Cogeco Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Cogeco EPS Results

• Actual EPS: C$1.71
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Cogeco Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $731.37 million
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Cogeco Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 10/29/2025
• Time: N/A
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, October 30, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 8:00AM ET

Cogeco (TSE:CGO) Inc is a telecommunications company. The company has two reportable operating segments, namely Canadian broadband services and American broadband services. The Canadian and American broadband services segments provide a wide range of Internet, video, and telephony services primarily to residential customers, as well as business services across their coverage areas. The Canadian broadband services activities are carried out by Cogeco Connexion in the provinces of Quebec and Ontario and the American broadband services activities are carried out by Atlantic Broadband in 12 states.

Cogeco Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Year‑one of the three‑year transformation delivered tangible results with a 110 basis point improvement in Adjusted EBITDA margin and a CAD 38 million year‑over‑year increase in free cash flow (constant currency), supported by network upgrades (including Ookla improvements) and ~35,000 U.S. cable doors upgraded to fiber plus ~50,000 new homes passed across North America.
• Positive Sentiment: Canadian operations showed strong momentum — the company reported its best internet customer growth in 13 years (17,000 net adds in Q4), 10,800 homes passed in the quarter, and an ahead‑of‑plan wireless launch with early sales enabling a pullback in introductory promotions and expected bundling/retention benefits.
• Negative Sentiment: U.S. segment remains a drag: Breezeline revenue fell ~9.2% (constant currency) and Adjusted EBITDA declined ~7.9% due to ARPU pressure and cumulative customer losses, although subscriber trends are reportedly improving and Ohio achieved first net subscriber growth since acquisition.
• Neutral Sentiment: Fiscal 2026 guidance: consolidated revenue expected down 1%–3% and Adjusted EBITDA down 0%–2%, with CapEx of CAD 560–600 million and free cash flow (excluding network expansions) targeted to grow 0%–10%; the company also noted a ~CAD 20 million Canadian EBITDA impact from reclassifying mobility costs and IT expenses (cash‑neutral at consolidated level).

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to Cogeco Inc. and Cogeco Communications Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Patrice Ouimet, Chief Financial Officer of Cogeco Inc. and Cogeco Communications Inc. Please go ahead, Mr. Ouimet.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Thank you, Operator. So good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter conference call. So, as usual, before we begin the call, I'd like to remind listeners that today's discussion will include estimates and other forward-looking information. We ask that you review the cautionary language in the press releases and annual report issued yesterday regarding the various risks, assumptions, and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. So, with that, I'll pass the line to Fred Perron for opening remarks.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Thank you, Patrice. Good morning, everyone. For Cogeco Communications, the fourth quarter marked the end of year one of our three-year transformation program focused on synergies, digital analytics, network expansion, and wireless, and we're pleased to report that we're on track. Year one was, pardon, mainly focused on OpEx and CapEx synergies, and we delivered on those targets, as you can see by our 110 basis points year-on-year improvement in Adjusted EBITDA margin and our CAD 38 million year-on-year increase in free cash flow in constant currency. It's worth mentioning that the CapEx efficiency enabling our growth in free cash flow comes mainly from maintenance synergies, as we're continuing to make important investments in growing and enhancing our networks. A recent report by Ookla, for example, noted a significant increase in our Canadian upload speeds as a result of our ongoing network upgrade initiative.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

And in the U.S., we've upgraded over 35,000 of our cable doors to fiber during the fiscal year, in addition to adding nearly 50,000 new homes passed across our North American footprint. Years two and three of our transformation will now add more emphasis on our top-line performance, as per our original plan. This will include additional investments in growing previously underdeveloped sales and marketing channels in the U.S. in the context of the evolving competitive environment, as well as scaling wireless in Canada. When we met last quarter, we said that we were expecting strong, continued Canadian customer growth combined with some improvements in our U.S. subscriber metrics, and we're pleased to be delivering on that expectation. We just had our best Canadian internet customer growth in 13 years. This growth was driven mostly by market share gains in our legacy footprint on our own network.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

The completion of new rural expansion programs in Ontario has yet to accelerate through fiscal 26 and 27, providing a new additional lever for us in the future. We've seen a reduction in competitor promotional activity in the quarter, which has more than offset some minor noise around FWA and wholesale, including our own deployment as a reseller under the Cogeco brand across Quebec. So it's fair to say that, on balance, our Canadian competitive environment is evolving in a constructive manner at present time. Our launch of a Canadian wireless service is going ahead of plan, and October marked the deployment of this new service across most of our wireline operating footprint. Our positive early sales results on wireless have already enabled us to start pulling back on some of our initial introductory offers.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

On the U.S. side, our year-on-year financials were impacted by ARPU pressures, the cumulative impact of customer losses in the prior quarters, a difficult comparative period last year, and a smaller rate increase this year than in the previous year. This resulted in a year-on-year decline in Adjusted EBITDA, which was in line with what we had indicated to you last quarter. That being said, our additional sales and marketing activities are working. Our subscriber trends are now improving, and we're delivering on our long-stated goal of growing the Ohio customer base during the quarter. In fact, it's the first time since we acquired the Ohio business four years ago that we achieve customer growth in that state. We expect continued improvements in our U.S. subscriber metrics over the coming quarters. On October 8, we launched a completely revamped pricing strategy for the U.S.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

