Fidelis Insurance Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 21, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Robust Underwriting Returns: Delivered a 17.7% annualized operating ROAE and an 82.4% combined ratio year-to-date, driven by a 15% YTD gross written premium increase to $2.8 billion and 46% growth in the specialty segment.
  • Three-Pillar Model Advantage: Utilizes specialty, bespoke and reinsurance pillars—plus a strategic MGU partnership—for nimble capital allocation and superior pricing leverage amid a hard market and ~$100 billion of nat-cat losses.
  • Cautious Bespoke Approach: Q3 bespoke gross written premiums declined as management remains highly selective on long-term contracts; applies proven underwriting discipline from the COVID era despite a strong deal pipeline.
  • Optimized Reinsurance Portfolio: Maintained YTD reinsurance gross written premiums at $610 million, achieved a 168% rate-on-line increase, and focused on top-tier risks and targeted participation to balance volatility.
  • Financial Strength & Capital Management: Reported Q3 net income of $88 million ($0.74/share) and YTD net income of $1.9 billion (ex-gain $265 million), invested $2 billion at a 5.1% yield, and grew book value to $18.25/share (+12.4%).
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Earnings Conference Call
Fidelis Insurance Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Fidelis Insurance Holdings third quarter and first nine months 2023 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. Following the conclusion of formal remarks, the management will host a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. Participants are asked to limit themselves to one question and one follow-up during the Q&A session. With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Jillian Benson, Group Head of Reporting. Ms. Benson, please go ahead.

Jillian Benson
Jillian Benson
Group Head of Reporting at Fidelis Insurance Group

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss Fidelis Insurance Group's 2023 third quarter earnings results. With me today are Dan Burrows, our CEO; Allan Decleir, our CFO; Jonny Strickle, our Chief Actuarial Officer; and Ian Houston, our Chief Underwriting Officer. We will start with prepared comments by Dan and Allan, and then we will take your questions. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements in our press release and discussed on this call do constitute forward-looking statements under federal securities laws within the meaning of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend our forward-looking statements to be subject to the safe harbor created thereby. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

Jillian Benson
Jillian Benson
Group Head of Reporting at Fidelis Insurance Group

These risks and uncertainties are described in our IPO prospectus, dated June 28th, and filed with the SEC. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in forward-looking statements have a reasonable basis when made, we can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to be achieved. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information, including on the risk and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should also review periodic reports that are filed by us with the SEC from time to time. Management will also make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance.

Jillian Benson
Jillian Benson
Group Head of Reporting at Fidelis Insurance Group

The reconciliations to U.S. GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in our current report on Form 6-K, furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains our earnings press release and is also available on our investor relations website at investors.fidelisinsurance.com and on the SEC's website. With that, I'll turn it over to Dan.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Thank you, Jillian. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We have spoken in the past about how our unique business model, capabilities, and expertise allow us to be nimble and opportunistic and generate consistent, compelling performance. This was evident in our third quarter and year-to-date results. On a year-to-date basis, we have delivered an annualized operating ROAE of 17.7% and a combined ratio of 82.4%, demonstrating continued superior underwriting returns. We remained focused on writing a short-tail portfolio across our three pillars: specialty, bespoke, and reinsurance, preserving underwriting integrity while adapting to market conditions and the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes. We leverage our relationship with Fidelis MGU to strategically capture underwriting opportunities, and we are focused on allocating capital to the areas that deliver the best risk-adjusted returns.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

From a macro perspective, we believe that the market remains robust and will provide opportunity to deliver attractive returns for the foreseeable future. We expect continued duration across the portfolio, in addition to compound year-on-year rate increases already achieved over the last five years. Market dynamics continue to be fueled by loss activity, with $100 billion of nat cat losses recorded so far in 2023, which we believe is beginning to look like the new expected annual aggregate of losses. This has been compounded by sustained capital constraints, with no new significant capital injections into the industry. We will continue to take advantage of the opportunities these factors will create. The leverage created through our leadership and relevance to clients enables us to deliver superior underwriting margin, deploying our significant line size to take advantage of differential pricing in an increasingly verticalized market.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

I will now give a brief highlight of our performance and strategy across our three pillars. Compared to prior year, gross written premiums for the nine months up to September 30th increased 15% to $2.8 billion. Strong top-line growth has been coupled with compelling bottom-line profitability. Combined ratio improved year-on-year from 101.6% to 82.4% for the first nine months, and our year-to-date analyzed operating ROAE is 17.7%. Our growth in 2023 continues to be driven by our specialty insurance portfolio, where following years of compound increases across multiple lines of business and a continued momentum in pricing, we were able to leverage our market lead position, scale, and line size to achieve favorable participation on targeted accounts.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Year to date, gross written premium is up 46% in the specialty segment, with property D&F a significant driver, with RPIs of over 140% for this class, as demand and pricing in the vertical remain robust. Specialty now represents 65% of year-to-date gross written premium versus 51% for the first nine months of 2022. We continue to focus as a specialty and bespoke insurance carrier, where we see the best returns in the current market environment. While bespoke was down on the quarter year-over-year, we remain confident in this pillar of our business over the long term. Our lead position, along with the non-recurring nature of contracts, allows us to be particularly selective.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

