NOV Q3 2024 Earnings Results & Report

NOV EPS Results

• Actual EPS: N/A
• Consensus EPS: $0.35
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A
• EPS Beat Rate: 3 of last 8 quarters

NOV Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: $2.23 billion
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

NOV (NYSE:NOV) (NYSE: NOV) is a Houston-based technology and equipment provider serving the global energy industry. The company develops and manufactures products and systems used in oil and natural gas drilling, well construction, completion and production operations.

Its offerings include land and offshore drilling rigs, rig equipment and components, downhole tools, drill pipe, wellbore technologies, pressure-control systems, and equipment used to enhance production. NOV also provides aftermarket parts, technical support, maintenance and other services designed to help energy companies operate and maintain their equipment.

The company was formed in 2005 through the merger of National Oilwell and Varco International, building on businesses with much longer histories in the oilfield equipment industry. NOV serves customers across major energy-producing regions worldwide, including North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific.

NOV Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Q3 Results: Reported revenues of $2.19 billion and net income of $130 million ($0.33/share), with adjusted EBITDA up 7% year-over-year to $286 million and margins rising to 13.1%.
• Cash Flow & Capital Return: Generated $359 million in operating cash flow and $277 million in free cash flow in Q3, repurchasing $80 million of shares and paying $29 million in dividends, reaching 49% of excess free cash flow returned year-to-date.
• Strong Backlog & Orders: Energy Equipment segment booked $627 million of orders in Q3 (book-to-bill 111%), driving total backlog to $4.5 billion (highest in over five years) and flexible pipe backlog past $1 billion.
• Short-term Headwinds: Operator caution due to slowing Chinese demand, excess OPEC capacity and macro uncertainty is expected to modestly reduce offshore drilling equipment and aftermarket demand into early 2025.
• Long-Term Growth Drivers: Bullish on next-decade demand for oil, especially deepwater FIDs (Gulf of Mexico, Suriname, Middle East) and international unconventional shale developments (Argentina, Middle East), leveraging NOV's 20 ks equipment and completion tools.

Presentation

[Operator]

...As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Amie D'Ambrosio, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Amie D'Ambrosio, Director of Investor Relations at NOV Inc.]

Welcome, everyone, to NOV's third quarter twenty twenty-four earnings conference call. With me today are Clay Williams, our Chairman, President, and CEO, and Jose Bayardo, our Senior Vice President and CFO. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of today's comments are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. They involve risks and uncertainty, and actual results may differ materially. No one should assume these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the quarter or later in the year. For a more detailed discussion of the major risk factors affecting our business, please refer to our latest Forms 10-K and 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our comments also include non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measures are in our earnings release, available on our website.

[Amie D'Ambrosio, Director of Investor Relations at NOV Inc.]

On a U.S. GAAP basis for the third quarter of 2024, NOV reported revenues of $2.19 billion and a net income of $130 million, or $0.33 per fully diluted share. Our use of the term EBITDA throughout this morning's call corresponds with the term adjusted EBITDA, as defined in our earnings release. Later in the call, we will host a question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to permit more participation. Now, let me turn the call over to Clay.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Thank you, Amy. Strong execution in the third quarter of 2024 enabled NOV to deliver higher EBITDA and margins, both sequentially and year over year, and cash flow improved significantly compared to the third quarter of 2023 as a result. Rising long-cycle capital equipment revenues helped offset declines in drill pipe and certain shorter cycle products and services tied to activity, resulting in consolidated revenues of $2.2 billion. Consolidated revenues improved modestly compared to the third quarter of 2023, but were down about 1% compared to the second quarter of 2024. EBITDA improved to $286 million, up 2% sequentially and up 7% year over year, and margins moved up to 13.1%, helped by higher margin backlog, lower costs, and improved operational efficiency.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

The company posted fully diluted GAAP earnings of $0.33 per share, up $0.04 per share year over year. The third quarter saw our customers growing increasingly concerned about the global macro environment. Sliding Chinese oil demand, excess OPEC capacity, and potential non-OPEC oversupply are pressuring commodity prices. As a result, oil and gas operators and service companies are becoming incrementally more cautious in their near-term spending decisions. Despite these emerging headwinds, we remain bullish on the long-term demand for oil, and in particular, natural gas, over the next decade, given AI-driven electricity demand is forecast to rise sharply in the United States, and stronger global economic growth will inevitably drive demand for more oil and gas. We believe this long-term view is shared by our E&P customers, as evidenced by their continued development of profitable projects in deepwater and in emerging unconventional shale basins around the world.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Final investment decisions, or FIDs, are continuing to move forward. Recent announcements include the greenfield development of a Kaskida high-pressure reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico, a feat made possible by NOV's development of leading 20,000 PSI or 20K equipment. Other announcements include development projects in offshore Suriname and additional gas facilities in the Middle East. Our customers' commitments for these substantial capital investments give us confidence in the continued recovery of the offshore space and the development of unconventional shale in international basins over the long term, and both will require NOV's unique equipment and technology. Next month will mark the ten-year anniversary of OPEC's 2014 decision to take back market share from North American shale producers. At that time, OPEC declined to impose additional quota restrictions, which would have ceded further market share to the rising supply of shale oil from the United States.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

This prompted a significant, sustained decline in global oil prices. North American shale oil supply, built on the application of novel and expensive drilling and stimulation techniques, was regarded as a high marginal cost source, certainly a much higher cost per barrel source than Middle Eastern oil. North American shale was expected to be crippled by low oil price. It didn't exactly play out like that. Shale entrepreneurs employing horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracture stimulation in marginal rocks doubled down on efficiency to survive, and their relentless pursuit of lower marginal costs led to more than just survival. The U.S. shale oil patch thrived and rocketed U.S. production from six million barrels per day to over 13 million barrels of oil per day. Instead of losing market share, U.S. unconventional shale gained share since OPEC's 2014 meeting, and notably, investments in offshore and many international onshore fields collapsed.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

