Leon's Furniture Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 26, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Company delivered a strong 2025 with revenue of CAD 2.57 billion (+3%), system‑wide sales +2.8%, adjusted diluted EPS up ~16.5%, gross margin expanding 65 bps to 45.04%, and announced a CAD 0.50 special dividend while ending the year with CAD 603 million of unrestricted liquidity.
  • Positive Sentiment: Furniture grew 6.3% and was the primary driver of margin expansion, supported by a tighter assortment, deeper SKU positions, improved in‑stock levels, and higher‑margin mix.
  • Negative Sentiment: Commercial appliance growth contributed to 2025 top‑line but is a lower‑margin mix that management expects to moderate in 2026, creating a potential near‑term headwind to comps and margin momentum.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Management is pursuing targeted investments and efficiency moves — including ~CAD 45–50 million maintenance CapEx, two new corporate (and up to five franchise) store openings, centralized distribution tests, and AI/automation pilots — positioning the company for medium‑term gains while keeping capital deployment disciplined.
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Earnings Conference Call
Leon's Furniture Q4 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the LFL Group fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If any research analysts would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jonathan Ross, Investor Relations for LFL Group. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Ross
Principal at LodeRock Advisors

Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to LFL Group's fourth quarter and full year 2025 conference call and webcast. LFL's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results were released yesterday. The press release, financial statements, and management's discussion and analysis are available on SEDAR+ and on our website at lflgroup.ca. Joining me on the call today are Mike Walsh, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Victor Diab, Chief Financial Officer. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current assumptions and beliefs and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these assumptions and beliefs. We encourage listeners to refer to the risk factors outlined in our management's discussion and analysis and annual information form, which provide additional detail on the risks and uncertainties that could affect future results.

Jonathan Ross
Principal at LodeRock Advisors

This call also includes non-IFRS financial measures. Definitions, reconciliations, and related disclosures for these measures can be found in the management's discussion and analysis and press release issued yesterday. Forward-looking statements made during this call are current as of today. LFL Group disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise them, except as required by applicable law. All financial figures discussed today are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike Walsh. Mike?

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. In 2025, LFL Group delivered strong operational and financial performance. We grew system-wide sales by 2.8%, expanded growth margins, delivered 16.5% growth in normalized, adjusted, diluted EPS, and increased our quarterly dividend by 20%. As you would have seen, I'm also excited that yesterday the board approved a CAD 0.50 special dividend. These results reflect the efforts of our associates across the country to deliver solid performance day in and day out for our customers and our shareholders. Consumers were cautious and value-focused during 2025, leading to a challenging backdrop for retailers. At the same time, trust, service, and confidence in the retailer became increasingly important in purchase decisions, a dynamic that plays directly to our strengths. It's worth emphasizing what execution like this requires.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Strong performance in 2025 wasn't just about being more promotional. It was about discipline and judgment. Knowing where to flex in response to the consumer, how to flex, and when not to, is something that's built over time. That hard-earned knowledge is what enables us to maintain customer loyalty while delivering solid financial results and maintaining long-term pricing power in our core categories. I'm very pleased with how our teams delivered, driving consistent market share gains that translated into strong financial performance. Furniture was definitely the standout category in 2025 and an important contributor to our results, growing 6.3% for the year. We continue to execute on a focused assortment strategy, narrowing where appropriate, going deeper in our best-performing SKUs, and selectively broadening into areas of opportunity. Strong performance we generated in the category during the year was a direct result of these decisions.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Our appliance category, led by the commercial channel, also contributed meaningfully to results in 2025, supported by the delivery of previously booked multi-unit residential projects. We've continued to make solid progress across the replacement and property management segments, and we're expanding our geographic reach. Appliance Canada has historically focused its builder and developer partnerships in Ontario, but anticipating a moderation in that market and recognizing that many of these partners operate nationally, we proactively made the decision to pilot a store-within-a-store concept inside our Leon's location in Richmond, B.C. This format gives developers a dedicated destination for customer upgrades while making efficient use of infrastructure we already have in place. In-store execution remains solid in 2025. As we discussed last quarter, our e-commerce platform continues to play an important role in driving more purposeful store visits.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

