ArcelorMittal Q2 2026 Earnings Report

ArcelorMittal EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.90
• Consensus EPS: $1.18
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.28
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.32

ArcelorMittal Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $16.76 billion
• Expected Revenue: $17.56 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$797.33 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +5.20%

ArcelorMittal Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2026
• Date: 7/30/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) S.A. is a global steel and mining company with operations spanning the Americas, Europe and Africa. The company produces and sells steel products for industries including automotive, construction, infrastructure, energy, packaging and general manufacturing.

Its portfolio includes flat steel, long steel, tubular products and tailored solutions designed for specific industrial applications. ArcelorMittal also operates iron ore mining and processing activities, which supply raw materials for its steelmaking operations and support its vertically integrated business model.

ArcelorMittal was formed in 2006 through the merger of Arcelor and Mittal Steel. The company is led by Executive Chairman Lakshmi Mittal and Chief Executive Officer Aditya Mittal.

ArcelorMittal Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Improving second-quarter performance and momentum: EBITDA rose to $2.1 billion, or $155 per ton, while underlying first-half free cash flow annualized at approximately $2.5 billion. Management expects shipments in the third quarter to be stable to higher sequentially, an unusually strong seasonal outcome.
• Positive Sentiment: European outlook strengthened: European EBITDA per ton reached a three-year high of $98, with stronger order books, firming prices and furnace restarts in Spain, Poland and France. Management expects the new tariff-rate quota to reduce imports and improve market share and margins, although higher production will also increase carbon costs.
• Positive Sentiment: Growth projects are expected to lift earnings: Strategic projects are projected to contribute $1.8 billion of incremental EBITDA from 2026 onward, including investments in India, Liberia, Brazil and the U.S. The company is also advancing studies for a second Calvert EAF and additional downstream capacity.
• Positive Sentiment: Long-term demand and shareholder returns remain priorities: Management sees structural demand from electrification, renewable energy, defense, infrastructure and data centers, alongside benefits from increasingly regional steel markets. It reiterated a focus on investment-grade balance-sheet strength, disciplined capital allocation, growing dividends and share buybacks.
• Negative Sentiment: Decarbonization investments remain economically challenging: The company said European DRI projects are not currently part of its plans because gas and hydrogen economics remain difficult, and future projects will proceed only if they generate returns above the cost of capital. European production increases will also bring additional ETS carbon costs.

Presentation

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call today to discuss our performance and progress in the second quarter and first half of 2026. Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which was published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 21 of that presentation. Following opening remarks from Genuino, we will be moving directly to the Q&A session. If you'd like to ask a question, please do press star one one on your keypad to join the queue. With that, I'll hand over the call to Genuino.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Daniel. Welcome everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. Let me start with safety, which remains our highest priority. ArcelorMittal Safety Transformation continues to deliver measurable progress. The frequency rate of lost time injuries in the first six months of the year was a record low for our company. While we are encouraged by these improvements, we remain firmly focused on driving further progress. Turning now to the business, I would like to focus on three key points. First, we are seeing positive near-term momentum across the business. The operating environment has improved through the first half of the year, driving improved results, and with positive momentum across all segments. There is more improvement to come. EBITDA for the second quarter improved to $2.1 billion.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

This represents a margin of $155 per ton, which is well above our previous through-the-cycle averages. Our European segment delivered an EBITDA per ton of $98, which is a three-years high, and demonstrates the early signs of the improved policy backdrop. Importantly, these results do not yet reflect the benefits of the new TRQ trade tool, which are becoming increasingly evident. Customer engagement is higher, our order book is getting stronger, and prices are bucking the normal seasonal trends. Reflecting these positive dynamics, we have announced production restarts in Spain, Poland and more recently France. As we head into August, we have our full suite of blast furnaces in operation. As a result, we are guiding to third quarter shipments to be stable to higher than the second quarter, which would represent a powerful counterseasonal outcome.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Underlying free cash flow in the first half was strong, annualizing at $2.5 billion, excluding seasonal working capital investments and the strategic growth CapEx. This is a strong outcome at this stage of the cycle and provides the foundation for continued investments and returns of capital to shareholders. This brings me to my second point, our differentiated portfolio of strategic growth projects and the opportunities that we are developing into growth options. The medium- and long-term outlook for our business is supported by a number of powerful megatrends. Steel remains a critical enabler of electrification, renewable energy, and data center infrastructure. At the same time, growing investment in infrastructure and defense is supporting steel demand across many of our core markets. India is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing major steel markets in the world, with demand expected to approximately double over the next decade.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

