Savers Value Village Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Savers Value Village EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.11
• Consensus EPS: $0.17
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.06
• One Year Ago EPS: -$0.05

Savers Value Village Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $394.80 million
• Expected Revenue: $401.94 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$7.14 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Savers Value Village Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 11/7/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, November 7, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 4:30PM ET

Savers Value Village (NYSE:SVV) operates a network of for-profit thrift stores that sell donated and secondhand merchandise. Its product assortment generally includes clothing, accessories, shoes, books, household goods, furniture and other general merchandise. The company serves consumers seeking value-oriented shopping and supports the reuse of products through the resale of pre-owned goods.

The company operates under several retail banners, including Savers, Value Village, Village des Valeurs and Unique. It obtains merchandise through purchases from nonprofit organizations, direct donations and other sourcing arrangements. Savers Value Village also sorts and processes donated goods, with items that are not suitable for sale typically directed toward recycling, reuse or wholesale channels.

Founded in 1954, the company is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington, and serves communities in the United States, Canada and Australia. Savers Value Village became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2023 under the symbol SVV.

Savers Value Village Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• U.S. business delivered steady comp sales growth of 1.6% in Q3, driven by higher transaction counts and increased basket size.
• Canadian comp store sales declined 7.5% in Q3 amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, prompting targeted tests of pricing and product selection.
• New store expansion accelerated with 9 openings in Q3 (29 on track in 2024) and plans for 25–30 additions in 2025, over 60% of which will be in the U.S.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached $82 million (20.8% margin) in Q3, reflecting resilience from automation investments in centralized processing, automated book processing, and self-checkouts.
• 2024 outlook narrowed to $1.53–1.54 billion in net sales, comparable-store sales down 1%–flat (U.S. up low single digits; Canada down low–mid single digits), and adjusted EBITDA of $290–300 million.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon and welcome to Savers Value Village conference call to discuss Financial Results for the Q3 Ending September 28, 2024. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded, and a replay of this call and related materials will be available on the company's investor relations website.

[Operator]

The comments made during this call and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted by the company and cannot be reproduced without written authorization from the company. Certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from expectations or historical performance.

[Operator]

Please review the disclosure on forward-looking statements included in the company's earnings release and filings with the SEC for a discussion of these risks and uncertainties. Please be advised that statements are current only as of the date of this call, and while the company may choose to update these statements in the future, it is under no obligation to do so unless required by applicable law or regulations.

[Operator]

The company may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in today's earnings release and SEC filings. Joining from management on today's call are Mark Walsh, Chief Executive Officer, Jubran Tanious, President and Chief Operating Officer, Michael Maher, Chief Financial Officer, and Ed Yruma, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Mr. Walsh, you may begin the conference.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Let me start by giving you a few highlights of our third-quarter performance and then talk about the things we're doing to drive the business forward. The overall trends we saw in the Q3 were within the range of our expectations. Our U.S. business remained steady and continued to generate positive comp sales growth driven by increases in both transactions and average basket.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Our Canadian business continues to be impacted by the challenging macro environment, with comp sales trends softening further early in the quarter before modestly improving more recently. We opened nine new stores in the quarter, and we are on track to deliver against our target of 29 new stores this year. We also gained momentum on our new store opening plans for 2025.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

As a class, our new stores continue to perform well, with sales and earnings that exceeded our expectations. We also continue to see solid growth in our loyalty program, with double-digit percentage growth in active members in both the U.S. and Canada over the last year. Loyalty members accounted for 72% of our total sales in the quarter, up from 70% last year.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Finally, the resilience of our business model allowed us to generate $82 million of Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, or more than 20% of sales. The macroeconomic environment in Canada remains challenging, with 6.5% unemployment and a rising cost of living that is especially hard on low-income consumers. While these factors have a lot to do with the sales trends we are seeing in Canada, we are not satisfied with our performance there.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We have been actively testing different approaches to improve our Canadian business, particularly in the areas of selection and pricing. In our business, selection is a function of donations, processing levels, and the product we put on the floor.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We know that fresh new product is an important driver of the business, but at the same time, we strive to align our processing and inventory levels with demand trends. Late in the Q2 and through the first two months of the Q3, we pulled back on processing levels in response to softer demand in Canada.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

It's always a balancing act, but in hindsight, we believe we pulled back too far, which caused our sales trends to decelerate further. We began rebalancing at higher levels of production in September, and since then, we have seen modest improvement in our Canadian sales trends as a result.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

