Illinois Tool Works Q2 2024 Earnings Results & Report

Illinois Tool Works EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.54
• Consensus EPS: $2.45
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.09
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.41
• EPS Beat Rate: 8 of last 8 quarters

Illinois Tool Works Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $4.03 billion
• Expected Revenue: $4.08 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$52.36 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -1.20%

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) (NYSE: ITW) is a diversified industrial manufacturer that develops and produces specialized equipment, components, consumables and systems for customers in a range of industries. Founded in 1912 and headquartered in Glenview, Illinois, the company serves markets worldwide through a portfolio of highly engineered businesses.

ITW’s operations include food equipment, automotive components, welding products, test and measurement equipment, electronics materials, polymers and fluids, construction products, and specialty products. Its offerings support applications such as commercial food preparation, vehicle manufacturing and repair, industrial production, construction, electronics assembly and maintenance.

The company operates through a decentralized business model and emphasizes customer-focused product development, application engineering and specialized manufacturing. ITW sells its products internationally, serving customers across North America, Europe, Asia and other global markets.

Illinois Tool Works Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• During Q2, short-cycle demand moderated, causing organic revenue to be flat year-over-year and a ~$50 million revenue headwind versus Q1 exit rates.
• Record Q2 operating margin of 26.2% (+140 bps) drove operating income up 4.5% to $1.05 billion and GAAP EPS higher at $2.54.
• Full-year guidance was updated to flat organic revenue, margin guidance raised to 26.5%–27%, and EPS guidance narrowed and lowered to $10.30–$10.40.
• Free cash flow reached $571 million (75% conversion) with $375 million in share repurchases and ongoing inventory reduction efforts.
• Specialty Products delivered 7% organic growth and margins improved ~590 bps to 31.9%, driven by strength in its Aerospace equipment business.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW second quarter earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the star followed by the number one key again. For those participating in the Q&A, you will have the opportunity to ask one question and, if needed, one follow-up question. Thank you. Erin Linnihan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you, Audra. Good morning, and welcome to ITW's second quarter 2024 conference call. Today, I'm joined by our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy, and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen. During today's call, we will discuss ITW's second quarter financial results and provide an update on our outlook for full-year 2024. Slide two is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. We refer you to the company's 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release. Please turn to slide three, and it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy. Chris?

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Thank you, Erin, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in our press release this morning, during the second quarter, the short cycle demand environment continued to moderate across our portfolio. At the total company level, second quarter revenues came in approximately 1 percentage point or $50 million below what they would have been, had demand held at the level we were seeing exiting the first quarter. Second quarter organic revenue was down in 3 segments, with declines year-over-year in CapEx-related products such as Welding, Test & Measurement, and Construction. These declines were offset by revenue growth in 4 segments, resulting in overall flat organic growth year-over-year at the total company level, as compared to our end markets, which we believe were down in the low single digits.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

As usual, as the quarter progressed, the ITW team executed well on all the elements within our control, as evidenced by record second quarter operating margin, which improved by 100 basis points, 26.2%, supported by 100 basis points of benefit from enterprise initiatives. Operating income grew 4.5% to a second quarter record of $1.05 billion, and GAAP EPS came in at $2.54, up from $2.48 last year. As per our normal practice, we are adjusting our full-year guidance in line with demand levels in our businesses as they exist today. Current run rates exiting Q2, projected through the remainder of the year, results in about flat organic revenue for the full year.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

The moderating demand is partially offset by stronger margin performance, and we are raising our margin guidance to 26.5%-27%. Factoring in both of these elements, lower market demand and stronger margin performance, we are lowering the midpoint of our EPS guidance by 1% as we narrow the range to $10.30-$10.40. While the combination of moderating manufacturing CapEx demand and lower automotive build forecasts for the second half has us operating in a challenging near-term environment, we will continue to drive our usual high-quality execution on all the elements within our control, while remaining focused on managing and investing to maximize the company's growth and performance over the long term, as we build above-market organic growth fueled by Customer-Back Innovation into a core ITW strength.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

In this regard, we are very encouraged by the progress we are making on Customer-Back Innovation in each of our divisions. In concluding my remarks, I want to thank all of our ITW colleagues around the world for their exceptional efforts and for their dedication to serving our customers with excellence and driving continuous progress on our path to ITW's full potential. I will now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our second quarter performance in more detail, as well as our updated full-year guidance. Michael?