This new approach gives more value, predictability, and transparency to our customers, including full price protection for the first two years. This is just one of many tactics that we're deploying to be more aggressive and more innovative in our U.S. go-to-market. Today, we're also publishing our consolidated guidance for the new fiscal year for CCA and CGO more broadly, which offers a continued growth in free cash flow in constant currency despite competition-driven top-line pressures. Our Adjusted EBITDA guidance of 0% to -2% year-on-year reflects additional investments in scaling previously underdeveloped sales and marketing channels in the U.S. and growing our Canadian wireless business, as previously explained. We believe these investments present attractive upside for us, and are confident that investors will get disproportionate returns from them over time.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

We're still planning to grow our free cash flow to CAD 600 million next year in fiscal 2027, which is a good base for further dividend growth, as we're announcing today, as well as further deleveraging. Finally, turning over to Cogeco Media. While competitive dynamics in the radio advertising market remain, Q4 revenue increased year-on-year, lifted by strength in our digital advertising solutions and continued listener engagement. On that, I'll turn it over to Patrice for more details on our results and guidance. Patrice.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Thank you, Fred. So, in Canada, Cogeco Connexion's revenue declined by 1.5% in the fourth quarter, mainly due to lower revenue per customer from fewer video and wireline phone service subscribers, partly offset by growth in our internet subscriber base, which added 17,000 new customers during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined by 1.4% in constant currency due to the lower revenue being partially offset by lower operating expenses resulting from our cost reduction initiatives and operating efficiencies. We added 10,800 homes passed during the quarter, mainly through fiber-to-the-home under our network expansion program, including those related to the Ontario subsidized program. In the U.S., Breezeline's revenue declined by 9.2% in constant currency due to the cumulative decline in the subscriber base over the prior year, a smaller rate increase versus the prior year, along with a competitive pricing environment.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

The 6,300 decline in internet subscribers was an improvement over the previous quarter, while internet subscriber additions in Ohio recorded their first-ever positive growth of 1,300 new subscribers. Adjusted EBITDA declined by 7.9% in constant currency due to lower revenue, offset in part by lower operating expenses driven by cost reduction initiatives and operating efficiencies. Note that last year's comparative Q4 period was the highest EBITDA level of all quarters for that year, largely due to the reorganization of our operating entities. Now, turning to our consolidated numbers for Cogeco Communications. At the consolidated level, revenue in constant currency declined by 5.3%, and Adjusted EBITDA declined by 3.3%. This result is mainly due to the revenue pressure in the U.S., partially offset by strong execution on operating efficiencies, as well as customer growth in Canada.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Diluted earnings per share declined by 6.2% in reported currency, mainly due to lower EBITDA and higher financial and restructuring costs. Capital intensity was up at 21.8% versus 20.4% last year. Free cash flow in constant currency decreased by 27.4% in the quarter, but was up by 7.9% for the full year. Our net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio was 3.1 turn at the end of the quarter, unchanged from the level reported in Q3. We have increased our dividend by 7%, having declared a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.987 per share, and as Fred mentioned, with anticipated strong free cash flow in fiscal 26 and 27, we expect to continue to increase dividends meaningfully in the future. At Cogeco Inc., our revenue in constant currency decreased by 5%, and Adjusted EBITDA declined by 3.9%, with growth in radio partially offsetting revenue declines at Cogeco Communications.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Media operations revenue increased by 8.5%, driven by growth in digital advertising revenue. We have also increased the dividend at Cogeco Inc. by 7%, in lockstep with that at Cogeco Communications. Let's now discuss our fiscal 26 guidance, which we are introducing today. On a constant currency and consolidated basis, Cogeco Communications expects revenue to decrease between 1% and 3% compared to the prior year, as growth in Canada is offset by competitive pressures in the U.S. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease between 0% and 2% versus last year, as we continue to face revenue pressures in the U.S. and are investing in new sales and marketing capabilities, especially in the U.S., as part of our three-year transformation program, all while generating additional operational efficiencies.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

We will also incur some costs related to our Canadian wireless operations, including some IT costs recognized in Adjusted EBITDA starting in fiscal 2026, and I'll get back to this in a second. Turning to our capital expenditures, we are expecting to spend between CAD 560 million and CAD 600 million, including CAD 100 million to CAD 140 million in growth-oriented network expansions, resulting in a capital intensity of between 19% and 21%, or 15% and 17%, excluding those network expansion projects. free cash flow and free cash flow, excluding network expansions, are expected to increase between 0% and 10% compared to fiscal 25. Our full-year current tax rate is forecast to be 11.5%.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