On the pricing side, we continue to test a number of different pricing and discounting approaches. We believe our overall value proposition is strong. That said, we recognize we have opportunities to sharpen price points in select categories and markets and believe this could help drive stronger sales. We continue to closely monitor this in the context of the competitive and macroeconomic landscape and make further adjustments as necessary.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We are acting nimbly to navigate this challenging Canadian macroeconomic environment. We will continue to deliver a strong consumer value proposition while remaining focused on driving consistent and profitable long-term growth. While we continually work to optimize selection and pricing in the short term, we are also thinking about longer-term opportunities to better utilize data and technology to drive further improvements. In both the U.S.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

and Canada, we built a culture of innovation with successful deployment of centralized processing, automated book processing, and self-checkout. These capabilities are now firmly embedded in our business. By the end of this year, centralized processing will support 67 stores. Automated book processing will support 160 stores, and self-checkout is rolled into nearly all of our stores. We believe these kinds of innovations will help us drive long-term profitable growth.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

This quarter marked the beginning of what we expect to be a long-term new store growth era for our company. We opened nine new stores. We will open nine more in the Q4. We also made additional progress in our new store expansion plans for 2025, and we now expect to open 25 to 30 new stores, a further acceleration from our previous outlook. The thrift is still highly fragmented in an emerging sector, particularly in the U.S.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We are significantly underpenetrated in our existing U.S. markets and have virtually no presence in major regions such as the South and the Southeast. Roughly 60% of our new store openings in 2025 will be in the U.S., and that percentage will continue to grow over time. Overall, we expect new stores to be the primary driver of high single-digit total annual sales growth over the long term.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Critical to accelerating our new store growth is the expansion of our offsite processing capabilities. Our network of central processing centers and offsite warehouse facilities enable us to open stores in locations that, for various reasons, can't support onsite processing. This has proven to be a critical unlock for our new store growth plans, with more than half of our new stores going forward expected to utilize some form of offsite processing.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

As we continue to run more volume through this network and gain operational efficiencies, the cost per unit is declining. We expect this trend to continue, enabling more profitable long-term growth and making offsite processing an even more important competitive differentiator for us. I'm especially pleased that we were able to make such great progress against our strategic growth plans, even as we continue to navigate a challenging economic environment in Canada.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We delivered an Adjusted EBITDA margin above 20%, which speaks to the resilience of our business model and our team's disciplined focus on execution. I am convinced our experience managing through this environment is making us a more dynamic company, which will serve us well as we enter a new phase of growth. In closing, let me thank our more than 20,000 team members for their work and dedication to the Savers family.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Together, we are executing the business, controlling what we can control, and investing in our future. We know we have a tremendous opportunity in front of us, and I am more confident than ever in our long-term growth prospects and in our mission to make secondhand second nature. Now, I'll hand the call over to Michael to discuss our financial performance and the outlook for the remainder of the year.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. As Mark indicated, the overall trends that we saw in the Q3 were in the range of our outlook. The U.S. remained steady, and sales were in line with our expectations. Canada was a little weaker than expected, with sales at the lower end of our range. We opened nine new stores during the quarter, and we are on track to open 29 new stores for the year.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We also effectively managed our costs and delivered an Adjusted EBITDA margin of greater than 20% despite top-line headwinds, further demonstrating the resilience of our financial model. Turning now to the income statement, total net sales increased 0.5% to $395 million. On a constant currency basis, net sales increased 1.2%, and comparable store sales decreased 2.4%.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

In the U.S., net sales increased 6.2% to $212 million, and comparable store sales increased 1.6%, driven by growth in both transactions and average basket. In Canada, net sales declined 7.1% to $152 million, and comparable store sales declined 7.5%, primarily driven by declines in transactions. A timing shift in the Canada Day holiday negatively impacted Canadian comparable store sales by approximately 100 basis points.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Cost of merchandise sold as a percentage of net sales increased 300 basis points to 43.3%, with the increase reflecting the impact of new stores and deleverage on lower comparable store sales. As a reminder, our new stores typically open at roughly half of their mature sales levels, resulting in lower profit margins in their first few years. As we accelerate our growth, new stores will be a headwind to profit margins in the short to medium term.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

However, this headwind will subside and become a tailwind as a growing number of new stores work their way up the maturity curve. New stores typically achieve profitability by year two. More importantly, investments in new stores are the highest returning use of our capital, generating returns well in excess of our cost of capital. As Mark indicated, we've made further progress on our store opening plans for 2025, and we now expect to open 25 to 30 new stores next year.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Our 2025 new store opening plan will be more balanced throughout the year versus 2024's back-end-weighted opening cadence. Investments in offsite processing are also impacting our cost of merchandise sold. Offsite processing entails additional activities and costs, including freight and overhead, resulting in pressure on our profit margins when we open a central processing center or other offsite facility and work through the initial ramp phase.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

