Ericsson Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Ericsson EPS Results

• Actual EPS: N/A
• Consensus EPS: $0.23
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.44

Ericsson Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: $7.16 billion
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Ericsson Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 1/23/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 3:00AM ET

Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) AB is a Swedish multinational telecommunications equipment and services company headquartered in Stockholm. Founded in 1876 by Lars Magnus Ericsson, the company designs, develops and sells infrastructure, software and services that enable mobile and fixed-line networks worldwide. Ericsson serves a global customer base that includes mobile network operators, enterprise customers and public-sector organizations across Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa.

The company’s core activities center on building and modernizing network infrastructure, with a particular focus on radio access networks (RAN), core network software, cloud-native solutions and network management systems. Ericsson provides end-to-end offerings that include network design and deployment, managed services, system integration, operations support (OSS/BSS), edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT) platforms. In addition to equipment and services, Ericsson maintains an extensive patent portfolio and licensing business tied to cellular standards, which contributes to its role in the broader telecommunications ecosystem.

Throughout its history Ericsson has played a central role in the evolution of telephony and mobile communications. Notable milestones include its long-standing participation in mobile standards development and a consumer handset joint venture with Sony from 2001 to 2012. The company has also addressed regulatory and compliance matters in recent years, including resolving investigations related to historical conduct. Ericsson is publicly listed in Sweden and trades American Depositary Receipts on the Nasdaq under the symbol ERIC. Börje Ekholm has served as CEO since 2017, leading the company through a multi-year transformation toward software- and services-led offerings and expanded 5G deployments globally.

Ericsson Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Board is returning capital after strong cash generation — proposing an increased dividend of SEK 3 per share and a buyback program up to SEK 15 billion (total ~SEK 25 billion), while ending the year with SEK 61.2 billion net cash.
• Positive Sentiment: Margin and cost progress — Q4 and full‑year adjusted EBITDA around 18% and adjusted gross margin ~48%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of margin expansion and tracking close to the 15–18% long‑term target (normalized for the iconectiv gain).
• Positive Sentiment: Growth diversification — Q4 organic sales grew 6%, driven by Cloud & Software, 5G Core, mission‑critical networks and enterprise initiatives; management expects these areas and AI‑driven use cases to support modest mid‑single‑digit growth even if RAN remains flat.
• Negative Sentiment: Near‑term headwinds — company expects a flattish RAN market in 2026, material currency headwinds and elevated restructuring (including announced Swedish headcount reductions), which could pressure sales timing and OpEx in the short term.
• Neutral Sentiment: Operational and strategic risks/opportunities — supply‑chain and memory cost pressure is being managed through supplier relations and inventory actions; management remains hardware‑agnostic on silicon and notes IPR renewals and lumpier large contracts create upside but also timing uncertainty.

Presentation

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Hello everyone and welcome to the presentation of Ericsson's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results. With me here in the studio today are Börje Ekholm, our President and CEO, and Lars Sandström, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, we'll have a short presentation followed by Q&A, and in order to ask a question, you need to join the conference by phone. Details can be found in today's earnings release and on the investor relations website.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Please be advised that today's call is being recorded and that today's presentation may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current expectations and certain planning assumptions which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to factors mentioned in today's press release and discussed in the conference call. We encourage you to read about these risks and uncertainties in our earnings report as well as in our annual report.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

I'll now hand the call over to Börje and Lars for their introductory comments.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Thanks, Daniel. So good morning everyone and thanks for joining us today. It was a strong end of the year as we executed with discipline and made solid progress against our strategic priorities. We are building a more resilient Ericsson. We expanded EBITDA margins year-on-year for the ninth consecutive quarter and we're getting closer to our long term target of 15%-18% EBITDA margin. And we ended the year with a net cash position of over SEK 61 billion. Our cost initiatives are just one component of our actions to structurally improve margins and cash flow. And you have seen that we have reduced the headcount, for example, by 5,000 over the past year. And we expect to continue reducing headcount going forward.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

And last week we announced some initiatives we're taking in Sweden as part of a global effort we do to keep cost efficiency in our business. With the operational improvements we've implemented over the past few years, they are now getting increasingly visible in the P&L. And we had another 48% gross margin quarter. Now in Q4, the EBITDA margin was 18% both for the quarter and the full year. And that means that we are tracking very close to our long term financial targets after normalizing for the about 3 percentage point benefit from the iconectiv gain. And now going forward we expect to see improving operating leverage as our top line accelerates. That we could see in Q4 now that the underlying demand environment for mobile networks remain actually flattish. But it is encouraging that we had an organic growth of 6% during Q4.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

And the reason for this is that over the past few years we have invested in a number of growth opportunities and growth initiatives like 5G Core, Mission Critical Networks and enterprises. And I'll expand a bit more on this. In my view, we're actually entering a very exciting era of what we can call hyper connectivity. So now we're starting to see everything being connected. I would say Ericsson is really well placed for this paradigm shift and I believe we have the right strategy to win. To date, AI investments have been focused on models, semiconductors, data centers, etc. For sure, these are really critical. But the real economic value will actually come in AI applications and devices. So think about drones, humanoids, could be connected glasses, XR glasses, could be instantaneous or simultaneous translation services.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

