Carpenter Technology Q4 2026 Earnings Report

Carpenter Technology EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $3.23
• Consensus EPS: $3.09
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.14
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.21

Carpenter Technology Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $679.70 million
• Expected Revenue: $863.33 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$183.63 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +12.60%

Carpenter Technology Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2026
• Date: 7/30/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Carpenter Technology (NYSE:CRS) engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. The company offers specialty alloys, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels, and tool steels, as well as additives, and metal powders and parts. It serves to aerospace, defense, medical, transportation, energy, industrial, and consumer markets. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Carpenter Technology Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Record profitability continued: Fourth-quarter operating income rose 37% year over year to $206.9 million, while SAO operating margin reached a record 37.8%. Full-year adjusted operating income increased 34% to $702 million.
• Positive Sentiment: Management issued strong growth targets: Fiscal 2027 operating income is expected at $850 million–$880 million, up approximately 21%–25%, with fiscal 2029 targeted at $1.2 billion–$1.3 billion. Management characterized the FY2027 outlook as a potential floor and said it expects to outperform its targets.
• Positive Sentiment: Aerospace demand is accelerating: Fourth-quarter aerospace and defense sales increased 17% year over year, with strong demand from engines, fasteners, structural customers, and defense programs. Boeing and Airbus production increases, large aircraft backlogs, and customer requests for additional material support expectations for further volume growth.
• Positive Sentiment: Cash generation and shareholder returns remain strong: Carpenter generated $362.3 million of adjusted free cash flow in FY2026, repurchased $179.1 million of shares, paid $40.3 million in dividends, and ended the quarter with $892.4 million of liquidity and net debt below one times EBITDA.
• Neutral Sentiment: The Brownfield capacity expansion remains on budget and on schedule for completion by early FY2028, but production will ramp gradually. Management expects the project to be operating-income accretive in FY2028 and to contribute approximately $150 million of incremental operating income by FY2030; the exact contribution depends on product qualifications, mix, and pricing.

Presentation

[Operator]

To the Carpenter Technology Q4 FY 2026 earnings presentation. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to John Huyette, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology earnings conference call for the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter ended June 30, 2026. This call is also being broadcast over the internet along with presentation slides.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

For those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay in slide movement. Speakers on the call today are Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Tim Lain, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Carpenter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2025, Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended September 30, 2025, December 31, 2025, and March 31, 2026, and the exhibits attached to those filings.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

Please also note that in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discuss the sales or revenue, that reference excludes surcharge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income, excluding special items, and sales, excluding surcharge. I will now turn the call over to Tony.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you, John. Good morning to everyone. Before I begin this morning, I want to take a moment to share my condolences on behalf of the Carpenter Technology family to Brian Malloy's family. His sudden passing last week was a tragic loss and a shock to all of us.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Brian joined the company in 2015, and through various leadership roles, was instrumental in advancing Carpenter Technology's strategic priorities over the last decade. On July 1, Brian became CEO, a role he was truly excited to take on.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Brian will be forever remembered here as a trusted and respected leader for his commitment to our values, employees, and the company's long-term success. Brian was a friend, and he will be sorely missed. As you know from our press release, I was reappointed by the board of directors to the role of CEO.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

To be clear, this is not an interim assignment, we are not launching an external search for a new CEO. The plan is for me to remain as the CEO for an indefinite period of time. Onto the business of the earnings call. Let's turn to slide four and a review of our safety performance.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We start every quarterly earnings presentation with our safety slide, reinforcing that a zero injury workplace is our number 1 value and our ultimate goal. We believe that superior, sustainable operational performance is only possible in a company culture that places the safety of their employees as an unquestionable number one priority. We ended fiscal year 2026 with a total case incident rate of 1.4.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We believe we are one of the safest manufacturing companies in the world, we will only be satisfied with a zero injury workplace, a target that we firmly believe is possible. Let's turn to slide five for an overview of our fourth quarter performance.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Carpenter Technology just delivered another record quarter, reflecting the continued strong operational execution and accelerating demand across our high-value markets. In the fourth quarter, we generated $206.9 million in operating income, exceeding our previous record set in the third quarter by 11%.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

The profitability was driven by the SAO segment, which delivered an adjusted operating margin of 37.8% in the quarter, another new record for the business. This margin compares to 35.6% in the prior quarter and 30.5% a year ago.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

As a result of the expanding margins, the SAO segment reported $229.7 million in operating income, an increase of 10% sequentially and another all-time record for the segment and above the expectation we had set for the segment. Importantly, these record earnings translated directly into another strong cash flow generation quarter.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

In the fourth quarter, we generated $240.1 million in cash from operating activities and $155 million of adjusted free cash flow, we continued returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and repurchase programs, executing $45.2 million of repurchases in the quarter, raising the total to $179.1 million for all of fiscal year 2026.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Turning to slide six and a closer look at fourth quarter sales and market conditions. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, sales increased in a strengthening demand environment year-over-year and sequentially.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Starting with the aerospace and defense end-use market, sales were up 3% sequentially and up 17% year-over-year. Our sales growth reflects accelerating activity across the aerospace supply chain as OEMs continue to push toward higher build rates.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Boeing and Airbus continue to increase production against a backlog of approximately 16,000 aircraft, while engine manufacturers remain focused on securing supply to support both increasing production rates and elevated MRO demand.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

