ASML Q3 2025 Pre Recorded Earnings Call Transcript

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October 15, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q3 Results: Net sales of €7.5 billion, a 51.6% gross margin, €2.1 billion net income and CHF 5.4 billion in bookings, all within guidance.
  • Positive Sentiment: Q4 & FY25 Guidance: Q4 revenue is forecast at €9.2–9.8 billion and full-year sales at ~€32.5 billion, with gross margin around 52%.
  • Negative Sentiment: China Demand Outlook: Expects significantly lower demand from Chinese customers in 2026, partially offset by a shift toward UV systems, though 2026 sales should not fall below 2025 levels.
  • Positive Sentiment: Mistral AI Partnership: Lead investor in Series C with ~11% stake and strategic collaboration to embed advanced AI for enhanced software precision, speed and product development.
  • Positive Sentiment: Technology Roadmap & Packaging: Reported strong EUV and NA progress, shipped first XT260 advanced packaging scanner and positioned 3D integration as a key future growth driver.
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Earnings Conference Call
ASML Q3 2025 Pre Recorded
00:00 / 00:00

There are 2 speakers on the call.

Speaker 1

Hello and welcome to ASML's Q3 2025 results video with Christophe Fouquet and Roger Dassen. Roger, if I can start with you, can I ask you to give us a summary of Q3 2025 results?

Operator

Sure. Net sales came in at €7.5 billion. That included, by the way, the recognition of one high-end system. Also included in there, €2 billion for install base revenue. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 51.6%. All of that, I would say, within guidance. Net income for the quarter came in at €2.1 billion. We recorded net bookings for the quarter of €5.4 billion, included in there, €3.6 billion for EUV.

Speaker 1

Roger, can I ask you to give us a guidance on Q4 2025 as well as the full year for 2025?

Operator

Sure. For the quarter, we're looking at revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion. It's a big quarter, a lot bigger than last quarter. Actually, that's as planned and also as we communicated before. It's also what we saw in 2024. We also had a very big Q4 there. Included in that number would be an install base revenue of approximately €2.1 billion. The gross margin for the quarter is somewhere between 51% and 53%. If you then take that to the full year, we would be looking at a full year around €32.5 billion in terms of net sales. The gross margin, we say, around 52%. As a matter of fact, if you take the midpoint of the guidance for the quarter, you get a little bit above the 52% for the full year.

Speaker 1

Christophe, if I could ask you to give us your view on how you're seeing the market at the moment.

Operator

Yeah, I think we have seen a flow of positive news in the last few months that have helped to reduce some of the uncertainties we discussed last quarter. First, we continue to see strong news about commitment to AI, which means we think investment in advanced logic and DRAM. Second, and it's very important for us, it looks like AI is going to benefit a larger part of our customer base. Third, we continue to make very good progress with our lithography intensity, especially with EUV that continue to be adopted with DRAM and advanced logic customers. On the other hand, when we look at China, we believe that the demand of our Chinese customers is going to be significantly lower in 2026 than it has been in 2024 and 2025, where we had very strong business there.

Speaker 1

What does that mean then for ASML in 2026?

Operator

We believe that the impact of these dynamics will only be effective partially in 2026. Still, for 2026, we expect our net sales to not be below 2025. If we look at our product mix, the dynamics are going to favor EUV, which we believe will increase, while the dynamic in China will most probably lower the business in DUV. We will provide more details about 2026 in our January call.

Speaker 1

Turning to technology, Roger, can I ask you to give us your thoughts on the recent announcement that we had in terms of the collaboration with ASML and Mistral AI?

Operator

Yeah, indeed. We entered into a partnership with Mistral AI. I think Mistral is really recognized on a number of fronts. I think they're recognized for their business-to-business approach. They're also recognized for the quality of their large language model, particularly when it comes to software coding and software coding development. They're recognized for that. That's the reason why we entered into the partnership with them. Many people look at ASML, look at their products, and really look at hardware. I think increasingly, people appreciate the very significant software content that is within those systems. I think people really understand that if you get to the level of precision and the level of speed that we have in our scanners, but also quite frankly what we need in metrology and inspection, it's pretty clear that the software contingent therein becomes increasingly important.

Operator

That's the reason why this is very strategic to us, why it's very strategic to improving the performance, improving the precision, and the speed of our tools as we bring them to our customers. Therefore, this collaboration is truly a strategic choice for us. I would also say that on top of the significance that it has for our products, AI is also a great way to improve the speed of our product development, to improve the speed of our time to market of any product development to our customers. That's another big area that we're collaborating with Mistral on. All in all, we believe a very strategic partnership. We also underscore that strategic partnership, as you know, we were the lead investor for their Series C funding round. By being the lead investor, we took approximately an 11% share in Mistral.

Operator

We also have a seat on their strategic committee. We truly believe that by doing this, we also get closer and closer to the AI world, which we believe is so pivotal to what we do at ASML.

Speaker 1

Staying on technology, Christophe, can you share then maybe some of the highlights over the last quarter in terms of our roadmap?

Operator

Yeah, I think we continue to see a very strong execution of our technology roadmap. I'll start with EUV. We had some very good papers presented at SPIE Semicon conferences, stressing the progress we are making, driving down the cost of technology for the most advanced nodes of our customer. On High NA, we shared the fact that at our customer, more than 300,000 wafers were now run. Some of our customers also reported the fact that the maturity of High NA today is quite ahead of what the maturity of Low NA was at a certain period of time. This was very positive. I think one important news also came from SK Hynix, who announced the start of the installation of their first High NA system (model 5200) in their production fab, positioning this tool basically as one of the key enablers for the future of DRAM.

Operator

On top of that, I think we're also very happy to report that we have shipped our first advanced packaging product. We have said in the past that we'll be supporting our customer with 3D integration. We have shipped the XT260 advanced packaging scanner, which is a high productivity scanner that will support advanced packaging and provide up to 4x productivity compared to the existing product.

Speaker 1

You're mentioning then 3D integration. What's some of the rationale and maybe some of the opportunities you see for ASML in this space?

Operator

I think 3D integration, of course, is the other way to drive Moore's Law. When it comes to 2D, we have our lithography roadmap. When it comes to 3D integration, I think we mentioned in Capital Markets Day that we would start helping our customer in this field. Our customers have told us that there is a need for innovation in 3D integration because their requirement will become more and more stringent. When we look at those requirements, we also see that a lot of the technology we have developed for holistic lithography can be transferred to 3D integration. This is why we are looking at several opportunities. The XT260 advanced packaging scanner is the first product. There will be more. Because of innovation, we are capable again to bring technology that can really make a difference.

Operator

If we look at next year, we see many customers that have shown interest in this tool, proving again, I would say, the future value of our technology there.

Speaker 1

As a final question, can I ask you to remind us of maybe the long-term opportunities for ASML and a little bit the market you see there?

Operator

As we mentioned in Capital Markets Day, we said that most probably AI will drive more advanced applications in semiconductors, so advanced DRAM, advanced logic. I think this is happening and this is driving more advanced lithography, higher lithography intensity. We expect that to continue. As we just discussed, we see that 3D integration will become a new opportunity, which we are going to pursue. As Roger explained very nicely, we also see that AI could create a lot of value in our product moving forward. We continue to see a very strong opportunity on our technology roadmap. Finally, to close on the number, as mentioned in Capital Markets Day, we expect 2030 to see an opportunity for revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, and a gross margin between 56% and 60%.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you very much. Thank you both, Christophe and Roger.

Operator

Thank you.

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