TSE:ONEX Onex Q1 2026 Earnings Report C$108.75 0.00 (0.00%) As of 05/15/2026 04:42 PM Eastern ProfileEarnings HistoryForecast Onex EPS ResultsActual EPSC$2.28Consensus EPS N/ABeat/MissN/AOne Year Ago EPSN/AOnex Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$259.99 millionExpected RevenueN/ABeat/MissN/AYoY Revenue GrowthN/AOnex Announcement DetailsQuarterQ1 2026Date5/15/2026TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateFriday, May 15, 2026Conference Call Time11:00AM ETConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress ReleaseEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Onex Q1 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrMay 15, 2026 ShareLink copied to clipboard.Key Takeaways Positive Sentiment: Convex was the standout driver of the quarter, with underwriting performance, profitability, and ROE improving year over year. On a last-twelve-month basis, Convex posted $827 million of adjusted net income, an 83% combined ratio, and a 24% ROE. Neutral Sentiment: Onex highlighted its strategic partnership with AIG, which bought a 9.9% stake and committed CAD 2 billion to Onex asset management strategies. Management said the commitment should be accretive to fee-related earnings and could open additional collaboration opportunities. Positive Sentiment: Private equity realizations are accelerating, including the $1.6 billion Onex Partners continuation fund, the expected $230 million proceeds from Emerald, and progress toward a 1.0 DPI for Onex Partners V. Management said these realizations should support the launch of Onex Partners VI later this year. Neutral Sentiment: The credit platform remained disciplined despite market volatility, with limited exposure to software/AI credits, aggressive PIK loans, and direct lending retail. Fee-related earnings from structured credit were $15 million in Q1, and the team raised or extended eight CLOs in the first four months of the year. Negative Sentiment: Asset management FRE remains modest and back-half weighted, with Q1 FRE at $5 million and overall FRE a $3 million loss. Management said fundraising and CLO activity should help later in 2026, but they cautioned that the path to a $35 million run-rate will not be linear. AI Generated. May Contain Errors.Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallOnex Q1 202600:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xTranscript SectionsPresentationParticipantsPresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:00Welcome to Onex First Quarter 2026 conference call and webcast. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with pre-qualified analysts. At that time, if you have a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Jill Homenik, Managing Director, Shareholder Relations and Communications at Onex. Please go ahead. Jill HomenikManaging Director of Shareholder Relations and Communications at Onex00:00:31Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We're broadcasting this call on our website. Hosting the call today are Bobby Le Blanc, Onex's Chief Executive Officer, and Meg McClellan, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us today for our Q&A session is Paul Brand, Chief Executive Officer of Convex. Earlier this morning, we issued our first quarter 2026 press release, MD&A, and consolidated financial statements, which are available on the shareholder section of our website and have also been filed on SEDAR. Our supplemental information package is also available on our website. As a reminder, all references to dollar amounts on this call are in U.S. unless otherwise stated. I must also point everyone to our webcast presentation for our usual disclaimer and cautionary factors relating to any forward-looking statements contained in today's presentation and remarks. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bobby. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:01:29Happy Friday, everyone. First, I'd like to welcome Meg, Onex's new CFO, and Paul Brand, the CEO of Convex, to their first Onex earnings call. Thank you both for being here today. Onex delivered a solid first quarter despite a challenging market backdrop. We remain focused on executing our strategy to drive long-term value creation and earnings growth. Our Convex private equity and credit platforms are performing well, and we are experiencing positive momentum across our investing and asset management activities. As I've indicated before, Convex will be the largest contributor to increasing shareholder value in the near term. In addition, the value of our strategic partnership with AIG should not be overlooked. As a reminder, AIG purchased 7.5 million shares of Onex for a 9.9% ownership stake and has committed to invest CAD 2 billion in our asset management strategies. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:02:41We expect AIG's capital commitment to be accretive to FRE and to shareholder value. We are actively working with AIG to determine how capital will be allocated across Onex's private equity and credit products, including Onex Partners VI and OSCO II. We also believe there could be additional opportunities that arise to collaborate with AIG as we continue to build our relationship. At yesterday's annual general meeting, we were pleased to welcome AIG's representative, Jay Cohen, to our Board of Directors. Jay has more than 30 years of experience across the insurance industry ecosystem, most recently leading the insurance equity research team as managing director at Bank of America. We look forward to working with Jay and to the expertise and contributions he will bring to our board discussions. Now let's turn to Convex's performance. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:03:48Convex delivered a strong quarter with underwriting performance, profitability, and return on equity all improving versus the prior year period. Gross premiums written increased 5% year-over-year. However, this headline growth rate understates the underlying performance because Q1 of 2025 was an elevated comparison period, which included unusually high reinstatement premiums that Convex received following the California wildfires. Excluding these one-time premiums, which are paid by clients to restore coverage for a subsequent event following a major loss, gross premiums written grew 8%. As we forecasted prior to our acquisition, insurance pricing has softened with year-to-date rates down 4%. The softness is concentrated in short-tail classes of risk, such as property. In contrast, there has been rate increases in areas affected by the Middle East conflict and in casualty classes. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:05:07Convex generated adjusted net income of $106 million in the quarter, which included a $50 million unrealized mark-to-market loss on Convex's fixed income portfolio amid rising interest rates due to broader macroeconomic volatility. Excluding this non-operational accounting loss, Convex generated adjusted net income of $156 million. First quarter earnings should also not be viewed as representative of a full year run rate, as historically, net income in the first quarter of the year is less than we see in other quarters. Convex currently recognizes unrealized changes in the value of its fixed income portfolio through earnings, but plans to transition to an available-for-sale classification during the second quarter. This revised treatment is in line with peers and will reduce income statement volatility in subsequent periods. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:06:13Convex delivered a combined ratio of 87% in the quarter, and underwriting earnings growth was largely driven by a significant reduction in the loss ratio as first quarter earnings last year were negatively impacted by incurred losses due to the California wildfires. The Middle East conflict has resulted in estimated net losses of $23 million in Q1, which is relatively small compared to our overall earnings. Convex management is actively monitoring the evolving situation and expects rate increases on new policies written in the region to provide some offset against incurred losses. On a last twelve-month basis, adjusted net income was $827 million, an increase from $401 million in the comparable prior year period and from $711 for the full year 2025. The last twelve-month combined ratio improved to 83% and ROE increased to 24%. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:07:24Convex's ROE has steadily increased since Onex's acquisition, reflecting both stronger earnings and a lower tangible book value denominator following the repurchase of shares completed as part of the Convex transactions. It should be noted that Convex recorded modest major event losses over the last 12-month period, which has also helped improve Convex's overall loss ratio. The value of Onex's investment in Convex increased to $4 billion at the end of the quarter, representing an increase of 4% since the acquisition was closed earlier this year. This valuation is based upon a 2.0x price to tangible book value supported by Convex's high return on equity, earnings growth, and continued market share gains. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:08:21At this valuation, the implied price to earning multiples are 8.1x on a last twelve months adjusted net income basis and 10x on a full year 2025 actual net income basis. Looking ahead, we expect Convex's earnings to benefit from several structural levers, including continued market share gains, prudent growth in asset leverage, improvement in investment portfolio yields, and operating leverage as the business continues to scale. We are pleased with Convex's early results and continue to value our strong working partnership with Paul Brand and the entire Convex team. Now turning to asset management. Within private equity, our teams made significant progress returning capital to our limited partners last year. We returned more than CAD 8 billion, and this momentum has continued into 2026. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:09:23Onex Partners recently closed its $1.6 billion multi-asset continuation fund, raising capital from some of the world's leading institutional and sovereign investors, including several that are new to Onex. Just this past Monday, OP announced a full realization of Emerald with expecting net proceeds to Onex of $230 million. Importantly, these efforts will bring DPI for Onex Partners V to 1.0, making it a positive outlier on this metric relative to other funds of its vintage. Moreover, OP has good visibility into additional realizations and expects DPI to increase by the time Onex Partners VI has its first close, which is expected later this year. The OP Opportunities Fund has now invested about 70% of its $1 billion in commitments with one investment in each of the four verticals and has attracted an additional $1 billion in co-investment. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:10:27The fund has performed very well to date, particularly on the strength of its first 2 investments that we've held for over 12 months, Fischbach and Farsound. Our credit platform continues to distinguish itself as a market leader and a relative safe haven amidst considerable industry noise. Across the platform, we have been underweight software and AI exposed credits, avoided exposure to aggressive PIK loans that have come to market in the past 2 years, and importantly, have almost no direct lending retail exposure, which has gotten a lot of attention of late. While the market for new CLO issuances in Q1 was more subdued given recent market volatility, the credit team has been actively resetting existing CLOs and opportunistically placing new offerings. Over the first 4 months of the year, the team raised or extended 8 CLOs, including 3 new issuances. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:11:31Notably, the team recently priced their 50th U.S. CLO. It was just a little bit over 3 years ago that they issued their 25th U.S. CLO, proof of the team's ability to steadily scale the platform while maintaining their commitment to investment discipline and performance. They've done so with far greater balance sheet efficiency, with Onex's 35% share of CLO equity today being half of what it was 3 years ago. Structured credit, which includes CLOs, OSCO and ONCAP, delivered $15 million in fee related earnings in Q1 and remains positively positioned to grow earnings for the remainder of the year. As I mentioned, with direct lending being a source of concern in the market, it is worth noting that direct lending represents only 1% of Onex's credit AUM. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:12:33Our offerings are focused on liquid, structured and multi-asset credit strategies which benefit from a sophisticated institutional client base and a proven track record of performance across economic cycles. We continue to benefit from the quality and strength of our credit platform, which is showing up in the form of both new and repeat investors. Let me turn to our liquidity and capital allocation priorities. As I outlined in our last call, we intend to reorient realized proceeds from our legacy investments into 1 or 2 direct balance sheet investments that ideally have a good strategic fit with Convex and or our asset management business. These investments will use lower leverage and have attractive risk-adjusted return profiles to drive earnings growth and enterprise value for Onex shareholders. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:13:32Of course, as we get closer to fully paying down the NAV loan, share buybacks will once again be considered as part of our future capital allocation decisions. I am confident that the combination of earnings growth from Convex, future realizations from our PE portfolio and the reorientation of that capital, and the growing profitability of our asset management business will drive substantial long-term value creation. I'll now turn the call over to Meg. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:14:05Thank you, Bobby, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my prepared remarks, I'd like to thank my predecessor, Chris Govan, for his help during my transition to this role. I am grateful for his support and partnership. I'm thrilled to join Onex at such a pivotal time in the company's evolution. Convex is now a meaningful driver of shareholder value. Our private equity team continues to compound shareholder capital and generate realizations, and our credit platform continues to scale while maintaining discipline in challenging markets. I'll focus my remarks today on how these themes show up in our first quarter financials. First, I would like to provide an update on our investing capital. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:14:45Investing capital, which includes Convex and other balance sheet activity at Onex, ended the quarter at $9.4 billion, which equates to $122.45 per share or about CAD 170. The 2% decline in the quarter relative to the 2025 year-end was primarily driven by the dilutive impact of issuing shares to AIG in connection with the Convex acquisition. Excluding this, investing capital per share would have increased 1% during the quarter and 8% over the last 12 months. We believe this dilutive impact will be more than offset by the incremental FRE and shareholder value generated through the $2 billion of AIG commitments in our asset management products. We will also manage a portion of Convex investment portfolio, supporting long-term FRE growth. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:15:44Convex accounts for 42% of Onex investing capital and, as Bobby emphasized, was a key driver of our results. The fair value of our investment in Convex was $4 billion at the end of the quarter, or $51.87 per share, equal to CAD 72.18 per share. This value has increased by 4% since our acquisition and is based on a 2x tangible book value multiple. We believe this multiple is well supported by the factors Bobby mentioned, especially Convex's strong ROE and levers it can utilize to grow earnings. These levers are outlined in our supplemental information package. Our valuation is anchored on price to tangible book value. This avoids overweighting any single period of earnings, which can be affected by timing and severity of loss events. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:16:42Instead, it reflects accumulated growth in tangible book value and equity value creation over time. This is consistent with how Onex Partners historically valued Convex. We also reviewed Convex relative positioning versus property and casualty peers. We believe Convex return on equity and key financial performance metrics support a modest premium to peer tangible book value multiples. Additionally, we referenced the valuation against Convex earnings. The valuation equates to 8.1 times last twelve months adjusted net income and 10 times 2025 net income, which are well below Convex peer average. Finally, we compared our Convex valuation to input from an independent third-party valuation source, which provided additional support on the reasonableness of our estimate and our approach. Moving on to investments in treasury. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:17:40This section consists of the non-Convex remainder of our investment holdings and activity, including our private equity and credit investing capital, cash and near cash and debt. Investments in treasury ended the quarter with $5.4 billion of investing capital or $70.58 per share equal to CAD 98.22 per share. Private equity generated an 8% return on Onex investing capital over the last 12 months and a 1% return in the quarter. Importantly, the private equity team continues to deliver strong realizations with $317 million of proceeds to Onex from the multi-asset continuation vehicle Bobby mentioned. Approximately half of that was received in the quarter, and the balance is expected in Q1, 2027. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:18:35Subsequent to quarter end, we announced the sale of Emerald and expect to receive $230 million of proceeds to Onex in the second half of 2026. Credit generated a 2.1% return on Onex investing capital over the last 12 months. Declined 3% in the quarter, primarily due to mark-to-market non-realized losses in structured credit, particularly CLO equity. I would like to reinforce here Bobby's point that our direct lending exposure is minimal, with Onex investing capital in this strategy only $16 million at quarter end, representing well under 1% of our total investing capital. Turning now to our asset management business. The asset management story this quarter is straightforward. The longer-term fee base continues to grow, particularly for credit, while reported FRE continues to reflect private equity fees, step downs, and market volatility. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:19:36Fee-generating AUM was $42.8 billion at quarter end. Credit fee generating AUM was $30.2 billion, up 1% from the end of last year. This was driven by net new CLO fee-generating AUM raised despite credit market headwinds. Private equity fee-generating AUM was $12.6 billion, down 10% due to Onex Partners V's realization of Convex. Excluding the impact of the Convex realization, private equity fee-generating AUM would have increased 3%, driven largely by the Onex Partners multi-asset continuation fund. Run rate management fees for asset management were $210 million. FRE for our asset management business was $5 million in the quarter, and overall FRE was a loss of $3 million. The path to higher fee-related earnings will not be linear. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:20:33Several revenue drivers, including an active fundraising pipeline, are expected to have a greater impact in the second half of this year. Due to this, FRE will be backloaded and annualizing Q1 is not representative. Onex continues to prioritize building a more durable recurring management fee base, maintaining expense discipline, and improving the earnings profile of our asset management business over time to generate value for our shareholders. Finally, on liquidity, we ended the quarter with $398 million of cash and near cash. We drew $700 million on the NAV loan to support the Convex acquisition. In April, we repaid $200 million, reducing that balance to $500 million. Following this repayment, we retained strong liquidity with approximately $200 million of cash and near cash and $600 million available to be drawn on our revolving credit facility. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:21:29Continued private equity realizations, including the sale of Emerald, will support further repayment, reduce interest expense, and provide additional capital allocation flexibility. We also have significant flexibility with our private equity investing capital, which totaled $4.6 billion at quarter end. We only have $255 million of unfunded commitments to funds still in their active commitment period. Overall, we're comfortable that our liquidity position provides ample capacity to fund our capital commitment needs. In closing, Q1 was a positive quarter that reflects our strategy to reorient our balance sheet. Convex is now reported separately, reflecting its significance as a core investment for Onex shareholders. Investing in Treasury continues to show the value and flexibility for the rest of our balance sheet. Asset management should deliver growing run rate management fees as our investment teams execute against their fundraising targets. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:22:34Our liquidity position remains solid and flexible. I'm excited to be part of team Onex, and I'm committed to providing clear, disciplined financial communication as we execute Onex priorities and create value for our shareholders. Thank you, and I look forward to spending time with each of you in the future. We will now open the line for questions. Operator00:23:00Certainly. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Fletcher from CIBC. Your question please. Scott FletcherAnalyst at CIBC00:23:13Hi, good morning, everyone. wanted to ask a couple questions on Convex, maybe for Paul in particular. just first, I wanna just looking at the current accident year loss ratio, it did tick up quarter-over-quarter and year-on-year. Sounds like the Middle East conflict might have had some element at play there. I wonder if you could just dig into that and how we should be thinking of that for the rest of the year. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:23:37Paul, go ahead. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:23:38Yeah, no, absolutely. You're quite right. As we sort of noted in the materials, there's about a $23 million add-on for the Iran war. That just moved the, you know, ex major event loss ratio up a little bit. Scott FletcherAnalyst at CIBC00:24:02Okay, thanks. Sounds like there's not much else to call out there. On the net premiums retention, that number sort of came down again, quarter-over-quarter, year-on-year, drove net premiums into sort of a, I think it was 9% down year-on-year. Just wondering what you're seeing in the market that's sort of shifting the posture on premium retention and how we again, we should think about the approach there for the rest of 2026. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:24:34I mean, Convex buys a reasonable amount of reinsurance as we buy that sort of through the market. As we see prices soften, we might expect to see sort of reinsurance purchasing going up a little bit. We also have whole account credit share, which was slightly underplaced in Q1 of 2025. That would be, you know, affecting that comparative state. Scott FletcherAnalyst at CIBC00:25:10Okay. Thanks for that. I'll just finish on one more on the expense side. It looks like I'm just trying to get a sense of what the commission costs or the policy acquisition costs should look like. I think, you know, there's been the numbers have moved around. It's not a huge data set. Just wondering, you know, 25% in the quarter or 24.7%. Is that, you know, a good number to look at going forward? I'll pass the line after that. Thanks. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:25:39Yeah. No, we'll come back down much closer to the, what you're seeing in the LTM, sort of 22-ish would be my prediction on that. Just some noise in Q1 in terms of how different parts of the places sort of the outwards premium and the inwards premium are driving that effect. Operator00:26:06Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Graham Ryding from TD Securities. Your question, please. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:26:15Hi, good morning. Paul, maybe I'll stick with you. Welcome to the call. Just maybe the outlook for gross written premium in 2026, just given your focus on specialty and, you know, there is some pricing pressure in the markets overall, maybe your outlook on what your expectations are for the year. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:26:40No, absolutely. As we think about rates, we're down about 4% year-on-year. We still believe that that leaves actually some reasonable margin in the business, particularly as we can alter the portfolio around between the lines of business that are showing, you know, against the lines of business that are showing greatest rate cuts and towards the lines of business that are showing, you know, the best sort of rating environments. As I sort of think about, you know, an outlook for the year, as we mentioned, I think the 5% is a bit understated because of the reinstatement premiums that we received in Q1 2025. Normalizing to that, you know, we're about 8%. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:27:32I, you know, I would expect us to get maybe a bit higher than that as we get towards the end of the year and more of the insurance versus reinsurance business, it starts to balance in with reinsurance having a very big Q1, and growing and predicted to grow at a slightly lower rate than we're seeing the insurance business in 2026. Yeah, still, you know, a few quarters to go before we'll be able to prove that. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:28:04Okay. Understood. The business delivered a 20% ROE last year. I think slightly higher than that on an LTM basis. Like, do you feel like this is a business that should be able to sustain that 20% plus ROE? Is that a reasonable target? Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:28:20Yeah. I mean, I think you kind of have to see what happens to losses. You have to see what's obviously going to go on in the investment environment in an uncertain world. Yeah, I still, as I said, I still think there's plenty of margin in the business. Absolutely, you know, we hope to post another, you know, decent ROE in the entirety of 2026. I mean, I think as Bobby's comments mentioned, yeah, if you just look at the LTM and just sort of getting up to 24, that is slightly flattered by having probably slightly fewer major events during that particular period in Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 than we might expect in a normal period. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:29:15The underlying sort of drivers in the business are looking good. As I said, you know, we're seeing good gross premium growth. Our expenses are pretty much in line. I don't have to get too optimistic to hope to see something like those types of ROEs that you're mentioning. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:29:38It's important to remember, like, where Convex is positioned in its evolution. If we can pretty much double the size of the current Convex business without adding much to our expense line. There'll be inflation and other things, but nothing meaningful. We have a chassis that could grow a lot without incremental cost. Second, our asset leverage is well below industry norms, so we'll be able to grow into that, and that incremental float over time will create more investment income. You know, as we've talked about, we'll and it won't be a lot, right? We'll manage some of our investment portfolio at Convex in alternative assets, which should give a bit of a pickup in yield then. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:30:21Importantly, just given the reaction to Convex over the last year in the marketplace, you know, we're continuing to gain share, given the customer service and data analytics that we're providing to our clients. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:30:39Okay. Helpful. Megan, maybe I could jump to you just on the asset management FRE. You said you put a $35 million target for the end of 2026, maybe I should interpret that as sort of a you know, a run rate in Q1 2027. Previously, you know, you guys have talked about hitting a $17 million run rate by Q2 of this year. Does that still hold? Then just bigger picture, what are the key pieces here to sort of get FRE moving into that positive territory that you're targeting? Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:31:18It's a very similar story, and thanks for the question. As to what Chris talked about in the fourth quarter earnings call. We do expect to hit the year-end run rate. Again, it's back half loaded. We've got a lot of fundraising coming. You'll hear us talk about OP VI quite a bit. That is a very big component of hitting that run rate. That along with some credit products and some additional CLO issuance. You're going to have a bumpy path getting there. Certainly Q1 with the credit markets was somewhat bumpy. Not gonna be a linear path. It's a little too early to confirm run rate for the full 2026 year. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:32:01Okay. On the PE side, you know, expenses seem to continue to sort of be elevated relative to management fees. Are you looking at the expense and the efficiency side, or is this more about fundraising and driving the top line higher? Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:32:21No, it's definitely the latter. As we continue to sell assets out of OP Five, which of course generates DPI, which is very important to our LPs, the revenue goes away on those assets when you sell them. The expense line ought to be right-sized, if you will. That team's done a very good job of right-sizing its expense structure relative to our fundraising expectations. When we begin to have closes at OP VI, that'll rectify itself. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:32:52Okay. Understood. Then, sir, I missed that part. Where are you with the fundraising, and what's the expected or what's the initial feedback and uptake then for OP VI? Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:33:03We said we expect to have our first close later this year. Momentum seems good. The DPI stat that we've delivered for OP V shouldn't be overlooked. We're at a 1.0 pro forma for an Emerald. We think we'll be higher than that when we get to our first close. The smaller the gap you have between realized MOIC versus unrealized MOIC is the more confident LPs are in your ability to deliver the results that you promised. The vintage we're put up against for that 1.0 MOIC, we're probably top decile relative to similar vintages, that's only gonna get better given what we have in the pipeline. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:33:50That should give us pretty good momentum, coming into the first close on an absolute and relative basis. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:33:57Okay. Understood. That's it for me. Thank you. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:34:01Thank you. Operator00:34:02Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Belsher from RBC Capital Markets. Your question please. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:34:11Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Maybe sticking with the asset management business. I saw the net IRR disclosure was dropped. Maybe give us a rationale why and an update on net IRR performance on the flagship PE funds would be great. Thanks. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:34:29Yep. Yeah. We've had 2 instances where the press has gone in and used that stat that doesn't have the benefit or similarity to the way the rest of the industry calculates net IRR. We have incremental disclosure, you'll be able to see, you know, where we sit relative to carry and give you good comfort that the accrued carry is good. People were scraping data off that, off that exhibit and just implying quartiles and other things that simply weren't accurate given the way we communicate with our LPs. It's actually putting the OP team at a bit of an unfair competitive disadvantage. We decided to begin disclose in a different way. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:35:14We're not, you know, we are, you'll be able to get to the same place of what you're looking for, which is most likely are we going to collect that the carry that we've accrued? You'll see in the disclosure we feel very good about that. We didn't want to stop these articles from coming out without the proper explanation that we normally give to LPs. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:35:33Okay. Got it. Thanks, Bobby. Maybe Megan, welcome to the call. Just wanted to ask around how we should think about when the buyback could resume. I think you had mentioned you want to pay down the NAV loan, so what should we be expecting on that front? Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:35:48Yeah, I'll take that one. Thanks. I'm trying to actually make sure that Meg and I and the rest of the team do what we've promised to do. You know, we promised to get that NAV loan paid down as quickly as possible. I think we're doing quite a good job. If you pro forma for Emerald, you know, you'll know, we'll have a bunch more of it paid down. I'm already getting very close to the point where I said it in my remarks. Happily at these prices, the share buybacks are gonna become part of the capital allocation decision again. That's obviously coupled with how to reorient the rest of the balance sheet. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:36:21We're getting much closer, much quicker about having that back in the conversation than I would've guessed even three months ago. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:36:30Okay, got it. Thanks for that. Maybe last one just on Convex. Paul, thanks for joining the call as well. Like the GWP has been decelerating from a growth perspective since 2022. I recognize those are hard markets, and we're kind of running at, call it, high single digits now, it sounds like from your commentary. Maybe what comfort can you give investors that, you know, in a decelerating market where your growing premiums looks like well above industry, that you're maintaining your discipline on the underwriting and pricing side to generate that growth? Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:37:07Yeah, no, sure. I think this is an entirely fair question. Yeah, I mean, I probably spent more of my life in soft markets than hard markets. We've absolutely have focused on a really strong analytical backbone that gives us good insight as to where both gross margin is in the business and also margin that we see after purchasing outwards reinsurance. Yeah. As I said, we're seeing a 4% rate reduction so far this year. Yeah. As you think about how rates went up in the period of time from really from Convex getting going in 2019 all the way through to sort of midway through 2025, you know, that's not a particularly rapid decline. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:38:08Against the backdrop of that, as I said, we also buy reinsurance. The sort of improvement in terms that we're seeing there is in lots of ways mitigating and offsetting the marginal reductions in prices that we're that we're seeing on the ins business. We don't, I mean, I'm pleased that we're able to grow to, you know, high single-digit rate even in this, you know, slightly more competitive marketplace. I think that's a signal to the work that Convex has done on its relationships with its brokers and its clients since it's come to existence. No underwriter in Convex, though, has a top line goal or target. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:39:05You know, unless if you don't see margin in the business, then it's absolutely fine to step backwards from it. You know, and as you said, you know, we were growing at faster rates in the, you know, super hard phases of the marketplace. That's partly driven by, you know, market share and our ability to open new lines of business up. I'm not surprised to see us more normalizing in the market that we're seeing today. There's Yeah, but I still sense there's, you know, sort of plenty of room for Convex to grow. We will always, you know, put margin and bottom line ahead of DOP. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:39:52That's just been, you know, a mantra that I've had, you know, pretty much all the way through my career. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:39:59Great. Very helpful. Thanks for the call, Paul. Thanks for taking my questions. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:40:04Thank you. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:40:04My pleasure. Operator00:40:05This does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Bobby Le Blanc for any further remarks. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:40:14Thanks everyone for being here with us today. Thanks Paul and Megan for joining your first earnings call. Great to have you both here. I hope everybody has a great weekend. Again, if you have any questions at all, feel free to call Jill, Zev, or Megan or I, and we'll try to get back to you quickly. Have a great weekend. Bye-bye. Operator00:40:33Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.Read moreParticipantsExecutivesBobby Le BlancCEOJill HomenikManaging Director of Shareholder Relations and CommunicationsMegan McClellanCFOAnalystsGeoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital MarketsGraham RydingAnalyst at TD SecuritiesPaul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at ConvexScott FletcherAnalyst at CIBCPowered by Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release Onex Earnings HeadlinesOnex Corp (ONEXF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong ROE and Strategic Partnerships Amid ...May 16 at 1:25 AM | finance.yahoo.comOnex profit falls to $129-million in first quarterMay 15 at 10:23 AM | theglobeandmail.comYour book attachedVeteran trader Bill Poulos is giving away his 'Simple Options Trading For Beginners' book - normally $29.97 - at no charge. Inside, he reveals the one options technique that took him 11 years to find, why more strategies often lead to more losses, and the 10-minute nightly routine that replaced his 8-hour trading days.May 18 at 1:00 AM | Profits Run (Ad)Onex 1Q Distributable Earnings Surge as Covex Segment Swings to ProfitMay 15 at 10:23 AM | marketwatch.comOnex Seeks $1 Billion to Hang Onto OneDigital Stake For LongerMay 13, 2026 | bloomberg.comOnex seeks US$1 billion to hang onto OneDigital stake for longerMay 12, 2026 | financialpost.comFSee More Onex Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Onex? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Onex and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About OnexOnex (TSE:ONEX) is a private equity investor and asset management firm. The company operates in two main segments: investing, which includes private equity, private credit, and direct investments; and asset and wealth management, which manages pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and family offices. Investing revenue primarily comes from net gains on corporate investments and CLOs (collateralized loan investments). Asset and wealth management revenue comes primarily from management and performance fees. 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PresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:00Welcome to Onex First Quarter 2026 conference call and webcast. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with pre-qualified analysts. At that time, if you have a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Jill Homenik, Managing Director, Shareholder Relations and Communications at Onex. Please go ahead. Jill HomenikManaging Director of Shareholder Relations and Communications at Onex00:00:31Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We're broadcasting this call on our website. Hosting the call today are Bobby Le Blanc, Onex's Chief Executive Officer, and Meg McClellan, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us today for our Q&A session is Paul Brand, Chief Executive Officer of Convex. Earlier this morning, we issued our first quarter 2026 press release, MD&A, and consolidated financial statements, which are available on the shareholder section of our website and have also been filed on SEDAR. Our supplemental information package is also available on our website. As a reminder, all references to dollar amounts on this call are in U.S. unless otherwise stated. I must also point everyone to our webcast presentation for our usual disclaimer and cautionary factors relating to any forward-looking statements contained in today's presentation and remarks. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bobby. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:01:29Happy Friday, everyone. First, I'd like to welcome Meg, Onex's new CFO, and Paul Brand, the CEO of Convex, to their first Onex earnings call. Thank you both for being here today. Onex delivered a solid first quarter despite a challenging market backdrop. We remain focused on executing our strategy to drive long-term value creation and earnings growth. Our Convex private equity and credit platforms are performing well, and we are experiencing positive momentum across our investing and asset management activities. As I've indicated before, Convex will be the largest contributor to increasing shareholder value in the near term. In addition, the value of our strategic partnership with AIG should not be overlooked. As a reminder, AIG purchased 7.5 million shares of Onex for a 9.9% ownership stake and has committed to invest CAD 2 billion in our asset management strategies. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:02:41We expect AIG's capital commitment to be accretive to FRE and to shareholder value. We are actively working with AIG to determine how capital will be allocated across Onex's private equity and credit products, including Onex Partners VI and OSCO II. We also believe there could be additional opportunities that arise to collaborate with AIG as we continue to build our relationship. At yesterday's annual general meeting, we were pleased to welcome AIG's representative, Jay Cohen, to our Board of Directors. Jay has more than 30 years of experience across the insurance industry ecosystem, most recently leading the insurance equity research team as managing director at Bank of America. We look forward to working with Jay and to the expertise and contributions he will bring to our board discussions. Now let's turn to Convex's performance. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:03:48Convex delivered a strong quarter with underwriting performance, profitability, and return on equity all improving versus the prior year period. Gross premiums written increased 5% year-over-year. However, this headline growth rate understates the underlying performance because Q1 of 2025 was an elevated comparison period, which included unusually high reinstatement premiums that Convex received following the California wildfires. Excluding these one-time premiums, which are paid by clients to restore coverage for a subsequent event following a major loss, gross premiums written grew 8%. As we forecasted prior to our acquisition, insurance pricing has softened with year-to-date rates down 4%. The softness is concentrated in short-tail classes of risk, such as property. In contrast, there has been rate increases in areas affected by the Middle East conflict and in casualty classes. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:05:07Convex generated adjusted net income of $106 million in the quarter, which included a $50 million unrealized mark-to-market loss on Convex's fixed income portfolio amid rising interest rates due to broader macroeconomic volatility. Excluding this non-operational accounting loss, Convex generated adjusted net income of $156 million. First quarter earnings should also not be viewed as representative of a full year run rate, as historically, net income in the first quarter of the year is less than we see in other quarters. Convex currently recognizes unrealized changes in the value of its fixed income portfolio through earnings, but plans to transition to an available-for-sale classification during the second quarter. This revised treatment is in line with peers and will reduce income statement volatility in subsequent periods. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:06:13Convex delivered a combined ratio of 87% in the quarter, and underwriting earnings growth was largely driven by a significant reduction in the loss ratio as first quarter earnings last year were negatively impacted by incurred losses due to the California wildfires. The Middle East conflict has resulted in estimated net losses of $23 million in Q1, which is relatively small compared to our overall earnings. Convex management is actively monitoring the evolving situation and expects rate increases on new policies written in the region to provide some offset against incurred losses. On a last twelve-month basis, adjusted net income was $827 million, an increase from $401 million in the comparable prior year period and from $711 for the full year 2025. The last twelve-month combined ratio improved to 83% and ROE increased to 24%. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:07:24Convex's ROE has steadily increased since Onex's acquisition, reflecting both stronger earnings and a lower tangible book value denominator following the repurchase of shares completed as part of the Convex transactions. It should be noted that Convex recorded modest major event losses over the last 12-month period, which has also helped improve Convex's overall loss ratio. The value of Onex's investment in Convex increased to $4 billion at the end of the quarter, representing an increase of 4% since the acquisition was closed earlier this year. This valuation is based upon a 2.0x price to tangible book value supported by Convex's high return on equity, earnings growth, and continued market share gains. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:08:21At this valuation, the implied price to earning multiples are 8.1x on a last twelve months adjusted net income basis and 10x on a full year 2025 actual net income basis. Looking ahead, we expect Convex's earnings to benefit from several structural levers, including continued market share gains, prudent growth in asset leverage, improvement in investment portfolio yields, and operating leverage as the business continues to scale. We are pleased with Convex's early results and continue to value our strong working partnership with Paul Brand and the entire Convex team. Now turning to asset management. Within private equity, our teams made significant progress returning capital to our limited partners last year. We returned more than CAD 8 billion, and this momentum has continued into 2026. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:09:23Onex Partners recently closed its $1.6 billion multi-asset continuation fund, raising capital from some of the world's leading institutional and sovereign investors, including several that are new to Onex. Just this past Monday, OP announced a full realization of Emerald with expecting net proceeds to Onex of $230 million. Importantly, these efforts will bring DPI for Onex Partners V to 1.0, making it a positive outlier on this metric relative to other funds of its vintage. Moreover, OP has good visibility into additional realizations and expects DPI to increase by the time Onex Partners VI has its first close, which is expected later this year. The OP Opportunities Fund has now invested about 70% of its $1 billion in commitments with one investment in each of the four verticals and has attracted an additional $1 billion in co-investment. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:10:27The fund has performed very well to date, particularly on the strength of its first 2 investments that we've held for over 12 months, Fischbach and Farsound. Our credit platform continues to distinguish itself as a market leader and a relative safe haven amidst considerable industry noise. Across the platform, we have been underweight software and AI exposed credits, avoided exposure to aggressive PIK loans that have come to market in the past 2 years, and importantly, have almost no direct lending retail exposure, which has gotten a lot of attention of late. While the market for new CLO issuances in Q1 was more subdued given recent market volatility, the credit team has been actively resetting existing CLOs and opportunistically placing new offerings. Over the first 4 months of the year, the team raised or extended 8 CLOs, including 3 new issuances. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:11:31Notably, the team recently priced their 50th U.S. CLO. It was just a little bit over 3 years ago that they issued their 25th U.S. CLO, proof of the team's ability to steadily scale the platform while maintaining their commitment to investment discipline and performance. They've done so with far greater balance sheet efficiency, with Onex's 35% share of CLO equity today being half of what it was 3 years ago. Structured credit, which includes CLOs, OSCO and ONCAP, delivered $15 million in fee related earnings in Q1 and remains positively positioned to grow earnings for the remainder of the year. As I mentioned, with direct lending being a source of concern in the market, it is worth noting that direct lending represents only 1% of Onex's credit AUM. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:12:33Our offerings are focused on liquid, structured and multi-asset credit strategies which benefit from a sophisticated institutional client base and a proven track record of performance across economic cycles. We continue to benefit from the quality and strength of our credit platform, which is showing up in the form of both new and repeat investors. Let me turn to our liquidity and capital allocation priorities. As I outlined in our last call, we intend to reorient realized proceeds from our legacy investments into 1 or 2 direct balance sheet investments that ideally have a good strategic fit with Convex and or our asset management business. These investments will use lower leverage and have attractive risk-adjusted return profiles to drive earnings growth and enterprise value for Onex shareholders. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:13:32Of course, as we get closer to fully paying down the NAV loan, share buybacks will once again be considered as part of our future capital allocation decisions. I am confident that the combination of earnings growth from Convex, future realizations from our PE portfolio and the reorientation of that capital, and the growing profitability of our asset management business will drive substantial long-term value creation. I'll now turn the call over to Meg. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:14:05Thank you, Bobby, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my prepared remarks, I'd like to thank my predecessor, Chris Govan, for his help during my transition to this role. I am grateful for his support and partnership. I'm thrilled to join Onex at such a pivotal time in the company's evolution. Convex is now a meaningful driver of shareholder value. Our private equity team continues to compound shareholder capital and generate realizations, and our credit platform continues to scale while maintaining discipline in challenging markets. I'll focus my remarks today on how these themes show up in our first quarter financials. First, I would like to provide an update on our investing capital. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:14:45Investing capital, which includes Convex and other balance sheet activity at Onex, ended the quarter at $9.4 billion, which equates to $122.45 per share or about CAD 170. The 2% decline in the quarter relative to the 2025 year-end was primarily driven by the dilutive impact of issuing shares to AIG in connection with the Convex acquisition. Excluding this, investing capital per share would have increased 1% during the quarter and 8% over the last 12 months. We believe this dilutive impact will be more than offset by the incremental FRE and shareholder value generated through the $2 billion of AIG commitments in our asset management products. We will also manage a portion of Convex investment portfolio, supporting long-term FRE growth. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:15:44Convex accounts for 42% of Onex investing capital and, as Bobby emphasized, was a key driver of our results. The fair value of our investment in Convex was $4 billion at the end of the quarter, or $51.87 per share, equal to CAD 72.18 per share. This value has increased by 4% since our acquisition and is based on a 2x tangible book value multiple. We believe this multiple is well supported by the factors Bobby mentioned, especially Convex's strong ROE and levers it can utilize to grow earnings. These levers are outlined in our supplemental information package. Our valuation is anchored on price to tangible book value. This avoids overweighting any single period of earnings, which can be affected by timing and severity of loss events. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:16:42Instead, it reflects accumulated growth in tangible book value and equity value creation over time. This is consistent with how Onex Partners historically valued Convex. We also reviewed Convex relative positioning versus property and casualty peers. We believe Convex return on equity and key financial performance metrics support a modest premium to peer tangible book value multiples. Additionally, we referenced the valuation against Convex earnings. The valuation equates to 8.1 times last twelve months adjusted net income and 10 times 2025 net income, which are well below Convex peer average. Finally, we compared our Convex valuation to input from an independent third-party valuation source, which provided additional support on the reasonableness of our estimate and our approach. Moving on to investments in treasury. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:17:40This section consists of the non-Convex remainder of our investment holdings and activity, including our private equity and credit investing capital, cash and near cash and debt. Investments in treasury ended the quarter with $5.4 billion of investing capital or $70.58 per share equal to CAD 98.22 per share. Private equity generated an 8% return on Onex investing capital over the last 12 months and a 1% return in the quarter. Importantly, the private equity team continues to deliver strong realizations with $317 million of proceeds to Onex from the multi-asset continuation vehicle Bobby mentioned. Approximately half of that was received in the quarter, and the balance is expected in Q1, 2027. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:18:35Subsequent to quarter end, we announced the sale of Emerald and expect to receive $230 million of proceeds to Onex in the second half of 2026. Credit generated a 2.1% return on Onex investing capital over the last 12 months. Declined 3% in the quarter, primarily due to mark-to-market non-realized losses in structured credit, particularly CLO equity. I would like to reinforce here Bobby's point that our direct lending exposure is minimal, with Onex investing capital in this strategy only $16 million at quarter end, representing well under 1% of our total investing capital. Turning now to our asset management business. The asset management story this quarter is straightforward. The longer-term fee base continues to grow, particularly for credit, while reported FRE continues to reflect private equity fees, step downs, and market volatility. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:19:36Fee-generating AUM was $42.8 billion at quarter end. Credit fee generating AUM was $30.2 billion, up 1% from the end of last year. This was driven by net new CLO fee-generating AUM raised despite credit market headwinds. Private equity fee-generating AUM was $12.6 billion, down 10% due to Onex Partners V's realization of Convex. Excluding the impact of the Convex realization, private equity fee-generating AUM would have increased 3%, driven largely by the Onex Partners multi-asset continuation fund. Run rate management fees for asset management were $210 million. FRE for our asset management business was $5 million in the quarter, and overall FRE was a loss of $3 million. The path to higher fee-related earnings will not be linear. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:20:33Several revenue drivers, including an active fundraising pipeline, are expected to have a greater impact in the second half of this year. Due to this, FRE will be backloaded and annualizing Q1 is not representative. Onex continues to prioritize building a more durable recurring management fee base, maintaining expense discipline, and improving the earnings profile of our asset management business over time to generate value for our shareholders. Finally, on liquidity, we ended the quarter with $398 million of cash and near cash. We drew $700 million on the NAV loan to support the Convex acquisition. In April, we repaid $200 million, reducing that balance to $500 million. Following this repayment, we retained strong liquidity with approximately $200 million of cash and near cash and $600 million available to be drawn on our revolving credit facility. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:21:29Continued private equity realizations, including the sale of Emerald, will support further repayment, reduce interest expense, and provide additional capital allocation flexibility. We also have significant flexibility with our private equity investing capital, which totaled $4.6 billion at quarter end. We only have $255 million of unfunded commitments to funds still in their active commitment period. Overall, we're comfortable that our liquidity position provides ample capacity to fund our capital commitment needs. In closing, Q1 was a positive quarter that reflects our strategy to reorient our balance sheet. Convex is now reported separately, reflecting its significance as a core investment for Onex shareholders. Investing in Treasury continues to show the value and flexibility for the rest of our balance sheet. Asset management should deliver growing run rate management fees as our investment teams execute against their fundraising targets. Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:22:34Our liquidity position remains solid and flexible. I'm excited to be part of team Onex, and I'm committed to providing clear, disciplined financial communication as we execute Onex priorities and create value for our shareholders. Thank you, and I look forward to spending time with each of you in the future. We will now open the line for questions. Operator00:23:00Certainly. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. Our first question comes from the line of Scott Fletcher from CIBC. Your question please. Scott FletcherAnalyst at CIBC00:23:13Hi, good morning, everyone. wanted to ask a couple questions on Convex, maybe for Paul in particular. just first, I wanna just looking at the current accident year loss ratio, it did tick up quarter-over-quarter and year-on-year. Sounds like the Middle East conflict might have had some element at play there. I wonder if you could just dig into that and how we should be thinking of that for the rest of the year. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:23:37Paul, go ahead. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:23:38Yeah, no, absolutely. You're quite right. As we sort of noted in the materials, there's about a $23 million add-on for the Iran war. That just moved the, you know, ex major event loss ratio up a little bit. Scott FletcherAnalyst at CIBC00:24:02Okay, thanks. Sounds like there's not much else to call out there. On the net premiums retention, that number sort of came down again, quarter-over-quarter, year-on-year, drove net premiums into sort of a, I think it was 9% down year-on-year. Just wondering what you're seeing in the market that's sort of shifting the posture on premium retention and how we again, we should think about the approach there for the rest of 2026. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:24:34I mean, Convex buys a reasonable amount of reinsurance as we buy that sort of through the market. As we see prices soften, we might expect to see sort of reinsurance purchasing going up a little bit. We also have whole account credit share, which was slightly underplaced in Q1 of 2025. That would be, you know, affecting that comparative state. Scott FletcherAnalyst at CIBC00:25:10Okay. Thanks for that. I'll just finish on one more on the expense side. It looks like I'm just trying to get a sense of what the commission costs or the policy acquisition costs should look like. I think, you know, there's been the numbers have moved around. It's not a huge data set. Just wondering, you know, 25% in the quarter or 24.7%. Is that, you know, a good number to look at going forward? I'll pass the line after that. Thanks. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:25:39Yeah. No, we'll come back down much closer to the, what you're seeing in the LTM, sort of 22-ish would be my prediction on that. Just some noise in Q1 in terms of how different parts of the places sort of the outwards premium and the inwards premium are driving that effect. Operator00:26:06Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Graham Ryding from TD Securities. Your question, please. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:26:15Hi, good morning. Paul, maybe I'll stick with you. Welcome to the call. Just maybe the outlook for gross written premium in 2026, just given your focus on specialty and, you know, there is some pricing pressure in the markets overall, maybe your outlook on what your expectations are for the year. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:26:40No, absolutely. As we think about rates, we're down about 4% year-on-year. We still believe that that leaves actually some reasonable margin in the business, particularly as we can alter the portfolio around between the lines of business that are showing, you know, against the lines of business that are showing greatest rate cuts and towards the lines of business that are showing, you know, the best sort of rating environments. As I sort of think about, you know, an outlook for the year, as we mentioned, I think the 5% is a bit understated because of the reinstatement premiums that we received in Q1 2025. Normalizing to that, you know, we're about 8%. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:27:32I, you know, I would expect us to get maybe a bit higher than that as we get towards the end of the year and more of the insurance versus reinsurance business, it starts to balance in with reinsurance having a very big Q1, and growing and predicted to grow at a slightly lower rate than we're seeing the insurance business in 2026. Yeah, still, you know, a few quarters to go before we'll be able to prove that. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:28:04Okay. Understood. The business delivered a 20% ROE last year. I think slightly higher than that on an LTM basis. Like, do you feel like this is a business that should be able to sustain that 20% plus ROE? Is that a reasonable target? Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:28:20Yeah. I mean, I think you kind of have to see what happens to losses. You have to see what's obviously going to go on in the investment environment in an uncertain world. Yeah, I still, as I said, I still think there's plenty of margin in the business. Absolutely, you know, we hope to post another, you know, decent ROE in the entirety of 2026. I mean, I think as Bobby's comments mentioned, yeah, if you just look at the LTM and just sort of getting up to 24, that is slightly flattered by having probably slightly fewer major events during that particular period in Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 than we might expect in a normal period. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:29:15The underlying sort of drivers in the business are looking good. As I said, you know, we're seeing good gross premium growth. Our expenses are pretty much in line. I don't have to get too optimistic to hope to see something like those types of ROEs that you're mentioning. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:29:38It's important to remember, like, where Convex is positioned in its evolution. If we can pretty much double the size of the current Convex business without adding much to our expense line. There'll be inflation and other things, but nothing meaningful. We have a chassis that could grow a lot without incremental cost. Second, our asset leverage is well below industry norms, so we'll be able to grow into that, and that incremental float over time will create more investment income. You know, as we've talked about, we'll and it won't be a lot, right? We'll manage some of our investment portfolio at Convex in alternative assets, which should give a bit of a pickup in yield then. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:30:21Importantly, just given the reaction to Convex over the last year in the marketplace, you know, we're continuing to gain share, given the customer service and data analytics that we're providing to our clients. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:30:39Okay. Helpful. Megan, maybe I could jump to you just on the asset management FRE. You said you put a $35 million target for the end of 2026, maybe I should interpret that as sort of a you know, a run rate in Q1 2027. Previously, you know, you guys have talked about hitting a $17 million run rate by Q2 of this year. Does that still hold? Then just bigger picture, what are the key pieces here to sort of get FRE moving into that positive territory that you're targeting? Megan McClellanCFO at Onex00:31:18It's a very similar story, and thanks for the question. As to what Chris talked about in the fourth quarter earnings call. We do expect to hit the year-end run rate. Again, it's back half loaded. We've got a lot of fundraising coming. You'll hear us talk about OP VI quite a bit. That is a very big component of hitting that run rate. That along with some credit products and some additional CLO issuance. You're going to have a bumpy path getting there. Certainly Q1 with the credit markets was somewhat bumpy. Not gonna be a linear path. It's a little too early to confirm run rate for the full 2026 year. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:32:01Okay. On the PE side, you know, expenses seem to continue to sort of be elevated relative to management fees. Are you looking at the expense and the efficiency side, or is this more about fundraising and driving the top line higher? Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:32:21No, it's definitely the latter. As we continue to sell assets out of OP Five, which of course generates DPI, which is very important to our LPs, the revenue goes away on those assets when you sell them. The expense line ought to be right-sized, if you will. That team's done a very good job of right-sizing its expense structure relative to our fundraising expectations. When we begin to have closes at OP VI, that'll rectify itself. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:32:52Okay. Understood. Then, sir, I missed that part. Where are you with the fundraising, and what's the expected or what's the initial feedback and uptake then for OP VI? Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:33:03We said we expect to have our first close later this year. Momentum seems good. The DPI stat that we've delivered for OP V shouldn't be overlooked. We're at a 1.0 pro forma for an Emerald. We think we'll be higher than that when we get to our first close. The smaller the gap you have between realized MOIC versus unrealized MOIC is the more confident LPs are in your ability to deliver the results that you promised. The vintage we're put up against for that 1.0 MOIC, we're probably top decile relative to similar vintages, that's only gonna get better given what we have in the pipeline. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:33:50That should give us pretty good momentum, coming into the first close on an absolute and relative basis. Graham RydingAnalyst at TD Securities00:33:57Okay. Understood. That's it for me. Thank you. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:34:01Thank you. Operator00:34:02Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Belsher from RBC Capital Markets. Your question please. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:34:11Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Maybe sticking with the asset management business. I saw the net IRR disclosure was dropped. Maybe give us a rationale why and an update on net IRR performance on the flagship PE funds would be great. Thanks. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:34:29Yep. Yeah. We've had 2 instances where the press has gone in and used that stat that doesn't have the benefit or similarity to the way the rest of the industry calculates net IRR. We have incremental disclosure, you'll be able to see, you know, where we sit relative to carry and give you good comfort that the accrued carry is good. People were scraping data off that, off that exhibit and just implying quartiles and other things that simply weren't accurate given the way we communicate with our LPs. It's actually putting the OP team at a bit of an unfair competitive disadvantage. We decided to begin disclose in a different way. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:35:14We're not, you know, we are, you'll be able to get to the same place of what you're looking for, which is most likely are we going to collect that the carry that we've accrued? You'll see in the disclosure we feel very good about that. We didn't want to stop these articles from coming out without the proper explanation that we normally give to LPs. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:35:33Okay. Got it. Thanks, Bobby. Maybe Megan, welcome to the call. Just wanted to ask around how we should think about when the buyback could resume. I think you had mentioned you want to pay down the NAV loan, so what should we be expecting on that front? Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:35:48Yeah, I'll take that one. Thanks. I'm trying to actually make sure that Meg and I and the rest of the team do what we've promised to do. You know, we promised to get that NAV loan paid down as quickly as possible. I think we're doing quite a good job. If you pro forma for Emerald, you know, you'll know, we'll have a bunch more of it paid down. I'm already getting very close to the point where I said it in my remarks. Happily at these prices, the share buybacks are gonna become part of the capital allocation decision again. That's obviously coupled with how to reorient the rest of the balance sheet. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:36:21We're getting much closer, much quicker about having that back in the conversation than I would've guessed even three months ago. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:36:30Okay, got it. Thanks for that. Maybe last one just on Convex. Paul, thanks for joining the call as well. Like the GWP has been decelerating from a growth perspective since 2022. I recognize those are hard markets, and we're kind of running at, call it, high single digits now, it sounds like from your commentary. Maybe what comfort can you give investors that, you know, in a decelerating market where your growing premiums looks like well above industry, that you're maintaining your discipline on the underwriting and pricing side to generate that growth? Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:37:07Yeah, no, sure. I think this is an entirely fair question. Yeah, I mean, I probably spent more of my life in soft markets than hard markets. We've absolutely have focused on a really strong analytical backbone that gives us good insight as to where both gross margin is in the business and also margin that we see after purchasing outwards reinsurance. Yeah. As I said, we're seeing a 4% rate reduction so far this year. Yeah. As you think about how rates went up in the period of time from really from Convex getting going in 2019 all the way through to sort of midway through 2025, you know, that's not a particularly rapid decline. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:38:08Against the backdrop of that, as I said, we also buy reinsurance. The sort of improvement in terms that we're seeing there is in lots of ways mitigating and offsetting the marginal reductions in prices that we're that we're seeing on the ins business. We don't, I mean, I'm pleased that we're able to grow to, you know, high single-digit rate even in this, you know, slightly more competitive marketplace. I think that's a signal to the work that Convex has done on its relationships with its brokers and its clients since it's come to existence. No underwriter in Convex, though, has a top line goal or target. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:39:05You know, unless if you don't see margin in the business, then it's absolutely fine to step backwards from it. You know, and as you said, you know, we were growing at faster rates in the, you know, super hard phases of the marketplace. That's partly driven by, you know, market share and our ability to open new lines of business up. I'm not surprised to see us more normalizing in the market that we're seeing today. There's Yeah, but I still sense there's, you know, sort of plenty of room for Convex to grow. We will always, you know, put margin and bottom line ahead of DOP. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:39:52That's just been, you know, a mantra that I've had, you know, pretty much all the way through my career. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:39:59Great. Very helpful. Thanks for the call, Paul. Thanks for taking my questions. Paul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at Convex00:40:04Thank you. Geoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital Markets00:40:04My pleasure. Operator00:40:05This does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Bobby Le Blanc for any further remarks. Bobby Le BlancCEO at Onex00:40:14Thanks everyone for being here with us today. Thanks Paul and Megan for joining your first earnings call. Great to have you both here. I hope everybody has a great weekend. Again, if you have any questions at all, feel free to call Jill, Zev, or Megan or I, and we'll try to get back to you quickly. Have a great weekend. Bye-bye. Operator00:40:33Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.Read moreParticipantsExecutivesBobby Le BlancCEOJill HomenikManaging Director of Shareholder Relations and CommunicationsMegan McClellanCFOAnalystsGeoffrey BelsherAnalyst at RBC Capital MarketsGraham RydingAnalyst at TD SecuritiesPaul BrandCo-Founder and CEO at ConvexScott FletcherAnalyst at CIBCPowered by