ArcelorMittal has the products, people, capabilities, and geographical footprint to capture the opportunities these long-term trends create. For several years now, we have been consistently funding our strategic growth projects. These high-return projects are expected to contribute new incremental EBITDA of $1.8 billion from 2026 onwards, providing a clear pathway to structurally higher earnings and returns through the cycle. What differentiates ArcelorMittal is not only the quality of our growth opportunities, but also the breadth of future options available to us. We have unique exposure to India, where we have a long-term plan to grow capacity to 40 million tons per annum. In Brazil, we are evaluating downstream growth opportunities that leverage our low-cost asset base and long slab position to create higher value products. In the U.S., we are advancing studies for potential second EAF at Calvert, building on the successful execution of the first EAF.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

In Liberia, our extensive resource base and established infrastructure provide further capital-efficient growth optionality. As with our capital allocation decisions, growth investments must compete for capital and ensure that we are on course to deliver increasing returns on capital employed. My final point is that we have all the elements in place to continue creating shareholders value. The steel industry continues to evolve. Markets are becoming increasingly regionalized, supported by trade measures that promote domestic production. This aligns strongly with ArcelorMittal's business model of local production to serve local demand. We believe this regionalization trend should support higher sustainable profitability and returns across the cycle.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

At the same time, supporting policy momentum, the earnings contribution from our strategic growth projects, the future growth options that we are developing, and our exposure to powerful long-term demand trends are key drivers of higher earnings, returns on capital and free cash flow over time. Achieving our cost of capital is not a goal, but a minimum expectation for our business. We are allocating capital to projects that can generate returns well in excess of our cost of capital. The value we create for shareholders is then amplified via our consistent capital return policy, progressively growing the base dividend as earnings power of the business grows and consistent share buybacks. As I conclude, the message is simple. I would like everyone to take away three key points from today's call. First, we are seeing positive momentum across the business.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Our results are improving, market conditions are strengthening, and the benefits of the recent policy change support the outlook. Second, we have a differentiated portfolio of strategic growth opportunities together with future growth options that provides a clear pathway to structurally higher earnings and returns through the cycle. Third, we clearly have the right elements in place to create a long-term shareholder value. We are focused on improving returns on capital, value creating organic growth, maintaining a strong investment grade balance sheet, and delivering strong shareholder returns. With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to our Q&A.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Thank you, Genuino. We have a queue of questions in front of us, and the first one we will take from Alain at Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alain.

[Alain Gabriel, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you for taking my question. Hi, Genuino. A couple of questions from my side. First, on Europe, can you talk a bit more about your outlook for that division? You've announced the restart of Fos-sur-Mer. Your order books appear to inflect. How should we expect your pricing dynamic to evolve into Q3 and Q4 after taking into account the lags, and should we expect any incremental ramp-up costs that can hold your margins back for Europe? That's my first question. Thanks.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. Thank you, Alain. First of all, I think what we are seeing in Europe, it's all very positive, right? If you look at our guidance for quarter three in terms of shipments being higher or flat to slightly higher than the second quarter, as you know, that's not the usual trend. That speaks for what we are seeing in terms of the order book. We are booking right now already for quarter four. It's all playing out very, very well, I would say, and that's the reason why we have brought back the furnaces, so we have three furnaces running. We will be running, actually, all of our furnaces in Europe from quarter three onwards. We are also seeing, which is also not what you would typically expect just before the summer breaks in Europe, right?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Typically, at this point of the year, you would see prices kind of drifting a little bit lower, and that's not what you see, right? Of course, I'm not going to comment on evolution of prices from here, but looking at the indexes right now, they are moving in the right direction. That's very good to see. Import should be lower as a result of TRQ. I would expect the company to continue to now regain market share from imports, as we talked before. When we think about the margins of the production that we're going to be bringing back, I think the message is same, Alain, that we talked about before. As you know, as we bring back this capacity, we benefit from the fixed cost absorption, right?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We don't really expect to be adding much in terms of fixed costs as we bring back the capacity. At the same time, you're going to have more carbon costs, right? You need to balance that. Overall, our expectation is that these tons should be even more profitable than what we have today.

