A. O. Smith Q1 2024 Earnings Report

A. O. Smith EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.00
• Consensus EPS: $0.99
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.94

A. O. Smith Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $978.80 million
• Expected Revenue: $995.91 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$17.11 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +1.30%

A. O. Smith Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2024
• Date: 4/25/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, April 25, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

A. O. Smith (NYSE:AOS), based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a leading manufacturer of water heating and water treatment products for residential and commercial applications. Since its founding in 1874, the company has built a reputation for producing reliable, energy-efficient water heaters, boilers and pressure vessels. Its product portfolio encompasses gas, electric, condensing and tankless water heaters, as well as specialty boilers designed to meet a variety of building and industrial needs.

The company operates through two primary segments: North America and Asia. In North America, A. O. Smith serves homeowners, contractors and building operators with well-established brands that deliver high performance, safety and long service life. In Asia, the company has expanded its presence with water heating and water purification solutions tailored to rapidly growing urban markets, leveraging local manufacturing facilities and an extensive sales network throughout China and parts of South Asia.

A. O. Smith has grown from its origins as a pump manufacturer into a global enterprise with production plants and research centers in the United States, China and India. The company’s emphasis on product innovation is supported by engineering teams dedicated to improving energy efficiency and reducing environmental impact. Patrick S. Decker has served as President and Chief Executive Officer since 2011, guiding A. O. Smith through periods of expansion and technological advancement.

With a long history of industrial manufacturing expertise, A. O. Smith continues to focus on sustainable solutions and customer support services. Its product offerings increasingly incorporate smart-control technologies and advanced materials to meet evolving regulatory standards and end-user expectations for safety, efficiency and durability.

A. O. Smith Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• A. O. Smith reported Q1 global sales of $979 million and adjusted EPS of $1.06, a 6% year-over-year increase, with North America sales up 2% and segment margin improvement of 80 bps.
• The company reaffirmed full-year 2024 guidance of $3.90–$4.15 EPS and 3%–5% sales growth, while noting a slight steel cost headwind and an estimated 50 bps margin drag from initial gas tankless product shipments.
• China sales growth guidance was lowered to flat–3% in local currency due to continued weak consumer demand and real estate market challenges, despite contributions from new kitchen and HVAC product launches.
• A. O. Smith is investing in capacity and innovation with projects including a tankless manufacturing facility in Juarez, expanded commercial water heater and R&D facilities in South Carolina and Tennessee, and the acquisition of Impact Water Products.
• Q1 free cash flow declined to $85 million due to higher incentive payouts and inventory levels, while capex rose for expansion projects; the company ended March with a $183 million net cash position and 6% leverage.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the A. O. Smith first quarter 2024 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star one one on your telephone. You'll then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Helen Gerholt. Please go ahead.

[Helen Gurholt, VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis at A. O. Smith]

Good morning, and welcome to the A. O. Smith First Quarter conference call. I'm Helen Gerhold, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Joining me today are Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Chuck Lauber, Chief Financial Officer. In order to provide improved transparency into the operating results of our business, we provided non-GAAP measures. Free cash flow is defined as cash from operations, less capital expenditures. Adjusted earnings, adjusted earnings per share, adjusted segment earnings, and adjusted corporate expenses exclude the impact of impairment expenses. Reconciliations from GAAP measures to non-GAAP measures are provided in the appendix at the end of this presentation and on our website. A friendly reminder that some of our comments and answers during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different.

[Helen Gurholt, VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis at A. O. Smith]