You have a number of these things, all these new type of use cases. AI use cases will really change the nature of traffic with much more demand for uplink and low latency, and it has to be resilient and trusted, so when you think about this new world with AI going into the physical world, if you call it that kind of a physical AI, those applications and use cases will be distributed, but more importantly, they will also typically be mobile, so they will require advanced wireless connectivity, so best effort connectivity, Wi-Fi, 4G and I would even say 5G non-standalone will simply not be enough. Instead we will require 5G standalone today and then later on will require 6G, but this new world will also require better mid-band coverage to get the right performance of the network.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

And I'll take just one example and you see China having a 10x denser grid than the rest of the world. And I would say that's one of the reasons why many are saying China is a formidable competitor in AI today as they are moving into AI applications. So at this point in time, it's a very exciting time. Our strategy is to lead in mobile networks with high performance autonomous and programmable networks that are 5G native. And at the same time scale this mobile platform to new areas like Mission Critical Enterprise Solutions, but also providing tools to developers. So now let me go briefly through some of the progress we made against our strategic initiatives during the last year. Through our high performing programmable and autonomous network, we're enabling our CSP customers to deliver differentiated performance and create new applications and use cases to monetize.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

And when you think about differentiated performance, it's actually creating dedicated performance for the application you have at hand. And during the year we actually signed several key agreements with frontrunner customers like Telstra, Vodafone. But we also made critical inroads in the important Japanese market with all leading operators. These advanced networks that we're building together with frontrunner customers will be key to monetize and scale the AI opportunity. In parallel, we focused on scaling the mobile platform to new use cases and sectors. The most mature new use case is fixed wireless access that during 2025 actually reached 150 million global subscribers. And typically, and most often they have better customer satisfaction than other access technologies like fiber, for example.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

And now, as you've heard me say earlier, we're also starting to see traction within Mission Critical applications. This we think is a key growth opportunity for us going forward. During 2025, we executed many new agreements in the public safety sector and we're also targeting national security and defense operations.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

On the enterprise side, we're continuing to strengthen our position. The market for Network API is actually starting to develop. In 2025, Vonage was first to offer aggregated access to Network APIs across all three major U.S. carriers. These advanced APIs included advanced fraud detection and we have significant customer interest. Today, our joint venture Aduna onboarded and achieved full coverage in five countries including the U.S., Spain, Germany, Canada and the Netherlands. In Enterprise Wireless Solutions, we're seeing the market for Private 5G starting to industrialize. It's still though early days, but we continue to see growth in our wireless WAN solutions. That was partly offset by lower sales in Private 5G. It's still a developing market here.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Before passing on to Lars to go through a bit more on the numbers, I'd like to take a moment to just go through our capital allocation strategy. Our top priority is to invest for technology leadership and we expect this to be largely organic. We don't really see any need for large acquisitions going forward as we believe we have the assets needed to execute on our strategy. However, we expect to see some smaller potential tuck ins, but that will be smaller in nature. Our current very strong financial position offers scope for increased shareholder distributions. And as you have seen in this report, the board is proposing an increased dividend to SEK 3 per share and a buyback program of up to SEK 15 billion. That would be a total of SEK 25 billion to shareholders.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

This represents the largest shareholder distribution in our history and reflect our strong position and the board's confidence in our strategy. So Lars will now go through this as well as our financials.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

So over to you, Lars.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Alright, thank you, Börje. I will begin with some additional comments on the group before moving on to the segments. Net sales in Q4 totaled SEK 69.3 billion with organic sales growing 6% year-on-year and with growth in all segments. Sales grew in the market area Europe, Middle East and Africa and in Market Area South East Asia, Oceania and India. Market area Americas was broadly stable impacted by intense competition in Latin America offset by slight growth in North America driven by higher software growth and North East Asia declined. Reported sales decreased by 5% impacted by negative currency effect of SEK 6.8 billion. In Q4, adjusted gross income was SEK 33.2 billion including a currency headwind of SEK 3.6 billion.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Adjusted gross margin reached 48% as a result of our cost reduction measures and operational excellence in both Networks and Cloud Software and Services. On the cost side we made steady progress. Operating expenses excluding restructuring charges dropped SEK 20 billion to SEK 21.4 billion, around SEK 2 billion lower year over year. Of this, about half is currency and the rest is cost. Initiatives excluding FX, R&D remained broadly stable. Adjusted EBITDA was SEK 12.7 billion, up by SEK 2.4 billion, including a negative currency impact of SEK 2.5 billion and the EBITDA margin was up around 4 percentage points to 18.3%. Behind this improvement is the good progress we've seen in terms of optimizing our operations and lowering our operating expenses.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Cash flow before M&A was SEK 14.9 billion driven by earnings and reduced net operating assets. As Börje has already highlighted. The Board will propose higher shareholder distributions following the good 2025 cash generation. Let's move on to the result. For the full year, net sales amounted to SEK 236.7 billion and organic sales grew by 2%. Growth in Americas and in Europe, Middle East and Africa was partly offset by declines in the other market areas.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