This segment is more insulated to traditional insurance market cycles than specialty and reinsurance, and the deal flow is impacted by underlying transactional activity and sensitivities to economic and geopolitical trends. Given the lingering concerns around the current environment, we are deliberately taking a measured approach within this segment, assessing deal dynamics. This is a strategy we have deployed successfully before, where in 2020, we took a similar approach when COVID created uncertainty in the market. The portfolio performed well and enabled us to take advantage of opportunities as market conditions changed. Our strategy is to operate nimbly across our three pillars to achieve the best risk-adjusted returns, as demonstrated by the company's overall strong year-over-year growth, and we remain well positioned to respond to any change in conditions.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Finally, in our reinsurance portfolio, we continue to experience favorable rating and have been able to maintain year-on-year gross written premium levels despite significant optimization and repositioning of the portfolio in line with our view of risk. We continue to carefully manage our capital deployment, managing volatility and exposures with targeted participation on select programs and in select geographies. Premium levels in this space have been significantly rate driven, with a year-to-date RPI of 168%. Overall, we delivered another quarter of profitable underwriting by focusing on risk-adjusted returns across the portfolio while leveraging the momentum established in the first half year to deliver significant year-on-year growth.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Our strong market position across our lines of business means we can achieve differential pricing and terms on our expertise across underwriting and capital management, enable us to opportunistically navigate the market and respond to prevailing conditions in conjunction with our partners at the MGU. Our relationship enables the MGU to fully focus on current underwriting opportunities. I've asked Richard Brindle, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Fidelis MGU, to join us for a pre-recorded segment to outline his views of the market and to provide commentary during this critical time of year.

Richard Brindle
CEO and Chairman at Fidelis MGU

Thank you, Danny, and can I start by saying how delighted I am to be here at your invitation? As sister companies, we work very closely together. The MGU is now laser-focused on the underwriting and origination functions, and I'm able to spend 90% of my time on underwriting. The great results for the quarter demonstrates that we can continue to deliver top-tier performance under the new model. It is worth mentioning our daily underwriting calls. We have pretty much every deal of any consequence comes through one of the daily underwriting calls, where we take a multifaceted decision on the risk in the room. Just diving into the different areas of business a little bit, property, treaty, and cat. The frequency of floods and convective storm losses, as well as wildfires from Canada to Hawaii, Portugal to Australia.

Richard Brindle
CEO and Chairman at Fidelis MGU

Even Hurricane Hilary hitting California continues to reflect the increased and ongoing impacts of climate change. Clients, in part, in response to this, are looking to buy more limits, both in the U.S. and Europe, and our ability to offer private layers help secure our places on programs. Pricing, we anticipate, will continue to improve, and this is driven by the lack of any new capital coming to our industry. By seeing risk before peers and with substantial capacity to deploy, we not only get the better allocation that I talked about before, but we get better pricing, terms and conditions, and overall metrics. This monetizes our ability to shape deals and work with our clients and brokers to secure the maximum participation. This also allows us to cross-sell lines of business with brokers and clients. Our bespoke book, not a regular, predictable schedule of business.

Richard Brindle
CEO and Chairman at Fidelis MGU

There are longer stagnation periods to closure on deals, but the client base is very sticky and the business is very profitable, as you will see from the results. We did hold back a couple of years ago as inflation and rising interest rates became a factor for the first time in many years, and we think that was the right thing to do. A lot of people were talking at that time about a major global recession, and I think we should all be honest and say we didn't know how that would shake out, so we felt it was prudent to hold back. We've had great success with our Pernix political risk and credit Pine Walk cell, and high hopes for the next bespoke Pine Walk MGA, which is a Itasca.

Richard Brindle
CEO and Chairman at Fidelis MGU

That's a partnership with a market leader in aviation finance, which further cements our position as a go-to market for these kind of solutions. So finally, before I take up too much time, as we look forward into 2024, it is very notable that despite strong pricing across many segments of the market that we write, there is no sign of new capital coming into the market in any meaningful way. The old view that the cycle responded to large losses followed by clean years just doesn't hold up anymore. The market is on track for another $100 billion loss year for cats, without a major hurricane loss or earthquake, as increasing atmospheric moisture and temperatures drive increased frequency and severity of the secondary perils. It is clear that climate change is changing our market.

