Crest Nicholson H1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Project Elevate is progressing on track, with management saying the business is being reshaped toward a mid-premium positioning through better product design, customer experience, and operational discipline.
  • Negative Sentiment: Trading conditions remain weak, with the open market sales rate around 0.48 for the half and roughly 0.5 since April, while management expects no material market improvement for the rest of the year.
  • Negative Sentiment: The company reported a HY revenue of £197.6 million and an adjusted operating loss of £11.9 million, leading the board to cancel the FY 2026 dividend.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Crest Nicholson said it remains in constructive talks with lenders to amend its facility agreement and has extended temporary covenant waivers to 30 September while the transaction is finalized.
  • Positive Sentiment: Cash and balance-sheet actions are progressing, including land disposals, slower build activity, and WIP reductions, with management targeting further cash generation and a year-end reduction in remediation obligations to around £140 million.
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Earnings Conference Call
Crest Nicholson H1 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Okay. Good morning, everyone. Many thanks for taking the time to come and see us today. Just to remind you how we'll go through things this morning. I'll give a quick summary of the period. Bill will then talk through the financials before I provide an operational update and make some comments on the outlook. We'll then hand over for questions. Despite the challenging backdrop, we have made good strategic progress in the half and Project Elevate, the transformation program to reposition Crest Nicholson towards the attractive mid-premium segment, is firmly on track. We have made clear progress in the half across product design, the customer proposition and experience, along with operational improvements. Our new house type program is also progressing well, with a number of planning applications now in progress, which will underpin higher quality, more differentiated developments in the years ahead.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

At the same time, we are continuing to improve our efficiency and effectiveness, simplifying the business and strengthening the foundations for long-term profitability. Operationally, sales rates since April have been lower than in the early part of the year at around the 0.5 level. The land market still remains very subdued. Therefore, alongside progressing our strategy, we have continued to take the right action to protect our business and position for when things improve. We're focused on cash generation and cash management, making good progress with working capital optimization, aligning build activity closely with demand and reducing costs. One of our strategic priorities and a pillar of Project Elevate is customer service, and we are pleased to have maintained our five-star HBF customer satisfaction rating.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Our lending group remains supportive, and we're in constructive discussions with them to amend certain parts of the facility agreement. These discussions are well progressed but remain ongoing. We have agreed further temporary covenant waivers to the end of September to allow us time to document and complete a transaction. Together with our rigorous focus on cash management, this gives us a stable platform from which to continue executing our strategy with discipline and confidence. Everyone is aware of the challenging macro backdrop and the impact that has across various parts of the U.K. economy, and especially the housing sector. However, the mortgage market has moved from a period of volatility towards one of greater stability. Inflationary pressures are slightly easing. Importantly, the government remains supportive of the housing sector.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

While the near-term trading environment continues to be challenging, we are confident in the actions we have taken and are taking. Crest Nicholson is controlling the factors within its control and building a stronger, more resilient, and better positioned business for the future.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

I'll now hand over to Bill, who will take you through the financial performance in more detail.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Thanks, Martyn, and good morning, everyone. I will now take you through the current status of discussions with our lenders, the measures we are taking to optimize cash flow, an update on fire safety, a financial summary of the half and the guidance for FY 2026. You know that we have been in discussions with our lenders over the past couple of months. We have been operating under a temporary waiver of the interest cover covenant to allow us and the lenders to agree amendments to the covenants. We have made good progress over the last few weeks. The waiver period has been extended to allow time for conclusion of the discussions and documentation of the agreement, which we expect to achieve by the 30th of September.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Given the ongoing discussions, I am unable to provide any further color at this point, but we will, of course, provide more details when everything is finalized. As Martyn said, the key focus for the business at the moment is liquidity and cash flow management. The two key areas to drive out cash from the balance sheet are land sales and WIP management. While the land disposal program is taking longer to action in the current macro environment, we have completed one material land disposal in the first half. We are active in the market on several others and would anticipate that two or three further completions in the remainder of the current year.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Total revenue for the year would be of the order of GBP 40 million, which is in line with the guidance we provided in April. From a cash flow perspective, we have received GBP 10 million to date, have GBP 50 million to come in the balance of the year from deferred receipts from land disposals in previous years, and expect to receive up to GBP 20 million from new land sales for a total of GBP 70 million-GBP 80 million in the year. We have sufficient land in the portfolio for FY 2027 deliveries and are being selective on a small number of bids for land supporting FY 2028 deliveries and beyond.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