On their earnings call Tuesday, Boeing stated that they expect to achieve rate 47 per month for the 737 this summer, they discussed their plans to increase to rate 52 per month in the near term.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We see this reflected in the sequential increase in bookings for the aerospace and defense end-use market. We heard this confidence from customers at the Farnborough International Airshow just last week.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Our engine customers report strong demand, with many commenting that demand is less of a concern than the capacity needed to meet that demand. Our fastener customers are ramping significantly and discussing with us areas where they need more material sooner. Across the board, our structural customers are expecting demand to accelerate in the coming quarters.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

For an increasing number of structural customers, we are already experiencing accelerated ordering with extending lead times. At the same time, some structural customers remain cautious in their ordering patterns, but at the same time acknowledging that they are ordering below expected demand rates.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We agree, and as that caution fades and ordering aligns with expected production rates, we expect demand to accelerate even further. In the defense sub-market, we continue to see strong demand and urgent requests for material across multiple platforms.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Moving on to the medical end-use market, our sales were up 5% sequentially and down 30% compared to the prior year fourth quarter. This is the first quarter in this fiscal year that medical end-use market sales were up sequentially. Our medical end-use market continues to have solid fundamentals, and we see ongoing improvement in demand across orthopedics, dental, and cardiology.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

This quarter, energy end-use market sales flipped versus the large sequential increase last quarter, down 22% sequentially and 12% year-over-year. The demand from our IGT customers, primarily driven by the growing energy needs of data centers, remains strong.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

As we have said many times, quarterly sales for IGT material will fluctuate due to order timing and production scheduling. Finally, we saw a significant uptick in the sales for industrial and consumer end-use market, up 19% sequentially and 22% year-over-year.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

This was primarily driven by increasing demand from the semiconductor industry, where our materials are used in critical components in the semiconductor production process. We continue to see strong investment in fabrication facilities, semiconductor equipment, and supporting infrastructure.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Customer confidence has improved, demand remains robust, and our position is strengthening in this market. In summary, we continue to operate in an accelerating demand environment across our high-value end-use markets.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We believe that rate of growth will increase in the near term, specifically in the aerospace and defense end-use markets, as airframers continue to increase build rates. Combined with our differentiated capabilities and capacity, this positions Carpenter Technology for meaningful growth, both in the near term and over the long term. Now, I will turn it over to Tim for the financial summary.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone. I'll start on the income statement summary on slide eight. Starting at the top, sales excluding surcharge increased 9% year-over-year on 22% higher volume. Sequentially, sales were up 4% on 11% higher volume.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

The improving productivity, product mix, and pricing are evident in our gross profit, which increased to $268.9 million in the current quarter, up 26% from the same quarter last year and up 7% sequentially. Selling general and administrative or SG&A expenses were $62 million in the fourth quarter, roughly flat year-over-year and down $3.3 million sequentially.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

The SG&A line includes corporate costs, which were $28.6 million. This is up $1.3 million sequentially and up $1.7 million from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. For the upcoming first quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect corporate costs to be roughly in line with our recent fourth quarter.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Operating income was $206.9 million in the current quarter, which is 37% higher than our fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 and up 11% from our recent third quarter. As Tony mentioned earlier, this represents another record quarterly operating income result, breaking the previous record set just last quarter.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Moving on to our effective tax rate, which was 20.7% in the current quarter. This quarter's effective tax rate was lower than anticipated, primarily due to discrete tax benefits associated with certain equity awards. Finally, the earnings per diluted share was $3.23 for the quarter.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Now turning to more detail on each of the segments, starting with our SAO segment. Net sales excluding surcharge for the fourth quarter were $607.4 million. Compared to the same quarter last year, sales were up 11% on 23% higher volume. Sequentially, sales were up 4% on 11% higher volume.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

The net sales increase that is outpaced by the volume increase translates to a lower reported ratio of net sales excluding surcharge per pound. In other words, a lower average base price per pound, both sequentially and year-over-year. In the past, some have mistakenly interpreted a lower aggregated average base price as an indication of declining prices in the portfolio.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

For those of you newer to the story, it's important to remember that the average base price per pound for the SAO segment in any given quarter is highly dependent on the mix of products.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

As in previous quarters, the decline in average selling price in the recent quarter is due to the higher proportion of lower priced products in the mix of materials that we shipped in the quarter. Importantly, the lower priced products often come with comparable average profit margins.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

That is clearly evident in SAO's adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter, which increased for the 18th consecutive quarter to a new record level of 37.8%. The continued margin expansion reflects the SAO team's ability to actively manage our production schedules, increase productivity at key work centers, manage costs, and execute thoughtful planned maintenance activities.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

As we have said many times before, quarterly operating margins may be impacted by a number of short-term factors, most notably product mix. That said, clearly operating margins remain on an upward trajectory, supported by our core drivers, including productivity, mix, and pricing. As a result of the higher sales and expanding margin, SAO reported operating income of $229.7 million in the fourth quarter, a new all-time high for the segment.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

As we look ahead to our first quarter of fiscal year 2027, we anticipate SAO will generate operating income in the range of $218 million-$222 million. This implies an impressive 28%-30% increase from SAO's first quarter of fiscal year 2026. The outlook considers the elevated preventative maintenance levels that traditionally occur in our first fiscal quarter.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