[Alain Gabriel, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. That's very clear. The second question is around Section 232, which is in two parts. Firstly, the U.S. may roll out an on-shoring investment plan for aluminum, where companies become eligible to import aluminum at a reduced tariff if they are building new capacity in the U.S. Are you having similar conversations with policymakers in the U.S. to improve the economics of a potential second EAF at Calvert? That's one. Sticking with Section 232, there are talks about Mexico potentially adopting a Section 232 style tariff framework as part of a revamped USMCA. Essentially, this would push Section 232 to the Mexican border. How would this setup impact your Mexican business if it were to happen? Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Daniel, do you want to take this one?

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Yes. Thanks, Genuino. Thanks, Alain, for the question. I think starting obviously with North America, Section 232, interesting development with aluminum that you noted. Obviously, in the past couple of quarters, this subject has come up in our results conference calls. I think just to take a step back, I think it's clear that ArcelorMittal is very committed to our franchise in the U.S. and North America more broadly. We have a record of innovation. We have our global R&D resources. We have our leading customer service in terms of quality and delivery. We really have a tremendous amount to offer our customers in the U.S. The U.S. policy objective, I think, is very much around encouraging domestic melt and pour capacity. That's very much aligned with the investments that we have already been making at Calvert.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Genuino talked about the EAF at Calvert in his opening remarks. The first EAF, the existing project, that continues to ramp up very well. We expect full capacity to be achieved later in this second half of the year. To remind everybody, that's a state-of-the-art facility, first of its kind, capable of producing the most demanding exposed automotive grades. Similarly, our new electrical steels project at Calvert, that's going to be producing the most sophisticated non-grain-oriented steels, and that's progressing very much to plan. The second EAF, it's a very strong project. It would further increase our domestic U.S. melt and pour capacity. It would make Calvert less dependent on imported sources of slab. It's very consistent with that overall U.S. policy objective of producing steel domestically and having those robust supply chains.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Any potential savings from the policy would, I think, ultimately be determined by the Department of Commerce. Consideration would be given to the resources that are committed, the national security benefits of any commitment, and the commercially reasonable time period necessary to complete the project. None of that we can answer at this stage. I think what I can say at this stage is, and just referencing the opening remarks in the presentation, is that we are moving forward with the detailed engineering for the second EAF. We're incorporating the lessons learned from the first EAF project to optimize this. As and when we've got any updates, we will share those with you in due course. Then just on your second question, I think it almost answers itself. I think first of all, we have a strong business in North America.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

We're focused on producing locally for local demand. I think we've long advocated for a greater policy alignment between the countries of the USMCA and very much broadening out the Section 232 border to the whole region and really creating this steel fortress North America. Mexico continues to have relatively high import penetration compared to many of the other markets. Further improvements really are needed. I think obviously we can't confirm any of what you talked about in your question, but any move in that direction, we would be encouraging. We're really advocating for a greater regional alignment, helping to reduce tariff related costs across the North American business. Let's see what happens, but any progress there would clearly be a positive for our North American business.

[Alain Gabriel, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. I think we'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Ephrem at Citi. Hi, Ephrem.

[Ephrem Ravi, Analyst at Citi]

Hi. Two questions. Firstly, can you talk about the level of inventories you're seeing in Europe? The messaging from the steel industry was that if TRQ came on, the slightly higher level of inventories carried over from last year will mean volumes will not pick up immediately. Your guidance for 3Q suggests otherwise, with much better seasonal shipments in the third quarter. Is the inventory levels now significantly lower to enable that shipment increase? Secondly, both related, do the extension of free allowances to 2038 by the EU tweak any of your investment or decarbonization plans in Europe? Given the blast furnaces that you are bringing back on right now, do you have enough carbon allowances for it, or is it something that you will have to buy from the market? Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Okay, thanks Ephrem. Let me take your first question, and Daniel will comment on the ETS and the carbon cost. Inventories in Europe, Ephrem, I think what we saw during the quarter was pretty much what we were anticipating and we discussed during our first quarter. Imports were still elevated in the second quarter. However, when you look at on a half-year against half-year of last year, you see that it's relatively stable. As we also talked about in quarter one, we don't really see that inventories are so excessive in Europe. You can see that in our guidance. Perhaps that's because we are also more exposed to south, through France and Spain. As we know, that's the region that is going to be also replacing most of the imports, so a large part of the imports.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

When we look at our order books and we look how the engagement from customers, it's all developing nicely, I would say. We talked also about how prices are evolving, which typically when you have high inventories, you would not see that happening. That give us confidence to provide this guidance, and we feel good about it. Daniel, do you want to talk about carbon?