At the same time, reported sales decreased by 5% impacted by a negative currency effect of SEK 13.9 billion. The sales decline, which gives a significant volume impact on gross income, was more than offset by higher gross margins. Adjusted gross margin was 48.1% with support from cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiency. The result on adjusted gross income was an increase of SEK 2.5 billion to SEK 113.9 billion despite the negative currency impact of SEK 7.2 billion. Turning to operating costs excluding restructuring charges and impairments, operating expenses dropped to SEK 81.2 billion, which is SEK 7.4 billion lower than the prior year. Of this, about 2/3 come from our cost initiatives, mainly from SG&A and the rest is currency.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Adjusted EBITDA increased to SEK 42.9 billion and the margin was 18.1% or 14.9% excluding the capital gain from iconectiv. Net income for the full year was SEK 28.7 billion including the benefit from iconectiv and a gain from iconectiv. Cash flow before M&A was SEK 26.8 billion, a reduction of around SEK 13 billion compared to the prior year. In 2024, a strong working capital reduction contributed to higher operating cash flow. I'll cover cash flow more in detail here later.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Let's move to the segments. In Networks, sales decreased by 6% year over year to SEK 44.2 billion with a negative currency impact of SEK 4.4 billion. Organic sales increased by 4%. We saw organic growth in Market Area Europe, Middle East and Africa driven by Middle East and Africa. Sales also grew in Southeast Asia driven by Vietnam. Sales declined slightly in Americas due to continued price competition in Latin America. Sales were broadly stable in North America with continued healthy investment levels.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Sales also declined in Northeast Asia due to timing of network investments, and Networks' adjusted gross margin increased to 49.6% despite a higher share of service sales. The margin benefited from cost reduction actions and operational efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA, Networks was stable at SEK 10.1 billion despite the currency headwind of SEK 1.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to last year. And looking at the right-hand graph, the full-year adjusted gross margin reached 50% and stabilized at a new level, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7%.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Moving on to segment Cloud and Software and Services, sales increased by 3% year over year to SEK 20 billion despite the negative currency impact of SEK 1.8 billion. Organic sales grew by 12%, mostly driven by higher core sales across all market areas and timing of project deliveries. Adjusted gross margin came in at 44.3%, an improvement of around 5 percentage points compared to last year driven by a high share of software sales and continued delivery efficiency. Adjusted EBITDA increased to SEK 3.7 billion with a margin of 18.6% supported by the effective implementation of our strategic initiatives. Looking at the right-hand graph, the full-year adjusted gross margin was 43% and adjusted EBITDA margin 11.4%. These are both new high levels.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Enterprise sales stabilized on an organic basis in Q4, growing 2%. Reported sales decreased by 25% and that's an impact of the sale of iconectiv and currency. Global Communications Platform organically grew by 3% driven by an expansion in CPaaS. An adjusted gross margin declined to 52.1% driven by the iconectiv divestment. Adjusted EBITDA landed at minus SEK 1.1 billion improving by SEK 0.1 billion compared to last year despite the high restructuring impact.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Turning to free cash flow which was SEK 14.9 billion before M&A in the quarter and SEK 26.8 billion for the year, we deliver a cash flow to net sales of 11% for the year within our 9%-12% target. The decrease in cash flow year on year is due to very strong working capital reductions in 2024. Working capital in 2025 was broadly stable at historically low levels. Net cash increased sequentially by SEK 9.4 billion to SEK 61.2 billion. Return on capital employed in 2025 was 24.1% including the divestment gain while excluding it. Turning then to capital allocation during 2025 the board has undertaken a review of the balance sheet and the capital allocation principles. On the balance sheet we remain committed to an investment grade credit rating and maintaining a solid net cash position.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Turning next to the four capital allocation priorities. First, the top priority is to maintain a technology leadership through continued R&D investment to ensure customer confidence all times. Second, we are committed to a stable to progressive ordinary dividend. And third, as Börje mentioned, we remain selective with inorganic investments and finally, any excess cash will be distributed to shareholders. So for 2025 the board will propose an increased dividend of SEK 3 per share and a share buyback program of up to SEK 15 billion at the AGM. After adjusting for the total shareholder distribution of approximately SEK 25 billion, the 2025 net cash position is at a solid level considering future investment needs and the business outlook.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Next, I will cover the outlook. Global uncertainty remains with potential for further changes in tariffs and broader macroeconomic factors. The outlook assumes stable exchange rates and no tariff changes here. So for Networks we expect Q1 sales growth to be broadly similar to the three-year average quarter-on-quarter seasonality for Cloud Software and Services. We expect Q1 sales growth to be below the three-year average quarter-on-quarter seasonality and we expect Networks' adjusted gross margin to be in the range of 49%-51%. For Q1, and restructuring charges for the full year 2026 are expected to be at an elevated level with proposed headcount reductions recently announced in Sweden and continued actions across other markets.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