Those risks include matters that we described in this morning's press release, among others. Also, as a courtesy to others in the question queue, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up per turn. If you have multiple questions, please rejoin the queue. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. You can access them on our website at investor.aosmith.com. I will now turn the call over to Kevin to begin our prepared remarks.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Thank you, Helen, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start off by extending a warm welcome to Steve Schaefer, who has recently joined A. O. Smith as our Chief Operating Officer. Steve is an accomplished business leader with deep global experience in manufacturing and leading innovative businesses. His strategic acumen and extensive global leadership experience will prove invaluable as we continue to focus on innovation and driving operational performance to enhance shareholder value. Let's now turn to the quarter on slide 4. Our global A. O. Smith team delivered sales of $979 million in 2024, and EPS of $1, a 6% increase over 2023 adjusted EPS. North America sales increased 2%, and segment margins increased 80 basis points due to a positive mix, higher commercial volumes, and lower material costs, principally steel. Our Rest of World segment sales grew 4%.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Recently introduced products in China contributed to the majority of the growth. In India, our sales grew 16% local currency in the first quarter of 2024. Please turn to slide 5. North America water heater sales grew 2% in the first quarter due to higher commercial volumes and a positive mix towards commercial gas and high-efficiency products, including heat pumps. Volumes were favorably influenced by our price increase, effective March 1. However, year-over-year comps were somewhat muted by a strong first quarter of 2023. Our North America boiler sales were flat compared to the first quarter of 2023. As a reminder, we did not begin to see the effects of the 2023 channel inventory destocking until the second quarter of last year.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

We were pleased to see sales of our high-efficiency residential boilers return to more normalized levels in the first quarter of 2024. Sales of our Crest commercial boilers with Hellcat technology increased over 30% in the quarter. North America water treatment sales grew 4% in 2024, driven by acquisition-related sales growth and pricing. Organic growth in the e-commerce and specialty wholesale channels were offset by softness in the direct-to-consumer and retail channels. In China, first quarter third-party sales increased 6% in local currency. Our recently launched kitchen products continue to be well-received in the market and provide bundling opportunities that drive overall sales growth. Sales of our HVAC systems, which generally combine a combi boiler with a heat pump water heater, increased 14% local currency in the quarter as well.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

I will now turn the call over to Chuck, who will provide more details on our first quarter performance.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I'm on slide six. First quarter sales in the North America segment were $766 million, a 2% increase compared with 2023, driven by higher commercial volumes and the benefits of mix shift towards high-efficiency water heaters, including heat pumps. North America segment earnings of $199 million increased 5% compared with 2023. Segment margin was 25.9%, an increase of 80 basis points year-over-year. The higher segment earnings and margin were primarily driven by positive mix and lower material costs, partially offset by selling and advertising expenses in support of higher sales. Moving to slide seven.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Rest of World segment sales of $227 million increased 4% year-over-year, including unfavorable currency translation of $9 million, primarily related to China. Segment third-party sales of $219 million increased 4% on a constant currency basis. The increase was primarily driven by higher sales of kitchen and HVAC products in China. India sales increased 16% in local currency in the quarter, driven by growth in both water heating and water treatment, with particular strength in our e-commerce and commercial end markets. Rest of World segment earnings of $17 million decreased slightly compared to adjusted segment earnings in 2023, primarily due to sales promotions associated with new product introductions and product mix in China.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Third-party segment operating margin was 7.9%, a decrease of 20 basis points compared to adjusted segment margins in 2023. Please turn to slide 8. We generated free cash flow of $85 million during the first three months of 2024, a decrease from the same period last year, primarily as a result of higher incentive payments associated with record sales and profits last year, and higher inventory levels that more than offset higher earnings and lower accounts payable balances. Capital expenditures increased $11 million year-over-year, driven by expansion projects. Our cash balance totaled $303 million at the end of March, and our net cash position was $183 million. Our leverage ratio was 6%, as measured by total debt to total capital. Let's now turn to slide 9.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

In addition to returning capital to shareholders, we continue to see opportunities for investment in organic growth, innovation, and new product development across all of our product lines and geographies. We target strategic acquisitions that meet our financial metrics, are accretive to earnings in the first year, and return our cost of capital in 3 years. In the first quarter, we welcomed Impact Water Products to the A. O. Smith family. Impact supports our growth strategy by expanding the West Coast presence of our water treatment business. Please turn to slide 10 in our 2024 earnings guidance and outlook. We reaffirm our 2024 EPS outlook of an expected range of $3.90-$4.15 per share. The midpoint of our EPS range represents an increase of 6% compared with 2023 adjusted EPS.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Our outlook is based on a number of key assumptions, including: Our guidance assumes that our steel costs in the full year 2024 will be a slight headwind compared to 2023. We project an increase in steel input costs in the second quarter of approximately 20% over the first quarter. Our full-year steel input cost projection includes a slight decline in the steel price index in the second half of the year. Our outlook assumes non-steel material costs are similar in 2024 as they were in 2023. Our guidance also assumes a relatively stable supply chain environment, similar to what we've experienced throughout 2023. We introduced our internally designed and manufactured gas tankless products earlier this year.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

