ATI Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 4, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Record Q4 and FY 2024 results: Q4 revenue rose 12% sequentially to $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA beat guidance by $210 million; full-year revenue hit $4.4 billion (highest since 2012) and free cash flow jumped over 50%.
  • Robust aerospace & defense demand: 2024 airframe revenue grew 4.5% and jet engine revenue climbed 9%, while defense sales jumped 22%, together accounting for over 65% of Q4 revenue.
  • Strong 2025 outlook: Company projects adjusted EBITDA to rise each quarter in 2025, with full-year guidance of $800 million to $840 million and Q1 range of $170 million to $180 million.
  • Macroeconomic and trade uncertainties: Potential tariffs on key raw materials (e.g., nickel, zirconium) and ongoing union negotiations could pressure costs and supply continuity despite diversification and pass-through pricing clauses.
  • Operational resilience efforts: Q3 disruptions (nickel VIM and vaconeal outages) are largely resolved, but vaconeal repairs extend into Q2 as ATI ramps investments in AI-enabled predictive maintenance.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
ATI Q4 2024
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Hello everyone and welcome to the ATI fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Becky and I'll be your operator today. During the presentation, you can register a question by pressing star followed by one on your keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. If you are having any issues, please press star followed by zero. I will now hand over to your host, David Westin, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. Please go ahead.

David Westin
David Westin
VP of Investor Relations at ATI

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to ATI's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Participating in today's call to share key points from our fourth quarter results are Kim Fields, President and CEO, and Don Newman, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before starting our prepared remarks, I would like to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results and outlook and can also be found on our website at atimaterials.com. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions. As a reminder, all forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the accompanying presentation. Now, I'll turn the call over to Kim.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Thanks, Dave. Good morning everyone. Q4 was a great quarter for ATI. We ended the year on a high note that gives us momentum going into 2025. Let me share the financial headlines first. In the fourth quarter, revenue was up 12% sequentially to $1.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $210 million above our guided range of $181-$191 million. On a full year basis, revenue was nearly $4.4 billion, our highest since 2012, up 5% even with the challenges we and the industry encountered this year. Adjusted EBITDA was $729 million and EBITDA margins were almost 17%, with both segments contributing strong performance. Free cash flow for 2024 was $248 million, up more than 50% over last year. Our top line growth and expanding margins led to double-digit percentage increases to Adjusted EBITDA. These results demonstrate that our transformational strategy is on track.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

We're confident in our performance and 2025 is on pace to be even better. As a result, we're forecasting our 2025 Adjusted EBITDA will build each successive quarter during the year with our full year outlook above $800 million. Don will get into these details in a moment. Three key areas drive our confidence in ATI's future. Number one, 2025 demand remains robust. You're likely hearing it in our customers' earnings call. Boeing is bouncing back, ramping with the 737 MAX on track. Airbus remains steady with opportunities for upside as they push their ramp rates. We're seeing stability as anxiety comes out of the supply chain. Demand for ATI materials comes from every segment of the aerospace industry. Our products are on every commercial platform flying today. In Q4, we shipped more than Q3, yet our backlog remains steady. It didn't drop.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Backlog isn't a pure indicator of the full demand picture. Remember, through long-term agreements, our customers reserve their capacity based on anticipated upcoming needs. These orders are continuing to flow and are growing. Our full year 2024 airframe revenue was up 4.5% year over year. Jet engine revenue was up 9%. Our isothermal forgings are a key driver of this growth. In 2024, the team was able to increase iso pushes by 32%. In the fourth quarter, they achieved their highest quarterly total output ever. In addition to OEM build rates, MRO and the GTF engine overhaul program are also driving heavy engine demand. We are continuing to ramp our support of this program with sales in 2024, almost triple 2023 sales, and anticipate to increase another 50% in 2025. Our defense business continues to grow as well. Full year revenues were up 22% to $490 million.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

When the United States and our allies need reliable, high-performance advanced materials, we're honored they turned to ATI. The continued growth of our defense business demonstrates both demand for our products and confidence in our ability to deliver. Combined, aerospace and defense exceeded 65% of fourth quarter revenue. For the full year, they represent more than 62%, delivering strong performance in growing markets. In addition to our core A& D markets, you've heard us talk about Aero-like. This is where the differentiated ATI materials come into play. In the electronics and specialty energy markets, continued demand for high-performance chips and the resurgence of nuclear energy put our Hafnium, Niobium, and Zirconium alloys in high demand. Generally, long-term demand for these products is predicted to exceed current supply.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

It's interesting to note that our combined electronics and specialty energy sales in the fourth quarter were nearly equal to our defense sales, which I just mentioned were up significantly, and remember, we call these markets aero light because of the growth and margins they typically deliver. That brings me to my second key driver of confidence. Operationally, ATI is where we need to be. We are on track, not just having recovered from the challenges of Q3, but being stronger from them. The continued investments we are making in equipment reliability and AI technology are allowing us to predict potential issues and proactively correct them before they occur. Our productivity improvements give us the opportunity to participate in transactional business where we want to, where we're valued most. One of the most rewarding parts of leading our team is getting calls when they hit a new record.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