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, sure. On the topic of ETS, I think just to take a step back, first of all, I think it's clear that the Commission is now really finally recognizing the challenges facing industry in Europe and really taking concrete actions to support it. For steel, we've seen the new carbon border, the CBAM, that's been in place since the 1st of January. The new TRQ trade tool has been in place since the beginning of this month. These are very important developments, which are really reshaping the outlook for the steel industry in Europe. The ETS review, that's another important component of this. The current proposals really do represent a step in the right direction. It reflects this ongoing recognition and that decarbonization objectives do need to be balanced with industrial competitiveness.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

We see a number of positive elements, including the extension of the free allocation phase-out, the changes to the ETS cap that improve long-term availability of allowances, and greater support for industrial decarbonization through things like the Industrial Decarbonisation Bank. Our key concern does remain aligning rising carbon costs with the conditions needed for decarbonization at scale. We're going to continue to engage constructively on a framework that supports both decarbonization and maintains industrial competitiveness. Then on your last point, just in terms of incremental carbon costs, I think Genuino referenced it in his earlier remark. I think it's something that we mentioned on the call last quarter as well. As we increase our production in Europe, you should anticipate that this will increase our carbon costs in Europe. That's something that you need to be balancing in your projections.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Genuino was very clear in saying that this will be more than outweighed by the operating leverage, the fixed cost absorption. Those new tons that we're bringing on are being incrementally more profitable than what we've just posted today.

[Ephrem Ravi, Analyst at Citi]

Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Ephrem. With that, we will move to the next question, which we will take from Reinhardt at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhardt.

[Reinhardt Van Der Walt, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hi there, Genuino and Daniel. Thanks for taking my question. First, I just want to ask about your slab network in the Western Hemisphere. To what extent do you have spare capacity in Brazil, and especially now with the Calvert EAF ramping up, how much capacity you think you have to be able to divert into Europe if the market maybe needs some extra tons?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Hi, Reinhardt. Look, we are running our facilities in Brazil today at full capacity. The flat business is running. All the furnaces are running. Of course, we have plenty of optionality to divert volumes, where we see the opportunities. Of course, the group will always have priority. As you know, we have high quality slabs coming not only from the same 3 million tons of slabs, we have also Tubarão also producing slabs.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We have something that I think is unique to ArcelorMittal, and we talked about it in the past that we will see finally what happens and the ability of other mills in Europe to take their market share of the lower imports. ArcelorMittal remain well-positioned here, if necessary, to bring slabs. We have more downstream capacity that we can utilize if we see that opportunity. Yeah. The group is, I would say, in a unique position here to capitalize on its footprint.

[Reinhardt Van Der Walt, Analyst at Bank of America]

That's very clear. Thank you, Genuino. Maybe just a question on your order book comments into 3Q. Can you give us a sense of how much of that stable to up or, I guess, seasonal outperformance is due to market share gains, and how much of that would you estimate is just end market activity being better than expected?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Well, clearly, the demand picture in Europe has not really changed much compared to what we discussed. The demand in Europe is stable. Which is good, because in the prior years, as we talked about as well, the real demand in Europe was declining. This year, our expectation is for the real demand to stabilize, which I would say it's encouraging. It's a good start. The demand picture is not really changing so much. Then it's a function of the reduced level of imports that we are expecting with TRQ. That's how we are seeing the evolution here.

[Reinhardt Van Der Walt, Analyst at Bank of America]

Understood. Thank you very much, Genuino. I'll hand it over.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. I think we'll take the next question now from Tristan at BNP Exane. Hi, Tristan.