As we increase throughput and improve productivity in these facilities, the cost per unit is declining. In our most mature CPCs in the U.S. and Canada, cost per unit is approaching the level of in-store processing. Our total cost of merchandise sold per pound processed was $0.65 in the Q3, compared to $0.64 in the Q3 last year. Salaries, wages, and benefits expense was $74 million. Excluding IPO-related stock-based compensation, salaries, wages, and benefits as a percentage of net sales decreased 70 basis points to 16.6%.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

The decrease was driven primarily by lower incentive compensation expenses. Selling general and administrative expenses as a percentage of net sales increased 50 basis points to 21.3%, primarily due to new stores and pre-opening expenses, partially offset by continued expense discipline. Depreciation and amortization increased 9% to $17 million, reflecting investments in new stores, central processing centers, and automated book processing systems.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Interest expense decreased 17% to $15 million due to reduced debt and lower average interest rates. GAAP net income for the quarter was $21.7 million, or $0.13 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $25.1 million, or $0.15 per diluted share. Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $82 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.8%. U.S. segment profit was $43.8 million, down $8.5 million versus last year, due primarily to new stores and pre-opening expenses.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Canada segment profit was $45.4 million, down $11 million versus last year, primarily due to comp store sales declines, new stores, and pre-opening expenses. Turning now to capital allocation, we remain committed to a disciplined approach that funds our growth and strengthens our balance sheet. As our business continues to generate strong cash flow, we will continue to repay debt and be opportunistic in returning capital to shareholders.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We remain on track for 29 new stores this year, and we expect operating cash flow to be more than sufficient to fund our capital expenditures. Our balance sheet remains strong with $138 million in cash and cash equivalents and a net leverage ratio of 2.1 times at the end of the quarter.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares of our common stock during the quarter at an average price of $9.86 per share. As of the end of the Q3, we had approximately $29 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization. Finally, let me discuss our updated outlook for 2024.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Based on our Q3 results and the continued macroeconomic headwinds in Canada, we are narrowing our outlook ranges for the full year to the following: total net sales to a range of $1.53 billion to 1.54 billion, comparable store sales to a range of down 1% to flat, with the U.S. up low single digits and Canada down low to mid single digits, net income to a range of $44 million to 49 million, adjusted net income to a range of $81 million to 86 million, and adjusted EBITDA to a range of $290 million to 300 million.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Our full year 2024 outlook remains unchanged for new store openings. We are still expecting a total of 29 new stores this year, which includes 22 organic openings and the seven acquired 2 Peaches locations.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We closed two stores with expiring leases in the Q3, bringing net new store growth for the year to 27. Finally, capital expenditures are planned in the range of $105 million to 115 million. Just a few final details. Our outlook for net income assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 34%, and based on our share repurchase activity to date, we are now projecting weighted average diluted shares outstanding to be approximately 167 million for the full year.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

This does not contemplate any potential future share repurchases. This concludes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the call for questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touch-tone phone. You will then hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If you would like to withdraw from the question queue, simply press star followed by two.

[Operator]

If you are using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset first before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star one now if you have any questions. First, we will hear from Matthew Boss at J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

[Matthew Boss, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Great. Thanks. To kick off, Mark, could you elaborate on the progression of same-store sales trends that you saw in the Q3 and maybe just trends that you've seen so far in October, early November in the U.S. and Canada?

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

The trend in both Canada and the U.S. improved from July through September, and that trend has continued into the early Q4.

[Matthew Boss, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Great. Michael, maybe from a bottom-line perspective, could you help break down drivers of the Q3 gross margin contraction, maybe how best to think about puts and takes in the Q4? Just as we look forward, if there was a way to kind of think about maybe the profile for same-store sales, if it's low single-digit same-store sales, how best to think about your over-year margin profile, maybe in next year relative to multi-year?

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Matt, you got it. Let me try to take those in order here. Gross profit margin deleverage in the Q3, really two drivers. It's new stores, and it's deleverage on the lower comp sales. Just as a reminder on new stores, when we open those, we're at roughly half of our mature sales levels. We don't have the same level of gross profit or net EBITDA profit.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Now, the stores do grow rapidly. They are typically profitable by year two, but that is a temporary headwind when we open the store. The good news I would say on Q3 is we talked about this a little bit last quarter, but our investments in offsite processing are really starting to be mitigated by the improvements that we're making in the cost per unit of the existing ones.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