We're seeing higher-intent customers walking through our doors, and our associates are well-positioned to serve them. They know the product, they understand the customer, and are focused on helping them find the right solution. Turning briefly to the fourth quarter, while we anticipated the impact of Canada Post disruptions on flyers, distribution during key promotional windows, the quarter brought some additional headwinds, increased promotional intensity in certain categories, selective consumer spending, particularly on larger discretionary items, and tougher winter weather comparisons. That said, in the context of the broader market, we're satisfied with how we performed. We managed the business with discipline and delivered profitability for shareholders. Looking ahead to 2026, we're confident in our strategic position. We do anticipate some carryover of the fourth quarter headwinds into early 2026, but our model is built for environments like this.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Same focus that has driven our performance will continue to guide us, serving customers with the value they need, growing sales and market share, protecting gross margins, maintaining cost discipline, and translating it all into earnings growth. From a category standpoint, we're building on what worked in 2025. Furniture remains our core strength, and we'll continue to go deeper where we have scale, sourcing advantages, and a clear value proposition. At the same time, we're taking a disciplined test-and-learn approach to selectively expanding our offering, where we have relevance and where it makes sense for the customer across all of our focus segments. We also see meaningful growth potential for our warranty, insurance, and service businesses over the coming years. These businesses complement the core retail platform, but we also see them becoming more meaningful contributors to results in their own right.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

We're also taking a selective approach to growing our store network in 2026. We expect to add a small number of new locations, two corporate stores, and up to five franchise stores, weighted towards the back half of the year. In parallel, we plan to move forward on some capital-light renovations and refreshes, where targeted investment can enhance customer experience and drive returns. As we've talked about before, our strategy has never been about maximizing store count. These are destination format locations with large catchment areas built around a full-service experience. Every decision we make, whether it's a new opening, a renovation, or a refresh, gets evaluated through the lens of four-wall profitability and long-term value creation. The historical results of that discipline give us the confidence to continue to grow at a measured pace rather than pursuing unit expansion for its own sake.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Beyond the store footprint, we continue to make disciplined investments in the organization to better leverage our platform and support LFL's future growth. We have added senior talent across digital and technology, diversified businesses, commercial operations, and real estate. These investments are about building capability, enabling us to move faster, integrate opportunities more effectively, and execute with greater consistency across the business. We've been steadily strengthening our technology stack to improve how we operate, how we serve our customers, and how we make decisions. This includes piloting artificial intelligence tools, as well as deploying automation across the business in marketing, supply chain, forecasting, and document management, among other areas, to drive productivity and organizational efficiency. We are in the early stages of this work, but we are encouraged by what we are seeing. Our focus remains on building a stronger, more capable organization for the long term.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

We have a proven track record of navigating cycles like this. Our scale, sourcing capabilities, distribution network, and financial strength position us well to manage near-term variability and continue gaining market share over time. With that, I'll turn it over to Victor to walk through the financial details and provide more context on the quarter and the year.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone. I'll start with the full-year walkthrough, move to a discussion of the fourth quarter, and then touch on capital allocation and a few considerations as we enter 2026. Overall, we're very pleased with our performance in 2025. For the year, revenue was CAD 2.57 billion, up 3% year-over-year. Growth was led by furniture, along with a solid contribution from the appliance category, led by the commercial channel, as Mike highlighted. In commercial, performance reflected the completion of previously secured multi-unit residential projects that moved through delivery during the year. As we've outlined, we expect developer-related revenue to moderate, and we're beginning to see that trend emerge in the early part of 2026. Gross margin expanded 65 basis points to 45.04%.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

This improvement reflects both the impact of higher-margin furniture sales and our continued focus on strengthening sourcing and vendor engagement. We've deepened relationships with our top vendors and increased purchasing penetration through our First Oceans subsidiary, driving improved cost efficiencies and supply consistency. Disciplined promotional activity and optimized pricing strategies have supported margin improvements across categories. Our SG&A rate improved to 36.48%, compared to 36.72% in 2024. This improvement was primarily driven by lower retail financing fees due to declining interest rates. We also maintained strict cost discipline and realized leverage as we grew the top line, even in an environment where there was an upward cost pressure across many areas of the P&L. Net income for the year was CAD 157 million, or CAD 2.29 per diluted share.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Normalizing for the one-time gain from the CURO settlement, adjusted net income increased by CAD 22.2 million or 16.6%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 16.5%. We're also pleased with where inventory levels sit today. Our written-to-delivered relationship is in good shape. We've continued to go deeper on certain SKUs, which has enabled us to tighten the written-to-deliver timeline. We headed into 2026 with a healthy in-stock position, good availability across key categories, and no material constraints on flow. Turning to the fourth quarter. Revenue was CAD 671.4 million, up 0.7%, with same-store sales up 0.6%. The story is consistent with what we've seen through the year.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Growth was led by furniture, where a stronger inventory position and an improved assortment enabled us to capture demand, and by appliances, where we continue to see solid growth in the commercial channel. Gross margin in the quarter was 46.08%. The year-over-year improvement reflects a favorable mix shift into higher-margin furniture, as well as a better furniture and appliance margin rates from the assortment and sourcing work we've done over the past year. This was partly offset by a higher mix of sales in the lower-margin commercial channel. SG&A, as a percentage of revenue, was 35.51%, an increase of 13 basis points versus last year. The change was primarily driven by higher occupancy and amortization, with the lease commencement of our Edmonton Distribution Centre and other renewals, higher sales commissions, and a slight deleveraging of fixed costs.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

