Herc Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 28, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Pro forma equipment rental revenue returned to growth, rising 2% year over year in Q2 despite average fleet OEC declining approximately 3%; dollar utilization improved by more than 200 basis points.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management raised full-year guidance, targeting approximately $4.425 billion of equipment rental revenue and $2.09 billion of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoints, supported by stronger national-account and mega-project demand.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company increased its 2026 net fleet CapEx outlook to roughly $900 million, with about 70% of purchases expected in Q2 and Q3 and the majority weighted toward specialty equipment tied to identified demand.
  • Negative Sentiment: Fuel and transportation inflation rose approximately 35% from Q1 and reduced Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin by about 150 basis points; management expects roughly one percentage point of full-year margin pressure and has lowered free-cash-flow guidance to $250 million-$350 million.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Herc raised its long-term target share of the U.S. mega-project rental opportunity to 15%-20%, but said reaching the upper end will take several years as projects typically generate revenue over three to five years or longer.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Herc Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

Transcript Sections

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Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Herc Holdings Inc.'s Q2 2026 earnings call and webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Hunziker, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Leslie Hunziker
Leslie Hunziker
Head of Investor Relations at Herc

Thank you operator, and good morning everyone. Today we're reviewing our Q2 2026 results with comments on operations and our financials, including our view of the industry and our strategic outlook. The prepared remarks will be followed by Q&A. Let me remind you that today's call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the environment as we see it today and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the press release, our Form 10-Q, and our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, as well as other filings with the SEC. In addition, we'll be discussing non-GAAP information that we believe is useful in evaluating the company's operating performance.

Leslie Hunziker
Leslie Hunziker
Head of Investor Relations at Herc

Reconciliations for these non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP equivalent can be found in the conference call material. Finally, please mark your calendars to join our Q3 management meetings at Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference in California on September 16th. This morning, I'm joined by Larry Silber, Chief Executive Officer, Aaron Birnbaum, President, and Mark Humphrey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Larry.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

Thank you, Leslie, and good morning everyone. With the H&E integration successfully completed in the Q1, our entire focus in the Q2 shifted to execution. As we've discussed, the H1 of 2026 was about converting our larger optimized platform into stronger utilization and revenue growth as we move through the seasonal ramp. I'm incredibly proud of how Team Herc is performing. In the Q2, we reached an important post-acquisition turning point as pro forma equipment rental revenue returned to growth, increasing 2% overall. Importantly, that return to growth happened earlier than we expected within the quarter, which gives us momentum and confidence heading into the H2. Alongside revenue growth, disciplined fleet management drove positive fleet efficiency as we continued to align the combined fleet.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

We are also progressively capturing more of the value of this acquisition as revenue cross-selling synergies build and cost synergies track the plan. That operating momentum, combined with accelerating customer demand, gives us confidence to raise our full-year guidance today. Of course, the quarter was not without its challenges. Fuel inflation was a macroeconomic headwind that pressured margins, most notably in April, though margins improved as volume built through the quarter. Mark will take you through those details. Turning to slide five. We continue to follow our playbook, executing against our long-term growth strategies. First, we are growing the core. Today, our top-line growth continues to be led by national accounts, fueled by robust mega-project activity. The H&E acquisition was well-timed, adding scale, fleet capacity, talent, and branch density to expand our role on large, complex projects and capture a greater share of this increasing demand.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

Second, we're expanding specialty. Specialty revenues were up double digits in the quarter, and we continue to disproportionately invest in specialty fleet to support mega-projects, our new specialty branches, and the cross-selling opportunities across our combined customer base. Third, we're elevating technology. As an industry leader, our digital capabilities remain a true differentiator. We continue to invest heavily in our proprietary ProControl platform, utilizing AI and advanced telematics to give customers the insights they need to track, measure, and manage their fleet for a safer, more efficient job site. Engagement is building quickly. Active external users on ProControl grew nearly 20% quarter-to-quarter as more of our combined customer base puts these tools to work. At the same time, our e-commerce channels provide 24/7 flexibility for customers who know exactly what they need.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

