Dollar Tree Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 27, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Strong Q2 performance: Net sales rose 7% to $4.9 billion, comparable sales increased 3.7%, traffic turned positive at 0.4%, and adjusted EPS reached $2.70, above the company’s outlook.
  • Positive Sentiment: Underlying business momentum improved: Management cited broad-based category strength, better assortments, cleaner and better-stocked stores, favorable shrink, and store-standard improvements, with stores below internal benchmarks declining to roughly one-third from about one-half last October.
  • Positive Sentiment: Outlook was raised: Dollar Tree now expects fiscal 2026 sales of $20.5 billion-$20.7 billion, comparable sales growth of 3%-4%, and adjusted EPS of $7.70-$8.05, including an estimated $0.60 net tariff-refund benefit.
  • Neutral Sentiment: The company received approximately $383 million in tariff refunds and plans to reinvest about $210 million in pricing, marketing, store conditions, operations, and a $40 million community contribution; management said it is not assuming a specific near-term return on these investments.
  • Negative Sentiment: Second-half margin pressure remains: Higher fuel-driven freight costs, broad-based merchandise inflation, a shift toward lower-margin consumables, tariff-refund reinvestments, and uncertainty around helium supply are expected to weigh on results; Q3 adjusted EPS is guided to $0.80-$0.95, including a roughly $0.50 reinvestment impact.
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Earnings Conference Call
Dollar Tree Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Dollar Tree Q2 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may be placed into the question queue at any time by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We ask that you please ask one question and one follow-up, then return to the queue. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Daniel Delrosario, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Daniel, please go ahead.

Daniel Delrosario
Daniel Delrosario
SVP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Dollar Tree

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Dollar Tree's second quarter fiscal 2026 results. With me today are Dollar Tree's CEO, Mike Creedon, and CFO, Stewart Glendinning. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the remarks that we will make today about the company's expectations, plans, and future prospects are considered forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements.

Daniel Delrosario
Daniel Delrosario
SVP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Dollar Tree

For information on the risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results, please see the Risk Factors, Business, and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation section in our annual report on Form 10-K filed on March 16, 2026, our most recent press release and Form 8-K, and other filings with the SEC. We caution against reliance on any forward-looking statements made today, and we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. Also during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in today's earnings release, available on the IR section of our website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for GAAP results. Unless otherwise stated, we will refer to our financial results on a non-GAAP basis.

Daniel Delrosario
Daniel Delrosario
SVP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Dollar Tree

Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all discussions today refer to our results from continuing operations, and all comparisons discussed today for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 are against the same period a year ago. Please note that a supplemental slide deck outlining selected operating metrics is available on the IR section of our website. Following our prepared remarks, Mike and Stewart will take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by recognizing the more than 150,000 associates across Dollar Tree whose commitment to our customers drives everything we do. They're creating a more relevant shopping experience through a better assortment, better-run stores, more consistent execution, and a customer-first mindset that was reflected in our results this quarter. The second quarter represented another period of progress for Dollar Tree. Improved execution across the business drove financial results above the high end of our outlook range. We're building a stronger business by investing and strengthening the value, convenience, and discovery we provide our customers, and the quarter's results reflect those efforts. The Dollar Tree team delivered robust top and bottom-line results. Net sales growth increased 7% to $4.9 billion. Comp store sales growth increased 3.7%, exceeding our expectations. Customer traffic was positive, 0.4%, while average ticket increased 3.3%.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Diluted earnings per share were $2.70. That includes $1.31 from the combined net impact of tariff refunds, reinvestments, and certain duties on aluminum pans and paper plates. Beyond these discrete impacts, the underlying business continues to strengthen. We are driving a better assortment in more and better-run stores and speaking to our customers in ways we never have before. While it's still early, the customer response and performance we're seeing gives us confidence in these initiatives and in the long-term opportunity ahead. Improving the fundamentals of a nearly 9,500 small-box retail business takes time. It starts with getting the basic blocking and tackling right. We are running cleaner, brighter, and better-stocked stores. We're encouraged that those everyday operational improvements are becoming more visible in both our customer metrics and financial results. We're pleased with our performance this quarter.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