With that I hand back to you Börje.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Thanks, Lars. Today we have a very strong position and a very competitive portfolio in many markets. There will be a need to invest to keep network performance at a competitive level and as you've seen, we made critical inroads in many key markets during the year. For instance, in Japan in 2026. We're planning for a flattish RAN market, but expect growth to come from new areas. This means we will need to continue our efforts on operational efficiency and by doing so we can strengthen our company for varying market conditions. This will enable us to continue with critical investments in technology leadership, including increased R&D investments in defense and Mission Critical, while at the same time supporting our margins and cash flow generation.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Overall, as I mentioned before, we're entering a very exciting time where AI will move from a focus on data centers and large models to devices and applications. This will require advanced wireless connectivity, putting Ericsson in the middle of the next phase in the AI era. Our strategy is focused on making sure we capture this opportunity. We're doing it by providing the industry's best network for AI that enable differentiated services and new monetization opportunities. This includes both new use cases, including by exposing networking capabilities through network APIs, but also new sectors such as Mission Critical networks. This will allow us to capture a significant share of the value from connectivity and help drive growth for us as Ericsson.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

So if I draw this out a bit longer term, I believe we can have a model with a flattish mobile networks market, but with our investments in growth areas that basically we can see a modestly growing top line. So if you combine the operating leverage actually improving profitability in the enterprise segments as well as share buybacks, we should see a healthy growth in profit per share. To wrap up in 2025, we were laser focused on strategy execution and continue to take critical steps to position Ericsson for the future. We're unlikely to see growth in the RAN market this coming year, but our investments in Mission Critical 5G, Core and Enterprise will drive growth for the company. I would say it's exciting if you ask me.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

On that note, I also want to thank all my colleagues at Ericsson for a lot of great work. Thank you, team. With that, I think it's time for you, Daniel, to lead us through some Q&A.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks, Börje. We'll now move to the Q&A. As a reminder to ask a question, you'll need to press Star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you're streaming the webcast, please mute the webcast audio while asking a question to minimize any audio feedback. And as usual, if I can request one question per participant, please, so we have time to hear from as many of you as possible. Thanks. Okay, operator, we're ready to open the line for the first question.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

The first question today is going to come from the line of Simon Granath at ABG. Simon, please go ahead.

[Simon Granath, Partner and Equity Research Analyst at ABG]

Thank you, Daniel. And congrats, team Ericsson, for the solid results here on OpEx. I'd like to push a bit on the medium-term trajectory and the R&D balance with RAN demand looking broadly flattish into 2026 and OpEx growth largely reflecting salary inflation rather than volume. If we assume a similar demand environment into 2027 with 6G still later in this decade, how do you think about the risk of managing R&D and whether capabilities change too early? So simply on the midterm OpEx trajectory. Thanks.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Great. Midterm. When you look at the Opex levels that we have today and the structure we have, it's a question about working and investing, and we are already in 2025 and back and going into this year there are key strategic areas where we are investing and some other areas where we are taking other decisions. So I think, and that will also be how we will work going into 2027. Then of course there is a continuous cost inflation that we need to drive through productivity to ensure that we keep the right level here going forward as well, and when this big investment comes we will see. I think you will have to comment as well from your perspective.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Yeah, I think given the flattish market we're in, we will have to work continuously on the, I call it, R&D efficiency. But there is also a question of making sure we allocate to the right areas. This is why new areas like Mission Critical is actually critical to be part of as well as defense applications. So we believe that we can even in the flattish market actually have the right R&D level with the program and with the efforts we have in place. But it's as you note, it requires us to really be at the forefront of R&D efficiency as well. But you should not expect us to put it this way. We are not going to trade off technology leadership and we believe we can have technology leadership at this spend level even into 2027 and beyond.

[Simon Granath, Partner and Equity Research Analyst at ABG]

Thanks a lot. Thank you so much.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Moving to the next question, please. The next question is going to come from the line of Eric Rosenthal at SEB. Please go ahead, Eric.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Yes, sure. Good morning. Congratulations on the results here. So just Börje, you mentioned increasing investment in Defense in 2026 and Mission Critical was a key driver here in the quarter. I understand this is a good market for you right now, but can you please shed some light on how large the exposure is that you have currently in this area and what the size of the opportunities that you see out there, how large are they? Thank you.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

If we start in the end of discussing, first of all what we want to say here is in reality the investments we make in defense today is captured in the total R&D spend, and as we go forward we see that we probably need to increase that a bit, and the reason for that is we actually see the potential for a very sizable market in defense, given what the spending in the U.S. of course, but it's also the increased European spending on defense will make this into a fairly sizable market, and we see that market moving from what I would call dedicated solutions, kind of proprietary technology solutions into much more of 3GPP-enabled solutions, and the reason for that is simply that it's more cost-effective and it's going to be much better performance.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