[Tristan Gresser, Analyst at BNP Exane]

Yes. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the order book. Were you able to quantify it in Europe? It's up year-over-year, by how much? Is it double digit?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Tristan, look, I think our guidance is quite clear. If you look at our deck, our slides, we have provided the drop in shipments in 2025 and 2024, Q3 against Q2. You can see that it's mid to high single digit in terms of drop in shipments quarter-over-quarter, Q3 against Q2. The guidance is for stable or slightly higher. I think that's quite specific guidance, I would say. As I talked about also before, we are now really looking at Q4, we are in a good position, in a strong position here. Again, a very good level of engagement from customers. It's all developing, as I said, quite well.

[Tristan Gresser, Analyst at BNP Exane]

Okay. No, that's fair. Another question on Europe. Do you think there is a decent probability that the price setting ton for HRC in Europe could be the tariff paying imports? Do you think that there is going to be sufficient domestic capacity, especially in the near term? Also on the supply side, do you see a risk of seeing some idle facilities in Europe getting purchased by foreign slab producer and transform into re-rolling centers? Is that something that you would consider as a risk?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. Maybe I will start and then we'll add, Tristan. First part of your question, I think what we are still missing in Europe, to be honest, is the speak up in demand. As we were discussing, demand is now relatively flat, the real demand. If you look at the World Steel Association, they have a positive forecast for next year. We have all these programs announced in various countries that should support. We talked a little bit about the mega trends as well, electrification. I think we remain, in the medium to long term, optimistic that demand in Europe should start to move in the right direction as well. More recently, we have seen PMIs also moving in positive territory, which is encouraging. I think if you get to a scenario where demand improves, why not?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

It might be that actually imports, the import parity will establish the European prices. I think we are still some time. We have to see how the competition, how the other mills also bring capacity, what they can actually do. I think it's early days really to talk about this. One thing is for sure, as we bring capacity back and competition does the same, the marginal cost of production in Europe should rise, and that should, of course, support prices in Europe. Daniel, do you want to talk a little bit about the re-rollers and-

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Sure. I think it's clear that European policy is there to promote competitiveness of domestic capacity, domestic production. I think it's clear that the commission does not want to see capacity close. They want to see capacity remain competitive. They want the industry to continue to support employment, et cetera. In your scenario, I think it would reinforce further actions from the commission and putting slabs into the TRQ quota tool. I think that it's probably just a question of time before slabs become part of TRQ, just to make sure that that's not a long-term risk to steel production in Europe.

[Tristan Gresser, Analyst at BNP Exane]

All right. That's very clear. If I could just squeeze a quick one on China. I noticed you put China restructuring as a potential upside in the presentation. I don't think that was there before. Does that mean you've seen some positive sign or expect anything in the coming year? Am I just reading too much out of it?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Unfortunately, yes, Tristan. To be honest, we know, and we have discussed that. We know that it has to happen at some point in time. It's just not possible for us to say when and how. I think it's clear that eventually it will need to happen. You still have, as we know, half of the industry in China, at least burning cash. It's not something that we see is sustainable. When and how it happens is difficult to precise. That, of course, when it does, international prices would then normalize. That, of course, would support the industry, not only in Europe, but across the globe, for sure.

[Tristan Gresser, Analyst at BNP Exane]

Okay. Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Tristan. We'll move now to take the next question from Andrew at UBS. Hi, Andy.

[Andrew Jones, Analyst at UBS]

Hey, can you hear me okay?

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Yes. Thank you. How are you doing?

[Andrew Jones, Analyst at UBS]

Excellent. Great. I just wanted to follow up on, first of all, just on the CapEx projects that aren't included in the $1.8 billion long-term guidance. I am curious for what the timescale is in terms of steps to implementation. It sounds like Essam is already an approved study, as you put in the presentation. I am kind of curious where we go from here, construction timeline, how certain is this, and maybe just expand out some of those other projects. Then I have a follow-up on the Decarbon Europe.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Sure, Andrew. Andrew, as you know, we have been investing in a good list of projects now for a couple of years. We are starting to see the benefits. Already in 2025, 2026, we have $700 million out of the $1.8 billion that we should be capturing this year. We captured already $300 million in H1. We have another $400 million that we believe we should be capturing in H2, and there is more to come. What we are trying to do is to show all opportunities and unique opportunities that we have when we look at across our portfolio. I think, again, it is quite unique to ArcelorMittal, given our presence in these five regions that are very attractive from a demand point of view. You see us looking at more investments in Brazil, downstream, which makes a lot of sense for us.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We have a low-cost base in Brazil. We are long slabs. The country is short value-added products. It is just something that makes a lot of sense for us, and we are advancing the engineering work. The same is true for Calvert, the second EAF. We are also progressing there with the engineering work. Of course, we have India, where our ambition is very significant. Thinking about the CapEx, for sure, we are going to be completing this year a number of projects. Liberia is a good example. The expansion of Serra Azul is another example. We are going to be also completing the EAF in U.S. We are creating space within our envelope to add some of these other projects.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