At this point in our most mature CPCs in both countries, the U.S. and Canada, the cost per unit is now approaching parity with in-store processing. Therefore, we're at a point where our total blended cost of merchandise sold per pound that we processed during the Q3 was $0.65 this year versus $0.64 last year. Really pleased with that.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Now, as we make additional investments in offsite processing, again, that'll be a temporary increase related to that particular facility, but that'll continue to be mitigated as we drive improvement in all of the existing facilities. As far as the Q4, similar trends. We do expect deleverage again in the Q4 due to new store openings. The degree of that deleverage just really depends on how our sales play out relative to that guidance range.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

If you think about the low end of our range, it would assume overall deleverage versus LY. That's pretty similar to what we saw in Q3. At the higher end, we would have less deleverage because better sales would help mitigate that new store impact. At the higher end, it's more like it's about 100 basis points less deleverage than we had in Q3.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

To your last question, Matt, about the long-term algorithm and the margin profile, look, I think when we're at a steady state of growth, a low single-digit comp is sufficient for us to maintain an EBITDA margin from one year to the next. We are just now embarking on the beginning of this growth phase, and that has implications, right? As I just talked about with the dynamics of new stores and the way they open up.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

It's not going to be a straight line. I think that the long-term algorithm that we've discussed, we still believe in: high single-digit total revenue growth, low single-digit comps, and growing EBITDA consistently with revenue. It's not a straight line. In the near to medium term, as we're accelerating the new store openings, we're going to have some headwinds.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Given the back half-weighted nature of our openings here in 2024 and the fact that we're now opening up to 30 next year, those headwinds will likely continue into 2025. As we round the corner into 2026, we will have a significant number of young stores that are beginning to mature, that are reaching their second year, that are profitable and starting to provide a powerful tailwind and helping us deliver on that long-term algorithm.

[Matthew Boss, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

That's great color. Best of luck.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Matt.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Matt.

[Operator]

Next question will be from Brooke Roach at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Brooke.

[Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking our question. Really appreciate it. Mark, I was hoping you could elaborate on the tests that you're doing to improve the performance in the Canadian business. Were those idiosyncratic tests the primary driver of the improvement in the comp as you move through the quarter?

[Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Are those tests showing EBITDA profit margin improvement as a result of some of these revenue drivers? And is this something that you think you can copy over to your U.S. business to sequentially accelerate results there as well?

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Brooke. Great question. As we think about, let's start with the tests and what we did over the last six months. We tested several promotional and pricing strategies to spur demand: promotional cadence, promotional rate. We did some episodic sale events outside of our planned marketing calendar. Actually, in one store, we did wholesale price reductions throughout the soft part of the business.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

The last test was the strategic price reduction by category and grade. And as we looked at those tests and the results, we were most encouraged by the strategic price reductions by category and grade. And look, obviously, retail is a dynamic business. This year, and in tandem with those Canadian tests, we have invested in some new tools and processes to monitor our consumer proposition relative to the perceived price value and that perception versus our competitive set.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Through this process, look, we don't believe wholesale changes to our price points are warranted. However, we have identified and executed in this test very targeted changes in selected categories and grades where we felt competitive pressure. I stated, we were encouraged by the results relative to the control groups that we put in place.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We roll out these tools and those associated processes, and I mentioned that accompany those tests, we will, in fact, be adopting this approach throughout North America in early 2025. We're really excited about that. Why now? We've always been mindful of this competitive pricing landscape. Look, some local competitors have executed a more aggressive pricing philosophy, necessitating our acceleration into this investment in the tools and the process that I alluded to.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

By sharpening our pricing approach along with rebalancing processing, which I think was really the more influential factor in that improvement of trend line throughout the quarter at this point, we believe, and we're talking about Value Village Canada, we believe Value Village Canada shows up better to our consumer and has optimized really for us the market share stability and growth.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

I think from an impact perspective, short term, the Canadian macro is still bulk of the issue. We don't expect a material impact to the Q4 based on these test results. This is about select geographies, categories, and grades in response to some competitive pressures we're seeing in specific markets, not wholesale changes to our pricing. Look, regardless of the outcome, we are much more attuned to what is happening competitively around pricing.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

We're going to be much more proactive in adjusting price and delivering a sharper value consumer proposition, not just in Canada, but in North America in general. Look, I do think at an average unit retail of $5, we continue to offer tremendous value.

[Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Thanks for the color. Mike, can you comment on the early margin implications of some of these tests, or is it still too early to tell?