These products will be manufactured in our China facility until our North America capacity is completed in 2025. We expect customer shipments to begin later in the second quarter. Associated import tariffs and other launch costs will negatively impact North America margins by approximately 50 basis points when we begin to ship product. We are investing in manufacturing in Juarez, Mexico, that will eliminate the tariff in the future. For the year, CapEx should be between $105 million and $115 million, an increase year-over-year due to capital or the capacity expansion projects related to our gas tankless manufacturing facility in Juarez, expansion of our engineering capabilities in Lebanon, Tennessee, and adding high-efficiency commercial water heating manufacturing capacity to align with regulatory changes coming in 2026.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

We expect to generate strong free cash flow of between $525 million and $575 million. Corporate and other expenses are expected to be approximately $65 million. Our effective tax rate is estimated to be between 24% to 24.5%, and we continue to expect to repurchase approximately $300 million of our shares of stock, resulting in outstanding diluted shares of 147 million at the end of the year. I will now turn the call back over to Kevin, who will provide more color on key markets and top-line growth outlook and segment expectations for 2024, staying on slide 13. Kevin?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Thank you, Chuck. We reaffirm our outlook that 2024 sales will grow between 3% and 5% compared to 2023, which includes the following assumptions. We maintain our projection that 2024 U.S. residential industry unit volumes will be approximately flat to last year, after seeing a 6% growth in 2023. Our assumption projects that new home construction and proactive replacement will remain at levels similar to last year. Our projection that U.S. commercial water heater industry volumes will increase low single digits in 2024 is unchanged. Our outlook includes the announced price increases in North America water heating of 4% on most of our water heater products. Price increase for heat pump products is 8%. Our April orders are strong year-over-year as a result, as a result of resilient end demand and our management of pre-buy orders.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

In China, we believe that the economy and consumer confidence remains weak, and the real estate and housing markets are challenged. We have not seen signs of improvement. Through March and April, we have seen headwinds in consumer demand. Given the continued weak economy and the softness we are seeing, we are lowering our 2024 third-party sales growth guidance in China to be flat to 3% up in local currency. Our forecast assumes a negative currency translation impact of approximately 1% for the year. We entered the second quarter with a strong backlog in our boiler business and reaffirmed that we expect boiler sales to grow between 8% and 10% over last year. We are revising our sales growth guidance for North America water treatment products from an increase of 10%-12% to an increase of 8%-10%.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

This reduction is a reflection of softness we are experiencing in our direct-to-consumer business, average order price in our retail channel, particularly for water softeners. Based on our 2024 assumptions, we expect our North America segment margin to be approximately 25%, and Rest of World third-party segment margin to be approximately 10%. Please turn to slide 11. We are pleased with our performance in early 2024. We had year-over-year growth in residential and commercial water heaters, along with a strong mix in the first quarter, and we are pleased with our order rates we are seeing in this month. India is on track for another year of projected double digits sales growth. During the quarter, we initiated three capital expansion projects that will add capacity for key product categories in North America.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

First, we broke ground on our tankless manufacturing facility in Juarez, which is on the same campus as our current residential water heater facility. Production in Juarez will improve logistics as well as eliminate the tariff on products currently manufactured in our China facility. Production is targeted to begin in 2025. In addition, we launched our high-efficiency commercial gas water heater expansion in McBee, South Carolina. This expansion will increase our production capacity for our high-efficiency products, including our market-leading Cyclone product. As a reminder, Department of Energy regulatory changes, largely impacting commercial gas water heater efficiency levels, will eliminate lower efficiency products from the market beginning in late 2026. Finally, in support of our R&D and product innovation within our commercial water heater and boiler markets, we have initiated the expansion of our Lebanon, Tennessee, commercial lab and engineering test facility.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

This state-of-the-art facility will combine our commercial water heating engineering expertise under one roof and allow for cross-functional collaboration, particularly with mutual technologies like heat pump. We are in the early stages of all three projects, but we're off to a very good start. As always, we remain focused on meeting the needs of our customers, as well as executing our key strategic priorities to advance our position as a leader in heating and treating water around the world. With that, we conclude our prepared remarks and we are now available for your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star one, one on your telephone. If your question has been answered, or wish to move yourself from the queue, please press star one, one again, and we also ask that you keep yourself to two questions. We'll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Your line is open.

[Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, this is James on for Saree. Thanks for taking questions. I wanted to ask about the first quarter water heater demand. January and February shipments came in higher than your full year expectation. Can you kind of talk about what you saw from the water heater demand in the first quarter and potentially into April?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, certainly, you saw the January, February AHRI data, and that was up, and a portion of that was really due to a pre-buy based on our price increase. We expect and see March coming in at a more normalized level and starting to get back to our forecast of a flat 2024 on the residential side of the business. We entered April with a really strong backlog, and we'll be working that down in the second quarter. It kind of behaved like we thought. We thought the 4% was probably would not have as much of a pre-buy as it did, but it did, and we're working through that. We feel we got our fair share of orders from our customers.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

And again, in the second quarter, we'll work down that backlog and we remain on track, and it's really ties right into our forecast and our where we expect the year to end.

[Analyst at Jefferies]

Got it. Thanks for the color. I wanted to touch on the margin here. I think you're now looking for North America segment margin to come in at a higher end of the range, while, like, maintaining the steel cost expectation. So can you kind of provide more color on increasing your margin expectation for North America?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I mean, we had previously guided to 24.5-25. Now we're saying approximately 25. We're very pleased with our North America margin performance in the first quarter. Came in, you know, nicely, helped a bit by mix. We had some weather, you know, situations in January, and the plants performed very well coming through that. So as we kind of look at the top end of that range and moved it slightly up, it's just, you know, some confidence in kind of the way the, the operations are running.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

We have pricing coming in the April time frame with steel costs going up, so there's a bit of pressure in the back half. But the way we started out and kind of looking through the full year and considering, you know, some of the launch costs that we know will be coming at us in the later part of the year with tankless, we feel pretty comfortable with moving closer to 25.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird. Your line is open.

[Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird]

Hey, good morning, everyone.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Hey, Mike.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Good morning.

[Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird]

I just want to clarify what you were talking to right there, Chuck. When you said pressure in the back half, you mean pressure sequentially versus front half, not year-over-year?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Correct. Sequentially. Yeah.

[Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird]

Okay. How do you manage?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

We're thinking about North America margins, you know, our lowest steel cost that we project for the year is in Q1. So we'll see some pressure on steel in the back three quarters of the year, quite actually. And then just relative to the first quarter, a little bit of pressure as we're, you know, excited to launch our tankless product. But for the time being, until we get production up running in Mexico, it's gonna be a bit of a headwind to North America margins of about 50 basis points.

[Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird]

So what you're essentially suggesting then is 1Q might be the high watermark, 2Q is still decent. Well, they're all decent margins regardless, and then back half just down a touch from front half, right?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Right. Right. Yeah, you know-

[Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird]

Okay.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

25.9 in Q1, and then we're saying about 25 for the year.

[Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird]

So then could you put the earnings seasonality in context and how you're expecting the earnings to flow through? Is this a relatively normal seasonal year from your perspective, or do some of these margin nuances shift that around a bit?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, when we kind of look at water heater volume, and there's noise in the first quarter, as Kevin mentioned, there's a bit of pull-in, but when you kind of look at the whole year, it's still our projection is it's still 52-48 balance from half, back half. And then you think about historically, you know, boilers are typically stronger in the third quarter, so we would hope that that, you know, mix would help us a bit on margin. But relative to prior years, it's pretty normal, Mike, is the way we have our outlook.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

[Susan Maklari, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Good morning, Susan.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Good morning.

[Susan Maklari, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

My first question is, you know, given the level of pull forward that you mentioned in the first quarter on the residential side, how would you characterize channel inventories coming into the second quarter? Any thought on where that stands?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I would tell you, based on the feedback that we have from our distributors, our distributors are all doing pretty well too, you know, even just slightly up. Inventories are basically in line. There's gonna be some pull forward, but they'll work that off in the second quarter. So things overall are pretty positive with our distributors. I wouldn't say crazy positive, but certainly they're starting the year off in a more positive sales kind of mode. And I don't think with this whole pull forward, this is not a unique thing in our industry. We've gone through it many times with our distributors. It was right in line where we thought, and we see that being worked off in the second quarter.