I received a lot of those calls this quarter, announcing things like record levels of premium quality heat melted, milestones in powder billet, best flow times all over the system, and newly qualified operations as we gain share. With our team operating as one ATI, each business's best can raise the next operation to its new best. I appreciate all they're doing and I'm honored to celebrate their successes. Let's get to my third and final key driver of confidence. I am optimistic for the future based on growth activity we're already seeing. Today's 2025 guidance is in line with Boeing's projections, and as an early in the value stream supplier, we'll be one of the first to see increased pull as they strive to meet ramping build rates. For 2026, Boeing publicly stated that the 787 builds will increase from five to seven, another sign of increasing stability.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

The 777X is entering back into service, something we've all been looking forward to. We are beginning to see signs of this increasing demand for titanium and currently anticipate seeing an uptick in the back half of 2025. In July, we announced $4 billion in new sales commitments, much of which were tied to our differentiated nickel products. Those commitments added new scope and long-term agreements that both build and extend our core. We believe that growing demand has tremendous upside. You've likely heard of the emerging DOD budget inputs evolving around the philosophy of peace through strength, with additional funding targeted to potentially increase defense spending by as much as $200 billion or $100 billion per year for fiscal years 2025 and 2026.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

If they move forward, it is expected that a portion of this increase would benefit production programs where ATI provides materials, naval, air, and ground vehicles, supporting our expectations for growth in defense. Lastly, our team gives me great confidence. With each goal met, they strive to set the bar higher, often surprising themselves with what they can achieve. When faced with an opportunity or a challenge, our mindset is, what would have to be true for us to succeed? From that starting point, the ideas start flowing, making each day better than the last. Now, Don will share details about our 2024 results and the outlook for 2025.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Thanks, Kim. Let me provide some additional insights into the quarter, which was well ahead of our expectations from a revenue and profit standpoint. Cash flow was in line with what we had anticipated. I will also touch on some full year highlights before talking through our 2025 outlook. Let's start by highlighting key results for the quarter and comparing against our guidance. Revenue approached $1.2 billion in Q4, up $122 million or 12% sequentially. That's up 10% year-over-year. Q4 revenue was higher than we expected as customer demand improved from Q3. Mix was a bit weaker than we anticipated due to short-term shifts in customer requirements. Our Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was approximately $210 million, above our guided range of $181-$191 million.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

It's important to clarify that our adjusted results include approximately $18 million of non-operational favorability from sale of oil and gas rights and clarification of tax credit rules by the IRS in Q4. Some of those tax benefits relate to activities that predate the quarter. If we were to exclude those items as they were not embedded in our guidance, the underlying Adjusted EBITDA would have been in the range of $192 million. That's still above the high end of our guided range. We achieved this positive performance despite several offsetting unfavorable impacts noted in our earnings release. Through meaningful growth in sales and an increasing mix of A and D content, our results reflect improved performance and the ongoing execution of our long-term strategy. Full year 2024 revenue was nearly $4.4 billion, our highest revenue since 2012. For the full year, revenue grew roughly 5% over 2023.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Excluding metal impacts, full year 2024 revenue grew nearly 9% over 2023 levels. We delivered almost 17% Adjusted EBITDA margins across the business for the year. At 17.9% this quarter, margins are approaching the targets we've set for the coming year. In HPMC, fourth quarter margins declined 230 basis points sequentially to 20%. This was driven by more than $6 million in charges to address ongoing customer commercial negotiations, as well as adjustments to incentive compensation tied to ATI's improved performance. In AA&S, our fourth quarter margins increased 150 basis points sequentially. Those margins exceeded 16% as the mix and strength of A&D and aero light volumes continue to increase. This increase includes $10 million of favorable benefits from clarification from the IRS on the advanced manufacturing production credit. Excluding this benefit, margins for AA&S would have been in line with our expectations and Q3 performance.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

As we anticipated, our fourth quarter was a very strong quarter for cash, delivering approximately $400 million in free cash flow. While full year free cash flow is within the range of our guidance, underlying performance is lower than we originally expected in 2024. It's been supplemented by proceeds from several divestitures that were not originally contained in our plan or guidance. Knowing that, we are encouraged by the reductions we made this quarter in managed working capital, reducing sequentially from 40% to 31%. We look to build on our improvements in free cash flow this year to deliver a more consistent and predictable cash-generating business in 2025 and beyond. In the area of capital investment, our total spend for the year was $239 million, including $17 million of capital that was funded by customers through direct investment in capacity. That funding was included in cash from operations as required.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Our net debt ratio improved sequentially from 2.2 to 1.6 times this quarter, with further reductions likely to come with profitable growth. We continued returning cash to shareholders this quarter with $70 million of share repurchases. We deployed $260 million in 2024 to repurchase shares, representing 105% of 2024 free cash flow. We start 2025 with our existing authorization at $590 million. This quarter represents a strong conclusion of 2024 and helps shape our expectations for 2025. With that, let's turn to our 2025 guidance. As we have said consistently over the past several months, we expect the first half of the year to reflect modest recovery as the commercial aero supply chain rebounds and subsequently grows. Taking that into account, along with seasonality we know exists in our business, we are setting our Adjusted EBITDA guidance range for Q1 at $170-$180 million.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

