blacklift will compound that issue. But by reaffirming its full-year revenue guidance and addressing future cost burdens, the company’s long-term growth outlook remains intact.

Of the 16 analysts currently covering the stock, six assign it a Buy rating, eight assign it a Hold rating, and just two assign it a Sell rating.

Overall, it carries a consensus Hold rating, with an average 12-month price target implying more than 100% upside.

But with a beta that is now up to 2.88, ASTS has historically been 188% more sensitive to broad-market movements, adding to the risks facing shareholders and making it an ongoing target for bears. Current short interest is approaching 22% of the float and stands at 67.5 million shares of the more than 389 million shares outstanding.

Nonetheless, institutional investors continue to scoop up shares. Over the past year, buying has surpassed selling by a margin of $2.34 billion, compared with less than $413 million.