We see actually the communication market in defense to be a sizeable opportunity that we want to make sure we're early on in. But there are also other applications. Think about defense from a broader perspective. The sensing capabilities of the solutions we have actually allows you to, for example, do drone detection. Think about the usefulness of that. And it can do detection of objects that are not connected. So it's basically, you know, maybe popular wording would be called the radar. These are major opportunities that we would say are really large that we want to position ourselves to go after. When you see us increasing spending, it's not, you know, I think part of it will be offset with other efficiency gains. But we want to say that we actually go after an opportunity here that we think is rather sizable.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Excellent, thanks.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks Eric. Moving to the next question please. The next question is going to come from the line of Jakob Bluestone at BNP. Please go ahead. Jakob, morning.

[Jakob Bluestone, Senior Equity Analyst at BNP Paribas]

Thanks for taking my question. I had a question around supply chain shortages. I'm wondering sort of broadly, are you seeing any issues that might hold back your ability to grow? And specifically can you comment on the impact of memory price increases? So what share of your bill of materials relates to memory chips? Do you hedge these? Can you pass on any price increases to customers? Thank you.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

When it comes to the supply chain, I think we are. We have worked for quite some time on resiliency, and when it comes, that is including then supply chain, so to say deliveries. So that is continuous work that we do. So but of course when it comes to the memory side, it has been quite a bit of noise around that, but I think we are in a good position of handling that as it looks for this year here, and on the pricing side it is a mix. Of course there is some impact. But also here it's really working close with our suppliers, also together with our customers to make sure that we are not squeezed in the middle here. So it's both ends here to work with.

[Jakob Bluestone, Senior Equity Analyst at BNP Paribas]

Can you maybe just expand? How have you avoided shortages? Is this just by building inventories, just given the sort of shortages?

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

It's part of how we work, but also to have good relations and long-term relationships with the different suppliers that we work with.

[Jakob Bluestone, Senior Equity Analyst at BNP Paribas]

Understood. Thanks.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks, Jakob. Moving to the next question please. The next question is going to come from the line of Andreas Joelsson at DNB. Please go ahead, Andreas.

[Andreas Joelsson, Analyst at DNB]

Good morning, everyone. Moving from the splendid operations to the buybacks, perhaps and if we assume that you make SEK 25 billion in free cash flow on a sustainable level, that is equal to the total remuneration to shareholders. So should we say that around SEK 45 billion is a net cash that you feel that you and the board feel is needed to run the operations?

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

I think as we mentioned there, the view is that it's important to have a solid net cash position, and we're coming out here with SEK 61.2 billion in net cash and a total distribution of around SEK 25 billion, and adjusting for that, we have given the business outlook that we see now, we see that it is a solid net cash position coming out of 2025, then when we come to next year then we will have a look again, of course, but the capital allocation principles are there and that are guiding us also going forward.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

And when you think about the business outlook, of course you need to think about geopolitics. You think about whether it's the question before tight supply chain, for example, and all of these factors reaches the conclusion that that was the right level. Now.

[Andreas Joelsson, Analyst at DNB]

Just as a follow up, is there any thinking from the board and from the management, given what you said before about growing EPS, that you would like to have a more long-term buyback program and making sure that you can achieve that?

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

I think this is the first time Ericsson now announces buyback program, so it is clearly a part of the toolbox for the board and the AGM and for the shareholders to decide upon.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Yeah, I think you would also say, Andreas, that it's intentional that it's launched as a buyback program and you also know the mandate for those are reviewed annually by the AGM. So this will be our hope and ambition. And to what is that? This will be a recurring thing, then the size will vary, of course, depending on how the outlook looks like.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks, Andreas.

[Andreas Joelsson, Analyst at DNB]

Thank you so much.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Moving to the next question, please. The next question is going to come from the line of Sandeep Deshpande at J.P. Morgan. Go ahead, Sandeep.

[Sandeep Deshpande, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Yeah, hi. My question is on the market in mobile networks overall. Has the market changed at all? I mean, we've heard about the EU restricting some of the high risk vendors, but at the same time you're seeing a greater price competition in Latin America. Maybe Börje, you can make some comments on how this market overall is progressing. Is the progress playing out in the world given the geopolitical situation?