That equates to an adjusted earnings per share range of $0.55-$0.61. For the full year, we have narrowed our range within the previous target for 2025. That aligns with how we have seen this market recovery and the delays in the aero ramp unfolding over the last half of 2024. We are setting the full year 2025 range for Adjusted EBITDA at $800-$840 million, with a corresponding range of EPS at $2.80-$3 per share. As you would expect, we will work all year to pursue opportunities to eliminate risks and build on this guidance. Even though we don't provide direct guidance for revenue and margins on an ongoing basis, our previous targets remain unchanged for 2025. Turning to free cash flow, we are setting the full year range at $240-$360 million.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

This range contemplates how much more we believe we can improve managed working capital timing and efficiency within this time of growth. We are assuming between $260-$280 million in capital investment this year, a portion of which may be funded by customers. We are investing a portion of the proceeds from our 2024 divestitures to support profitable growth, reliability, and debottlenecking. $150 million in debt comes due in Q4, which we plan to repay with balance sheet cash. We believe we can continue to reduce share count throughout the year with a disciplined and balanced approach to share repurchases. Note the guidance I'm sharing today is based on the assumptions that actions of the new U.S. administration will not materially change the current business environment and that we are not impacted by any work stoppages.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

To summarize, the path we outlined last quarter, underpinned by the strategy and financial targets we have pursued for several years, continues to guide our course for the year. Despite the dynamics the A and D industry encountered in 2024, we see significant opportunity ahead. We are working every day to fulfill that commitment to our customers and shareholders. With that, I will turn the call back over to Kim.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Thanks, Don. As I shared, we are optimistic about the future. We're bullish on demand and our markets. Operationally, we're stable and improving. We're seeing our long-term strategy deliver. Yes, there are risks ahead, both known and unknown. Let me take a minute to address the dynamic macroeconomics we're all experiencing, including tariffs and trade actions. The steps we've taken to mitigate risk give me confidence that we're well-positioned for any environment. We're predominantly a U.S.-based manufacturer, and in recent years, we've taken deliberate action to diversify our supply sources. We have purposely expanded pass-through mechanisms in our contracts. We are nimble and experienced in responding to uncertainty. As we overcome each challenge, we know our success will make our business better and strengthen our ability to perform now and in the future, and with that, let's open the line for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. We ask today that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question is from David Strauss from Barclays. David, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

David Strauss
David Strauss
Analyst at Barclays

Good morning. Thanks, everyone.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Good morning, David.

David Strauss
David Strauss
Analyst at Barclays

Don, hey. So you gave the guidance for Q1 EBITDA. Can you just talk about the progression through the rest of the year? It looks like we're going to need - you're going to need a pretty steep recovery in the second half to get to your guidance range.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Sure. I'd be happy to kind of walk you through that. And you're right. When you look at our Q1, Q1 reflects some seasonal movements from the Q4 performance down to Q1. It also reflects removal of some of the non-repeating items around asset sales and whatnot. But as you look at the pattern for the 2025, looking at it by quarter, what I would say is one place you could start. I think that the consensus figures that are out there, the market expectations, show a reasonably good pattern of how to think about the progression through the quarters. So midpoint in our guide for Q1 in the mid-170s, what I would expect is that with that seasonality behind us, you get to Q2, you would be experiencing something closer to the low 200s.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Then in the second half of the year, we would expect to see recovering a number of areas, which will create some lift in the second half versus the first half. So I would expect that you'll see EBITDA kind of in the 210-220-plus kind of range for Q3, Q4. That'll give you an idea of the kind of pace and pattern to think about.

David Strauss
David Strauss
Analyst at Barclays

Great. That's helpful. And Kim, you touched on it briefly, but the potential of tariffs with Canada, specifically for you guys. I think you purchased a lot of your nickel from Canada. So maybe if you could just touch on that and the mechanism that you have in place in your contracts to potentially recover if we do see a tariff on nickel in Canada. Thanks.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure, David. As I mentioned, as you commented, we are well-positioned as we think about tariffs. We have diversified, as you said, a portion of our nickel comes from Canada, but it's much less than 50%. In fact, it's probably closer to 25%, and a lot of that is going for additional processing into Norway and other countries in Europe, but we've got multiple sources. It's three or four or five, which does allow us a little bit of flexibility as we think about the changing and evolving situation. The pass-through mechanisms, I'd say, were in place. Nickel, obviously, based on an LME price, we had surcharges and premiums that were already in place before the pandemic, but as we came out and we saw rapid inflation, we took that opportunity to really enforce those mechanisms to make sure that we get close alignment.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

And our intention is to pass through any increase in costs that we're seeing in our raw materials. So we feel like we're in a good place for that today. And we'll continue to monitor and be flexible based on the changing dynamics.

David Strauss
David Strauss
Analyst at Barclays

Thanks for the call, Kim.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Seth Seifman
Seth Seifman
Analyst at JPMorgan

Thanks very much and good morning.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Good morning, Seth.

