Packaging Corporation of America Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Packaging Corporation of America EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.65
• Consensus EPS: $2.50
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.15
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.05

Packaging Corporation of America Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.18 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.09 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$87.93 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +14.90%

Packaging Corporation of America Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 10/22/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, October 23, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) (NYSE: PKG) is a leading North American manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products. The company produces a range of paper-based packaging solutions including linerboard, corrugating medium, corrugated shipping containers, retail-ready packaging and point-of-purchase displays. In addition to core packaging products, Packaging Corporation of America offers packaging design, testing and supply-chain services intended to optimize protection, cost and sustainability for customers.

Headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois, the company operates an integrated network of mills and corrugated manufacturing facilities across the United States and serves customers throughout North America in industries such as e-commerce, grocery and food & beverage, consumer packaged goods and industrial markets. Its operations span production of both recycled-fiber containerboard and virgin-fiber grades, and the company maintains logistics and converting capabilities to support regional and national supply requirements.

Packaging Corporation of America is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker PKG and has expanded its footprint through investments in manufacturing capacity and strategic growth initiatives. The company emphasizes sustainability and recycling as part of its product and operational strategy, reflecting the cyclical and resource-focused nature of the paperboard and corrugated packaging sector. Packaging Corporation of America is managed by a corporate leadership team and board of directors responsible for executing its manufacturing, commercial and sustainability objectives.