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

A way to think about it, Sandeep, is we look at this market for the last two decades, right. And it's been flattish. So we like to think or plan for that type of market outlook. If it gets better, then we have a strong cost competitiveness, we get operating leverage. If it gets worse, we need to review that assumption.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Right.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

That's kind of the way we think about the business. Of course it varies what happens. Over the last few years, and I think we spoke about this a couple of quarters ago, that we saw increased competition in Latin America, we see it from time to time in other parts of the world, Southeast Asia, Africa, et cetera. That kind of comes and goes a bit. The thing that could be a positive is of course the high risk vendor discussion in the EU. That's a sizeable opportunity. If you think about the, you know, it's, I mean, we don't know exactly, but call the high risk vendor market presence in Europe to be a third to maybe up to 40% but around that as a guideline, that would be a sizeable revenue opportunity for trusted vendors. That could change at the same time.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Now it's a proposal, it has to go through the process, so this is something that's probably going to take 12-18 months before we really know the impact, so we're not factoring that in, but of course it is an upside opportunity and of course it is, I would say the toolbox the EU discussed or implemented quite some time ago, it's five-six years ago, has not been widely adopted, so it is a change in stance with the current proposal.

[Sandeep Deshpande, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Thank you, Börje.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks for the question, Sandeep. Moving to the next question please. The next question is coming from the line of Sébastien Sztabowicz at Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead, Sebastian.

[Sébastien Sztabowicz, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

Yeah, hello everyone and thanks for taking my question. On networks, how do you see the mix trending in the coming quarters? We are now seeing some stronger growth in Africa, Southeast Asia and lower dependence in the U.S. and maybe also in Japan and Korea. So just curious about the mix trend in networks and also at a broad level, what will be the puts and take to your gross margin in the coming quarters? Where do you see some upside or downward pressure? Thank you.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

I think single quarters will vary, but if you look a little bit on the underlying for 2026. North America, on healthy investment levels in the market and that we expect to continue during the year, and then when it comes to growth opportunities, there is an investment need in India and also in Japan where we have also in both these markets ensure that we have a good solid market position. So when the customers decide to invest, we should be able to capture on that. Europe rather stable. And then there are. We will see what happens in Latin America. There is opportunities there, but still quite tough competition for sure. Parts of Southeast Asia as well. So I think that's a little bit the balancing act.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

In Africa, we have had a couple of good quarters now with 5G, 4G and 5G rollouts and modernization activities and hopefully we can see that continue also going into this year. So that's a little bit the balance act on the market mix and then the puts and takes. There is a cost pressure in the group in the flat RAN market and continuous cost pressure on us, both in the people part, but also in material cost. So that we need to continuously work with. That's why we talk about then somewhat higher elevated levels on restructuring both that will impact both. So let's say OpEx, but also in the cost of goods sold. So that is necessary to offset this upward pressure on cost. So that is some of the puts and takes. Then you have the normal product mix but that will vary between quarters as always.

[Sébastien Sztabowicz, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

Okay, thank you.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks, Sébastien. Moving to the next question, please. Next question is going to come from the line of Felix Henriksson at Nordea. Please go ahead. Felix.

[Felix Henriksson, Associate Director and Equity Research at Nordea]

Hi, thanks for taking my question. It's relating to IPR. I think in the report you called out that you had a contract expiring with the Chinese smartphone vendor at the end of 2025. So I just wanted to ensure whether or not there are significant contract cliffs in 2026 that we should be aware of. And as a quick follow up to that, what is your level of conviction in being able to grow the SEK 13 billion annual run rate in IPR going forward? Thank you.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Normally, we try to give you that guiding point around the run rate coming out of the year around SEK 13 billion. When it comes to the contract, this is not a major impact, and we always, when we negotiate renew contracts, are targeting the best economic outcome, and that we will do as well this time. So, that could be some impact here. But that is then normally coming back with the renewal, so it should not impact the full year, so to say. And then, potential upsides are there. We are in settlement negotiations with one of our licensees, so that is hopefully coming into place this year. And then, there is the underlying opportunities around the pure smartphones when it comes to IoT, automotive, etc. That should support growth coming into this year as well. So, that's a little bit the pieces that will drive some opportunities.

[Felix Henriksson, Associate Director and Equity Research at Nordea]

Thank you.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks, Felix. Moving to the next question, please. Next question is going to come from the line of Ulrich Rathe at Bernstein. Please go ahead, Ulrich.

[Ulrich Rathe, Analyst at Bernstein]

Thanks very much. My question is on the bigger picture of the revenue outlook. So you're guiding for a flattish market and highlight the growth opportunities in Mission Critical and other areas. And now in the fourth quarter you delivered mid single digit organic growth which is taken with some excitement in the market today. Would you go as far as saying that something like mid single digit revenue growth is possible in a flattish RAN market with the growth opportunities in these new opportunity areas that you're highlighting? Or is this maybe a bit of a phasing effect here? I think you highlighted, particularly in CSPs, the deliveries, the delivery phasing. Just wondering what your bigger picture here is. Thank you.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

I think if you think about it from a little bit longer term perspective and it's going to fluctuate, right? But the size of the Mission Critical market and the Enterprise opportunity as well as 5G core that contributes here. 5G core. By the way, you should remember it's only about a quarter of all networks that are upgraded to standalone today. So there is a rather sizable opportunity there. So when you look at those outlooks, those individual pieces, they are large enough to drive a pretty nice long term growth. It's not going to be double digits as you say, so take that out.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

But it may be low to mid single digits and I think that's what makes me a bit excited is actually to think about it from that kind of at least some basic growth and you add on operating leverage on that, you add on what we're seeing on enterprise that we're going to get that to profitability and you combine that with share buyback, you actually get a very healthy growth profile. So I think there is something here that I think from a little bit longer term perspective is rather exciting.

