Constellium Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Constellium EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.02
• Consensus EPS: $0.40
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.38
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.47

Constellium Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.64 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.80 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$159.51 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -4.70%

Constellium Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 10/23/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, October 23, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Constellium (NYSE:CSTM) is a global leader in the design and manufacture of high-performance aluminum products and solutions. The company serves key markets including aerospace, automotive, and packaging, offering advanced rolled and extruded aluminum sheet, plate and structural components. Its product portfolio encompasses precision-engineered parts for commercial and military aircraft, automotive body structures and closures, beverage and specialty packaging, as well as industrial and structural applications.

Established in 2011 through the consolidation of Rio Tinto Alcan’s rolled-products and engineered-products businesses, Constellium has built a reputation for innovation in lightweighting and sustainability. The company develops proprietary alloys and proprietary processes aimed at improving strength-to-weight ratios, enhancing corrosion resistance and reducing environmental impact. Constellium also operates recycling operations that recover and re-introduce aluminum into its manufacturing stream, supporting circular economy principles.

With headquarters in Amsterdam and corporate offices in Paris and Baltimore, Constellium maintains over 30 production and innovation facilities across Europe and North America. In Europe, major sites are located in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, while in North America, the company’s footprint includes manufacturing plants in the United States, serving both domestic and export markets. Constellium collaborates closely with major OEMs in aerospace and automotive to co-develop new alloys and components that meet evolving regulatory and performance requirements.

Led by President and Chief Executive Officer Benoît Ribadeau Dumas, Constellium emphasizes operational excellence, research and development, and long-term partnerships with customers. The company’s leadership team is focused on driving sustainable growth through continuous improvement in product innovation, process efficiency and global supply chain optimization. Constellium remains committed to meeting customer needs in a rapidly changing industrial landscape by leveraging its deep expertise in aluminum technology.

Constellium Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Shipments fell 5% year-over-year to 352,000 tonnes and revenue declined 5% to €1.6 billion, resulting in net income of €3 million versus €64 million in Q3 2023 and adjusted EBITDA of €110 million (or €130 million excluding flood and metal-lag effects).
• While packaging demand remained healthy, aerospace slowed due to OEM supply-chain challenges, automotive softened in North America and Europe, and industrial and specialty markets saw sharp declines.
• The June flood in Vale, Switzerland caused a €17 million adjusted EBITDA loss and €6 million cash hit; operations have partially resumed with full extrusion and plate output expected by November and ramp-up complete by Q1 2025.
• Constellium repurchased 1.2 million shares for $21 million in Q3, refinanced debt to extend maturities to 2028+, maintained €778 million in liquidity, and accelerated its Vision 25 cost-reduction program.
• For full-year 2024, the company forecasts €580–600 million in adjusted EBITDA (excluding the one-time flood impact and the non-cash metal price lag), has delayed its >€800 million 2025 target, but remains confident in long-term growth fundamentals.

Presentation

[Operator]

Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's Constellium Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Drew, and I'll be your moderator today. During today's call, we will have a Q&A session. To register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad, and if you wish to withdraw your question, then it is star followed by two. I'll now turn the call over to Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead, Jason.

[Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations at Constellium]

Thank you, Drew. I would like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2024 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

[Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations at Constellium]

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our IFRS disclosures. Before turning the call over to Jean-Marc, I wanted to remind everyone that earlier this year, we revised the definition of Adjusted EBITDA at the consolidated level based on prior discussions with the SEC.

[Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations at Constellium]