These were partially offset by lower POS retail financing fees, as Bank of Canada interest rates moved lower. On a reported basis, adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was CAD 0.74, down from CAD 0.98 last year, reflecting the one-time CAD 23.4 million legal settlement we recorded in Q4 of 2024. If you normalize for that item, adjusted diluted EPS increased modestly year-over-year to CAD 0.74 from CAD 0.73, an increase of 1.3%. It's important to view our fourth quarter results in the context of the market-related headwinds that Mike described earlier. Even considering those factors, we continued to execute and delivered growth in normalized earnings. From a balance sheet perspective, we generated strong cash flow through 2025 and ended the year with CAD 603 million in unrestricted liquidity, including cash, marketable securities, and our fully available revolver.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

We also increased the quarterly dividend by 20%, underscoring our confidence in the strength of the business and our ability to continue generating solid cash flow. We stay attuned to returning capital to shareholders where it makes sense to do so, and as Mike said yesterday, our board approved a CAD 0.50 special dividend. Maintaining this level of liquidity is a deliberate strategic choice and one we're comfortable with. Our approach to capital allocation has been guided by a consistent focus on returns, and that means being strategic about liquidity, holding more in certain environments, less in others. Our track record reflects that discipline, and with a liquidity position that very few others in this market have, we're well-positioned to act when and where it makes sense for the long-term growth of the business. Our approach to capital deployment remains disciplined and consistent with our long-term focus.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

We prioritize reinvestment in the business where we see attractive returns, maintain a strong balance sheet, and return capital to shareholders over time, with a primary focus on our regular dividends. We also remain attuned to acquisition opportunities that fit strategically and create long-term value. Looking at 2026. On reinvestment, we expect maintenance capital expenditures to be modestly higher than our typical range. Historically, we've talked about maintenance CapEx in the CAD 35 million-CAD 40 million range. This year, we expect that to be approximately CAD 45 million-CAD 50 million, reflecting an increase in planned renovations and category-level refreshes across a portion of our network, in addition to our typical maintenance program. On the growth side, we expect to open two new corporate stores, along with up to five franchise locations towards the back half of the year.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Importantly, this level of maintenance and growth investment remains very manageable and enables us to continue generating strong free cash flow. In addition to store investments, we continue to look for opportunities to improve operating efficiency across the network. Centralized distribution is a core part of our long-term strategy as we transition from the legacy attached warehouse model toward a more efficient hub-and-spoke network over time. The closure of our Mississauga warehouse in February of 2025 delivered expected operational results, including SG&A savings and working capital benefits. We continue to track key service-level metrics as part of that evaluation, including customer experience and range to deliver timelines. Based on what we learned from Mississauga, we're evaluating a further centralized distribution initiative in another region. This would be a phased, measured test designed to build confidence on a larger scale.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

These initiatives take time to implement, but the objectives are clear: reduce inefficiencies in inventory flows, improve working capital management, and drive meaningful SG&A efficiencies over the longer term while maintaining service levels. The most significant opportunity is in Ontario, which is our largest market. We are approaching this deliberately and will continue to provide updates as we make progress. We will continue to be opportunistic in our approach to buybacks, taking advantage of volatility where it aligns with our long-term strategy. We did not repurchase any shares under our existing NCIB during the fourth quarter of the year. On M&A, we continue to evaluate opportunities that align with our core categories and retail focus, involve recognizable brands, offer a clear runway for growth, and are synergistic with our broader ecosystem.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