Seth Seifman
Seth Seifman
Analyst at JPMorgan

I wonder if you could maybe take apart a little bit more the expectations for growth, especially on the engine side in HPMC this year in terms of, A, the programs that'll be driving it, and then B, kind of where the products that will be driving it more, whether it's more on the specialty alloy side, the forging side, and titanium, and kind of how the execution is going in those areas, and I guess what I'm getting at is kind of also how we can think about the margin progression in HPMC and when we can get back on a track of kind of ascending margins in that business.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure. So I'll take a start at it, and then I'll let Don add some color here at the end. You mentioned titanium, and you mentioned engine. So I'm going to start broadly here, and we can narrow it down to make sure that I get your question completely answered. So as we think about engine growth, I believe is where you started, we saw about 9% growth in 2024 over 2023. And I'd say we are anticipating similar growth as we go into 2025. We're seeing that in both materials as well as forging. I'd say MRO is driving quite a bit of activity. And we're seeing a lot of that, especially in our forged products business, where the hot section of the engine, we're making those discs. They've got the highest backlog that we've had, I think, ever over a year of lead time for parts.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

A lot of that growth is coming, as I said, from MRO, the shop visits, the engine upgrades that are being made across all of the different OEMs, as well as the work that Pratt & Whitney's doing. That we're partnering with them to continue to ramp up our production to support their accelerated shop visit program. I think I mentioned in the prepared remarks, our revenue is up 3x in 2024 just for the GTF program. And we hit full run rate in Q4 of that ramp increase on parts for them. And we're expecting to see full year 2025, a 50% increase. Again, all of this is being supported broadly by the ISO capacity increase. If you remember, we did an upgrade to our fourth ISO press that was online. We had 32% of ISO output in 2024.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

As I said, we're hitting full run rates on that press and overall. And so we're going to see continued growth for the full of 2025. And we've been focusing on downstream bottlenecks around ultrasonic testing, which is an industry constraint kind of across the board. But with our minimal capital investment, as well as investing in qualified technicians and training, we've increased that over 50%. And so really reducing cycle time, increasing throughput in the shop there. So overall, engine demand's strong. We continue to see it kind of across the board, especially from MRO. I think I'd say I'm hearing kind of 40, 50, 60% of their order demands are being driven by MRO today. Now, you mentioned titanium. Just briefly, there is titanium that's included with that. We do have our new EB-2 Melter that's coming online in Washington. We are commissioning today.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

We're waiting on final permit approvals because we do have customer commitments for that asset. And so we're anxious to get going and start qualifying that asset. Titanium, I think a little bit as looking at the airframe market and as that starts to ramp, I think Airbus is very stable, and we're anticipating that going into 2025. You heard from Boeing, their growth. They're on track with the 737, and we anticipate that will continue to ramp as we get into the back half of the year. I think the one area I'm keeping an eye on is wide bodies. I think both airframers have talked about ramping in 2026 and increasing the build rates. And we're starting to see some of that activity. And we'd love to see that order activity come in in the back half of the year. So pretty strong demand on engines.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Airframe, I'd say, is a little more muted, flat to slightly up in the first half of the year, for sure. And then as they gain momentum going into the back half and as the wide bodies start to hopefully ramp and they hit those build rates that they've advertised, we'll see that additional order rate come in. And Don, I don't know if you want to share anything on margins.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

I would be happy to do that. So as Kim said, really strong broad-based demand around jet engine, which is helping drive growth. And you can see the impact of that on our margin profile as you look at 2025, Seth. So the way to think about our margin profile for HPMC for 2025, I would expect that, and I think I mentioned this Q1, that we would see the margins in the kind of 20%-21% kind of range. And then you're going to see those ramp up to north of 23% as the year progresses. And then we continue to see that expansion. Well, what's driving that increase in margin? It's all the dynamics we've talked about in the past. Number one, we're seeing this broad-based demand. We have a position with all of the major jet engine OEMs.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

So we get tailwinds around the MRO. We get tailwinds around the builds. As the wide body build rates ramp, that's something that we're going to meaningfully participate in. That means that our volumes are increasing, but also increasing is our absorption. And then we get the favorable mix impact. So we've talked in the past about expectations that the HPMC margins should be north of 25%. We clearly believe that's true. I don't expect that we're going to get there in 2025. But as we get into 2026 and head toward 2027, that is absolutely one of the objectives. And we believe we've got the underlying reasons that will drive us to that level.

Seth Seifman
Seth Seifman
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay. Okay. Great. Thanks. That was a long one, long question on my part. So I'll leave it there for this morning. But thank you.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Sure.

Seth Seifman
Seth Seifman
Analyst at JPMorgan

Sure.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Thanks, Seth.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Gautam Khanna from TD Cowen. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Gautam Khanna
Gautam Khanna
Analyst at TD Cowen

Yes. Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Good morning.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Good morning.

Gautam Khanna
Gautam Khanna
Analyst at TD Cowen

Was wondering if you could provide some context around the customer concessions, given we think of this pricing environment to be pretty strong for suppliers like ATI. What specifically led to those, and does that speak to any incremental pricing pressure broadly? And then I have a follow-up.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Yeah. Let me answer that question. First, I wouldn't describe them as concessions. As you can imagine, Gautam, we have a robust portfolio of LTAs. And on a daily basis, we're having conversations with our customers on all sorts of terms. And it's not just price. It's term. It's mix. It's many different dynamics. And it happened that this quarter, we had a charge that we took related to some of those discussions. Now, also keep in mind, when we're dealing with our customers and addressing changes in contracts, sometimes those contracts can impact the current period, but it does not mean that you're detrimented or giving up value in the future. As a matter of fact, it's quite the contrary for us. When we talk about changing contracts and making amendments to key terms, it is always with the intent of improving our position for the long run.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

The way to think about this, we won't share specifics around those conversations, but I would say don't view this as a negative indicator for our position, our strength of demand on our business, or the strong negotiating position that we have with our customers. Don't look at it in that way. It would be an incorrect way to interpret it. What I would also say is you should not expect to see a charge like this anywhere on a recurring basis. This would be something I wouldn't expect to see again just because of the unique circumstances that resulted in this charge. Does that help?