Packaging Corporation of America Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• EPS beat guidance: Q3 net income was $238 M or $2.64 per share ($2.65 excluding special items), outperforming guidance by $0.20 thanks to higher volumes and price/mix in Packaging plus lower freight and outage costs.
• Record Packaging performance: Packaging EBITDA margin rose to 22.2% on $2.0 B sales as containerboard production, total box shipments and shipments per day all reached quarterly highs.
• Paper segment margin expansion: Paper EBITDA hit $43 M on $159 M sales, a 27.0% margin up from 22.4% a year ago, driven by successful price increases and strong back-to-school volume.
• Strong cash generation and liquidity: Q3 delivered $180 M free cash flow, ending with $841 M in cash and $1.2 B in liquidity, while deploying $680 M in high-return capital projects.
• Q4 outlook tempered: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $2.47 reflects impacts from two fewer shipping days, Florida crop damage and higher seasonal operating and outage costs.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's third quarter 2024 earnings results conference call. Your host will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Kowlzan. Sir, please proceed when you are ready.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in Packaging Corporation of America's third quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. Again, I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA, and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, who runs our packaging business, and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, I'll begin the call with an overview of our third quarter results, and then I'll turn the call over to Tom and Bob, who'll provide further details. Then I'll wrap things up, and we'll be glad to take questions later. Yesterday, we reported third quarter net income of $238 million or $2.64 per share.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Excluding special items, third quarter 2024 net income was $239 million or $2.65 per share, compared to the third quarter of 2023 net income of $185 million or $2.05 per share. Third quarter net sales were $2.2 billion in 2024 and $1.9 billion in 2023. Total company EBITDA for the third quarter, excluding special items, was $461 million in 2024 and $388 million in 2023. Details of special items for both the third quarter of 2024 and 2023 were included in the schedules that accompanied our earnings press release.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Excluding special items, the $0.60 per share increase in third quarter 2024 earnings compared to the third quarter of 2023 was primarily driven by higher volume of $0.94 and prices and mix, $0.03, in the packaging segment, higher volume in the paper segment for $0.03, lower freight and logistics expenses of $0.09, lower scheduled outage expenses for $0.06, and lower interest expense for $0.05. These items were partially offset by lower prices and mix in the paper segment for $0.02, higher operating and converting costs, $0.51, and higher depreciation expense, $0.05, and other expenses, $0.02. The results were $0.20 above our third quarter guidance of $2.45 per share, primarily due to higher volume in our packaging and paper segments and higher prices and mix in the packaging segment.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Looking at our packaging business, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter of 2024, of $446 million with sales of $2 billion, resulted in a margin of 22.2% versus last year's EBITDA of $374 million, with sales of $1.8 billion and a 21.3% margin. The operational benefits of our capital spending program and the continued great focus and execution by our sales, customer service, mill, and corrugated products plant employees continued to deliver impressive results. Setting new all-time quarterly records for containerboard production, total box shipments, and shipments per day, while meeting the service and quality needs of our customers, would not have been possible without a long-term, well-thought-out strategic capital spending plan and the hard work and dedication of our employees.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Even with record production, as a result of the strong demand, we were not able to meet our inventory target at the end of the quarter. With some adjustments we made to the DeRidder Mill's scheduled outage plans for this year, plus 2 less corrugated shipping days during the fourth quarter, and with a lighter than average schedule in the first half of 2025, we do hope to reach our target by the end of the year. I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will provide further details on containerboard sales and the corrugated business.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Mark. The corrugated products demand strengthened throughout the quarter and, as Mark mentioned, resulted in record-breaking performance for our plants. Shipments per day were up 11.1% over last year's third quarter, and total shipments with 1 additional shipping day were up 12.9%. Versus the second quarter of 2024, shipments per day were up 5.8%, and total shipments with 1 less shipping day were up 4.1%. Outside sales volume of containerboard was 45,000 tons above last year's third quarter and 7,000 tons above the second quarter of 2024. Prices and mix came in ahead of expectations as implementation of our previously announced price increases for containerboard and corrugated products was managed very well.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix together were up $0.35 per share versus the second quarter of 2024 and flat compared to the third quarter of 2023. Export containerboard prices were up $0.03 per share compared to the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2023. I'd like to mention that in addition to ensuring our customers' quality and service needs were met during a record-breaking quarter, our employees did not get complacent. Their focus on continuous improvement regarding customer service as well as efficiency, quality, productivity, and optimization improvements across our packaging segment is relentless and drives our industry-leading results. They fully understand that there are always areas that can be improved upon, even with record-setting performance. Now I'll turn it back to Mark.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Tom. Looking at our paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter, was $43 million, with sales of $159 million, or a 27.0% margin compared to the third quarter of 2023, EBITDA of $35 million and sales of $158 million, or a 22.4% margin. Our previously announced price increases were implemented as planned, with average prices and mix up 2% versus second quarter 2024 levels, and down 2% versus the third quarter of 2023. Volume, which exceeded forecasting levels, had very good back-to-school shipments and strong printing and converting demand. Volume was up 4% versus the third quarter of 2023, and was 5% above the second quarter of 2024.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Mill operations were managed very well, with excellent machine efficiencies and material usage, especially with chemicals and energy. And now I'll turn it over to Bob for more financial details.

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations during the quarter totaled $327 million, with free cash flow of $180 million. The more significant cash payments during the quarter included capital expenditures of $147 million. Common stock dividends totaled $112 million, $77 million for federal and state income tax payments, and $26 million for pension and other post-employment benefit contributions. We ended the quarter with $841 million of cash, including marketable securities, and our liquidity on September thirtieth was approximately $1.2 billion. Lastly, our planned annual maintenance outage expense for this year has changed slightly due to the adjustments made to the DeRidder Mill outage that Mark referred to earlier. The third quarter outage impact was $0.17 per share or $0.03 unfavorable to our previous guidance.