In terms of segments, an important item to note is that beginning in Q1 of fiscal 26, Canadian mobility, which had been included in our corporate segment during the startup phase, will now be recorded in our Canadian segment, given the recent full-scale launch of the product. This reclassification will have no impact on the consolidated level and comparative segments for the prior year, and we will also adjust basically the results for the prior year for that. In addition, our IT costs related to Canadian mobility, which were recognized below the EBITDA line as cloud computing costs in fiscal 25 during the implementation period, will be recognized as OpEx within the Canadian segment starting in Q1, as those systems are now in operation. So, overall, we expect the fiscal 2026 Canadian segment's Adjusted EBITDA to be impacted by about CAD 20 million versus what we reported in fiscal 2025.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Of that, CAD 11 million is simply the reclassification from corporate OpEx to the Canadian business, and the balance is moving from below the EBITDA line to OpEx. That's basically the IT systems I was relating to. We nevertheless expect the Canadian operations growth to largely absorb those additional costs in fiscal 26 through customer growth and operational efficiencies. As it relates to Q1, we expect consolidated revenue and Adjusted EBITDA to decline in the mid-single-digit range in constant currency. We then expect a material sequential improvement in our year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA trends starting in the second quarter, as we benefit from already quantified cost savings, rate increases, and improving US customer trends.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

More specifically, in the U.S., we expect the Q1 year-on-year Adjusted EBITDA variation to be slightly better than the Q4 variation that we just reported, followed by solid gradual improvements as we benefit from easier year-on-year costs in addition to the aforementioned factors. At the consolidated level in Q1, with our restructuring program largely completed, we do not expect material acquisition, integration, and restructuring costs in the quarter, and we expect our financial expense to be about CAD 10 million less than in the prior quarter in Q4, while our depreciation and amortization expense should be about CAD four million lower than in Q4. Finally, at Cogeco Inc., we have issued the same financial guidelines as Cogeco Communications, with the exception of net capital expenditures. And now, Fred and I will be happy to take your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star, followed by the 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star, followed by the 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset up before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Aravinda Galappatthige with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open.

[Aravinda Galappatthige, Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to pick up on sort of the comments around the IT spend in wireless. A bit more broadly, given that you've launched now and it's deployed across the footprint, are you able to sort of update us on sort of the total impact on Canadian EBITDA or the expectation that's built into fiscal 2026? I know about that you talked about the CAD 9 million incremental piece from IT, but more broadly, given sort of the pricing changes you've done, just wanted to see how much of a drag it could create in the first half or even for the full year. Maybe start there.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Sure. Good morning. Yeah, so just the reclassification of some OpEx from corporate to our Canadian business and moving some IT costs from below the line to above the EBITDA line will create pressure of about CAD 20 million on our Canadian numbers. Obviously, it doesn't change anything, especially for free cash flow if you look at the full company. Two reclassifications. One will basically show the comparative values that will be adjusted in the prior year. That's basically what we're moving from corporate to our Canadian business. The other one will not be reclassified in the past, basically, as this is moving forward. That's the IT cost. That being said, as I was saying earlier, we are expecting growth in our Canadian business otherwise at the EBITDA line, so we should normally be able to absorb this.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

To your wider question on if I got your question right on what mobility does for us, obviously, we're starting from basically a very small number, so I wouldn't say that the numbers will be meaningful in terms of the benefits in year because obviously, we're starting from a small base, but we do see benefits, and we've been very successful with the launch so far, and we see a lot of interest from our customers, and again, to remind you, the goal with mobility is primarily to bundle services for our customers or non-customers that are neighbors of our customers in the regions that we serve. It can be used in acquisition. It can be used in retention as well.

[Aravinda Galappatthige, Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Thanks, Patrice. And then just sort of maybe just turning to the U.S., the wireless sort of experience so far, is there anything, any feedback you can provide or share in terms of how the churn profiles have been impacted by your wireless launch? I realize it's early, so perhaps it's not much, but anything you can share would be interesting.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Hi, Aravinda. It's Fred. Yes, we've analyzed it, and we see a materially lower churn in the U.S. from customers also taking wireless from us. Now, we have to be cautious because some of that is simply self-selection. So customers who like us better are less likely to churn or more likely to buy wireless anyways. But the churn difference is so pronounced that we believe at present time that there's a benefit above and beyond self-selection as it relates to churn benefit from wireless.

[Aravinda Galappatthige, Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Okay. Thank you, Fred. And then lastly, just a bigger picture question on the fiscal 2026 guide. I know, Patrice, you've talked about what Q1 would be like. Is it fair to suggest that the guide still assumes a close to mid-single-digit decline in the U.S. as far as EBITDA is concerned? And then a little bit of catch-up in Canada, or is it low single digits both geographies?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah. So I haven't commented really on what we expect for the full year, but I could say for what we're assuming in the U.S. for the full year at the EBITDA level, obviously in constant currency, we should do better than your assumption of mid-single digit, given that we see a better, a good improvement in the customer situation because we did lose a lot of customers in the prior year, and we're expecting to do a lot better there. We've implemented a lot of tactics as well to achieve this and also to manage how we price our products, how we handle it in retention. And our program, our three-year transformation program, is continuing, and we have further cost improvements that we are planning to bank on. We talked about the chatbots before. We've changed our phone systems as well, automated phone systems that now have AI components.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

These are just examples, but there's other elements as well in our programs that will kick in in the year.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

The other thing I would say about the U.S., Aravinda, is we've done a lower rate increase over the past year than we had in prior year in an effort to de-risk the ARPU. That, obviously, you can see in our Q4 results in the U.S., and you'll see in our Q1 results a little bit as well. But as we go into the next year, we have an opportunity to do rate increases in some segments that were not captured before. So it doesn't mean we'll do very large rate increases, but there are some segments that were previously not fully exploited, and therefore, we do see a bit of revenue upside from that starting in the second and third quarter.