On inventory, the key action has been to drive a significant slowdown in the pace of build across the entire portfolio. We have targets in place on all sites to reduce the current WIP to realign to an expected lower rate of sales. We have already made good progress here and expect to reduce by about a further GBP 20 million-GBP 30 million by the end of the year. On finished goods, we are targeting very specific discount structures at a plot level so that we maximize the cash opportunity in the year while desirable plot margins are protected.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

The fire remediation program continues to progress well and is delivering in line with our plans. All surveys are now complete. The table at the top of this chart shows you the analysis of our progress on the external wall work, which is where the bulk of the cost and risk lies in the remediation program. We have made good progress in getting more buildings started and have now completed external work on 60 buildings. Overall, our estimate of cost has remained broadly stable with an increase of around 2% of the remaining work. Included in the provision are all the costs for all known buildings, internal and external work, build cost inflation, project management costs, and our best assessment of known risks.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

We did not make any recoveries in the first half of the year, but have successfully recovered GBP 3.8 million so far in the second half, and remain active on several other recovery prospects. Overall, this takes our total recoveries to GBP 35 million. As a reminder, we do not include any assumption in the provision for recoveries and only account for these when we receive the cash. Here you can see the key financial headlines and clearly a disappointing outcome. Revenue for the year was GBP 197.6 million, with GBP 184.9 million from housing and GBP 12.7 million from land. I'll have more sales metrics for you on the next slide.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Adjusted gross profit reduced by GBP 21.5 million, with GBP 13 million from lower housing volumes and mix, and GBP 3.5 million from lower profit on land. We've also taken higher NRV provisions for reducing sales prices on unsold plots at legacy apartment schemes and taken a more cautious view on cost inflation at some of the completed sites. As a result, the adjusted operating loss for the half was GBP 11.9 million. Adjusted net finance expenses were GBP 6.3 million, and the exceptional items before tax were GBP 17.9 million, which I will take you through later on. The basic loss per share was GBP 0.051. Given the loss in H1 and outlook for the year, the board will not be proposing a dividend in FY 2026. On sales metrics, average outlets were 41, in line with our expectations, and now starting to head in the right direction.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

The open market sales rate for the half was 0.48. This was predominantly driven by the weak consumer environment in November and December. A positive start to the spring selling season in mid-January delivered a sales rate of 0.64 through to the end of March, before a modest slowdown in April. Subsequently, we've been selling at a rate of about 0.5, in line with the broader market slowdown. On a regional basis, we're seeing good activity and sales prices in the Eastern and Southwest divisions. In the Midlands, our experience is more inconsistent with some good and some slower weeks. Trading is slowest in the south, as you would expect. We're not seeing any meaningful change in cancellation rates. On completions, we delivered 584, of which 76 were at joint venture sites. Open market units were down 5% to 414.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Bulk units reduced to 63, reflecting the strategic shift away from this channel, and affordable deliveries were 107. For the year, we're expecting 1,400-1,500, with the variation in the range dependent largely on the number of bulk transactions on completed apartment schemes. Open market units will be around 970-1,000. The reduction in the open market ASP from GBP 422,000 to GBP 414,000 is driven by mix, as is the overall increase from GBP 342,000 to GBP 352,000, reflecting a higher proportion of open market completions. The details of the exceptional items are as follows. The combustible materials charge was a net increase of GBP 3.6 million. There were no recoveries in the half, but as noted earlier, we have received GBP 3.8 million since the end of the half.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

There was an increase in completed site costs of GBP 5.1 million as we continue to deal with customer warranty matters on legacy sites. Restructuring costs relate predominantly to redundancies and lease costs from the closure of one of the divisional offices announced back in November. The net finance expense of GBP 3.6 million relates to imputed interest on the combustible materials charge. In the second half, there will be modest further restructuring costs and advisor fees related to the covenant reset process of around GBP 3 million. On the cash flow, the key changes in working capital are that we reduced inventory by GBP 2.2 million, despite the usual seasonal investments, and this will reduce further as we dispose of land and reduce build to align with the sales profile.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Debtors and other receivables reduced by GBP 16.7 million as we made good progress on collections. These were offset by an outflow of GBP 85.4 million from creditors and provisions, with the unwind of year-end creditors, the unwind of the combustible materials provision, and the payments in respect of the fire-related legal claim that was settled at the end of FY 2025. The net GBP 67.4 million from investing and financing activities is the net drawdown on facilities offset by payments to JVs, leases, and the dividend. On the balance sheet, inventory is approximately GBP 50 million lower than a year ago and in line with the year-end position, which is seasonally lower due to the completions profile.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

