Palantir’s Rally Puts Wall Street in Catch-Up Mode Ahead of November Earnings

Key Points

• Palantir Technologies has rallied roughly 60% since early August and is trading within about 5% of its 52-week high.
• Goldman Sachs upgraded Palantir Technologies to Buy as sovereign AI demand strengthens the firm’s long-term growth case.
• Palantir Technologies continues to post exceptional revenue and free cash flow growth ahead of its estimated November earnings report.

Palantir Technologies NASDAQ: PLTR has been one of the biggest winners in the last earnings season. PLTR is up approximately 60% since August, and it's within about 5% of its 52-week high.

The stock's rally is supported by recent analyst sentiment. On Oct. 8, Goldman Sachs NYSE: GS raised its rating on PLTR to Buy from Neutral. The new rating comes with a $230 price target. That's approximately 17% above the consensus price target of $198.75 from analysts tracked by MarketBeat.

That’s a notable shift. As recently as August, Goldman kept its Neutral rating even as it raised its price target to $204.

This rally comes at a time that's been quiet in terms of news surrounding Palantir. There hasn't been a blockbuster deal for investors to price into the stock. Rather, this seems to be centered around the case that Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp has made for sovereign AI.

Will Analysts Raise Ahead of Earnings?

Now that PLTR has climbed above its consensus price target, the focus shifts to the analyst community. Retail investors should keep in mind that price targets often follow the stock rather than lead it.

For instance, Deutsche Bank initially set a $200 target for PLTR in February and gave it a Hold rating. When they upgraded the stock to Buy in August, they maintained the same $200 target. The rating shifted, but the target remained unchanged.

But if there's anything worse than being too early, it's being too late.

That's the choice analysts face with PLTR. If they wait until Palantir reports earnings (tentatively scheduled for Nov. 2), they could be forced to aggressively raise targets after the gains have already been made. On the other hand, if they raise their targets now, they could be on the wrong side if Palantir's report disappoints.

Why Palantir’s Growth Isn’t Close to Normalizing

Which outcome is more likely? Palantir's business results will normalize at some point. But that's not going to be this quarter, and likely not for several quarters.

The company’s guidance backs that up. Palantir guided for Q3 revenue to be between $2.16 billion and $2.164 billion. It also raised full-year revenue guidance to as much as $8.158 billion, a growth rate of about 82%. And Palantir has topped revenue estimates by 4.6% to 8.3% in each of the last four quarters.

Karp has set an aggressive free cash flow (FCF) target between $15 billion and $18 billion in the next two years. That represents a gain of roughly 600% in FCF over two years. That’s more than triple the company’s 2026 guidance for adjusted FCF of $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion. It's also the foundation of Karp's contention that PLTR is significantly undervalued.

Using a basic discounted cash flow model, Palantir would need FCF growth of around 34% to justify its current price. That's about average for a software company. But in Q2 2026, Palantir's adjusted FCF was $1.22 billion, up 115% year over year.

Reaching Karp’s target from this year’s guidance would require FCF growth of roughly 80% to 100% per year. That’s slower than Q2’s pace, but it’s still more than double the 34% the current price requires. So even if growth “normalizes” after Palantir reaches that number, the long-term average should clear that hurdle.

What the PLTR Chart Says Ahead of Earnings

The chart supports the bull case, with a few caveats. PLTR is trading about 13% above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $175.21. That average has been rising steadily since early August.

On Oct. 8, PLTR traded as high as $204.44 before closing at $198.78. That leaves the stock just below its November 2025 high, near $207. The long upper wick on that day’s candle shows sellers stepping in above $200.

Momentum is positive but not as strong as the price. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line just crossed above its signal line. However, the MACD remains well below its August peak even as the stock makes higher highs. Volume has also been lighter than during the August breakout. Traders may want to see a close above $207 on stronger volume before chasing the stock.

Is Wall Street About to Chase PLTR Higher?

Goldman may not be the last firm to move before Nov. 2. If Palantir delivers another beat-and-raise quarter, the $198.75 consensus target will likely look stale.

That doesn’t make PLTR a low-risk stock. But for long-term investors, the more important number isn’t the price target. It’s whether Palantir keeps growing fast enough to make Karp’s FCF goal look conservative.