Tamarack Valley Energy Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Record financial results: Q2 adjusted funds flow rose 29% year over year to CAD 255 million, while free funds flow reached CAD 155 million, supported by higher commodity prices, production growth and strong operating netbacks.
  • Positive Sentiment: Strengthened balance sheet and shareholder returns: Following the Charlie Lake divestiture, Tamarack reported no net debt, more than CAD 500 million of cash and CAD 875 million of undrawn credit capacity. The company returned over CAD 165 million to shareholders in the first half through buybacks and dividends, and expects most 2026 free funds flow to support further repurchases.
  • Positive Sentiment: Clearwater waterflood momentum: Waterflood production contributed approximately 8,500 barrels per day, or 16% of Q2 Clearwater output, and injection volumes are expected to rise to 70,000 barrels per day by year-end. Management expects more than half of Clearwater production could be under waterflood within five years, potentially reducing sustaining capital needs and improving margins.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Capital spending and growth initiatives increased: Tamarack raised its 2026 capital program by up to CAD 75 million to approximately CAD 450 million, reallocating some Charlie Lake capital toward Clearwater development and waterflood expansion. Pelican drilling is expected to begin in late September or early October, while Seal activity is planned for winter, with more definitive results likely during the year-end or first-quarter reserve updates.
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Earnings Conference Call
Tamarack Valley Energy Q2 2026
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Operator

Good morning. Welcome, everyone, to the Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. conference call and webcast on Tuesday, July 28th, 2026, discussing the recent Q2 2026 results press release. I would like to introduce today's speakers, Mr. Brian Schmidt, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Steve Buytels, President, and Kevin Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad to join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two. Thank you. Mr. Schmidt, you may begin your conference.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Thank you, Sylvie. Good morning and welcome everyone joining this morning to discuss our operating and financial results for the second quarter of 2026. My name is Brian Schmidt. I am the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Tamarack Valley Energy. Today I am joined by Steve Buytels, President, and Kevin Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. We are proud to report our Q2 results, which delivered record cash flows accompanied by robust production and shareholder returns. Our results are underpinned by strong operational execution and bolstered by elevated commodity prices in the quarter, with global conflicts driving higher demand for responsibly sourced and reliable Canadian crude. We continue to build upon our operational momentum in the Clearwater. We are delivering efficient production growth through the drill bit, and we continue to observe strong reservoir response from the ongoing waterflood expansion across our core fields.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

We are on track to grow our Clearwater production by over 15% year-over-year and raise our exit water rate injection volumes by 75%, setting the stage for 2027 and beyond. This quarter included the previously announced divestment of our Charlie Lake assets for over CAD 800 million. This transaction reflects the culmination of a tremendous portfolio transformation over the last five years. Looking ahead, the transaction has positioned Tamarack extremely well for success. We are now a pure-play Clearwater operator with run rate production of over 54,000 BOEs per day, net cash on the balance sheet of CAD 130 million, and decades of low-cost, high-margin oil inventory. Kevin Johnson, our Chief Financial Officer, will now discuss our Q2 financial highlights.

Kevin Johnson
Kevin Johnson
CFO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Thank you, Brian. Clearwater production growth and strong operating netbacks drove record adjusted funds flow of CAD 255 million for the second quarter, or CAD 0.53 per share. This was a 29% increase compared to the same period last year. Net of our capital program, Tamarack delivered CAD 155 million of free funds flow in Q2. Year to date, the company has generated free funds flow of CAD 280 million, or CAD 0.58 per share.

Kevin Johnson
Kevin Johnson
CFO at Tamarack Valley Energy

We continue to boost per-share returns with our accretive share buyback program. We repurchased 6.5 million shares in the second quarter and 11 million year to date. Since the commencement of the program in January 2024, we have now reduced the common share flow by 15% at an average price of CAD 5.39 per share. Combining the buybacks with our dividends, Tamarack returned over CAD 165 million to shareholders through the first half of the year.

Kevin Johnson
Kevin Johnson
CFO at Tamarack Valley Energy

We declared our third quarter dividend of CAD 0.05 per share, payable on September 30th. Following the Charlie Lake divestiture, our dividend was increased by 25% and now equates to an annual distribution of CAD 0.20 per share. Strength continues to be a core focus for Tamarack. We have recently redeemed our remaining 2027 Notes and extended our credit facility with a four-year term maturing in 2030. A portion of the proceeds from the Charlie Lake sale were utilized to repay everything drawn on our credit facility. We have now eliminated our net debt position and have exited the second quarter with over CAD 500 million of cash on hand and undrawn credit capacity of CAD 875 million. Steve Buytels, our President, will provide an update on our Clearwater assets and outlook for remainder of the year.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Thanks, Kevin. Execution of our first half capital investment program was largely in line with our original 2026 budget plans and was predominantly focused on primary development activities. We drilled 42 horizontals in the Clearwater fairway utilizing a four-rig program. First half activities also included groundwork for our waterflood expansion plans in the back half of 2026. As Brian noted, we exited the quarter producing over 54,000 BOE per day from the Clearwater and are well on track with our full-year production guidance. Current waterflood injection volumes are approximately 45,000 barrels a day, and we now estimate that 8,500 barrels per day of our oil production is from waterflood uplift, which represents 16% of our Q2 Clearwater production. By early August, we will be ramping up to approximately 50,000 barrels a day of injection and are on track to achieve our 2026 exit guidance of 70,000 barrels per day.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