The new definition will no longer exclude the non-cash impact of metal price lag. We will continue to provide investors and other stakeholders with the non-cash metal price lag impact, as it is necessary to get a true assessment of the economic performance of the business. Our segment Adjusted EBITDA will continue to exclude this impact, and any guidance we provide for Adjusted EBITDA will also exclude the impact. And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Thank you, Jason. Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide five and discuss the highlights from our third quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. Our recordable case rate was lower in the third quarter, leading to a rate of 1.9 per million hours worked for the first nine months of the year. While this safety performance puts us among the best in manufacturing, the rate is still higher than where we want it to be. We all need to constantly maintain our focus on safety to achieve the ambitious targets we have set. It is a never-ending task for our company and one that we take very seriously. Turning to our financial results.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Shipments were 352,000 tons, down 5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, mainly due to lower shipments in A&T and AS&I. Revenue of EUR 1.6 billion decreased 5% compared to last year, primarily due to lower shipments partially offset by higher metal prices. We have run into technical difficulties. Can you hear me? Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net income of EUR 3 million in the quarter compares to net income of EUR 64 million in the third quarter last year. As a reminder, the third quarter last year included a EUR 36 million gain related to the sale of our CED business in Germany.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 110 million in the quarter, though this includes a negative impact at Valais in Switzerland of EUR 17 million as a result of the flood. This also includes a negative non-cash impact from metal price lag of EUR 3 million. If you were to exclude the impact of the flood and the impact of metal price lag, as Jason mentioned earlier, the real economic performance of the business reflects adjusted EBITDA of EUR 130 million in the quarter, compared to the EUR 168 million we achieved last year. Looking across our end markets, packaging demand remained healthy during the quarter. While the backlog in aerospace remains robust, aerospace demand has started to slow down and shift to the right as commercial aerospace OEMs are dealing with supply chain challenges and continue to struggle to increase build rates.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Automotive demand during the quarter started to soften in North America, while weakness accelerated during the quarter in Europe. We experienced a sharp decline in demand in North America in most industrial markets and further weakness in most industrial and specialties markets in Europe. Jack will go through our detailed segment performance in a few moments. Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was -EUR 10 million , which includes a negative impact at Valais of EUR 6 million as a result of the flood. I am pleased to report that we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 1.2 million shares for $21 million. I am also pleased to report that our new recycling center and casting center in Neuf-Brisach started up in September, slightly ahead of schedule and below budget.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Our leverage at the end of the third quarter was 2.8x, which is slightly above our target leverage range. As you can see, the third quarter was very challenging for us, as demand continued to weaken during the quarter in several end markets, and the weakness has now spread to some other end markets. In addition, the flood in Valais had a significant impact on our financial results during the quarter. I will give you a full update on the current situation in the Valais a little later on. With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. Please turn now to slide 7. Let's focus on our P&ARP segment performance. In the third quarter of 2024, P&ARP generated segment Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 61 million , which was down 9% compared to the third quarter last year. Shipments in P&ARP were stable versus the same quarter last year. Packaging shipments increased 3% in the quarter versus last year, as demand remained healthy in both North America and Europe. Automotive shipments decreased 6% in the quarter as demand started to weaken in North America and weakened further in Europe. Price and mix was stable compared to the third quarter last year. Costs were a headwind of EUR 6 million as a result of unfavorable metal costs, given tighter scrap spreads in North America, partially offset by lower operating costs.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Now turn to slide eight, and let's focus on the A&T segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 47 million decreased 41% compared to the record third quarter last year. Volume was a EUR 10 million headwind as a result of lower TID shipments. TID markets in North America saw a sharp decline during the quarter, and markets in Europe continued to weaken. TID shipments were also impacted at Valais as a result of the flood. Aerospace shipments were stable in the quarter. Price and mix was a headwind of EUR 12 million due to a softer pricing environment in TID and weaker aerospace mix in the quarter. Costs were a headwind of EUR 3 million. During the third quarter, A&T had a negative impact of EUR 7 million at Valais as a result of the flood. Now turn to slide nine, and let's focus on the AS&I segment.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 10 million decreased 61% compared to the third quarter last year. Volume was a EUR 2 million headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive and industry extruded products. Automotive shipments were down 9% in the quarter versus last year, as demand started to weaken in North America and weakened further in Europe. Industry shipments were down 35% in the quarter versus last year. As a result of further weakening in Europe, the sale of our German extrusion business in the third quarter last year, and the impact of Valais as a result of the flood this year. Price and mix was an EUR 8 million headwind, primarily due to a softer pricing environment in industry and weaker mix in the quarter. Costs were a tailwind of EUR 6 million on lower operating costs.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