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. In Q2, revenue declined 1%, with organic revenue down 0.1%, essentially flat year-over-year, and a slight improvement from being down 0.6% in Q1. As Chris said, demand moderated sequentially as total company revenues grew 2% from the first quarter to the second quarter, a point below our historical run rate growth of 3%.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Faced with moderating demand, the ITW team, as usual, did a great job in terms of reading and reacting to the environment and delivered record margin and profitability performance in the second quarter, as evidenced by 4.5% operating income growth and operating margins of 26.2%, an improvement of 140 basis points, as enterprise initiatives were once again the largest margin and profitability driver, contributing 140 basis points this quarter, with more to come in the second half. GAAP EPS of $2.54 increased 2% or 5%, excluding a 2023 one-time tax item. Our free cash flow was $571 million, which was a 75% conversion of net income, slightly below our historical conversion in the 80% range-...

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

As we continue to focus on reducing our inventory months on hand to pre-pandemic levels without impacting customer service levels. We repurchased $375 million of our own shares during the quarter as planned, and the effective tax rate was 24.4%, compared to 21.4% in the prior year, which lowered EPS by $0.10. In addition, foreign currency translation was approximately a $0.05 headwind year-over-year. In summary, strong execution and Q2 results as the impact of a moderating short cycle demand environment was offset by strong margin and profitability performance. Please turn to slide four for a look at organic growth by geography. The 2% decline in North America was an improvement over the first quarter's 3% decline. Europe grew 1% and Asia Pacific grew 3%, with China up 5%.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Moving on to segment results. The Automotive OEM segment delivered flat organic growth in the second quarter against a tough comparison of +16% in the year ago quarter. North America was down 4%, Europe was down 2%, and China was up 7%. In the first half, automotive builds were flat, and our Automotive OEM segment grew 2% above market. For the full year, we continue to expect solid above-market growth with our typical penetration gains of 2%-3% and continued outgrowth in China. In our guidance, we have now factored in the most recent automotive build projections, which have declined to -2% for the full year. As you may recall, when we issued our initial guidance in February, automotive builds were expected to be flat for the year.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

On a positive note, the segment delivered strong operating margin performance of 19.4%, a 260 basis points improvement, as we continue to work towards our goal of achieving operating margins in the low-to-mid 20s by 2026. Turn to slide five. Food Equipment organic revenue grew 2.5% against a comparison of +7% in the second quarter of last year. Equipment grew 1% and service grew 5% against a comparison of +16% last year. By region, North America increased 2%, with service up 3%. Organic growth in the institutional market was up mid-single digits, and the retail market was up high single digits. International revenue was up 3.5%, led by Europe.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

As we talked about last quarter, the current margin performance reflects the fact that we're making focused capacity investments in the first half of 2024 to support and accelerate continued above-market organic growth in our very attractive service business. Looking forward, we expect margins to continue to improve sequentially as we go through the year. Turning to Test & Measurement and Electronics. Organic revenue was down 3%, with continued softness in semiconductor, electronics, and CapEx-sensitive end markets. Both Test & Measurement and Electronics were down 3% in the quarter. Moving on to slide six. Welding was down 5% in Q2, as equipment declined 5% and consumables were down 3%. By region, North America declined 6%, with industrial sales down 7%, and the commercial side down 6%. International grew 3%, with some strength in Europe.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Operating margin was 32.9%, with a solid contribution from enterprise initiatives. Organic revenue in Polymers & Fluids increased 3%, led by Polymers up 10%, and Fluids was up 4%. Automotive aftermarket was down 2% in the quarter. On a geographic basis, North America declined 4% and international grew 13%. Operating margin of 28.2% improved more than 200 basis points. Turn to slide seven. Demand trends in Construction Products continue to be challenging on a global basis, as organic revenue declined 4% in Q2, in a market that we believe is down in the mid to high single digits. North America was down 2%, as the residential and renovation business was down 2%, and commercial was down 9%.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

International markets remained soft, as Europe was down 7% and Australia and New Zealand was down 4%. Finally, Specialty Products had a strong quarter, with organic revenue growth of 7% due to significant strength in our aerospace equipment division, as well as pockets of increased demand across our portfolio. As a result, international was up 10% and North America was up 5%. As previously discussed, results can be a bit choppy as we continue to work to reposition the specialty segment for consistent above-market organic growth, including strategic portfolio work and more significant product line simplification, which included 230 basis points in Q2. Operating margin improved 590 basis points to 31.9%, with strong contributions from enterprise initiatives and operating leverage.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