Richard Brindle
CEO and Chairman at Fidelis MGU

The market will remain hard in many areas, and we will continue to lead that market as thought leaders, price makers, not price takers, and we will continue to respond to capacity justifications in our nimble and unique manner. Thank you very much.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Thanks, Richard. I'll now turn to Allan to walk through the financial results in more detail.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Thanks, Dan, and I'd also like to welcome everyone to our third quarter earnings call. Please note that while we began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on June 29th, the IPO and our primary capital raise of $100 million did not close until July 3rd, and as such, the IPO results are reflected in our third quarter results. As Dan touched on, we had a very strong third quarter performance, with net income of $88 million, equating to $0.74 per diluted common share. For the first nine months of 2023, we had net income of $1.9 billion, or $16.82 per diluted common share. As a reminder, in the first quarter, we recognized a net gain on distribution of Fidelis MGU of $1.6 billion.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Excluding this one-time accounting gain, our net income for the first nine months of 2023 was $265 million. For the third quarter of 2023, our operating return on average equity was 17.6% on an annualized basis, compared with a negative 18.4% in the prior year period. For the first nine months of 2023, our operating return on average equity was 17.7% on an annualized basis, compared with a negative 2.8% in the prior year period. Turning to our gross premiums written, we had $593 million in the quarter, compared to $688 million in the third quarter of 2022. The change in the quarter was primarily related to bespoke, as Dan described earlier.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Both the Specialty and Reinsurance segments remained consistent in the third quarter compared to the prior year period. For the first nine months of 2023, we had overall gross premiums written growth of 15% to $2.8 billion, compared to the same period in 2022. The significant growth in our gross premiums written was primarily from our Specialty segment, which grew 46% to $1.8 billion. The increase relates to improved pricing as well as new business. The largest premium increases were in our property D&F, marine, and aviation and aerospace lines of business. This year-to-date growth was partially offset by our Bespoke segment, where gross premiums written were $367 million in the first nine months of 2023, compared to $573 million in the prior year period.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

In the reinsurance segment, gross premiums written remained consistent at $610 million in the first nine months, compared to $605 million in the prior year period. We have been able to take advantage of the improved rate environment and terms and conditions while moving away from attritional levels of our exposure. As you recall, we've intentionally taken a cautious and an opportunistic approach to deploying capital and reinsurance by focusing on top-tier cedents and risks that meet our required pricing hurdles. When looking at net premiums, net premiums written were $313 million in the quarter, compared to $495 million in the third quarter of 2022, with the change again due to the bespoke segment.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Net premiums written increased by 11% to $1.6 billion for the first nine months of 2023, primarily driven by the increase in gross premiums written in specialty. On a net premiums earned basis, our premium earned increased 18% to $510 million in the third quarter of 2023, and by 21% to $1.3 billion for the first nine months of 2023. The growth was a result of our decision to take advantage of opportunities, particularly in our specialty lines of business.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Our strong performance resulted in our combined ratio improving to 85.4% for the third quarter of 2023, from 120.5% in the prior year period, and to 82.4% for the first nine months of 2023, from 101.6% in the first nine months of 2022. The improvement was a result of a decrease in our loss ratio as a result of lower catastrophe and large losses for both the quarter and year-to-date periods. Despite another quarter of increased loss activity for the industry, we have seen a significant reduction in our year-on-year losses.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Our total catastrophe and large losses were $76 million, of which $21 million related to wildfires in Hawaii and our specialty and reinsurance segments, with the remainder related to other loss events in various lines of business, including energy, credit and political risk, marine, and aviation and aerospace. This compares to third quarter of 2022 catastrophe and large losses of $238 million related to Hurricane Ian and the Ukraine conflict. For the first nine months of 2023, the total catastrophe and large losses were $140 million, which included losses related to the Sudan conflict, severe convective storms in the U.S., the Hawaii wildfires, Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand, and smaller loss events in various lines of business.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

This compares to catastrophe and large losses in the first nine months in 2022 of $382 million related to Hurricane Ian, the Ukraine conflict, European storms, and Australian floods. It has been an active year, and we are pleased with the measures taken to optimize our portfolio, demonstrated by our superior combined ratio. Moving on to our prior year reserve development. We had net favorable prior year development of $43 million and $48 million for the quarter and first nine months of 2023, versus $3 million and $18 million in the prior year periods. The loss reserve development in 2023 was primarily attributable to favorable development on Hurricane Ian and favorable attritional loss experience across our reinsurance and bespoke segments. Moving on to expenses.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Across all of our segments, policy acquisition expenses from third parties were $151 million, or 29.6 points of the combined ratio for the quarter, compared to $113 million, or 25.9 points of the combined ratio in the prior year period. For the first nine months of 2023, policy acquisition expenses from third parties were $378 million, or 28.5 points of the combined ratio, compared to $263 million, or 24.1 points of the combined ratio. Our policy acquisition expense varies over time, depending on our business mix. Our Fidelis MGU commissions were $71 million, or 13.9 points of the combined ratio for the quarter, and $147 million, or 11.1 points of the combined ratio for the first nine months of 2023.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

The MGU commission relates to ceding, portfolio management, and profit commissions agreed as part of the framework agreement with Fidelis MGU, effective from January 1, 2023. Our general and administrative expenses were $22 million, or 4.3 points of the combined ratio for the quarter, a decrease from $59 million or 13.5 points of the combined ratio in the prior year period. For the first nine months of the year, general and administrative expenses were $57 million or 4.3 points of the combined ratio, a decrease from $136 million or 12.5 points of the combined ratio. The decreases were primarily related to the reduced headcount following the consummation of the separation transactions.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Combined Fidelis MGU commissions and general and administrative expense ratios are in line with our expectations as set out in the noted framework agreement and our operating model. Turning now to investments. Our strong results reflect net investment income of $33 million for the third quarter of 2023, compared with $11 million in the prior year period. For the first nine months of 2023, our net investment income was $81 million, compared with $24 million in the first nine months of 2022. These increases were primarily due to increases in interest rates during 2022 and 2023, where the short duration nature of our portfolio means that we are reinvesting at higher rates. During the first nine months of 2023, we invested $2 billion in fixed maturity available for sale securities with an average investment yield of 5.1%.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