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

And the new estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.29 per share or $0.04 favorable to our guidance. The total estimate for the year is $0.87 per share. I'll now turn it back over to Mark.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Bob. Looking ahead, as we move from the third and into the fourth quarter, we expect demand in our packaging segment to remain strong, with corrugated shipments per day continuing to strengthen and slightly higher containerboard volume. However, total shipments for the corrugated business will be impacted by 2 less shipping days and the recent hurricane damage to the strawberry crops in Florida. With current containerboard inventory below our target levels, we will also attempt to build some inventory prior to year-end. We expect continued realization from the previously announced price increases and higher export prices, although with a seasonally less rich mix compared to the third quarter. In our paper segment, shipments will be lower versus the seasonally stronger third quarter, while prices and mix should be fairly flat.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Operating and converting costs are expected to increase, driven by higher seasonal energy costs and chemical costs. Scheduled outage costs are estimated to be $0.12 per share higher than the third quarter, and depreciation expense should be slightly higher also. Considering these items, we expect fourth quarter earnings of $2.47 per share. With that, we'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that some of the statements we've made on the call constituted forward-looking statements. The statements were based on current estimates, expectations, and projections of the company and do involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K and in subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

With that, Jamie, I'd like to open up the call for questions, please.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question and answer session. To ask your question, press star and one. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. We'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

First question, please.

[Operator]

Our first question today comes from George Staphos from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question, and congratulations on the progress so far. Gentlemen, I guess the first question I had, you know, standard: Can you talk a bit about where bookings and billings are to start the fourth quarter with whatever adjustment you want to make, either per workday or actual? And if you could shade or provide some color in terms of, you know, what end markets or product lines are seeing the most or least traction. Second question I had for you, you know, and you talked about it last quarter, and certainly didn't, you know, you had favorable results versus your guidance.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Can you talk about how whatever growth you're getting incrementally in the brown market, so to speak, is impacting your overall mix and, you know, sort of any implications for the outlook for earnings and EBITDA growth for the future?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Hey, George, this is Tom. I'll take that question.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Good morning, Tom.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

First of all, on a per-day basis, our bookings and billings are up just a little over 8%.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

... versus 2023. So, you know, we continue to be in a very nice growth mode. The end markets involve a little bit about your question regarding growth and mix as well. So, let me talk about the growth first and where we're seeing some end markets that are growing more than perhaps others. And probably the biggest difference that we're seeing right now is that the e-com area across the board, and of course, I've mentioned many times that we have, you know, a lot of e-commerce customers and that a lot of our customers got into e-com a number of years ago.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

That segment continues to grow nicely, and you know, that's evidenced by anything you see out there data-wise regarding, you know, big box stores and some of this other stuff. So, you know, a lot of online shopping. And then, on the other hand, some of that graphics mix, you know, which is POP-related, point of purchase displays, and things like that, those are pretty flat. So we've got, you know, one area growing quite nicely and another area that's been pretty flat over the last few years. You know, it's the same thing as we talked about in the past, because of consumer spending and because of kind of where consumers are right now.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

The durables certainly haven't performed as well as the non-durables, at least from our segments of business that we have. So, hopefully, that gives you enough understanding of kind of where we are and what we're seeing.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Tom, that's great. I, I guess my last one. I'll turn it over. Can you talk a little bit about what the crop damage might mean to you in terms of volume? And, you know, as you look out to next year, do you need to ramp any investment, whether it's working capital CapEx, to keep the growth that you'd like to have, you know, looking out to 2025, given how tough the comparisons are? Thanks, and good luck.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, George, that's a great question. Number 1 is, it's a little unknown how severe the crop damage is going to be. It's spotty all over the state of Florida, and of course, that's a very big market for us. So, we anticipate that what would traditionally be a full crop that would come in during the fourth quarter is now going to come in at the end of the fourth quarter and bleeding into the first quarter of next year, because they're gonna have to do a lot of replanting. All those plants were quite young, so, you know, that's what caused a lot of the damage.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Relative to CapEx and investments, as I've said many, many times, you know, we invest where the customers need us to invest, and we're continuing to do that. One of the commentary I said about our employees and what a great job all of our associates have done is because we've had a lot of capital projects going on while we've had this, you know, surge in demand, and you know, they've done just an unbelievably great job of making sure that we serviced our customers the way they need to be serviced with the quality of products that they demand.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, in keeping in line with that commentary, George, you know, as we said on the July call, you know, this year, we will worked on at least 60 major projects within our box plant system, with new corrugators, major corrugator rebuilds, new converting lines. You know, as we announced in July, we're you know, heavily engaged at this point in building out the new operations in Glendale, Arizona. That will start up early next year. And then, just going forward, we'll talk about this more in the January call, but we've got plans on the books to build out a couple of new big plants over the next 2.5-3 years also. But we will continue the pace of reinvestment in these plants.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