As and when we complete the engineering work and we feel we have a good solution, then we will take that to our board, and we will announce more details, timelines, and contributions, et cetera. I think you should take that this company will continue to grow, and that is something that differentiates us as well.

[Andrew Jones, Analyst at UBS]

Yeah. Okay. That's clear. On the EAF projects, obviously you've advanced on Dunkirk. Given all the support you've received from the EU around the TRQ and obviously now the ETS phase out and things like that, I'm curious how you're seeing those other potential decarb projects that were talked about a few years ago. What comes next? Is it Ghent? Is it Germany? DRI, you've kind of said that that doesn't really make sense in the next few years in the past. With all this support, is DRI potentially becoming more viable? Given the supply chain insecurity, do you need to build DRI capacity in Europe in the future rather than relying on the merchant HBI market when obviously there's growing EAF supply in the European market?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. Well, Andrew, to be honest, right now, it's not really part of our plans. You saw what we are doing in Dunkirk. We have already, within the group, DRI capacity. As we know, we still have to see the conditions for DRI in Europe to develop. We know where gas prices are. We know what is the availability of hydrogen. What is the price. Today it's very hard to see. We don't see it yet, that the conditions for DRI are present. It's challenging. We have the only DRI operating in Europe, in Hamburg, and we know how difficult it is. In terms of sequencing, at this point in time, the focus is Dunkir. Of course, we have done already.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

When you think about all the changes that we discussed, that Daniel talked about, the ETS, I think we are in a strong position because we have already done a lot of work on all of these projects. As we learn more from this commission, the changes to the ETS, I think we're going to be in a position to move. What is important, and the message remains the same, that we will invest when it makes economic sense, when we can earn a decent return on our capital. Otherwise, as I talked about in my opening remarks, there is a competition in this group for capital. We will fund the projects that can deliver the highest returns, and that's what we will continue to do.

[Andrew Jones, Analyst at UBS]

Yeah. No, that sounds good. All right. Thanks very much for the response.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Andy. We'll move now to take a question from Boris at Kepler Cheuvreux. Hi, Boris.

[Boris Bourdet, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I would start with the usual bridge into Q3. If you could share the dynamics you see for Q3, not only for Europe, but the other regions. That's the first question.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Daniel, do you want to walk them through the bridge?

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Sure. I think it's a very simple bridge. Genuino talked about the positive outlook, the positive outlook for the third quarter, the positive outlook for the second half as a whole. It's a very simple bridge. We expect all steel segments to improve sequentially into the third quarter. The key themes for the group as a whole being higher steel shipments. We would expect higher average selling prices to be reflected in the third quarter as well. There will be some additional costs. Genuino referred to it in previous remarks, particularly higher carbon costs as our European production increases. Those are the key themes for the third quarter. I think for the second half as a whole, we obviously would expect that momentum to hopefully continue into the fourth quarter.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Normally, fourth quarter is a better quarter from a volume standpoint than the third quarter. In the previous questions, we've been talking about momentum on pricing and spreads right now, which would obviously come through to results with appropriate lags. The other thing just to highlight, I think in terms of the outlook, not part of your question, but we have reiterated again the prospect of positive free cash flow this year. Not just this year, but beyond. I think that should be quite clear in your modeling. We've got working capital unwind higher profitability in the second half of the year, and that combination should be quite powerful from a free cash flow perspective.