With that, let's move to slide eight for an update on our full-year 2024 guidance. Despite a challenging first half macro demand environment, the ITW team found a way to deliver solid operational and financial results. Excluding one-time items, we grew operating income 4% in the first half, as margins improved by 130 basis points to 25.8%, with 140 basis points from enterprise initiatives. GAAP EPS was up 10%, up 5% excluding one-time items. Looking ahead to the second half in our updated guidance, we do not expect the short cycle demand environment to improve. Per usual process, we are adjusting our full-year guidance in line with conditions on the ground as they exist today.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Current run rates exiting Q2, adjusted for typical seasonality and the most recent automotive build forecast projected through the remainder of the year, would result in approximately flat organic growth for the year. In markets that we believe are down in the low single digits. This compares to a prior organic growth guidance of 1%-3% and impacts EPS by approximately $0.25. The lower top line guidance is partially offset by stronger margin and profitability performance, which is expected to continue into the second half, including a significant contribution of more than 100 basis points from enterprise initiatives. As a result, we raised margin guidance to 26.5%-27%, as we continue to make solid progress towards our goal of 30% operating margin by 2030. The higher margins impact EPS favorably by about $0.10.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

The net of these two factors, as you saw this morning, is that we lowered the top end of the range of our full-year GAAP EPS guidance to a new range of $10.30-$10.40, which is a reduction of $0.15 or 1% at the midpoint from $10.50-$10.35, with six months to go in the year. To wrap things up, we delivered a solid Q2 and first half in a challenging demand environment, and we've updated our full-year guidance per our usual process to reflect current levels of demand. Given the strength of our competitive advantages, the resilience of the ITW business model, and our diversified high-quality portfolio, we're well positioned for whatever economic conditions emerge through the second half of the year. With that, Erin, I'll turn it back to you.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you. Audra, will you please open the line for questions?

[Operator]

Thank you. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, to ask a question, press star and the number one on your telephone pad. We'll go first to Andy Kaplowitz at Citigroup.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citigroup]

Hey, good morning, everyone.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Good morning.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Good morning, Andy.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citigroup]

Chris and Michael, you continue to have unusually strong results in Specialty Products in Q2, after, I think you said in Q1 that it was a bit unusual, and Q2 would normalize. I know you mentioned aerospace. I don't think I've heard that particular business mentioned before. So could you give us more color on what's going on there, and what is the probability that segment could continue to outperform?

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Yeah. So, Andy, we've had a—as you've outlined, a very solid half one here in Specialty. There's a few different things going on. I think strength in aerospace has been a feature, you know, throughout the first half. There's some other pockets of strong demand elsewhere. Obviously, we had favorable comps in Specialty, and we've also benefited from the timing of some orders, particularly in Q1, for some of our European equipment businesses. This is a segment that, you know, we've got some strategic portfolio repositioning going on, a bit more than the normal kind of PLS that you'd see, you know, more than maintenance, much more strategic. It's gonna be a bit of a drag on revenue, you know, for the full year, we would say.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

We probably expect Specialty to be up, you know, just above flat, maybe, flat to low single digits for the full year. But the important thing here is that we're the strong work that we are doing to really make this segment a 4% grower in the long term. And based on the progress that we've seen this year, we certainly believe we can do that.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citigroup]

Very helpful. Chris and Michael, you mentioned that demand continues to moderate in Q2, but could you give us a little more color regarding the cadence of the demand you saw? Has demand stabilized at lower levels across your short cycle businesses, or would you say it's still getting worse? With the understanding that you're forecasting the exit rate of Q2, you do have much easier comps in the second half. Just at the enterprise level, are you baking in any conservatism, or is it really just on run rates?

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Well, so I think in terms of the cadence, I think we saw, as we were going through the quarter, the demand continued to, you know, moderate as the quarter progressed. And, you know, by segment, you know, definitely Auto as auto builds came down. The CapEx businesses that Chris mentioned, Test & Measurement and Welding, you know, were maybe a little bit more impacted than some of the other businesses. You know, I think on a positive note, I just might add that, you know, June also had really strong margin performance. So I think we got some good margin momentum heading into the second half.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

In terms of the back half of the year, as we said, per our typical process, this is based on, you know, current levels of demand, that we're seeing in these businesses, adjusted for seasonality. We do have, as you recall, some more favorable comparisons here, in the second half of the year. If you look at last year, we were up, you know, 4% in the first half of 2023, and we're flat in the second half of 2023. So, the comparisons definitely get easier. We also have the benefit of, two additional, shipping days, in the back half, one in Q3 and one in Q4.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