We made good progress on WIP controls. There will be further reductions in the second half as we get the benefits of slowing the pace of build to realign the inventory position to the sales rate. There was an overall 10% reduction in land creditors, and I expect that to reduce further to close to GBP 60 million by the end of the year. The fire remediation provision reduced by GBP 23.2 million, as explained earlier, and by year-end, further spend of GBP 40 million-GBP 50 million will reduce the remaining obligation to GBP 140 million.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Turning now to the guidance. Volume is expected to be between 1,400 and 1,500, with most variability coming from the number of bulk transactions on completed inventory. EBIT is expected to be in the lower half of the previously guided range of GBP 5 million-GBP 15 million. We are not giving guidance on FY 2027 at this stage, given the wider macro uncertainty.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

I'll now hand you back to Martyn to take you through our progress on Project Elevate and a wider business update.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Many thanks, Bill. I thought it worth making a few comments about the market backdrop before updating you on our strategic and operational progress through the period. The market started 2026 well, with sales and inquiries up on the previous months in Q4 2025. The sales rate for the half was 0.48, between January and the end of March, encouragingly, it was averaging 0.64. The war at the end of February has undoubtedly affected consumer confidence, reducing inquiries and visitor levels. Coupled with significant softening sentiment in the land market, we responded quickly to these demand signals and have continued to manage the business with discipline through that softer trading environment. While the longer term fundamentals of the housing market remain strong and the chronic underlying need for new houses remains compelling, the broader near term macroeconomic environment continues to be uncertain.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Affordability has changed little in recent months, although the mortgage market remains supportive, with banks continuing to demonstrate a willingness to lend to credit worthy customers. Mortgage rates have remained broadly stable rather than improving materially. These conditions continue to influence purchasing decisions, particularly for first time buyers and customers with higher borrowing requirements. As a result, mortgage approvals have moderated from the stronger levels recorded earlier in the year, reflecting a more cautious consumer environment. Looking ahead, we expect the summer trading period to remain broadly consistent with current levels, and we're expecting no material improvement in either the housing market or the land market for the balance of the financial year. Beyond that, the market has clear supportive drivers. The underlying need for new homes remains significant, employment levels remain supportive, and mortgage finance continues to be available.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

As confidence improves, we believe these fundamentals will support a recovery in customer demand and help underpin the delivery of our medium-term targets. I mentioned earlier that we are focused on what we can control and are making Crest Nicholson a better, higher quality and more consistent house builder for all of our stakeholders. This is a significant transformation and will take time, but the progress we are making is tangible and the commitment across the business gives me confidence in the direction we are taking. Firstly, creating a better product. We have now completed the design of our new house type range, representing a significant milestone in the program. These homes have been specifically designed to better attract our target customer. The external visuals are of a high quality, have improved layouts and enhanced specifications.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

They will begin to be launched on selected sites during FY 2027, with planning submissions already progressing as expected. Secondly, delivering a better customer experience. Our ambition is for Crest Nicholson to be recognized as the house builder of choice in the mid premium segment, and transforming the entire customer journey is fundamental to that. The customer experience was not where I believed it needed to be when I arrived, but we have made significant practical and cultural changes, and those improvements are now coming through in customer feedback and in our HBF five-star rating. The number of issues being dealt with under warranty has reduced by 30% over the last four months alone, and the cost to remediate has reduced by 30% over a 12 month period.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

There is more to do, but the direction of travel is clear and the benefits of the changes we have made are evident. A good example of this would be our continued investment in digital capabilities, including the rollout of Digisuite, further development of our Arteva specification range, and the implementation of HubSpot, enabling richer customer insights, more personalized engagement, and a more seamless buying experience. Together, these initiatives are helping to strengthen customer engagement, improve sales conversion, and reinforce our premium positioning. For instance, we are seeing the time to exchange contracts and reservation decrease by 10%. The look, feel and experience of being a Crest customer is now very different. The other theme I'd like to update on is our progress in making Crest Nicholson a better operator. Alongside improving the customer proposition, we are continuing to strengthen the way the business operates.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