We remain conservatively positioned, and our strategy allows us to prioritize taking risk on the underwriting side of our balance sheet. Turning to our balance sheet and financial condition, our book value per diluted common share was $18.25 at September 30th, 2023, an increase of 12.4% from the adjusted book value per diluted common share following the separation transactions, which was completed on January 3rd, 2023. The increase was a result of net income and net unrealized gains reported in our other comprehensive income. To conclude, I'm very pleased with our superior financial performance in the third quarter and through the first nine months of the year. I will now turn it back to Dan for additional remarks.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

To echo Allan, I'm pleased with the results for the quarter, and importantly, the first nine months of the year, where we outperformed on our key metrics of combined ratio, ROAE, and gross written premium growth. As market dislocation and the challenging risk environment persist, our ability to deploy capital and the experience and expertise of underwriting talent in a constrained market puts us in a strong position. Whilst we see significant growth potential in the current market, we are strongly aligned with the MGU and our underwriting philosophy, with both parties focused on delivering underwriting profitability across the cycle to preserve the bottom line. We continue to evaluate the best areas to achieve risk-adjusted returns across our three pillar portfolio, with the ability to be opportunistic in response to market dynamics.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

As we consider the balance of the year, we are well positioned with significant year-to-date growth, driven by the specialty market environment and a strong pipeline of opportunity in front of us. Persistent hard market conditions, in addition to already achieved compound increases, continue to present an attractive specialty marketplace with our lead positioning in major product lines such as property D&F, marine, and aviation, allowing us to achieve differential pricing, terms, and conditions, and capture significant rate increases, which results in above-market terms. This forms part of our underwriting advantage, which helps differentiate us from our peers. In bespoke, we are still seeing a strong pipeline of future opportunity, and we continue to evaluate this portfolio on a case-by-case basis in line with the economic and geopolitical environment and deal dynamics.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

The portfolio is strategically important to us, and while there may be fluctuations quarter-to-quarter, we remain focused on our long-term view of the opportunity and the nimble approach our lead positioning and expertise allow for. In reinsurance, we continue to capitalize on favorable market dynamics, deploying capacity at targeted levels without increasing portfolio exposures or compromising our view of risk. The Fidelis Insurance Group strategy remains consistent: to proactively manage and allocate capital to opportunities, to maintain financial strength, to continue to be nimble and target areas of growth, and to focus on profitable underwriting. Our approach remains disciplined, and we continue to demonstrate our ability to create value for shareholders through our platform, which ensures a strong balance sheet and a prudent approach to capital management and investment return to deliver results across both top and bottom line.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

I'm proud of the talented team of 80 individuals we have brought together at the Insurance Group. With a wide range of expertise, our performance is only made possible through their commitment and dedication to our business. Now I'll turn to the operator for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a 3-tone prompt acknowledging your request. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the number two. Before we take your questions, I'd like to remind everyone to please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. With that, our first question comes from the line of Matt Carletti from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Matt Carletti
Matt Carletti
Managing Director at JMP Securities

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Dan, last quarter, there was some talk of. You talked a bit about some of the Russia, Ukraine, you know, exposure, and your reserving philosophy, so on. Since then, you know, there's been some, what seem like major developments. I'm referencing the AerCap settlement, and a couple of other follow-ons. Can you just update us on kinda your view of that exposure, particularly in light of those developments?

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah. Thanks, Matt, and good morning. Thanks for joining us. Yeah, I think-

Matt Carletti
Matt Carletti
Managing Director at JMP Securities

Good morning.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Fundamentally, you know, we take, we monitor that situation, and I think we see a trajectory that's in line with our expectation. Obviously, three or four negotiations between operators and lessors have come with a positive result, and that long term has an effect on the exposure to the market. So whilst there's no definitive answer we can give you yet, I think we're just very pleased with the trajectory, and we'll continue to monitor.

Matt Carletti
Matt Carletti
Managing Director at JMP Securities

Okay, great. And then one other, if I could. I was hoping you could just kinda dig into specialty a little bit more and just, you know, give us your updated thoughts on, you know, there's lots of various lines of business in there, but kind of where you see the greatest opportunity, and then maybe just remind us of, you know, where, where those renewal dates fall. So in other words, in the coming quarters where you might, you'll have the most opportunity because there, there's a lot of seasonality in that business.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah. And you know, thanks for that question. So specialty, as you know, is the biggest pillar within the portfolio. It's driven primarily by three lines of business, which is direct property D&F, marine, and aviation. I think when we look at the property D&F, which is the biggest component, that is a portfolio that revolves across the year. There are some key renewal dates, 1/1 and one for mid-year, but there is a regular flow and a regular pipeline throughout the year. Marine and aviation are probably a little bit more seasonal. When we look at aviation, that's heavily loaded towards Q4, and marine, more around 1/1, although again, it does revolve throughout the year, but there's a lot of business at 1/1.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