In an environment like this, opportunities can emerge. Our balance sheet puts us in a position to act if the right fit presents itself. I also want to briefly address tariffs, as this is an important topic for the sector. Steel derivative tariffs were implemented by the Government of Canada on December 26th, 2025. Inventory already in transit was not impacted. For new orders placed after December 26th, we're evaluating the impact and will adjust pricing where appropriate. Any pricing increases would be surgical, carefully balancing customer value with financial returns, as we have done many times before across a range of market conditions. This is an industry-wide factor. We are well-positioned to manage it, given our scale, sourcing relationships, and supply chain capabilities. One item to flag on comparisons.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

As we move through 2026, we are lapping strong performance in 2025, which creates more demanding year-over-year comparisons, particularly in the first half. This is most evident in Q1, where results last year benefited from a timing dynamic that pulled some sales forward from Q4 2024 into Q1 2025. Before handing it back, I'd like to briefly address the previously announced initiative to create a real estate investment trust. This remains an important strategic priority for us. The timing will be driven by market conditions and regulatory approvals. We'll share additional updates when appropriate. That's the only update we can provide on today's call. As Mike mentioned, we've also strengthened our real estate capabilities by adding a dedicated senior resource to provide in-house expertise across our property portfolio.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

This role is focused on helping us drive greater value from our assets, supporting our development agenda, and ensuring we are making informed, strategic decisions across the portfolio that both strengthen our core business and create value for shareholders. Entering 2026, we remain confident in our positioning. Our approach to managing the business will be consistent as we move forward, regardless of the environment. We remain focused on outperforming the market and gaining share while protecting gross margins, staying disciplined on SG&A, and driving profitability. Overall, our scale, disciplined sourcing, promotional strategies, and solid balance sheet provide the foundation to continue driving profitable growth and shareholder value over the long term. With that, I'll turn it back to Mike for closing remarks before we open the line for questions.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Thanks, Victor. To wrap up, 2025 was a strong year for LFL and one that demonstrated the consistency of our execution. In a challenging environment for many retailers, we grew revenue, expanded margins, delivered solid earnings growth, and increased our dividend. More importantly, we did that by staying focused on the fundamentals: disciplined merchandising, targeted promotions, strong execution in our stores, and a clear focus on value for the customer. These results weren't driven by short-term actions. They are a direct product of how we've built this business. The scale to negotiate directly with suppliers and secure advantage pricing. Banners that Canadians trust coast to coast, backed by a large and growing omnichannel presence. An integrated logistics infrastructure, including one of the largest final-mile delivery networks in the country. That sets us apart in how we serve customers from the store to their door.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Together, these are durable advantages that matter most when consumers are being more deliberate with their spending. They are the foundation we continue to build on. As we move into 2026, our focus remains on execution and on continuing to gain market share in our core categories. We're investing thoughtfully where we see opportunity. We're doing so from a position of strength, with a solid balance sheet and durable competitive advantages that will enable us to continue to win across cycles. Before we open the line, I want to truly thank our associates across the country, in our stores, distribution centres, and support teams for their continued commitment. Their work drives results every day. To our shareholders, thank you for your continued support. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

We'll now begin the analyst question-and-answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You'll hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. Our first question comes from Ty Collin from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Ty Collin
Ty Collin
Director of Institutional Equity Research at CIBC

Hey, good morning, Mike and Victor.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Morning.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Good morning.

Ty Collin
Ty Collin
Director of Institutional Equity Research at CIBC

Morning. Yeah, maybe just to start off on the same-store sales growth. You know, how can we kinda understand the deceleration in Q4 compared to your fairly brisk year-to-date pace up to then? Maybe specifically, you can just touch on how you've seen consumer behavior evolve into Q4 and to start off 2026 so far.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Great question, Ty. I think how I'd characterize the Q4 was it was a little choppy. We started out the fourth quarter with the Canada Post strike, as you know, that's one of our highest ROI channels with the consumer. Definitely that impacted. 50% of our network didn't have flyers going out to them, which really impacted Ontario and Quebec. The weather disruptions, our two biggest days of the year, Black Friday and Boxing Day, which had both weather events. It's really tough because in 2024, in the fourth quarter, we had the Canada Post strike, it started later in November, this year, or in 2025, it started in September.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

As you look at Boxing Day, Boxing Day is kind of a month or two-month event, now, given what happened in the pandemic.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