We remain disciplined on costs, have enhanced our commercial controls, and are focused on reducing unnecessary cost leakage across the business. These operational improvements are helping us build a leaner organization and stronger financial discipline and better decision making. Customers are happier and we are building homes more efficiently and effectively. Taken together, these initiatives are reshaping Crest Nicholson into a more focused, high quality business. We have already reached several important milestones. The benefits are beginning to come through and we remain firmly on track to deliver the operational transformation we outlined at our Capital Markets Day, and the financial benefits that will flow from that. I've talked before about the importance of our strategic land bank and its value to Crest Nicholson.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

It underpins our long term growth ambitions, providing a high quality pipeline of future development opportunities with the flexibility to bring sites forward in line with the market conditions and our capital allocation priorities. In addition to our short term land bank comprising 13,400 plots, which we are actively reshaping, our strategic land portfolio comprises around 41 sites, representing approximately 16,500 plots. The portfolio is well advanced, with around 67% of the plots on those sites either having a planning status of allocated or are included as part of a draft allocation. That's moved from circa 39% three years ago. Importantly, if we include the unallocated sites, where they are located in a local authority area without a proven five-year housing land supply, then that figure rises to 82%. In other words, almost 14,000 plots could be granted a planning consent in the next two to three years.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

It's also worth noting that the land value on these option sites is at an average discount of 19% to the open market. All in all, we have a great confidence in both the planning prospects and of these sites and returns that they will deliver. There are a couple of points to make here, which pick up on the very positive momentum that we're seeing in our land bank planning status. From our perspective, much like the changes we made to our handling of the fire remediation situation, developing and empowering a strong central function has made a big positive difference. There is much greater and more effective management with the local authorities, and to be fair, they are responding positively, reflecting the government's keenness to push things through the planning process.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

We do continue to look at new options, Critically, the sites that we look at now are consistent with our new strategy. You'll remember that I've spoken previously about the high value and high working capital intensive sites which were too large for a house builder of our size. The average size of those sites that we're now entering into option agreements for is circa 200 to 250 plots, providing a much more manageable and mixed portfolio for the future. I've set out before our need to improve the homes we want to build to reflect our mid-premium brand and better attract our target buyers. We've carried out a huge amount of work redesigning the entire range of homes that we build and have already incorporated on the current sites many aspects of specification that reflects our brand values.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

We continue to progress planning applications for the new house type range, I'm pleased to say that we have started construction on our first development with the new Timeless range in Heybridge, in Essex. I look forward to taking you around a new show home when it is ready. I think you'll be able to see the difference. Critically, as well as being better and more appropriate product for Crest, we also know the incremental margin is higher than what we are currently building. We're expecting the first completions in FY 2027, with other developments being planned or replanned within the organization. I know that this combination of a completely reset customer experience from the first visit to a website or a development through to our aftercare post-completion alongside this new range is a positive strategic shift.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

We continue to invest in our teams to ensure that we continually improve our build quality across all of our developments. As well as our own internal quality teams that assess the sites independently from the divisional teams, we also use the data provided by our two warranty providers, NHBC and Premier Guarantee, to measure performance standards. By referring to the tables here, you can see I've shown the NHBC reportable item metric, which has reduced further in HY 2026. Improvement with NHBC is defined by a lower score. You can see we have continued to improve to 0.23, an improvement of 57% over the last 2.5 years. With Premier, their site inspection rating is a measure of a range of KPIs and represents as a score out of five for each site and ultimately our group average score.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

We've again seen improvements year-on-year with the HY 2026 score of 4.56 compared to 4.15 at the end of FY 2023. Both of these metrics are important as it shows we are building better, providing a better home for our customers, as well as reducing our abortive works and our ongoing customer care costs in future years. To this point, we've reduced the customer service cost for issues reported within the two-year developer warranty period by 30% this year, 50% over the past two years, whilst gaining and maintaining a five-star HBF customer satisfaction score. In recognition of the work we are doing on site, we received two NHBC Pride in the Job Quality awards and seven nominations for the National Premier Awards, our highest award count for many years.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