So when we think about specialty and growth, you know, year to date, or year over year, we're up 46%. We're 26% ahead of our plan, so very pleased with that portfolio, that pillar. But you know, opportunities to grow in marine and aviation are really coming up in the next couple of quarters. What we see is compound increases over the last four or five years. We have seen no signs of softening in that market. Quite the contrary, we're continuing to see increases, improvements in terms and conditions. So very, very pleased with the performance. As you say, when you look at our combined ratio year to date, you know, that's heavily driven by the specialty pillar, so lots of opportunity, very big pipelines, so we can see continued growth in the future in that pillar.

Matt Carletti
Matt Carletti
Managing Director at JMP Securities

Great. Thanks, Dan. Appreciate the color.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead.

Meyer Shields
Meyer Shields
Managing Director at KBW

Great. Thanks, and good morning. This is an operational question, I guess, in Bespoke. It sounds like it's less about fewer deals coming to you and more about concerns about rate adequacy. And I was hoping you could take us through what actually happens when you've worked on a deal and your sense is that it's not priced adequately. How often does that translate into a better priced deal? How often does it just go away?

Ian Houston
Ian Houston
Chief Underwriting Officer at Fidelis Insurance

That's a great question. I think, you know, when we look at the Bespoke pillar, you know, we don't manage that on quarter-to-quarter. It's a long-term view. As we do with our whole portfolio, it's a long-term view through the cycle, but it's particularly important when looking at Bespoke. You have to have a long-term view.

Ian Houston
Ian Houston
Chief Underwriting Officer at Fidelis Insurance

So, Bespoke is also more sensitive than any other pillar to geopolitical and economic landscape changes. So, we take a very deliberate and measured approach to how we underwrite that book of business. What we can say, and I think Richard said it in his remarks, when we think about COVID, we had a similar approach, and COVID was probably the ultimate stress test on the portfolio, certainly when we think about aviation financing, and that came through with flying colors. So, it validates all of your assumptions. We know we have a high hurdle rate for bespoke. We're just not willing to compromise that in any way for top-line growth. It's all about bottom-line profitability, and that's how we assess and manage the underwriting process. I think it's a really good demonstration of the alignment between the MGU and the insurance group.

Ian Houston
Ian Houston
Chief Underwriting Officer at Fidelis Insurance

They could write for top-line growth, but, you know, between us, we kind of reset the hurdle. That will evolve as the dynamics change, and that's all about protecting the bottom line profitability and underwriting integrity. So another great kind of demonstration of the alignment of the two structures together.

Meyer Shields
Meyer Shields
Managing Director at KBW

Okay, no, that's very helpful. And just a quick follow-up on aviation. I guess we have a sense that it's fourth quarter heavy. Is there any just approximation of how much of the aviation market actually is renewed in the fourth quarter?

Ian Houston
Ian Houston
Chief Underwriting Officer at Fidelis Insurance

Yeah. So the airlines is a Q4. There are some manufacturers that we knew in the middle of the year, but it's the majority of the major airline fleets, both the globals and the national, you know, the regional carriers.

Meyer Shields
Meyer Shields
Managing Director at KBW

Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Tracy Benguigui
Tracy Benguigui
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Thank you. My first question relates to your decline in gross written premium year-over-year, which is mostly driven by Bespoke. I appreciate both, Dan, your commentary, and Richard Brindle's prerecorded commentary on Bespoke. I get this business is lumpy, but Dan, I'm intrigued by your comment that you're deliberately taking a measured approach, given the lingering concerns around the current environment. It is not clear to me if that was a Fidelis decision or an MGU decision. I'm just trying to get a sense if this is an example of your right of first refusal.

Ian Houston
Ian Houston
Chief Underwriting Officer at Fidelis Insurance

Yeah. Tracy, we always look to collaborate, as you know, and as we explained before, you know, we do sit on the daily underwriting calls, so we're involved from the very beginning, when deals are sourced, you know, how they're going to be structured, how they're going to be underwritten. So it's very collaborative. That is a joint decision. So, you know, Richard, you know, really, really wants to protect the integrity of the underwriting. You know, the PC is very important to them, so it's all about bottom line profitability. But we're not--neither party is here to grow top line just for the sake of it. It's all about bottom line profitability.

Tracy Benguigui
Tracy Benguigui
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Okay, so it's a collaborative decision?

Ian Houston
Ian Houston
Chief Underwriting Officer at Fidelis Insurance

Yeah. Absolutely.

Tracy Benguigui
Tracy Benguigui
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Okay, great. All right, year-over-year, your underlying loss ratio deteriorated, and I get part of that is business mix. While you sounded upbeat about pricing, can you contextualize if any of this deterioration is due to maybe a more narrow spread of pricing versus loss trends?