And then the last thing I would add is we've updated the automotive build forecast as we saw a decline there from previously about flat for the year to down 2%. And we expect to outgrow that per our typical, you know, 2%-3%, and we continue to outgrow by a little bit more than that in China, as we've talked about previously. So those are all the elements that kind of went into the top line guidance.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

I might just add, if you look at the, you know, reduction, you know, 1%-3% organic now to about flat, and you look at kind of the flow-through on that, that's about a 20% incremental, just given how strong the margin performance is and how flexible our cost structure is so that we can, you know, continue to kind of read and react to whatever demand environment we're dealing with in the, in the second half.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citigroup]

Appreciate all the color.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Sure.

[Operator]

We'll move next to Scott Davis at Melius Research.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Morning.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Morning.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

... Yes, I, I know I probably asked this in prior quarters, but M&A is, I assume no change in strategy there, more bolt-ons or, you know, we have heard of, of some larger assets that are going to be going to come available. Would, would you guys, be comfortable casting a wider net there?

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Yeah. So, Scott, I think our posture on M&A hasn't changed much. I mean, as we shared at our Investor Day, we have a pretty disciplined portfolio management strategy, and we're certainly staying consistent to that. You know, from our standpoint, we have a pretty clear and well-defined view of what fits our strategy and our financial criteria. So, you know, for us, it's a case of just finding the right opportunities, very much focused on high-quality acquisitions that can extend our long-term growth potential, growing at a minimum of 4%+ at high quality. You know, we've been able to, you know, to leverage the business model to improve margins. So, we review opportunities certainly on an ongoing basis.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

We're pretty selective, given what we believe to be pretty compelling organic growth potential that we have in our core businesses. And if I go back to the MTS acquisition from a couple of years ago, that was certainly an acquisition that ticked all the boxes, and only a couple of years in here and already turning out to be a great ITW business. So to the extent that we can find acquisitions like that, then, you know, we'd certainly be very active.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

Okay. Fair enough, Chris. And then, I was just looking back at your investor deck, and your growth, your long-term growth targets, the 4%-7%. At 2-3 percentage points of that were coming from Customer-Back Innovation, and you did mention that in your prepared remarks. But, are you still confident that you can drive that kind of growth from Customer-Back Innovation? It seems like a lot to me, but, but you guys would have a better feel for that.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Yeah, I would say, Scott, that we're even more confident now than we were at Investor Day. Our, our confidence has certainly continued to grow, and we're very encouraged by, by what we're seeing in our businesses. It's one of the reasons that we believe that we're outperforming our end markets, you know, right now. And, and our, our, our view on Customer-Back Innovation is that we're gonna lean into Customer-Back Innovation in the same way with a similar approach that we utilized in really reinvigorating 80/20 Front-to-Back, in, in the last phase of our enterprise strategy, in terms of our intention around it, in terms of the, the, the rigor and capability build that's going on all over this company right now.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

and in doing so, increase our contribution from what was approximately 1% in 2019 to north of 2% today, and what will be north of 3% in the not too distant future. So everything we see on Customer-Back and the work we're doing in our divisions gives us an even stronger sense of confidence that this is gonna be a, you know, really impactful in terms of our ability to grow 4%+ in the long term.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

Okay. Thank you, Chris. I'll pass it on. Appreciate it.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Sure, Scott. Thank you.

[Operator]

Next, we'll move to Tami Zakaria at JPMorgan.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Good morning.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Morning. So my first question is, North America saw a negative, I think you said 2% organic growth, while other regions are positive. Are you still seeing destocking headwinds in North America or any other region, or is the market softening now more a function of just demand rather than destocking?

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Yeah, I think it's more the latter, Tami, that, you know, demand is a function of where we are in the economic cycle. And so, destocking, which was a headwind, you know, all of last year, is no longer a significant factor, at this point. I think if you look at just North America, you know, down 2% was really driven by Welding, you know, down 6%, and then the Auto, Polymers and Fluids down 4%, and then some positive momentum, in Food Equipment up 2%, and Specialty up 5%. But again, that's really more a reflection of kind of where we're at in the cycle, versus anything going on from a destocking standpoint.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a bit clarity on the new operating margin guide. So operating margin expected up about 165 basis points on flattish organic growth. Can you help me understand that 165 basis points? How much of that is enterprise initiative versus the 140 you saw in the first half? And then is there any price, cost, or volume or anything else that's adding to that 165 basis points year-over-year?