The platform is a seamless way to transact and secure equipment on their schedule, always backed by the expert support of our sales and branch teams. That convenience is clearly resonating, as Q2 was our highest revenue-generating e-commerce quarter to date. Finally, we're investing responsibly in fleet to support highly visible customer demand while maintaining capital discipline and managing our balance sheet for the long term. Now moving to slide six. Our ability to execute at this level is a direct result of our people and our culture. Integrating a large, complex acquisition while simultaneously pivoting back to growth in an uneven demand environment requires an exceptional organization. We have built a culture grounded in collaboration, standardized processes, comprehensive training, and industry-leading technology to execute consistently across our expanded network. The absolute foundation of that culture is safety.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

It is the non-negotiable starting point of everything we do. By equipping our teams with the right training and safe, well-maintained gear, we ensure they can perform at their best while delivering the superior, reliable service our customers expect. Team Herc's dedication to operating safely and efficiently is what makes our growth possible. Now, before we discuss the financial outlook, let me turn it over to Aaron to talk about our operational performance and initiatives. Aaron?

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Thanks, good morning, everyone. I 100% agree with Larry's comments on the strength of our culture. It was the dedication, discipline, and collaboration of our team that allowed us to integrate the H&E acquisition so efficiently. With that heavy lifting behind us, we have fully pivoted to execution. Our sales force is aligned and fully engaged. Our operating model is standardized across the network. Today, we are actively leveraging our expanded geographic footprint and beginning to capture the efficiencies of scale and the synergy opportunities that made this combination so compelling. Turning to slide eight, optimizing our fleet was a critical integration initiative, getting the right equipment into the right markets with the right mix. Optimization isn't a one-time event. It requires continuous active management to stay ahead of evolving demand trends. This is where Herc excels.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

We are experienced, disciplined fleet managers, it showed in the quarter as we brought the combined company back to positive fleet efficiency, where revenue growth outpaces fleet growth. By keeping our focus squarely on improving utilization, we generated 2% higher pro forma equipment rental revenue on approximately 3% less average fleet at OEC compared to last year. That improved efficiency is exactly what positions us to grow. With the fleet now tightly aligned to demand and utilization moving higher, we have the operating discipline in place to invest in the accelerating opportunity we are seeing. As seasonal volume ramped up in the quarter, we onboarded roughly $450 million of our 2026 fleet buy. Through the H1 of the year, we added $634 million of fleet at original equipment cost.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

A portion of that spend supports the revenue synergy target we set for this year, while another portion supports the planned mega-project growth embedded in our original fleet plan. Today, however, our pipeline and on-rent activity on large multi-year projects are tracking ahead of our assumptions. External data also continues to point to increased mega-project starts this year. We are stepping up fleet investment where we have high conviction in the rising demand and where our larger scale is enabling us to expand our role with major contractors and grow share of wallet. Mark will walk you through the revised capital investment plan in just a minute. Even as we increase fleet investment, we remain highly disciplined with life cycle management. In the quarter, we disposed of $247 million of fleet at OEC, generating healthy proceeds of approximately 46%.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

You'll see that our full-year disposals step up from our original plan. That's intentional. As demand acceleration is coming from mega-projects especially, we are fine-tuning the fleet mix for today's environment. Recycling that capital at healthy recovery rates helps fund the higher demand fleet and keeps us capital efficient. On slide nine, despite the stronger rental activity we're seeing, the overall demand environment remains bifurcated. Local market activity is stable in general, though the dynamics vary. While some markets are feeling the brunt of the weakness in the interest rate sensitive commercial sector, others are experiencing growth driven by infrastructure, education, healthcare, and MRO. Certain local markets are also benefiting from the secondary demand generated by nearby mega-projects. That said, national accounts are where we continue to see the strongest growth, driven by increasing activity across energy, data center, and manufacturing projects.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