[Aravinda Galappatthige, Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Thank you. I'll pass the line.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Vince Valentini with TD Bank. Your line is now open.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Hey, thanks, guys. Thanks for the extra detail on the wireless Canadian impact. Can I ask one other item on that? You've seen like you had a very strong start out of the gates, as you even say. You slowed down your marketing and pricing efforts as a result of that. Given all the customers you had out of the gates taking a free line for a year, you still have to pay the wholesale fees on that. Is that not a potential incremental drag on your EBITDA in the Canadian segment in 2026 as well?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah. Well, by the way, we have different types of products, so we do have paying customers as well. And again, this is linked also with them being customers with internet and maybe other products as well. But the numbers are still small, right? When you compare it to the size of our business in Canada, it's factored in in our guidance, but I wouldn't say it's a lot. We have a bit more marketing costs we're doing, obviously, as we launched, but not that material.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. Vince, the launch promotion was something that was budgeted and is in our forecast. We thought it was an efficient way of getting started, so we consider it almost a marketing investment. But as you've said, we've already pulled back, and at this time, the free line for a year is only available on our talk-and-text plan without data, which very few customers take.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay. Thanks. Sticking with Canada and the more disciplined pricing environment you're seeing, does that not open up some opportunities for rate increases on your platform? And I know you don't talk about them before they're announced to your customers, but is there any broad sense you can give us as to what you've baked into your guidance for ARPU growth in Canada?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah, so I think we'll stick with our policy of not talking about it in advance, but I would say generally, we do have some price increases that are reasonable in our different products, especially for video and internet, so normally, we put out guidance like this. We do have an expectation when they obviously, they don't cover the full year as they're put through during the year. We did have some recently that will impact the full year, but it varies by product.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

And I'll just add, beyond the rate increases that we do, obviously, a reality of our business for the past many years is that new customers come in at our lower ARPU than existing customers. But with a more rational pricing environment, we're seeing the ARPU of new customers ticking up a bit in recent months. There's also the stickiness at the end of promotions, which has the possibility to increase as customers are not presented with as aggressive offers from competition.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay. I'm going to switch to the US. Correct me if I heard this right. You added 35,000 new fiber-to-the-home passing just in fiscal 2025?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

The comment that I made in my section of the introduction is that we have upgraded 35,000 doors from cable to fiber.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Right. But that's not a total. That's the incremental in the fiscal year.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Correct.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

So two questions on that. Can you give us any sense to what the total fiber passing are now? And secondly, to get that extra 35,000, was that using the new technology that you sort of talked to us about last November?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

The second part of the question, the answer is yes, and that's why you still see good CapEx from us.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah, and we'll continue this in fiscal 2026. So our program to selectively upgrade certain areas in the U.S. with fiber-to-the-home, as it is a good cost-benefit to us with this new technology. It doesn't apply everywhere, but there are some areas where it does a lot of sense. This will continue this year and probably a little bit in fiscal 2027. Again, we can absorb this in our CapEx envelope. Overall, to your question, we don't disclose specifically our fiber components. As you know, most of our network is fiber, but the last mile, obviously, we're still predominantly on coax, and it's generally more efficient to upgrade the coax than do an overbuild as we're doing selectively in the U.S. So I would say overall, between the network expansions that we're doing, those are generally in fiber-to-the-home. We've been doing this for more than 10 years.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

The selective upgrades, it's still a small portion of our network that is fully fiber-to-the-home. But again, as we upgrade coax, we're able to deliver in many regions, actually, 2 gigs, even on coax by doing minor. We're not even on DOCSIS 4 yet. And so we offer 2 gigs in several regions in Canada. So I would say the future will be a mix of fiber-to-the-home, upgrades of coax, and there's different ways of upgrading that. Eventually, we'll have DOCSIS 4 as well, but we did not rush it as we're able to generally have much faster speeds than what customers want. So the cost-benefit is better for us to do it this way.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Sorry. I'm going to ask one more on this because I don't think it's well understood by people. The cost per home passed when you did those 35,000, because of that new, more efficient technology, can you give us an update on what the average cost was per home in terms of the CapEx?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah. It varies by region, but I would say it's generally probably around $400 or so. But really, there's some that are less expensive than this and some more, so it's not just a one number. And the more dense it is, and depending on how the structure of the network is, it is yeah. So it is fairly effective when you look at this versus doing the traditional fiber-to-the-home with the traditional method. You know the numbers for competitors, so generally, this is a lot higher. This is what we do in network expansions as well. And when you look also at going through the coax route all the way to DOCSIS 4 with high splits, you can get to these numbers easily as well over time with the CPE changes. So yeah. So I would say it's probably a good average to use.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Sorry, Patrice. We're talking about the U.S. segment. So when you say 400, are you talking $400?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yes, it is U.S. dollars. Yeah.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay. And last, just for Cash Flow, I'm sure others are asked about this too, but just in general sense, I want to make sure you're clear. Excluding rural projects, you're guiding to like CAD 625 million-CAD 690 million of free cash flow this fiscal year, and you're saying you can only do CAD 600 million in fiscal 2027. Is that because you found new expansion projects so that that bucket of CapEx doesn't go to zero, or are you deliberately telegraphing that other items within free cash flow are going to go negative, whether it's EBITDA or cash taxes or interest or something else?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