This has been the, it's, it's driven the capability to be where we are today. We said this on the call, I believe in July. If you include this year's capital spending over the last 5 years, we would have spent $2 billion just on the box plant system, recapitalizing and building out some new plants. And in many cases, in almost all cases, we've either quadrupled or increased even, even over that, the capability of these, these box plants to produce quality packaging for the customers. And so, we're not going to let up on that momentum that we have. That's what gives us the ability to grow and take care of our customers.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Understood. Thanks so much.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mike Roxland from Truist. Please go ahead with your question.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Thanks, Mark, Tom, Bob, for taking my questions, and congrats on a really good quarter.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Mike.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks. Appreciate it, Mike.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

You know, your volumes continue to outpace the industry and your nearest peers. And how should we think about your volumes and when growth should normalize? Is that something that should occur, you know, early next year, second half of next year, or could this even play out longer given the ongoing self-help and restructurings that your larger peers are going through?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Mike, you know, we plan to, you know, take advantage of every opportunity we get that, where we can profitably grow our revenue, and I think right now we're able to perform in a way that is very desirable for a lot of our customers. Certainly, most of our growth comes within our existing customers, and then, you know, we get opportunities outside of that as well, but you know, they happen to be looking for something we're able to deliver, and I think those opportunities will remain. Now, there's no question that starting next year, the comps are gonna get tougher. You know, we made a big jump this year.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

... But, you know, we, you know, our, you know, our key objective is profitable revenue growth, and we, you know, we'll continue to go down that path, and I'm very confident of it. Especially given the fact that, as I've mentioned many times, our capital expenditures are not a build it and hope they will come. It's we do it based on what our customers have asked us to do, and, you know, that provides us a lot of opportunities and efficiencies as well.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, Mike, what Tom just said about the comps, don't forget, last year's fourth quarter, I think we were up probably 5.5%-6% last year's fourth quarter over the prior year's fourth quarter. So the 8% he's calling up is over a very big comp. So again, if you also look back over the last 20 years, PCA has a track record of significantly outgrowing our customers on the packaging side year over year decade after decade, and we intend on continuing that trend.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Gotcha. That's great color. It sounds like, you know, Mark, Tom, based on what you just said, that you could probably outgrow your peers, probably at a faster rate than you had historically, given some of the moving pieces that are happening in the industry.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, I don't wanna... I, Mike, I don't wanna, you know, really compare-

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Sure

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

... ourselves to our competitors because we just basically stay focused on what our opportunities are, and we stay focused on our customers and what their demands are. And that kind that takes us forward.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Gotcha. Then one quick follow-up. Just, Mark, you said you put out a teaser, more details you mentioned some new plans you're looking to build out over the next few years. You mentioned, you know, more details in January. Anything you could share with us now on those new plans, particular regions? And Mark, is there anything you could share regarding what you're looking to accomplish with those new box plants over the next 2 to 3 years?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

No. We'll give you more details in January.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

Perfect. Sounds great. Thanks a lot, guys.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your question.

[Gabe Hajde, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Mark, Tom, Bob, good morning, and congrats on the good quarter.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Morning, Gabe. Thank you.

[Gabe Hajde, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

I wanted to dig in a little bit on a comment you made about a lighter maintenance outage schedule in H1 2025, marrying that up with, again, comments about having a little bit of difficulty, seemingly, rebuild inventories, and of course, that's a function of the performance. But it seems like to us in the outside world, I mean, maybe that's a little bit of marginal contribution on the production side, I don't know, 50,000 tons or something like that. Two-part question. One is, can you give us a sense for maybe the swing, H1 versus H2 on the maintenance outage? And second, you know, Mark, you guys have been really diligent about investing in the system and the business.