The H&E acquisition significantly increased our bandwidth to serve this national market. Legacy Herc was already a strong mega-project participant. What's changed is our ability to take on more of these opportunities and expand our role with major contractors because we now have more fleet capacity, more branch density, and a larger operating platform. As such, we have increased our target share of the total U.S. mega-project opportunity from 15%-20%. In today's uneven environment, diversification across geographies, project types, and customer accounts is what drives our resiliency and gives us a distinct competitive advantage. You can see the breadth of that diversification on slide 10. This is where our diversification becomes more tangible. We serve contractors, industrial accounts, infrastructure and government agencies, commercial facilities, and event-driven customers, and each of those groups has different demand trends, project requirements, and service expectations. That's why sector expertise matters.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Our sales teams understand the language of their customers, the nuances of their projects, and the equipment and service requirements that matter most in each vertical. Whether it's a data center, a healthcare project, a utility job, or a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, we can bring the right solution to the table. Now with a larger platform, broader fleet availability, and leading-edge technology tools, we can support those customers in more ways. That's what helps us deepen relationships and create stickier, higher-value opportunities over time. Those opportunities aren't just broad, they're deep, and they keep growing. Turning to slide 11, the external data continues to back up what we're seeing in the field, with Dodge projecting over $800 billion of U.S. megaproject starts in 2026, well above the level we saw in 2025.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

We know investors are trying to translate these massive headline numbers into actual rental revenue, so let me frame how we think about it. First, that Dodge number reflects total construction value, not equipment rental spend. Historically, about 2% converts into rental, though that varies by project type. Second is our target share. As I said, over time, we are now targeting 20% share of that megaproject rental opportunity. Third, these are multi-year jobs, so the revenue doesn't hit all at once. It's spread over the duration of the project, which is typically three to five years or more. The math is more nuanced than the headline suggests. The takeaway is simple: the market opportunity is large, it is durable, and we now have the capacity to capture a meaningfully larger piece of it as these projects ramp and new projects enter the pipeline.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Turning to slide 12, this is the framework we introduced at the beginning of the year to illustrate our 2026 operational progression. The key message is that the playbook is working. The integration actions are behind us, the foundation is in place, and we are now moving into the acceleration phase with a 30% larger, more efficient business, a highly productive fleet, new specialty locations gaining momentum, and a larger sales force maturing across the network. As we execute this playbook, two factors have shifted since we set our original plan. The first is the strengthening megaproject demand we just discussed. The opportunity is larger than we expected earlier in the year, and we are increasing fleet investment to support that growth based on the robust project pipeline in front of us. We are adjusting our equipment rental revenue guidance accordingly.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

The second variable is fuel and logistics inflation, which reflects as significantly higher beginning in April as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Larry touched on this earlier, Mark will take you through the specifics, but let me give you some operational insight into how we're thinking about logistics longer term and the opportunity it presents, because fuel and logistics inflation isn't only a cost-recovery issue. With a much larger network in place, we have an opportunity to improve the way we manage transportation economics across the platform. That work is underway through a comprehensive logistics transformation initiative that began in late 2025. It builds on the progress we've made over the last several years, but it's designed for the scale of the company we are today. The focus is on better routing, stronger process discipline, improved cost recovery, and more consistent execution across the network.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

This is a multi-year effort, and it is above and beyond our acquisition cost synergies. Over time, we expect it to help us build a more efficient, scalable delivery engine that improves service for customers and supports ongoing margin improvement. As we move into the H2, the operating agenda is clear: with the right fleet against accelerating demand, continue improving utilization and fleet efficiency, we are focused on converting this larger platform into sustainable growth. Mark will now walk you through the financial results and the updated outlook. Mark?