Gautam Khanna
Gautam Khanna
Analyst at TD Cowen

That's helpful context. Absolutely. Yes. And just a quick follow-up. I know the guidance assumes no work stoppages. Just curious if you could give us an update on how far along you are on the union contract negotiation. Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure. Yeah. Sure. Discussions are ongoing. They began in January. They're very constructive and positive so far, so we remain confident that we're going to reach an agreement that rewards our employees as well as maintaining our competitiveness. I think they're progressing well, and we're having good dialogue on a weekly basis. They're including a large group of employees so that we're making sure that we're considering all the needs, and so again, I'm not anticipating any work stoppage. We've not planned for one in our guidance, and I'm looking forward to getting to an agreement with our employees for a fair contract for them, as well as maintaining that competitiveness I mentioned.

Gautam Khanna
Gautam Khanna
Analyst at TD Cowen

Thank you, guys.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Richard Safran from Seaport Research Partners. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Richard Safran
Richard Safran
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Thanks. Kim, Don, Dave, good morning, Kim.

Operator

Morning.

Richard Safran
Richard Safran
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

If I heard you right, I think you mentioned something about share gains. We're always interested in new customers, new long-term agreements. So I want to know if you could discuss two related things. First, new long-term agreements with new customers, and then how you think that's going to impact capacity utilization.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure. So in the summer, we announced $4 billion in new customer commitments. As I look at that, that was predominantly on the nickel side. Think about half of that in the rest of this decade will come through in orders and commitments. From a standpoint, we are continuing to negotiate. There are several large contracts that are out there right now. We're making good progress. We've locked up a couple that I can't share a lot of those details yet because we haven't talked about them publicly. But from a capacity standpoint, we're in a good position to support these commitments that are coming. A lot of our conversations with our customers are really around today, are really around what is that demand going to be as we get to the back half of this decade and into 2030s.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

So we are starting those discussions around capacity, growth expectations, and builds. So for the rest of this decade, as I said, we're making good progress. I mentioned in the past, we're on every program across the industry with each customer. I'd say our relationships with RTX has really grown, not just with Pratt, but the overall company. So we're continuing, I think, to gain share, to gain relationships, working on next-generation products. And our capacity is well aligned to support that.

Richard Safran
Richard Safran
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Okay. Thanks. On defense, as a follow-up, a bit of a standout in the fourth quarter, up 38% sequentially. And you had an 11% decline in 3Q. And I thought that was related to titanium armor plate, but you didn't even mention that. So I thought maybe you could discuss this a bit more. I'm wondering if we're now looking at more of a sustainable higher run rate for defense sales here.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Yeah. I appreciate you asking about that. I do agree. We did have a very good quarter for defense. And I anticipate, again, depending where the administration goes, some of that increase in the fourth quarter came from some of the volatility you're seeing in a geopolitical space where some of our partners are looking to bring in material and ramp some of their growth rates. As you mentioned, we do have participation on the ground vehicles as well as nuclear naval applications. And so both of those have been very active. I'd say the $200 billion that Congress is talking about possibly increasing defense spending in the next two fiscal years, when you look at the white paper on that, it's earmarked and targeted to go to programs. Over 50%, maybe 60% of that is earmarked to go into programs that we participate and materials are in.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

So I do think, especially given the volatility we're seeing on trade and geopolitical, that there is this whole focus around peace through strength. And we're also seeing a really strong pull from some of our European counterparts where they're rearming as well in response to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. So yes, we did see an uptick. We're expecting to see that number go up, maybe 7% as we go into 2025. So we're expecting to see additional growth. And that's without this additional spending. If that were to come to fruition, that would be an additional tailwind for us as well.

Richard Safran
Richard Safran
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Philip Gibbs
Philip Gibbs
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey. Good morning.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Good morning, Phil.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Good morning.

Philip Gibbs
Philip Gibbs
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, Kim and Don. Was there any revenue catch-up in the fourth quarter from some of the third quarter issues? I remember there were some operational issues and some hurricane impacts. So was there a timing issue associated with some of the shipments perhaps going out in the fourth quarter and making up for some of the third quarter deficit?

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

So I'm going to take that one. The short answer is yes. We did see some of that, as you pointed out, with the operational challenges that we had in Q3. Also, there were some bottlenecks, if you recall. Back in Q3, we had some material that was toward the end of the production and shipping process that was held up right at the end due to things like hurricanes, right? And so we saw a release of some of that. So yep, you would have seen some of that benefit our Q3. It's one of the reasons I would say we overperformed a bit from a top-line standpoint. Magnitudes, probably think in terms of $20 million or something in that range, plus or minus.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

But there was another element that I would also point out because as you look at our revenue performance in Q4, it was very good, reflected order patterns that were very positive. Part of those order patterns reflected that when the Boeing work stoppage ended and the supply chain started to become more confident, we started seeing some of our customers more on the jet engine side say, "Hey, we want to take some of the material that's ready and was intended to ship in Q1, and we'd like to see that. We want to see that in our inventory by the end of the year. We want it in position for the impending ramp." And so the way to think about that was probably something in the range of $25 million-$30 million of revenue that moved from Q1 into Q4. And those are positives to the top line.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

If you're following it to the bottom line, we did have some less than favorable mix involved with the revenue in the quarter that took some of the heat off of those additional revenues as they dropped through. But still, those are the dynamics you want to think about when you see that $1.17 billion of Q4 revenue.