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Brooke, we're not expecting significant implications to either sales or margins in the Q4. We were encouraged, but what I would say is that you saw the implications of lower comps in Canada in the Q3. The vast majority of our costs, our cost of goods, I should say, are labor, and so it benefits us.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Our model benefits when we deliver a healthy sales yield, and so we were pleased with the metrics that we saw in these tests to sales. We think it is possible to do that without compromising margin over the long term, but we'll see how that continues to play out, and as Mark said, I don't think you'll see meaningful impact from the Q4.

[Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question will be from Mark Altschwager at Baird. Please go ahead, Mark.

[Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Baird]

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Just first, with respect to the guidance, you're holding the low end, bringing down the high end. Just talk us through the thought process there. Are you assuming that the October comp trend you're seeing continues through the balance of the quarter? Just overall, what's giving you confidence in that lower end?

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Mark. I mean, really, the narrowing to the lower half essentially is just a reflection of the way the Q3 played out. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the U.S. was pretty much in line with the trend we'd seen for most of the year and squarely in the middle of our expectations, Canada a little bit on the softer end.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

As we think about going forward into the Q4, we are not, first of all, let me just start with the macro assumptions. We're not assuming any significant change in macro conditions in either the U.S. or Canada in the Q4 at this stage with less than two months left. That seems like a reasonable assumption to us. At this point, the range of possible outcomes that we've contemplated there reflects a pretty narrow range for the U.S.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We've very consistently seen low single-digit comp growth in the U.S. all year long and across geographies, and that's what we're assuming will continue in the Q4. Really, at this stage, the open question, the variability in the range is Canada. We think we could be down anywhere from low single digits to mid-single digits in the Q4.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

The way I would describe that is on the low end, it would be more or less consistent with the Q3 trend. I mean, remember, we did have a 100 basis point impact from the holiday shift, if you normalize for that, the low end assumes we really don't see much improvement from any of the efforts that Mark described: selection, pricing, the slightly easier comparisons versus last year. The higher end assumes that we do see something from that.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

I think we're encouraged by the trajectory. We certainly exited the quarter on a better trend than we started it, and thus far, that has continued into the Q4.

[Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Baird]

Very helpful. Thank you. A follow-up on the production and inventory flow topic. For Canada, you mentioned that you pulled back perhaps too much. There wasn't enough newness, and then you ramped it back up. What data or signals are you using to manage that kind of on the week-to-week, month-to-month basis?

[Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Baird]

I guess the learning there would maybe seem to imply a limit to the margin flexibility. How should we think about that? I guess, what is the baseline comp that is needed to hold four-wall gross margin flat, given that there's this minimum labor investment to kind of feed that newness on the floor? Thank you.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Hey, Mark, this is Jubran. It's a great question. As Mark and Michael talked about, yeah, selection is a critical component of the value proposition. By selection, I'm referring to the sheer number of items that a store might put to their floor in a week. We think we pulled back a little bit too hard in Canada. We've since readjusted.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

It's always a balance, right, between preserving and protecting profitability and then ensuring a steady flow of fresh product for the customer. And we do our best to match supply and demand in that way, like any manufacturing operation would. It's true. We can modulate production. But to your question, within a certain control limit, right, say plus or minus a few points. I think we've really appreciated that over the last quarter.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

I would also say to your point of what do we index to, we look at transaction volumes in a store. We try to match where we think transaction volumes and transaction comps are going with the number of items that are going to the sales floor.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

I think as we go forward, we have raised production levels in Canada. I think we think about it in terms of going forward, a much more gradual flexing of production levels over longer time frames, right? One or two weeks does not a trend make in what I'm describing and the number of items that hit a floor per transaction.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

As we go forward, we're thinking about this more in terms of we will always look to manipulate and optimize production levels, but doing that in a more gradual way and over a longer time frame, if that makes sense.

[Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Baird]

That does. Thank you for all the detail.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question will be from Bob Drbul at Guggenheim. Please go ahead, Bob.

[Bob Drbul, Analyst at Guggenheim]