The preventative maintenance, while reducing the amount of operating time in the quarter, is required to keep our assets healthy and running effectively over the long term. As in previous years, we will offset a portion of the loss in operating time with improved productivity and portfolio optimization.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Now turning to slide 10 and our PEP segment results. Net sales excluding surcharge in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 were $98.2 million, up 1% year-over-year and 8% sequentially.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

We saw sales increase across most of our end use markets sequentially, most notably our titanium products in the medical end use market. As Tony mentioned earlier, our medical end use market continues to have solid fundamentals, and we are continuing to see improving demand. In addition, our additive business continues to deliver year-over-year and sequential sales growth driven by aerospace and defense demand.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

PEP reported operating income of $7.1 million in the current quarter, compared with $6.7 million in the third quarter of FY 2026 and $11.7 million in the same quarter a year ago. We currently anticipate the PEP segment's operating income for the upcoming first quarter to be between $6 million and $7 million. Before we move to cash flow, I want to pull together the pieces that make up our outlook for operating income for the first quarter of FY 2027.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

We anticipate total operating income of $195 million to $200 million. This includes SAO $218 million to $222 million, PEP at $6 million to $7 million, and corporate costs of approximately $29 million. Our guidance for the first quarter of FY 2027 implies delivering operating income that would be 27%-30% higher than last year's first fiscal quarter, which was then a record best first quarter.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Turning to the next slide to talk about our cash generation and capital allocation priorities. In addition to the strong earnings performance, we've generated meaningful cash flows driven by higher earnings and ongoing efforts to manage working capital closely, particularly inventory.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

In FY 2026, we generated $605 million of cash from operating activities, a 37% increase over FY 2025. The cash generated from operations more than supports the $242.7 million in capital spending in FY 2026.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

The capital spend includes the Brownfield capacity expansion project. As anticipated, capital spending ramped up in our recent fourth quarter, totaling $85.1 million as activities around the capacity expansion project accelerated. A brief update on this project. The Brownfield capacity expansion remains on budget and on schedule to be completed by the start of FY 2028.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

The construction phase is well underway, with key equipment being delivered and on-site assembly and installation progressing. The project remains focused on not only completing construction and installation of equipment, but also preparing for a smooth startup of operations.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

With those details in mind, we generated $362.3 million in adjusted free cash flow in FY 2026, ahead of what we had anticipated. We continue to execute our balanced capital philosophy that includes investing cash in attractive and accretive growth projects like the Brownfield capacity expansion and returning cash to shareholders.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

To that end, we continue to execute against our repurchase authorization and repurchased $179.1 million of shares in FY 2026. This brings the total to $281 million spent to date against the $400 million authorization that we announced in July of 2024. In addition to the buyback program, we also continued to fund a recurring and longstanding quarterly dividend.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Finally, our ability to deploy capital is also supported by our healthy liquidity and strong balance sheet. As of the most recent quarter end, our total liquidity was $892.4 million, including $393.3 million of cash and $499.1 million of available borrowings under our credit facility.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Our credit metrics remain very strong, with our net debt to EBITDA ratio remaining well below one times. Altogether, we believe our strong balance sheet and outlook for significant cash generation positions us well to fund continued growth and deliver significant shareholder returns.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Before I turn the call back to Tony, I want to highlight that, as we have done in the past, we have included a slide in the appendix of this presentation that includes selected guidance to help model our anticipated fiscal year 2027 results. With that, I will turn the call to Tony.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Carpenter Technology just delivered another significant record-breaking year of profitability. For fiscal year 2026, we generated $702 million in adjusted operating income, a 34% increase over fiscal year 2025, and more than five times fiscal year 2023.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

It is clearly a testament to our focus on execution, backed by a strong market position, broad solutions portfolio, and unique capabilities, that we were able to deliver another record-breaking year.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

In addition, with the record earnings and disciplined working capital management, we generated $362.3 million in adjusted free cash flow, including investment in the Brownfield expansion project, and we continued to return cash to shareholders. Over the course of the fiscal year, we executed $179.1 million in share repurchases in addition to $40.3 million in dividends. We believe our current record results are far from our peak.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

The same dynamics that drove our success in fiscal year 2026 are only strengthening as we look ahead over the next several years. With that, let's turn to the next slide for our outlook. At the outset, I want to emphasize that our approach to target setting remains the same. We believe in setting targets that we have a high level of confidence we can achieve based on what we can see today.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

At the same time, our team always focuses on identifying opportunities to exceed the commitments we make. With that in mind, let's start with the near term. As Tim detailed, we are projecting a strong start to fiscal year 2027, with operating income projected between $195 million and $200 million. For the full fiscal year 2027, we expect between $850 million and $880 million of operating income.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

That represents approximately 21%-25% growth over our record fiscal year 2026 performance and continues what we believe is one of the strongest earnings growth trajectories within our industry. Importantly, this outlook is supported by anticipated strengthening demand across our most important end-use markets.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Looking beyond fiscal year 2027, we expect our strong growth momentum to continue. Our fiscal year 2029 operating income target of approximately $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion reflects both the continued strength of the projected underlying demand environment and the contribution from our Brownfield expansion project.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Notably, the fiscal year 2029 target represents more than a 20% three-year CAGR on our record fiscal year 2026 operating income, a number that we believe sets us apart from our industry peers.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We do not believe fiscal year 2029 represents the peak of our earnings power, as the Brownfield project will still be ramping production while the underlying demand environment continues to strengthen. Let's talk about cash generation. Over the last several years, we have demonstrated the ability to convert earnings into cash. For fiscal year 2027, we anticipate between $400 million and $430 million of adjusted free cash flow.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Note that level of cash generation includes the remaining investment in our Brownfield expansion project that we expect to be completed in early fiscal year 2028. Looking beyond fiscal year 2027, we expect cash generation to continue increasing as earnings expand and the Brownfield project contributes to profitability. That brings me to capital allocation. I think it's important to clearly state that our balanced capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