Philip Gibbs
Philip Gibbs
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thank you. And when you all talked about the $18 million benefit to EBITDA and the oil and gas rights, one, was that in AA&S? And I would assume that was all gain or credit and no revenue associated with it. And if that's correct, what was the positive earnings impact from that?

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

So, for the $18 million, so the $18 million had two components, just to make sure we're talking about the same thing. So the $18 million that related to the oil and gas gain, that was booked at the corporate level as a gain, so not as any revenue whatsoever. Then the other part of the $18 million we mentioned related to tax credits that the IRS had changed their or updated their rules related to their recognition of those credits. They're above-the-line credits. That represented $10.4 million of out-of-period. And that $10.4 million was recorded in AA&S, and it would have been recorded not as revenue, but as a reduction to expense.

Philip Gibbs
Philip Gibbs
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. So out of the $18 million, $10.4 million of it was this IRS credit, and the remainder, the $7.6 million, would have been the oil and gas gain. Is that correct?

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Yeah. Broad strokes. Yep. Yeah. And the oil and gas gain, I mean, we were kind of rounding some of the numbers, right? But the oil and gas gain for the quarter was $8 million. For the full year, by the way, it was $11 million, which there are things to get excited about. One of the things we get excited about is the redeployment of capital. Selling assets like that, those gas rights are a great example of redeploying capital into more value-added activities. So that's just a side note.

Philip Gibbs
Philip Gibbs
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you so much.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

All right.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Andre Madrid from BTIG. The line is now open. Please go ahead.

Andre Madrid
Andre Madrid
Analyst at BTIG

Kim, Don, good morning.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Good morning.

Andre Madrid
Andre Madrid
Analyst at BTIG

Let's see. Looking back on some of what you've outlined before, I think roughly three-quarters of your zirconium supply comes from China. How should we think about the potential impact of tariffs there, especially just with relations with China moving forward? I mean, is this anything that we should see as a risk, or are you actively seeking ways to diversify away, or if that's even possible?

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Yeah. Thank you. Yes. So not quite three quarters, but it is a mixture between a material from China and then a material that comes from a couple of other sources. So yes, we have been working, especially with our customer, on the program at identifying other sources. And we have identified some second sources so that we could use that to offset if the material becomes difficult to receive. I think tariffs, we've been paying tariffs on this material. I do think we've been working. And some of that uptick you saw in the fourth quarter was us getting into position with our customer to be able to be prepared depending on how this volatile situation continues to evolve. And I'd say the third thing that we're doing is we have been, and we're going to continue to place a physical hedge.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

We are bringing in material ahead of this kind of ongoing trade discussions back and forth between us and China, and so we're doing many things, I think, to offset that. Fundamentally, it won't stop demand. It would have some impact on production. It would have some impact if we were unable to get any material, but I do think we've got other sources that will allow us to continue to get that and continue to produce. It's just going to be a matter of what is the volatility in the supply and the pricing over here in the next few months and maybe going into the year.

Andre Madrid
Andre Madrid
Analyst at BTIG

Super helpful, Kim. Thank you. And then, I guess, sticking on just material supply, how much recycled material from your operations are you able to reuse? I assume it's also varied depending on the specific material, but any other there would be helpful.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

That is a good question because it does vary across the materials. It is something that we're pushing. So it's a pretty high percentage when you think about titanium in particular. I'd say anywhere from 50%-75% of the materials that we use in our melting operations are coming from recycle or revert and the recycle stream coming back in. On the zirconium side, that is something, especially on hafnium as well, that we've been really pushing because it is in such high demand. Prices are very, very high today. So we've been working with the chip manufacturers, the precursors, manufacturers to develop revert and recycle stream so that we can recapture that and put it back into good product. And they've been very supportive of those activities.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

On the nickel side as well, I'd say we run pretty high blend rates on that, and there's a pretty robust recycle loop. So generally, if I step back from it, it's anywhere from 30%-75% of our products at any one time could be made with scrap and recycled materials. Obviously, we make those decisions based on availability and pricing, and we try to adjust to get the best optimized blend for our customers. So yes, it is something that we're continuing to drive, though, both from a footprint standpoint and a green standpoint as well as cost and availability.

Andre Madrid
Andre Madrid
Analyst at BTIG

Thanks for the detail. Really appreciate it, Kim. I'll jump back in. Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Yeah. Hey. Good morning. I wanted to ask about the operational disruptions I know you identified. And one of them is solidly in the rearview mirror, but there was one that was going to trickle into Q2. So can you just remind us where that stands and also any updated measures to kind of keep ensuring that the operations are smoothly running? Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure. Sure. I'll take that one. Let me address that question in two parts that you asked there. One is just to give an update on the Q3 status and the challenges that we face towards the end of the quarter. And then secondly, more broadly, how we're investing in our operations to continually improve reliability and productivity. So to your first point, Q3, we did experience several challenges, many of them towards the end of the quarter that made it difficult for us to fully recover. But the team did a nice job at resolving the nickel VIM melts issues in the VIM shop. And these are behind us today. The shop is operational, stable. And in fact, some of the engineered solutions I talked about last quarter that we put into place are allowing us to exceed targets and post new records. The second is the batch anneal.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