[Susan Maklari, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Okay.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I'll just add that some of the pull forward was within the quarter. You know, you saw the strong data that came out on AHRI through February. You know, for us, we saw a bit of moderation in March as we kind of worked through that price increase.

[Susan Maklari, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Okay. All right, that's helpful. And then maybe turning to commercial, you know, you highlighted that as a bright spot in the quarter. Just any further color on what drove that strength that you're seeing and the sustainability of it as we go into the spring and the summer?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

I think there's a couple points you're making with regards to commercial. One, there was a pre-buy there as well. What was a bit different is if you look back to last year and the increase we had in the commercial market, a lot of it was that greater than 55 gallon electric. In the quarter, we saw commercial gas up kind of mid single digits, which was a nice positive surprise. We don't think that was all pre-buy, but overall, you know, the industry, we said it's gonna be that low single digit growth. We still think of the majority of that's gonna be in the electric category, and we're optimistic that part of that will also come in our commercial gas.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Ending the year, really favorable, and I think we're right in line with that low single-digit growth rate for the commercial market.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matt Somerville with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

[Matt Summerville, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Yeah, thanks. A couple questions, and I apologize if you touched on this, but just with respect to China, in the 0%-3% constant currency growth expected, can you kind of touch on your main product categories, water heaters, water treatment, some of the newer products, kitchen and HVAC? Relative to that 0%-3%, how do you see those product groupings positioned, if you will?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, so we did lower it a bit, our guidance. We were saying 3-5, and last year we grew at 3%-5%, Matt. And, you know, some of that is kind of what we've seen in demand through the first 4 months of the year. We've seen a bit of pressure on our core products as we've come in through the end of April and seen a bit of slowness in the market with core products. The newer products, the kitchen products that we've launched, you know, year-over-year, certainly we launched this at the end of last year, so they continue to be well received. It's just early on in that process.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

So seeing a little bit of pressure on the order rates, in you know through April.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I just maybe to tie into that, it—Q1, we saw some heavy promotions, particularly in the March timeframe. And we took an approach that we were very selective and targeted how we went to market on our approach. We have a premium brand there and really treated it as much. So part of that softness we saw in some of the water heating and water treatment product had to do with that. We're not concerned about it, but as you look forward, there's a couple of big drivers there. Consumer sentiment is just not coming back, and the overhang from the real estate market is still there. So what we—we moved it down because that's what we're seeing today.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

As you know, in China, things can change pretty rapidly, but we feel positive that, you know, we're still gonna be in that, that flat to up market. We're still getting our fair share, I think, of the product categories, and we're being very selective on how we're spending our money, when it comes to promotion. And we're gonna continue to watch our expenses to kind of balance that sales and profitability, for the China business.

[Matt Summerville, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Got it. And then as a follow-up, still sticking with China, what's your assessment of channel inventories in China? And then can you remind us how much of your China business today you feel is driven by replacement versus new?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I mean, channel inventories, you know, pretty normalized right now, we believe. They're kind of in that normal range. We're estimating replacement business is on the water heating side about 50%-60% in that range. So that does help our resiliency in China to have that buffer of replacement business continue to kind of drive a portion of our volume.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment before our next question. Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc. Your line is open.

[Jeff Hammond, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Morning.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Hey, good morning.

[Jeff Hammond, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc]

Hey, so just some clarifications here. Did you quantify, or can you quantify, you know, how much you think was pulled forward to Q2 from 1Q from the pre-buy? And then just this 50 basis point headwind from, you know, shipping product, is that kind of a full year impact? And, you know, when do you think that the plant opens, and what happens to that headwind, you know, once you get the plant open in Juarez?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, that - I mean, that 50 basis points is a full year impact. It's kind of on an annualized basis. And, you know, production is scheduled mid-2025, roughly. We've broken ground. We've made good progress. We'll, you know, we'll give updates as we go, but we're pleased with the start of the construction of the facility in Juarez. You know, the quantification of the pull forward in Q1, it's always a little bit difficult to estimate that. You know, it wasn't a huge price increase, 4%. Did drive some volume. Clearly, we saw that in the data through February. We felt a bit, you know, a bit of relief of that volume in March. Order rates are still strong through April. We do have a backlog, though, as we exit the quarter.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