These became collateral damage, victims of the market share war with shale. Shale innovation has been astounding. Rates of penetration and footage drilled per day in the complex horizontal wells required to make shale work have doubled in ten years, while lateral lengths have nearly doubled, increasing from six thousand feet to ten thousand feet, with many now targeting fifteen thousand feet and even twenty thousand-foot laterals. Hydraulic fracture treatment has posted similarly astonishing productivity gains. I note this because it has important implications for NOV and the rest of the industry for the next several years. Unconventional basins in North America are maturing. We can debate the remaining inventory of Tier One drilling locations, but there's no question that there are fewer today than there were this time last year. As pressures decline basin-wide, gas oil ratios, NGL cuts, and API gravity are rising.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Cost of capital to shale producers is far higher than it was a decade ago. Investors are more demanding that capital be returned to them, leading to widespread capital discipline, magnified by recent widespread consolidation among shale producers. Many forecasts are calling for decelerating U.S. production growth next year as a result.... While I'm certainly not ready to call the peak of U.S. production growth, I do think it must be close to at least plateauing, and I think many of our international and offshore customers view unrestrained U.S. production growth as much less of a threat than it was in the early days of the shale revolution.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

To put it in perspective, U.S. shale was responsible for more than 80% of global oil supply growth over the last decade, and it crowded out investments in many or most other sources of oil along the way, places like the deepwater offshore. But that is changing, and the resumption of FIDs and the sanctioning of the projects I noted earlier are good examples. Deepwater exploration and development has recovered post-COVID in South America, and West Africa, and Eastern Mediterranean, and in the Gulf of Mexico Wilcox. 2023 global exploration investments were up 40% from the 2015 to 2022 average. Reengineering and standardization have lowered breakevens to $40 a barrel or less, and offshore producers have increased their FIDs to around $100 billion a year since COVID.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

This is prompting rising orders for FPSOs and production kit, and as shipyards have filled and the supply chain for these has tightened, the quoted delivery dates for FPSOs have pushed out. This has delayed first oil and diminished the urgency of E&Ps to contract offshore drilling rigs, cooling demand and flattening dayrate growth through the past several months. A phenomenon our drilling contractor customers refer to as white space, or uncontracted time in their calendars. We now believe the white space effect is starting to slow some of the spending plans of our drilling contractor customers into 2025. For example, we were informed a couple of weeks ago of a decision by one of our customers to delay, not cancel, but delay the planned upgrade of two offshore rigs.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

While we expect some to continue to invest in their offshore rigs through these periods of white space, like another customer that booked two hook load upgrades to convert its sixth-gen drill ships to seventh generation, we know others are probably thinking about slowing their near-term expenditures. I think most foresee higher drilling activity in twenty twenty-six and beyond, as demand accelerates on the backside of the FPSO supply chain catch-up. So our early expectation is for demand for offshore drilling equipment, as well as aftermarket spares and support for offshore drilling rigs, to decline modestly into early twenty twenty-five and then see demand grow again in the second half of twenty twenty-five. In contrast to the market for drilling equipment, we see demand for the offshore production equipment that we make continuing to grow.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Over the past decade, we have added turret mooring systems and swivel stacks, flexible pipe, gas and seawater processing systems, offloading systems, pump and composite piping products, and a myriad of other key technologies to enable profitable deepwater production. Preliminarily, we believe rising demand for production kit will be able to fully offset sliding demand for drilling rig equipment offshore in the coming year. Our third quarter numbers provide good evidence. Solid demand for offshore production-related equipment continued to drive strong orders for the Energy Equipment segment. Total bookings of $627 million led to a book-to-bill of 111% for the third quarter, bringing book-to-bill to 123% year to date. Backlog for flexible pipe for deepwater developments eclipsed $1 billion for the first time ever.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

NOV's Energy Equipment segment posted a 2% increase in offshore revenues compared to the third quarter of last year. The third quarter saw higher revenues from offshore stimulation equipment and deepwater rig upgrades to 20K, partially offset by lower revenues related to wind turbine installation vessels. The segment improved its EBITDA margin 260 basis points year over year on improved execution around its flexible pipe, pumps, mixers, and production processing capital equipment orders. However, despite the growth within the Energy Equipment segment, NOV's overall consolidated revenues for the offshore declined 2% year over year, as Energy Products and Services segment's offshore revenue fell due to sharply lower drill pipe shipments and conductor pipe connection sales, both of which tend to be volatile quarter to quarter.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

However, the good news is that we saw a significant increase in orders for offshore drill pipe of 64% sequentially, and our strong backlog for offshore conductor pipe connections are expected to lead to improved offshore results in the fourth quarter for the segment. So to summarize, while we foresee modestly weaker demand for drilling equipment for the next few quarters, we believe demand for offshore production systems will continue to grow. Turning to international land markets, national oil companies in certain areas are embracing technologies pioneered by North American shale producers and applying these to unconventional rocks. Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, are all pursuing unconventional development opportunities at scale. This is an important opportunity for NOV across multiple product lines. First, this will require better rigs.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

The North American Shale Revolution was preceded by a build-out of modern drilling technology, as the drilling rig fleet was first converted to fit-for-purpose AC rigs with high setbacks and high-pressure mud systems. Second, specialized tools for hydraulic fracturing and coiled tubing for plug drill outs were required at scale. Third, innovations in plugs, toe valves, sliding sleeves, burst port subs, and other completion tools were required. And now fourth, better downhole bits, drilling motors, friction reduction tools, and torsional vibration mitigation tools, along with higher torque capacity drill pipe, are being required to push laterals out three miles or more. NOV leads in almost every category I mentioned, and the growing unconventional shale activity in places like the Vaca Muerta formation or the Jafurah field point to greater growth in the future for NOV.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

For example, this past quarter, our Series 55 drilling motor that has dazzled customers in West Texas completed its first international run in the Middle East. Energy equipment again saw solid year-over-year, mid-single-digit growth into international land markets, led by chokes and gas processing equipment and new AC rig technology for the Middle East. Energy products and services posted more modest year-over-year growth, with strong demand for PDC bits, completion tools, and composite pipe systems to support unconventional developments, offset by declines in drill pipe sales in the Middle East. Finally, turning to North America land, activity continues to be subdued as consolidation, efficiency gains, capital discipline, oil price uncertainty, and very low gas prices are taking a toll on overall short cycle activity. And frankly, at this time, we don't see much that points to activity improvement through the end of the year.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