As expected, as we communicated, and as you mentioned, this is targeted to be completed in Q2. It is on track, but those repairs are in progress and ongoing. The team did a nice job there as well at putting in place outside processors to help us restore flow and continue to get the material flowing until the fix is completed. Both of those are stable. We're continuing to work on the batch anneal, and we still expect that to be back online in the second quarter. The second point around just how are we thinking about this from a broad maintenance standpoint. As you mentioned, routine maintenance happens all the time, every quarter, in different areas of operations. These outages are incorporated into our guidance, and the team's always working to reduce that downtime to make it more effective for preventative maintenance and more broadly.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

We are continuing to invest in reliability, as you mentioned, and preventative maintenance programs. This has been an ongoing priority for us and is in a reaction to the recent issues, and a big part of this is going to be the asset redeployment that we sold some assets that Don just talked about here a moment ago, some with the oil and gas rights, one with an operating asset, and redeploying those into growth, reliability, and debottlenecking. And so we're continuing to invest in technology, engineered solutions, the use of artificial intelligence, which I talked about a little bit in my prepared remarks, to really put in sensors and automation that allow us to predict when equipment seems to be drifting when we start to see issues and then eliminate those equipment issues proactively as they occur, so there's a lot of great work.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

I mentioned some of the records that the teams are achieving. I do think this is an ongoing focus. We've been talking about debottlenecking. We've been talking about reliability. I think each quarter we're continuing to improve and get momentum there. And I will say the last quarter has been very stable operationally, and the team's doing a nice job. And you can start to see some of these results coming through.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. That's great to hear. I wanted to ask a follow-up. I know we've been talking a lot about tariffs, and for all we know, this will all get resolved really quickly. But Europe has been also mentioned.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

We can help.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

I just wanted to. It's hard to predict. But with Europe, I just wanted to ask if there were tariffs on Europe and if there were retaliatory tariffs, how do you think about those? And even if you have any thoughts on the likelihood, it would be great. Thanks.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

I'll take your second question. The likelihood is hard to predict. I think the likelihood is high that there will be some discussion from our president and administration of some tariffs. I think he's indicated that, right, as he's talked, and I've seen statements. So will those come to fruition? Will they be implemented? In what way and at what level? That's hard to predict. I do think we are in a good position, similar to the tariffs that he was talking about with our near partners here with Canada and Mexico. We've dual-sourced as far as incoming materials, and we do have those pass-through mechanisms in place in those contracts as well. And so, again, it was very important we focused on passing through inflation and making sure that we captured things like tariffs as well as building tariff language into our contracts.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

So I'll give our legal department a few props there. They did a nice job at anticipating some things that could be coming on the horizon. And so I do think we're in a good position to be able to respond to probably a changing situation. I think the one comment I'll make is that I am monitoring the relationship between Russia and the U.S. and, frankly, Russia and the rest of the world. So that dynamic is another one that we're going to continue to watch. I don't see significant impacts in 2025, but depending on how that evolves, there could be impacts further out in the quarter. I'm sorry, not in the quarter, but in this decade.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. Thanks again.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Scott Deuschle from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Scott Deuschle
Scott Deuschle
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Hey. Good morning. Don, is the elevated CapEx for 2025 a pull forward of future CapEx, or is this the level we should run rate going forward?

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

I wouldn't run rate. Actually, I appreciate you asking the question. We've been very, very consistent in terms of what we've communicated as the expectation for capital investment. So going to $270 million this year is really a reflection of a couple of things. First of all, it's still a part of that on average $200 million a year. As a matter of fact, if you go into the appendix of the presentation deck for today's call, you're going to see we added a schedule. And that schedule shows you how we calculate whether or not we're on track to that $200 million commitment for capital investment for growth and reliability and maintenance. And what you'll see in that calculation is we first put out our $200 million per year target in 2022. I reiterated that in 2023.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

If you look at the schedule that we show, it shows that rolling average, rolling annual average for CapEx, and it is since 2022, it averages in that $184 million, I believe, $182-$184 million. So we are absolutely within the range of the guidance that we've given. I do view the $270 million as an increase above what you would normally describe as gross CapEx. Keep in mind, though, we're redeploying the proceeds from asset sales that we executed in 2024. And a lot of that was late 2024. We're going to take that capital, and we're going to put it into higher returning, higher value uses. And that is largely going to be through CapEx investment. And so it's been a part of our key strategy.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

It happened that the proceeds from asset sales in 2024 were higher than we typically see, but it's still part of the same strategy, and we still expect the same kind of return profile, which is north of 30% on those investments. So it's all holding together so as you look out into the future, what you should expect is past 2025, you're going to see a similar pattern for us as we keep that commitment around spending something in the range of $200 million on average for CapEx annually. Does that help?

Scott Deuschle
Scott Deuschle
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Yeah. That's great. Thank you. And then, Kim, just on the jet engine side, are you starting to see a healthier balance of wide-body jet engine growth at this point in the cycle, or is most of the jet engine growth you're seeing still on the narrow-body side?