FX and other was a headwind of EUR 2 million in the quarter. During the third quarter, AS&I had a negative impact of EUR 10 million at Valais as a result of the flood. It is not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. For energy, our 2024 costs are moderately more favorable compared to 2023, although energy prices remain well above historical averages. Labor and other non-metal costs continue to be higher this year, and given the pressure we're seeing in the market, we're accelerating our Vision 2025 cost improvement program, including additional fixed cost reduction efforts.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past, and we are confident in our ability to rightsize our cost structure for the current demand environment. Now, let's turn to slide 10 and discuss our free cash flow. Free cash flow was a -EUR 10 million in the third quarter, which includes a -EUR 6 million impact at Valais as a result of the flood. Year to date, we have generated free cash flow of EUR 57 million or EUR 63 million, excluding the impact of the flood. The year-over-year decrease in the first nine months is a result of lower segment-Adjusted EBITDA, higher capital expenditures and cash taxes, and the impact of the flood, which are partially offset by a favorable change in working capital and lower cash interest. As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

During the quarter, we repurchased 1.2 million shares for $21 million, bringing our year-to-date total to roughly 3.1 million shares, for just over $60 million. We plan to continue executing on the share buyback program. We're not giving guidance on free cash flow for 2024 at this point. Given the rapid changes in market conditions during the third quarter and the actions we're taking internally to manage the current environment, there are many moving pieces, and we do not have certainty yet what will come in the fourth quarter of this year versus the first quarter next year. However, we remain focused on generating consistent free cash flow. Now, let's turn to slide 11 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

At the end of the third quarter, our net debt of EUR 1.7 billion increased slightly compared to the end of 2023. Our leverage was 2.8x at the end of the quarter, we're up 0.3x versus the end of the third quarter of 2023, and slightly above our target leverage range. We remain committed to maintaining our leverage in a target range of 0.5x-2.5x over time, and at this stage, we expect leverage to trend down to our target leverage range in 2025. During the quarter, we successfully refinanced both the USD- and EUR-denominated senior notes that were due in 2026. Also, during the quarter, we extended the U.S. ABL maturity to 2029 and increased the commitment to $550 million from $500 million previously.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2028. Our liquidity remains strong at EUR 778 million as of the end of the third quarter. We're extremely proud of the progress we have made on our capital structure and of the financial flexibility we're building, including the ability to continue returning capital to our shareholders. With that, I'll now hand the call back to Jean-Marc.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 13 and discuss our current end market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets, benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven, secular growth, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. However, in the short term, many of these markets are facing headwinds. Turning first to the aerospace market. Commercial aircraft backlogs are robust today and continue to grow. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide-body aircraft, although supply chain challenges are again slowing deliveries of completed aircraft. As a result, aerospace supply chains need to adjust to lower-than-expected build rates, which is causing a shift in demand to the right of some of our products.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Despite the slowdown in the near term, we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remains intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand remains healthy in the business and regional jet and defense markets. Turning now to automotive. Automotive OEM production of light vehicles in Europe remains well below pre-COVID levels and is still below pre-COVID levels in North America as well. In the quarter, automotive demand started to soften in North America, while demand further weakened in Europe, particularly in the luxury and premium vehicle and electric vehicle segments, where we have greater exposure. As a result of the weakness in automotive, we have seen many global automotive OEMs reduce their outlooks at least once in the last two quarters.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

In the long term, vehicle electrification and sustainability trends will continue to drive demand for lightweighting and use of aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive on this market over the longer term in both regions, despite the weakness we are seeing today. Let's turn now to packaging. Inventory adjustments in can stock are behind us, and demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe. Promotional activity at the retail level is up year-over-year, but remains below historical levels. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions, and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid-single-digits in both North America and Europe.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Our new recycling and casting center in Neuf-Brisach started up in September, slightly ahead of schedule and below budget. The facility is running strong and should ramp up quickly. Muscle Shoals, on its end, has made progress and had a solid third quarter production-wise. We're encouraged by the improved performance we have seen there recently, and we expect operations to continue to improve as the year progresses. As you can see on the page, these three core end markets represent just over 80% of our last 12 months revenue. Turning lastly to other specialties. During the quarter, we saw sharp declines in demand in North America, and demand continued to weaken in Europe. At this point, we have experienced weakness across most specialties market for more than two years now.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

As a reminder, these markets are typically dependent on the health of the industrial economies in each region, including drivers like the interest rate environment, industrial production levels, and consumer spending patterns. We are working hard to adjust our cost structure to the current demand environment, which will put the business in an even better position when the industrial economies do recover. To conclude on the end markets, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company in any environment, and that the current conditions will pass. Please turn to slide 14 now, and I want to give you an update on the impact of the flooding in the Valais.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