The good news for NOV is that we continue to outperform activity declines, owing to technically better products we've introduced over the past few years. NOV's new technologies have led to material market share gains in everything from PDC bits, where we've recaptured the number one position in North America, to drilling motors, friction reduction tools, torsional vibrations mitigation tools. All these technologies continue to set performance records for our customers as they drill ever longer horizontal wells. Our Energy Products and Services segment posted a modest increase in North American revenues year over year during the third quarter, helped by our acquisition of the Xtract electrical submersible pump business, along with these market share gains. Composite pipe revenues for this market declined as E&P consolidation pushed projects out, but we are seeing many of these projects restart now.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Energy equipment posted a 6% increase in North American sales during the third quarter, despite its sale of Pole Products since the third quarter of last year. Strong shipments of Ideal eFrac pumpers and high demand for drilling robotics tools and mud plant upgrades contributed to the strong performance. The key to NOV's steady improvements in the absence of a major capital equipment build-out cycle is our capacity to innovate, to improve results for our customers, including new digital technologies. For example, our drilling instrumentation and digital data acquisition services secured a 20-plus rig fleet of a major Texas-based exploration and production company during the quarter. Chosen for our differentiated service and technology, our edge-to-cloud digital capabilities, enabled by our proprietary Max platform, are driving better efficiency for this operation. We are a trusted supplier to the industry's leading operators. Our profitability improved in the quarter.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

We acknowledge that achieving our 2024 exit margin target will be challenging. Nevertheless, we remain focused on the things we can control, driving operational efficiency and optimizing our cost structure. We are confident we can navigate the current market dynamics and grow profitably, even if the path to reaching our margin and return goals elongates a bit. In sum, NOV is well positioned to capitalize on the evolving multi-year upcycle. I'm grateful to our extraordinary NOV employees who deliver our portfolio of innovative technology and are committed to improving business efficiency. I'm confident they will continue to drive strong financial performance. To all those listening, thank you. Jose?

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Thank you, Clay. Overall, despite a few emerging headwinds, Q3 was a solid quarter for NOV. As Clay mentioned, profitability, backlog, and cash flow improved on a modest increase in revenue compared to the third quarter of 2023. NOV's consolidated EBITDA improved 7% year over year to $286 million, with margins increasing ninety basis points to 13.1% of sales. The steadily improving quality of our capital equipment project backlog, along with efforts to improve our operational efficiencies, more than offset the typical effect declining North American drilling activity has on our higher incremental margin, shorter cycle businesses. Cash flow from operations totaled a healthy $359 million due to higher levels of profitability and improving working capital efficiencies. Capital expenditures totaled $82 million, resulting in $277 million of free cash flow.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Year to date, NOV generated $480 million of free cash flow, and we expect our fourth quarter results will put us comfortably beyond our target of converting at least 50% of our EBITDA to free cash flow for the year. We repurchased 80 million of our shares and paid a $29 million dividend, returning $109 million to our shareholders in the third quarter. To recap our return of capital framework, our top priorities are to maintain a strong balance sheet, make investments that are in the best long-term interest of our shareholders, and return excess capital to our shareholders.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Our balance sheet is in optimal condition with a net debt leverage ratio below one, a gross debt leverage ratio well below two, and we have more than ample free cash flow to maintain our asset base, invest in organic growth opportunities, and pursue opportunistic M&A. Our acquisition strategy is focused on smaller, technology-focused, rifle-shot opportunities that accelerate existing strategic objectives and that can be completed at compelling valuations. Consistent with the strategy, in early October, we completed the acquisition of Fortress Downhole Tools. Fortress developed a patented setting tool technology and unique recycling program that offers proven reliability, reduced downtime, and significantly less waste compared to conventional field redressable and disposable setting tools. The business complements our existing completion tools portfolio and is run by a great team, which we were excited to welcome to the NOV family.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Our return of capital framework calls for us to return at least 50% of excess free cash flow, defined as cash flow from operations, less capital expenditures and other investments, including acquisitions annually. Through September thirtieth, 2024, we returned $196 million to our shareholders, meaning that we have returned 49% of our excess free cash flow, which accounts for a net $76 million invested in acquisitions, leaving us well positioned to return at least 50% of our excess free cash flow for the year. If we do not achieve this threshold through our base dividends and share repurchases during the year, we'll pay a supplemental dividend in early 2025 to meet this objective. Moving on to segment results.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Our Energy Products and Services segment generated revenues of $1 billion in the third quarter, a 3% decrease compared to the third quarter of 2023. EBITDA decreased $25 million to $172 million year over year, or 17.1% of sales, due primarily to a decline in drill pipe sales and the effect of lower U.S. drilling activity, partially offset by contributions from our recent artificial lift acquisition. As a reminder, our Energy Products and Services segment generates income from three revenue streams: services and rentals, consumable products, and sales of shorter-lived capital equipment. The segment sales mix for the quarter was 51% service and rentals, 29% capital equipment sales, and 20% product sales.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Revenue from service and rentals include tubular coating and inspection services, solids control services, drilling data acquisition, analytics, and optimization services, and rentals of our downhole drilling tools, drill bits, and artificial lift equipment. During the third quarter, revenue from NOV service and rental businesses increased in the low single digits year over year, with market share gains from new technology introductions and the contribution from our new artificial lift business more than offsetting the effect that a 10% decline in U.S. drilling activity would typically have on this more North American-weighted revenue stream. Excluding the contribution from our artificial lift business, revenues from service and rentals were flat year over year. Capital equipment sales within the Energy Products and Services segment include drill pipe, conductor pipe connections, composite pipe and tanks, shale shakers, and managed pressure drilling equipment.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Sales of the segment's capital equipment fell in the upper teens year over year, primarily due to the sharp decline in drill pipe shipments and conductor pipe connections. As Clay mentioned, orders for drill pipe increased significantly in the third quarter, allowing the operation to improve its backlog for the first time in over a year, and we expect a pickup in conductor pipe connection deliveries in the fourth quarter. In the segment's other capital equipment businesses, sales from our fiberglass operation decreased in the mid-single-digit % range compared to the third quarter of 2023, with lower shipments and composite equipment for industrial markets, partially offset by an increase in sales of composite pipe and tanks into oil and gas and fuel handling markets.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