[Boris Bourdet, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

Very clear. Thank you. My second question is on Europe. There are two questions in one. Where do you see the potential for margins in Europe? We are now sitting at 98, as you mentioned. It's quite a jump from 70 in Q1. What kind of potential do you see? More generally in Europe now that you have better backdrop, more supportive backdrop than trade defense, do you see scope for consolidation? Is it now a place you would look differently in the current setup?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Boris. Let me take this one. Thank you. Look, in terms of where margins should, what is the potential for margins? I'm very encouraged when I look at, if you look at our profitability in Q2, Europe, very close to $100 already. Right? As we talked about, we have not yet seen the benefits of the TRQ. Clearly there is potential for us to do better. I will not, of course, volunteer a number. I think we have not yet seen the potential.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Which is very encouraging. To your second point, in terms of consolidation in Europe, I think we have always seen the benefits of consolidation. As we know, Europe is more fragmented than some other regions. It could benefit from consolidation. ArcelorMittal, as you know, we are already very large. Our focus is on running our assets. We have a lot of opportunities. We have some of the best assets in Europe. That's our focus to run, earn our cost of capital. That's the focus that we have set for ourselves.

[Boris Bourdet, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

Very clear. Thank you very much.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Boris. We'll move now to take a question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have one on the mining business. I guess you're holding onto the 18 million tons guidance for Liberia. There's a slide in your pack as well, but it doesn't have the numbers. Can you maybe help us with a shipment number for Liberia for the first half so that we can gauge roughly what you're still expecting in the second? That's my first question.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. Sure, Bastian. When you look at the Liberia project, I think it's progressing well. We have two of the lines of the concentrator that are running. We are ramping up the second, getting ready to start the third one. We continue to guide for 18 million tons, as per plan. The production in Liberia is up very significantly already. You can see that year on year. In the second half, we need to ship about 10 million tons to get to this 18 million.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We feel that we can achieve that. We have the port, the rail, the infrastructure, it's all in place. As we talked about in our MD&A, in the earnings release, because of the very heavy rainy season that we experienced, we had some delays in shipments, which we expect to catch up in quarter three. All in all, I would expect to see already an improvement in shipments in Q3.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Got you. Thank you. Then just coming back briefly to, I guess, some of the earlier questions, particularly with regards to the re-rolling capacity and the implications of slabs coming in. Slabs are obviously not yet part of these safeguards. Is there a number you have in mind how much capacity European re-rollers could potentially ramp up here? Is there a number you would put out there as to how much of the supply gap could be filled by re-rollers until potential safeguards on slabs may potentially be introduced as well?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. Bastian, to be honest, it's not something that we are overly concerned. I think in Europe today, the re-rollers, they have been there forever, right? They have established supply chains. They are operating today, right? I believe they will continue to operate. I would not worry so much about that at this point.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, fair enough. Do you have a number in mind as to how much capacity these guys really can ramp up?

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

No, I'm not going to comment on that, Bastian.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. I think just to compliment Genuino, just to reiterate what you said. I think we really don't see a lot of spare rolling capacity in Europe that can be ramped up, I think. The earlier question was very different because that was a question about potentially closing primary capacity in Europe and replacing that with imported slabs to then be re-rolled.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

That would be a very different scenario and clearly something that we would expect the European Commission to not want to see and to take action to prevent that from happening. That's why I was referencing slab becoming potentially part of the tariff rate quota tool. That's not a near-term risk or dynamic. The near-term opportunity for additional rolling in Europe, we really just don't see that as being fundamental to the near-term supply demand outlook.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, great. Very clear. Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Bastian. I think we'll move now to take our last question, which will be from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole.

[Cole Hathorn, Analyst at Jefferies]

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like to follow up on two of the new slides that you've got on the deck. The first is on your sustainable solutions business. You're talking about $750 million of EBITDA medium term. I'd just like a little bit more color, what gives you confidence in delivering that number? Because $750 million is more than some smaller steel companies are delivering at the moment. Just some quantification of that. Then following up on that is the comment that you made about using steel on your slide 19 effectively for the transformation. How do you see steel playing its role? Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Thank you, Cole. Thank you for your question on sustainable solutions. It's something that we are very excited about. I will address this one and I will ask Daniel to talk about your second question. As you can see, we are making good progress with our sustainable solution division, right? We are already running the run rate, as you can see, it's already in excess of $500 million. We are executing projects that will add to profitability of this division. The renewables, the investments that we are making in India. We are developing another gigawatt of capacity there, renewable, which is very good in terms of returns, IRR. It allows us to have these very stable levels of EBITDA and free cash flow, as we are enjoying with the first project that we completed in India.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Second part of the growth story there is our sustainable construction business. That's panels, profiles that we are developing. We have already a strong base in Europe. We are now expanding the footprint into India, into U.S. In Brazil, we have recently acquired a company producing the same products in Brazil. We are developing greenfields, as we can see now, a sustainable section in our earnings release, a greenfield also in U.S. We're starting this business there, something that we have a lot of expertise. Those are the drivers, really, of the increase in this division in the near term. Daniel, do you want to talk about the second part?