In late June, we experienced unprecedented flooding in the Valais region of Switzerland, which devastated the region, including industrial activities at Constellium and elsewhere. Our plate and extrusion shops in Sierre and the cast house in Chippis were severely flooded and operations were suspended. The Sierre and Chippis facilities were under 4 ft-5 ft of water at the crest, and it took six weeks to restore power to the site. Cleaning efforts are well underway, with a strong focus on safety and efficiency. I am pleased to report that as of mid-October 2024, operations have partially resumed, and we anticipate restarting full operations in both our extrusion and plate shops by the end of November 2024. We currently aim to complete the production ramp-up for the extrusion and plate business by the end of the first quarter next year.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Mitigation plans have been implemented, including transferring some production to other facilities, such as Issoire and Singen. We are also able to recover some of the inventory and ship it to customers. We're actively discussing with local authorities to secure the site against future flooding and ensure its long-term viability. The financial impact in the third quarter this year at Valais as a result of the flood was EUR 17 million of Adjusted EBITDA and EUR 6 million of free cash flow. For the full year in 2024, we currently expect the impact to be EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million of Adjusted EBITDA and EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million of free cash flow, including the assumption of partial receipts of insurance payments.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

We currently expect some cost impact in early 2025, as production of the facilities will continue to ramp, and we also expect some of the remaining insurance proceeds in 2025. All of the insurance proceeds received are accounted for below Adjusted EBITDA. As of today, we believe that the total impact from the flood will come in slightly favorable to our original estimate of July. Most of you are familiar with the saying, "When life gives you lemon, make lemonade." Well, I think that is an accurate statement for our situation in the Valais. As a result of the flood, we're examining every aspect of the operations here, and a lot of the equipment is getting repaired and will be in better shape than before the flood.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

When looking in the rearview mirror at this event, we believe we will emerge with a lower overall cost structure in Valais as a result of our efforts, and our competitive position should improve as our assets will be better managed. I cannot say enough how proud I am of our team on the ground there, and the incredible progress they have made in a short period of time against significant odds. I wanted to take a second here to thank them for their incredible resolve and courage during this very difficult time. Turning now to slide fifteen, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. As I mentioned earlier, the third quarter was very challenging for us, as demand weakness accelerated during the quarter in several end markets, and the weakness has now spread to some other end markets.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

We are surprised to see how rapidly market conditions deteriorated since July. Based on our current outlook with these weak market conditions, for the full year in 2024, we expect Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of EUR 580 million-EUR 600 million. This excludes an estimated one-time impact of EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million in 2024 from the flood in Switzerland and excludes the non-cash impact of metal price lag. We are doing everything we can to manage costs in the business, and we are working to reduce our working capital levels to support the current demand environment. Given the softness we are experiencing today across most of our end markets and with no signs of recovery in the near term, we are also more cautious as we head into 2025.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

At this stage, our Adjusted EBITDA target of over EUR 800 million, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, is delayed, pending market recovery. In the near term, we have several Adjusted EBITDA drivers that are within our control, including the drivers we discussed in July this year, such as our new recycling and casting center in Neuf-Brisach, ramping up the better contractual terms in aerospace next year, and increasing our efforts to reduce costs across the business as part of our Vision 2025. We also assume that the two significant weather events in 2024, in Muscle Shoals and Valais, do not repeat. We are confident that the long-term fundamentals driving secular growth in our markets remain intact, and when markets do recover, it will create additional upside.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

In addition, over the last few quarters, we have outlined several new organic investments we are making that will start to contribute to Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and will ramp up in the years beyond 2026. To conclude, while we are facing very challenging conditions in most of our markets today, we believe that this too will pass, and I remain very excited about our future. We have demonstrated over and over again that we have the right strategy, the right teams, the right products, and the right markets, and that we know how to overcome crises. Our business model is flexible and resilient. Our diversified portfolio allows us to have options in very different market conditions....

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

We have built the balance sheet we need to both weather crises and seize opportunities, and our high-value, recyclable, and sustainable products respond to the growing needs of our customers and society. We are well positioned for long-term success and remain focused on executing our strategy and shareholder value creation. With that, Drew, we will now open the Q&A session, please.