So it doesn't impact our full-year outlook, not, not a significant amount, we don't believe in the quarter, but there was some.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Maybe just to make a comment on this, we also limit the amount of pre-buy that we have with our price increases. We realize that, you know, people are gonna try to pull forward a bit, but it's gonna be less than 30 days. And again, it's really difficult because business has been pretty good going through the first quarter. How much was pre-buy? How much was just the need for the market? And I think it's gonna wash itself out as we, you know, go into the next months or so. And that's why we've kept our flat US residential industry volumes where they're at. We don't think the pre-buy is gonna change our outlook at all.

[Jeff Hammond, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc]

Okay. And then, just on the high mix product shift, how much of that is kind of being driven by, you know, clarification or support from IRA? And then, you know, how sustainable do you think this kind of mix shift is?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I would tell you the mix shift is. I'll separate that from the gas side of the business, and we've always been a high-efficiency leader, and that continues to, as people replace their existing lower-efficiency products, that continues to replace those with higher-efficiency. On the heat pump, rebates matter, and they're very regionalized to more on the West Coast and parts of the East, and they do matter and—but there's a number of programs out there, certainly where we're going with the regulatory side of this in 2029. So we see this as not a one-time. You know, we, we've been increasing 20%, 30%, 40% on the year on heat pumps for the last three years.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

We expect that's gonna continue to 20-25% as we get closer to 2029. This is not a one-time. It's gonna be an ongoing growth, and we expect that kind of growth over the next few years.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment before our next question. Our next question comes from Scott Graham with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open.

[Scott Graham, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Hey, good morning, Kevin, Chuck, Helen. Thanks for taking my question.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Hey, Scott.

[Scott Graham, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

I wanted to understand, you know, maybe ask the pre-buy question a little bit differently. You know, we're all looking at the AHRI data, and obviously, February was, you know, quite strong. Are you suggesting that March, that we're gonna see numbers of March down less than February was up, and then that works then into, you know, April numbers being down? Because you said 30 days out. I'm not sure if I followed that.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Well, what I said is we limit pretty, you know, pre-buys to 30. It doesn't mean everybody pulls in 30 days. And so, what I mentioned in our scripted remarks and so forth, is when we look out at March, we see March starting to become more normalized. The pre-buy is in February, which everybody focused on. March will be, as a percentage of an increase year-over-year, will be going back down towards a normalized level. So again, a pre-buy is just a pull forward. It doesn't necessarily always mean that there's additional orders out there.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

How we're looking at this as we get into the quarter, as Chuck mentioned, some of it's already been shipped, and maybe a bit is still to be shipped out in Q2, but it's more of a, we're gonna go back to normalized volumes there. There's nothing to read that we see from perspective that seven percent is gonna stick, nor is it gonna be a negative as we go into the quarter, second quarter and the rest of the year. It's gonna be at that 9.2 flat million units a year. That's kind of where we're staying based on what we know today.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, and I'll just add that we've seen orders in April pretty strong on a relative basis, so we haven't seen a drop in that, Scott. So along with kind of managing, as Kevin said, the orders and then pushing some out and extending a bit of our lead times to manage the order rate, we've also seen decent order rates through April, so we feel pretty good about going into the second quarter.

[Scott Graham, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Got it. Thank you for that. I guess really my other question was a very simple one, housekeeping. The boiler business, could you tell us how that did in the quarter and what that backlog looks like?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, it was flat for the quarter. So if you recall last year, you know, we had a pretty decent first quarter in boilers, and then we really got a bit of a comp headwind on, you know, channel inventories coming down. We had worked down our backlogs quite a bit in 2022. So we saw some challenges in boilers last year, so we've got easier comps as we go forward. We feel good about the 8%-10% growth rate. You know, our third quarter is typically highest on boilers. And backlog is, you know, strong. It's strong. It's a bit stronger than it was last year. And relative to other years, we feel, you know, relatively strong going into the second quarter in both commercial and residential.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi. Your line is open.

[Andrew Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi]

Hey, good morning, everyone.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Good morning.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Hey, Andrew.