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Thanks, Aaron. Good morning, everyone. I'm on slide 14 with a summary of our key financial metrics. Starting with our GAAP results, equipment rental revenue was up approximately 23% year-over-year, total revenues grew 20%, primarily driven by the acquisition of H&E, which was in our base for only one month in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased 19%, adjusted EBITDA margin was 40.4%. REBITDA, which excludes equipment and parts sales, increased approximately 18%, REBITDA margin was 41.4%. Margin pressure was driven by the impact of the H&E acquisition and fuel and freight inflation year-over-year. Adjusted net income was $48 million, or $1.43 per diluted share, including add-back adjustments of $4 million of restructuring and transformation costs. That includes initial costs of the logistics transformation initiative Aaron just discussed.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Because the prior year GAAP comparison includes only one month of H&E, slide 15 provides a more meaningful view of the combined company's underlying performance in the Q2. On a pro forma basis with Herc and H&E combined in both periods, equipment rental revenue increased despite the year-over-year reduction in average fleet at OEC, resulting in strong fleet efficiency in the Q2. Pro forma dollar utilization increased more than 200 basis points over last year, another clear indication that the combined fleet and the rental revenue mix are becoming more productive. On profitability, pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin was down approximately 60 basis points, pro forma REBITDA margin was down about 120 basis points. As noted, the largest source of year-over-year cost pressure in the Q2 came from fuel and transportation inflation, which is up approximately 35% since the Q1.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

This impacted adjusted EBITDA margin by about 150 basis points and adjusted REBITDA margin by 170 basis points. For context, not all fuel exposure can be recovered in real time. A portion of our fuel consumption comes from our own sales and service vehicles, as well as typical inter-region fleet positioning where there is no direct customer offset. On the delivery and refueling side, which is embedded in ancillary revenue, recovery depends on customer arrangements and contract terms. The timing of that recovery can lag sudden price moves like we saw in April. We're working on all of this through our own pricing actions, better pass-through discipline, and contract renewal negotiations.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Those fuel and transportation pressures were partially offset by improved operating performance and cost synergies, such that when you exclude fuel inflation, adjusted EBITDA margin was up 90 basis points, and adjusted REBITDA margin was up 50 basis points year-over-year. Turning to slide 16, you can see that we generated $202 million of free cash flow for the H1. We ended the quarter with ample liquidity of $2.1 billion and net leverage of 3.95x, and we paid our regular quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share. When it comes to capital allocation, as Aaron said, we're making a deliberate choice this year to step up fleet investment to meet increasing demand. Importantly, that incremental investment is weighted toward higher margin, higher return specialty equipment. As this fleet goes on rent against strong demand, it drives EBITDA growth.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Growing EBITDA is the most powerful lever for bringing down leverage. We like the flywheel set up we're beginning to see as we think about the trajectory into 2027. That brings me to guidance on Slide 17, which we are increasing to reflect stronger demand, particularly in national accounts. You can see the full ranges here. At the midpoint of the updated guidance, we now expect full-year equipment rental revenue of $4.425 billion, supported by roughly $900 million of net fleet CapEx. On a pro forma basis, the revised midpoint estimate reflects equipment rental revenue growth of nearly 5% on flat average OEC year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA is now projected to be approximately $2.09 billion at the midpoint of the range. A few key assumptions behind the updated outlook. Our incremental revenue synergy target for the year is unchanged at $100 million-$120 million.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

We feel really good about the progress we're making there. Cost synergies also remain on track, with an incremental $90 million this year towards the fully realized $125 million target by year-end. That said, oil prices have moved higher again since June, our guide assumes fuel and freight will remain cost headwinds in the H2. Given the uncertainty around how long that macro volatility persists, we're modeling a quarterly expense impact broadly consistent with the Q2.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

All in, we expect fuel and transportation inflation to create about a point of pressure year-over-year on adjusted EBITDA margin for full-year 2026. Finally, as a result of the higher fleet investment, free cash flow is now expected to be between $250 million-$350 million this year. The bottom line, the revenue inflection we expected is now underway. Demand is stronger than our original plan, and we are investing to capture that opportunity while continuing to manage fleet efficiency, costs, and capital with discipline. Now, let's open it up for questions. Operator?

Operator

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. We request to limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

Good morning, Jerry.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Jerry, hi.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Good morning, Larry. Good morning, everybody. I just wanted to ask, really nice to see the dollar yield accelerate over the course of the quarter. We're hearing about price increases up to a point per month in some regions. Can you just talk about the pricing environment that you're seeing? Is that consistent with the cadence that you've seen over the course of the quarter and into July, Mark?