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

As I think about it, it's been probably more active on the single aisle. We are starting to see some pulls. We've had some conversations at the end of last year. I do think the engine OEMs are getting ready for the wide-body ramp. We have heard indications of increased order rates this year as those pulls keep coming. But I would say probably the most predominant demand signal that we're seeing today is really around MRO and the shop visits and the upgrades for licensing issues on all the programs. And again, it really shows up when you look at our forged products business with their lead times out over a year. It's probably the largest backlog that they've had in their history. And as I'm talking with the OEMs and they're sharing, a large percentage of their demand is from MRO, kind of 40%, 50%, 60%.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

They're not forecasting that to drop, certainly not this year, but in the next few years. I would expect, like I said, I'm watching if the wide bodies start to work towards that step change. I think I heard this week at least one airframe talk about preparing for that step rate change that we'll start to see those orders being placed and being firmly committed rather than just talking about reserve capacity.

Scott Deuschle
Scott Deuschle
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then just to clarify, are wide-body jet engine sales typically higher margin than narrow-body jet engine sales for similar products, or is it pretty similar? Just trying to get a sense if you do get that wide-body jet engine recovery, if that's beneficial to your incremental margins in the future. Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Yeah. I would say maybe not as related to wide-body versus single aisle engines, but the materials that go into those wide-body engines are very differentiated. And so we would expect to see a slight uptick in margins given those materials are very difficult to make. A lot of them are powdered alloys. And so you're going to see that that is going to be an accretive to our margin.

Scott Deuschle
Scott Deuschle
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Josh Sullivan from The Benchmark Company. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Josh Sullivan
Josh Sullivan
Analyst at Benchmark

Hey. Good morning.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Good morning.

Don Newman
Don Newman
EVP and CFO at ATI

Good morning.

Josh Sullivan
Josh Sullivan
Analyst at Benchmark

Can you just, Kim, can you just expand on the comments about Russia you just mentioned? What do you see as the scenarios if the Ukrainian deal is reached? How should we think of that headline, obviously, potential titanium supply returning versus what you actually think will evolve in the titanium market? And then maybe conversely, I guess, are there any exotic minerals from Russia that might be helpful for ATI?

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Yeah, so there's lots of chatter and talk about specifically VSMPO coming back into the markets and providing titanium parts and forgings. I'd say from our perspective, as we're looking at it, we're monitoring both relations and how the US reacts and, frankly, how the European players react because they may be different at their acceptance and their rate of normalizing relations. As I look at it, there is going to be, and I recognize there's going to be a requalification period that's going to take some time. Even once relations have normalized and things are starting to progress, there's going to be this requalification that we have to work through, and what I'm hearing is that a lot of the expertise that were there that helped lead these programs, lead these operations, are no longer there.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

And so I do think it's going to take some time for that to re-ramp and come back online and meet the high standards from a quality standpoint. So in the short term for 2025, I don't see that as a significant threat. I do think it's something to monitor as it continues to evolve. And we'll see how rapidly they're able to get that expertise and start restarting their operations and requalifying. But I do think there will be some significant qualifications that need to be redone. As far as a benefit for us, yeah. I mean, Russia was a very large source of nickel for us in the past, and it's something that we moved away from and stopped purchasing there. So there could be some benefits of Norilsk coming back into the market and providing materials. And again, it was very high quality.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

It was a good relationship. They were a good supplier in the past. So that could be a positive for us. So another thing that we're continuing to look at. I'd say the last thing just to mention, as I think about the supply chain, I do believe, and I shared it a couple of times today around our resiliency to trade and tariffs that we've built dual sourcing and de-risked our supply chain. I do believe across the industry that all of the players have learned that lesson. And it's a very recent lesson around making sure you've de-risked and you've got dual sources and you can stay nimble in the face of uncertainty and changing times. And so I'm not sure that I see the industry going back to as heavy of a reliance on any one source, be it VSMPO or any other one.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

So, I don't know if the dynamic, they may come back in, it may normalize, but it's not going to go back to what it was because I think that lesson has been firmly learned by all of us here in the supply chain.

Josh Sullivan
Josh Sullivan
Analyst at Benchmark

Got it. Thank you for that. And just to pick one last one in here, thanks for taking it. Just on the aero light markets, what do lead times look like, just given the very long-cycle nature of those markets?

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

I believe those lead times are about six to nine months on most of those products. There's very high demand. The specialty energy nuclear products, I would say that demand continues to grow, especially I know there's a lot of energy around data centers and energy needs. But the resurgence of nuclear are having those come back pretty strongly globally. And from obviously electronics, chip production, especially with the investments here in the U.S., and from a global standpoint, lead times are very long kind of across the whole markets. So Aero light, I said, is great. I'm very excited about the growth there. I think the team's doing a great job. We're working to get more capacity, but lead times do continue to be very long.

Josh Sullivan
Josh Sullivan
Analyst at Benchmark

Great. Thank you for the time.

Kim Fields
Kim Fields
CEO at ATI

Sure. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks. Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. So I'll now hand back to David for closing remarks.

David Westin
David Westin
VP of Investor Relations at ATI

Yes. Thank you very much for your time today on our fourth quarter call. Please feel free to reach out to myself and Clay on the investor relations team with any follow-up questions, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Executives
    • David Westin
      David Westin
      VP of Investor Relations
    • Kim Fields
      Kim Fields
      CEO
    • Don Newman
      Don Newman
      EVP and CFO
Analysts
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