[Andrew Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi]

Can you give us more color into what you're seeing in Rest of World margins? Margin is usually, I think, seasonally weak in Q1. It was slightly weaker than I thought. Did you just have higher advertising spends or something like that? And then you did keep your Rest of World margin the same for the year, despite the slightly lower sales growth in China. So looks like you still feel good about that. Anything you're doing to make sure that margins, you know, stay up at those levels?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, sure, Andrew. I mean, first quarter is always a challenge for us in China on margins. It's usually our lowest margin quarter, and as you know, Rest of World is, you know, largely China. So it wasn't out of line with what we expected for the first quarter. We haven't changed our full year outlook. You're right, we did lower our top line guide a bit, but, you know, the team in China has done a great job of taking a look at SG&A, being more flexible, more variable on those costs, and, you know, we have confidence that the team, even with a little lower volumes, is gonna continue to manage the bottom line. So, yes, a little bit of headwind on the top line.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

First quarter is always a challenge, but we feel we still feel good about that range for the full year.

[Andrew Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi]

Great. And then, just on North American water treatment, you know, you did lower your forecast a little there. I think it was on the direct-to-consumer side that you said a little bit more weakness. Maybe just talk about visibility into sort of that end market. You know, it does tend to be a bit fragmented, how are inventories on the channel side, and, just more elaboration around visibility would be helpful.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I think it certainly is a fragmented market. We're in five different channels. So the visibility is not as crystal clear as we would like. But you look at it, the two things we highlighted was on the consumer demand side of it and just more average of pricing for our orders in our consumer, side of the business. Just a little bit lower. People being a bit more price cautious. And then, also highlighted the water softeners, and that just hasn't rebounded back from where we thought it was gonna be. I just think there's, you know, that's more of a discretionary item sometimes. People can delay it. So those are two things that we're seeing. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with the channels.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

It's just a matter of, you know, some of these discretionary spends, consumers are being a bit more cautious. We still feel really good about the business. I mean, again, it's gonna be up 8%-10%. We did make an acquisition that puts us in California, which we're really excited about. So there's a lot of good things going on within the North America water treatment business, and each channel's got its own little challenges, but also its positive sides.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Damian Karas with UBS. Your line is open.

[Damian Karas, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Hi, good morning, everyone.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Good morning, Damian.

[Damian Karas, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Appreciate all the color on the AHRI data and some of this monthly choppiness around distributor inventories. I was hoping maybe you could just give us an update on your perception of proactive replacement. Is that still around 30%, or have you seen any changes there versus where you, you know, were exiting 2023?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

No, you know, it's interesting. We watched that really closely because coming out, it's been elevated, and it's kind of normalized right now at that 30% level. We check it every quarter, and it's still holding up in that percentage. So, no change and with that, and of course, our merchant replacement always remains consistent. And we also like what we're seeing in the new construction site, particularly on single family housing. So, you know, overall, I think the consumer and kind of the components of how our units and volumes are made up are pretty consistent and have been that way for several months.

[Damian Karas, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Interesting. Good to hear. And then I have a follow-up question for you on North American tankless. Obviously exciting, you're gonna start shipping that product in the second quarter. I think you've been soliciting orders maybe since late last year. Any chance you can give us a sense on, you know, the level of orders that you've already been able to line up for that product? And how are you thinking about the potential, you know, sales impact for this year on that new product?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Well, one, we're really excited about the tankless and owning that technology and so forth. And yes, we do have pre-buy orders already in-house and so forth. And, you know, as we look out on our tankless, we've kind of modeled an additional kind of $15 million-$20 million of incremental growth throughout the year as we launch this new product and bring it to market. Again, that will come in phases. You know, the condensing premix is our high-end really premium product. That's what we're gonna be launching next month. But we also have two other product lines that will be phased in in the back half of the year.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

So excited about it, excited to own the technology and being able to go to market with what we believe is a very competitive and compelling product line, and we haven't had that for a number of years. So, that's kind of where we're at, and look forward to sharing more of that as we get into the rest of the year.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is open.

[Adam Farley, Associate Analyst at Stifel]

Good morning. This is Adam Farley on for Nathan.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Good morning.