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Genuino. Yeah, thanks for the question as well, Cole, because this is obviously a very topical theme, electrification. It's one of the clear mega trends, and it's a mega trend that I think people are getting quite excited about. Within that excitement, I think the role that steel will play in this is not being recognized. When we think about the build-out of renewables, the build-out of transmission, it just won't be achieved without steel. Steel is very much fundamental to this theme of electrification. We've taken the opportunity to try and put some numbers around it. This is page 19 of the slide deck that we published this morning. It's simply just looking at the projections through 2035 for electricity generation in the various different regions.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

We've applied some standardized assumptions, external assumptions rather than our own assumptions, around the steel intensity of that generation. Once you put it all together, it's a very significant number. Almost 300 million tons of steel would be required to achieve these electrification goals through 2035, ex-China. It's an important theme. We have good exposure to it. If you look at our product portfolio, we produce all of the steels that are going to be required to achieve these goals. Think about magnetics and our other products, which are well suited to solar. Think about heavy plate for wind, electrical steels. This is going to have a key role to play, and we're producing that, or going to be producing that in the key regions. Then, of course, the overall transmission. We believe that the demand is going to be interesting.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

We have the product portfolio to be applied to it, yeah, we just took the opportunity to put some numbers around it.

[Cole Hathorn, Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you. Then just the one division that wasn't mentioned on the quarter-on-quarter was the India and JVs. Just wondering if you could give any color on that into the third quarter and fourth quarter. Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Well, thank you for asking, Cole. As you can see, the performance in Q2 was strong. We had record level of shipments, run rate at about 8 million tons. Our expectation is for the divisions to continue to do well in quarter three and quarter four. The focus is, of course, other than continue to run the existing operations on our projects. As you know, we are doubling the capacity there. That is also progressing. I think demand is strong. We continue to see a very strong level of demand. Prices have moved up. They have recovered from low levels that we saw at the beginning of the year. I think we see good developments there. We should continue to see strong performance in the second half as well.

[Cole Hathorn, Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Cole. Genuino, that was our last question. I'll hand back to you for any closing remarks.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Thank you, Daniel. Thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reflect on the key message from today's discussion. First, we are seeing positive momentum across the business, with results expected to improve across all segments. Early indicators in Europe are already encouraging, giving us confidence as we enter the second half of 2026, with momentum continuing to build into 2027. Second, we have a differentiated portfolio of strategic growth opportunities and future growth options. We are well-positioned to benefit from some of the most important changes that are reshaping the global steel industry. This, in turn, provides a clear pathway to structurally high earnings and returns through the cycle. Finally, we have all the elements in place to continue growing earnings, returns on capital, and free cash flow. Structural demand drivers in a more regionalized steel industry creates opportunity.

[Genuino Christino, Group CFO at ArcelorMittal]

ArcelorMittal's disciplined capital allocation and strategy execution while maintaining a solid investment-grade balance sheet provides a strong foundation for future value creation. With that, I will close today's call, and if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Daniel and his team. Thank you again for joining us, and I look forward to speak with you soon. Enjoy the summer and please stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

Participants

Executives

• Daniel Fairclough, VP of Corporate Finance and Head of Investor Relations
• Genuino Christino, Group CFO

Analysts

• Alain Gabriel, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
• Ephrem Ravi, Analyst at Citi
• Reinhardt Van Der Walt, Analyst at Bank of America
• Tristan Gresser, Analyst at BNP Exane
• Andrew Jones, Analyst at UBS
• Boris Bourdet, Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux
• Bastian Synagowitz, Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Cole Hathorn, Analyst at Jefferies