That is, we are focused on maintaining a balance between investing for growth and returning cash to shareholders. First, we will continue investing in the business. Second, we remain committed to returning capital directly to shareholders. We have a long-standing dividend that reflects the strength and consistency of our cash generation.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

In addition, to complement the quarterly dividend, we continue to execute against our share repurchase program. The strength of our earnings growth, cash generation, and balance sheet gives us the ability to invest for future growth while simultaneously returning meaningful capital to shareholders.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

When you step back and look at the outlook we've provided today, we believe it represents one of the strongest growth profiles in our industry. As we have done in the past, we will work not only to meet these impressive targets, but exceed them.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Let's take a step back and summarize this great story. Fiscal year 2026 was another year of record financial performance and demonstrates the strength of our strategy, a strong market position, and our team's ability to execute. We delivered record quarterly profits, with fourth quarter operating income increasing 37% year-over-year, driving operating income to a record $702 million for the full fiscal year.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Within our Specialty Alloys Operations segment, adjusted operating margins continued to expand and reached 37.8%, highlighting the power of our business and the benefits of disciplined execution.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We also converted those earnings into meaningful cash generation, producing more than $360 million of adjusted free cash flow during the year, including funding our Brownfield capacity expansion. Importantly, we continued returning capital to shareholders, executing approximately $179 million in share repurchases while maintaining our longstanding dividend.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

As I just detailed, our earnings outlook continues to strengthen, supported by the same drivers that have fueled our success over the last several years, productivity improvements, product mix optimization, and favorable pricing actions. For fiscal year 2027, we expect operating income to be substantially higher than our record fiscal year 2026 performance while continuing to generate significant cash flow.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Looking beyond fiscal year 2027, our Brownfield capacity expansion project will begin contributing in fiscal year 2028, providing an additional accelerator to our earnings growth profile.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

By fiscal year 2029, we expect operating income to reach approximately $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion. That's a 20%+ CAGR over three years, a rate that we believe exceeds most in the industry. Just as importantly, we do not view fiscal year 2029 as the peak of our earnings power.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

The market dynamics we've discussed today are expected to continue to strengthen, the Brownfield expansion will still be in the early stages of its contribution. Finally, we believe Carpenter Technology offers an attractive long-term investment opportunity. We are operating in an accelerating demand environment across many of the most attractive end-use markets in the world.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Our portfolio consists of highly specialized solutions, serving critical applications where performance matters, qualification cycles are long, and the barriers to entry are significant. We have built a unique collection of manufacturing assets, process technologies, metallurgical expertise, and customer relationships that we believe are extraordinarily difficult to replicate.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

In addition, our strong balance sheet and growing cash flow generation provide us with the flexibility to maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation. We will continue investing in profitable growth opportunities, including our Brownfield expansion project.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We will continue supporting our longstanding dividend, we will continue returning excess capital to shareholders through our share repurchase program. When you put all those elements together, the investment proposition is straightforward. We are delivering record results today.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We have a clear path to significant earnings growth in the years ahead, we remain committed to creating meaningful, long-term value for shareholders through disciplined execution, continuous improvement, and profitable growth. Thank you for your time, your interest, and your continued confidence in Carpenter Technology.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again.

[Operator]

We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question from the line of Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Hi, good morning. Tim, can you share what the FY 2029 EBIT guide assumes with respect to the Brownfields contribution to earnings?

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Scott, good morning. Let me talk a little bit about, just reaffirm some of the stuff we've already said about the Brownfield project. In our prepared remarks, we said it's on track, on schedule, on budget. It comes online early fiscal 2028, and then through 2028, we expect to ramp up production of those newer assets.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

In 2028, we expect it to be OI incremental. That's a big deal for a project like that. The next milestone we set when we announced the project was in 2030, it would contribute roughly $150 million of incremental OI. 2029, you referenced the EBIT guide.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

We gave a 2029 number. It won't quite be linear between that first year and the $150 million in 2030. We'd expect it probably actually to be a little bit more weighted towards the 2030 number, that's all baked into the current guide.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Is the $150 million in 2030 still the right number, or is it biased higher given how pricing has trended since you introduced that guide?

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Since we announced, Scott, I would say it's fair to say that we are more confident in those numbers, and we would expect could drive higher, I think for now we're going to keep the $150 out there for 2030.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. Tony or Tim, can you parse out the 23% SAO volume growth in the quarter by end market?