As you are aware, this year's injection is next year's production. Tamarack is observing prolific waterflood response from injection patterns commissioned in the prior year. At Marten Hills, the production under waterflood is back to 88% of the historical primary peak from more than five years ago and continues to trend higher. These waterflood barrels were added at a finding and development cost of less than CAD 1 per barrel. In West Marten, waterflood response is establishing new production highs beyond historical primary production peaks in both the B and C Clearwater sands. Strong, consistent results from these two areas have provided significant momentum in the reduction of our corporate decline and future sustaining reinvestment needs. Following the Charlie Lake divestiture and in response to the higher near-term commodity prices, we elected to accelerate more growth of our high-margin Clearwater barrels in the back half of the year.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Compared with our original budget, we are now spending an additional CAD 75 million in the Clearwater, which is balanced between primary and secondary waterflood activities. Approximately half of this capital expansion reflects the reallocation of the Charlie Lake capital that was previously scheduled in the back half of the year. All told, we are now targeting a full-year capital program of up to CAD 450 million. We continue to be excited about our prospective lands at Pelican and Seal and have expanded our delineation program to include three wells in the Pelican area, targeting both Clearwater and Wabasca formation prospects. Further to this, we continue to advance our enhanced oil recovery scheme simulation in both areas and, in addition to that, are currently executing two waterflood pilots on the South Clearwater Fairway.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Success in these areas would reflect a meaningful opportunity for us to bring forward incremental value into our five-year plan. Waterflood continues to be the recovery technology of choice across the main Clearwater Fairway, supported by strong production response and very attractive economics. Targeted evaluation of alternative recovery technologies, including thermal, is being focused on areas with differing fluid and reservoir parameters where other recovery mechanisms may be effective. We are applying a nimble capital allocation strategy to our business. We had originally set a 2026 budget utilizing an assumed US $60 WTI price. With higher commodity prices and cash flows, we are dedicating more capital for growth. We remain opportunistic with significant optionality and balance sheet strength to maximize the total return to shareholders.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Net of our expanded capital investment program, we expect the majority of our free funds flow generated in 2026 to be returned to shareholders in the form of share buybacks, further compounding our per-share value creation. Brian Schmidt will now deliver the closing comments on the call.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Thank you, Steve. In addition, we're pleased to announce the appointment of Scott Shimek to Chief Operating Officer. Scott joined Tamarack five years ago as Vice President, Production Operations. He brings significant experience from the energy industry, having his integrated diverse technical knowledge into various leadership roles. We also wish to thank the federal and provincial government for recent developments with respect to ongoing support for major projects in Canada, including the egress solutions out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which will benefit all Canadians and protect our sovereignty. This creates a positive business environment that reduces egress risk and enhances the business environment. Beyond our capital allocation strategies that Steve spoke about, I want shareholders to know that we remain centered on the day-to-day business and acceleration of the vast inventory of opportunities in front of us.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

We are committed to precise operational execution, technical rigor, and innovation. We continue to chase higher margins through our improved capital efficiencies, lower cost, and higher price realizations. Putting all these together, we believe we can continue to achieve our mission of maximizing long-term sustainable value for our shareholders. Thank you. I'll now turn it back to Sylvie for questions.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, as stated, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw from the question queue, please press star followed by two. Thank you. Your first question will be from Patrick O'Rourke at ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Patrick.

Patrick O'Rourke
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst at ATB Capital Markets

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe first, just congrats to Scott on the promotion to the Chief Operating Officer role. I guess just on the waterflood here, I think Q1 you noted 24% of production under waterflood exit targets around 38%. What percentage of that overall Clearwater production do you ultimately see being under waterflood as you roll out the strategy here?

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Hey, Patrick. Yeah, it's Steve here. On the five-year plan that we came out with and updated on the back of that Charlie Lake sale, we see that being north of 50%, approaching closer to 60% through the five years. What I would say is we'll continue to refine that as we go here, and we'll look to, in conjunction with our 2027 budget, update that. I think just with the positive results we're seeing in the incremental capital, there is a chance that that could be higher, and ultimately when we look at it, we put a new little update in the presentation where we talk about our sustaining reinvestment needs moving to sub 20% of our cash flow at a CAD 75 commodity price.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

When we think about it, I do think there is the opportunity to accelerate more of that production being under flood, and as such, that should result in more margin and more free funds flow really coming through the business in that plan.