We delivered some of our most compelling comp results in several years, with positive traffic earlier than we expected and strong comp growth on top of the 6.5% comp we delivered in the second quarter last year. That performance is a strong indication that the strategies we've put in place are gaining traction and that we're building real momentum in the business. Last year, we outlined strategies for re-accelerating traffic and top-line growth. The sequential traffic improvement helped drive our best two-year comp stack since 2023. We're also encouraged by traffic trends that strengthened on both a one-year and two-year basis as we moved throughout the quarter. We believe those trends speak to the underlying momentum in the business and the progress we are making in driving more consistent, sustainable top-line growth.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

We achieved this performance by staying focused on the fundamentals and executing against the priorities we outlined earlier this year. I want to remind you of a few of those priorities and the progress we're making against them. First, we leaned into those categories and price points where customers are responding most positively. We are enhancing our assortment accordingly so that it is broader and appeals to a wider spectrum of income levels. It's the combination of a compelling opening price point, deep value, greater choice, trusted brands, and new categories that makes the Dollar Tree value proposition so powerful, and that brings our customers back to the store. Multi-price penetration increased approximately 400 basis points year over year to 17% of total sales. We are bringing more excitement, discovery, relevance, and choice to the shopping experience while maintaining the value that has always defined Dollar Tree.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

When you combine a more relevant assortment with a cleaner, better-run store, the customer's response is even greater. That is reflected in the strengthening traffic trends we saw during the quarter and gives us confidence that the actions we are taking are resonating with shoppers. Second, we continued strengthening our marketing capabilities and customer outreach. We doubled down on our value message through our 40th anniversary celebration, reinforcing what has made Dollar Tree special for four decades: value, convenience, and discovery, while showcasing how the brand is evolving to offer customers even more choice, relevance, and that thrill of the hunt. We are bringing the Dollar Tree value proposition to life in new ways and giving customers more reasons to visit our stores more often. Third, we remain focused on operational execution.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

We continued reinforcing our G.O.L.D. standards and partnering with our field teams to deliver a more consistent customer experience across the fleet. Over the past year, we've made measurable progress in elevating the shopping experience across our stores. At Investor Day last October, we shared that approximately half of our stores were in the opportunity for improvement category, meaning that they fell below our standards. Today, that number is about one-third of the fleet, reflecting the significant work our operators have done to improve execution, store conditions, and consistency. But we're not satisfied with that progress. As our stores improve, we are continuing to raise the bar and make our standards more rigorous. We're seeing that improvement reflected not only in our internal measures, but also in improving customer sentiment around the shopping experience.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

There is still more work to do, but we are holding ourselves to a higher standard and building a more consistent experience across the fleet. While we still have opportunities to improve stores that remain below our standards, we believe the larger value creation opportunity is in sustaining the gains we've made and continuing to raise the level of execution across the fleet. The next phase is about making those improvements durable and repeatable. We are embedding stronger operating disciplines across the organization so that better execution becomes the standard, not the exception. Over time, we believe that will translate into a more productive store base, a better and more consistent customer experience, and stronger financial performance. We strengthened key areas including in-stock levels, shopability, store recovery, and store level planning.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

When stores are well run, they're easier to shop, better for our associates and customers, and more productive for the business. The same operating disciplines that create a better shopping experience also improve inventory control, merchandise protection, and compliance with our standards. This shows up in our shrink statistics. Shrink was favorable during the quarter and contributed to our improvement and profitability. Finally, we continued to improve the shopping experience through targeted store refreshes and renovations designed to make our stores cleaner, brighter, and easier to shop. These updates help ensure the shopping environment better reflects the strength of the Dollar Tree brand. While it is still early and we are continuing to evaluate the results and refine our approach, we see an attractive opportunity to strengthen the existing fleet and improve the customer experience over time. Let's turn now to the macro. The consumer environment remains dynamic.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Customers continue managing household budgets carefully, shopping with purpose, and prioritizing value and affordability. Our data shows we grew sales across all income cohorts. Households we serve were up nicely year over year with gains skewing to the middle and higher income households. Comp strength was broad-based across the assortment with personal care and toys notable outperformers. Discretionary performed well and consumables delivered exceptional comp growth. A couple of points are worth highlighting. First, the inflationary backdrop continues to pressure all household budgets, particularly for lower income consumers. As our customers look for ways to stretch their dollars, they are increasingly turning to Dollar Tree for everyday essentials at compelling opening price points and pack sizes that help them manage their budgets. At the same time, our value and convenience and the breadth of our assortment is resonating across all income cohorts.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Second, we were pleased with discretionary performance despite pockets of helium shortages across our store fleet, which created a modest headwind during the quarter. We estimate helium-related in-stock challenges reduced total sales by approximately $15 million, or about 30 basis points of comp. We continue to work closely with our vendors to understand the expected recovery of supply. Against that backdrop, the performance of discretionary reinforces our confidence in the broader strength we are seeing across the assortment. Let me turn to tariffs and the tariff refunds we received during the quarter. We received approximately $383 million, giving us a meaningful opportunity to reinvest in the business and further strengthen our value proposition for our customers. We are putting those funds to work in areas where we believe they can have the greatest and most lasting impact.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