[Ulrich Rathe, Analyst at Bernstein]

Very clear. Thank you very much.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks Ulrich. Moving to the next question, please. Next question is coming from the line of Sami Sarkamies at Danske Bank. Please go ahead, Sami.

[Sami Sarkamies, Senior Equity Analyst at Danske Bank]

Thanks. I have a question on your silicon strategy. Your competitor recently announced that they will start building products based on NVIDIA chips. You have also done some R&D work related to the use of GPUs. What is your take on the situation and do you see a role for NVIDIA in future RAN products?

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

You know, we selected a strategy several years ago to basically disaggregate the software and hardware and actually allow our software to run on pretty much any architecture. And of course here, you know, we can run on of course the x86, but it can run on GPUs. It can run on our proprietary silicon as well. And by the way, you could well see the TPU from Google. You could see what Qualcomm is coming with AMD, etc. So we wanted to be a bit independent of the selection of the hardware layer. The reason for doing that was that we felt it was the right strategy to give the customers the opportunity to choose what hardware layer they want to run on. And you know, today there are operators rolling out Cloud RAN that's on x86. In the future it may be different. So I think the--

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

I cannot comment on Nokia's decision, that's for them to comment on, but from my point of view, we wanted a very different strategy not to select the infrastructure layer today, but rather do that as we come closer towards AI RAN realization and 6G, then we can make an intelligent choice together with our customers, and we feel good about that strategy, but that also means that we're going to continue to work with the x86 ecosystem and the GPU ecosystem.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks for the question, Sami. Moving on to the next question please. The next question is going to come from the line of Didier Scemama at Bank of America. Please go ahead, Didier.

[Didier Scemama, Managing Director and Senior analyst at Bank of America]

Yeah, thanks Daniel. Good morning everyone. Sorry to come back to the point on memory and cost inflation. So I'm looking at your inventories, which are, you know, seasonally lower in Q4. So you seem to suggest that you are, you have adequate supply from your suppliers. Just can you elaborate a little bit? Have you signed like a 12-month supply agreement that makes sure that the pricing is not going to be a headwind to your gross margins and or put it in a different way. What have you assumed in your gross margin in terms of cost inflation from memory over the course of 2026? Thank you.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

I think margin level, inventory levels are coming down in the fourth quarter following the seasonality that we have, and that includes all inventories. So when it comes to that part, I think we are well positioned coming into the year when it comes to inventory levels on this kind of areas. Then of course there is cost increases coming that we need to work with, but we don't share exactly how much that is, of course, but it will have some impact. But we will work together with our customers to ensure that we are, so to say, not stuck in the middle here. But there is an understanding that there is some sharing to be done here.

[Didier Scemama, Managing Director and Senior analyst at Bank of America]

Okay, thank you for that. And sorry again to go back to the defense point. I think you sort of said, look, we've got opportunities. Can you give us a sense of the size of your business today in defense, what sort of cost you're thinking about? Does that require any CapEx? Just elaborate a little bit. So we've got something to work with. Thank you.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Yeah, I think you can assume, you know, we're not going into details exactly what our business is because we're working with a number of defense organizations. As you know, Ericsson exited all defense several years ago, so we haven't really had a presence. So today we're working in partnerships as well as with defense organizations. So we're not going into details there.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

I think when you look at the overall sizing, you know, the revenue opportunity, there are a number of consultants out there talking about the size of that opportunity, and some are very big numbers. I'm not sure it's going to be that, but we think it's, compared to the rest of the opportunity we have, sizeable. When we talk about it from an investment point of view, you know, this is more saying that we will ramp up our presence in here and actually increase our investments. It's not going to be material compared to our overall SEK 50 billion we spend on R&D. So that's why we also say that it's part, you know, it can be, well, be offset, maybe not fully, but by the efficiency gains that we're going to do.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

When you look at it from a total point of view, think about it as there is a big opportunity. We will try to invest to get that. We're not going to materially impact our outlook with that. That's not the case. But we want to single it out as a growth opportunity.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

And I think. On your questionnaire on CapEx it's very, very limited.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Yeah, that's fair. That will be. You will not see that as a CapEx need.

[Didier Scemama, Managing Director and Senior analyst at Bank of America]

Okay, thank you so much for the details.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks Didier. Moving to the next question please. The next question is going to come from the line of Daniel Djurberg at Handelsbanken. Please go ahead Daniel.