In April, we stated that we expected build cost inflation to increase to circa 4%-5% this year as the effect of the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. While we have seen reductions from the high oil prices in April and May, over the last weeks, it will take some time to filter that back through our supply chain partners. Where we have been able to negotiate surcharges based on diesel cost, then these surcharges are reducing. Where suppliers heavily reliant on oil for the manufacture of their products did increase costs, we are now seeking to renegotiate to mitigate the effects of the price rises. We do also continue to progress alternative procurement methods to reduce costs without reducing quality, and also to seek more control through central procurement.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

For example, buying certain products directly from suppliers rather than including them in subcontract packages, which would incur their profit and overhead markup. Labor cost pressures are low and have typically increased by 1%-2%, with material costs increasing by 4%-5%, subject to surcharges around diesel costs. Given this, current trajectories give us more confidence that build cost inflation will increase by a more moderate 3%-4% this year. We will of course continue to work with our supply chain and range of self-help measures to mitigate this further, but of course remain mindful of continued uncertainty in the geopolitical environment. We're also carrying out a range of self-help initiatives to manage our costs. For example, the value of unnecessary damaged or mishandled materials on site has reduced by circa 20% over the last year, and our unbudgeted costs are down by 25%.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

With a continued strong group oversight of our CVR reporting process, I'm confident we will continue to see improvements to the overall cost base. An important part of our transformation is sustainability, which we see not simply as an ESG commitment, but as a key differentiator of our mid-premium positioning. Today's customers increasingly expect homes that are energy efficient, responsibly built, and designed to support healthier, more sustainable communities. Sustainability has therefore become an integral part of what defines quality, making it a natural extension to our premium proposition. I'm pleased that our progress continues to be recognized externally. During the period, we achieved the highest possible AAA MSCI ESG rating, retained our A- CDP climate change rating, and continue to be included in the FTSE4Good Index. These independent recognitions provide strong validation of the progress we are making across our environmental, social, and governance agenda.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Beyond external recognition, energy efficient homes are increasingly attractive to customers, helping to reduce running costs while supporting stronger demand for well-designed, high quality developments. At the same time, we are well-positioned for the evolving regulatory landscape, including the Future Homes Standard, ensuring that sustainability remains embedded within our product design and development strategy. As I mentioned earlier, the challenges facing the housing market have been well-publicized. Our focus has been to change the softer trading conditions with discipline, particularly through careful cash management, while continuing to make good progress in the execution of our transformation strategy, Project Elevate. I'm pleased how the business has responded. Crest Nicholson today is a more efficient, more effective house builder than when I joined, with a stronger customer proposition, better operational discipline, and a clear strategic focus.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

There is clearly more to do. Of course we need to see improvements in our financial metrics, the operational and cultural transformation of Crest will continue to build over time. We have a clear plan. We are executing it with discipline, we are positioning the business well for when market conditions stabilize and demands return.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

With that, I'll hand over for questions.

Will Jones
Will Jones
Equity Research, Construction, and Building Materials Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

Thanks. Will Jones from Rothschild & Co Redburn. A few please, I think mostly around margin. Just the first one on land sales. Can you just remind us as to why the booking of the margin on the land sales went, I think, from 20 to virtually zero as we went through?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

It basically depends on the site. We equalize the margin across the whole site. If the site's got a low margin or if we have to take a price hit, that brings the margin down.

Will Jones
Will Jones
Equity Research, Construction, and Building Materials Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

If we were to model sales coming back in 2027, there hopefully would be a reasonable margin associated with it.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

I hope so.

Will Jones
Will Jones
Equity Research, Construction, and Building Materials Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

Yeah. Second on margin was, I think at least based on my numbers, it needs quite a big increase in the second half margin compared to the first. Is that the case, and what are the drivers if that's the case?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Yeah. The first half margin's depressed by the NRV provision that we've taken. All the NRV provision is based on clearing out apartment schemes from legacy sites. We've taken a V1 price on those. There's a hit on that in the first half, and then anything that comes through on those sales comes in at zero margin in the second half. The overall blend should improve in the second half.

Will Jones
Will Jones
Equity Research, Construction, and Building Materials Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

The last one on margin was just, I think in the past you've given us a view at times of what you think the land bank gross margin is or might be. Are you in a position to update that today?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Haven't, but no change.

Will Jones
Will Jones
Equity Research, Construction, and Building Materials Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

Cool. The last one's more just a general one. When you think about the strategy you laid out at the start of last year, and then the current position around lender discussions and the macro at the moment, do you think there's any fallout in terms of how that might evolve on the other side, or is it too early to say?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

No, I think the strategy is still the right strategy. The challenge is getting there, because obviously with the slow sales rate on what we've currently got, it just takes us longer to get to the future, unfortunately. Yeah, a bit of help from the market would not go amiss.