Hi. Good afternoon. If I could just focus a little more on some of the discussion around the new store economics, just as you continue to open stores and you go for 30 next year, just in terms of the paybacks or the new store investments, any other sort of numbers you can share with us just around what you're seeing? I know they seem to be performing pretty well, but it'll be helpful if we could get a little more of the framework around some of these things.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Hi, Bob. It's Michael. Sure. Happy to talk about the economics and then maybe I'll let Jubran just talk a little bit about more specifically the recent performance of our new store class, so as we talked about before and as I mentioned earlier, when we open a new store, typically in the first year, it does roughly half the volume that it'll do when it reaches maturity, which we define as about year five.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Because of that, and we've got some fixed costs that we're not yet leveraging, and our production, we're not fully up to a mature store level of productivity on production and sales yield on that, we typically see new stores lose money in the first year, but they grow quickly on the top line, and we're typically profitable by the second year.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Over the course of the life of the store, as we see that growth play out and the store quickly becomes cash flow positive, we're generating very healthy returns. We're seeing returns typically around double or better our cost of capital. But the implications to our EBITDA and our EBITDA margins in the near term, I think, is the gist of your question, is it's a headwind.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Especially as we're starting from the place we're in today, where we really haven't had anywhere near the level of new store openings that we're now about to embark on, that we are embarking on here in 2024, and that we expect to accelerate into 2025, what that means is that we've got a significant number of new stores that are still in that year one point where they're not profitable.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We don't yet have a critical mass of stores that are in their second or third years generating better than average comps and quickly growing their bottom lines. That's especially pronounced, that impact on the back half here of 2024, as we're opening 18 of our 22 new stores this year in the back half, and then going into 2025, where we'll open up to 30 more new stores.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

As those stores work their way up the maturity curve and enter their second years, that's going to start becoming a tailwind. I'll use the 2023 class as a good example of that. We opened those in 2023. They're not yet comp stores by our definition. They will be next year. They're maturing exactly as we would like. In fact, we're very pleased with those, and Jubran can speak to that, but they're profitable.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

That group is profitable now. Both countries, all but one or two of the stores in that group individually are profitable, and so the class as a whole is profitable as well, and so that's the dynamic that we expect to play out on our future cohorts as well.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Bob, Jubran here, I'll just add on to what Michael said, that obviously pleased with how the new stores are performing in the aggregate, both top line and bottom line, also pleased that our predictive model that we use when we approve and sign a lease for any new store is showing that no model is perfect, it's been pretty close to the pin, and that really gives us confidence as we look to find good deals, accelerate, and do them quickly. Because again, the pipeline's growing.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Any new deals that we have flowing at this stage of the game, we're talking about early 2026 now. We're starting to fill up the pipeline for early 2026 stores. I think we've mentioned in the past that we were backloaded on new stores opening this year, right, with the preponderance of them in Q3 and Q4.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Now we are in a steady state where we expect new store openings within reason to feather across the quarters from here on out, certainly across 2025 in a more balanced way. That just makes things a lot easier for the team, helps ensure execution, all the things that we would expect.

[Bob Drbul, Analyst at Guggenheim]

Great. Thank you. Good luck.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Bob.

[Operator]

Next question will be from Randal Konik at Jefferies. Please go ahead, Randy.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hey, a quick clarification item. Can you just give me the percentage increase in on-site and GreenDrop donations during the quarter, and then what percentage of total pounds were processed in the quarter?

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Sorry, Randy, what was the second part of your question there?

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

The percentage of the total pounds that came in that you guys processed through GreenDrop.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Through GreenDrop, or you mean through on-site donations?

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Sorry.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Through on-site donations.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Versus getting from a third party.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

For delivery.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, so we're north of 75% on that, Randy. I'll get you the specific percentages on that.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Randy, what I will say is onsite donations as a percentage of our total processing continues to be very robust. I think Michael's right. We'll get the exact percentage on that. What we do know is that onsite donations continue to comp positive across the fleet

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Now, there's weeks here and there and store by store, but in general, we are seeing pretty robust growth in onsite donation comps. Randy, just to give you the exact number on that, just shy of 80% was onsite donations and GreenDrop combined. That's up from around 78% last year.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Great. All right. That metric continues to grow. That's good. Can you just kind of, I might have missed it because I jumped on late here. Just did you talk about kind of the actions you're trying to take to mitigate kind of the macro difficulties in Canada? What steps are you trying to kind of, what are you looking at to try to change, maybe drive more traffic? What are you doing up there? Just give us more of a flavor that you may not have covered already. Thanks.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Randy. We did cover that. Happy to quickly go over it, and if I eliminate some of the detail so not to be repetitive, we can catch up with you secondarily. Look, we completed five significant promotional and pricing strategy tests over the last six months, with the most promising result being strategic price reductions by category and grade.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Along and in tandem with those tests, we have invested in some new tools and processes to monitor our consumer proposition relative to perceived price value versus the competitive set. We don't think wholesale changes to price points are warranted, it's important we have identified and executed in the test very targeted changes in select categories and grades where we felt competitive pressure, and as I stated earlier, we're encouraged by these results.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

As we roll out this further in Canada, and we're going to roll out these tools and these processes throughout North America, we'll be adopting this approach in North America in early 2025 throughout the entire North American fleet. I can fill in some details for you separately, I don't want to repeat a lot of the stuff we said already.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Awesome. Thanks so much. Thanks, guys.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question will be from Peter Keith at Piper Sandler. Please go ahead, Peter.