No, or the other question that you could have asked is whether the 600 is actually too low a number, but I would say 600, we think, is a good number to use. Obviously, we'll see where we are a year from now when we provide guidance for fiscal 27, but that's still our plan right now. Within our expansion numbers, we have these bigger projects that are generally subsidized, so there's still a lot going on in Ontario this year, which will finish in 27. There shouldn't be that much CapEx in fiscal 27 related to that. That being said, we are generally building in territory as well, so there's always new construction, new neighborhoods, new streets. So this will continue. Eventually, we will not break it down as we're going to be done with the bigger projects, so you'll just see one number.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

It will not be meaningful to split it out, but I would say these will continue. And also, the other component is, as we've built in many areas and we're loading customers, we are adding CPEs for these customers. So we have to obviously invest there. And sometimes, depending on how we built the network, sometimes we have to install service lines as well, basically the drops we put from the street to the house. For some of the projects, it's pre-installed, and for some of them, it's not. It's really when customers want to connect, we pass this drop. So I would say these CapEx will continue in the future.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

So it's not telegraphing an EBITDA pressure or any other pressure?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

No. Yes.

[Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Appreciate the call, guys. Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Jérôme Dubreuil with Desjardins. Your line is now open.

[Jérôme Dubreuil, Analyst at Desjardins]

Hey, Thanks for taking my question. First one for me. I'd like you, if possible, to give a little bit more detail on the turnaround you expect on the top line, where we're at mid-single-digit declines in the quarter. But you're expecting an improvement if I look at the guidance. So maybe more granularity on this. Is it from wireless? Was there a top comp or maybe an assumption of improvement in competition?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yes. So good morning, Jérôme. So you're talking at a consolidated level, right?

[Jérôme Dubreuil, Analyst at Desjardins]

Yes.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Okay. Great. Yeah. So I would say if we look at our Canadian business, we've been adding a lot of customers, as you know. We are still planning to continue to grow the Canadian business, so this translates into additional revenue. We have visibility on basically our current client base, customer base. We also know when we have new customers, often on promotions, some that are roll-off promotions as well. So this is all factored in. And based on this, we'll eventually have some price increases as well. But I would say the key driver in Canada is really the additional subscribers we're able to load on that we were not doing as much of, let's say, two years ago. And that should produce better numbers on the top line in Canada than what we've seen in the past year.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

And in the U.S., I would say similar story on the subscribers. It's just that we're starting from a negative number. We do see some improvements from what we reported on in Q4, but we're already well into Q1 right now. So we are seeing benefits, and we've put a lot of new tactics to play and go to market, and many of them are working well. So I would say this is the key element we're seeing for next year. We're still planning to see a negative number in the U.S. in terms of year-on-year. We still have video cord cutting and home phone cord cutting like the whole industry, but still an improvement overall.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. I'll only add, Jérôme, first on the Canadian side, we've been adding subs at a good pace for many quarters now, but the pressure in the past was ARPU, and what we're seeing now with a slightly better pricing environment is we're seeing a bit of upside on ARPU, as we were talking about before with Vince, the ARPU of new customers, the ARPU at promo expiry, and the possibility for rate increases, and it doesn't take much of an ARPU improvement given the strong sub loadings to benefit the revenue overall, and then in the U.S., we've touched on it earlier, but we had done a materially lower rate increase over the past year, and now the elephant's going through the stink, and we expect better progression in the U.S., especially going through the second quarter.

[Jérôme Dubreuil, Analyst at Desjardins]

Okay. Great. Yeah. Second one for me, just continuing on Vince's line of question on the DOCSIS to fiber-to-the-home upgrade, the coax, I should say, to the fiber-to-the-home. Is this something you plan to do across your whole footprint? You kind of alluded to the fact that it could be more efficient to do that than taking the DOCSIS roadmap, or is this something you really use as a tactic to maybe counter the fiber deployments?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Thanks for the question, Jérôme, and maybe starting at a higher level, when you look at our total CapEx envelope, so much of it is maintenance. The majority is business as usual maintenance, so when you see us reducing our CapEx, that is where the reduction and the efficiency is coming from. Our growth-related CapEx, which is everything you're talking about now, continues, whether it's expanding our network to new rural areas or upgrading our network in the various ways that you're mentioning, so as it relates to network upgrades, we're doing a lot of mid-splits in Canada in particular. We're really improving. It's now over 90% of our doors have a download speed of 1 gig and sometimes 2 gig, and we're also really improving the upload speeds, as noted by Ookla, for example.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