Glynis Johnson
Glynis Johnson
Managing Director at Jefferies

Morning. Glynis Johnson, Jefferies. Three, if I may. One which you probably won't answer, but I'll ask it anyway. The first one just in terms of, Martyn, you talked about the higher margin on the newer housing types. Can you just give us a bit of color around that? Is it more confidence in terms of the pricing you can get because the specification is right for the customer? Is it about the palette of raw materials and that gives you economies of scale? Just talk us through and remind us why those new housing types are better margin. Second of all, in terms of the strategic land, you talked about the newer sites coming into strategic land being more appropriate size, but you do have quite a lot of big sites that I think still sit in that strategic land bank.

Glynis Johnson
Glynis Johnson
Managing Director at Jefferies

Timing is lumpy, of the sites that you think may come through in the near term, are there any of those sites which are particularly big, which we could see a step up, for example, in terms of land sales that might come through? I'm just trying to understand what we might see there. On the financing, you talked about, I think another cost in the second half of the year for the covenant reset. Is that for the current waiver or is that something to come? The 175 restriction on the RCF, what is the negotiation around that? Is there any help you can give us to tell us what might lift that or not lift that?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Okay. I'll take the last one first. We've said everything we can say, Glynis, thanks for trying. Do you want to pick up the other two?

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Yeah. Look, our new house type range has been designed so that we make best use of the site size, shape, orientation, location. We had quite a restricted range that we were selling from before, when you plot it, whilst it might look in practice that you get a reasonable coverage, square foot per acre, there were areas of the site that weren't very efficient. The new house type range covers odd shape sites, gives us more ability to have a varied street scene, we're not selling the same house type for four or five months, which then gives a limited option for any customer that walks through the door. The range of house types, better for plotting. You're right as well, it also offers or has given us an opportunity to actually reflect what customer needs, what they want.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

We've got a house type range at the moment that doesn't reflect the premium brand. There are compromises within that design as they have been developed over a period of time to reflect the change in regulations. The new house types reflect Future Homes Standard. They reflect M4(2) standards, therefore what we needed to do for future designs. In terms of the future land bank and the strategic land bank, yes. Some of those sites that we have under option are quite big. They are under option. We don't have to buy the whole site in one go. We could and take the economies of scale that that would bring. We then also have options to sell the parcels off.

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

With our embedded discounts that we have on the site, that discount would flow through, even if we sold the land then for what we paid for it before the discount. Yeah, there's opportunities to sell the land for profit in the future, but we can look at each and every one as they come through the planning system.

Charlie Campbell
Charlie Campbell
Managing Director of Equity Research at Stifel

Thanks so much. Charlie Campbell at Stifel. I've got a couple. I'll do them one by one if it helps. Just trying to help, this is a follow-up to Will's question really, just to help us bridge between H1 and H2. Operating profit H1 GBP -12 million, even at the bottom end of the guidance, you need GBP +16 million in the second half. There's some more volume, but it's not a lot more volume. I'm just trying to work through the moving parts. Is this more overhead saving that perhaps comes through? Is that what's doing it?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

It's a combination of things. The volume split is 40/60, there's a good amount of extra volume to come, and that's been the main challenge in the first half. There's more land sales, the land sales in the second half should be a bit better. As you say, overhead should help us out a little bit.

Charlie Campbell
Charlie Campbell
Managing Director of Equity Research at Stifel

Presumably, no NRV provisions in the second half, all else being equal as well, yeah?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

If we thought we were having NRV in the second half. It would be in the first half.

Charlie Campbell
Charlie Campbell
Managing Director of Equity Research at Stifel

Fair enough. Okay. Understood. Just to understand your interest charge guidance, that kind of assumes a conclusion to these negotiations, am I right? Should we think about next year? I know you said there's no guidance for 2027, we probably want to be multiplying the second half interest charge to get the FY 2027 interest charge. Is that the way we should be looking at it?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

You're probably not going to go too far wrong if you do that.

Charlie Campbell
Charlie Campbell
Managing Director of Equity Research at Stifel

Okay. Thank you very much.

