This Under-the-Radar Industrial Is Quietly Powering AI

Key Points

• Regal Rexnord's stock has risen about 51% this year, driven by surging data-center orders that pushed AMC segment orders up more than 34% year-over-year.
• First-quarter 2026 results beat expectations, with sales of $1.48 billion and daily orders up 8.5%, prompting management to raise its full-year sales growth outlook to about 4.5%.
• Risks including a declining adjusted EBITDA margin, rising short interest, and a leadership transition temper the bullish case despite strong recent performance.

Regal Rexnord NYSE: RRX has spent decades making motors and power-transmission components for factories.

It still does. But it also makes automation and motion-control components for data centers. And its stock is up about 50% this year as orders flood in.

Analysts rate the company a Moderate Buy by consensus, with most suggesting a Buy.

But a rich multiple, rising short interest, and leadership transition do not make this recent winner necessarily low-risk.

AI Data Centers Are Driving Demand

At its core, Regal Rexnord is a maker of industrial powertrain systems, motion control technology, and power management solutions. In other words, it makes the mechanical and electrical components that move, control, and regulate energy inside machines.

For years, its products went into factories, HVAC systems, agricultural equipment, and commercial infrastructure. More recently, though, cloud companies and AI developers began building data centers at a breakneck pace, and they needed the precision power components that Regal Rexnord specializes in.

Cooling systems require motion control. Power distribution requires conversion technology. The infrastructure behind an AI data center is, at its core, an industrial engineering problem, and Regal Rexnord is one of the companies solving it.

Strong Orders Point to Sustained Growth

The first quarter of 2026 provided the evidence. The company reported sales of $1.48 billion, up 4.3% year-over-year, and above analysts’ expectations. GAAP net income rose 11.8% to $64.3 million from $57.5 million in the prior year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share climbed to $2.17 from $2.15, also above what analysts expected.

While those top figures were solid, the number that attracted the most attention was found in the order data. Daily orders rose 8.5% from the prior year, and backlog grew 6.7% quarter-to-quarter at the enterprise level.

In particular, it was Regal Rexnord's Automation and Motion Control (AMC) segment where orders tied to data-center applications surged. Total AMC segment orders were up more than 34% compared with the prior year, and even when data-center demand is removed, the remaining AMC orders still grew 28%. Overall, net sales for the unit were $457.1 million, up 15.3% from the year-earlier period.

The company also said it expects orders to continue increasing. “We’re still very, very bullish,” the company’s CEO said in the quarterly conference call with analysts. “This is a market where we’re nicely positioned.”

Strong Results Extend Beyond AI Data Centers

The details are telling, as the data center buildout powers serious demand while the rest of the business is also strengthening, with aerospace, defense, and medical applications all contributing.

The company’s industrial powertrain solutions saw net sales rise 5.8% to $648.2 million. Its power efficiency solutions operations, hurt by a weakness in residential HVAC sales, saw a decrease of 8.6% to $373.8 million.

Management responded by raising its full-year 2026 sales growth expectation to about 4.5%, an increase of roughly 150 basis points from the prior outlook. Its adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range of $10.20 to $11 for the year stayed level, compared with $9.65 for 2025.

Wall Street Sees Limited Upside After Big Rally

The stock's performance this year reflects how dramatically the market's perception of Regal Rexnord has shifted.

Currently trading at about $212 per share, shares are up about 51% from $140.48 at the start of this year.

The 10 analysts who follow the stock have a consensus rating of a Moderate Buy, though the 12-month price target they collectively predict is $237.80, just 310% higher than recent trading prices. With a quarterly dividend of just 35 cents and a dividend yield below 1%, the stock's potential for appreciation is the key driver.

Seven of the analysts rate the stock a Buy, while three have tagged it a Hold. The highest price target is $265 per share, and the lowest is $160.

Short interest is also something to watch. As of the middle of June, the company had a short interest of 3.35 million shares sold short, about 5% of the outstanding float. That’s more than twice the level from the middle of March.

Margins and New Leadership Pose Risks

The caution that is evident in some of these numbers is not unsupported.

Regal Rexnord competes in markets where Rockwell Automation NYSE: ROK, Eaton NYSE: ETN, and Emerson Electric NYSE: EMR are also pursuing electrification and digital-infrastructure spending. And though the company has attractive specialties and technological advantages, industrial demand can soften quickly.

Despite beating expectations with revenue and earnings, the company also spooked the market as its earnings report showed its margin on adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) dropped to 20.6% from 21.8% in the year-earlier period. With tariffs and higher material costs, that margin could also be hit further.

Leadership transition adds another variable. Earlier this year, the company announced it had appointed a new CEO. A new president of the company’s Industrial Powertrain Solutions has also been named.

A New Industrial Growth Story Is Emerging

Regal Rexnord is not an easy call. The surge in stock price followed by an influx of short sellers makes it clear there are two ways to view the company.

For investors, it’s a genuinely interesting opportunity in the industrial sector. The company is not a traditional value stock, nor is it a dividend stock. It is a company that is possibly undergoing a real transformation from a legacy industrial company to an AI-boosted supplier. If the infrastructure buildout is just getting started, Regal Rexnord's position, assuming new management can execute, could be in the formative stages.

A serious dip in the sector, though, could see its growth unfulfilled. Watch for margins and order flow when it reports its next quarter.

Regardless of what happens, Regal Rexnord is no longer easy to ignore.