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, Scott. You can see that there was a lot of growth from a volume perspective in our industrial and consumer business sequentially. That leads to, okay, what I talked about on the call, this average price per pound.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

That's not necessarily a negative. That just means we ship more volume of some of the lower priced material, but it carries an overall attractive margin profile. That's why we saw the margin growth in SAO in the quarter.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. My last question is for Tony, the thing I'm just a bit confused by is the business has been accelerating EBIT growth in each of the last few quarters, the guide for the first quarter and for 2027 as a whole implies that this EBIT growth begins to moderate a bit. Still very strong, but moderates.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

I'm a bit confused by that because it seems like the A&D demand presumably is still very strong. The A&D volume growth should still be very strong, the pricing backdrop, it seems to me, is only getting better. Why would the EBIT growth moderate from here as opposed to accelerate in that backdrop?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah. Good morning, Scott. I appreciate your question. I don't necessarily disagree with you on that. I think from our standpoint, our goal is always to have guidance that's right out in front of us. I'll say this, if you want to take that guide and say that's the floor for FY 2027, you wouldn't get any pushback from me.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

All right. Thank you. I'll pass it along.

[Operator]

Your next question from the line of Gautam Khanna of TD Cowen. Gautam, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Hey, guys. My condolences to all of the people connected to Brian. That's a real tragedy.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah. Thank you very much for asking.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Of course, and we're very lucky to have you back in the seat, Tony, so thanks for doing it.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah. Thank you.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Wanted to ask a couple questions on the comment of OI accretive in 2028 and not being linear. Just to be clear, Tim, were you trying to say that it will be closer to the $150, not closer to the barely break even? Is that what you meant to say?

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

North of $75 or something?

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, not quite the midpoint between those two, but more towards the 150, yeah.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay. Cool.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

You know, Gautam.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

I wanted to ask.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

It gets difficult.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Yeah.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

If I can say, it gets difficult on that projection, right? Because you heard Scott earlier talk about, well, is the 150 now a bit dated? Of course, the pricing is higher, but as we run through qualifications as well, we're not 100% sure of the exact mix of those products. That's why we're a bit hesitant to just put on some type of higher price on those products.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We don't believe I should put a target out there that we hope to hit. We think we should put one out there that we have confidence in. That's why you see us maintaining that 150, because at this point in time, we just don't know 100% what the exact mix of products will be running across those assets.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

That's very helpful. Thank you. Maybe Tony, just as you thought about guidance, for 2027 and also for 2029, but for 2027 more immediately, what do you anticipate in terms of the contributors to that operating income growth, maybe in order of rank? Price, volume, productivity, mix. I guess productivity and volume are very related, but how would you rank order those? Is price the biggest driver? Is

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

I'll let you-

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yes

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

riff off of that.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, no, it's a good question, Gautam. Maybe I'll give you a direct answer and maybe a little commentary just on guidance in general. We talk about price, mix, volume. Probably the biggest, most significant input to FY 2027 is the build rate that Boeing and Airbus is going to hit, right? That's the biggest input that all of us have.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Now, we've made assumptions to that, but that's the biggest input. If you take a step back, certainly price is going to be a big driver for us. Also volume, as Tim talked about volume in some of the non-aerospace markets, volume is going to come and be a significant tailwind as well. It has to be. You're still at build rates that are much less to where they want to be. The comments I made in my prepared remarks, you still have some structural customers, Gautam.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

still not ordering at the levels that they acknowledge they should be ordering at. Let that sink in for a minute. I think it just magnifies any type of significant uptick in ordering and volume when that does hit, and that will be in this fiscal year for us, of course.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

I think all those are going to be major drivers. You know us well enough, you've covered us a long time. Productivity is always a big factor for us. We are never satisfied where we're at today. As you look at our plans for this fiscal year, there is a healthy dose of productivity actions that we have in there.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

That's helpful. Last one for me before I turn it over. Just if you could walk through kind of some of the sub-market order rates and maybe sales growth rates, engine fasteners.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, I'll do that.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Then I'll do the same for the other guys. Thank you.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, I'll do that. Maybe I just want to take a step back because I do want to come back to this guidance piece and what it should be, what it shouldn't be. Gautam, I think it's important to understand, like myself and my team, we all understand that everybody has a model and everybody has corresponding expectations. Of course, I would say the reaction to earnings guidance, you must consider the personality of the company that's giving that guidance. What do I mean by that?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Carpenter Technology provides guidance, not that we hope we can achieve. We believe in setting targets that we have a high level of confidence in and of what we can see today. Then immediately starting to say, what I have as far as plans in place, and then what I can do to overachieve them.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

You've covered us long enough to know that we are very disciplined from an operational standpoint, a commercial standpoint, we've proven quarter-over-quarter, the proof is in the numbers. I would argue those are the two factors are the reason that we've consistently overachieved what we put out there as targets.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

As I said to Scott, if you want to consider FY 2027 the floor, you won't get any pushback from me because we're already focused on overachieving that. I think before we get too far out ahead of ourselves, Gautam, I think you had mentioned this, let's just keep in mind what the guidance we just gave. That guidance we just gave is 25% higher than our record fiscal year 2026. As you noted in your note, probably the strongest earnings growth trajectories in the industry.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Through all this noise, I'm proud to say, we've got a team that's going to put their head down and we're going to deliver quarter-after-quarter. We're going to do it the right way. We're going to do it the sustainable way.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

I think that operational discipline paired with an aerospace demand environment that appears to be poised to expand significantly over the next couple of years, that should yield substantial shareholder value. I guess that was a long-winded way of saying, Gautam, the bottom line for me is I wouldn't bet against us.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Understood. Yeah, the sub-markets color, if you have it.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

I do. Just as a highlight, I'd say, hey, listen, from an overall aerospace standpoint, as you saw in our slide, up 3% sequentially, 17% year-over-year. That was the highest quarter all time for aerospace for us. That's an important point to make. If you look at FY 2026 in total, that was an all-time high.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