[Daniel Djurberg, Equity Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Thank you and good morning. Börje and Daniel, I have a question. If you could give any more color on the visibility of the North American RAN market in 2026, is it fair to assume a more back-end loaded year given some of your larger customers' spectrum asset holdings for example that could I expect to build upon in the latter part of the year. Thanks.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

I think we don't. I think we say that when it comes to the full year, we are coming out with healthy investment levels and we expect that to continue. Then how it will pan out between quarters, it's actually rather, I think, difficult to say. It depends on what the capital investment needs that they have and different rollout phases, etc. So I don't think it's too easy to say what will be the difference between the first and the second half.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

No, I think that you know we don't guide that way. We have elected to do it quarterly and I think that's why we do it quarterly. What I do think is fair to say that when we look at the North American market and by the way this is actually a global phenomenon but when you will hear, I think our customers talk a bit about being cautious on CapEx. The interesting thing is we also see a change in mix in our customers. We believe the active components are going to be needed because that's driven by the traffic growth and the need to go 5G Standalone as well as new use cases like fixed wireless access.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

So when you see that, you actually see according to healthy investment level even though our customers most likely will guide for a bit lower CapEx without knowing they need to guide on their own, but it's given signals that you can hear it's pretty clear they will be cautious on CapEx.

[Daniel Djurberg, Equity Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Perfect. Thank you very much and good luck here in Q1.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Thank you.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks for the question. Moving on to the next question please. The next question is going to come from the line of Andrew Gardiner at Citi. Please go ahead Andrew.

[Andrew Gardiner, Managing Director and Senior Equity at Citigroup]

Thank you, Daniel. Morning, Börje. Lars, I was just coming back to a point you made early in your presentation regarding the performance that you'd had over the course of 2025. Your profitability has improved noticeably. Last year you've had two good years of operational cash generation. And so that is putting Ericsson, as you point out, in touching distance of the long-term financial targets. That being said, these targets are some years old at this point. Are they still relevant and accurate targets for us to use in the market? Or given the changing state of your end markets and your strong execution, is there the possibility to do better? Do you have the ambition to perhaps outperform those somewhat old targets at this point?

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

I think it's right that they're old. We have not succeeded at reaching them. So that's a fair, fair comment. But I think we should remember we also set the targets in a different environment, geopolitically as well as business mix, to be honest. So we set them when iconectiv was part of our portfolio. We set them in a very different political environment. I think we, you know, I'm not a fan of changing targets easily. So we want to make sure that we reach that 15-18 first. Once we're solidly there, then I think we can start to talk about is that the right target after that. But right now I think it's a good measure on what we should achieve with the current type of business we have.

[Andrew Gardiner, Managing Director and Senior Equity at Citigroup]

Thank you.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks for the question, Andrew. We just have time for a brief follow up question from one of the analysts before we close, so if we can bring Daniel back in. Daniel Djurberg at Handelsbanken. Daniel, your line is open for a brief follow up. Thank you.

[Daniel Djurberg, Equity Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Thank you so much. Then I would like to ask you a little bit on the Cloud Software Services. Sorry if I missed answer before, but could you help us to understand a little bit more on this impact of this large contract being invoiced for the quarter? That is, would the outlook comments on Q1 seasonality have changed to more of a similar view if the contract has been excluded in Q4?

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

That's a good question. As we said, we're coming out strong in Q4 here. As you know, we have lumpiness when it comes to project deliveries which are, if you look at the full year, we are up around some 6% organically in Cloud Software and Services, and I think that has been a good underlying growth that we have seen supported by the core business and that is what we see as a healthy level coming into 2026, then of course, if that single comment would bring us back to normal, I think that's a little bit. It would of course bring us closer for sure that that is true.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

We should remember, I think you have all seen that, that we have a significant currency headwind coming in Q1 year over year as a comparison that you will see currency rates peaked somewhat in Q1 2025. So that headwind we also are facing here.

[Daniel Djurberg, Equity Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Thank you very much. Look forward to seeing you in Barcelona.

[Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO at Ericsson]

Thank you.

[Börje Ekholm, President and CEO at Ericsson]

Thank you.

[Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations at Ericsson]

Thanks everyone for joining. That concludes the call. Thank you.

Participants

Executives

• Börje Ekholm, President and CEO
• Lars Sandström, SVP and CFO
• Daniel Morris, Head of Investor Relations

Analysts

• Didier Scemama, Managing Director and Senior analyst at Bank of America
• Analyst
• Andrew Gardiner, Managing Director and Senior Equity at Citigroup
• Andreas Joelsson, Analyst at DNB
• Daniel Djurberg, Equity Analyst at Handelsbanken
• Sami Sarkamies, Senior Equity Analyst at Danske Bank
• Simon Granath, Partner and Equity Research Analyst at ABG
• Ulrich Rathe, Analyst at Bernstein
• Sébastien Sztabowicz, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux
• Jakob Bluestone, Senior Equity Analyst at BNP Paribas
• Felix Henriksson, Associate Director and Equity Research at Nordea
• Sandeep Deshpande, Analyst at J.P. Morgan