[Peter Keith, Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Hey. Thanks. Good evening. Michael, maybe on the gross margin pressure for the quarter, I was hoping you could quantify the pressure that you're seeing from the new stores because it's coming across very clear that this is going to remain a pretty consistent headwind for at least the next year. I guess if you could break it out, it would help us to put that into our models properly.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Peter, it's pretty consistent, roughly equal between those two factors of new stores and deleverage on the lower comps.

[Peter Keith, Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Okay. Very helpful. Mark, maybe for you, just on the Canada backdrop, maybe I just need a little bit of handholding here. If you've done any research on the economy there, other retailers seeing pressure, because we're just not seeing other retailers call out big Canada weakness. I know there's some Canadian retail sales for apparel, and that's run positive in recent months. What are you guys seeing that sort of makes you feel like it is macro and not company specific?

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Well, okay, we'll start with some economic facts. We're seeing, we know there are a lot of macro pressures in Canada, unemployment that Michael mentioned, housing crisis, certainly. As reported by Statistics Canada, apparel sales are down in Canada every single month this year, as reported by the Canadian government.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Year to date, we seem to be holding our own versus the broader market. Again, that's that we're not terribly pleased with our results given our comp performance. As we think about who is that Value Village consumer in Canada, look, it's a broad cross-section of the consumer landscape. We are highly penetrated, 90% brand awareness. We estimate we're in one in three households. We've done some work and third-party surveys for shoppers, especially our coming under greater financial stress.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

While we're seeing modest trade down in our environment, as higher income households, as a percent of our total customer base has risen, that has been more than offset by the pullback in lower household demographic. Just as a reminder, over 20% of our consumers live below the poverty line. They're making trade-offs on necessities, and we think really they're sidelined. Ultimately, what we're seeing from a loyalty base and from a non-loyalty base is frequency has declined.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Attrition's actually been very stable and low. We feel good about our long-term outlook because we have not seen people attrit, but we have seen frequency decline. We're not expecting material improvement in Canada in the near term. Some economists are projecting some modest improvement in 2025. We will continue to watch unemployment, household debt, consumer spending data, and our own loyalty and survey data.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

Until then, we're trying to control what we can control and taking a more cautious approach to planning. We're certainly looking to increase innovation and operational effectiveness to be ready for that economic improvement, take advantage of that long-term. I think in terms of our long-term perspective, especially when it comes to new stores, we've always planned to pivot growth to the U.S. versus Canada.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

I think the current macro situation is reinforcing this. As we think about new stores in 2025, they will be much more heavily weighted to the U.S. than they are to Canada. Hopefully, that answers some or most of your questions.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Yes, it does. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question will be from Michael Lassar at UBS. Please go ahead, Michael. Your line is open. Michael, please go ahead.

[Sachin Verma, Analyst at UBS]

Good evening. This is Sachin Verma on the line for Michael Lassar. Thank you for taking our question. We wanted to know, given the softening top line throughout the year and this quarter's current performance, what actions would you need to take in the business beyond the near-term strategies in Canada to bridge the gap between this quarter and your long-term algorithm? Thank you.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

I think obviously the biggest gap, I think, as you describe it, would be the macroeconomic environment in Canada and our comp performance there. Mark laid out some of the factors that we think are in our control that can influence that and improve that. In fact, so far, we've already seen some measurable improvement in Canada over the last few months from our efforts in selection alone.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

Our exit rate into the quarter and entering the fourth is certainly better than our third-quarter comp. We will continue to strive to get that balance right. We're going to continue to work on the price-value equation, as Mark described that. I think the economic cycle will eventually turn as well, and that'll sort of bridge the gap from a comp store basis.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

I think, as we've described, our long-term comp algorithm is for low single digits. The biggest strategic shift from that to our long-term outlook is really about new store growth. We opened 12 last year, 22 this year, and we're now tracking to 25 to 30 next year. That puts us on a trajectory for high single-digit total revenue growth over the long term.

[Michael Maher, CFO at Savers Value Village]

We're very pleased with the results of our new store opening. I think the combination of accelerating new store growth, which we're already doing, and then seeing some comp store trend improvements primarily in Canada are really what we're looking to going forward.

[Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you. The follow-up is, given the trends that you've seen with the processing improving later, how do you expect this to stabilize? In other words, what actions are you taking to calibrate the level of processing to align optimally? Thank you.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

This is Jubran. Again, I think it comes back to matching it to transaction volume and then being very mindful and gradual about changes in production level, right? Again, not manipulating in a severe way production levels just because we see a transaction dip in Canada or any other country over the course of a week or two.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Being gradual, being mindful about that is really the approach. As I mentioned earlier, it's one of the great levers we have, but it's within a few points of center is how we think about it, right? We're not going to be able to react to something that is way off center, nor do we want to if we're talking about what we think is a short-term dip. I think going forward, that puts us in a much more stable place.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

That's absolutely appropriate as we think about the future.