Patrick O'Rourke
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst at ATB Capital Markets

Okay. I was going to ask on success case at Pelican and Seal, but I think I'll leave that for someone else to maybe shift here, just given the comment you just made. You've obviously got a lot of free cash flow, low sustaining capital. I'm curious where you see the optimal capital structure for this business, and I think about in excess of CAD 100 million in positive net debt on the balance sheet, how you think about releasing that to investors?

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

That's a good question. I'll start, and then if anybody wants to add. Having cash on the balance sheet has never been optimal in our view in terms of your cap stack. The cost of debt, especially after tax, is cheap, and we have significant returns, obviously, in our portfolio that we can bring forward. That being said, we're going to be a little bit patient here to just better understand the market. Again, I talked about the waterflood opportunities in front of us. You brought up Pelican and Seal. We do want to bring that forward, and the teams are working rigorously here on technical simulations in terms of what that looks like with respect to potential waterflood, perhaps polymer in certain circumstances, and then in some cases, even some of these thermal opportunities.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

We'll sit back here, but ultimately, we do want to put that cash to work. We likely will put the cash to work, but we'll do it in a very disciplined manner. Again, it's all about how do we bring forward more of this value that's sitting both in the plan currently with the waterflood, but also not in the plan currently that could be upside to that plan in Pelican and Seal and even places like the South Clearwater, where we're piloting that waterflood as we speak. Any other-

Patrick O'Rourke
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst at ATB Capital Markets

Okay.

Patrick O'Rourke
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst at ATB Capital Markets

Understood.

Patrick O'Rourke
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst at ATB Capital Markets

No. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Jamie Somerville at Roth Canada. Please go ahead, Jamie.

Jamie Somerville
Analyst at Roth Canada

Good morning, guys. I will be happy to ask the question on Pelican and Seal. What is the timing? Are we likely to see initial results and an operations update on that in Q4, or is that something that we will just be more likely to see conclusive results from with the year-end reserves update?

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Yeah, Jamie, that is a fair question. We are going to spud the first of those three wells in Pelican in late September, early October. I would say by the time we have good results to be able to share with you guys, we are probably talking more like our reserves in Q4. We could put an ops update out sooner than that. We will be targeting, like I mentioned on the call there, two Wabasca targets and then a Clearwater target. There are three different area competitors that are drilling those formations, and the rates, as we continue to see public data come out, continue to be really quite positive. We will get after that. I think the biggest thing for us is the teams are working, like I mentioned, on the technical simulations in terms of whether we move to waterflood or polymer flood, specifically at Pelican here.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

We will want to set up the well designs and our program to accommodate the ability to take on that enhanced recovery as part of this development program. We will have some good updates here as we move forward through the end of the year and into reserve season. Seal, it is a winter program there, that will be a little bit later, and we probably could potentially have an update with reserves, but it more likely would fold into the Q1 timing. There, it is really what we are doing is, again, simulating some different waterflood design in the three Clearwater packages there. We will finalize that here in the coming months, along with some core flood study, and then move that into that exploitation and testing phase, likely early in the new year.

Jamie Somerville
Analyst at Roth Canada

Perfect. Thank you. Maybe just one more. What's the hedging approach going forward with the cash on the balance sheet? Is there a minimum level that you'll stay hedged at?

Kevin Johnson
Kevin Johnson
CFO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Yes, it's Kevin. Going forward, we still have been layering on some hedges a year out with really wide collars. I think our last ones we put on were actually 50 by 100. We'll still maintain a modest hedge book, but now that we're in a net cash position, it'll be a much lower percentage. Where we were at 45%-50% in the past, it'll likely be somewhere closer to 20%. Already hedged looking at one year out with those wide collars or even just buying the bottom end for protection.

Jamie Somerville
Analyst at Roth Canada

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Jeremy McCrea at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Jeremy.

Jeremy McCrea
Jeremy McCrea
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hey, guys, I got a couple questions for you here. I'll start with the first one just related to waterflood again. What's the latest technology approaches to waterflood that you see for the coming year here? I know last year was about injecting faster, but what do you see for this year? Is it new types of patterns or just anything that you see on the horizon that could be a different way you've done things in the past year?

