Gold's 2026 Pullback Raises a Bigger Question: Buy the Metal or the Miners?

Key Points

• Gold's decline in 2026 may present buying opportunities, although elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on its appeal.
• The iShares Gold Trust offers direct exposure to physical gold without the challenges of storing bullion.
• AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, and Alamos Gold offer alternative ways to invest in gold, each with different growth prospects and operating risks.

Gold has been out of the spotlight for much of 2026 as AI stocks have dominated headlines, but a brief rally for the precious metal over the summer has proven unsustainable heading into the end of the year. After its strong performance throughout much of 2025, gold is down about 7% year to date (YTD). In some ways, the decline in gold has been bizarre—investors might expect it to move the other direction amid a sell-off in the tech space, rising inflation fears, or as the Middle East conflict raises oil and gas prices.

Those expecting these factors might lead investors to once again turn to gold as a safe haven may find themselves taking a contrarian position while Treasury yields are elevated. Still, while the metal is close to a one-year low, there may be an opportunity to buy in—either to gold itself or to a number of other proxies—while valuations may be particularly attractive. This can be done with a gold-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the iShares Gold Trust NYSEARCA: IAU or via mining companies including AngloGold Ashanti PLC NYSE: AU, Gold Fields Ltd. NYSE: GFI, or Alamos Gold Inc. NYSE: AGI.

IAU: The Direct Play on Gold

IAU is one of the most popular ways for investors to build exposure to physical gold, as it structures this investment through an ETF that eliminates the need for securing and storing gold on one's own. The sole holding of IAU is bullion, which it offers for an annual fee of 0.25%.

Gold began a modest rebound in the period immediately following the 2026 midterm elections, but other factors may help to continue this upward trend over the longer term: institutional investors and governments remain heavily interested in gold, with central bank purchases for Q3 2026 up 42% compared to the prior-year period. When interest rates eventually decline and bond and savings accounts become less compelling, gold could rebound further.

IAU appeals to investors not only because of its convenience and relatively modest cost but also because of its liquidity, which makes it easy and cheap to trade and helps to distinguish it from other gold-focused ETFs.

AU and GFI Provide Different Geographic Focuses and Approaches to Mining

Both AngloGold and Gold Fields have significant exposure to gold mining operations in Africa, setting them apart from U.S.-focused mining companies.

AngloGold in particular has a sizable portfolio of African mining assets as it is also expanding into other geographic regions.

Its ability to scale production is demonstrable—in its Q2 2026 earnings report, the company expected second-half 2026 production to exceed first-half levels.

To be sure, AngloGold has faced rising costs as a result of inflation. Coupled with the decline in gold prices, shares of AU have faced recent pressure even as EBITDA rose by 46% year over year in Q2 2026 and headline earnings surged by 58%.

The company's Q3 2026 earnings showed that EBITDA rose 12% year over year, although costs remained elevated.

Gold Fields has a different geographic footprint, with a compelling combination of established producing mines and new development opportunities, as well as a recent addition of $500 million to its authorization for shareholder returns.

Its Salares Norte mine in Chile has become an important contributor, producing 136,000 gold-equivalent ounces in Q3 2026. The company also recently secured environmental approval for its Windfall project in Québec, bringing another potential source of future production a step closer.

At the same time, investors should keep an eye on production and costs after Q3 2026 output fell 3% year over year and all-in sustaining costs rose 26%.

Still, Gold Fields maintained its full-year production guidance and expects to finish 2026 near the upper end of its projected range.

AGI: A North American Play Presenting a Buy Opportunity

Alamos is a Canadian mining firm with a more concentrated base of operations in North America. With the benefit of the company's Q3 2026 results in hand, investors can be assured that Alamos is on track to meet its production goals, including a 26% projected increase in consolidated production for Q4.

Alamos reported $76 million in free cash flow last quarter, down considerably from $144 million for Q2 2026. Costs are a major factor here, and the company also continues to try to recover from a seismic event that took place previously at its Young-Davidson project.

These factors have combined to push AGI stock down by more than 25% YTD. However, analysts still see a company with strong fundamental operations and potential for a turnaround—Wall Street rates AGI a near-unanimous Buy and anticipates the stock price to rise by about two-thirds. The tumble this year may present an opportunity for equally bullish investors to enter or bulk up a position in AGI while the share price is depressed.