[Gabe Hajde, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

You've talked about before, being okay, being over-integrated, but you're seemingly kind of hitting red line right now in terms of your ability on the corrugator containerboard side, excuse me. How long could you buy more paper in the open market or maybe some thought there in terms of what the plan could be?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Gabe, I think you asked ten questions in that one question.

[Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist]

I'm sorry.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

First of all, as far as the outage schedule, where we're calling it lighter for next year, don't forget, we had that massive annual outage at Jackson to finish up the last phase of rebuild work at Jackson. That was about forty-some odd days worth of effort, and then just the learning curve through the springtime to get the machine up where we wanted it to be. But for the 2025 year, we won't have those types of outages at any of our mills. But frankly, we're planning on just the normal, routine annual outages, where we take the mills down, clean, inspect, routine boiler work, turbine work, machine, you know, efforts.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

So it ought to be a significantly lighter year in that regard, without calling out a lot of details. But that's what we were implying in that. As far as the containerboard supply into the market, never underestimate us. We have long-term plans on how we will take care of our customers. That's the discussion that we have internally every day. So I'm confident that for the next few years, we're going to be in a really great place to grow and take care of our customers' needs. That's all I want to say about that.

[Gabe Hajde, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay. And then I guess maybe, Bob, on the... You didn't mention any sort of share repurchase, $851 million, I think, on the balance sheet, but just good leverage position. What opportunities do you see for the capital on a go-forward basis?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Mark may be the better one to answer that, Gabe, but as you know, we always evaluate our, you know, how we allocate capital, looking for the biggest return for the shareholders, what makes sense for our, you know, our strategic capital spending plans. And that's, again, to be as opportunistic as we can with our share repurchases. Mark, unless you have something different, that's, I think that's how we'll continue.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, I think if you look at our capital spend, you know, this year, we called out, I think, the original number was $470 million. And then when we identified the opportunity down in the Phoenix area, which specifically Glendale, that number went up. Plus we saw some other opportunities within some of the plants for new corrugators and some converting lines. So

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

... So the call out for the rest of the year, I believe, is up closer to $700 million. Right now, it's $680 million as we sit here. But these are going into high return, you know, very, very valuable accretive opportunities within the system. And we've got a runway and a portfolio of those opportunities we're gonna continue to take advantage of. And quite frankly, that's the best use of our excess cash right now. And I do believe our investors tend to agree, and they do support the way we handle our cash.

[Gabe Hajde, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

I would agree with that. Thank you, guys.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Good deal. Next question?

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub, from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead with your question.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Thank you. Congrats on another great quarter. So just maybe a little bit following up along the lines of, you know, containerboard production, et cetera, and opportunities to increase. Where were you in terms of operating rates in the third quarter? Were you pretty full out? Was Wallula up and running full in the third quarter?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yes. You know, all the mills were up and running. Last year, if you'll recall, we brought Wallula back up, and then in January, I think we finished the startup of Wallula with the complete startup of the mill. So essentially, we've run Wallula full out this year. And then again, don't forget, though, we had the big, big shutdown at Jackson, so that was a big disruption. But as you could expect, we never sit still. We're always working on optimization opportunities at all of the mills, and so these will continue.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

But, I think the good news is that we continue to run in a very effective, very efficient manner of taking advantage of our assets and then planning out into the future years, where, I should say, containerboard will come from to supply the customer's needs on the corrugated side. And I'm very confident we've got a good plan for the next few years.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Understood. And are there potentially significant internal Jackson-type opportunities, or is it more, at least internally, gonna be, you know, a smaller projects, you know, across the board, perhaps?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