And then in the U.S., we have this capital-efficient way of upgrading our coax network to fiber, for example, the 35,000 doors that we've done last year. And our forecast for the coming year also implies that we will continue with both sets of programs that I was talking about for the U.S. and Canada. So it's a mix depending on the region, mid-splits, even sometimes some high splits in some regions, plus this capital-efficient upgrade of coax to fiber.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah. Yeah, definitely that's the plan, and as you know, us, we've always, over the years, tried to be very capital-efficient and always provide a lot more than what customers are requiring from us in terms of speeds and capacity and doing it in a capital-efficient way rather than over-investing in a network that would not necessarily be used. It is, and in the U.S., more specifically to your question on competition, for sure, in some regions, it does help to upgrade to fiber, but obviously, we only do it if it makes sense financially when you take a multi-year view of the otherwise upgrades we would need to do in these particular regions.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. Our U.S. competitive dynamics are getting predictable, much more predictable by state, by market in terms of who's likely to do some upgrades in our competitors, who may be tempted to overbuild, so we have pretty granular projections at a market-by-market level, and we're using that to inform where we will upgrade that market to fiber, for example, as a protective measure, for instance.

[Jérôme Dubreuil, Analyst at Desjardins]

Thanks,

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Matthew Griffiths with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

[Matthew Griffiths, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So in the second year of your transformation program, I think you've mentioned that you're going to see some more investments to sustain or to move you towards a path to sustainable growth. And not to be too nitpicky or anything, but is that growth at the revenue level, or are you talking growth on a free cash flow level? And maybe you can elaborate on the investments. What are you spending money on that you think is going to generate the sustainable growth going forward, and when will that kind of do you expect that to materialize? If it's top line, if it's obviously free cash flow, it's somewhat baked in already.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. Hi, Matthew, it's Fred. I'll start with the last part of the question. Whatever investments we're making are fully baked into our guidance. There are many things we do that are not so material at the EBITDA or CapEx level. We've already talked a lot about our CapEx investments anyways in upgrading our networks, so I'm not going to repeat that. But at the EBITDA level, a lot of what we're doing is not material. Investments in AI analytics pricing are not that expensive. The two that are material are growing certain sales channels in the U.S., which were underdeveloped. You do need to make an investment in staff and commissions on things like that, as well as wireless in Canada. But again, that's baked into the guidance for the coming year.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

As it relates to which growth we want, certainly we've already been delivering a growth in subs in Canada. We think ARPU has better upside than in the past. So therefore, I think revenue growth in Canada, and I'm not going to give a super precise time period here, but revenue growth in Canada is certainly within reach. In the U.S., it's about continuing our stabilization of our sub losses. We think that continued sub growth in Ohio is realistic. As it relates to the rest of the footprint, we're on track to diminishing those losses, and we expect lower losses in the next quarter as well. Overall, in terms of top line for the U.S., we'll have to see. It remains a challenging market, but we certainly don't expect the same challenging top line performance as what we've seen in the past year.

[Matthew Griffiths, Analyst at Bank of America]

Okay. That's helpful, and then on margins, obviously, the business is benefiting from the natural mix shift away from video and so on and towards internet, but can you help us understand how much your cost reduction program is contributing to the margin improvement in addition to the natural mix shift that you're seeing?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah. It's a good question. I'm not sure I have the exact answer for you right now on this call, but I would say it's a mix of two. You're right. There is a mix shift towards more internet, which does increase the percentage. As we look at the competitive nature of the industry, there's also the ARPU that plays into it, and so I would say the best way to look at it is to look at our OpEx that does include some video costs in what we report publicly, but you can see that it's been shrinking. We can perhaps take it offline and try to give you a little more information on this, but I would say it's really a mix of the two because our cost reductions are quite material, actually, in what we've been doing in the past year.

[Matthew Griffiths, Analyst at Bank of America]

Okay. That would be helpful. And then maybe just one quick one, if I could sneak it in. In the past, you've talked about evaluating whether or not it makes sense to kind of divest some small systems throughout your U.S. footprint. Has that file been closed at this stage, or is that still something that is potentially out there?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. Matt, at present time, it's closed. We've looked at a few options. There were interesting possibilities, but not interesting enough, we judged at the time to strip out an asset because carve-outs are always challenging and could be a distraction for the organization in the midst of a big transformation. But who knows? We always keep options open in the future.