It spread out over a period of time, leading up to Black Friday, we had, you know, literally 50% of our flyers not going out. You know, for sure, we lean more heavily into TV, digital, SEO, SEM, and email, but those don't, those channels don't fully replace the lost flyer impressions.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Just to add there, Ty, just to build on Mike's point. I think, obviously, slower start to the quarter, just given, you know, the 50% of our network was either fully or partially impacted with no flyers. You know, I would say, we did see, on top of weather, we did see a consumer slowdown, a broader slowdown in December, just across our, you know, our brands, which tells us it's a bit of a macro thing. To Mike's point, you know, the holiday shopping period is getting longer and longer. By the time you get to, you know, December and between Black Friday and Boxing Day, we just noticed a bit more of a lull period there.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

You know, that tells us, and we did see this throughout the year, shoppers are waiting for more value. They're waiting for the bigger days. Our bigger promotional days outperformed our average days. And we continue to see, you know, evidence of a strained consumer and that, you know, we're seeing trade down happening. All of that just tells us the consumer is being cautious, they're constrained, you know, they got to prioritize, you know, where their share of wallet is going. That's just a bit more color there.

Ty Collin
Ty Collin
Director of Institutional Equity Research at CIBC

Okay, great. Is it fair to say that you've seen that more cautious consumer behavior, in December, kind of carrying over into, the first couple of months of 2026 so far?

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

I think, you know, what we saw in December, which is a little tricky, right? It was a combination of weather and the consumer pulling back. What we've seen in January is similar, in that, you know, really cold January, lots of snowfall, so we think that impacted traffic in addition to, you know, a more cautious consumer. We did see that to start the year as well.

Ty Collin
Ty Collin
Director of Institutional Equity Research at CIBC

Okay, great. Maybe, for my follow-up, I was just wondering if you could comment a little more on the promotional environment, which you called out in your comments. I mean, is there any particular set of competitors where that increased promotional activity is coming from? Is there any sign of that abating so far in 2026?

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

I think Q4 carried into Q1 from a competitive, a competitive set. I think, you know, consumers are value-driven right now, and they have been, as we've stated in previous quarters. I think all retailers are trying to play in the value prop game on different channels, and so that's gonna continue, and I don't see that abating throughout 2026.

Ty Collin
Ty Collin
Director of Institutional Equity Research at CIBC

Okay, got it. Thanks for the questions. I'll pass the line, guys.

Operator

The next question comes from Ahmed Abdullah from National Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.

Ahmed Abdullah
Ahmed Abdullah
Equity Research Analyst at National Bank of Canada

Hi, thanks for taking my question. On the commercial appliance growth that's been, you know, helping some of the top line, you've mentioned that it's a, you know, a lower margin mix. As you see some weakness, perhaps in other higher margin categories, what levers do you have to kind of protect your margins if commercial keeps outperforming?

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Well, we, you know, as we stated in previous quarters, we continue to focus on the category of furniture because that's got one of the highest gross margins that we have. So we continue to focus on that through a reduced assortment and going deeper on our inventory, so we have the product available and we can spin up the delivery time between, and a lag time between written and delivered. We also, as we said, you know, Appliance Canada is primarily in Ontario, but they have lots of their customers that are in other parts of Canada. So leveraging a store-within-a-store in Richmond, B.C., really helps us to enable Appliance Canada to play outside of Ontario, which has been, you know, severely impacted from a development perspective.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Just to answer the mix question there, to build on Mike's point there, Ahmed, you know, like we said, we know and we signaled that the commercial business is slowing down. From a sales mix perspective, we're not necessarily expecting the same level of growth going forward. We're expecting moderation, and it is a lower margin category. You know, the way we've been offsetting, despite tremendous growth in that channel over the last couple of years, our margin rate's been improving, and that's because we've been improving rate on the retail side, through stronger furniture sales mix and some of the rate initiatives that we've had. Net-net, we don't expect that to be a margin headwind going forward from a mix standpoint.

Ahmed Abdullah
Ahmed Abdullah
Equity Research Analyst at National Bank of Canada

Okay. On the flip side of that comment, are you thinking about your promotional cadence into 2026 to drive margin tailwind as such, that would push your adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026, assuming there's revenue growth, higher?