[Operator]

Did you have additional questions?

[Sachin Verma, Analyst at UBS]

No, thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on a touch-tone phone. Next, we'll hear from Anthony Chukumba at Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Anthony.

[Anthony Chukumba, Analyst at Loop Capital Market]

Good morning. Sorry, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Certainly understand that there's always sort of a balancing act between processing, particularly when top line is slowing down and trying to control costs, but also making sure you're offering enough assortment.

[Anthony Chukumba, Analyst at Loop Capital Market]

Would love to just, if you could sort of dimensionalize even kind of direction, like how much you slowed down the processing in Canada where you admittedly sort of went too far and then how much you've sort of turned the spigot back on, which it seems like led to an improvement, at least sequentially in terms of your top line. Thanks.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Hey, Anthony, this is Jubran. It's a good question. The first thing that I would say is we never look at it in aggregate, right? When we look at matching the appropriate production level to the transaction trend that we're seeing, it's always on a store-by-store basis. That's the first thing. It has to be that way, right, to be appropriate for those four walls.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

The second thing is determining when do we have a trend, right? You think about all sorts of factors: timing of support checks from the government, weather anomalies. There's a number of things that can cause noise. I think some of this is, when you look at it retrospectively, it's a little bit easier to see.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Again, as both Mark and Michael mentioned, when we readjusted, we increased production level on a number of stores where we thought that we had gone too far, we saw an immediate reaction to that. That really is sort of a control and variable.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

That's what told us that probably went too far on this. Look, I think it's instructive. How far off of where we should have been were we to your question? That's a very difficult question to answer. I don't know. I would be guessing, and I don't want to do that. Clearly, when we restored it, it snapped back. Then the obvious question, well, can you feed it even more?

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Then you start to tip the other way on the balance scale where you're really starting to erode margin, and the amount of demand and transactions that you have don't warrant that level of production. I would tell you over the long term, Anthony, what we expect, and we're watching it closely, is that over time, production levels in aggregate continue to go up and to the right to feed transaction volume that goes up and to the right. It's absolutely a multivariable equation. We just want to make sure that we're not banging wildly from guardrail to guardrail on this.

[Anthony Chukumba, Analyst at Loop Capital Market]

Got it. Fair enough. Just one quick follow-up. I know it's still early, but any updates in terms of the 2 Peaches acquisition integration?

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Great question. Just as a reminder, we acquired 2 Peaches just about six months ago. This is a seven-store chain in the greater Atlanta market, Georgia. Look, our thesis going into that was that these stores have a lot of opportunity. So of the seven stores we have over the last six months, converted two of the seven stores.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

By convert, I mean put onto the Savers model of how we show up to the customer. And tactically, that means production levels, merchandising techniques, selection and floor turn, calibrating space to sales, a whole host of tactics. The great news is that we are seeing significant double-digit comp sales growth in both of those locations. Pleased with that. Again, we chose two first to understand what the roadmap should look like for conversion of the remaining five.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

I would say, based on what we've learned, we feel great about it. Over the coming 12 to 18 months, we look to convert the rest of them and then build out upon that with some of the new store growth that Michael talked about earlier, where we're opening new stores in lots of infill markets. We see the U.S. Southeast as an opportunity to infill in that market and beyond as we go forward.

[Anthony Chukumba, Analyst at Loop Capital Market]

That's helpful. Thank you.

[Jubran Tanious, President and COO at Savers Value Village]

Thanks, Anthony.

[Operator]

Thanks to Anthony. And at this time, Mr. Walsh, we have no other questions registered. Sir, please proceed.

[Mark Walsh, CEO at Savers Value Village]

I'd like to thank everyone for their time this afternoon and interest in Savers Value Village, and we certainly look forward to speaking with many of you in the days and weeks to come. Thank you again.

[Operator]

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Mark Walsh, CEO
• Michael Maher, CFO
• Jubran Tanious, President and COO

Analysts

• Matthew Boss, Analyst at J.P. Morgan
• Brooke Roach, Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Baird
• Bob Drbul, Analyst at Guggenheim
• Randy Konik, Analyst at Jefferies
• Peter Keith, Analyst at Piper Sandler
• Sachin Verma, Analyst at UBS
• Anthony Chukumba, Analyst at Loop Capital Market