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Yeah, it's Brian. I'll take this question. In terms of technology, you're absolutely right. We focused on making sure we could maximize the injection rates that we have on the wells. The interesting thing is here, with horizontal wells and the speed of the water moving to the producer

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

It takes up to 20 years to get one turn of water through that whole reservoir, that's a very long time. That is in the high profit margin of the cycle where you're putting water in and you're getting a relatively low water cut. We still remain focused on how we could get the injection rate up, and it may result in some configurations or some application for more pressure, those sorts of things. Stay tuned on that piece. In terms of the technical development going forward, Steve brought up the extension of testing in the Seal area, Canal, and South Clearwater. I see that we're going to be able to extend some of these floods and include more OOIP in our inventory as we go forward.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

The other thing we're going to be doing is most of our wells have been single leg injectors, and we believe we can cut costs by using multi-leg injectors. There's a bit of a trick there because you don't want any bypass in the heel from the injector to the producer. We've been drilling down into the tighter shale, then coming back up into the Clearwater and putting in separate legs there. Lastly, in the South Clearwater area, we drilled a fan wells that are designed to be water flooded. Every second well in the fan will be converted over to injection, and when conversions, probably early 2027, we'll be starting to put water in every second fan on that. That hopefully, I think we're quite encouraged by how that simulation results turned out on there.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

We're pretty excited to see what happens there. I think, Jeremy, the one thing that I would tell you is that we have two reservoir engineering modelers on staff, and an ex-Shell advisor that I worked with years and years ago that have been instrumental in the design of some of these floods. I just saw some real exciting stuff this week, both on Seal and Pelican that where the guys have put together a real nice development plan using that reservoir simulator. I'm excited to see what this turns up.

Jeremy McCrea
Jeremy McCrea
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

No, that's a good detailed response. Thanks for that, Brian. Maybe just completely a bit of a shift here, just in terms of what Steve had mentioned, having cash on the balance sheet is not optimal. Do you see maybe more tuck-in acquisitions that you do with that cash or accelerating CapEx? If it is acquisitions, what's generally the criteria you use here to look at acquisitions?

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

Yeah. You know what, Jeremy, I think the key here is, when you look at what we've done with our land holdings in the Clearwater, just over the last year, we've quietly increased that by 30%. That is through Crown land sales and through some small tuck-in acquisitions. We did Woodcote last year. We did the Lineup Pelican PrivateCo acquisition, which was really just a bunch of land. We continue to be opportunistic, but very disciplined with that strategy. I think when you think about the cash on the balance sheet, some of that could go to things like that. Ultimately, what we need to do is we run internally an eight-year earnings model.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

You guys see five years of that output that we put in the deck, we need to be accretive to that ultimate earnings model, that's set at $55 US WTI. We never flex price on that. We make sure that we're bringing in inventory that high grades what we have in the plan or that sits outside the plan that we can take and make that more accretive. We're very, like I say, very disciplined on it, and it has to work in that model. We do see some opportunity there, I would say, but ultimately, Brian touched on Seal and Pelican. We have so much to do in our own portfolio, in terms of the waterflood upside. If you look at it, there's some good charts.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

In the core, we would hold the most what we see as acreage amenable to waterflood, and we have the least amount currently under flood. We've got to get after that. That's part of the capital expansion that we did and some of the use of proceeds that came in in terms of that cash. Bringing forward other opportunities like Pelican and Seal that currently are not in the plan, that could be highly accretive to the plan. I could see us using and accelerating some of the cash for that. The nice thing about this business is when your sustaining reinvestment rate is only 20% of your cash flow, you have a lot of optionality and margin for growth, for bringing and testing some of these concepts forward, and then continuing with our buyback to compound that per-share value.

Steve Buytels
Steve Buytels
President at Tamarack Valley Energy

We see a bunch of different potential uses there. Again, discipline is the key message I'd leave you with in terms of how we go about using that.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

I would add, just so we're crystal clear there. The rationale for moving off Charlie Lake was to get at the vast inventory we have, both in terms of primary drilling and waterflood. That's really where everyone is focused over here, is trying to get at that organic growth and accelerate that. You're seeing that come through the capital additions that we added this year. The other thing, guys, is I just think from the buyback point of view, Steve brought that up. We see a lot of good value in the stock because we're seeing the waterflood probably in advance of. We're just seeing some really good things happen there. We think that the credit will come through on the reserve reports year on year. We can see things relatively early. There's good value in the share.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Probably the best acquisition we could do is our own stock right now.

Jeremy McCrea
Jeremy McCrea
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Perfect. That's a good answer. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we have no other questions registered. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Schmidt.

Brian Schmidt
Brian Schmidt
CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy

Thank you, everybody. Appreciate you. If you have further questions, please reach through our website, and we'd be happy to answer them or give us a call. Thanks for your time this morning.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Executives
    • Brian Schmidt
      Brian Schmidt
      CEO
    • Kevin Johnson
      Kevin Johnson
      CFO
    • Steve Buytels
      Steve Buytels
      President
Analysts