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Yeah, I think the way you got to look at rate, right. You know, we operate pretty proud of sort of the improvements that, you know, the team's been able to make over the last couple of years. We're happy with kind of where we are at this level. We got to balance a few things. Obviously, sales mix, you know, the way we've done it is primarily through sales mix and rate core product rate improvements, not through price. We've got to keep the consumer in mind there, right. Our primary focus is provide value to the consumer, grow market share, and grow it profitably. We tend to operate, you know, margin within a range, right.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

If you look at our history, we're pretty disciplined, we're consistent, and we gradually improve over time, but we pick and choose when we're gonna do that, and we've got to be very cautious in this environment and a value-oriented environment, in terms of, you know, when we flex up or down on categories and overall. Again, I would kind of point you to we've, you know, made good improvements. We're kind of satisfied at this level today. There's upside, you know, in the medium and longer term, but it'll depend on overall sales mix. It's kind of the way we look at it.

Ahmed Abdullah
Ahmed Abdullah
Equity Research Analyst at National Bank of Canada

Okay. Just if I can squeeze one more, follow-up. On Ty's comment around the Canada Post disruption, clearly you see value in the medium and continuing the use of flyers going forward. Were you able to estimate or quantify the impact that Canada Post cost you this quarter?

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

You know, look, the way I would answer, we're not gonna, you know, throw out numbers. Obviously, there's lots of variables in terms of sales, and we're not gonna specifically break those things out. You know, I would point to, again, the key drivers in terms of, you know, one, we thought the quarter in the grand scheme of things, we thought the top line, growing sales, growing profitability, that's a good result, right? I think the momentum heading into the quarter and, you know, your comment about the step back, I think those are three factors that we talked about. You know, the flyer impact to start the quarter, the broader December slowdown and weather on some of our—

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Weather just in general, but on some of the bigger days, like Boxing Day and leading up to Black Friday, was adverse weather conditions, especially relative to last year. I would just kind of look at it like that, but we're not gonna throw specific numbers out there. There's just too many variables.

Ahmed Abdullah
Ahmed Abdullah
Equity Research Analyst at National Bank of Canada

All right. It was worth a shot. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Martin Landry from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Analyst at Stifel

Good morning, guys. It's Jesse filling in for Martin. Thanks for taking my call. I was wondering how promotions performed over the last year and how you expect them to perform how to go over into the new year? Particularly, maybe get some color on which campaigns worked and which didn't.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Yeah, listen, thanks for the question. Like, you know, like, as I said, maybe earlier, you know, what we saw throughout the year is our bigger promotional days just outperform on our average days, so it does tell us that our promotions are working. You know, the one, the one sort of element or, you know, for LFL, just in general, is we're, you know, our objective is to provide value to the consumer throughout the year, right? We're always focused on value. We leverage our scale, and we leverage it well to provide value throughout the year. We did see, in general, our bigger promotional days outperform our average days, and that just tells you where the consumer mindset is.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

It does tell us that, you know, our promotions are working really well for us.

Analyst at Stifel

Okay, great. Maybe, I know, you touched on a little bit this call, but I was wondering about the replacement business. Can you maybe provide a little bit more color on that? I know, I know the builder pipeline was moderating a little bit, if you could touch on that would be helpful. Thanks.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Yeah, I think we signaled it 12-18 months ago that, you know, the pipeline for the builder segment was gonna be a challenge in 2026 and 2027. We pivoted to increase our replacement business, which we have been doing and continue to do. It won't necessarily make up the shortfall from the development segment, but it definitely helps. It's a continued focus that we have on the replacement business.

Analyst at Stifel

Okay, great. Thanks. That was awesome. I'll leave it for the next queue.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Thanks, Jesse.

Operator

Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. Our next question comes from Nevan Yochim from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Nevan Yochim
Nevan Yochim
Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. I appreciate the color so far on the January trends. Hoping you can just give an update here on what you're seeing across product lines and region to start the quarter.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Yeah, it's a, it's a good question. You know, we continue to see strength out west. We're seeing a bounce back in B.C. and more softness in, you know, Eastern Ontario, in general, just a bit slower to start the quarter. You know, in general, I think January just has been colder, more snow, and I would characterize it as a bit tepid across the board. You know, it's our, it's our smallest month of the quarter, so we'll continue to see how the quarter progresses, and we're optimistic as we think about the back half of the year.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

We're optimistic, you know, in terms of, hopefully some of the macro headwinds ease and we're optimistic about some of our initiatives going forward in terms of, again, being positioned for value and continuing to outperform the market and gain chain, share across our categories.