You did that while Boeing was working to regain its footing and Airbus wasn't where it wanted to be. It kind of pairs to what I just said from a volume standpoint, there's still a lot more to come there. Now, to your specific question, you've waited long enough. The sub-market details. Aero engines were up almost 30% year-over-year. It was down a bit sequentially, low single digits. That was on a sequential quarter before was a very strong one.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Even with that, it was the second highest in history. Another very strong aero engine sales quarter. I know you always ask about aerospace fasteners. They were up 10% sequentially, 12% year-over-year. If you take that bucket where it's almost, Gautam, non-fastener, non-engine, so that structural distribution bucket that we've talked specifically about those customers.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

That was up again significantly this quarter, up 25% quarter-over-quarter, 8% year-over-year. I know there was some maybe confusion last quarter about how does that all balance out. You've got aero engine was down slightly. Defense was also down sequentially about 10%. That's normal. That's related to the specific nature of this sub-market and how it's built on very program-specific. Hopefully, that helps you out.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Very much so. Thank you. Appreciate it, Tony.

[Operator]

Your next question from the line of David Strauss with Wells Fargo. David, your line is now open.

[David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Thanks. Good morning, My condolences as well on Brian's unfortunate passing.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you.

[David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Your aero and defense for you guys grew 15% extra charge in 2026. You mentioned 17% in Q4. Does that growth rate, you think, accelerate in 2027 relative to 2026?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, David, that's a good question. Of course, we see aerospace being meaningfully higher in FY 2027. As you well know, you've been around long enough. You know it has to be higher with the build rates that Boeing and Airbus wants to hit.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Is it exactly that same growth rate? I think you could argue that that would be the case. The reason I'm hesitating a bit, obviously, it depends on the success primarily of Boeing and when they can get to that next level and then the level after that.

[David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay. Would you think within that structural would outgrow engine? Based on your prior comments, it sounds like you're a bit just capacity constrained on the engine side until the brownfield comes online.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah. We've still got some room that we can work with, primarily from a productivity standpoint, the accomplishments we're making quarter-over-quarter. I think you could see a situation where the growth in structural will lead the pack only because it's been so depressed here recently, right?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

There is a big recovery that's needed. We've seen this many, many times, right? We saw it just a couple of years ago, when Boeing had the issue with Alaska Airlines. You had the strike. You saw the same thing happen. I think you're going to see structural. When that does turn the corner and you see that ordering pattern pick up, it's going to be significant.

[David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay. Last one, rather than focus on kind of the EBIT number for SAO, what's the right way to think about incremental margins from here or margin improvement? Last year, margins improved something like 600 basis points. Incrementals were close to 100%.

[David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

I know you've made it clear the guidance is very conservative for this year, it would imply, I think, that incrementals closer to like 50%. I'm just trying to think about given all the moving pieces here in terms of the price per pound that we calculate, all these various different things. What do you think about the incremental margin level for Specialty Alloy? That business, what it should look like from here?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

It's a good question. I can tell you now, this isn't the floor for us. We do believe that we've got opportunities to move higher. Now, it certainly gets tougher and tougher the higher you get, obviously. As you stated before, I'm really not going to start forecasting what quarterly operating margins are.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We believe there's a lot more growth for us to have going forward, especially some of the work we're doing around productivity is pretty significant. I think as we get a couple of quarters into FY 2027, we'll see how that lays out. We still expect very good performance from that standpoint.

[David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay. All right. Thanks very much.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you, sir.

[Operator]

Your next question from the line of Bennett Moore with JPMorgan. Bennett, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Bennett Moore, Analyst at JPMorgan]

This is to the team and Brian's family. I wanted to start with some of your commentary on the cautious ordering from the structural customers. Based on your conversations with those customers, what do you feel is really contributing to this? Or said another way, what are these customers looking for to move off the sidelines? Is it really just the next leg higher in Boeing's ramp, or is there other things in the market they're looking for?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

No, I think that's the main thing. By the way, good morning, Bennett, and thank you for your comments. That's the primary driver. They've had a history of maybe being burned in the past.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

A lot of it depends on the individual metrics of that company and what they grade themselves on, that they might be a little bit more cautious. There's not just one answer to that. Yes, I think as you see Boeing continue to improve as they are, I don't think that ordering pattern will be gradual.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

I think it will be when that time hits here in the next quarter or two, I think you'll see a significant uptick. If history is any indication of what's going to happen, you'll see that significant uptick.

[Bennett Moore, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Understood. Space has become a growing area of interest. I'm interested in your latest thoughts on the opportunity there, and if you could remind us how your exposure is split between SAO, PEP, and I guess within SAO, to what extent do these products compete for time on the asset with engine alloys?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, it's a good question, because we do have both SAO and PEP selling to the space market. On the PEP side is primarily our additives business, and that's quite strong right now. On the SAO side, yes, that space could potentially compete with aero engine alloys. There's some similarities there. Not 100%. That tonnage right now is very low compared to engines. That could compete on similar assets.