[Operator]

Thank you. Starting today's Q&A session, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad, and if you wish to withdraw that question, then it is star followed by two. Our first question today comes from Katja Jancic from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Katja Jancic, Director and Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Jean-Marc, you just mentioned there are EBITDA drivers, that I guess are non-market related. Can you just remind us how much those drivers could add to EBITDA when combined?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Sure. Good morning, Katja. Thanks for the question. So, the first one is the recycle center in Neuf-Brisach, which, as I said, is ramping up nicely as we speak. That's EUR 35 million-EUR 40 million for next year. The second one is Vision 2025. It used to be the third one, but obviously, given the market conditions we're seeing, we're working hard on the cost structure, and that should be north ofEUR 25 million in cost savings into next year. The third element is the repricing of some of our aerospace contracts. I didn't give an exact number, but you can figure it out, given the fact that it used to be more than 15 and now it's less than 25, so it's somewhere in between.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

And then I think we feel like we are turning a corner in Muscle Shoals. We're seeing better production out of the facility. Now, obviously, that's good in the context of can sheet demand being healthy, especially in North America, but also in Europe. So that should also help us next year and provide some further EBITDA lift. Now, it's likely to be a little bit mitigated because, as Jack mentioned, metal costs are unfavorable. The scrap spreads are tighter than they used to be by quite a bit, so that's offsetting some of the improvements in Muscle Shoals, but net-net, that's going to be an improvement as well.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

These are the ones, you know, immediately now that are within our control and that should provide, you know, you add up all these, you get north of EUR 100 million of additional EBITDA, as we mentioned back in July. Now, longer term, also in our control, we announced in the first two earnings calls this year four investments in Ravenswood, Muscle Shoals, Issoire, and Singen that are going to. You look at them in total, it's about EUR 300 million of capital expenditures that are within our usual EUR 300 million-EUR 350 million of CapEx every year, and these should generate close to EUR 100 million of additional EBITDA.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Now, none of that will impact 2025, because these projects will start, you know, later in 2026 and really ramp up in 2027, 2028. But these are definitely a number of activities that are well within our control and that are well underway.

[Katja Jancic, Director and Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Maybe going back to the Vision 2025, the cost reduction of EUR 25 million, does that include any incremental cost reductions that you were mentioning today that you're trying to do?

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

So Katja, I think, our objective is to kind of right size our cost structure. So previously, the Vision 2025, you know, remember we said, targeting EUR 50 million of savings over three years, right? So we're kind of halfway into that program, and the program is performing well. Now, we're accelerating in addition to the Vision, the prior Vision 2025 target, and we're looking at, you know, some of the labor cost reduction efforts and cutting back on some of the other kind of non-essential categories. So the 2025 is incremental to the prior effort.

[Katja Jancic, Director and Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Yep.

[Operator]

Our next question today comes from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Yeah. Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just thinking about 2024 to try to make sure I understand some of the impacts in more detail. If you think about the EUR 590 million+ the, I guess, sort of, I don't know, what, EUR 35 million from the flood, that would still kind of put you maybe-- and then if, I guess, you added the EUR 15 million from the Muscle Shoals, that still puts you kind of like EUR 100 million below the low end of the prior or I guess the original guidance. Can you walk us through, I guess, the market drivers? You know, obviously, you're commenting that autos worse in the U.S. and Europe, industrials seems to have taken a leg down, maybe some pricing and mix impacts.

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Can you walk us through the various buckets of, I guess, what is worse and quantify amongst the various buckets, please?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Good morning, Bill. Thanks for the question. Yeah, I'll do that. So, I'll start with the markets in a, you know, sequence, right? So the first one, industrial markets. We knew Europe was weak. It got weaker. In addition, we've seen a sharp decline in North America, industrial markets, and namely, that's gonna affect us through the TID product lines in the second half of this year. And you're seeing, you know, already evidence of that in our Q3 A&T numbers. So that's been quite a sharp reversal. I mean, you look at the trailer builds, we're looking at a 25%-30% reduction year-on-year. But just one segment, right? Compared to last year. Clearly, much worse than what was expected.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Then you look at the automotive market. Back in July, we were still thinking when the outside actual forecast for the industry was still, you know, slightly up compared to last year. Now we're talking of a 5% decline, and that decline is actually worse in the electric vehicle and luxury market segments. I mean, you've seen most OEMs have published a revision to their guidance. We know that there's a significant player in North America. Stellantis is an important customer of ours. They are struggling with a lot of inventory piling up in the dealers' lots. So that is causing a very sharp reduction in demand going into the end of the year. Then in terms of, you know, can sheet, we're happy with it.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