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Yeah, I, I think, not a lot of volume leverage, obviously, as we're guiding to, about flat, growth for the year. The biggest driver continues to be the enterprise initiatives. You know, we—as you said, we got 140 basis points in the first half. The roll-up for the second half looks really good. As we said today, more than 100 basis points, and so somewhere, I would say between 100 and 140 is maybe a reasonable estimate. And then price costs, you know, a modest contribution. We're kind of back to a normal price cost environment, and so that's not a significant driver.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Really, the big driver here, as I think you pointed out, are the, the Enterprise initiatives that, independent of volume, you know, continue to contribute in a meaningful way, which is a great position to be in, you know, in a, given where we are in the cycle, in a pretty challenging and uncertain environment. And, without giving too much away, as we kind of look into the future beyond this year, we'd expect another solid contribution, in 2025 and beyond.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Understood. Thank you.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Sure.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Joe Ritchie at Goldman Sachs.

[Joe Ritchie, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, good morning, everybody.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Morning, Joe.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Morning.

[Joe Ritchie, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs]

... Can we, can we go back to Specialty for a second? You guys talked about the strategic positioning efforts there, and when I, when I think about that business, it's, it's a, it's a hodgepodge of a bunch of different businesses that, seemingly don't have a lot to do with each other. And so I'm just trying to understand, like, what's the, what's the kind of like, overall strategy with the, with the, with the businesses within Specialty, and then, and then what are you, what are you guys really doing to kinda drive this margin expansion sustainably higher over the long term?

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Yeah. So Joseph, Specialty is indeed, as you said, you know, a collection of high quality, high margin, you know, businesses. There is a concentration around consumer packaging, both on the equipment side, on the consumable side. There's also a bit of a concentration around appliance components. And then there's a collection of smaller businesses, one of which is primarily lined up alongside aerospace that are very attractive, and certainly capable of growth. So we're going through, you know, a strategic repositioning of some of those businesses in terms of heavier leaning on PLS. You know, we haven't seen much growth in Specialty over the last few years, as you know, so that's what caused us to relook at the portfolio.

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

But we feel very good about the progress we're making in terms of there's a lot of highly differentiated product lines in that segment. And, you know, this repositioning will put us in a position where we accentuate the growth of those, we resource those, and we maybe de-resource some other ones that are not in a position to grow. But overall, I would say it's a nice portfolio of businesses with a strong differentiation lineage running through it. And as I say, we are well positioned to grow this at 4%+ in the long term.

[Joe Ritchie, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs]

Okay, great, Chris. And then maybe just a follow-up to that is, you know, sometimes, you know, companies will go through this, you know, addition by subtraction exercise, and it sounds like you guys are in the process of improving the margins. The margins are already good, but it also kind of seems like there's an opportunity then for you guys to potentially divest some of those assets going forward, whether it's in this Specialty business or beyond in the rest of your portfolio. How are you guys thinking about that equation, and the divestiture side?

[Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW]

Yes. So we look at our portfolio on an ongoing basis. You know, we believe we've got a very high-quality portfolio, and if the opportunity comes to divest, we would certainly do that. I would say that as we think about portfolio management today, it's more likely to be in the realm of product line pruning as opposed to divestitures. Now, that could change, but as we look at it today, it's much more along the lines of pruning within businesses as opposed to divestiture of businesses, I would say.

[Joe Ritchie, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs]

Okay, thank you.

[Operator]

We'll move next to Julian Mitchell at Barclays.

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

Hi, good morning. Maybe just-

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Good morning

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

... a question around the free cash flow conversions, because I think it's sort of 67% in the first half. The year's guide at 100%+. Doesn't seem like there should be a lot of working cap liquidation in the second half because the quarterly revenue run rate is kind of stable at $4 billion. So maybe just flesh out the confidence in the cash conversion step up, please.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Yeah, sure, Julian. I mean, I think you're right. We are slightly below our typical conversion range here for the first half. I think on the last call, we talked about our focus at the divisional level on reducing our inventory months on hand from, you know, we're right around 3.1 right now, as compared to pre-COVID, 2.5 or even a little bit lower than that in some of our segments. So, you know, we've made some progress. You know, inventory is down double digits on a year-over-year basis. But I would agree with you that we can definitely do better.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

We fully expect to take advantage of this opportunity in the second half to reduce inventory levels and generate above average free cash flow, while as I said, maintaining our typical ITW caliber customer service level. So big focus on this in the second half, and just given our track record around kind of do what we say, execution, we feel like we're really well positioned to generate above average free cash flow in the second half.