[Bennett Moore, Analyst at JPMorgan]

My last one real quick is, in the past you guys guided to, I believe, a 90% free cash flow conversion for the prior FY 2027 free cash flow guide. I'm wondering if this is still applicable, and also, Tim, how we should think about CapEx cadence through the year. Thank you.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, Bennett. Good morning. In 2026, and the number we provided for 2027, there are growth investments in the reported adjusted free cash flow. When you look at those and, say, take the growth investments out, we've demonstrated that we can hit that 85%-90% type conversion ratio, both in 2026, so we demonstrated that, and then what we've projected for 2027 in the guidance we provided.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Going forward, as the large growth project right now wraps up and we bring that online in 2028, on a go-forward basis, we'd expect those kinds of conversion rates. We still continue to maintain our balanced capital allocation. Given the growth in profitability that we've laid out and our focus on managing working capital, we think that's more than attainable in the future too.

[Bennett Moore, Analyst at JPMorgan]

The CapEx cadence, please?

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Oh, yeah. Sorry. CapEx cadence. Given that the Brownfield project is pretty much in full swing, a lot of activity there, a lot going on, I would expect that it'd be fairly ratable throughout the year.

[Bennett Moore, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Great. Thanks so much. Best of luck.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan with JonesTrading. Josh, your line is open.

[Josh Sullivan, Analyst at JonesTrading]

Hey, good morning. Yeah, I want to extend thoughts to Brian's family and Carpenter. He's a great asset, and importantly, a good guy.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you.

[Josh Sullivan, Analyst at JonesTrading]

Tony, just wanted a clarifying point on the guide for 2029. Does that guidance assume those cautious customers have come back and are pulling at anticipated build rates at that point? I know it's out in 2029, but just curious what contribution you're thinking about from those more cautious players at that point.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah, I think they'll get more aggressive quite a bit earlier than FY 2029. The answer is yes.

[Josh Sullivan, Analyst at JonesTrading]

Okay. Just on Dynamet, as Aerostructures picks up, then with medical looking a bit better, what does the cadence and the Dynamet margin profile look like between now and 2029?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Well, that's a good question. Obviously, Dynamet, we see it as a strategic asset. At the same time, it's a very small portion of our overall operating income. SAO is 95% plus of our segment operating income. Again, we see it as very strategic, but it's very small.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

At the same time, I see Dynamet over the next two to five years being a bigger contribution to overall operating income. We flipped Dynamet. It used to be probably 60% aerospace. It's probably flipped and become more of a medical business than aerospace.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

That 60/40 has split. Again, relatively small now and not a big driver to our overall guidance for FY 2027. To be honest, really not that much of a driver to FY 2027, although we have ticked that up going forward. I think there's a lot of opportunity there, Josh, for us to take that even to the next level.

[Josh Sullivan, Analyst at JonesTrading]

Okay. Just any update on Athens? To your point on the call, Carpenter's always great at overachieving and efficiency and productivity. Are you finding any potentially upside production opportunities or ancillary expansion opportunities as you put Athens together? The Brownfield effort.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Well, Tony said this earlier, I think we think there's always opportunity. I also say this project that we're working on, the Brownfield project, is a pretty complex project. We're managing that project. Within that project, we're always finding, hey, there's pluses or minuses. We could potentially change some design here or there.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Given the complexity of it, Josh, those aren't necessarily big opportunities. As we finalize and we're call it 12 months away now from bringing that online, I think there's going to be some things that we'll find along the way. We'll talk about those as we go. It's such a complex project, and it's such a big deal for us that we don't really want to veer too far off from getting that project done, if that makes sense.

[Josh Sullivan, Analyst at JonesTrading]

No, that's fair. That's why you guys are so good. I'll leave it there, thank you for the time.

[Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO at Carpenter Technology]

Thanks, Josh.

[Operator]

Your next question from the line of Andre Madrid with BTIG. Andre, your line is now open.

[Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG]

Yep. Good morning. Thanks for my question, and condolences to everyone.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah. Thank you, Andre.

[Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG]

Could you maybe just talk a bit more about what's implied in your FY 2029 outlook at a sub-market level? Just looking at engines, fasteners, medical, and then maybe even further to the extent that you can aftermarket and OE.

[Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG]

I know that it gets a little grayer at that point. Just really trying to understand the moving pieces to the 2029 numbers, especially given that concerns these days are mounting around accelerating retirements and whatnot.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Well, I don't have any concerns at all about the mix between OEM and MRO or aftermarket in FY 2029. We've talked about that extensively. There's been other people in the industry, experts talk about that in the industry. There is no concern about that. I think it's premature for me to talk about in detail what's in the FY 2029 number.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

You should assume that we see all of our markets increasing going forward in FY 2029, because we have all of these. We're in the right markets, the high value-add markets. All the macro demand signals are pointing very positive.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

All of our markets we expect to be higher in FY 2029. Remember, with aerospace and medical IGT, you're well over 80% of our revenue, and all of those are projected to be very strong going into FY 2029 and beyond. We have the same viewpoint.

[Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG]

Got it. I guess, looking, again, still at FY 2029, you've said it's at the peak of earnings. Is that on a margin or a nominal earning basis or both? Maybe additionally, if it is on a margin, what do you truly view as maybe the high watermark for margins?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Oh, Andre. You thought you might get me at a weak moment, and I'd tell you what the margin is in our model. I would say to the first part of your question, it's both. As we look past FY 2029, we usually go out five years for us internally. We see growth. That's why we're able to say we're confident we see growth beyond FY 2029.

[Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG]

Got it. I guess just longer term capital deployment. You're almost at $900 million in total liquidity now. I can only imagine by FY 2029. I'm not going to ask specifics, but obviously, the cash on hand will continue to grow as well. I'm curious, is M&A on the table at all? If so, what does the process look like? I'm just curious to see if maybe beyond organic investments and growth you guys are looking inorganically.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Well, of course. You would guess that a company like us, we get all of the notices whenever something is "available", and we do our research on all of those. I'll never say no. When you have such attractive organic projects or possible projects in front of you, it's hard to rank an M&A opportunity higher than that.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

When I can control my own destiny and do what I'm doing internally, the risk profile is much better for me. That's not a no, but it's just a tough one to make that work. I don't want to buy something just to buy something. I think the important point here is what you said earlier. You see a significant amount of cash generation going forward for FY 2029. If you look at that $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion, that's three years out.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Someone would ask, "Do you think that number could be higher?" Of course, it could. It very easily could be higher based on what the build rates are. You put that type of cash conversion number on that's a significant amount of cash. That's the reason why we repeated three or four times in this call that we're going to have a balanced capital allocation process.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

There are still growth investments we can make in our core markets, maybe some of our smaller markets as well at a much lower level, that doesn't disrupt the supply-demand balance that we can work on.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

It tells you that we're going to be committed to returning cash to shareholders. You should expect that at any given time, we'll probably have some type of share repurchase program in place. We're always going to have the dividend.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

It's a good situation to be in, to have that amount of cash that you believe you're going to be able to generate, and then have the very strong philosophy to be very balanced in how you take care of that cash.

[Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG]

Got it. That's very helpful, Tony. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you, sir.

[Operator]

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality.

[Operator]

If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Your next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna of TD Cowen. Gautam, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Yeah. Thank you. Just a quick couple follow-ups. One, I wanted to ask if lead times have changed much at all on engine or other products.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Sorry, go ahead.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

No, you go ahead.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yeah. Lead times are relatively consistent quarter-over-quarter. There's some specific products that you see that pushing out. Again, we cap that, as you know. We're not taking orders two years out. I would see that that's going to accelerate quite a bit here over the next quarter, for sure over the rest of this calendar year.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, great. Tony, I know in the past sometimes you've given color on Long-Term Agreements that come up for renewal and the magnitude of price hikes associated with those. I was wondering over the next year or two, are there a number of LTAs that come up for renewal again? Any way to frame that for us? % of business on the LTA side that gets repriced again between now and 2029?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

It's an excellent question, Gautam. I'll disappoint you and say I won't give you the exact % of what comes up, but I will say there are a couple very significant contracts that will come up for renewal over the next two years, and I will go as far as saying there's a large one that we're currently working on now. Yes, there's still opportunity there.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

Just one more point on that too, Gautam, is in addition to those bigger contracts, we've talked about this before, always a bit of a churn. There's always contracts coming up for renewal.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Sure.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

There's no magical, "They all roll over on this date." There is a constant refresh.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

I guess one of the things I was curious about as a follow-up to that is way back in the day, I remember Carpenter sometimes entered into 10-year contracts. Are any of those still in the book of business or are these that are coming up stuff that has been already renewed since COVID? You wouldn't see this massive reprice due to inflation that has to get caught up. Do you still have any of those 10-year ones on the books that were pre-COVID that are coming up?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

I'll give you a one-word answer. Yes.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, good. That's helpful. Thank you very much.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

We already have some that are turning over as well because of the shorter durations. We have some that we're working on now that's the second time. If you start the clock in 2021 or 2022, let's say 2022, Gautam, we have some that we're doing the second turn of that one.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Is there any I'm sorry I'm asking too many questions, but I am curious. In the LTA book, is there any way to dimensionalize the percentage of those that are coming up for renewal that are pre-COVID terms, if you will, that are still to be renewed versus ones that are coming around for their second renewal?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

I would say it's not significant, right? It's not significant. We've moved most of those out.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

The reason I said a one-word answer yes because I was hoping you wouldn't ask for more follow-up. I should have expected that from you.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Of course.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

That yes, there's still one, maybe two that's pre-COVID.

[Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Thanks, guys. I appreciate you taking more time with me. Thanks.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yes, thank you. We appreciate you as well.

[Operator]

Your next question from the line of Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank. Scott, your line is now open.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Just to follow up on that, Tony, can you share how your share position has changed or not changed on newer LTAs, particularly with the large engine manufacturers? Not asking on any specific customer, but just on balance across the recent LTAs you've signed. How has your market share trended, and to what extent does it even matter if you're sold out?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

What you just said at the end is the most important comment. I will tell you this, that every contract in the aerospace side that we're working on, they ask for more and more material. Not less.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. Your share of that material is generally holding in?

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Well, I'm talking about our share, right?

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

usually the contractor, some percent of their needs, they are wanting that percentage to be higher and higher with each contract.

[Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Understood. Thank you.

[Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO at Carpenter Technology]

Yep, you're welcome.

[Operator]

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to John Huyette for closing remarks.

[John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations at Carpenter Technology]

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining us today for our fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter conference call. Have a great rest of your day.

[Operator]

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• John Huyette, VP of Investor Relations
• Tony Thene, Chairman, President, and CEO
• Tim Lain, Senior VP and CFO

Analysts

• Scott Deuschle, Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Gautam Khanna, Analyst at TD Cowen
• David Strauss, Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Bennett Moore, Analyst at JPMorgan
• Josh Sullivan, Analyst at JonesTrading
• Andre Madrid, Analyst at BTIG