We are focusing those dollars on targeted pricing strategies, marketing, store operations, and store conditions, areas that can benefit our customers today while strengthening the business for the long term. Additionally, we are closely monitoring the competitive environment and our relative values in the marketplace. Dollar Tree is committed to delivering outstanding value, convenience, and discovery at all times for our customers. Stepping back, we are pleased with our second quarter performance. Comp sales exceeded the high end of our outlook. Traffic improved, our assortment gained traction, store execution strengthened, and our teams delivered better results across our supply chain. We believe our investments in merchandising, pricing, marketing, and store execution have strengthened customer relationships and improved the long-term earnings power of the business.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Across these areas, we remain focused on delivering what we believe matters most to customers, exceptional value, greater convenience, and the sense of discovery that has always differentiated Dollar Tree. Those priorities continue to guide our merchandising, pricing, and operational decisions, and we believe they position us well to deepen customer loyalty. We are investing our tariff proceeds in a way that is consistent with that philosophy. As we look ahead, our priorities remain unchanged. Better serve and engage with our customers, execute more consistently, allocate capital with discipline, and build a stronger Dollar Tree position to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long term. We are engaging with and learning from our customers in new ways and using those insights to inform how we evolve the business. We are encouraged by the progress we have made, but we also recognize there is more work ahead.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

In closing, we are navigating a highly uncertain macro environment. As we said in the past, Dollar Tree is built for times like this. Our strategies are unlocking a better assortment and better run stores while engaging with our customers in more relevant and compelling ways. We look forward to building on our strong operating momentum in the second half of the year. Finally, I am excited to share that as we mark Dollar Tree's 40th anniversary, we are committing $40 million through our Dollar Tree Impact Fund to support local organizations that make a meaningful difference in people's lives. Reinvesting our tariff refunds in these communities will help expand access to essentials, create opportunities, and strengthen the communities we serve. With that, I will turn the call over to Stewart to discuss the financial results and outlook in more detail.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we saw continued improvement in the underlying financial performance of the business. Second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share was $2.70, of which $1.31 was attributable to the combined impact of tariff refunds, tariff refund reinvestments, and offsetting certain duties. Adjusted EPS is well ahead of our outlook range. Before reviewing our financial results further, I would like to provide an overview of the tariff refunds. Given the impact of tariff refunds and our related reinvestments on the P&L, we think it is important to provide additional context on what we know today, recognizing the timing and magnitude of these items could impact our reported results. During the second quarter, we received $383 million of tariff refund proceeds. The benefit to gross profit and other income was $369 million and $14 million respectively.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Additionally, gross profit was negatively impacted by $13 million of certain duties. In the quarter, we reinvested $37 million of those proceeds, including $22 million in cost of sales and $15 million in SG&A. As Mike described earlier, these investments were targeted at discrete customer-facing and operational initiatives, such as our 40th anniversary celebration, marketing, and store conditions, all of which are designed to enhance value, convenience, and discovery for our customers. Now, let me walk you through the second quarter financial details and then discuss our updated outlook. Net sales increased 7% to $4.9 billion, driven by a 3.7% increase in comparable store sales and a 3.3% contribution from net new store growth. Comps were driven by a 3.3% increase in average ticket on the back of last year's pricing actions and higher multi-price penetration. Traffic increased 0.4%, a sequential improvement relative to the Q1 trend.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