It remains steady and strong, but we've got aerospace as well, where the supply chain issues are creating a further reduction in demand. Now, we had started the year with a more conservative assumption than what the OEMs were giving us, but now the reality is even more below our conservative assumption going into the year. And what that means is some of our demand is going out, that we thought would happen in the second half of the year, is getting pushed into the next year. Now, you also remember that when we started the year, we had thought, on the basis of our discussions with our customers and, you know, our knowledge of the market, that the second half would be stronger.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

We actually had pulled forward some outages to make sure we had all the production capacity available in the second half. And clearly, we got caught wrong-footed because the markets are serving us a different menu than what we thought at the beginning of the year. So you think of all these items, you add them up, and you add to that the fact that the scrap spreads in North America are way tighter than they've ever been in the past five years. Plus, you get to an impact of EUR 80 million-EUR 100 million of negative EBITDA compared to last year. So that's a very sharp difference, Bill.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

And I think, you know, the what we're seeing here, you know, then begs the question of: when do we think that turns around? We don't know. But there's some elements that we know are going to be moved, you know, to the future. They're going to happen. Those aircrafts will be built. And now for other markets, and we all know they can be cyclical, and you know, when they turn back is anybody's guess. But we don't think it's gonna be a Q1 event. And I don't know if I answered,

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Okay.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

That was a long answer. I don't know if I answered all your question, Bill. Go ahead if you've got any follow-up.

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

I think there's a lot of market-driven things. I just don't know if there's other comments that maybe price or mix or maybe just internally, cost related, that may be also impacting in addition-

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

No.

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

-to the-

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Actually, so on the price side, yeah, I mean, when markets are low or not strong, the pricing is a bit weaker as well. It's not such a dramatic impact for us. I mean, it's more about the mix and especially in aerospace, right, where some of the more profitable products are the ones that are pushed to the right because they tend to be the ones that the OEMs will stock up on in anticipation of those, and to make sure they don't get, they don't run out of them. They tend to be the more difficult ones to make. So these are the ones that are more critical, that they want to make sure they got enough of. And if the build rates go down, then they adjust those stock levels.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

But, I think back to the pricing issue, not really. I mean, the pricing in automotive is set, the pricing in the can sheet is set, the price itself on aerospace is set. What changes is the mix, and the mix has been unfavorable. And on the cost side, actually, we're doing, I think we're doing reasonably well.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

We have an extremely poor line here.

[Operator]

Timna, your line is now open. Please go ahead. We're going to pause the call momentarily. Please stand by. Thank you for your patience, everyone. We will now continue with today's Q&A session. Our next question comes from Timna Tanners, from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Great. Thank you very much. Sorry, I was having a hard time with the audio, so I might have missed this, but I was hoping we could talk a little bit about what signs of any recovery you might be seeing. Thinking about next year. On the aerospace side, I was a little concerned. You talked about just starting to see weakness. So have we, you know, how do we think about the margin compression and that mix shift of that important high margin product, and any signs of if that could be like a temporary destocking from your customers or how to think about that business in particular?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Okay, good morning, Timna. So the, I'll address the first question on the, do we see any signs of a recovery in the markets? Not really, at the moment. We and, you know, on cans, it's going okay, right? Aerospace, I think we'll come back to the second part of your question. I think it's just a bump in the road, and on automotive and, specialties or industry, I mean, we don't see recovery signs yet. Actually, we've seen a sharper decline than what we could have thought back in July. So, no good news on that front. Regarding aerospace, I think it's, you know, we're starting to see weakness compared to the assumptions we had, but it's still a market where there is a clear need for more aircraft.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

The OEMs want to build more aircraft, but they are faced with temporary supply chain challenges, or the supply chains are ramping up. So there's no need to dwell on Boeing, right? We all know what's happening there. But in the case of Airbus, it's really about, you know, making sure they, for them, that they get the engines and the interiors that they need to complete the aircraft. And as they are slowing down, you know, their ramp-up, they are slowing down the long lead time items that, you know, we supply to them. And that's what's happening. So what it means is, ultimately those products will be made and sold by us to them, but it's not happening as we were thinking in the second half of this year.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Now, in terms of margin compression, what that means is you get a less rich mix in aerospace itself, so that creates a bit of a margin compression, but we don't think our, you know, our margins are really at risk here.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Yeah.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