It's a combination. We've got a few projects identified right now, quite frankly. We've got, you know, some paper machines in the system that time goes by pretty quickly. Counce received the lion's share of capital spending in the 1990s and the early 2000s. You know, that's 25 years ago. And so we've got opportunities to look at Counce's number one machine as an example, and really do some things to that machine to get some good incremental capability out of that. Valdosta is another example of a machine that has incremental opportunity. And then, depending on how much capital you want to spend in the future years, you know, in terms of you know adding another paper machine, if we had to in the future years.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

But right now, for the next few years, we're in a very good place on how we take care of the customers with the containerboard supply.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Right. And just because it deserves a little attention, the paper segment did phenomenally in the quarter. The EBITDA margins, I guess it's now just I Falls, and that's always been, you know, a great facility for you. How much of it is it that, you know, everything that's now going through I Falls versus what else might have been going on that you basically, at least based on my numbers, were as strong as you've ever been margin-wise in the paper segment?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, I believe we had one quarter a couple of years ago that was at the same 27% level. But no, you know, we have I Falls. It's the one mill. It's producing close to 500,000 tons a year of uncoated free sheet production. That's a blend of the converting grades, and probably 75% of that is cut size for copy machine type paper. But that mill is hitting on all 8 cylinders, and it's been a great place and well-capitalized and great management, great employees. So, you know, we rationalized that paper business as we were converting the Boise assets.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

We're in a good place with the market, and we'll just continue to take advantage of that.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Super. Appreciate it. One last real quick one. I think you mentioned $0.87 for maintenance outage this year. If I heard you right, you're saying that might be lower next year. What would normal be for annual maintenance outages?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, Mark, it's, you know, normal, I don't know. It's, you know, this year, obviously, with Jackson, you know, included in that, it was, you know, higher than normal. But yeah, we've anticipated, and Mark sort of touched on it earlier, with, you know, just incremental volume next year. If you just looked at it from a change in our outage schedule this year to next year, you know, right now, at a high level, you know, there's probably close to 100,000 tons of additional production next year. So, you know, using that as sort of a way to get at, you know, what's normal would, you know, take that off of, you know, the $0.87, and that's probably a good ballpark.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Okay. Super. Appreciate it. Thank you.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you. Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Philip Ng, from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

[Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies]

... Hey, guys, congrats on another strong quarter. You're certainly lapping tougher year-over-year comps, but operating costs stepped up noticeably. Any color, Bob, I guess, perhaps what you're seeing, where it's a little bit more elevated? And are you starting to see that level off? And then I think you guys called out how, you know, Jackson and maybe some of the inefficiencies, some shutdowns, you know, was a drag this year. When we kind of look out to 2025, could this flip and be a good guy?

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

I think your first question, Phil. You know, to answer that, you know, we said, you know, on the last quarter's call, and, you know, it played out that way, that, you know, sequentially, costs, we didn't see a lot of increase. You know, obviously, sort of somewhat stable, slightly higher, but obviously at a very high level with all of the inflation that's been going on for several quarters. You know, if you're referring to year over year, you have to keep in mind that the third quarter of last year, we did not run Wallula, and we did this year. So this year, we brought in, you know, our highest cost, direct variable mill, along with a lot of indirects and things that you don't incur when you're shut down.

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You bring that on and, you know, there's probably close to $30 million of cost, just for that alone, third quarter this year versus last.

[Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. And when you think about 2025, with all that kind of level set, and as you kind of pointed out, you're starting to see that level off, could that operating cost be a good guy next year?

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

I mean, we'll have to see. Obviously, you know, keep in mind, you know, the first quarter was always you'll see a big jump because, you know, as we talk about every year with sort of the reload of a lot of the fringe benefits on the salary side of things, you have, you know, increases that go into effect, you know, in that first quarter, you know, so you'll expect a jump, you know, for that reason alone, fourth to first, but right now, obviously, we don't get too far ahead of ourselves regarding guidance, but you know, hopefully, if...

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

We don't see a lot of costs going down, but hopefully, they have moderated for a while for the next few quarters, and that would, you know, that would bode well for us next year.

[Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. And just some of the big inputs, OCC has come down a little bit, NG's been a little more favorable. Anything else to call out in terms of costs that you're seeing, good or bad, trend-wise?

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

No, like I just said, other than, you know, the 2 you mentioned, things are, you know, seem to be fairly, somewhat stable right now, Phil.

[Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, that's great, and when we think about your 3 key price mix, as you again pointed out, was better than we expected, I think a little better than you anticipated as well. Was that more mix, or is that more box price realization coming through perhaps a little quicker than you expected? In the fourth quarter, you know, per your guidance, do you pretty much have all the box price increases fully implemented by now?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Phil, this is Tom. On relative to the box price increase, you know, I'm gonna remind everybody here because there was some discussion about this earlier. You know, we have a very disciplined approach to our box price increase, and we do it by customer, by item, and we track every single one of them and make sure that they get implemented properly. And the timing of that hasn't changed. It's the same timing we've always gone through. We will have the lion's share of it through the third quarter. We will have some tracking into the fourth quarter, and actually, you know, a couple of contracts that trigger annually. So, you know, we'll have, you know, we'll have it, you know, pretty much implemented, certainly by the end of the fourth quarter.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, it's that certainly has had an impact, and I think our mix, you know, we've done a very, very good job of, as this mix has changed a little bit, figuring out how to produce that very effectively and efficiently, and that's helped us as well.

[Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies]

And Tom, these annual contracts triggering, did that trigger in 3Q or that triggers in the fourth quarter? Just wanna make sure I understand that comment.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

The couple of annual ones are on a calendar year, so they'll trigger at January 2025.

[Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies]

Oh, gotcha. Okay. Thank you. Appreciate all the color.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yep.

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you. Next question.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Citigroup]

Good morning.

[Bob Mundy, CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Good morning.

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Citigroup]

Tom, you talked about growth and maybe some business wins in e-commerce, and I'm curious, you know, historically, PCA has been really virgin-weighted, but you have, you know, the ability to swing into recycled. Is this new business like a bit more, you know, recycled based than your existing business? And as you think about adding maybe some incremental tons or debottlenecking, you know, over the next few years, do you think about the kind of virgin versus recycled mix maybe differently than you would have 5, 10 years ago? Or just kind of wondering if you can comment on that and maybe just that industry trend in the U.S., whether that, you know, the kind of mix in the lightweight recycled has really taken hold or maybe is overhyped, or how you're positioned there.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Anthony, we really, you know, we look at whatever the performance is that any customer needs. And we have done, you know, as we've talked about in the past, we've done some significant things in the mills to put us in a much better position to be able to, you know, run even lightweights and things like that. And that's been important to us. Now, we don't take that directly to any particular market or anything like that. We just are able to now react very well to whatever the customer needs and whatever their demands are, and we're able to do it on a performance basis that is most important.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

That really has always set us apart from the recycled industry, the 100% recycled boards, you know, and I think gives us somewhat of a competitive advantage. But again, it's not a-

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

... We're not purposeful about taking a particular grade or anything like that to the market. We actually work the other way and do whatever the customer needs and meet those needs.

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Citigroup]

Okay, that's helpful, and that makes a lot of sense. On inventories, you talked about, you know, you plan to build inventory in 3Q ahead of the October DeRidder outage, but you talked about inventories kind of still below target levels. I just wanna make sure I understand, like, is that really driven just by stronger than expected demand, or were there any other operational issues, technical issues, that led to that kind of shortfall relative to maybe earlier expectations on inventories?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, I mean, it was driven by demand. We did not-

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Citigroup]

Yeah

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP at Packaging Corporation of America]

-expect to see the kind of growth this year that we have experienced, and we've been talking about building inventory all year, and we've not yet succeeded in coming anywhere near close to where we should be. And so in some ways, though, it's not a bad place to be with the lower inventories. It keeps everybody on their toes, and that's not a bad place to be. Everybody knows how critical every minute of machine production is to the system, so everybody's fully engaged.