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah, I think from our perspective, Jerry, the dollar utilization was quite honestly a lot of self-help. We saw and anticipated the fleet to get healthier as we sort of worked our way in inflecting through Q2. That happened probably a little bit ahead of where we thought it would, and that's probably the biggest driver in the lift from a dollar yield perspective. I think on the pricing environment, I think at the end of the day, we have a rational and constructive pricing environment. The supply and demand dynamics are extremely healthy. It's a huge focus for us, and we're going to continue to sort of push price like we always do.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Okay. Super. On the time utilization part of the equation, when we look at the strong results you folks were posting as a standalone company before H&E, dollar yield in the mid-40s. How much progress can we make on closing that dollar yield gap based on what you see in front of you compared to what Herc posted on a standalone basis, call it four years ago?

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah. It's a great question, Jerry. I think you have to think about that sort of in context of averages. Herc was probably running 42s and 43s. I think as we sit here today, there's still a mixed component of that that we have to continue to invest in to sort of bring that overall mix back up to where Herc was on a standalone basis pre-acquisition. I do think as you think about sort of the incrementals from a dollar use perspective, I think you can anticipate probably seeing what you saw incrementally from Q1 to Q2. Probably that sort of lift into Q3 and Q4 as well, year-over-year dollar use lifts.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Good morning, Rob.

Rob Wertheimer
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Good morning, guys. I know you just touched on it with Jerry and previously, what do you see as your biggest margin opportunities going forward? Are there still inefficiencies? There are still a lot of sales force ramp as you try to get people to sell the broader range of what you guys do. Just curious what gets you back there. I'll just ask my second now. On mega projects, does this put you in a position of wanting to bid for more first position in mega project? Maybe you could just talk about that opportunity widening out. Is that just more support or is that a change in how you'd approach go to market? Thank you.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Yeah, Rob, on the margin question, I would say it's moving our mix profile back to where we were with specialty. We have a longer term goal of taking our specialties to a 20%-30% range of our business. After the H&E acquisition, we fell down into the mid-teens. Moving that back up really helps our margin profile. There's a lot of self-help stuff we can do, like we're talking about our logistics work we've embarked on, which will be a multi-year program. The sales teams are large, but they're still working. You learn how to work together from the acquisition. As that matures, you get the tools being used properly, tools like pricing discipline. Those are things that are going to help our discipline.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

On the mega piece, when we look back what our position was two years ago to now, we are more equipped to be the primary or a strong secondary on more mega projects than I think we were two or three years ago. Our scale matters a lot. Quite honestly, I've mentioned just the view that the large contractors take when they look at us, because we have more fleet, more scale, more capabilities, better technology than we had a few years ago. Those are all things that are positioning us in the right spot to win more.

Rob Wertheimer
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Thank you.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Morning, Mig.

Larry Silber
Larry Silber
CEO at Herc

Morning, Mig.

Mig Dobre
Mig Dobre
Analyst at Baird

Good morning, everyone. Just going back to the CapEx guidance increase. I think I heard two things going on, and I'm trying to parse out which is the bigger driver here. On the one side, you're talking about better demand in mega projects being at the root of that. You're also talking about leaning into specialty more. I'm trying to understand if this CapEx increase is a function of you trying to truly ramp up the specialty business, maybe taking advantage of that H&E footprint, or if this is more truly a demand signal. Presumably, this tells us something about 2027, really, given the timing of your CapEx increase. Help us parse these things out.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah, I would say, Mig, that the increased fleet is demand-driven. That demand is coming from both mega projects and specialty, and oftentimes those are going hand in hand. When you think about this or when we're thinking about this as we move into the back half of the year, that midpoint of the new guide grows fleet at about 300 basis points H2, and levels you year-over-year from an average fleet perspective. When we step back and look at that, I would tell you that this increased CapEx is absolutely not speculative. This is demand-driven and not a phase II, if you will, of the branch optimization where we're just trying to put additional fleet into those new specialty locations. That may be part of it, but the demand is the driver here.