And if anything, the margins we'll see in this quarter are slightly depressed because of that mix shift, but also because of the Valais flood. Remember, you know, there's some A&T has some presence in the Valais, so that's, you know, mechanically putting pressure on their average margin.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Yeah, Timna, the only thing I would add is, if you were to kind of strip out the impact of that lag, for the quarter, the A&T margin still, you know, attractive from a historical, you know, perspective, right? Compared to, you know, what we had, in the past. So the quarterly, margin is, it was, you know, still above EUR 1,100 per ton.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Sure. I was asking because you said you're just starting to see it, so I was trying to think of how much downside there could be. So if you, if you'd like to elaborate, that would be great. But I did want to also ask, given that you've talked a lot in the past about having good visibility based on, you know, the bulk of your business being in contracts, how does that protect you against some of this weakness? And in light of that, like, how do you think about in a soft market with more capacity coming on, if there's much risk there or if you still think, you know, some of your contracts keep you protected?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Yeah. So, we do have good contracts, but obviously, you need to think of them as, you know, market share driven or requirement-based, right? So over time, we are not going to sell products for, you know, end product—for end products that are not going to be made in a given period of time. That said, there's a number of different factors here. In automotive, we can claim compensation from our customers, our OEMs, so that's providing us some protection. And in A&T, the tolerances are pretty narrow, and we're pretty good at spot markets. And also, we're taking a long-term view. I think what we're seeing is a very sharp change in market conditions, but those things will bounce back as well.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

So on the upside, we'll be very happy of the contracts we have. So I think that's how we look at it. I mean, those we've experienced already a number of cycles. This one may be a little bit sharper than we had thought, and a little bit quicker, but there will be a bounce back as well.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Okay. If I could squeeze one more in. There's been some noise about additional taxes potentially in Paris. Is there something you could address for us, please?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Oh, income tax? Yeah.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Yes. So,

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Correct. Yeah

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

We'll be happy to. So it wouldn't impact 2024 because the incremental kind of tax increasing tax rate is applied on 2024 payable in 2025. But what that means, and that will, you know, halve in 2026 compared to 2025. So it just means a sort of a temporary modest amount of increase in cash tax.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research]

Okay. Thank you.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Yeah.

[Operator]

Our next question today comes from Josh Sullivan, from The Benchmark Company. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

Hey, good morning.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Good morning, Josh.

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

Just on the aerospace piece, you know, with the supply chain issues mentioned, you know, is this related to both the large OEMs, or is there incremental impact stronger from one versus the other this quarter?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

We are much more exposed to Airbus, as you know, Josh. So in the absolute, you know, a smaller impact for Airbus is a bigger impact for us than for Boeing. So that, that's what I would say. Yep, and we're seeing also some-

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

And, just-

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Being challenged, so that, you know, delayed, so that's also causing us a bit of grief.

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

Are you at minimums now, or when did you go to minimums on the contracts?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

So as I said, our contracts, I don't want to go into too much detail, but they are requirement-based, so we believe we are reasonably close to the minimum. Another way to look at it is you look at 2019, right? Our shipments were much higher than they are today, so the pre-COVID times. So that gives you an idea of where we stand.

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

Got it. And then just on the sharp decline in North America, I know you said it's pretty broad-based, but how should we think of inventory in the distribution channels or at customers? You know, is the sharp decline coming into a fully inventoried supply chain, or were customers leaner at this point in the cycle anyways?

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

No, I think, I think there's quite a bit of stocking up in the inventory, and that's creating some of the issue. You know, if Boeing cannot produce as they should because of the safety issue, the strike issues and all that, then obviously, you know, the material keeps on flowing in the supply chain and builds up, right? For aircraft that is not being built. So at some point there is a correction, and I think that's where we are.

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

Got it. And I was thinking on the North American industrial sharp decline comment-

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Oh, yeah

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

-from the general.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Yeah, well, since those assets typically make also aerospace, then what happens is you've got... You know, those assets slow down, there's more appetite for TID volumes from the manufacturers of, you know, plate and sheet, and the markets are slowing down there as well, so it creates more tension in the market.

[Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company]

Okay. Thank you for the time.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Thank you.

[Operator]

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question on today's call, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. And if you wish to withdraw your question, then it is star followed by two. Next, we have a follow-up from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Yes, thanks for taking the follow-up. The audio was bad earlier, and couldn't get the second question in. Wanted to come back-

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Sure

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

-and ask a few questions around the flooding. So on the remaining sort of, I guess EUR 13 million-EUR 23 million of the EBITDA impact, can you-- I guess, how would that be split between AS&I and A&T segments? And I think you prior free cash flow guidance was around EUR 100 million ex flooding. Would you think, does that hold? And then I guess sort of finally on the flooding, want to get a sense for how much EBITDA and cash flow impact could bleed into 2025.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Okay. So Bill, I'll take these two questions. So first on the flood. So I think the way to think about the impact between AS&I, A&T is, you know, call it 2/3 at AS&I and 1/3 at A&T. And these are, just to be clear, the cost to EBITDA represent, you know, business interruption expense. There are other, you know, expenditures like cleanup costs, like equipment OpEx, which are below the line, other kinda one-time costs, which is offset against the insurance proceeds, which we receive, and that falls below adjusted EBITDA, as Jean-Marc mentioned as well. I just wanted to be clear on that point.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

In terms of the impact into 2025, you know, we're kind of focused on restarting our operations as quickly as possible, and some of it will fully ramp up this year. By the end of this year, it'll continue to kind of ramp up in the first quarter of next year. So there could be some impact there. But any, you know, the cash impact there will be offset. Because if you look at the insurance amount, you know, we pencil in EUR 50 million. We had received 21 this quarter. In Q3, we expect to receive, you know, about EUR 30 million by the end of the year. So we still have, you know, call it EUR 20 million to go next year, which will be offset against the expenses from a free cash flow perspective, if that makes sense.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

So I'll pause here and make sure-

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Yeah.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

I just wanna make sure your question about,

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

I just want to make sure there's any other impacts in 2025. And then, just if you address the free cash flow target for 2024, does the EUR 100 million still hold?

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Yeah. So no, I think, well, so hopefully my answer clarified on the question about Valais. But maybe-

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Yeah

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

-moving to free cash flow. So you know, look, we're not guiding, and I mentioned this in the script a little bit, but we're not guiding free cash flow this year. And there are, you know, a number of reasons for that. You know, first, you know, as you can imagine, with lower activity levels, we would expect some working capital release in the system. But there's typically a lag, right? Where, in other words, you know, it does take some time for us to get the benefits on the cash side from having reduced metal intake. So it's really here, it's really timing.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

The timing is a bit uncertain, and that means, you know, some of the benefits from the working capital release could come in this in Q4 of this year, and some of it may come in the first quarter of next year, so it's just timing and but cash will be there, but outside of that, you know, there is going to be some, you know, modest amount of working capital impact as we're shifting, you know, part of the production to elsewhere in our system as a result of the flooding in Valais, and then in addition to that, we have, you know, there are many kind of action items we're working on to help, you know, improve our free cash flow this year.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

So there are really a lot of moving pieces here, and that's why we don't want to be kind of too prescriptive. You know, we're focused on managing as carefully as we can. We're focused on consistent free cash flow generation and, you know, we're still buying back shares, right? Which, you know, hopefully shows you that, you know, we have confidence in our ability to generate cash.

[William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Thanks. Thanks, Jack. Thanks for taking the follow-up.

[Jack Guo, EVP and CFO at Constellium]

Thank you, Bill.

[Operator]

We have no further questions in the queue at this time, so I'll hand back over to the management team for closing remarks.

[Jean-Marc Germain, CEO at Constellium]

Thank you, everybody, for attending the call. As you can see, this was a challenging quarter, and we have challenging market conditions that we're dealing with. I'm, you know, reasonably pleased in this context that actually our operations are performing well, and we believe that we'll emerge from these challenging market conditions even stronger. We'll look forward to update you on our progress at our next earnings call. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

That concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Jean-Marc Germain, CEO
• Jack Guo, EVP and CFO
• Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations

Analysts

• William Peterson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan
• Josh Sullivan, Managing Director at The Benchmark Company
• Timna Tanners, Managing Director at Wolfe Research
• Katja Jancic, Director and Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets