NYSE:EVH Evolent Health Q4 2025 Earnings Report $3.94 +0.11 (+2.73%) Closing price 05/22/2026 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$3.94 0.00 (0.00%) As of 05/22/2026 04:14 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Massive. Learn more. ProfileEarnings HistoryForecast Evolent Health EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.08Consensus EPS $0.06Beat/MissBeat by +$0.02One Year Ago EPS-$0.02Evolent Health Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$468.72 millionExpected Revenue$468.48 millionBeat/MissBeat by +$238.00 thousandYoY Revenue Growth-27.50%Evolent Health Announcement DetailsQuarterQ4 2025Date2/24/2026TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateTuesday, February 24, 2026Conference Call Time5:00PM ETUpcoming EarningsEvolent Health's Q2 2026 earnings is estimated for Thursday, August 6, 2026, based on past reporting schedules, with a conference call scheduled at 5:00 PM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Annual Report (10-K)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Evolent Health Q4 2025 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 24, 2026 ShareLink copied to clipboard.Key Takeaways Neutral Sentiment: Evolent is guiding 2026 revenue of about $2.5 billion (roughly 30% growth) with Adjusted EBITDA centered near a $125 million midpoint (company range $110–$140M) and expects EBITDA to be weighted to the back half of the year. Positive Sentiment: Management says oncology will be the core growth driver, forecasting oncology to be ~65% of 2026 revenue (up from 36% in 2025) and highlighting a Highmark oncology launch on May 1 expected to add >$550 million in 2026 and >$800 million in 2027. Positive Sentiment: About 90% of Performance Suite revenue has been migrated to the new Enhanced Performance Suite contracts, which management says preserves downside via MER corridors while enabling customer retention and new wins, and targets long‑term Performance Suite margins of 7–10%. Negative Sentiment: Near‑term profitability is pressured by reserving and exchange membership contraction—management expects 2026 MER of ~93% (vs 89% in 2025) and identified a ~$40 million one‑time headwind from exchange disenrollment tied to the "One Big Beautiful Bill." Positive Sentiment: Company cites efficiency and AI gains (exceeding the prior $20M annualized savings goal in 2025 and targeting roughly $50M of cost reductions in 2026), expects Q4 2026 run‑rate Adjusted EBITDA of >$150M, and outlines a potential $30–$100M upside if Performance Suite margins hit targets over time. AI Generated. May Contain Errors.Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallEvolent Health Q4 202500:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xTranscript SectionsPresentationParticipantsPresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:00Welcome to the Evolent earnings conference call for the fourth quarter ended December 31st, 2025. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Your hosts for today's call are Seth Blackley, Chief Executive Officer, and John Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. This call will be archived and available later this evening and for the next week via the webcast on the company's website in the section titled Investor Relations. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements under the U.S. federal laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or present expectations. A description of some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's reports that are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including cautionary statements, including in our current and periodic filings. Operator00:00:52For additional information on the company's results and outlook, please refer to our third quarter press release issued earlier today. As a reminder, reconciliations of Non-GAAP measures discussed during today's call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in the summary presentation available in the Investor Relations section of our website or in the company's press release issued today and posted in the Investor Relations website, ir.evolent.com, and the Form 8-K filed by the company with the SEC earlier today. In addition to reconciliations, we provide details on the numbers and operating metrics for the quarter in both our press release and supplemental investor presentation. I will turn the call over to Evolent CEO, Seth Blackley. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:01:39Good evening. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we released strong Q4 results with revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, both landing in the upper half of our guidance range. Our performance reflects disciplined execution and continued momentum across our three value creation pillars of strong organic growth, expanding profitability, and disciplined capital allocation. Before I get into detailed updates on each pillar, I want to comment on our outlook for 2026 and the overall state of the union at Evolent. First, Evolent is retaining and growing its customers. In addition, we're adding market share through new partners, and we're forecasting the business will grow by approximately 30% in 2026. These factors point to a large market opportunity and validate that we believe Evolent is the leading solution to support payers as they balance quality and affordability in specialty care. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:02:39Oncology, in particular, remains a challenge for health plans seeking to balance affordability and quality, with very high trends expected for many years to come. For 2026, we expect that approximately 65% of our company revenue will come from oncology, up from 36% in 2025. We expect our oncology product to continue to be the core of our growth in years to come. You think about why our oncology product is growing so rapidly. We believe it's the combination of very high annual trend that our health plans are experiencing and the incredible opportunity to reduce clinical variability. As an example of clinical variability in oncology, our analysis suggests that for one tumor type, which is second-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer, oncologists today follow more than 200 different prescribing patterns. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:03:34Variation is, we believe, it's not supported by the evidence. It can result in substandard outcomes for patients and unwarranted costs for the system. Evolent's value to our customers is our proven ability to engage with treating oncologists and guarantee the quality and cost benefits from reducing this variability. This market dynamic, as well as our large new business pipeline, makes Evolent well-positioned to see outsized growth in the years ahead. We've been able to successfully renegotiate contracts and convert them into the new Enhanced Performance Suite model, which includes revenue rate adjustments for certain medical expense factors outside of our control, as well as MER corridors to protect the downside. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:04:18When we embarked on the effort to move our contracts to the Enhanced Performance Suite model, there were a lot of questions from investors about our ability to successfully achieve this change while retaining customers and continuing to grow. The fact that we now have approximately 90% of the Performance Suite revenue under this new model, have retained all of our key customers, and have signed two major new customers this past year under the enhanced model, answers that question in an emphatic way. As we mentioned at the outset of this renegotiation process, our expectation for margins for the Enhanced Performance Suite model will be approximately 10%, as opposed to 15% under the old model. As we've rolled out this model, we're seeing opportunities to target margins higher than 10% in some cases, if we feel comfortable with the additional downside exposure. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:05:09In other contracts, there are opportunities to eliminate almost all the downside exposure if we will accept a lower maximum margin. While we make these trade-off determinations as part of a disciplined underwriting process around each contract, our existing mature contracts will tend to run above 10%. As we expand, we'll target future Performance Suite opportunity for the entire book around a range of 7%-10%, as we continue to prioritize Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow predictability over maximum margin. As Mario will discuss, getting to a target margin of 7%-10% would create a very significant tailwind for the business in the years to come. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:05:54Turning to the outlook for 2026, specifically, we're forecasting $2.5 billion of revenue at the midpoint, representing revenue growth of approximately 30%. Our Adjusted EBITDA guide is $125 million at the midpoint. The Adjusted EBITDA outlook has two significant impacts embedded for 2026 ahead of the potential tailwind I described earlier. Both of these impacts hit primarily in the first half of 2026. We believe that our run rate Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be over $150 million. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:06:30Those two factors impacting 2026 Adjusted EBITDA are as follows: First, our 2026 Performance Suite launches are expected to generate approximately $900 million of 2026 revenue, with go-live dates in Q1 and Q2, representing 37% of total 2026 revenue. The 2026 Performance Suite cohort revenue estimate has increased from our previous estimate a few months ago of $550 million, driven by large shifts in our customer membership and by scope expansion of one of the new contracts. At the same time, we saw several of our legacy cohort Performance Suite partners lose significant membership in open enrollment, so our total revenue forecast continues to center around $2.5 billion, despite outsized growth from the 2026 cohort. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:07:22In addition to the increase of new revenue, we decided to take a more conservative guidance approach, given the size of these new contracts in 2026. Mario will provide further color on the impact and the timing of those contracts in his comments. The second major factor impacting Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is that the One Big Beautiful Bill has eliminated approximately $40 million of contribution from expected exchange membership disenrollment and customer plan closures. That impact is at the very highest end of the range we estimated at the end of last year, with one of our largest customers seeing reduced exchange membership up to 60% and our next largest exchange membership booked down approximately 40%. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:08:09Some of this reduction is as a result of the lost subsidies, but we're seeing more of it from decisions the specific plans that our customer base made to shrink exposure to the exchange risk pool. You can see the combined effect of these two items on page 8 of the pack. Finally, we've been aggressive on efficiency by getting the benefits of AI and other automation across 2025. As we previously communicated, we did slightly exceed the $20 million Q4 2025 annualized savings number we had talked about on previous earnings calls. We're continuing our cost efforts in 2026, now targeting SG&A, AI, and other automation savings. These efforts included a large RIF already announced just a few weeks ago. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:08:58Our 2026 cost structure efforts modestly improve first half 2026 EBITDA, but ramp fully by the second half of the year. Mario will share more details on the 2026 cost plan in his section. Despite these aggressive cost actions, we decided to budget the year and guide around a multi-year opportunity. Accordingly, we have protected a number of product, technology, and sales investments in the P&L that weigh on 2026, but we believe will have a positive impact over time. While we're pleased with our revenue growth, we understand our first half 2026 EBITDA is disappointing on the surface due to the One Big Beautiful Bill impact, as well as the addition of our new contracts. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:09:46As I mentioned, we're confident in the ramp across 2026, and we believe we'll have a very large multi-year tailwind for the business as our 2026 contracts mature and the exchanges likely return to growth over time. Let me turn back to give you a few more detailed updates on each pillar, starting with our first pillar of organic growth. Today, we're sharing the expansion of a previously announced partnership, and we're disclosing another new contract signing. First, we're excited to share that the large oncology partnership we announced in November is with Highmark. We're obviously thrilled to have been selected by such a marquee plan. Since November, we have also expanded the partnership to additional geographies and capabilities. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:10:33This contract is expected to go live on May 1st, and we expect it will contribute over $550 million of revenue in 2026 and over $800 million in 2027. As we will discuss in more detail later in the call, the structure for this contract is, like Aetna, under our Enhanced Performance Suite model. Finally, we feel there are several exciting expansion opportunities with Highmark across new lines of business for oncology and across all lines of business for new specialties, and we look forward to earning that opportunity through strong performance with this initial launch. Second, we're announcing today that we have launched our Performance Suite in oncology in an additional state with an existing national partner. Beyond these signings and the robust pipeline I mentioned earlier, we're seeing very high renewal rates as well. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:11:24Across 2025, we've retained specialty TNS logos covering over 98% of 2025 revenue. Through a turbulent industry cycle, we have successfully moved our key Performance Suite relationships to the Enhanced Performance Suite model. Said simply, our current customers are opting to stay and expand with us, even as we require more protective terms. We're adding market share through new logo signings. We feel all of this data points to the value we can create and to the durability of our company. Turning to our second pillar of profitability, we continue to focus on both medical and operating expenses as described earlier. I did want to add several additional pieces of data here. In 2025, our Medical Expense Ratio, or MER... Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:12:14came in slightly better than expectations at 89%, excluding our Evolent Care Partners business, representing an improvement of just under 700 basis points versus 2024, even amid another year of high trend. We believe this performance reflects strong execution in pathway management, physician engagement, and alignment with our partners. Mario will walk you through how we're thinking about our 2026 MERs for both new business and the legacy cohort. I think you'll see that we're making two basic assumptions for the year. First, we estimate the 2026 cohort will run at 103%, inclusive of new reserves, and the total cohort will run at approximately 93%. We're assuming that 2026 oncology trend will remain high, in line with the 2025 trend. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:13:05In total, we believe these assumptions are conservative and set us up to meet or beat our numbers across the year. In our final pillar of capital structure, I'm pleased that we ended the year with strong cash generation. That, combined with the strategic divestiture of our Evolent Care Partners asset, enabled us to end the year with net debt of $782 million, below our expected range of $805 million-$840 million. With no maturities until late 2029, we believe our balance sheet strength supports near-term leverage and a clear path to long-term de-levering. Before I hand it to Mario, let me say a few words about the macro environment. We've been saying for several quarters now that demand for Evolent services has never been greater. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:13:51We believe this is borne out in our new business wins as we take share and grow our customer footprint, and this reality continues to be true. The managed care industry, our core customer base, is in the middle of a multi-year margin recovery cycle. To manage their own profitability targets, we see health plans are turning to companies like Evolent that have proven solutions to lower costs while improving quality for their members. At the same time, as we're expanding our business with new partners, the industry is navigating through a period of contracting membership, which presents near-term headwinds for our business as well. We believe we have a clear strategy for navigating through this dynamic moment. First, we will use this moment to seek to capture share, expanding our customer footprint under strong terms. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:14:38Demand for our product is such that we can be selective in our partnerships and highly disciplined in our underwriting. Second, we will use our scale and customer volume to drive operating efficiency within our products, enabling us, we believe, to deliver margin expansion over time. We've committed to using technology and AI from our Machinify asset acquisition to get to our long-term goal to automatically approve 80% of baseline authorization volume across our products, an outcome that we believe will improve patient and provider experience while driving down our cost structure. We made great progress on this front in 2025, seeing our imaging auto authorization rates in key test areas go up dramatically in areas where we deployed this technology. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:15:25For example, through this optimization, our real-time auto authorization rate for chest CT scans rose by over 11 points, and cervical spine MRI rose by 16 points. In 2026, we'll be deploying additional AI capabilities that will provide additional auto authorization increases. Third, we'll continue to innovate our product and its value for our customers to ensure that we are the leading specialty platform in the market. As an example of our product investments, one of our Blue Cross partners recently published data showing an approximately 40% reduction in hospitalizations and ER visits for patients who use our new cancer navigation solution. Fourth, and finally, we will achieve these goals within the context of our current balance sheet, continue to prioritize debt paydown as our primary capital allocation focus. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:16:18I do believe we have the right plan, an incredible board and team, and the right product to meet this moment, and I remain highly confident in Evolent's future. As I hand it to Mario to go over the numbers, I will just note that Mario's been at Evolent across the last 90 days. He's already had a huge positive impact on the company, and I'm highly confident in his leadership and approach going forward. Mario? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:16:44Thank you, Seth. I'm excited to be here and energized by the opportunity ahead. Let me begin with Q4 2025 financial performance. Q4 revenue totaled $469 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $37.8 million, which exceeded the midpoint of guidance. After adjusting for our ACO divestiture, baseline fiscal year 2025 revenue was $1.7 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $141 million. Next, let's review our 2025 medical expense ratio, or MER, which represents Performance Suite claims as a percentage of Performance Suite revenue. For the full year, MER was 89%, excluding ECP, with oncology trend tracking in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, MER was 95%, excluding ECP, driven primarily by out-of-period true-ups as we recognized a full year of savings shared with clients. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:17:59While these timing items temporarily elevated MER, underlying medical trend remained stable throughout the year, demonstrating the consistency of our results and reinforcing our strong momentum heading into 2026. I know we have not discussed MER in great length in the past. However, given that Performance Suite revenue will represent more than 2/3 of our business in 2026 and beyond, MER will become the most transparent and consistent way to evaluate performance, so we will provide you with greater visibility into changes in MER going forward. Turning to 2025 expenses, outside of the MER calculation, such as non-claims cost of revenue and SG&A, non-claims expenses totaled approximately $765 million for the year and approximately $190 million for the quarter. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:19:02Our quarterly non-claims cost was lower as a result of cost initiatives and lower expense accruals, more than offset the elevated MER for the quarter. We expect non-claims costs to be meaningfully lower in 2026 as efficiency initiatives continue to materialize. More detail on that shortly. Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, our cash flow from operations was $39 million, total net change in cash and cash equivalents increased by $48 million, bringing year-end cash to $152 million. We finished the year with net debt of $782 million, below the range we discussed during the last call. Please note that this did include a $15 million overpayment from a client, which, when repaid, will negatively impact 2026 cash flow. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:20:07Finally, we recorded a large non-cash goodwill impairment due to market valuation declines, which has no impact on EBITDA or cash flow. Let me now turn to our outlook, where there are four main topics shaping 2026. First, we expect strong Performance Suite growth, with revenue reaching an all-time high. While this increase in revenue creates a powerful foundation for EBITDA acceleration, it also creates a temporary headwind in 2026 due to our reserving methodologies and the timing of implementation of the new contracts. Second, Specialty TNS 2026 performance is experiencing a significant headwind from exchange membership declines consistent with the entire industry. Excluding this impact, we expect the Specialty TNS business to deliver modest underlying growth in 2026. Finally, I will also discuss Administrative Services as well as the impact of our cost reduction efforts. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:21:26With these items in mind, let me dive into our revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year. Overall, our revenue outlook is $2.4 billion-$2.6 billion, driven primarily by new Performance Suite launches, reflecting both higher membership and a more favorable PMPM mix towards Medicare. We have a bridge on page seven of the earnings deck showing the key drivers of 2026 revenue compared to 2025. The significant Performance Suite revenue increase from new contracts to be launched during the year is partially offset by approximately $100 million of lost revenue from existing Performance Suite clients due to exchange-related membership contraction and some plans exiting unprofitable markets. We also continue to see solid TNS revenue growth across both existing and new accounts. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:22:29However, this growth was more than offset by the decline in exchange membership associated with the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill. As Seth noted, while we did experience sufficient organic growth to offset the decline from a membership standpoint, there was unfavorable mix shift within these members, which contributed to a reduction in blended PMPM and total revenue. Finally, we did experience some churn in our Administrative Services business, notably related to one customer who was acquired by a large national plan that subsequently insourced our services. As we've noted before, the Administrative Services business represents a legacy portion of our portfolio, and we continue to manage it efficiently while focusing our strategic efforts on the higher-growth Performance Suite and Specialty TNS businesses. We do not believe our remaining Administrative Services contracts have that same acquisition-related risk that impacted us in 2025. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:23:42Let's now turn to our 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Our Adjusted EBITDA outlook for the year is $110 million-$140 million. Page eight of the earnings deck provides a bridge summarizing the key drivers of the year-over-year changes in Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance, and I will walk through each of the components now. Starting with the Performance Suite and assuming the midpoint of guidance, we expect the existing Performance Suite business to contribute $35 million of additional profitability despite the decline in revenue discussed earlier. This improved performance is driven by the continued realization of savings from our clinical programs, our clients' rationalization of underperforming markets, and the impact of the contract amendments Seth described earlier. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:24:43On the other hand, while our new launches will drive meaningful Adjusted EBITDA acceleration over time as they scale, they are creating a $25 million headwind to 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance, reflecting the timing of implementation and our conservative reserving approach. This represents a shift from our prior expectation of roughly break-even performance in 2026 and is driven by two key factors. First, we have an appropriately conservative approach to reserving for new contracts, despite our significantly improved processes and new contract protections. Over time, we expect this headwind to dissipate as reserves are released, but this does create some pressure in the first few months of the new contracts. Second, the losses of the midyear launches are higher than expected because of higher-than-expected membership volumes. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:25:53This is offsetting some of the positive lifts from other new contracts that are launching very early in the year. As you can see on page nine of the earnings deck, the new contracts will temporarily raise our 2026 medical expense ratio. As a result, we expect MER to be approximately 93% at the midpoint of 2026 guidance, compared to 89%, excluding ACP, in 2025. We do expect MER to rise at the start of the year due to higher reserve requirements associated with new contracts being implemented on January first. We see MER continuing to climb and peaking in the third quarter as we onboard Highmark and further strengthen claims reserves, as well as experience normal seasonality. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:26:50From there, we expect MER to steadily improve through year-end as we realize modest in-year savings from our clinical programs and realize other favorable accruals in Q4. This progression provides a clear and positive path towards sustained margin expansion as our new contracts mature. It is important to note that our underlying medical claims are expected to remain roughly consistent throughout the year. We're not assuming a rapid clinical improvement in 2026, even as our teams work to drive performance gains. Due to our new contract reserving methodology and the expected progression of MER throughout the year, we anticipate that EBITDA will be 70% weighted towards the back half of 2026. At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, with a $10 million-$15 million sequential improvement per quarter in both Q3 and Q4. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:28:03This pattern is fully aligned with the timing of our contract implementations, the reserve dynamics in the early part of the year, and the growing benefit of our operating initiatives as the year progresses. As our newly launched contracts mature and our clinical and operational programs take hold, we believe we are well positioned to deliver this earnings trajectory with increasing momentum across 2026 and beyond. It is also worth noting, as we discuss 2026 guidance, that our new contracts include significant downside protections, and because we are reserving these contracts at elevated MER levels, we believe our downside exposure in 2026 is very limited. Our Performance Suite, MER, is the most direct indicator of how the business is progressing throughout the year and how we are tracking relative to expectations, despite some occasional in-year volatility. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:29:12While MER can already be derived from our 10-K, we will be introducing enhanced disclosures to provide even greater transparency for investors. Moving on to specialty TNS, one of the major factors affecting 2026 EBITDA is the contraction in exchange membership resulting from the one big beautiful bill. This creates a one-time $40 million headwind to specialty TNS revenue in 2026, consistent with the high-end possibility of a 40% decline in exchange membership we discussed on our last call, net of acuity shifts. Future changes in subsidies or exchange enrollment, either before or after the midterms, could provide upside, our current outlook reflects the full impact of this contraction. Excluding the impact of exchange membership, TNS, at the midpoint of guidance, is expected to contribute $5 million of incremental revenue and margin in 2026, driven by growth in membership. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:30:27Unfortunately, this new membership growth is unfavorable from a revenue mix standpoint, so it is not sufficient to offset exchange-related membership losses. However, this does show how demand continues to grow for our specialty TNS solutions. Finally, Administrative Services churn, as mentioned earlier, is meaningful but is being more than offset by a $50 million year-over-year workforce reduction and efficiencies gained across the enterprise. This includes the $20 million saving we realized by Q4 2025 that Seth mentioned earlier. Speaking of expense reductions, let me provide additional clarity on those ongoing efforts, which is a big area of focus for our team going forward, and discuss how they will flow through our 2026 financials. With the previously mentioned expectation of 93% MER for Performance Suite, we project approximately $1.7 billion of medical claims expense for the year. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:31:36The remaining expense base, which includes cost of revenue, excluding medical claims, but including medical device costs and SG&A, is expected to be approximately $675 million at the midpoint of guidance. The $675 million reflects a $90 million reduction from 2025 levels. Approximately $40 million of the decrease is driven by the divestiture of Evolent Care Partners, while the remaining $50 million reflects the impact of our efficiency initiatives already in motion, including targeted cost actions taken across the organization. If I put it all together, I expect our Q4 run rate EBITDA to be at least $150 million. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:32:30Should we achieve the Performance Suite 7%-10% target margin on the forecasted $2.2 billion annualized Performance Suite revenue exiting 2026, we expect to generate roughly $160 million-$220 million in total margin. This is roughly $30 million-$100 million higher than the approximately $125 million of Performance Suite contribution that is in the midpoint of the 2026 guide. We believe this potential tailwind is the most important factor that will drive shareholder returns over the coming years. Finally, as you can see on page 6 of the pack, the Enhanced Performance Suite contract structure can create asymmetric upside for shareholders over time. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:33:25Specifically, if you look at the new launches for 2026, we are forecasting these new contracts to run at 103% MER for the year at the midpoint of the guidance. In the event of a 7% MER degradation to 110% MER, that would drive a negative $13 million EBITDA impact. A 7% improvement to just 96% MER, or getting less than half of our target margin, would drive a $57 million EBITDA improvement. Please note that because we expect Adjusted EBITDA to build throughout the year, our leverage ratios will be higher earlier on and should begin to decline meaningfully in the second half. It is important to note that we are confident our current balance sheet and debt terms provide ample flexibility to manage this temporary dynamic as we ramp these large new contracts. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:34:35Turning to cash flow, an item we're watching very closely, we anticipate generating at least $10 million-$20 million in cash flow from operations after paying approximately $60 million in cash interest expense. Part of the decrease from 2025 is the client overpayment from Q4 that we mentioned earlier, as well as $11 million of previously classified dividends, which are now reclassified as interest expense and moved into cash flow from operations. We also expect to invest between $25 million-$30 million in software development and CapEx in 2026. With these financial considerations in mind, let me close with a brief comment on the organization. I want to acknowledge the exceptional work of the Evolent team and where we stand as a company. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:35:28While there is a significant amount of work ahead, I believe we're well positioned to execute at a high level and accelerate growth as our new partnerships come online throughout 2026. We have a strong foundation, a disciplined financial plan, and a team fully aligned around delivering for our partners and driving sustainable value for our shareholders. I'm confident in our ability to navigate the near-term challenges and to capitalize on the substantial opportunity in front of us. With that, operator, we can open the line for questions. Operator00:36:06Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question only. For additional questions, you may reenter the queue. The first question will come from Charles Rhyee with TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Analyst at TD Cowen00:36:38Hi, this is Lucas on for Charles. Thanks for taking the question. Can you help us understand a little bit more about the rationale and what's driving the conservative approach to reserving? Presumably, this is for the CVS contract. It's our understanding that initially you guys are reserving for a 0% MER, because your fees match the expected acuity of the population you're about to serve. Here we're looking at a MER of 103%. I guess, can you help us understand, you know, what's driving this? You said new membership is expected to drive this MER higher. It's also our understanding that the enhanced contract allows you to retrospectively, you know, adjust the fees for this change in acuity. Analyst at TD Cowen00:37:35I guess, why is that still driving a loss here, if that makes sense? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:37:45The, you know, the first thing I'll point out is when we have new contracts, we do reserve, and we have a different level of reserves in ongoing business. That's a big part of what you're seeing with the ramp-up. We have $900 million of new business revenue this year, it's a very meaningful part of our profitability. These initial reserves are more conservative. In the beginning, there are lots of new data flow, implementation that can impact the profitability and the claims coming through. This framework is not new. It's something we've developed over the last couple of years, and follows GAAP. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:38:32The other piece, as you can see on the EBITDA bridge, is when we do that and we ramp up IBNR, there is an explicit margin that's added. It's about $13 million, and that's just, again, a good reserve accounting that we have. That's why the new contracts typically have that impact. Operator00:38:54The next question will come from John Stansel with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. John StanselEquity Research Associate at JPMorgan00:39:01Great. Thanks for taking my question. wanted to quickly hone in. I know it's early, but given kind of some of your early indicators, what you're seeing with new membership early on this year, behavior, anything kind of different than you saw last year? I know last year kind of progressed in line with your trends. Thanks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:39:21Yeah. Hey, hey, John, it's Seth. I'll take that one. Let's start with exchanges. I think, you know, I mentioned on the call, we're assuming about a 40% reduction, and the early indicators we're getting from our client base are consistent with that, and we're obviously in touch, close touch with our clients. That number is obviously very different than if we had a different footprint of clients. I think more of that decline is from our clients proactively choosing to step away from risk pools as opposed to, you know, members not renewing because the subsidy changes or something like that. I think, again, that one feels like a reasonably conservative assumption. We won't know for sure until in Q2 how the members fully enroll or not, but I think that's it on exchanges. We're trying to be quite conservative. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:40:13On MA, I'd say it's, you know, mixed. We have a couple clients who exited a bunch of markets and lost membership materially. We have a couple clients who gained a lot of membership net. It was sort of a push for us, across the year. Medicaid has been kind of status quo and not much change there. Operator00:40:36The next question will come from Daniel Grosslight with Citi. Please go ahead. Daniel GrosslightSenior Research Analyst at Citi00:40:41Hi, thanks for taking the question. Just a housekeeping question to begin with. It looks like stock-based comp has been, you know, pretty variable over the past few quarters, and I'm just curious how we should be modeling that. My real question is on capital deployment for 2026, just given the limited free cash flow that you do have available, and it does seem like you are focused on deleveraging. If you just look at the debt markets right now, especially for you guys, you seem to be particularly dislocated, let's call it. Your debt is trading at a significant discount. Daniel GrosslightSenior Research Analyst at Citi00:41:24I'm curious what your propensity is to go into the open market and buy down debt. Obviously, you know, you have to be careful about messaging, all that, but curious on how you're thinking about liability management, given how steep of a discount your debt is trading at. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:41:41Yep. So, on the stock comp, I wouldn't change your assumptions. I think we're going to be in line with what you guys have seen in the past for the year. You know, it's a good question. We see the same thing. We're obviously very aware of how our convertible is trading. You know, it's not. Right now, we're focusing on deleveraging by making sure we can execute. We also have, as I said, a very good, strong, flexible balance sheet, even though leverage is higher than we would like. We also have some cash and undrawn capacity. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:42:19We feel like we're in a good position, but it is difficult, just given the dynamic of the ramp-up this year, to go out and do much other than what we're doing, which is focused on the business. Obviously, if there are any opportunities to do good liability management and add shareholder value that way, we will look at it and weigh that against other things like cash on the balance sheet. We are very aware of that dynamic, Daniel. Thank you. Operator00:42:49The next question will come from Jailendra Singh with Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Jailendra SinghManaging Director at Truist Securities00:42:55Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. First, a quick clarification. Just trying to reconcile your comment about second half. At one point, you said that you expect fourth quarter run rate to be around $150 million, but you're also expecting 70% of 2026 EBITDA to come in second half, which would imply much higher run rate. Is there something, a dynamic between Q3 and Q4 we should be aware of, or are there some non-recurring items second half, which should not be part of annual run rate? That's a quick clarification, if you can. My main question is around, can you talk about your oncology cost trend expectations for 2026? If you can update, like, how did you end up on 2025 compared to your 12% expectation you had for the year? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:43:37Sure. Yeah, that's a very good question. Yes, there are some reversals in the reserve in the fourth quarter and contractual impacts. Not a huge amount, but that's why there's a little bit of a difference between the implied Q4 number that you may be calculating and what Seth said is the implied run rate at that point. That's part of the reserve requirement process this year with the new business. There is a little bit of that happening. On your second question, yeah, we are seeing sort of very stable trend on the oncology side, on both, really across the board. We have looked at 2026 in a very similar trend level as 2025. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:44:33I will say, given one of the things that Seth talked about and we have in the earnings deck, our contracts now work in such a way that not every point of trend is the same. We have a number of different mechanisms to adjust trend for things out of our control. A 15% trend, as long as it's being caused by the change event metrics that we have in our contracts, may not be a big headwind for us. We will continue to provide flavor with trend because that will impact MER, but we just want you guys to keep that in mind, the way our contracts work now, there's some very specific things that accrue to us on the trend side, and it really depends where the, where the change is coming from. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:45:24Jailendra, the last thing I'd add on the oncology trend side, I think the baseline that we saw across 25 and what we're expecting for 26, again, is consistent, not up or down in 26 relative to 25. We, again, 25 came in roughly where we thought. Operator00:45:46The next question will come from Jared Haase with William Blair. Please go ahead. Jared HaaseSenior Research Associate at William Blair00:45:52Hey, good evening. Thanks for taking the questions. Appreciate all the details as it relates to the EBITDA outlook. Maybe I'll ask one on the pipeline, I think there was a bullet point in the earnings deck. You mentioned the late-stage contract opportunities that could provide additional upside here in 2026. I just wanted to sort of flesh that pipeline opportunity out a bit more, kind of understand how that's weighted to Performance Suite versus TNS. I guess, you know, a specific part of the question here would be if that is weighted, excuse me, to larger Performance Suite deals, could that potentially lead to, you know, an additional drag in the back half of the year if those do come to fruition? Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:46:32Yeah, thanks for the question, Jared. A couple things on the pipeline. I'd say, you know, I think I've been saying this for maybe a year and a half, about the challenges that managed care companies have do translate into pipeline activity for us, that's definitely bearing out growth rate this year, the size of the pipeline. It continues to be really balanced, Jared, to be honest, between Performance Suite and Tech and Services. We have some very significant Tech and Services opportunities. We happen to announce, you know, talk about 2 big Performance Suite opportunities today, there are a number of both that could affect, you know, the growth rates over time, I think we feel really good about the growth rates over time. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:47:17I would not worry about announcing a new Performance Suite deal that creates a new drag on 2026. That is not something that we're going to be doing this year, with the new Performance Suite contract. I think there are some go lives on the Tech and Services side that, you know, could provide some modest upside. I think the thing you should take away is that the 2026 framework is pretty well locked down at this point. We don't have a, you know, go gets that we need to go figure out on the revenue side. Really all of this I'm talking about is for 2027, and it's a nice blend of, you know, Tech Services and Performance Suite. Operator00:47:56The next question will come from Jessica Tassan with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Jessica TassanSenior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler00:48:02Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Mario, congrats on the first official earnings call. We appreciate all the new disclosure, but obviously we've been kind of burned by the Performance Suite business before. Just why should we be confident that the 103% MLR on new contracts in 2026 reflects conservatism versus inadequate pricing on new business? Just, I think your 2025 results kind of imply about a 9% OpEx burden on Performance Suite revenue to get to, you know, approximately a 2% Performance Suite EBITDA margin. Just what is the MLR and OpEx combo to get us to those 7%-10% long-term target margins in the Performance Suite? Thank you. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:48:43Hey, hey, Jess. I'll take the first one. Look, I think the main thing that I would focus on with respect to the new business is the structure of the contract. You know, we have a slide in the pack that shows you the asymmetry of how that works, number one. Number two, you know, at 103, we're definitely underwriting out of the gates, we think, at a very conservative place. You know, you've been able to apply the combo of conservative underwriting and a good contract does create that asymmetry that we talked about. In the last, third to last factor that Mario commented on his run, is I think we've taken all that and also applied it to how we guide it for the year. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:49:30Meaning you got accounting policies and reserving, and 103 does a certain set of things, and then just generally how we land on the guide across all the factors of the business. We tried to, you know, orient towards conservatism and new CFO part of that, I think is a good and healthy dynamic in terms of being conservative. That's how it started. On the OpEx thing, I think the thing you got to think about is flow-through economics. That 2%, I didn't totally track all the math, but each incremental $1 of care margin in the Performance Suite is disproportionately going to fall to EBITDA, Jess, because there is some variable OpEx, but it's not, you know, it's a more of a fixed cost investment on a lot of that. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:50:15You know, I think the 7%-10%, we feel really good about. I think we're, you know, achieving that today on the legacy cohort as a for instance, and, feel really good about being able to get there with the whole book over time. Operator00:50:29The next question will come from Jeff Garro with Stephens. Please go ahead. Jeff GarroManaging Director at Stephens00:50:34Yeah, good afternoon, guys, and thanks for taking the question. I'll stick on the MER front and, you know, trying to think about that 89% actual performance for 2025, and then the 93% expectation for the full book of business for 2026, that has the drag of $900 million at that 103%. My implied math is there's on the remaining Performance Suite business from 2025-2026, there's some improvement, pretty modest, but we'd love to hear you explain more about the specific drivers of improvement and opportunity, even beyond what's, you know, kind of underwritten in that 93% full year 2026 expectation for the kind of remaining Performance Suite business, and, you know, much of which is already on those new contract structures. Thanks. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:51:30Sure. I think it's just along the same things we've talked about. It's because we have so much new business, upwards of $900 million, we expect this year in new Performance Suite business. As typical, we're not unusual. We are reserving. We have to build up reserves. We have to build up IBNR over the first few months. Because, as I said, the new relationships, new data flow, just the teams working together, we do have a framework that tends to be more conservative on the reserving side. That doesn't last all that long, but for, especially contracts that start in the middle of the year, once you get over that initial reserving, you actually start looking at some benefits. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:52:18Part of what you're seeing in the fourth quarter is reversal of some of that. The base business has continued to perform well. That's why the blend is at 93%, which is worse than last year. It's primarily the new business driving up MER, offset by continued good performance on our existing cohort. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:52:42Yeah, Jeff, I think part of the question, too, is: Okay, how does the existing cohort get a little bit better? There's some ongoing clinical initiative, but there's also some contractual things. I'd say the majority of the improvement is what I would call contractual in nature, which gives us a lot of confidence in it, as opposed to, you know, go get on the clinical side. Operator00:53:03The next question will come from Matthew Gilmore with KeyBank. Please go ahead. Matthew GilmoreEquity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets00:53:09Hey, good afternoon. Just following up on some earlier questions, I'd be curious if you could just orient us around some of the swing factors in terms of the high end of the EBITDA guide versus the low end. Is trend on oncology costs are the main one to think about, or are there other sort of factors that you'd orient us around? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:53:29You know, I think it's MER to start with, which is why we've started talking more about it, why we're disclosing it in a different way in our financials. Really is about MER, especially as we sit here, we think we have a good view of membership. Aside from any other exchange issues, we feel very good about where we are. Then it's the evolution of can we accelerate the savings that we're projecting? Again, as I said, trend can be a factor. We feel like we're being, you know, appropriately conservative on those metrics, especially given the new contract provisions, where not every 1 percentage of trend is the same. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:54:15We have a lot of levers to protect us in case trend is heading the wrong way for things that we don't control. That is the biggest swing factor by far. Operator00:54:30The next question will come from Richard Close with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Richard CloseManaging Director at Canaccord Genuity00:54:36... Yeah, a couple questions. Seth, earlier on, when you talked about exchanges, you said something about return to growth over time, and I'm just curious, you know, what goes into that comment? A follow-up with Mario, just, you know, your thoughts. You've been here 90 days, I guess, on the ground. Sounds like your fingerprints are on the guidance, and some of the new disclosures. Just curious, you know, maybe your thoughts in terms of any changes you're thinking about going forward, that would be helpful. Thanks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:55:20Yeah, I'll start on the exchange and then pass it to Mario. Richard, what I'd say is two things on exchange. One is, if you go just look at how consumers have bought that product in the marketplace, it has had growth to it that go outside of subsidy swings, and there is interest in the product generally. We have this dislocation from subsidies being pulled back and risk pools are getting shifted. I think over time, the idea of consumers using it to buy product probably will come back over some time period, and whatever the growth rate that'll be, that'll be. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:55:56Second factor is, you know, more of a wild card, but, you know, should there be a change in the midterms or legislation or anything like that to adjust how subsidies work, that could be, you know, more of a step up in membership, which we're obviously not counting on either of those two things in the 26 number. You know, could be something in the out years. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:56:22It's been a great 90 days or a long 90 days. If anything, I'm more excited to be here than I thought I'd be. Team is amazing. You know, I think what we do is at the heart of what we need more of to fix what's wrong in healthcare. All that feels really great. I've tried to partner with Seth and figure out a way in how we communicate with all of you and our other investors with more clarity, transparency, and how it directly correlates to what you're seeing in the financial statement. I think if anything, I will try to continue to do that. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:57:00The MER, in my mind, gets us quite a bit of the way to a place where we're doing that. We will continue to look at new and improved ways to try to communicate with you guys so you can understand how our business is performing and holding us accountable. Operator00:57:20The next question will come from David Larsen with BTIG. Please go ahead. David LarsenManaging Director at BTIG00:57:26Hi, can you talk about what your mature Performance Suite, EBITDA margins look like? What is that percentage? How long does it take to get there? Then just over time, like in 2027, 2028, 30% revenue growth, that's high, that's great, but it seems like it's coming at the cost of margin degradation and free cash flow. Like, why not grow revenue, let's call it, like, 10% or 15% year-over-year, and focus on more EBITDA growth, EBITDA margin growth, and free cash flow and debt paydown? Thank you. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:58:08I think we're not gonna talk, we don't talk about EBITDA margin, but we can talk generally about our sort of existing book of business. When you look at the MERs that we're disclosing today around the new cohort and what we had at the end of 2025, you're getting to a pretty good care margin. We talked around 7%-10%. The existing book is doing a little bit better than that, partly because of what Seth said, we're getting some contractual adjustments that improve our base rate, which aren't temporary, but they won't happen every year. They'll stay there, they just won't happen every year. You know, for the whole book of business, I think we're feeling very good about how it's performing. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:58:55I think I'll let Seth comment on the focus, profitability versus growth. I just, you know, to me, coming in, understanding the Highmark relationship, some things are just, they're great for the business, and it may create short-term pressure. The long term is, we wanna create value. You know, we know that we can lay this out for you guys, so you see the huge opportunity we have in front of us with that partnership, with the current revenue this year, even though from a profitability standpoint, we will have to execute to get it to the point that we know we can, like the rest of the business that we have. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:59:39Yeah, David, I'd add just one other thing, which is, you know, the Performance Suite, we think is the best way to create value for our partners, which we got to start with them, and we think it's more economically attractive on a per-life basis for us as well. You know, I think particularly when you have the enhanced model, more predictability and the like, you're willing to go through a period of investment to get there. It's kind of what Mario just said, but I do think it's important that the pie of value is bigger under the Performance Suite than Tech and Services. When you choose between those two products, you know, we, the enhanced Tech and Services we think is the better of the two products. If the client wants Tech and Services, we'll obviously do that. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:00:33We'll do whatever they are interested in doing. You know, in terms of the investment ramps and the like, again, I think to Mario's point, you find a partner who's a great partner, and they're interested in creating a partnership together. You do that because it's going to create value over time. I think we're making the right decisions to maximize the value of the company. Operator01:00:58The next question will come from Matthew Shea with Needham. Please go ahead. Matthew SheaAnalyst at Needham & Company01:01:02Hey, thanks for taking the question. Appreciate the update that 90% of the Performance Suite contracts now have the enhanced protections in risk corridors. Of the 10% that have not migrated, you know, to the scope is limited and protections are not economically warranted. Could you just update us on what is in that 10%? It sounds like that will stay without protection. How are you thinking about those contracts longer term? Would you eventually look to migrate or sunset those, or do you have confidence in them, even without the protections? Thanks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:01:38Matthew, I would expect almost all of those to move to the enhanced as well. Maybe there's a couple % of the, of the 100 that are, you know, never migrate, but I think it's gonna be high 90s at some point, would be my guess. I can't guarantee that, but I think that's where it's headed. I think it's the right call for our partners and the right call for us. It kind of gets everything into a standard structure. That's how I think about it. Operator01:02:04The next question will come from Sean Dodge with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Sean DodgeManaging Director, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets01:02:11Yeah, thanks. Maybe just on the cost efforts you mentioned, Mario Ramos, for 2026, you said you expect $50 million of that to be captured within the year. Just the timeline on those, are those going to unfold pretty randomly across the year, or are they more kind of early year or later year, kind of more heavily weighted? I guess just how should we think about the run rate benefit of those going into 2027? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health01:02:36Yeah. Those are baked obviously, in the adjusted EBITDA guidance, you know, into the cost base that is implied by the guidance. I would say Seth talked a lot about, you know, getting $20 million last year in AI and automation initiatives. Those already happened at the end of 2025. Of the 50, 20 were done then. We did another big portion of the remaining 30 in early this year, and there will be a piece that we will continue to get throughout the year. It's largely running through. As I said, when you look at what we've guided to and the cost base implied by that, the $50 million is in there. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health01:03:20There isn't a ton of wrap or additional run rate because they were mostly they were almost be done early in the year. Operator01:03:29The next question will come from Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please go ahead. Kevin CaliendoManaging Director at UBS01:03:35Hey, guys, thanks. Thanks for getting me in after I dropped out of queue. I appreciate the downside protection of your new contracts. I really want to understand, when you are signing new business, what kind of IRR or ROIC are you modeling out or shooting for? I get maybe it's not as high as it used to be because you have, you know, lower downside. Obviously, there's risk-reward here. When you're modeling this out, what are you aiming to achieve? Like, what's the target return? How do you think about when that return is going to come about? Year one, year two, year three, et cetera. Just trying to understand from a modeling perspective, how to think about it, how you guys think about it, how we should think about it in terms of total returns. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:04:28Yeah, let me add a little bit more color to how we think about these contracts, which I think will partly answer your question. There's a spectrum from tech and services, right? Where it's, there's no investment and no downside, all the way to the Performance Suite enhanced model, where you might have 10% margin, but you have some downside. There are things in between. You know, we are underwriting around our cost of capital at Evolent. You don't want to be over 20%, you know, cost of capital return, which gives you space in between our cost of capital and a good return. Again, you have to look at how much downside exposure is there in the opportunity versus how much upside is. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:05:08That's how we would think about it is, you know, clearing a 20% hurdle rate at least. Operator01:05:15The next question will come from Ryan Halstead with RBC. Please go ahead. Ryan HalsteadManaging Director at RBC Capital Markets01:05:21Thanks for squeezing me in. My question is again focusing on the MER, obviously a key KPI and oncology cost trends is also clearly a big contributor to that. I mean, is there for the portion of the risk that you are controlling or at risk for, is there a good way of looking ahead at kind of what would be, you know, the swing factors into that portion, whether it be, you know, is it prescribing patterns of higher costs therapeutics? Is that sort of the piece of the oncology cost trends that you're still most exposed to, I guess, or in control of? Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:06:08Yep. Yep. Great question. Yeah, I would think about it as follows. Probably 80% of what we're exposed to or in charge of managing would be the therapeutic, and 20% would be other costs, which might be radiation therapy or things like that. Within the therapeutic exposure that we have, we carve out new drugs and indications or things that are, you know, not in our control. Things that would be in our control would be, you know, for a given cohort of patients that are receiving similar types of treatment, what is the average cost of the therapeutic for that case, plus the 20% of other? That's, that's really how we think about it. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:06:54I think that's our unique value proposition, is being able to manage the therapeutic, you know, dosing, selection, timing, et cetera. You guys know, I'll use checkpoint inhibitors as an example that everybody understands. They've been very high cost, drugs like KEYTRUDA or OPDIVO or others. You know, the duration of that. Is the patient on it for 90 days, 120 days, 150 days? If it's not working, are you able to get onto a new therapy quicker? What's the number of vials, you know, or dosage that are open, et cetera? It's all of those decisions, which again, are very tied to the patient profile and the genome and deeply clinical decision-making, which is really the core of, you know, the clinical work we do. Operator01:07:40This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Seth Blackley for any closing remarks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:07:48I thank you for joining tonight. It's great to have Mario on the team, and I just want to say a big thank you to the entire Evolent team. It's been a, you know, a lot going on over the last year and a half. Our team is highly committed to the mission of this company. I'm really proud of them, and I'm very confident that the team and I and the board are gonna deliver for our shareholders, and I'm excited about that. Operator01:08:13The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.Read moreParticipantsExecutivesMario RamosCFOSeth BlackleyCEOAnalystsDaniel GrosslightSenior Research Analyst at CitiDavid LarsenManaging Director at BTIGJailendra SinghManaging Director at Truist SecuritiesJared HaaseSenior Research Associate at William BlairJeff GarroManaging Director at StephensJessica TassanSenior Research Analyst at Piper SandlerJohn StanselEquity Research Associate at JPMorganKevin CaliendoManaging Director at UBSMatthew GilmoreEquity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital MarketsMatthew SheaAnalyst at Needham & CompanyRichard CloseManaging Director at Canaccord GenuityRyan HalsteadManaging Director at RBC Capital MarketsSean DodgeManaging Director, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital MarketsAnalyst at TD CowenPowered by Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Annual report(10-K) Evolent Health Earnings HeadlinesAgentic AI Powers U.S. Healthcare StocksMay 17, 2026 | 247wallst.comEvolent Health, Inc. (EVH) Q1 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026 | seekingalpha.comSpaceX will mint billionaires. You won't be one of them.By the time a company goes public, 95% of profits have already been made. Insiders bought SpaceX at $20 billion - you'd be buying at $1.75 trillion. But one small, publicly traded company sits directly in SpaceX's path, still priced like Wall Street hasn't noticed. It powers the infrastructure Musk's operation can't run without. Dylan Jovine is naming the ticker free - before the June S-1 closes the window.May 24 at 1:00 AM | Behind the Markets (Ad)Evolent (EVH) Q1 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026 | finance.yahoo.comWhy is Evolent Health (EVH) stock soaring todayMay 8, 2026 | msn.comEvolent Health (NYSE:EVH) Misses Q1 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, But Stock Soars 5.1%May 7, 2026 | finance.yahoo.comSee More Evolent Health Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Evolent Health? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Evolent Health and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Evolent HealthEvolent Health (NYSE:EVH). is a U.S.-based healthcare technology and services company that partners with health systems, physician organizations and health plans to design, build and operate value-based care programs. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, the company was founded in 2011 as a joint venture between TPG and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC). Evolent Health aims to help its clients transition from fee-for-service payment models to value-based care arrangements by leveraging its proprietary technology platforms and clinical expertise. The company’s core offerings include care management solutions, population health analytics and clinical advisory services. Evolent Health’s technology platform integrates claims and clinical data to support risk stratification, predictive modeling and performance reporting. Through its Care Management and Evolent Clinical services, the company deploys teams of nurses, care managers and data analysts to work directly with participating providers and patients, focusing on chronic disease management, preventive care outreach and utilization management. Evolent Health serves a broad range of geographies across the United States, with key clients spanning commercial, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid populations. The company has collaborated with regional health systems and national insurers to launch accountable care organizations (ACOs), bundled payment programs and total cost-of-care arrangements. By aligning incentives and sharing financial risk, Evolent Health’s partnerships aim to improve patient outcomes while controlling healthcare spending. Leadership at Evolent Health is headed by Chief Executive Officer Frank Williams, who brings extensive experience in healthcare finance and operations. The management team includes industry veterans in clinical services, technology development and regulatory affairs, reflecting the company’s integrated approach to supporting its clients’ value-based care initiatives.View Evolent Health ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Latest Articles Was Decker’s Double Beat a Bullish Signal—Or Mere HOKA’s-Pocus?Workday Validates AI Flywheel: Stock Price Recovery BeginsOverextended, e.l.f. Beauty Is Primed to Rebound in Back HalfDeere Beats Q2 Estimates, But Ag Weakness Weighs on OutlookNVIDIA Price Pullback? 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PresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:00Welcome to the Evolent earnings conference call for the fourth quarter ended December 31st, 2025. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Your hosts for today's call are Seth Blackley, Chief Executive Officer, and John Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. This call will be archived and available later this evening and for the next week via the webcast on the company's website in the section titled Investor Relations. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements under the U.S. federal laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or present expectations. A description of some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's reports that are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including cautionary statements, including in our current and periodic filings. Operator00:00:52For additional information on the company's results and outlook, please refer to our third quarter press release issued earlier today. As a reminder, reconciliations of Non-GAAP measures discussed during today's call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in the summary presentation available in the Investor Relations section of our website or in the company's press release issued today and posted in the Investor Relations website, ir.evolent.com, and the Form 8-K filed by the company with the SEC earlier today. In addition to reconciliations, we provide details on the numbers and operating metrics for the quarter in both our press release and supplemental investor presentation. I will turn the call over to Evolent CEO, Seth Blackley. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:01:39Good evening. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we released strong Q4 results with revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, both landing in the upper half of our guidance range. Our performance reflects disciplined execution and continued momentum across our three value creation pillars of strong organic growth, expanding profitability, and disciplined capital allocation. Before I get into detailed updates on each pillar, I want to comment on our outlook for 2026 and the overall state of the union at Evolent. First, Evolent is retaining and growing its customers. In addition, we're adding market share through new partners, and we're forecasting the business will grow by approximately 30% in 2026. These factors point to a large market opportunity and validate that we believe Evolent is the leading solution to support payers as they balance quality and affordability in specialty care. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:02:39Oncology, in particular, remains a challenge for health plans seeking to balance affordability and quality, with very high trends expected for many years to come. For 2026, we expect that approximately 65% of our company revenue will come from oncology, up from 36% in 2025. We expect our oncology product to continue to be the core of our growth in years to come. You think about why our oncology product is growing so rapidly. We believe it's the combination of very high annual trend that our health plans are experiencing and the incredible opportunity to reduce clinical variability. As an example of clinical variability in oncology, our analysis suggests that for one tumor type, which is second-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer, oncologists today follow more than 200 different prescribing patterns. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:03:34Variation is, we believe, it's not supported by the evidence. It can result in substandard outcomes for patients and unwarranted costs for the system. Evolent's value to our customers is our proven ability to engage with treating oncologists and guarantee the quality and cost benefits from reducing this variability. This market dynamic, as well as our large new business pipeline, makes Evolent well-positioned to see outsized growth in the years ahead. We've been able to successfully renegotiate contracts and convert them into the new Enhanced Performance Suite model, which includes revenue rate adjustments for certain medical expense factors outside of our control, as well as MER corridors to protect the downside. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:04:18When we embarked on the effort to move our contracts to the Enhanced Performance Suite model, there were a lot of questions from investors about our ability to successfully achieve this change while retaining customers and continuing to grow. The fact that we now have approximately 90% of the Performance Suite revenue under this new model, have retained all of our key customers, and have signed two major new customers this past year under the enhanced model, answers that question in an emphatic way. As we mentioned at the outset of this renegotiation process, our expectation for margins for the Enhanced Performance Suite model will be approximately 10%, as opposed to 15% under the old model. As we've rolled out this model, we're seeing opportunities to target margins higher than 10% in some cases, if we feel comfortable with the additional downside exposure. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:05:09In other contracts, there are opportunities to eliminate almost all the downside exposure if we will accept a lower maximum margin. While we make these trade-off determinations as part of a disciplined underwriting process around each contract, our existing mature contracts will tend to run above 10%. As we expand, we'll target future Performance Suite opportunity for the entire book around a range of 7%-10%, as we continue to prioritize Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow predictability over maximum margin. As Mario will discuss, getting to a target margin of 7%-10% would create a very significant tailwind for the business in the years to come. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:05:54Turning to the outlook for 2026, specifically, we're forecasting $2.5 billion of revenue at the midpoint, representing revenue growth of approximately 30%. Our Adjusted EBITDA guide is $125 million at the midpoint. The Adjusted EBITDA outlook has two significant impacts embedded for 2026 ahead of the potential tailwind I described earlier. Both of these impacts hit primarily in the first half of 2026. We believe that our run rate Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be over $150 million. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:06:30Those two factors impacting 2026 Adjusted EBITDA are as follows: First, our 2026 Performance Suite launches are expected to generate approximately $900 million of 2026 revenue, with go-live dates in Q1 and Q2, representing 37% of total 2026 revenue. The 2026 Performance Suite cohort revenue estimate has increased from our previous estimate a few months ago of $550 million, driven by large shifts in our customer membership and by scope expansion of one of the new contracts. At the same time, we saw several of our legacy cohort Performance Suite partners lose significant membership in open enrollment, so our total revenue forecast continues to center around $2.5 billion, despite outsized growth from the 2026 cohort. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:07:22In addition to the increase of new revenue, we decided to take a more conservative guidance approach, given the size of these new contracts in 2026. Mario will provide further color on the impact and the timing of those contracts in his comments. The second major factor impacting Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is that the One Big Beautiful Bill has eliminated approximately $40 million of contribution from expected exchange membership disenrollment and customer plan closures. That impact is at the very highest end of the range we estimated at the end of last year, with one of our largest customers seeing reduced exchange membership up to 60% and our next largest exchange membership booked down approximately 40%. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:08:09Some of this reduction is as a result of the lost subsidies, but we're seeing more of it from decisions the specific plans that our customer base made to shrink exposure to the exchange risk pool. You can see the combined effect of these two items on page 8 of the pack. Finally, we've been aggressive on efficiency by getting the benefits of AI and other automation across 2025. As we previously communicated, we did slightly exceed the $20 million Q4 2025 annualized savings number we had talked about on previous earnings calls. We're continuing our cost efforts in 2026, now targeting SG&A, AI, and other automation savings. These efforts included a large RIF already announced just a few weeks ago. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:08:58Our 2026 cost structure efforts modestly improve first half 2026 EBITDA, but ramp fully by the second half of the year. Mario will share more details on the 2026 cost plan in his section. Despite these aggressive cost actions, we decided to budget the year and guide around a multi-year opportunity. Accordingly, we have protected a number of product, technology, and sales investments in the P&L that weigh on 2026, but we believe will have a positive impact over time. While we're pleased with our revenue growth, we understand our first half 2026 EBITDA is disappointing on the surface due to the One Big Beautiful Bill impact, as well as the addition of our new contracts. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:09:46As I mentioned, we're confident in the ramp across 2026, and we believe we'll have a very large multi-year tailwind for the business as our 2026 contracts mature and the exchanges likely return to growth over time. Let me turn back to give you a few more detailed updates on each pillar, starting with our first pillar of organic growth. Today, we're sharing the expansion of a previously announced partnership, and we're disclosing another new contract signing. First, we're excited to share that the large oncology partnership we announced in November is with Highmark. We're obviously thrilled to have been selected by such a marquee plan. Since November, we have also expanded the partnership to additional geographies and capabilities. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:10:33This contract is expected to go live on May 1st, and we expect it will contribute over $550 million of revenue in 2026 and over $800 million in 2027. As we will discuss in more detail later in the call, the structure for this contract is, like Aetna, under our Enhanced Performance Suite model. Finally, we feel there are several exciting expansion opportunities with Highmark across new lines of business for oncology and across all lines of business for new specialties, and we look forward to earning that opportunity through strong performance with this initial launch. Second, we're announcing today that we have launched our Performance Suite in oncology in an additional state with an existing national partner. Beyond these signings and the robust pipeline I mentioned earlier, we're seeing very high renewal rates as well. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:11:24Across 2025, we've retained specialty TNS logos covering over 98% of 2025 revenue. Through a turbulent industry cycle, we have successfully moved our key Performance Suite relationships to the Enhanced Performance Suite model. Said simply, our current customers are opting to stay and expand with us, even as we require more protective terms. We're adding market share through new logo signings. We feel all of this data points to the value we can create and to the durability of our company. Turning to our second pillar of profitability, we continue to focus on both medical and operating expenses as described earlier. I did want to add several additional pieces of data here. In 2025, our Medical Expense Ratio, or MER... Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:12:14came in slightly better than expectations at 89%, excluding our Evolent Care Partners business, representing an improvement of just under 700 basis points versus 2024, even amid another year of high trend. We believe this performance reflects strong execution in pathway management, physician engagement, and alignment with our partners. Mario will walk you through how we're thinking about our 2026 MERs for both new business and the legacy cohort. I think you'll see that we're making two basic assumptions for the year. First, we estimate the 2026 cohort will run at 103%, inclusive of new reserves, and the total cohort will run at approximately 93%. We're assuming that 2026 oncology trend will remain high, in line with the 2025 trend. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:13:05In total, we believe these assumptions are conservative and set us up to meet or beat our numbers across the year. In our final pillar of capital structure, I'm pleased that we ended the year with strong cash generation. That, combined with the strategic divestiture of our Evolent Care Partners asset, enabled us to end the year with net debt of $782 million, below our expected range of $805 million-$840 million. With no maturities until late 2029, we believe our balance sheet strength supports near-term leverage and a clear path to long-term de-levering. Before I hand it to Mario, let me say a few words about the macro environment. We've been saying for several quarters now that demand for Evolent services has never been greater. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:13:51We believe this is borne out in our new business wins as we take share and grow our customer footprint, and this reality continues to be true. The managed care industry, our core customer base, is in the middle of a multi-year margin recovery cycle. To manage their own profitability targets, we see health plans are turning to companies like Evolent that have proven solutions to lower costs while improving quality for their members. At the same time, as we're expanding our business with new partners, the industry is navigating through a period of contracting membership, which presents near-term headwinds for our business as well. We believe we have a clear strategy for navigating through this dynamic moment. First, we will use this moment to seek to capture share, expanding our customer footprint under strong terms. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:14:38Demand for our product is such that we can be selective in our partnerships and highly disciplined in our underwriting. Second, we will use our scale and customer volume to drive operating efficiency within our products, enabling us, we believe, to deliver margin expansion over time. We've committed to using technology and AI from our Machinify asset acquisition to get to our long-term goal to automatically approve 80% of baseline authorization volume across our products, an outcome that we believe will improve patient and provider experience while driving down our cost structure. We made great progress on this front in 2025, seeing our imaging auto authorization rates in key test areas go up dramatically in areas where we deployed this technology. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:15:25For example, through this optimization, our real-time auto authorization rate for chest CT scans rose by over 11 points, and cervical spine MRI rose by 16 points. In 2026, we'll be deploying additional AI capabilities that will provide additional auto authorization increases. Third, we'll continue to innovate our product and its value for our customers to ensure that we are the leading specialty platform in the market. As an example of our product investments, one of our Blue Cross partners recently published data showing an approximately 40% reduction in hospitalizations and ER visits for patients who use our new cancer navigation solution. Fourth, and finally, we will achieve these goals within the context of our current balance sheet, continue to prioritize debt paydown as our primary capital allocation focus. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:16:18I do believe we have the right plan, an incredible board and team, and the right product to meet this moment, and I remain highly confident in Evolent's future. As I hand it to Mario to go over the numbers, I will just note that Mario's been at Evolent across the last 90 days. He's already had a huge positive impact on the company, and I'm highly confident in his leadership and approach going forward. Mario? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:16:44Thank you, Seth. I'm excited to be here and energized by the opportunity ahead. Let me begin with Q4 2025 financial performance. Q4 revenue totaled $469 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $37.8 million, which exceeded the midpoint of guidance. After adjusting for our ACO divestiture, baseline fiscal year 2025 revenue was $1.7 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $141 million. Next, let's review our 2025 medical expense ratio, or MER, which represents Performance Suite claims as a percentage of Performance Suite revenue. For the full year, MER was 89%, excluding ECP, with oncology trend tracking in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, MER was 95%, excluding ECP, driven primarily by out-of-period true-ups as we recognized a full year of savings shared with clients. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:17:59While these timing items temporarily elevated MER, underlying medical trend remained stable throughout the year, demonstrating the consistency of our results and reinforcing our strong momentum heading into 2026. I know we have not discussed MER in great length in the past. However, given that Performance Suite revenue will represent more than 2/3 of our business in 2026 and beyond, MER will become the most transparent and consistent way to evaluate performance, so we will provide you with greater visibility into changes in MER going forward. Turning to 2025 expenses, outside of the MER calculation, such as non-claims cost of revenue and SG&A, non-claims expenses totaled approximately $765 million for the year and approximately $190 million for the quarter. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:19:02Our quarterly non-claims cost was lower as a result of cost initiatives and lower expense accruals, more than offset the elevated MER for the quarter. We expect non-claims costs to be meaningfully lower in 2026 as efficiency initiatives continue to materialize. More detail on that shortly. Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, our cash flow from operations was $39 million, total net change in cash and cash equivalents increased by $48 million, bringing year-end cash to $152 million. We finished the year with net debt of $782 million, below the range we discussed during the last call. Please note that this did include a $15 million overpayment from a client, which, when repaid, will negatively impact 2026 cash flow. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:20:07Finally, we recorded a large non-cash goodwill impairment due to market valuation declines, which has no impact on EBITDA or cash flow. Let me now turn to our outlook, where there are four main topics shaping 2026. First, we expect strong Performance Suite growth, with revenue reaching an all-time high. While this increase in revenue creates a powerful foundation for EBITDA acceleration, it also creates a temporary headwind in 2026 due to our reserving methodologies and the timing of implementation of the new contracts. Second, Specialty TNS 2026 performance is experiencing a significant headwind from exchange membership declines consistent with the entire industry. Excluding this impact, we expect the Specialty TNS business to deliver modest underlying growth in 2026. Finally, I will also discuss Administrative Services as well as the impact of our cost reduction efforts. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:21:26With these items in mind, let me dive into our revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year. Overall, our revenue outlook is $2.4 billion-$2.6 billion, driven primarily by new Performance Suite launches, reflecting both higher membership and a more favorable PMPM mix towards Medicare. We have a bridge on page seven of the earnings deck showing the key drivers of 2026 revenue compared to 2025. The significant Performance Suite revenue increase from new contracts to be launched during the year is partially offset by approximately $100 million of lost revenue from existing Performance Suite clients due to exchange-related membership contraction and some plans exiting unprofitable markets. We also continue to see solid TNS revenue growth across both existing and new accounts. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:22:29However, this growth was more than offset by the decline in exchange membership associated with the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill. As Seth noted, while we did experience sufficient organic growth to offset the decline from a membership standpoint, there was unfavorable mix shift within these members, which contributed to a reduction in blended PMPM and total revenue. Finally, we did experience some churn in our Administrative Services business, notably related to one customer who was acquired by a large national plan that subsequently insourced our services. As we've noted before, the Administrative Services business represents a legacy portion of our portfolio, and we continue to manage it efficiently while focusing our strategic efforts on the higher-growth Performance Suite and Specialty TNS businesses. We do not believe our remaining Administrative Services contracts have that same acquisition-related risk that impacted us in 2025. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:23:42Let's now turn to our 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Our Adjusted EBITDA outlook for the year is $110 million-$140 million. Page eight of the earnings deck provides a bridge summarizing the key drivers of the year-over-year changes in Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance, and I will walk through each of the components now. Starting with the Performance Suite and assuming the midpoint of guidance, we expect the existing Performance Suite business to contribute $35 million of additional profitability despite the decline in revenue discussed earlier. This improved performance is driven by the continued realization of savings from our clinical programs, our clients' rationalization of underperforming markets, and the impact of the contract amendments Seth described earlier. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:24:43On the other hand, while our new launches will drive meaningful Adjusted EBITDA acceleration over time as they scale, they are creating a $25 million headwind to 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance, reflecting the timing of implementation and our conservative reserving approach. This represents a shift from our prior expectation of roughly break-even performance in 2026 and is driven by two key factors. First, we have an appropriately conservative approach to reserving for new contracts, despite our significantly improved processes and new contract protections. Over time, we expect this headwind to dissipate as reserves are released, but this does create some pressure in the first few months of the new contracts. Second, the losses of the midyear launches are higher than expected because of higher-than-expected membership volumes. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:25:53This is offsetting some of the positive lifts from other new contracts that are launching very early in the year. As you can see on page nine of the earnings deck, the new contracts will temporarily raise our 2026 medical expense ratio. As a result, we expect MER to be approximately 93% at the midpoint of 2026 guidance, compared to 89%, excluding ACP, in 2025. We do expect MER to rise at the start of the year due to higher reserve requirements associated with new contracts being implemented on January first. We see MER continuing to climb and peaking in the third quarter as we onboard Highmark and further strengthen claims reserves, as well as experience normal seasonality. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:26:50From there, we expect MER to steadily improve through year-end as we realize modest in-year savings from our clinical programs and realize other favorable accruals in Q4. This progression provides a clear and positive path towards sustained margin expansion as our new contracts mature. It is important to note that our underlying medical claims are expected to remain roughly consistent throughout the year. We're not assuming a rapid clinical improvement in 2026, even as our teams work to drive performance gains. Due to our new contract reserving methodology and the expected progression of MER throughout the year, we anticipate that EBITDA will be 70% weighted towards the back half of 2026. At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, with a $10 million-$15 million sequential improvement per quarter in both Q3 and Q4. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:28:03This pattern is fully aligned with the timing of our contract implementations, the reserve dynamics in the early part of the year, and the growing benefit of our operating initiatives as the year progresses. As our newly launched contracts mature and our clinical and operational programs take hold, we believe we are well positioned to deliver this earnings trajectory with increasing momentum across 2026 and beyond. It is also worth noting, as we discuss 2026 guidance, that our new contracts include significant downside protections, and because we are reserving these contracts at elevated MER levels, we believe our downside exposure in 2026 is very limited. Our Performance Suite, MER, is the most direct indicator of how the business is progressing throughout the year and how we are tracking relative to expectations, despite some occasional in-year volatility. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:29:12While MER can already be derived from our 10-K, we will be introducing enhanced disclosures to provide even greater transparency for investors. Moving on to specialty TNS, one of the major factors affecting 2026 EBITDA is the contraction in exchange membership resulting from the one big beautiful bill. This creates a one-time $40 million headwind to specialty TNS revenue in 2026, consistent with the high-end possibility of a 40% decline in exchange membership we discussed on our last call, net of acuity shifts. Future changes in subsidies or exchange enrollment, either before or after the midterms, could provide upside, our current outlook reflects the full impact of this contraction. Excluding the impact of exchange membership, TNS, at the midpoint of guidance, is expected to contribute $5 million of incremental revenue and margin in 2026, driven by growth in membership. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:30:27Unfortunately, this new membership growth is unfavorable from a revenue mix standpoint, so it is not sufficient to offset exchange-related membership losses. However, this does show how demand continues to grow for our specialty TNS solutions. Finally, Administrative Services churn, as mentioned earlier, is meaningful but is being more than offset by a $50 million year-over-year workforce reduction and efficiencies gained across the enterprise. This includes the $20 million saving we realized by Q4 2025 that Seth mentioned earlier. Speaking of expense reductions, let me provide additional clarity on those ongoing efforts, which is a big area of focus for our team going forward, and discuss how they will flow through our 2026 financials. With the previously mentioned expectation of 93% MER for Performance Suite, we project approximately $1.7 billion of medical claims expense for the year. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:31:36The remaining expense base, which includes cost of revenue, excluding medical claims, but including medical device costs and SG&A, is expected to be approximately $675 million at the midpoint of guidance. The $675 million reflects a $90 million reduction from 2025 levels. Approximately $40 million of the decrease is driven by the divestiture of Evolent Care Partners, while the remaining $50 million reflects the impact of our efficiency initiatives already in motion, including targeted cost actions taken across the organization. If I put it all together, I expect our Q4 run rate EBITDA to be at least $150 million. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:32:30Should we achieve the Performance Suite 7%-10% target margin on the forecasted $2.2 billion annualized Performance Suite revenue exiting 2026, we expect to generate roughly $160 million-$220 million in total margin. This is roughly $30 million-$100 million higher than the approximately $125 million of Performance Suite contribution that is in the midpoint of the 2026 guide. We believe this potential tailwind is the most important factor that will drive shareholder returns over the coming years. Finally, as you can see on page 6 of the pack, the Enhanced Performance Suite contract structure can create asymmetric upside for shareholders over time. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:33:25Specifically, if you look at the new launches for 2026, we are forecasting these new contracts to run at 103% MER for the year at the midpoint of the guidance. In the event of a 7% MER degradation to 110% MER, that would drive a negative $13 million EBITDA impact. A 7% improvement to just 96% MER, or getting less than half of our target margin, would drive a $57 million EBITDA improvement. Please note that because we expect Adjusted EBITDA to build throughout the year, our leverage ratios will be higher earlier on and should begin to decline meaningfully in the second half. It is important to note that we are confident our current balance sheet and debt terms provide ample flexibility to manage this temporary dynamic as we ramp these large new contracts. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:34:35Turning to cash flow, an item we're watching very closely, we anticipate generating at least $10 million-$20 million in cash flow from operations after paying approximately $60 million in cash interest expense. Part of the decrease from 2025 is the client overpayment from Q4 that we mentioned earlier, as well as $11 million of previously classified dividends, which are now reclassified as interest expense and moved into cash flow from operations. We also expect to invest between $25 million-$30 million in software development and CapEx in 2026. With these financial considerations in mind, let me close with a brief comment on the organization. I want to acknowledge the exceptional work of the Evolent team and where we stand as a company. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:35:28While there is a significant amount of work ahead, I believe we're well positioned to execute at a high level and accelerate growth as our new partnerships come online throughout 2026. We have a strong foundation, a disciplined financial plan, and a team fully aligned around delivering for our partners and driving sustainable value for our shareholders. I'm confident in our ability to navigate the near-term challenges and to capitalize on the substantial opportunity in front of us. With that, operator, we can open the line for questions. Operator00:36:06Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question only. For additional questions, you may reenter the queue. The first question will come from Charles Rhyee with TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Analyst at TD Cowen00:36:38Hi, this is Lucas on for Charles. Thanks for taking the question. Can you help us understand a little bit more about the rationale and what's driving the conservative approach to reserving? Presumably, this is for the CVS contract. It's our understanding that initially you guys are reserving for a 0% MER, because your fees match the expected acuity of the population you're about to serve. Here we're looking at a MER of 103%. I guess, can you help us understand, you know, what's driving this? You said new membership is expected to drive this MER higher. It's also our understanding that the enhanced contract allows you to retrospectively, you know, adjust the fees for this change in acuity. Analyst at TD Cowen00:37:35I guess, why is that still driving a loss here, if that makes sense? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:37:45The, you know, the first thing I'll point out is when we have new contracts, we do reserve, and we have a different level of reserves in ongoing business. That's a big part of what you're seeing with the ramp-up. We have $900 million of new business revenue this year, it's a very meaningful part of our profitability. These initial reserves are more conservative. In the beginning, there are lots of new data flow, implementation that can impact the profitability and the claims coming through. This framework is not new. It's something we've developed over the last couple of years, and follows GAAP. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:38:32The other piece, as you can see on the EBITDA bridge, is when we do that and we ramp up IBNR, there is an explicit margin that's added. It's about $13 million, and that's just, again, a good reserve accounting that we have. That's why the new contracts typically have that impact. Operator00:38:54The next question will come from John Stansel with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. John StanselEquity Research Associate at JPMorgan00:39:01Great. Thanks for taking my question. wanted to quickly hone in. I know it's early, but given kind of some of your early indicators, what you're seeing with new membership early on this year, behavior, anything kind of different than you saw last year? I know last year kind of progressed in line with your trends. Thanks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:39:21Yeah. Hey, hey, John, it's Seth. I'll take that one. Let's start with exchanges. I think, you know, I mentioned on the call, we're assuming about a 40% reduction, and the early indicators we're getting from our client base are consistent with that, and we're obviously in touch, close touch with our clients. That number is obviously very different than if we had a different footprint of clients. I think more of that decline is from our clients proactively choosing to step away from risk pools as opposed to, you know, members not renewing because the subsidy changes or something like that. I think, again, that one feels like a reasonably conservative assumption. We won't know for sure until in Q2 how the members fully enroll or not, but I think that's it on exchanges. We're trying to be quite conservative. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:40:13On MA, I'd say it's, you know, mixed. We have a couple clients who exited a bunch of markets and lost membership materially. We have a couple clients who gained a lot of membership net. It was sort of a push for us, across the year. Medicaid has been kind of status quo and not much change there. Operator00:40:36The next question will come from Daniel Grosslight with Citi. Please go ahead. Daniel GrosslightSenior Research Analyst at Citi00:40:41Hi, thanks for taking the question. Just a housekeeping question to begin with. It looks like stock-based comp has been, you know, pretty variable over the past few quarters, and I'm just curious how we should be modeling that. My real question is on capital deployment for 2026, just given the limited free cash flow that you do have available, and it does seem like you are focused on deleveraging. If you just look at the debt markets right now, especially for you guys, you seem to be particularly dislocated, let's call it. Your debt is trading at a significant discount. Daniel GrosslightSenior Research Analyst at Citi00:41:24I'm curious what your propensity is to go into the open market and buy down debt. Obviously, you know, you have to be careful about messaging, all that, but curious on how you're thinking about liability management, given how steep of a discount your debt is trading at. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:41:41Yep. So, on the stock comp, I wouldn't change your assumptions. I think we're going to be in line with what you guys have seen in the past for the year. You know, it's a good question. We see the same thing. We're obviously very aware of how our convertible is trading. You know, it's not. Right now, we're focusing on deleveraging by making sure we can execute. We also have, as I said, a very good, strong, flexible balance sheet, even though leverage is higher than we would like. We also have some cash and undrawn capacity. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:42:19We feel like we're in a good position, but it is difficult, just given the dynamic of the ramp-up this year, to go out and do much other than what we're doing, which is focused on the business. Obviously, if there are any opportunities to do good liability management and add shareholder value that way, we will look at it and weigh that against other things like cash on the balance sheet. We are very aware of that dynamic, Daniel. Thank you. Operator00:42:49The next question will come from Jailendra Singh with Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Jailendra SinghManaging Director at Truist Securities00:42:55Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. First, a quick clarification. Just trying to reconcile your comment about second half. At one point, you said that you expect fourth quarter run rate to be around $150 million, but you're also expecting 70% of 2026 EBITDA to come in second half, which would imply much higher run rate. Is there something, a dynamic between Q3 and Q4 we should be aware of, or are there some non-recurring items second half, which should not be part of annual run rate? That's a quick clarification, if you can. My main question is around, can you talk about your oncology cost trend expectations for 2026? If you can update, like, how did you end up on 2025 compared to your 12% expectation you had for the year? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:43:37Sure. Yeah, that's a very good question. Yes, there are some reversals in the reserve in the fourth quarter and contractual impacts. Not a huge amount, but that's why there's a little bit of a difference between the implied Q4 number that you may be calculating and what Seth said is the implied run rate at that point. That's part of the reserve requirement process this year with the new business. There is a little bit of that happening. On your second question, yeah, we are seeing sort of very stable trend on the oncology side, on both, really across the board. We have looked at 2026 in a very similar trend level as 2025. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:44:33I will say, given one of the things that Seth talked about and we have in the earnings deck, our contracts now work in such a way that not every point of trend is the same. We have a number of different mechanisms to adjust trend for things out of our control. A 15% trend, as long as it's being caused by the change event metrics that we have in our contracts, may not be a big headwind for us. We will continue to provide flavor with trend because that will impact MER, but we just want you guys to keep that in mind, the way our contracts work now, there's some very specific things that accrue to us on the trend side, and it really depends where the, where the change is coming from. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:45:24Jailendra, the last thing I'd add on the oncology trend side, I think the baseline that we saw across 25 and what we're expecting for 26, again, is consistent, not up or down in 26 relative to 25. We, again, 25 came in roughly where we thought. Operator00:45:46The next question will come from Jared Haase with William Blair. Please go ahead. Jared HaaseSenior Research Associate at William Blair00:45:52Hey, good evening. Thanks for taking the questions. Appreciate all the details as it relates to the EBITDA outlook. Maybe I'll ask one on the pipeline, I think there was a bullet point in the earnings deck. You mentioned the late-stage contract opportunities that could provide additional upside here in 2026. I just wanted to sort of flesh that pipeline opportunity out a bit more, kind of understand how that's weighted to Performance Suite versus TNS. I guess, you know, a specific part of the question here would be if that is weighted, excuse me, to larger Performance Suite deals, could that potentially lead to, you know, an additional drag in the back half of the year if those do come to fruition? Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:46:32Yeah, thanks for the question, Jared. A couple things on the pipeline. I'd say, you know, I think I've been saying this for maybe a year and a half, about the challenges that managed care companies have do translate into pipeline activity for us, that's definitely bearing out growth rate this year, the size of the pipeline. It continues to be really balanced, Jared, to be honest, between Performance Suite and Tech and Services. We have some very significant Tech and Services opportunities. We happen to announce, you know, talk about 2 big Performance Suite opportunities today, there are a number of both that could affect, you know, the growth rates over time, I think we feel really good about the growth rates over time. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:47:17I would not worry about announcing a new Performance Suite deal that creates a new drag on 2026. That is not something that we're going to be doing this year, with the new Performance Suite contract. I think there are some go lives on the Tech and Services side that, you know, could provide some modest upside. I think the thing you should take away is that the 2026 framework is pretty well locked down at this point. We don't have a, you know, go gets that we need to go figure out on the revenue side. Really all of this I'm talking about is for 2027, and it's a nice blend of, you know, Tech Services and Performance Suite. Operator00:47:56The next question will come from Jessica Tassan with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Jessica TassanSenior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler00:48:02Hi, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Mario, congrats on the first official earnings call. We appreciate all the new disclosure, but obviously we've been kind of burned by the Performance Suite business before. Just why should we be confident that the 103% MLR on new contracts in 2026 reflects conservatism versus inadequate pricing on new business? Just, I think your 2025 results kind of imply about a 9% OpEx burden on Performance Suite revenue to get to, you know, approximately a 2% Performance Suite EBITDA margin. Just what is the MLR and OpEx combo to get us to those 7%-10% long-term target margins in the Performance Suite? Thank you. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:48:43Hey, hey, Jess. I'll take the first one. Look, I think the main thing that I would focus on with respect to the new business is the structure of the contract. You know, we have a slide in the pack that shows you the asymmetry of how that works, number one. Number two, you know, at 103, we're definitely underwriting out of the gates, we think, at a very conservative place. You know, you've been able to apply the combo of conservative underwriting and a good contract does create that asymmetry that we talked about. In the last, third to last factor that Mario commented on his run, is I think we've taken all that and also applied it to how we guide it for the year. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:49:30Meaning you got accounting policies and reserving, and 103 does a certain set of things, and then just generally how we land on the guide across all the factors of the business. We tried to, you know, orient towards conservatism and new CFO part of that, I think is a good and healthy dynamic in terms of being conservative. That's how it started. On the OpEx thing, I think the thing you got to think about is flow-through economics. That 2%, I didn't totally track all the math, but each incremental $1 of care margin in the Performance Suite is disproportionately going to fall to EBITDA, Jess, because there is some variable OpEx, but it's not, you know, it's a more of a fixed cost investment on a lot of that. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:50:15You know, I think the 7%-10%, we feel really good about. I think we're, you know, achieving that today on the legacy cohort as a for instance, and, feel really good about being able to get there with the whole book over time. Operator00:50:29The next question will come from Jeff Garro with Stephens. Please go ahead. Jeff GarroManaging Director at Stephens00:50:34Yeah, good afternoon, guys, and thanks for taking the question. I'll stick on the MER front and, you know, trying to think about that 89% actual performance for 2025, and then the 93% expectation for the full book of business for 2026, that has the drag of $900 million at that 103%. My implied math is there's on the remaining Performance Suite business from 2025-2026, there's some improvement, pretty modest, but we'd love to hear you explain more about the specific drivers of improvement and opportunity, even beyond what's, you know, kind of underwritten in that 93% full year 2026 expectation for the kind of remaining Performance Suite business, and, you know, much of which is already on those new contract structures. Thanks. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:51:30Sure. I think it's just along the same things we've talked about. It's because we have so much new business, upwards of $900 million, we expect this year in new Performance Suite business. As typical, we're not unusual. We are reserving. We have to build up reserves. We have to build up IBNR over the first few months. Because, as I said, the new relationships, new data flow, just the teams working together, we do have a framework that tends to be more conservative on the reserving side. That doesn't last all that long, but for, especially contracts that start in the middle of the year, once you get over that initial reserving, you actually start looking at some benefits. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:52:18Part of what you're seeing in the fourth quarter is reversal of some of that. The base business has continued to perform well. That's why the blend is at 93%, which is worse than last year. It's primarily the new business driving up MER, offset by continued good performance on our existing cohort. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:52:42Yeah, Jeff, I think part of the question, too, is: Okay, how does the existing cohort get a little bit better? There's some ongoing clinical initiative, but there's also some contractual things. I'd say the majority of the improvement is what I would call contractual in nature, which gives us a lot of confidence in it, as opposed to, you know, go get on the clinical side. Operator00:53:03The next question will come from Matthew Gilmore with KeyBank. Please go ahead. Matthew GilmoreEquity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets00:53:09Hey, good afternoon. Just following up on some earlier questions, I'd be curious if you could just orient us around some of the swing factors in terms of the high end of the EBITDA guide versus the low end. Is trend on oncology costs are the main one to think about, or are there other sort of factors that you'd orient us around? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:53:29You know, I think it's MER to start with, which is why we've started talking more about it, why we're disclosing it in a different way in our financials. Really is about MER, especially as we sit here, we think we have a good view of membership. Aside from any other exchange issues, we feel very good about where we are. Then it's the evolution of can we accelerate the savings that we're projecting? Again, as I said, trend can be a factor. We feel like we're being, you know, appropriately conservative on those metrics, especially given the new contract provisions, where not every 1 percentage of trend is the same. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:54:15We have a lot of levers to protect us in case trend is heading the wrong way for things that we don't control. That is the biggest swing factor by far. Operator00:54:30The next question will come from Richard Close with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead. Richard CloseManaging Director at Canaccord Genuity00:54:36... Yeah, a couple questions. Seth, earlier on, when you talked about exchanges, you said something about return to growth over time, and I'm just curious, you know, what goes into that comment? A follow-up with Mario, just, you know, your thoughts. You've been here 90 days, I guess, on the ground. Sounds like your fingerprints are on the guidance, and some of the new disclosures. Just curious, you know, maybe your thoughts in terms of any changes you're thinking about going forward, that would be helpful. Thanks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:55:20Yeah, I'll start on the exchange and then pass it to Mario. Richard, what I'd say is two things on exchange. One is, if you go just look at how consumers have bought that product in the marketplace, it has had growth to it that go outside of subsidy swings, and there is interest in the product generally. We have this dislocation from subsidies being pulled back and risk pools are getting shifted. I think over time, the idea of consumers using it to buy product probably will come back over some time period, and whatever the growth rate that'll be, that'll be. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:55:56Second factor is, you know, more of a wild card, but, you know, should there be a change in the midterms or legislation or anything like that to adjust how subsidies work, that could be, you know, more of a step up in membership, which we're obviously not counting on either of those two things in the 26 number. You know, could be something in the out years. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:56:22It's been a great 90 days or a long 90 days. If anything, I'm more excited to be here than I thought I'd be. Team is amazing. You know, I think what we do is at the heart of what we need more of to fix what's wrong in healthcare. All that feels really great. I've tried to partner with Seth and figure out a way in how we communicate with all of you and our other investors with more clarity, transparency, and how it directly correlates to what you're seeing in the financial statement. I think if anything, I will try to continue to do that. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:57:00The MER, in my mind, gets us quite a bit of the way to a place where we're doing that. We will continue to look at new and improved ways to try to communicate with you guys so you can understand how our business is performing and holding us accountable. Operator00:57:20The next question will come from David Larsen with BTIG. Please go ahead. David LarsenManaging Director at BTIG00:57:26Hi, can you talk about what your mature Performance Suite, EBITDA margins look like? What is that percentage? How long does it take to get there? Then just over time, like in 2027, 2028, 30% revenue growth, that's high, that's great, but it seems like it's coming at the cost of margin degradation and free cash flow. Like, why not grow revenue, let's call it, like, 10% or 15% year-over-year, and focus on more EBITDA growth, EBITDA margin growth, and free cash flow and debt paydown? Thank you. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:58:08I think we're not gonna talk, we don't talk about EBITDA margin, but we can talk generally about our sort of existing book of business. When you look at the MERs that we're disclosing today around the new cohort and what we had at the end of 2025, you're getting to a pretty good care margin. We talked around 7%-10%. The existing book is doing a little bit better than that, partly because of what Seth said, we're getting some contractual adjustments that improve our base rate, which aren't temporary, but they won't happen every year. They'll stay there, they just won't happen every year. You know, for the whole book of business, I think we're feeling very good about how it's performing. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health00:58:55I think I'll let Seth comment on the focus, profitability versus growth. I just, you know, to me, coming in, understanding the Highmark relationship, some things are just, they're great for the business, and it may create short-term pressure. The long term is, we wanna create value. You know, we know that we can lay this out for you guys, so you see the huge opportunity we have in front of us with that partnership, with the current revenue this year, even though from a profitability standpoint, we will have to execute to get it to the point that we know we can, like the rest of the business that we have. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health00:59:39Yeah, David, I'd add just one other thing, which is, you know, the Performance Suite, we think is the best way to create value for our partners, which we got to start with them, and we think it's more economically attractive on a per-life basis for us as well. You know, I think particularly when you have the enhanced model, more predictability and the like, you're willing to go through a period of investment to get there. It's kind of what Mario just said, but I do think it's important that the pie of value is bigger under the Performance Suite than Tech and Services. When you choose between those two products, you know, we, the enhanced Tech and Services we think is the better of the two products. If the client wants Tech and Services, we'll obviously do that. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:00:33We'll do whatever they are interested in doing. You know, in terms of the investment ramps and the like, again, I think to Mario's point, you find a partner who's a great partner, and they're interested in creating a partnership together. You do that because it's going to create value over time. I think we're making the right decisions to maximize the value of the company. Operator01:00:58The next question will come from Matthew Shea with Needham. Please go ahead. Matthew SheaAnalyst at Needham & Company01:01:02Hey, thanks for taking the question. Appreciate the update that 90% of the Performance Suite contracts now have the enhanced protections in risk corridors. Of the 10% that have not migrated, you know, to the scope is limited and protections are not economically warranted. Could you just update us on what is in that 10%? It sounds like that will stay without protection. How are you thinking about those contracts longer term? Would you eventually look to migrate or sunset those, or do you have confidence in them, even without the protections? Thanks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:01:38Matthew, I would expect almost all of those to move to the enhanced as well. Maybe there's a couple % of the, of the 100 that are, you know, never migrate, but I think it's gonna be high 90s at some point, would be my guess. I can't guarantee that, but I think that's where it's headed. I think it's the right call for our partners and the right call for us. It kind of gets everything into a standard structure. That's how I think about it. Operator01:02:04The next question will come from Sean Dodge with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Sean DodgeManaging Director, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets01:02:11Yeah, thanks. Maybe just on the cost efforts you mentioned, Mario Ramos, for 2026, you said you expect $50 million of that to be captured within the year. Just the timeline on those, are those going to unfold pretty randomly across the year, or are they more kind of early year or later year, kind of more heavily weighted? I guess just how should we think about the run rate benefit of those going into 2027? Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health01:02:36Yeah. Those are baked obviously, in the adjusted EBITDA guidance, you know, into the cost base that is implied by the guidance. I would say Seth talked a lot about, you know, getting $20 million last year in AI and automation initiatives. Those already happened at the end of 2025. Of the 50, 20 were done then. We did another big portion of the remaining 30 in early this year, and there will be a piece that we will continue to get throughout the year. It's largely running through. As I said, when you look at what we've guided to and the cost base implied by that, the $50 million is in there. Mario RamosCFO at Evolent Health01:03:20There isn't a ton of wrap or additional run rate because they were mostly they were almost be done early in the year. Operator01:03:29The next question will come from Kevin Caliendo with UBS. Please go ahead. Kevin CaliendoManaging Director at UBS01:03:35Hey, guys, thanks. Thanks for getting me in after I dropped out of queue. I appreciate the downside protection of your new contracts. I really want to understand, when you are signing new business, what kind of IRR or ROIC are you modeling out or shooting for? I get maybe it's not as high as it used to be because you have, you know, lower downside. Obviously, there's risk-reward here. When you're modeling this out, what are you aiming to achieve? Like, what's the target return? How do you think about when that return is going to come about? Year one, year two, year three, et cetera. Just trying to understand from a modeling perspective, how to think about it, how you guys think about it, how we should think about it in terms of total returns. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:04:28Yeah, let me add a little bit more color to how we think about these contracts, which I think will partly answer your question. There's a spectrum from tech and services, right? Where it's, there's no investment and no downside, all the way to the Performance Suite enhanced model, where you might have 10% margin, but you have some downside. There are things in between. You know, we are underwriting around our cost of capital at Evolent. You don't want to be over 20%, you know, cost of capital return, which gives you space in between our cost of capital and a good return. Again, you have to look at how much downside exposure is there in the opportunity versus how much upside is. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:05:08That's how we would think about it is, you know, clearing a 20% hurdle rate at least. Operator01:05:15The next question will come from Ryan Halstead with RBC. Please go ahead. Ryan HalsteadManaging Director at RBC Capital Markets01:05:21Thanks for squeezing me in. My question is again focusing on the MER, obviously a key KPI and oncology cost trends is also clearly a big contributor to that. I mean, is there for the portion of the risk that you are controlling or at risk for, is there a good way of looking ahead at kind of what would be, you know, the swing factors into that portion, whether it be, you know, is it prescribing patterns of higher costs therapeutics? Is that sort of the piece of the oncology cost trends that you're still most exposed to, I guess, or in control of? Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:06:08Yep. Yep. Great question. Yeah, I would think about it as follows. Probably 80% of what we're exposed to or in charge of managing would be the therapeutic, and 20% would be other costs, which might be radiation therapy or things like that. Within the therapeutic exposure that we have, we carve out new drugs and indications or things that are, you know, not in our control. Things that would be in our control would be, you know, for a given cohort of patients that are receiving similar types of treatment, what is the average cost of the therapeutic for that case, plus the 20% of other? That's, that's really how we think about it. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:06:54I think that's our unique value proposition, is being able to manage the therapeutic, you know, dosing, selection, timing, et cetera. You guys know, I'll use checkpoint inhibitors as an example that everybody understands. They've been very high cost, drugs like KEYTRUDA or OPDIVO or others. You know, the duration of that. Is the patient on it for 90 days, 120 days, 150 days? If it's not working, are you able to get onto a new therapy quicker? What's the number of vials, you know, or dosage that are open, et cetera? It's all of those decisions, which again, are very tied to the patient profile and the genome and deeply clinical decision-making, which is really the core of, you know, the clinical work we do. Operator01:07:40This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Seth Blackley for any closing remarks. Seth BlackleyCEO at Evolent Health01:07:48I thank you for joining tonight. It's great to have Mario on the team, and I just want to say a big thank you to the entire Evolent team. It's been a, you know, a lot going on over the last year and a half. Our team is highly committed to the mission of this company. I'm really proud of them, and I'm very confident that the team and I and the board are gonna deliver for our shareholders, and I'm excited about that. Operator01:08:13The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.Read moreParticipantsExecutivesMario RamosCFOSeth BlackleyCEOAnalystsDaniel GrosslightSenior Research Analyst at CitiDavid LarsenManaging Director at BTIGJailendra SinghManaging Director at Truist SecuritiesJared HaaseSenior Research Associate at William BlairJeff GarroManaging Director at StephensJessica TassanSenior Research Analyst at Piper SandlerJohn StanselEquity Research Associate at JPMorganKevin CaliendoManaging Director at UBSMatthew GilmoreEquity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital MarketsMatthew SheaAnalyst at Needham & CompanyRichard CloseManaging Director at Canaccord GenuityRyan HalsteadManaging Director at RBC Capital MarketsSean DodgeManaging Director, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital MarketsAnalyst at TD CowenPowered by