Mig Dobre
Mig Dobre
Analyst at Baird

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up on the H&E integration, which you said that you're pretty much done with that. My impression of their business prior to you acquiring it is that pricing was a little bit different relative to what we would consider best in class maybe in the industry, maybe some of the things that you were doing. I'm curious where you are in terms of reassessing pricing for that part of the business, maybe some of the contracts that are a little more longer term in nature that H&E had.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah, I think you have to bifurcate that answer. Excuse me, Mig. You have to bifurcate that answer between the local market spot and the contracts. I think that maybe to answer your question directly, I think we're probably right where we thought we would be. Two, I think that the contract component of this will probably take sort of the three-year run to sort of raise the ultimate contract pricing to where we anticipated it to be back pre-acquisition. I think the spot market component will run as the local market runs. They're inside of our technology and pricing tools now, we're beginning to see those benefits today. I think that the real pricing lift comes from sort of the local market being reignited.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kyle Menges with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Morning, Kyle.

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Analyst at Citigroup

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping if you could just unpack a little bit what's going on in the fuel and transportation costs inflation, not sure if you're able to maybe break it down a little bit further, but maybe between what's stickier versus more transitory in your mind.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah.

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Analyst at Citigroup

Kind of what is tied to your sales and service vehicles versus just maybe timing of getting better recoveries, et cetera.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah. No, I think simplistically, if you think about 170 basis points of impact, I would call it all transitory as we sit here today. That's just a measure off of Q1. As I mentioned in my prepared, we saw somewhere in the order of magnitude of sort of 35% increases as we worked our way through Q2. Simplistically, probably half of that impact is not able to be passed on. You just think about sort of the inter-branch moves, which we've done from the beginning of time, and sort of the servicing of our own sales and service vehicles. That probably equates to about half of the impact.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

The other half, to your point and question is items that have the ability to be passed on to customers. We continue to sort of work there to make sure that we're as tight as we can possibly be as we move into Q3. The wild card is, does 35% become 50? Like I said, we sort of built in about the same level of impact in three and four, we'll see how it plays out.

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Analyst at Citigroup

Got it. That's helpful. Just curious, any update on the 50 or so specialty locations that you had opened in Q4 and Q1, and just how those are progressing in the ramp-

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah.

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Analyst at Citigroup

The cross-selling as well?

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Yeah, Kyle. Those are performing well. It was really just a benefit of an exercise with the real estate that we picked up from the acquisition to scale our specialty business that rapidly. That would've taken us several years to do without an acquisition with that much real estate. It's working very well. It'll take two years for that kind of that EBITDA margin to mature to a level that is alike our mature locations. They're contributing EBITDA now, and they're all managed by internal managers that came up through our organization. There's a lot of career movement with all those branch optimization openings. Our regional management's done a great job putting people in positions to win, and our team's working really well sharing fleet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Newman with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Good morning, Ken.

Ken Newman
Ken Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Morning, Ken.

Ken Newman
Ken Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Morning. Maybe first, Mark, just on the synergy capture target. Sorry if I missed this in your prepared remarks, of the incremental $90 million in cost synergies and the incremental $100 million-$200 million of revenue synergies, how much of that is left to kind of be realized in the back half of this year? Just to help us kind of frame just the momentum that we have looking into the Q3 and Q4.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah. I think you got to think about from a revenue perspective, it was always more heavily weighted to the back half, probably 60/40 back half weighted. From a cost perspective, that incremental 90, it started a little slower. That ramp now is probably extremely ratable from July through December. Probably 55% of that, if I'm sort of rounding here, probably is incremental back half, give or take.

