Can Apple's New Boss Deliver a Blockbuster Product Launch?

Key Points

• Apple is set to unveil its first foldable iPhone next week, a major test for new leader John Ternus and the stock's momentum.
• Rising memory chip costs are pushing up production expenses, prompting Apple to raise iPhone prices by roughly $200 rather than cut margins.
• Wall Street remains split, with Rothschild's $400 bullish target contrasting Jefferies' $263.66 bearish call, though consensus still favors a Moderate Buy rating.

All eyes in the tech world turn to Cupertino next week, when Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL throws open the doors on its most closely watched product launch in years. It's a big moment for the company, and an even bigger one for the man now in charge, John Ternus, who has already told staff to expect something "phenomenal."

Investors have been clearly leaning into both the leadership change and the launch hype. Apple shares have rallied nearly 10% from the low they set after last month's earnings, and now trade around $325, marching back towards the all-time high they set in July.

That momentum shows every sign of continuing as anticipation builds ahead of the launch.

The biggest short-term question is whether the launch can live up to the hype. With potentially game-changing updates on the cards, next week could set the tone for Apple's stock for months to come.

The Foldable That Could Change the Story

The headline act is widely expected to be Apple's first-ever foldable iPhone, the boldest reinvention of the company's most important product in years. Alongside it will come the usual refresh of premium iPhones, but the foldable is what has investors most excited.

The reason is the sheer scale of the opportunity. Some analysts expect Apple could ship more than 17 million foldable units by 2027, capturing roughly 40% of the global market for such devices. With a price tag expected to exceed $2,500, that could mean more than $45 billion in revenue for Apple, a not-insubstantial bump to target going into next year.

The Cost Cloud on the Horizon

Yet for all the excitement, serious headwinds are rising costs. The price of memory chips has soared, driven by insatiable demand from AI data centers, and that inflation is landing squarely on Apple's newest devices. By one estimate, the bill of materials for the latest Pro iPhone could be almost 40% higher than a year earlier.

That leaves Apple with an awkward balancing act: either pass those costs on to consumers through heftier price tags, accept slimmer margins, or some uncomfortable combination of the two. With the new iPhone already tipped to cost around $200 more than its predecessor, it looks like the company is leaning towards the first option.

The risk, as the skeptics rightly point out, is that higher prices eventually dampen demand. At some stage, customers will start to balk at the steeper cost, unit sales will slow, and with them the growth of Apple's prized services business, which feeds off the size of its active user base. That’s the real tension at play as we head into next week and beyond.

A Divided Wall Street

Given those competing forces, it's little wonder that analyst opinion on Apple is so split. On the bullish side, Rothschild and other firms lead the pack with a $400 price target, implying more than 20% upside from current levels. The team there specifically cited the strength of the product pipeline and the promise of the foldable iPhone as reasons to be excited.

On the other side of the fence are bears like Jefferies, which recently downgraded the stock to Underperform, arguing the foldable will stay niche. Their price target of $263.66 calls for the stock to fall 20% from recent levels.

The team at KeyBanc is similarly cautious on Apple, and warned that aggressive pricing increases could throttle demand.

For all that caution, though, the weight of opinion still sits on the bullish side, with the analyst community netting out to a consensus rating of Moderate Buy on Apple.

Can Ternus Deliver?

So can Apple's new boss deliver the blockbuster he has promised? The ingredients are definitely there: a bold new product, a loyal customer base with a taste for premium gadgets, and a share price already showing its hand. This combination gives Ternus a real chance to start his tenure with a bang.

The obstacles, however, are just as real. The specter of rising costs hangs over the whole affair, and will continue to do so long after next week’s launch. And the ongoing questions about Apple's AI strategy have not gone away. A successful launch would quieten the doubters, but a disappointment would quickly add to the company’s woes.

With that in mind, next week is best seen as both an opportunity and a test. If the foldable dazzles and the price increase lands well, Apple shares could see fresh record highs. Get it wrong, though, and the doubts will only grow louder. Either way, all eyes will be on Cupertino to see whether Ternus can make good on his “phenomenal” promise.