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

No, I wouldn't say, Tracy, it was a narrowing of the spread between pricing and loss trends. I think we tend to look at it over a longer time period. So if you look at the year to date run rate, we're pretty much in line year on year. This quarter last year was particularly low on the attritional side. We also tend to focus on the overall loss ratio, and there's a number of reasons for that. I mean, if I look at the difference between prior year development and current year, to kick that off. On the attritional side, we tend to hold classes around our plan expectation for the current year, unless something there made us increase, really. So it really can only go up on the current accident year, typically.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

Then what you get is all the favorable development will come through the next year as prior year development. So for me, on the attritional side, you really need to put the current and prior accident years together to get a view of that. I appreciate you can't get that split currently in what we report. Moving over to attritional versus cat, there's a couple of points there. One is mix. I mean, mix does impact us more than some others because we're a nimble company, so it's constantly changing. And if I give some live examples of how that impacts attritional versus large split, if you think about a war account, that would have a very low attritional run rate, but more loading towards the large side.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

If you compare that to an airlines account or marine hull, that would have a much higher attritional run rate. The mix between those different lines, even within a single pillar, such as specialty, can change how attritional versus large looks. In addition, as the actuals come through, I mean, we often see some quarters with. We often see some quarters where we have two medium-sized losses and no large losses, which makes the attritional look inflated when compared to the large and cat. And if one of those increased a bit, then it would flip over, and the story would be the other way. While I think you can look through the buckets at this level of detail over a longer time period, is something that we expect some variation on, quarter-to-quarter for those reasons.

Tracy Benguigui
Tracy Benguigui
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Could you, because you mentioned it, can you define the threshold for large losses?

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, Tracy, it's Allan. We currently don't define that. I think for. There is a clue in the fact that we have disclosed that hurricane, sorry, the wildfires in Hawaii were $21 million. So that's a threshold that you can think about in terms of what we disclose as, as, not cat.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

Just to be clear, we do define it internally. It's just not something we've shared externally at this point.

Tracy Benguigui
Tracy Benguigui
Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Please go ahead.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hey, great, good morning. Just, just sticking with the Bespoke segment. So the loss ratio was approximately 10 points above consensus expectations. And I, you know, usually don't ask the question this way, but just, you know, since your more recent IPO, just trying to understand, was this the loss ratio this quarter normal volatility? Is this considered normal? And any help you could provide, you know, you gave good color on why the premiums are down, so maybe that's, that's what's correlated with the loss ratio being a bit higher. But if you could offer any context around the loss ratio, that'd be helpful.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, sure. I'll take that one. So on the Bespoke segment, we've got a couple of large losses that have come through this quarter. I mean, again, if we look at it over a slightly longer time horizon, and you look at the year-to-date loss ratio, we're well ahead of our own expectations there. So for me, it's just a timing issue. If we had one large loss, we probably would have been on plan this quarter, zero ahead of plan. And if you look over a wider time period, if those losses had been more evenly distributed through the year, then you wouldn't have seen this impact on a quarter. So there's no trend or anything we're reacting to in that pillar, and I would call it normal quarter-to-quarter variation in the loss ratio in line with our expectations.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay, and those large losses are geopolitical-related losses?

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

They're on the intellectual property accounts, so no, they're not geopolitical related.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Understood. Okay, and maybe just switching gears to the expense ratio, looks like, sounds like from the prepared commentary, this is like the, obviously, there's moving parts on business mix, but would you say, you know, at this level of ROE, the, you know, this, this is the type of expense ratio we should be thinking and including the MGU, ceding commission ratio?

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, I think that both the MGU expenses and our general administrative expenses are in line with expectations, given the framework agreement we have in place and given our current operating model. Ultimately, we believe our combined ratio represents the best measure of our performance. And year-to-date performance is clearly above what we had in our original target ROE that we disclosed in our IPO. So as a result, you know, there's an increased profit commission to the MGU, and there's some increase in expenses as a result of above planned performance. There is variation in fees from quarter-to-quarter.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

However, the ceding commission should be relatively known going forward, and as a result of, again, as a result of good performance going forward for the first nine months, there is a commission payable under the profit commission structure, but otherwise, it's totally in line with what we would expect.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay, got it. And maybe, Allan, one last follow-up, just on. I know, I think there's still some points that need to be hammered out on Bermuda and the tax agreement, but should we be kind of directionally thinking closer to 15% tax rate in 2025 or still TBD, and we need to kind of just keep our eye or our ears peeled for how the framework comes together?

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, it's still too early to comment, but we continue to engage with our trade group, the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers, as well as the Bermuda government. We will evaluate the tax proposal as it develops. There's still a lot of moving parts on this, the proposed taxes, and we'll provide more clarity as time moves forward.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

I guess this is a follow-up, but would you say, Allan, if the headline comes in as $15, you know, will there be potential offsets that we should, you know, we should be, you know, that, that the companies are paying that, that could make it less than $15, sorry, that's my last follow-up.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, clearly, there are offsets coming. Even the latest press release from the government a couple of weeks ago indicated that the offsets are being worked on, but that is the one area that is the least developed, so we're not clear on those offsets. Hence why our caution in terms of communicating how it affects us. But everyone knows the headline rate, but it's the offsets that we're not clear on at this point.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yaron Kinar
Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I wanted to turn back to the Bespoke segment. So, I understand you're being prudent here with choosing maybe to, or not maybe, but choosing to prioritize profits and margins over growth. That said, I think part of the story as you came to market was improving the operating leverage, and given that these are very long-term contracts, multi-year contracts, the earn-in of premiums takes a while. So as you prioritize profits here, ultimately, how are you thinking about the ability to get to targeted operating leverage?