[Matthew Griffiths, Analyst at Bank of America]

Okay. Thanks a lot for the answers. I appreciate it.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Maher Yaghi with Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

[Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank]

So I just wanted to maybe just drill down on the homes passed increase in Canada. I mean, in the last two years, you've added approximately 70,000-75,000 new homes passed. And a lot of it is fiber, as I understand it. So can you just give us a perspective on the strength that you're seeing in your internet subscriber gains in Canada? How much they're coming from these fiber edge-outs and new homes passed versus Oxio versus Cogeco out-of-territory? Just to understand maybe the return characteristics of these fiber rollouts that you're doing. Thank you.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Hi. I'm Fred. A few things here. First off, yes. Most extensions that we do in both Canada and the U.S. are on fiber. As it relates to the return on those investments, they're quite good in line with what Patrice has quoted in the past, and we do exceed 50% penetration of those new builds because they're rural areas with high demand. As it relates to contribution to our net growth, it varies quarter by quarter between network expansion, Oxio, and the legacy business. All I can say is that for this past Q4, it was mostly, first of all, it was mostly on our own network and less as a reseller that the growth came from, and it was actually mostly from legacy areas, so in the fourth quarter, network expansion was not the largest contributor to the growth.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Now, as we continue to build in Ontario in fiscal 26 and going into fiscal 27 as well, we do expect that network expansion will be a more material contributor to our sub growth.

[Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. Thank you. And just to follow up, the launch of Cogeco service under the Cogeco brand outside of your home territory, Oxio, as you've indicated in the past, has been a good success to capture out-of-market internet subscribers. So maybe can you talk a little bit about the objective of launching Cogeco branded service outside of your home territory in addition to Oxio that was already there?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Sure. First, at a higher level, internet resale in Canada between the different players is a fact of life, and it's been a fact of life for quite some time. The two of the big three that we don't already compete with on an infrastructure basis are already reselling our network in Quebec and Ontario and have been doing so for quite some time. I would say it doesn't appear to be material, neither for our growth as a reseller nor for our churn at present time. So there seems to be more noise than anything else around all this. On your question, more specifically, our strategic intent by opening up Cogeco as a reseller across Quebec is purely optionality.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

In a world where the resale dynamics continue to evolve, as I said, they're not material at present time, but we have nothing to lose from opening up another few million doors on the Cogeco brand. We, as a smaller company, we benefit from asymmetry in this whole game whereby we just covered 2 million homes in Canada, and there are 15 million homes. So we get an asymmetric advantage. But so far, it's not much more than optionality. However, if for whatever reason we decide to push harder on this, now the systems are activated, and it's pretty quick for us to push harder.

[Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. Can you disclose how many you mentioned that you saw some good success with the wireless launch in Canada? Can you share some KPIs on that?

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah. So we are not disclosing yet at this point. As you know, we're starting from nothing. So it's still a small base. Very happy with so far, but I mean, it takes time to have critical mass. So over time, we do expect at one point to disclose the mobile subs, but it's not something we're planning to do for sure this year. And we'll see in the future. It's obviously important to make sure we don't release non-material information that can be used by competition. So that's where we are at this point.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. I'll only say that the strong demand that we're getting, even though it's still going to take time to scale, to Patrice's point, at least it's indicating to us that there's a way for us to run that business without it being a drag at an individual customer level. For example, we could already pull back on some of our intro promotions. So I think at a unitary customer level, it's good news.

[Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. And maybe just to double down on this, the pullback on the promotion, it kind of came at the same time as Rogers launched fixed wireless in your territory. Were the two related? Why you pulled back on wireless promotion?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

No. Absolutely not. We achieved the sub objectives that we wanted to achieve, and that's how we run the business.

[Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank]

I'm trying to square the decision to pull back from offering one-year service on wireless as a promotion to existing customers in Canada with the U.S. strategy where it's still going on, and it's been a year or so, less than maybe a year that you launched it. You're still offering free lines. Can you maybe just compare for us why it's still going on in the U.S. and not in Canada?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

It's purely a function of competitive dynamics and pricing dynamics in the market, Maher. The other players are doing it too in the U.S., the other cable players in particular. So that's what we have to do to be in the game at present time, north of the border.

[Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Stephanie Price with CIBC. Your line is now open.

[Sam Schmidt, Analyst at CIBC]

Hi there. It's Sam Schmidt on for Stephanie Price. I wanted to ask a question around Ohio. The net additions turned positive in the quarter, and U.S. subscriber losses also improved sequentially. Can you help unpack what changed there in terms of your strategy as well as in the competitive environment, both for Ohio and the U.S. more broadly? Thanks.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Sure. Good to meet you. I'll start with Ohio, and then I'll talk about U.S. competitive dynamics more broadly. In Ohio, Ohio is, and I think we've disclosed this percentage of our doors coming from Ohio, it's roughly 40% of our total U.S. doors that are in Ohio, and our penetration is quite low. So it's been some time where we see a lot of upside for us in that market, and we're starting to execute against that upside. So there were some sales channels which were not as developed in the state. So we're starting to develop the channels. We keep optimizing our pricing as well. And over time, we think there are several quarters of growth in Ohio for us as we get closer over the years to what we believe is our fair share. U.S. competitive dynamics in general.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Last quarter, we said that we saw an uptick in competitive dynamics or competitive intensity in the U.S. in three of our states. I would say at present time, it's more two of those states. One of the three has eased back down. Of the two that remain, we have room to believe that one will ease back down of those two as well over the coming months. We also see, interestingly, that FWA is not impacting us as a company as much as it was two, three years ago. We rigorously track churn destination of our customers leaving us by state, and FWA is actually relatively low down the list at this time. You could only speculate why that is. We do know that some of the FWA players are now focusing more on the B2B segment where we're not as present.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

So even though two of the three FWA players are re-accelerating their sales, sometimes it's in the B2B segment. Otherwise, maybe they've tapped out in their relevant customer segments in our markets. Not exactly sure, but the bottom line is FWA is not impacting us as much as before. We still see intense promotions more generally from some of the national wireline players. So you net all of that out, I'd say the U.S. competitive environment remains intense but has not worsened from the previous quarter. And there may be some slight improvement coming over the next couple of quarters. Yet to be seen.

[Sam Schmidt, Analyst at CIBC]

Thank you. That's helpful. And then maybe just one on the Canadian competitive market outside of your network expansion. Are you seeing increased competition from competitors as they look to build out a footprint through TPIA or fixed wireless? And then I'll pass the line. Thank you.

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Thank you. It's really not very material for us, neither TPIA nor FWA in Canada. As I mentioned in an earlier question, TPIA competition has been happening for a long time, and it's not really impacting us. FWA is more recent, but it tends to be focused in Quebec, which is one-third of our Canadian footprint. And we're not really feeling it, as you can see in our strong sub results in Canada. And then on the positive side, there's been a real material pullback in promotional activity in the core wireline business that more than offsets in a positive way the minor noise that we see in TPIA and FWA.

[Sam Schmidt, Analyst at CIBC]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have a question, please press star one. Your next question comes from Drew McReynolds with RBC. Your line is now open.

[Drew McReynolds, Analyst at RBC]

Yeah. Thanks very much. Good morning too for me. Maybe for you, Patrice. In terms of the reinvestment levels that you make in the business as part of the transformation program embedded into fiscal 2026 guidance, do your reinvestments in the business stay stable? Are you absorbing a sequential increase? Or likewise, does the reinvestment level begin to ease as part of the transformation program going forward? And then secondly, I think there's some language about CAD 100 million in CapEx spent on longer-term growth opportunities over five years. Just wondering at a high level what kind of growth opportunities you'd be looking to take advantage of with that level of investment. Thank you.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Hey, Greg. Good morning. So on the transformation program, I would say when we look at better utilizing different go-to-market tactics and optimizing our sales channels, we are increasing, and that's embedded in our guidance. We are increasing the use of those channels. Obviously, there's costs related to that. And obviously, that translates into new customers and new revenue. We'll see going forward as we're successful with it. Obviously, the payback on these investments is very good. You have to look at the lifetime of a customer. But so far, from what we're seeing, they're good. But I would say we've allocated some dollars in our guidance for this. Yeah.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

And Drew, an example would be what we were talking about earlier in the previous question in Ohio where we can really grow share to get closer to our fair share.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

So we're making the investment in achieving that, and it's starting to yield some benefit. So that investment is increasing, but we'll pay back. The other example is wireless, as Patrice explained earlier.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

Yeah, and on the second question on the CAD 100 million, actually, it's something we've had. We put it in the annual report, but we've had it for a few years. Basically, we have mentioned a few years ago that we might invest, and it's not CapEx, actually. Those would be investments in smaller companies to produce growth later on, so more in startup mode. It's not something we've done so far, but it's not new disclosure, actually, if you go back to last year. So we'll see. If we do some, I do not expect it to be CapEx, and no impact on free cash flow or anything. It would be more an investment on the balance sheet.

[Drew McReynolds, Analyst at RBC]

Okay. Thank you for that clarification. And maybe one last one, and I may have missed this. In terms of the rate of network or footprint expansion expected in fiscal 2026 relative to the 50,000, and in fiscal 2025, do you have that for us?

[Frédéric Perron, President and CEO at Cogeco Communications Inc.]

Yeah. It would probably be similar. So I would say Canada because we're going to be. It's a mix of what we're doing in Ontario. And also, as I said earlier, what we're doing in footprints, so new neighborhoods and new streets. We'll probably be around 40,000 addition in Canada. U.S. will be lower. We have less of these bigger programs, so probably closer to 10,000 new homes in the U.S.

[Drew McReynolds, Analyst at RBC]

Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Patrice Ouimet for closing remarks.

[Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO at Cogeco Inc.]

All right, so we're right on time, so thank you, everyone, for these questions, and happy to take additional questions if you want to talk to us before our next scheduled call for the Q1 results. Thank you. Have a good day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Patrice Ouimet, SVP and CFO
• Frédéric Perron, President and CEO

Analysts

• Vince Valentini, Analyst at TD Cowen
• Matthew Griffiths, Analyst at Bank of America
• Maher Yaghi, Analyst at Scotiabank
• Aravinda Galappatthige, Analyst at Canaccord Genuity
• Drew McReynolds, Analyst at RBC
• Sam Schmidt, Analyst at CIBC
• Jérôme Dubreuil, Analyst at Desjardins