Nevan Yochim
Nevan Yochim
Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay, great. Is it fair to say that the trends you saw in Q4 in terms of product lines, that those have continued into the year as well?

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Well, listen, as we think about Q1, I think there are a couple of things we need to flag, right? Last year, we would have highlighted to you that we had a shift in written-to-delivered from Q4 into Q1. That's primarily a furniture category dynamic, right? We're gonna see a bit more as we think about category performance in Q1, we're gonna see a bit more fresh pressure on the furniture category because of that shift. Otherwise, I would characterize, you know, the performance sort of across the categories as pretty consistent with our historical trend. We're still pretty bullish on our ability to drive share growth in furniture.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

We believe we're really well positioned in that category, but that, comparable year-over-year, especially in Q1, is gonna be hard to comp, especially as it relates to the furniture category. Then again, we're off to a slower start in January as we characterize. Slow, Q1 will be a tougher comp, and then we feel pretty good about our positioning for the balance of the year.

Nevan Yochim
Nevan Yochim
Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Great. Thanks, Victor. Just on the commercial appliances, I know some details so far. Just hoping you could expand a little bit. You know, is there a certain quarter in 2026 where you begin to lap these tougher comps, and can you frame the headwind on same-store sales growth?

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Yeah. I think, you know, with respect to commercial, like, look, it, it is moderating. It's gonna be tough to comp. That category, that channel, we've seen tremendous growth over the last, you know, since, frankly, since 2019. You know, that category has grown at a CAGR of, you know, 6%+, just to kind of put it out there. We're expecting a bit of a moderation, but we've gained a lot of share in that category. Our goal is to obviously mitigate that through the replacement business, mitigate that through geographical expansion, as Mike highlighted in his comments. But nonetheless, you know, it's probably gonna moderate this year. Our objective is to mitigate that as much as possible.

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

We still feel like we're outside of, you know, Q1. We think we're gonna drive good growth across our retail business. We plan to open a few, like we said, we're gonna grow our network. We have a couple of, you know, corporate stores planned to open this year in the back half of the year. We've got up to, you know, five franchisee locations that we're gonna open, so all of that is gonna help with top-line growth.

Nevan Yochim
Nevan Yochim
Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay, thank you. Maybe just one more from me. Can you talk to renovating the stores? Are you able to provide a bit more detail on the cost per store, maybe the payback period, and how you're thinking about returns on those investments?

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

Yeah, no, for sure. I mean, when we think about our renovations, we look at it as major, minor, and sort of refreshes, and we've obviously got a couple of new stores, like we said. It all has to fit within our return framework. We have pretty high hurdle rates, well above our, you know, cost of capital. You know, these are pretty high returning projects. We're basing it on some of the comps that we've seen in our network, some of the recent renovations that we've seen, where we've seen really good results, and we're quite pleased. We're very selective. As Mike said in his comments, we're pretty capital light in our approach. The major renovations obviously cost more than the minor renovations and the refreshes, but—

Victor Diab
CFO at LFL Group

You know, I'm gonna add in there category-level refreshes. In some cases, we'll go into a store and refresh the furniture category or the mattress category and not do an entire refresh. It really depends on the store itself, the market, what we're seeing as an opportunity, and it needs to fit within our return framework, and again, our hurdle rates are pretty high. I'll leave it at that.

Mike Walsh
President and CEO at LFL Group

Yeah. I think the only thing I would add is that, you know, retailers have to consistently look at their stores, the refresh, concept renewal, payback. I think one of the things coming out of the pandemic, we had two or three years where you weren't touching stores, it's really difficult to try and catch that up in one year. Over time, we want to be able to continue to refresh our stores and look at, you know, a go forward and a go back strategy, what's working, in any new developments or any concept renewal, and take that back to the broader groupings of stores. You know, it's just something retailers have to consistently look at and do.

Nevan Yochim
Nevan Yochim
Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Great. Appreciate that. Thanks, guys.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

Analysts
    • Ahmed Abdullah
      Equity Research Analyst at National Bank of Canada
    • Jonathan Ross
      Principal at LodeRock Advisors
    • Mike Walsh
      President and CEO at LFL Group
    • Nevan Yochim
      Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
    • Ty Collin
      Director of Institutional Equity Research at CIBC
    • Victor Diab
      CFO at LFL Group
    • Analyst at Stifel
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