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, Yaron, it's Allan. Thanks for that. Absolutely. We, as we have communicated previously, the Bespoke segment premium does take a little longer to earn than certainly reinsurance, nat cat, or some of our specialty lines, and hence why we are very measured in terms of that line of business. And as we communicated previously, they can be lumpy in terms of when they come in and from quarter-to-quarter. Certainly, our operating leverage is an area that we continue to look at. We're in line with our peers, we believe, in terms of our underwriting leverage, i.e., underwriting premium written versus our equity. However, as we've pivoted from more of a reinsurance nat cat entity to a specialty and bespoke company going forward, we believe that there's some efficiencies that we can develop in terms of underwriting leverage.

Allan Decleir
Allan Decleir
CFO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Bespoke is certainly one area where you get certain capital efficiency when you do write that business. Ultimately, it's about risk versus reward, and we're not gonna put new premium on the books that we're not comfortable with.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, and I'll just add, I think, you know, we have a very, very significant pipeline in the bespoke pillar. So as with COVID, we took a very measured approach, and then you're able to take the upside. You're able to go risk on when you know there's more certainty in the market, and I think that's the approach we'll be taking over the next couple of quarters.

Yaron Kinar
Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies

Got it. And maybe one follow-up on the bespoke side. So I would have thought, and please correct me if I'm wrong here, but I would have thought that at a time of greater uncertainty, geopolitical and other, would actually create greater opportunities, and maybe would be an opportunity to really see an acceleration of growth. So can you help us think about that?

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, and I think that's exactly what we saw post-COVID. So it was a kind of short-term pause. We saw the deals come back, better priced, better terms and conditions, better structures. That's exactly what we expect to see this time. I'd be more worried if there was no pipeline, but it has created pipeline. It's now about executing on those trades as they hit our hurdle rate.

Yaron Kinar
Yaron Kinar
Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Pablo Singzon
Pablo Singzon
VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan

Hi, thank you. So the first question I have is on Bespoke. I appreciate your more cautious stance in writing new business there, but I, I was curious if the economic uncertainty today affects any of the loss picks and reserving on your in-force book, given that, you know, these policies were priced several years ago?

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

We factor that in when we write the underlying risks, so we're comfortable with the portfolio we've already written. It's the best stress test it had was through the COVID process. So we've taken a similar approach as what we did there. We'll go back, we'll revisit the underlying assumptions, and we'll decide if we want to make any adjustments and how that should flow through to reserving. But because when we price that business originally, we tend to include loadings around current economic conditions, so we take a more prudent view anyway, then quite often we're comfortable with the overall level that we reserve that and don't need to make any adjustment.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

So I take the most comfort on how we came through COVID on that, which had a wide economic impact over a number of lines of business and a very specific economic impact for things like our AFIC account, which was loans on aircraft, which were heavily impacted by COVID, for example. So this time around, it feels like it's not quite as intense as COVID, I don't think, but we're well prepared to react to anything as it happens. But no, we haven't felt the need to make any adjustments on the reserving side to date.

Pablo Singzon
Pablo Singzon
VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan

Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up question was on the specialty business. So, Dan, recognizing your comments that, you know, net written premiums there have grown more than 40% year to date, but 3Q growth did slow from the first half of the year, right? And from your comments, it seems like, you know, market conditions have not deteriorated. And, you know, while aviation and marine have key renewal dates, you know, property, property D&O gets placed more evenly. So, as you just focus on the score and think about the year-on-year growth here, is that just a reflection of more challenging comparisons, maybe some other factor, or you just chalk it up to seasonality and normal variation?

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

I think we, yeah, I think we chalk it up to seasonality. You know, we don't run the business quarter-to-quarter, so we look at the year to date. We're above plan. We're well above where we were this time last year, so that's pleasing, and we're more profitable. So, you know, when we look at our key metrics, we're outperforming, out-delivering, you know, and that's how I look at the business, not on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

Pablo Singzon
Pablo Singzon
VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan

Okay. And would it be fair to assume, given what you've said about aviation, that, you know, there should be an uptick from the third quarter number as we look into fourth Q?

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, I think, you know, it's heavily focused. The renewal date is that kind of Q4 period, so we would expect to see, you know, an active season for the aviation portfolio.

Pablo Singzon
Pablo Singzon
VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Ward from Citi. Please go ahead.

Mike Ward
Mike Ward
VP and Senior Analyst at Citi

Hi. Thanks, guys. Good morning.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Morning.