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Citigroup]

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you. Any other questions, please?

[Operator]

At this time, once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press Star and then one. To withdraw your question, you may press Star and two. And our next question comes from Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.

[Charlie Muir-Sands, Analyst at BNP Paribas]

Hi, sir. Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I've just got one remaining, actually. You touched a little bit on it earlier, but just in terms of the strength of volumes sequentially and particularly quarter on quarter, could you share any insight as to whether that is in particular coming from existing clients, existing business, or existing clients, new business, or, or indeed new, new clients? I appreciate we haven't obviously got the industry data yet, or your peers haven't reported either. I just wanna get some color around, where that incremental growth is coming from, you think.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Charlie, I will tell you that number one is it comes from our existing customers and growing within our existing customers. That's our primary target. But we have been fortunate enough to add other clients as well. And, you know, that's played very important because I think that our reputation we have in the marketplace is such that, you know, customers really do recognize the value you bring when you produce a quality product and you actually deliver it when you say you're gonna be there.

[Charlie Muir-Sands, Analyst at BNP Paribas]

Okay, thank you.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you. Any other questions, please?

[Operator]

Our final question today comes from Ryan Fox from Bloomberg. Please go ahead with your question.

[Ryan Fox, Analyst at Bloomberg]

Good morning, guys.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Good morning.

[Ryan Fox, Analyst at Bloomberg]

Can you maybe elaborate a little bit more about the higher operating costs and converting costs? I think you had mentioned the majority of that may have come from Wallula, but that may have only attributed to maybe two-thirds of that. Just curious to see what else was hanging out there.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, Ryan, you know, obviously, the other pretty much is, you know, higher OCC costs versus last year. That's, you know, that's the large number. And then labor and benefits would be another component. And those things that don't get talked about a lot, you know, that are part of, you know, building rentals, professional fees, you know, all the outside service costs. You know, they incur higher costs as well, and they pass those on to us and, you know, on a lot of fronts. Insurance, taxes, you know, a lot of those types of things are... That would be the other component.

[Ryan Fox, Analyst at Bloomberg]

Got it. I guess lastly, seems like a record quarter for containerboard production, almost 1.3 million tons. How much more do you have available per quarter, kind of theoretically?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

We won't get into that. Just suffice it to say that we've got plenty of capability to take care of our customers for the next few years.

[Ryan Fox, Analyst at Bloomberg]

Excellent. Thank you very much.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Do you have a follow-

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Any other questions?

[Operator]

We do have a follow-up question from George Staphos from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your follow-up.

[George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hi, guys. A quick one. Thanks for letting me sneak in. To the extent that you can comment, if we think about the next two years, and you had a stack rank where you do expect to be able to get the paper to serve the growth, and we think about 3 or 4 categories, you know, existing optimization and productivity across your mills, like you said, with Counce and Valdosta, conversions or outside purchases, how would you stack rank those in terms of how you'll supply the paper? Thanks, guys, and good luck in the quarter.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, for the next year, it will be just optimizing what we currently have, and then over the next few years, it's doing some bigger projects within our system. So again, we've got a good runway for the next few years that we've already thought out here.

[George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you, Mark.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Okay. With that, I believe. If there are any more questions, we've got time, but, Jamie, if... Is anybody else out there?

[Operator]

Mr. Kowlzan, I see there are no more questions at this time. Do you have closing comments?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yep. Thank you for joining us today. I really appreciate everybody's time, and look forward to talking with you at the end of January when we review the full year 2024 and the fourth quarter. Have a good rest of the day and a great holiday season. Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

Participants

Executives

• Bob Mundy, CFO
• Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO
• Tom Hassfurther, EVP

Analysts

• George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America
• Mike Roxland, Analyst at Truist
• Gabe Hajde, Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Charlie Muir-Sands, Analyst at BNP Paribas
• Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners
• Philip Ng, Analyst at Jefferies
• Ryan Fox, Analyst at Bloomberg
• Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Citigroup