By category, consumables delivered a 5.8% comp, while discretionary delivered 1.6%. As Mike mentioned, category performance was broad-based, and we overcame an estimated $15 million sales headwind from supply constraints in helium. Gross margin expanded 850 basis points to 42.9% and included a 680 basis point benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds, reinvestments, and certain duties. Gross margin expansion was driven by tariff refunds, lower tariff rates, favorable shrink results, and occupancy leverage, partially offset by reinvestments primarily related to our 40th anniversary celebration, certain duties, and a mix to lower-margin consumables. As Mike mentioned, our shrink performance remained favorable during the quarter and reflects adjustments to the overall enterprise-wide results from our most recent counts. Moving down the P&L. Total SG&A, inclusive of TSA income, levered 50 basis points and included a 30 basis point impact from tariff refund reinvestments.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

The improvement in total SG&A rate, inclusive of TSA income, was primarily driven by payroll, partially offset by higher marketing and depreciation costs. Adjusted operating margin expanded 890 basis points to 14.1% and included a 650 basis point net benefit related to tariff refunds, reinvestments, and certain duties. Below the operating line, net interest expense was slightly favorable, and the effective tax rate was in line with our expectations. Turning to the balance sheet. Inventory declined 9% versus the prior year, while sales increased 7%, resulting in a favorable inventory-to-sales spread. We continue to manage inventory tightly, which supports fresher assortments for our customers, working capital efficiency, and stronger free cash flow generation. We ended the quarter with $1.06 billion in cash and no commercial paper outstanding. We generated $922 million in cash from operations and invested $246 million in capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $675 million.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

During the quarter, we repurchased 5.6 million shares for $605 million. Looking back over the last 12 months, we have reduced our share count by approximately 8% and returned over $1.8 billion to investors through share repurchases. As you look ahead, I would like to walk you through our outlook for the remainder of the year. There are a number of moving parts which are important to understand as you look at the business going forward. These include the tariff refunds and their partial reinvestment, the ongoing tariffs following the recent rate adjustments, and the impact of ongoing fuel costs. Let me share the current assumptions and expected impact on the business. As we shared early in the call, the full year will include $383 million of tariff refunds received in Q2. We are not assuming additional refunds. Offsetting these refunds, we currently anticipate reinvestment of approximately $210 million.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

As it relates to tariff rates, on our Q1 call, I shared that we expected the tariff rates to return to their previous levels. The newly established rates have moved higher but are now lower than what we had assumed. With respect to fuel, the outlook for fuel rates is elevated relative to when we last spoke in May and therefore an incremental headwind. Turning to our updated outlook for the year. We expect net sales in the range of $20.5 billion-$20.7 billion, reflecting comparable sales growth of 3%-4%. We expect adjusted corporate SG&A of $515 million-$535 million, including our $40 million charitable contribution. We now expect TSA income of $65 million or $5 million lower than we previously assumed. This is primarily the result of the timing of various TSAs rolling off.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

With respect to net interest expense, we now expect $70 million or $15 million lower than we previously assumed. This reflects a higher average cash balance and higher interest income. Given the second quarter performance, updated tariff regime, and net tariff refund benefit, updated TSA income, and net interest expense assumption, we now expect adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $7.70-$8.05, including an approximately $0.60 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds. Please note this outlook incorporates an outstanding share count of 191 million shares, which reflects share repurchases through today's date. Turning to the third quarter, we expect net sales in the range of $5 billion-$5.1 billion, reflecting comparable store sales growth of 3%-4%.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Adjusted diluted EPS are expected to be in the range of $0.80-$0.95, including a negative impact of approximately $0.50 related to tariff refund reinvestments. In closing, we delivered a strong second quarter and continued to execute against our strategic priorities. Our team's focus, operational discipline, and improving business performance position us well for the balance of the year as we work to generate consistent, profitable growth and create long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Mike.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Stewart. As we step back from the quarter, what gives us confidence is not any single metric or one-time event. It's that we're seeing progress across every area of the business. Customer engagement is improving, merchandising is becoming more agile, operational execution continues to strengthen, and the investments we've made over the past year are beginning to reinforce one another. While we recognize that there's still work ahead, we believe Dollar Tree is becoming a stronger, more competitive retailer with a greater ability to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long term. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to be placed into question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. As a reminder, we ask you please ask one question, one follow-up, then return to the queue. Our first question today is coming from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan. Your line is now live.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Analyst at JPMorgan