The segment realized a strong increase in solids control equipment deliveries into the Eastern Hemisphere, but shipments of managed pressure drilling equipment declined year over year due to strong deliveries in 2023 that did not repeat. Revenue from product sales, which include shorter-lived and consumable products used in drilling and completion operations, improved in the upper teens year over year. Excluding the acquisition of our artificial lift business, revenue was down low single digits, with fewer sales of glass-reinforced epoxy tubular liners and drilling tool packages, only partially offset by a significant increase in drill bit sales into Africa and Asia.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

For the fourth quarter, we expect revenues for our Energy Products and Services segment to be down between 1% and 3% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, but up mid-single digits sequentially, with EBITDA between $170 million and $185 million. Moving to our Energy Equipment segment, revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was $1.219 billion, a $24 million or 2% increase year over year compared to the third quarter of 2023. EBITDA improved $35 million year over year to $159 million or 13% of sales, representing an incremental flow-through of over 100%.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

The robust incremental margins and margin progression over the last several quarters is a result of the improving quality of the segment's backlog, as well as efforts to improve operational efficiencies, all of which helped the segment achieve nine straight quarters of year-over-year margin improvement. During the third quarter, sales of capital equipment accounted for approximately 54% of the segment's revenues, unchanged from the second quarter of 2024, and mostly unchanged from the approximately 55% in the third quarter of 2023. Aftermarket sales and service accounted for the remaining 46% of revenue in the third quarter of 2024. Drilling equipment aftermarket sales, which account for the majority of the segment's aftermarket revenue, improved mid-single digits year over year, led by higher spare parts shipments, as well as higher service revenue for many upgrade, reactivation, and recertification projects.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Due in large part to the production-related constraints that Clay described, the amount of white space is weighing more heavily on our offshore drilling contractor customers, which will affect some of their spending. We expect many customers to take advantage of this potential downtime to complete upgrades that will increase their capabilities for higher-end work, improve efficiencies, and enhance safety. However, as Clay discussed, with fewer anticipated offshore drilling days, we expect a modest decline in aftermarket spares and support in early 2025 before recovery and contracting for our customers drives our demand higher in the second half of the year. Aftermarket revenues for intervention and stimulation equipment improved mid-single digits year over year, led by strong shipments of spares into the Eastern Hemisphere for wireline and coiled tubing equipment and increased deliveries of our advanced thermally processed coiled tubing strings in North America.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Switching to the capital equipment portion of the Energy Equipment segment, revenues were essentially flat compared to the third quarter of 2023. Normalizing for the divestiture of our Pole Products business, revenues improved in the low single-digit range, with solid growth in intervention and stimulation, drilling, gas processing, and subsea equipment sales, more than offsetting a decline in revenue from offshore wind installation vessel projects. Sales of intervention and stimulation equipment improved in the mid-teens compared to the third quarter of 2023, in large part due to the delivery of 40,000 horsepower of e-frac pumps, along with two PowerPod systems that will allow our customers to operate the pumps in tandem with conventional pumps.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

We also delivered a few dual-fuel frac pumps as our pressure pumping customers continue to replace worn-out assets with higher-spec equipment that can operate more efficiently and have a lower total cost of ownership in an environment where frac intensity continues to increase the strain on equipment. Sales of drilling equipment improved north of 20% year over year from greater progress on projects, including the 20,000 PSI subsea equipment upgrade for an ultra-deepwater drill ship we booked earlier this year, and the high-spec land rigs we are building in Saudi Arabia. Our marine and construction operation realized a sizable decline in revenue due to several wind turbine installation vessel projects nearing completion, while more recently booked orders for cable lay and crane projects slowly ramp up. Orders totaled $627 million, translating into a book-to-bill of 111%.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Ending backlog was $4.5 billion, the highest level in over five years. Our drilling equipment business booked orders for two additional robotic systems from a repeat customer, and as Clay mentioned, booked orders to convert sixth-generation drill ships into seventh-generation technology rigs. The upgrades include larger load path equipment, associated structural enhancements, and the latest rig controls and monitoring technology, and are prime examples of how we expect our customers to take advantage of white space between projects in 2025. Demand for wireline and coiled tubing equipment in the Eastern Hemisphere remains solid, while the market remains soft for intervention and stimulation equipment in North America. However, pressure pumping customers continue to kick tires and express a desire to replace worn-out assets.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

As Clay mentioned, our subsea flexible pipe operation had a high order intake during the third quarter, achieving a record-high backlog, and the unit has already received another large order that will ensure it delivers another quarter with a book-to-bill greater than one in the fourth quarter. Strength in demand for offshore production equipment also drove very strong bookings for our marine and construction business. The operation booked fourteen cranes, reflecting strong demand needed for offshore production-related activities. It also illustrates NOV's leadership in providing leading-edge, active heave compensation and all-electric crane technologies.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

While we did not book a wind turbine installation vessel order in the third quarter, nor do we expect one near term due to delayed project FIDs and uncertainty regarding the size of turbines that will be used in future developments, we do expect additional opportunities to emerge in 2025 and see potential for meaningfully higher demand in 2026 and 2027, based on current expectations on the timing of offshore wind development FIDs. The operation continues to see solid demand for inter-array cable lay vessels and expects to book an order within the next one to two quarters. Overall, order and quoting activity remain resilient for the segment, giving us confidence that we will realize a book-to-bill greater than one again in the fourth quarter.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

We expect the Energy Equipment segment to realize a slightly more muted than usual seasonal improvement in revenues in the fourth quarter due to strong deliveries of stimulation equipment in the third quarter that will not repeat, and lower progress on gas processing projects, resulting in revenues that will be flat to up slightly sequentially, with EBITDA between $155 million and $165 million. With that, we'll now open the call to questions.