Mike Ward
Mike Ward
VP and Senior Analyst at Citi

Maybe on the IP space, some losses this quarter, some headlines elsewhere on IP. Just wondering if that is impacting your appetite in Bespoke, and if you could help us quantify the total exposure reserves for IP.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Well, I'll take the first part. I think when we look at bespoke, you know, what we try and build is a very diversified portfolio. So we try and have product lines that don't correlate. So yes, we have had an IP loss or two in the quarter. That doesn't really impact our view on the other lines of business. You know, IP is a new product line. It's the innovation is kind of growing in that space. Obviously, it had some impact from Vesttoo as well, but maybe I'll pass to Jonny to talk about the reserving.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yes, it's a higher rate online product than some of the other products we write in the Bespoke pillar. So what that means is we'd expect a higher run rate of claims as a result of that. Given there's a small number of deals done to date, we're able to monitor them at an individual level. So we can look at the individual economics of ongoing deals and react to that from a reserving point of view as we go. So that helps with the reserving in that area. In terms of claims, the main ones we've had to date are the two that we've disclosed this quarter in the Bespoke. So comfortable where we're reserved because we're able to actively monitor things quarter-to-quarter. It's a small number of deals so far.

Mike Ward
Mike Ward
VP and Senior Analyst at Citi

Okay. Okay. And then I think you mentioned economic slowdown in some of the commentary. Just wondering if anything has changed in the quarter that sort of caused you to be a little bit more cautious, or is there any overall shift in the targeted mix?

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

No, I think we're consistent to the plan, you know, and we're out delivering against that plan. So, you know, while there are, you know, tensions in the Middle East to consider now as well, I think we just continue to take that kind of very deliberate, measured view. But I think to the earlier question, it creates a lot of opportunity. We saw that of Russia, Ukraine. So, you know, we're well positioned to take advantage of that as well.

Mike Ward
Mike Ward
VP and Senior Analyst at Citi

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up question coming from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Please go ahead.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hey, great. Just, one quick follow-up on the, IP losses. You know, since you said it's a new line of business, you know, maybe you can just give us a really quick education on what is a IP claim and what, you know, maybe, I'm being asked just, you know, what type of insurance you're offering so we better understand how to think about this line of business for IP.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

So these are loans that are backed by intellectual property assets. So it's similar to sort of our AFIC product, where we back a loan backed by an underlying aircraft as the collateral, but here the collateral is the IP. So we think about it in a similar way. I mean, we look at the credit risk of the company when we're pricing it and also look at the valuation around the IP. And then as the claim materializes, it's about looking at ways to restructure, to minimize that claim to us. It's looking about how we can realize any value from the underlying IP assets. And then quite similar to other lines of business that we write in the bespoke pillar, really.

Jonny Strickle
Jonny Strickle
Chief Actuarial Officer at Fidelis Insurance Group

The difference is the type of asset that's backing the loan here is intellectual property rather than something like an aircraft.

Mike Zaremski
Mike Zaremski
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you. Helpful.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Pablo Singzon
Pablo Singzon
VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan

Hi, thanks for taking my follow-up and squeezing me in. So, any major changes you expect in your reinsurance program, your outward reinsurance program, and I guess more specifically, if you could touch your expectations on the traverse hold account Quota Share as we approach the beginning of 2024 here?

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Yeah, I'm happy to do that one, Pablo. No, the short answer is, it's a very similar strategy year on year. We already have indications of the whole account quota share partnership, which will continue into 2024, where we're looking to maintain our core quota share relationships. We're very thankful to the partners that share our risk with us. And also moving forward to 2024, we will look to renew the Herbie capital suite as well as those platforms for you. So a very similar year-on-year strategy.

Pablo Singzon
Pablo Singzon
VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Dan Burrows for closing remarks.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Thank you. Thank you again, everyone, for joining us today. In closing, we have built on our strong first half-year performance with an excellent third quarter that's demonstrated the value of our market lead positioning, our business model, and our structure, which allows for strong execution across all aspects of our strategy. Now, looking ahead, we believe we have a unique and diverse portfolio mix, with scale across our three business pillars. Our differentiated underwriting positions as well to take advantage of the opportunities we see in markets today, as well as to navigate across market cycles, and our highly experienced management team brings valuable relationships spanning across multiple disciplines in the insurance ecosystem. We remain focused on deploying capital towards profitable underwriting opportunities, while increasing our scale to drive long-term, sustainable growth and value for all of our shareholders.

Dan Burrows
Dan Burrows
CEO at Fidelis Insurance Group

Again, thank you for joining us, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Allan Decleir
      Allan Decleir
      CFO
    • Dan Burrows
      Dan Burrows
      CEO
    • Ian Houston
      Ian Houston
      Chief Underwriting Officer
    • Jillian Benson
      Jillian Benson
      Group Head of Reporting
    • Jonny Strickle
      Jonny Strickle
      Chief Actuarial Officer
Analysts
    • Matt Carletti
      Managing Director at JMP Securities
    • Meyer Shields
      Managing Director at KBW
    • Mike Ward
      VP and Senior Analyst at Citi
    • Mike Zaremski
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
    • Pablo Singzon
      VP of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan
    • Richard Brindle
      CEO and Chairman at Fidelis MGU
    • Tracy Benguigui
      Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
    • Yaron Kinar
      Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies
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