Emily Biddulph
Emily Biddulph
Equity Research Analyst and Director of Housebuilding & Construction at Barclays

Morning. Emily Biddulph from Barclays. I've got three, please. I think you said your guidance for volume for 1,400 to 1,500 was dependent upon bulk deliveries to come through between now and the end of the year. Given where we are in the year, does that mean that you effectively make the bottom end of the range on guidance, even if you don't make any more bulk sales between now and then? Or are you factoring in something for bulk sales that you think is a conservative assumption to get to the bottom end of the range?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

We should get to the bottom end of the range without much more bulk, yeah.

Emily Biddulph
Emily Biddulph
Equity Research Analyst and Director of Housebuilding & Construction at Barclays

Okay. Are you able to give us guidance, sorry if I missed it, but on the number of affordable deliveries that you're expecting for this year?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Same as we had at the beginning of the Can I come back to you on that one, Emily? It's going to be probably 300, I would think.

Emily Biddulph
Emily Biddulph
Equity Research Analyst and Director of Housebuilding & Construction at Barclays

Okay. Thank you. Finally, sorry to hammer on the same point that Will and Charlie have talked about, I suppose the gross margin improvement that you're expecting for H2, given where the order book is at this stage, presumably you have pretty good visibility on delivering that at this point, barring the scope for some variance on what you get on those bulk sales. Is there any risk to come at the end of the year that you would highlight to us, like needing to equalize site margins if actually pricing is a little bit worse between now and the end of the year? Is there any risk to it, or are you quite confident in that margin delivery?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Yes. The risk is around if we do bigger discounts to generate cash. As we've said, we're focused on getting cash in.

Emily Biddulph
Emily Biddulph
Equity Research Analyst and Director of Housebuilding & Construction at Barclays

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Thanks, Emily.

Harry Goad
Harry Goad
Equity Analyst at Berenberg

Harry Goad, Berenberg. Have you given any guidance or can you give some guide on net operating net outlets for FY 2027, I guess a general comment about investment in WIP and the business into next year?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Sorry, Harry, I didn't catch the beginning of that. Could you say it again?

Harry Goad
Harry Goad
Equity Analyst at Berenberg

Any comment on net site openings into FY 2027 and I guess a general comment on investment in WIP into next year?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Yeah, look, as we said earlier on in the year, we expect site numbers to gradually increase from here. 40 last year, 41 in the half. Gradual progression. It's not going to be exciting, though.

Harry Goad
Harry Goad
Equity Analyst at Berenberg

Thank you.

Max Hayes
Research Associate Director at Cavendish

Hi there, Max Hayes from Cavendish. Just two questions from me. Sorry if I missed this, but you referenced build cost inflation around 3%-4%. What's your thoughts going into the second half and into FY 2027 on that? Yeah, just thoughts and color on use of JVs. Is that an area you're actively looking to increase just to decrease the upfront investment in new sites?

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

Yeah. On the build cost inflation, 3%-4% is what we see at the moment. It's pretty hard to call so far out given what's happening with oil prices. If you'd asked that question 10 days ago, I'd have said it's looking a bit better. Ask it now and I don't feel so good about it. I think that's just one that is going to evolve as time goes forward, really, depending a lot on what happens between Iran and the U.S. On the JVs, there's a JV site which is starting up fairly soon. Other than that, there's not going to be much JV action. We're focused on doing smaller sites, two, 300 plots, and we can manage that all on our own. We don't want to be doing bigger sites. It doesn't fit the mid-premium strategy.

Bill Floydd
Bill Floydd
CFO at Crest Nicholson

That's not going to be a feature going forward.

Max Hayes
Research Associate Director at Cavendish

Makes sense. Thanks.

Company Representative at Crest Nicholson

Any other questions?

Martyn Clark
Martyn Clark
CEO at Crest Nicholson

Okay. No? Okay. Thank you very much for your time this morning, and catch up during the week. Thank you.

Executives
    • Martyn Clark
      Martyn Clark
      CEO
    • Bill Floydd
      Bill Floydd
      CFO
    • Company Representative
Analysts
    • Will Jones
      Equity Research, Construction, and Building Materials Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn
    • Glynis Johnson
      Managing Director at Jefferies
    • Charlie Campbell
      Managing Director of Equity Research at Stifel
    • Emily Biddulph
      Equity Research Analyst and Director of Housebuilding & Construction at Barclays
    • Harry Goad
      Equity Analyst at Berenberg
    • Max Hayes
      Research Associate Director at Cavendish