[Operator]

Certainly. And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Our first question comes from the line of Jim Rollyson from Raymond James. Your question, please.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey, good morning, everyone.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Morning, Jim.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

Clay, you guys just mentioned the subsea flexible orders obviously added backlog this quarter, another backlog addition in going into the fourth quarter. And obviously, we've heard from your peers, like everyone across the board, seems like they've had very good order flow from that perspective. Maybe just a little color on how you see that going into next year, since that seems to be obviously an important part of the business.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

You bet, Jim. You know, in my prepared remarks, I spoke to sort of emerging supply chain elongation and constraints around FPSOs. This is sort of a subset of that. These flexible pipes are used in deepwater to connect wellheads to the FPSO vessels. And they compete with rigid pipe, which takes a lot more construction vessel time to weld rigid pipe, so they install a lot more quickly. And what we've seen is really strong demand. I know our competitors have seen that as well, that are again another piece of evidence that point to really good profitability and growth in deepwater offshore field developments. And so that's what's fueling all this.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

And so, but it's starting to get really interesting because I think, you know, I think I can't speak for our competitors, but I know we are, you know, deliveries are starting to push out into 2026 and beyond. But there's part of that sort of supply chain constraint emerging around the kit required for deepwater developments.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

That's helpful. And maybe if I take a step back and kind of think bigger picture, when you look at all the different moving parts that have kind of evolved here in the last, you know, four to six months on some of the short cycle stuff that you mentioned and some of the underlying kind of longer-term, you know, deepwater and other projects that you guys still sound like you're pretty bullish on, how are you thinking about today? And I realize this isn't twenty-five guidance time yet, but just high level, how are you thinking about kind of revenue growth rates next year versus where you might have been, you know, three, four, five months ago? And

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

Maybe as you stretch out, just because you're kind of looking at things ramping back up as you get into the back half of next year, maybe, just kind of how you see this trajectory going over the next couple, two, three years, given the changes that have happened since last quarter?

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, it's a really good question. It's one that we're engaged in here internally as we put together our twenty twenty-five plans with each of our business units. And what I would tell you is, you know, look, it's become clearly more incrementally challenged, as we noted, in our press release and in our prepared remarks, and some concerns emerging around commodity price and economic growth globally. But nevertheless, you know, we've got a lot of good momentum, I think, coming into twenty twenty-five. I think twenty twenty-four will mark the fourth year in a row that our backlog has increased and increased materially, and selling a lot more of that production kit, like flexible pipe, into all of the projects that are being developed in the deepwater. We think those will continue.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Some headwinds emerging, you know, among our contract offshore contract drillers.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

... that NOV serves. But we think those, you know, are gonna be limited, and we—I believe they share our view that in 2026 and beyond, offshore drilling activity is gonna get back to growth as the rest of the supply chain catches up. And so that's a pretty good backdrop to for NOV, I think, to generate some revenue growth in 2025. One of the wild cards that we talked about, I think, last call, was what's going on in North America, and that's certainly been slowing throughout 2024 more than we expected, frankly, when we entered the year. But I think there's cause for optimism here, too, as the gas LNG takeaway capacity expands.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

You know, if gas can catch a bid, I think, which I think that's more likely in twenty twenty-five, and I think that'll be helpful for us here, as well, so on the whole, you know, very bullish on continued development in deep water around profitable oil developments, around profitable gas developments now in deep water, and selling into LNG. Very bullish on continued development of unconventional resources internationally, which is really kind of a first, I think, for the industry, and then I think some cause for optimism in twenty twenty-five with natural gas in North America, but on the whole, you know, economic growth and commodity prices still remain a wild card, and so that's kind of where we are right now. I hope that's helpful.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

Yeah, appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Mark Bianchi from TD Cowen. Your question, please.

[Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Thank you. I was hopeful that you could talk a little bit more about the margin progression here in the guidance for fourth quarter, because I you know, revenue's up a little bit.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah.

[Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen]

and the margins are sort of flat to down. So can you just unpack that? Because I would've thought there was some, you know, maybe some cost savings benefit, better price backlog, that should be a tailwind here.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, good question, Mark. What I'd tell you specifically on Q4 is that we've got a couple of business-specific mix shifts that are underway that are not in the right direction. Both segments, I think, we're guiding up. Jose just guided up, modestly, Q4 versus Q3. But the leverage, I think, in both is gonna be limited. Turning first to Energy Products and Services, we had really strong bit shipments in the Eastern Hemisphere. We have national oil company customers over there that buy bits in bulk and maybe buy, you know, once a year, and those shipments went out in Q3. They're not gonna recur in Q4. That's really good margin work. And then additionally, we think, demand for ESPs is gonna be down, also a very strong margin.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Those revenues will be more than replaced, though, by higher drill pipe shipments and higher composite pipe shipments, and I think at a little bit lower margins. So the mix there is working against us in Q4. In Energy Equipment, similar sort of picture. I think wind turbine installation vessel is gonna continue to move down again in Q4, as it did in Q3, and be replaced by wind tower shipments that'll more than offset that, and so that results in a little bit of an adverse mix shift, so that's what's underway in Q4 around our guidance.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

With respect to 2025, what I would tell you is we continue to focus on our plans, which include cost savings, targeting specific business units and product lines that are underperforming our return criteria, and so that'll contribute, but I think one of the big movers is the continued improvement of our backlog, the margins in our backlog. You know, I think better contracts, better payment terms with those contracts will contribute more in 2025, and that'll help on the margin front. You know, it goes without saying, we're disappointed that we're gonna fall short of kind of our mid-teens guidance for exit margins in Q4, which we entered the year with.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

What I would tell you is, when I reflect back to where we started in the year, it's really been a market in North America that's been less cooperative. I think we came into the year, the consensus across the industry was sort of flattish activity. I think it's continued to be a tougher market, and ESP, in particular, with 51% of its mix coming from North America, has been more affected by those market trends. And so again, if natural gas turns around in North America in 2025, that'll certainly be helpful with respect to getting back on track to achieving that. But I tell you, we're very laser focused on better margins, better returns, and continuing to execute the business in that direction.

[Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Yep. Okay, that's a great answer, Clay. Thanks. I also wanted to understand a little bit more about sort of the severity of some of these headwinds that you guys are calling out. You know, got just sort of broader activity a bit weaker, and then you kind of talked about this aftermarket issue for the offshore market. So as we look into the beginning of 2025, you usually have some seasonal decline from 4Q to 1Q.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Mm-hmm.

[Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen]

But I'm just kind of wondering if, you know, do you feel confident that, like, EBITDA levels in the first half can still be up year over year, or is it too tough to call right now?

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

I'm gonna say again, we're overall optimistic about 2025 and the recovery in the offshore. What changed in the third quarter, it's embedded in our comments here, really, is that we are hearing from a few more drilling contractors around, "Hey, wait a minute. We're not. You know, this white space is sort of taking a toll," one. Two, we saw a little lower orders on aftermarket spares in the third quarter than that's been running for the past couple of years. And we dial all that in. I wanna be careful, though, not to overstate that.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

You know, I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had a customer push back the upgrade of two offshore rigs, but we've had other orders placed to increase the capabilities of offshore rigs. In just the past 60 days, I think we've had a total of five mobile offshore rigs and one platform rig approach us about new projects that they are now planning for 2025, so we've got some other customers kind of entering into our planning process around offshore rig projects for 2025, wanting to take advantage of that white space to get some work done on their rigs.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

And so it's kinda it's a little bit in flux now, is the way I would describe it, but overall, just wanted to communicate, we're more cautious on in the drilling space around drilling capital equipment demand, and recent trends that we're seeing in lower spare parts orders and the impact that that could have on our 2025 results.

[Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, great. Thanks, Clay. I appreciate the comments. I'll turn it back.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah. Thanks, Mark.

[Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen]

You bet. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan. Your question, please.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

Yeah, good morning. Clay-

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Hey, Arun.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

I was wondering if you could. Yeah, good morning. Clay, I was wondering if you could elaborate on your commentary that you expect, call it, rising demand for production equipment to maybe offset some of the softer demand trends for rig capital equipment.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate on that and help us think about some of the margin implications, and as well as maybe discuss some of the chunkier opportunities-

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Sure

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

... in production equipment, and I'm thinking about FPSOs.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, that comment, Arun, is based on the fact that we've seen stronger book-to-bills broadly across our portfolio of production-related equipment and Energy Equipment segment than we have seen in the past few quarters around drilling equipment. Drilling equipment's been good, but what's really sort of you know growing more strongly are orders for that production equipment. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, you know, between turret mooring systems and gas processing technologies and flexible pipe, we've done a lot in the last ten years to build out a more robust portfolio in that space. And so as the deepwater recovers, it's translating to higher orders in that space, and we're certainly delighted to see that.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

And so it's just a comment that I think that's gonna continue to grow more rapidly than demand for drilling equipment. I would add, too, that we also sell a lot into so a lot of those technologies are also sold into the unconventional field developments onshore that I mentioned as well. And so that's another growth driver, I think, for orders that we've seen around, you know, composite piping systems and chokes and separators, and that sort of thing.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Hey, Arun, something I wanna-

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

Sure.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Want to tag onto that. So when we're talking about our expectations for rig aftermarket and rig capital equipment, you know, we really are talking about a modest, a very modest, trend down there, right? So just to kind of put things in perspective, you know, Clay talked quite a bit about the puts and takes that we always see with our contractor customers in terms of which projects move forward and which ones don't. But we have a really good track record related to kind of understanding what that project backlog looks like coming into the year and how that generally holds up as we progress through the year.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

So to put things in perspective, last year, at this time, we had about 111 projects that we were working on with our customers, and today, that number is 109. So again, no guarantees to how that will hold up, but we feel pretty good about that. So I just wanna be clear that, you know, we're really looking at the rig aftermarket trend down as something that's maybe a mid- to mid-upper single-digit type decline year over year.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

You know, as it relates to capital equipment, we actually feel pretty good about that with the backlog that we have as of today for rig capital equipment, which, you know, for our plan, which is really flat to down, very low single digits, going into 2025, we've already got 70% of that in backlog today. You know, as we look into the middle part of next year, I think the view of our contractor customers and their customers that there's gonna be a lot more activity in 2026 and beyond, which should result in a lot more contracting by midyear.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Assuming that does take place, we'll see a good pickup in terms of people wanting to get back to work, get their rigs ready to go, and be prepared for drilling campaigns in early 2026. So hopefully, that additional commentary helps, but no doubt it'll be down a little bit. We're confident that, kind of what we're seeing from a production, offshore production equipment standpoint, will at least offset that, if not more than offset that, based on how our backlog has been building in those areas.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

... Great. Thanks. That's super helpful, Jose. Just a follow-up would be understanding there's you know a little bit of uncertainty in the market today. Can you help us think about some of the puts and takes on just margin expansion opportunities or margin trends in 2025 versus 2024? I do-

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

recall that you had a couple of capital projects that which were moving through the system, Clay, that maybe end in the early part of next year, which maybe gives you some tailwinds. And you did mention how the margins in backlog probably are better, you know, on a year-over-year basis. Maybe you could run through some of the puts and takes in margins.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