[Adam Farley, Associate Analyst at Stifel]

I wanted to follow up. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on the commentary around kitchen products in China. I was wondering if you could provide any detail on the percentage of revenue these products account for, and maybe where you expect kitchen products in China to go over time.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, so this is Chuck. You know, kitchen products are still a very, very small part of our business in China. If you kind of look at the full year, it's, you know, it's around 5%, and I include in that range hoods, dishwashers, cooktops, and steam ovens. So, you know, you, you lump those all together, it's still a very small part of kind of our revenue in China. It's an important part, though, of our strategy and having products that are in and around the kitchen that we can bundle, link together through AI-LiNK, and give our distributors a more value-oriented package to sell to consumers. So a small part of our business, but fits very well into our strategy.

[Adam Farley, Associate Analyst at Stifel]

Are these products accretive to Rest of World segment margins?

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

You know, there's a little pressure on the Rest of World segment margins. You know, we're launching them, and we've mentioned in some of our prepared remarks that we've got some costs and promotions behind them. You know, we do appreciate the fact, though, that launching into them and being a little bit of a headwind to average margins, that they, you know, provide opportunities for us for top-line stability and growth as we bundle products and go to market that way.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Your line is open.

[David MacGregor, President and Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Yes, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the questions.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Hey, David.

[David MacGregor, President and Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Hey, good morning. I wanted to start off by asking you about the commercial business. And have you rolled out the two-step pricing model yet? And if so, can you talk about the level of acceptance that you're seeing and just the initial impact on the business?

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

I'm assuming two-step, you talk about our catalysts that we talked about during Investor Day?

[David MacGregor, President and Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Yes, exactly.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah. Oh, again, that's it. It's been rolled out. We've done a number of pilots. We continue to roll it out to various customers. So, you know, I think right now we're still in the early stages of it. The value proposition of it is outstanding. Being able to have a few models and be able to turn it into 25 different products immediately, so you're not, you know, one, you're not capturing that inventory that you're tying up capital, but more importantly, your availability goes up and your customers are going to get served much better. So that continues to roll out.

[Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO at A. O. Smith]

It's not gonna be a program for everyone, but our larger stocking commercial accounts, this is a real benefit and a real separation of us in the market on a value proposition. So very pleased with it. Customers seem to be very pleased with it as well, and we'll continue to you know, leverage that with the appropriate customer.

[David MacGregor, President and Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Right. This is still early. Okay, got that. And then I wanted to follow up and just ask you a little more on the steel pricing. I appreciate that a portion of this is indexed to, you know, what you're selling the product for. But thinking about the residual steel risk exposure, price risk exposure, how much variability is there still remaining this year in kind of your steel forecast? You talked about 2Q being up 20% versus 1Q, and then you gave some general commentary about the second half. But I'm just wondering how much variability or uncertainty remains in that outlook.

[Chuck Lauber, CFO at A. O. Smith]

Yeah, I mean, we've talked about, you know, kind of the lag that we see. So we've got visibility looking forward in kind of a 90- to 120-day time frame. So when you kind of look from April, we can see forward through, you know, that amount of time. So really, fourth quarter is the biggest risk or opportunity for changes in index in steel as we kind of look forward to the rest of the year. So we've got a decent amount of the year covered from visibility.

[Operator]

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Helen for any closing remarks.

[Helen Gurholt, VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis at A. O. Smith]

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Let me conclude by reminding you that our global A. O. Smith team delivered strong sales and earnings in the first quarter. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters to come. In addition, please mark your calendars to join our presentations at four conferences this quarter: Oppenheimer on May 6, KeyBanc on May 29, William Blair on June 4, and Wells Fargo on June 12. Thank you, and enjoy the rest of your day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

Participants

Executives

• Chuck Lauber, CFO
• Helen Gurholt, VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis
• Kevin Wheeler, Chairman and CEO

Analysts

• Adam Farley, Associate Analyst at Stifel
• Andrew Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi
• Damian Karas, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS
• David MacGregor, President and Senior Analyst at Longbow Research
• Jeff Hammond, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc
• Matt Summerville, Analyst at D.A. Davidson
• Mike Halloran, Associate Director of Research and Senior Analyst at Baird
• Scott Graham, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners
• Susan Maklari, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Analyst at Jefferies