Ken Newman
Ken Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Yeah. Got it. That's very helpful. For my follow-up, just going back to the fleet and the CapEx needs, it's good to hear that activity is heating up. It's supporting the visibility that you have into the back half. I guess, when you think about your suppliers and the price of equipment inflation, one, do you think the OEMs have capacity to support even further fleet expansion if the market supports it? Then two, how do you think about the incremental return on that next piece of equipment being bought? Because obviously this would be purchased outside of your advanced purchase agreements that you do late in the year of last year.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Yeah, look, we are very confident in the OEM's ability to supply us with gear in the back half of the year to the incremental levels. The vast majority of it, probably 70% of it, is specialty equipment that we'll be bringing in. We do think that that'll be able to contribute to the levels that we expect relative to financial performance and dollar use and time utilization, because most of that will probably go right to a job. It'll also set up a great flywheel going into 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Hi, Tami.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. My question is more of a medium-term question. Given your free cash flow expectation has come in a bit lower now, how do you think about your potential to de-leverage the balance sheet over the next 12, 24 months if you have to continue investing in CapEx in response to improving demand?

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah, no, it's a fantastic question, Tami. I think, just looking at 2026, firstly, it has very little impact to the 2026 leverage expectation we have there. I do think that you hit on it, though, and really hearkening back to what Larry just said, there's a flywheel effect of this into 2027. We're kind of staring at maybe 2.5%-3% fleet growth into 2027, generating EBITDA, which, as you are well aware, that EBITDA generation is the most efficient way to get that leverage down.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

I don't necessarily see, maybe very slight sort of short-term impact from a leverage perspective. As you think about that in context of getting to that 3x at the end of 2027, I don't see this as problematic in the slightest. I think we're going after the demand. Like I said, this is not speculative, so it should be EBITDA generating, which is what we need to sort of lever down to that 3x range.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Understood. That's very helpful. My second question is on fuel inflation. I appreciate all the comments you made earlier. I'm hoping to fish for some numbers, if that's okay. The 150 basis points fuel headwind in the Q2 you saw.

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Do you currently have any expectation of what that headwind might look like in Q3 and Q4 in terms of basis points?

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah, I guess what I would say is we're sort of anticipating the same level of impact in Q3 and Q4 that we saw in Q2. Obviously, Q3 and Q4 are higher equipment rental revenue quarters, so the % will go down slightly. What I would say is that we are anticipating about a point of drag for the entirety of the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Tyler with Rothschild & Co Redburn. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Hey, Neil.

Neil Tyler
Neil Tyler
Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

Hey, dude. Yeah, good morning. Just going back to the earlier question on the changed goal for mega-project participation. How does that impact your longer-term strategy in terms of customer mix? Therefore, I suppose, within that, any verticals that you think you might need to add to accommodate that changed go-to market strategy? That's the first one. Then the second question, I'll ask that now. On the longer term sort of logistics efficiency program, I appreciate that's going to take some years to sort of filter through and to smooth things out, but can you help us with how you're thinking about the upfront investment cost and at what point that sort of balances out with those efficiencies and whereabouts we will be when that happens?

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Okay. Neil, first part was the balance of our revenues. We believe to have a 60% local, 40% national mix is the right mix long term. In this environment with the interest rate pressure on the local markets, it's difficult to achieve, obviously there's opportunities, that's how we're moving our business in scaling and servicing those mega opportunities. Now, over time, the local is attractive to us because we're hopeful that cycle will change at some point. That's how we built our business. We have an urban market strategy. Actually, the pricing points, the pricing that you get in the local market is a better price point than your local. In the meantime, our fleet is fungible, so we can move it from the local markets to serve the mega projects.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Long term, 60/40 is still where we want to be, and we think that's the optimal way to manage the business. Now, we continue to focus on the local markets, right? We know that the cycle will turn. It always turns. We want to be ready for it. We continue to work on building our capabilities on the local market and not kind of conflating what we're doing in the mega with our core local business. Okay? That's always kind of the core part of our business, so we'll continue to be focused on that. The logistics, we're very excited about the logistics. It's actually something we started focusing on about three and a half, four years ago internally. We built a logistics team to focus on improving our recovery of costs for the Herc Rentals business before the big acquisition.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

