Will the Most Successful Quantum Firms Be Software Companies?

Key Points

• Quantum Computing as a Service, or QCaaS, may matter more than raw hardware power for generating revenue among D-Wave, Rigetti, and Quantum Computing Inc.
• D-Wave appears best positioned for QCaaS growth, with over 37% of its QCaaS revenue coming from production applications and several 8-figure enterprise agreements.
• Rigetti shows stronger revenue and margin growth but remains hardware-dependent, while Quantum Computing Inc. is furthest from a QCaaS model and considered the riskiest bet.

The argument for quantum computing investors is largely focused on hardware, as companies race to achieve increasingly impressive qubit counts and error rates. Although technologies are still largely untested in commercial applications, there is also a great deal of debate over which architecture—from annealing to trapped-ion and more—is most promising.

While this debate assumes that the company building the most powerful quantum device will win the market, it obscures the element that may be poised to actually generate increasing revenue for companies, including D-Wave Quantum Inc. NASDAQ: QBTS, Rigetti Computing NASDAQ: RGTI, and Quantum Computing Inc. NASDAQ: QUBT: the software and cloud layer, and more specifically, Quantum Computing as a Service, or QCaaS.

We're in a Noisy Middle Period

Part of the reason that QCaaS seems to matter now is that the quantum computing industry is in a noisy middle period in which machines are able to operate with up to around 1,000 qubits, but in which errors still remain frequent. Fault-tolerant quantum computing appears to be years off, making it likely that hardware won't fully scale in the near- to medium term.

Instead, access to quantum tools may be more easily monetized to allow clients to run hybrid classical-quantum systems and to complete vital tasks on quantum processors without actually owning the hardware.

D-Wave's QCaaS Paves the Way

D-Wave has one of the strongest cases for QCaaS, as evidenced in large part by its significant bookings this year and, in particular, in the latest quarter. It has negotiated some 8-figure enterprise QCaaS agreements, which are a boon alongside its hardware system sales; the latter are lumpy, which may have contributed to the company's overall disappointing performance last quarter.

The big bright spot for D-Wave amid disappointing revenue performance last quarter was its commercial metrics, as more than 37% of QCaaS revenue was from production applications, or companies using quantum computing for live and operational workloads. This figure is key because it represents a customer base that is perhaps most likely to rely on a quantum computing firm for stable, repeat business, thus generating recurring subscription revenue.

D-Wave may have the advantage that it does thanks to its quantum annealing hardware, which is designed specifically for optimization efforts that appeal to enterprise customers not needing fault-tolerant quantum computing yet. It's also the reason investors might want to think of D-Wave increasingly as a software or service provider in addition to its hardware offerings.

Rigetti's Cloud Offerings Are in Progress

Rigetti takes a different approach, building revenue by making major quantum computers and then integrating them into clouds. The company does generate cloud revenue, but what Rigetti is really doing is providing access to its hardware, not operating as a software-based recurring revenue firm.

At the same time, Rigetti has shown more meaningful progress than D-Wave this year. Revenue and gross margin both improved considerably year over year (YOY) for the last quarter, with the former coming close to tripling.

Still, Rigetti's revenue model seems to be more heavily dependent on hardware and achieving major tech milestones, such as its 108-qubit system that it is aiming for in 2026 and the 150-plus system by the end of the year.

Despite the apparently stronger Q2 2026, Rigetti may have a more difficult time adapting to a QCaaS-first approach than D-Wave.

Quantum Computing Is a Higher-Risk Play Overall

As the smallest company on this list with a very thin revenue history, Quantum Computing Inc. seems to be relying even more heavily on its ability to scale its architecture. In a speculative industry, QUBT stands out, and Wall Street analysts agree: QUBT shares are a Hold overall, despite forecasts suggesting that the share price could surge by about 130%.

QCaaS seems to be far away for Quantum Computing, despite the fact that its unique photon-based architecture has potential. The company may appeal to investors seeking a diversified approach to the hardware side of quantum and looking to bet on photonic computing as the architecture that will ultimately become the winning approach.

To be sure, all of these companies represent fairly speculative bets at this point. However, it appears that D-Wave may be the best situated for a QCaaS-forward approach, while Rigetti lies somewhere in the middle, and Quantum Computing is least prepared to build software-like recurring revenue streams. Still, the industry is changing rapidly and becoming increasingly differentiated, and a new leader in the QCaaS race may emerge in the future.

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