-in '25.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, Arun. And Arun, thanks for pointing that out. We did have some. We have had some projects. Those are rapidly slipping out of our backlog, and delighted to see it, because they haven't been helpful for the margins. We also have a couple of frame agreements that were quite large, signed at sort of the depths of the COVID era, that were susceptible to the inflationary pressures that we've seen since then, and those are also moving out of the backlog. So this sort of steady high grading of the backlog and the work that we're executing has been a good tailwind for Energy Equipment's margins, and I think you see that in the numbers, and that should continue as we move into 2025. That'll be a big driver.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Then the other big tailwind would, again, be the you know sort of targeted cost savings that we have coming up. And one other element that's you know not quite as significant as those two, but still impactful going forward is the commercialization of some of the new products and technologies that drive more value for our customers and ultimately command better pricing in the marketplace. You know, we've had really good success with those products, at least partially offsetting the declines that have been taking place within North America. It's allowed us to garner market share. And here, this last quarter, we saw or several of our businesses introduce those technologies into some of the key Middle Eastern and international markets and have really good initial reception.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

So we're optimistic that we'll continue to gain share, not just in North America, but also in some of the international markets as well. So we feel really good about, you know, the ability to continue to drive margins incrementally higher in 2025, despite an outlook that has been tempered just a little bit from an activity standpoint.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Thanks, Arun. I'll turn it back.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.

[Neil Mehta, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Good morning, Clay and team. Thanks for taking the time. My first question is just around geographies. Just maybe you can walk us through the different parts of the world that you're operating in, and where are you seeing accelerating momentum and where you're seeing more challenges? You have a unique perspective-

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah

[Neil Mehta, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

on the global oil and gas landscape, and so would love your insights.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

You bet, Neil. So, as I mentioned earlier, I think the offshore, deepwater in particular, is very exciting. The success that operators have achieved in new exploration basins in Namibia and the Orange Basin, some really good discoveries there. Senegal has got some activity. West Africa's picking back up. Further to the west, you've got Brazil, very active deepwater. You've got a lot of success in Guyana, Suriname, you know, the 20K opportunities and the Paleogene in the Gulf of Mexico, all good. So the Golden Triangle, as it's called, very active with good exploration successes.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

I think the industry's done a good job reducing the marginal cost of development and production of those barrels, and they also are low carbon barrels, and so a lot of attraction there. The North Sea is kind of a mixed picture. Thanks to tax policies, Norway's been very busy and active, the U.K. far less so. Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, we've got activity in the Caspian. So all you know, around the world, the offshore is kind of coming back to life, and that's really good to see because it's been conspicuously absent, you know, for a decade plus.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

The other area that is really exciting for us is, again, the pursuit of unconventional developments at scale in the Middle East, where Jose and I were recently, and NOV is selling a lot of kit into that. I know we're mostly thought of as kind of a drilling rig, drilling technology company, but there's a lot of production and composite piping systems that are going into that, chokes and processing and all that. And so it's a much bigger level of participation, and some investors may realize in that, along with all the drilling and completion technologies that we provide. And then likewise in Argentina, I was down there during the third quarter, and the Vaca Muerta development is heating up, and again, at scale, another great opportunity for NOV.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

With significant changes, too, with the new administration around capital repatriation rules and the like, and so I think it's gonna become a much more interesting market for NOV, so I would highlight those areas as being particularly strong and places where NOV can add a lot of value.

[Neil Mehta, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Thanks, Clay. And then just talk a little bit about the free cash flow progression. It was a good cash flow quarter, and as you go into 2025, 2026, how do you see that shaping up? And then translate that into return of capital in your framework between buybacks and dividends there.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

... Yeah, Neil, I'll go ahead and take that one. So yeah, I mean, I think really the year is playing out kind of the way that we anticipated it would, and I'd say our outlook for the next several years continues to be the same, which is one in which NOV should continue to generate very healthy levels of free cash flow. So, you know, coming into this year, you know, I think in Q3 of last year, we had kinda called that we were making the turn in terms of, you know, the buildup, in terms of the really strong top-line growth that was consuming a bit of working capital and saw that shifting as we sort of moved into a more moderate but still growing environment.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

We stated early on in the year that we were expecting that we would convert at least 50% of our EBITDA to free cash flow, which we're well on track to do that this year. You know, specifically related to the remainder of twenty twenty-four, so we had exceptional free cash flow in Q2, another really strong quarter of free cash flow in Q3. You know, as you know, sometimes our payments move in really chunky amounts, so there's always some puts and takes at quarter end. We had some things go our way, so Q3 was a little bit better than anticipated. That will have a little bit of a drag on Q4, but we still anticipate a strong Q4 from a free cash flow standpoint.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

And then, you know, the touchstone for 2025 and 2026 and beyond, we don't see any reason why we shouldn't still have similar conversions of EBITDA to free cash flow. So feel really good about things going forward.

[Neil Mehta, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Thanks, Clay.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Thanks, Neil.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Kurt Hallead from Benchmark. Your question, please.

[Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark]

Hey, good morning, everybody.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Hi, Kurt.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Morning, Kurt.

[Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark]

I always appreciate the insight and the color. Just wanna make sure I understand one of the things that you guys are trying to message here, okay? Is that, if I heard you correctly, if I didn't, please correct me then. In a overall flattish environment for 2025, with respect to, you know, your business, right, with some things weakening, some things improving-

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Mm-hmm.

[Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark]

You still expect to drive meaningful margin improvement, and that margin improvement then would mostly come from better margin backlog and some cost savings. And in the context, if I understood that correctly up to this point, what kind of cost savings are you looking to drive in 2025?

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, it's a good question. As I said earlier, Kurt, we're very focused on better results and continuing to use cost savings as a way to get there. I'm gonna stop short of quantifying that for you, partly because we're in the middle of our 2025 planning process and working through that. We have a kind of an ongoing list of initiatives across our business. But you know, I think at this point, we wanna wait until we get through the business reviews with our product line managers and business heads.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

But I will tell you, we're continuing to focus on getting better through cost savings, and then again, focused on making sure that we win the right work, the right contracts, appropriate margins and returns, and appropriate risk partitioning between us and our customers, and continue to high-grade the backlog. Those are two of the three things that we think can drive better margin. Then, as Jose mentioned, really good new. You know, just better products. We've been investing in technology through this downturn, and we're seeing results in the marketplace. I think continued growth of products that carry higher margins with them because they add more value to our customers' operations will be kind of the third initiative that will help 2025.

[Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark]

That's great. My follow-up would be, you know, I'm kinda curious to get your views on how the digital applications that you are deploying, you know, how they're being adopted in the-

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah

[Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark]

- marketplace. And we've had conversations with a number of different companies where, you know, some see it more as an internal, you know, margin improvement generator, and others are saying they got significant external revenue opportunities. So maybe you can help us put that into context, too.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, for NOV, I think it's both. So we have our machine tools. We talked about this a quarter or two ago. Machine tool monitoring capabilities that we're applying AI to, to help improve scheduling and efficiency of our own internal operations. We're applying AI to supply chain management and forecasting and things like that, and I think that's gonna drive internal improvements. But equally, we're seeing really good traction amongst our customers around some of the digital initiatives that NOV has brought to the marketplace. So I've talked in calls past about our edge compute, our digital services that we offer to capture data in the field, process data, put it into the cloud.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

This past quarter, the third quarter, the number of users of our MaxEdge portal increased about 25% sequentially, to over 5,000 users. I think we increased the number of assets that we have attached sensors to that are feeding into that, data gathering efforts, that spans, by the way, drilling and production, as well as other industrial applications. We increased the number of assets about 9% sequentially. And that's all as part of this much larger digital ecosystem. And I think the point I would make about our initiatives here is it's really all connected. And so we talk about wired drill pipe and high-speed data, communication from the bottom of the hole. Well, that's important because it feeds into our operating systems for drilling rigs, our NOVOS system.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

It's important because it enables us to apply AI through our Kaizen application or through our Drilling Performance and analytics application, and capture that data to translate it or transmit it back to our customers' home offices in real time, to let their subject matter experts monitor what's going on. It builds sort of a digital foundation for higher levels of automation. And so this is required for our customers to adopt multi-machine control and drilling rigs, for instance, is enabling our ATOM RTX drilling automation product to which is generating a lot of interest amongst major oil companies around the world, both offshore and land, and we're seeing repeat orders for that.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

And so very excited about not just the specific digital products or edge-to-cloud services that we can provide our customers, but also the fact that it sorta is the entryway for new hardware and new, more sophisticated, fit-for-purpose tools that can enable our customers to achieve higher levels of efficiency and safety. I think they're very excited about that, too.

[Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark]

That's great. Appreciate that. Thank you.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

You bet. Thanks, Kurt.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our final question for today comes from the line of Stephen Gengaro from Stifel. Your question, please.

[Stephen Gengaro, Analyst at Stifel]

Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Morning, Steven.

[Stephen Gengaro, Analyst at Stifel]

Two for me, one probably for Jose, and that is, without getting into, obviously, twenty twenty-five guidance, when we think about the working capital parameters currently versus how we should be thinking about in twenty twenty-five, are there areas we should continue to see improvement?

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah, really good question, Steven. So at, you know, as I was saying earlier, you know, we were confident that we sort of made the turn late last year as it relates to free cash flow. You know, part of that was, as I mentioned, the moderating growth, but also, tied to that is the sort of overall management of working capital. So we've made some good progress through the course of the year, got our working capital down to 31.1% of our revenue run rate. And, you know, we talked for a while about our expectations that, more normalized rate should be more in the realm of 27.5%. So that's our ambition to achieve by the end of next year.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

The way you asked your question was interesting because you asked about the different sorts of components that you should be thinking about as it relates to working capital. And I think that's something that maybe isn't fully appreciated by most people, because we're a little bit different in that we have two line items in our working capital that are large and sort of unique to a large project type manufacturer, which is our contract assets and contract liabilities. Which effectively represent down payments and effectively unbilled progress that we've made on major projects.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

And so one of the reasons I wanna point that out is just to make sure people understand that, but also, as we shift into 2025, resulting from, you know, not only the higher embedded margins that are within the projects that are in backlog today versus a year or two ago, the other improvement in terms of the structure of those contracts is they come with better financial terms as it relates to down payments, timing of milestones, all those sorts of things, which will further help us improve management of working capital in 2025 and ultimately, free cash flow.

[Stephen Gengaro, Analyst at Stifel]

Great. Thanks. That's good color, Jose. And then the follow-up, just quickly. I know you mentioned the artificial lift business earlier. What's the update there? How is it going?

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Yeah.

[Stephen Gengaro, Analyst at Stifel]

What markets, et cetera, and how do you feel like that's progressing?

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Good. So, the business that we acquired, we're delighted with the team. They had a really strong position in West Texas. We're moving into North Dakota. That's going well. We're also having good conversations in international markets. One of the headwinds we ran into in North Dakota is that we're hearing from our customers that flowbacks are taking longer, and so, that's, I think, delayed some applications of ESPs. And then additionally, some of the consolidation in the E&P space broadly in the United States has led to higher inventory of ESPs. And so some... You know, again, some near-term headwinds, tight activity in the US, but on the whole, great technology, very focused on really good service, and fantastic customer relationships, and so we're, we're very happy being in that space.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

I would add, you know, I just talked about our digital technologies. We think there's application of edge technologies spanning these ESPs plus the production chokes and separators and production equipment that we have, and so we're kind of assembling a really interesting digital opportunity there for NOV.

[Stephen Gengaro, Analyst at Stifel]

Excellent. Thank you, Clay.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

You bet. Thanks, Stephen.

[Jose Bayardo, CFO at NOV Inc.]

Thanks, Steven.

[Operator]

Thank you. This does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Clay Williams for any further remarks.

[Clay Williams, CEO at NOV Inc.]

Thanks to all of you for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year results in February. And Jonathan, you may close out the call.

[Operator]

Certainly. Thank you, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

Participants

Executives

• Amie D'Ambrosio, Director of Investor Relations
• Clay Williams, CEO
• Jose Bayardo, CFO

Analysts

• Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James
• Mark Bianchi, Analyst at TD Cowen
• Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JP Morgan
• Neil Mehta, Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Kurt Hallead, Analyst at Benchmark
• Stephen Gengaro, Analyst at Stifel