When we moved to the big acquisition, we saw that we have all this extra scale, and although we got some early synergies with logistics by having more trucks on the road and in the urban markets, we saw that we could do much, much better. Logistics is a complex item. Our core business is rental and solution services, right? It's not logistics, but logistics is a big cost burden on the business. We're moving to become experts at the logistics side of our business, too. As far as the cost piece, we do have a core team.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

We expanded our team, and we enlisted some help from a large consulting company that has expertise in logistics because there's things that we knew that we couldn't do alone. That's beginning to happen. That engagement started earlier in the year. We'll call it January. Now we're rolling out into pilot. As we get traction, as we have more information to share, we'll provide that. We know that we focus, you win, and it's a multi-year project, and we'll get to a point where we're experts at our logistics businesses as well as our rental and solutions business.

Neil Tyler
Neil Tyler
Analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Morning, Steven.

Steven Ramsey
Analyst at Thompson Research Group

Good morning, everyone. Wanted to get deeper on the national accounts topic here. You can now reach the 20% share, at least on the mega projects. Is that something you expect to achieve in H2 2026, or is this something that you reach in 2027?

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

If you look back in time over the last few years, we've said our guide on our share of mega is 10%-15%. We said that the big acquisition really positioned us better, and we started to touch that 15% level. With our pipeline of activity, our commitment to new business contracts we have, what we're doing with our CapEx this year, we just see that we're going to shift from a 15%-20%. That doesn't mean we're going to get to 20% in 2026 or 2027. Over the next few years, we see our position strengthening to a 15%-20% range.

Steven Ramsey
Analyst at Thompson Research Group

Okay. That's helpful. Thinking about raising CapEx and better market demand, do you feel like you were missing opportunities in the marketplace and now with the larger fleet, you can capture that? Or is it simply it's out there and we can go get it now?

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

No, it's really just about Herc's positioning in the opportunities that are in the mega project arena, and our capabilities. We're a much different looking company than we were 15 months ago. That's really our view on where we're going with that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Hey, Seth.

Seth Weber
Seth Weber
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Morning.

Seth Weber
Seth Weber
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Nice to talk to you. You know, H&E historically had a pretty strong footprint in some petrochemical type projects. I'm wondering if you're seeing any pickup in that part of the world, specifically. Thanks.

Aaron Birnbaum
Aaron Birnbaum
President at Herc

Yeah, they had a good footprint in the Gulf, and in West Texas, the Permian, as did Herc Rentals. Herc had upstream, H&E had upstream. Herc had downstream, and H&E didn't have downstream. Our position is still in the mid-single digits, high single digits range. When oil shoots up the way it does, usually you see the downstream business slow down turnaround activity because they want to produce more fuel. It's kind of ebb and flow. No material change to our oil and gas business. Still in the mid to high single digit level.

Seth Weber
Seth Weber
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Okay, thanks. Can you help us on the CapEx cadence for the H2? It seems like Q3 could be unusually large here. Is that the right way to think about it? Q4 kind of goes back more normal? Is it just very heavily Q3 weighted?

Mark Humphrey
Mark Humphrey
SVP and CFO at Herc

Yeah. I think, Seth, the way I would tell you to think about that is, if you think about the new midpoint, $1.325 billion, and you think about 70%-75% of that being acquired in Q2 and Q3, I think that's the right way to think about it. I think that the Q1 and Q4 will come back and look normal. But I think you probably have a little bit heavier, and that's probably consistent as well, but Q2, Q3, heavier, 70%-75% of the totality, the remainder would fall into Q4.

Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Leslie Hunziker for closing remarks.

Leslie Hunziker
Leslie Hunziker
Head of Investor Relations at Herc

Thank you for joining us on the call today. We certainly look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters to come. Of course, if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. Have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Leslie Hunziker
      Leslie Hunziker
      Head of Investor Relations
    • Larry Silber
      Larry Silber
      CEO
    • Aaron Birnbaum
      Aaron Birnbaum
      President
    • Mark Humphrey
      Mark Humphrey
      SVP and CFO
Analysts
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