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

That's helpful. Thank you. And then just my second question would be around the sort of. It looks like, you know, the second half run rate on the total company sales and margins, very similar to Q2, as you, you know, as you normally guide, with sort of 26% margin, $4 billion revenue a quarter. You mentioned, Michael, the days sales effect in Q3, Q4, but just wondered, anything else in terms of seasonality for total company you'd remind us of for the third versus the fourth quarter? And any big moving parts on the segment margins as we step into the back half? I think Specialty, you've talked about Polymer and Fluid. I'm also curious about the margin outlook there, please.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Yeah. Yeah, I think, all good questions, Julian. I mean, Q3 looks a lot like, Q2, I would say. We typically see, a modest, increase, in revenues from Q3 to Q4, and, with emphasis on modest. And we also see typically a modest improvement in operating margins as we go, through the year, you know, in from Q2 to Q3 and, and then into, Q4. And so there's really nothing unusual going on there. We do, as you pointed out, we, we do benefit from, having a couple of extra days here in the second half, and then, like I said, more favorable comparisons. You know, the other thing that, would not be in the run rates is what Chris talked about earlier, which is this increased contribution from-...

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

New products coming in at higher margins. But we feel like we've really maybe taken a not just an approach that's consistent with kind of how we've done it historically in terms of guidance, but a fairly conservative approach going into the second half. Certainly, things can change quickly. You know, things can improve, but they can also deteriorate. And hopefully, you know, kind of parsing out for you the impact here in Q2, in terms of what a point of revenue growth sequentially means or decline means, you know, the $50 million at the decremental that we talked about, I think gives you a way to kind of further risk-adjust your numbers. Or, if you are more optimistic, you can certainly make those adjustments as well.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

That's kind of how we, we think about the guidance here for the, for the second half.

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

Great. Thank you.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

We'll take our final question from Walt Liptak at Seaport Research.

[Walt Liptak, Industry Analyst at Seaport Research]

Okay. Thanks, Chris and Mike. Wanted to ask a follow-up on the guidance and just a comment that you made on the first question about. It sounds like June might have gotten a little bit better for some of the capital goods businesses, like Welding or maybe some others. I wonder if you can talk about that some of that, you know, macro industrial weakness, you know, start to get better.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Well, yeah, I think, well, June was, you know, things continued to moderate, particularly, auto builds were softer in June. And then on the CapEx side, Welding, I think consistent with commentary you may have heard from some of our peers, in the welding space. And then Test & Measurement, I think, while we have not seen, a pickup in semiconductor or, electronics or CapEx, I would say semi also has not gotten worse. So it's kind of bumping along. And I would just add that we remain, like, really well positioned for the inevitable recovery, down the road.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

And I think if you look at, you know, some of the segments with positive organic growth here in Q2, so you look at Specialty, you look at Polymers and Fluids, the operating leverage that we generate a fairly modest organic growth is pretty remarkable. So we're really well positioned for that. We continue to invest, a lot of focus on new products, but we've not seen a pickup in those markets yet. But again, really well positioned for the inevitable recovery down the road here, whenever that may happen.

[Walt Liptak, Industry Analyst at Seaport Research]

Okay. Yeah, totally agree with that. And one of the segments that's growing, Food Equipment, you guys sounded kind of upbeat about kind of the retail chain despite some of the bankruptcies that have been going on. I wonder if you can talk about maybe in a little bit more detail how that retail part of the business-

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I mean, I think the retail growth, similar to in the first quarter, I think up 9% here in the second quarter, and it's all driven by new products. So, this is all weigh and wrap equipment, and new product rollouts. And our—I'd say, our customer base is not part of the population that you may be alluding to that's having trouble financially. I mean, these are all the big, you know, grocery store retailers, chains, chains that you would expect. And so we're not seeing any impact there from them being in trouble financially. Quite the contrary.

[Walt Liptak, Industry Analyst at Seaport Research]

Right. Okay, great. Okay. Congratulations for that. Thanks.

[Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO at ITW]

All right. Thank you.

[Operator]

That concludes the question and answer session. Thank you for participating in today's conference call. All lines may disconnect at this time.

Participants

Executives

• Michael Larsen, SVP and CFO

Analysts

• Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citigroup
• Chris O'Herlihy, President and CEO at ITW
• Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW
• Joe Ritchie, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs
• Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
• Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research
• Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan
• Walt Liptak, Industry Analyst at Seaport Research