Thanks, and congrats on a nice quarter.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Matt.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Analyst at JPMorgan

Mike, can you elaborate on the cadence of the comp trend you saw in the quarter? Traffic turned positive a quarter earlier than your plan three months ago. Can you talk to drivers of that outperformance and impact from the 40th anniversary $1 price points? Lastly, can you share where your comp stands quarter to date today?

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Sure, Matt. Thanks. First of all, let me start by saying the team did a fantastic job in Q2. If we rewind the clock to the beginning of the year, we had the right strategy given the setup, and we were confident traffic would turn positive much quicker than it did with Break the Dollar. What we saw in Q2 is proof point that a better assortment and better run stores while talking to our customers in ways we never have before really drives the business. Traffic was the headline in Q2. The comp strengthened as the quarter progressed, and traffic improved sequentially and ultimately turned positive. The most encouraging aspect of the performance was that it wasn't driven by any one category or one event.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

We saw broad-based improvement across the business, and that gives us a ton of confidence in the strength of the underlying trend and the underlying business. As I mentioned in my script, not only did we see traffic trends get stronger by month, the two-year traffic trend also strengthened. Relative to our previous expectations of positive traffic in the back half, we're running about a quarter early. When I step back, I really like what I see. I like that the strategies we've laid out are working. On the 40th anniversary dollar price points, I think it's important to know that these are really small in scale. For those of you, and I know you do shop our stores, it's a handful of rotating SKUs and end caps. When we look at the data, we definitely think the 40th brought some excitement, some newness.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

There's a halo that goes with that, but wasn't really a key driver of the comp. On quarter to date trends, I don't typically comment on that, but what I would say is that as we put our outlook together, we incorporate everything we know today, and I'm really encouraged by the momentum we continue to see in the business. The team will stay focused on execution and delivering value, making sure we're convenient with great checkout, and that thrill of the hunt discovery that Dollar Tree is known for.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great. Stewart, a lot of moving parts on margins this quarter. Excluding the net tariff impact, can you walk through what drove the underlying earnings beat relative to your outlook that you shared back in May?

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Matt. Yeah, look, lots of moving parts. There's a great deal of complexity. We're going to try to make that simple. Look, the short answer to the question here is that ignoring the net tariffs, the benefit of those tariffs, we sold more than we expected, and we did that at better margins. So that's the good news. On sales, the 3.7% comp was above the high end of the Q2 outlook, and it drove additional gross margin dollars, a positive. But the more meaningful driver of our performance was in our margin delivery. And relative to, if you look back at our Q2 outlook, we had three main areas of gross margin favorability: shrink, freight, and fixed costs. On shrink, as we highlight in the prepared remarks, we continue to run better stores, and that's showing up in favorable inventory counts.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Shrink was much better than last year and even better than we expected. Shrink also, by the way, benefited from a cumulative adjustment to the reserve, which provided a benefit in the quarter. And just to help with that, the split here is about two-thirds from the inventory results and about one-third from the reserve adjustment. Freight was modestly better than we assumed, and that was mainly because we had better than expected fuel rates. But the higher sales comp actually allowed us to drive leverage on our fixed costs, which included occupancy and distribution costs. And on SG&A, since we generated a higher comp, we also generated higher fixed cost leverage on that SG&A. So we had better sales, we had better gross margin, and we had better operating margin.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

I want to point out also that the share count did not have any meaningful impact on the results that I have just spoken to.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great color. Best of luck.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Seth Sigman from Barclays. Your line is now live.

Seth Sigman
Seth Sigman
Analyst at Barclays

Great, good morning, everyone. Nice quarter. It looks like the new high end of your EPS outlook, the $8.05 or I guess it is $7.45, ex the net tariff refunds. I just want to make sure that is right. Then related to that, your prior outlook embedded a higher tariff rate versus the current 12.5% that you mentioned. Where is that upside from lower tariff rates? How is that flowing through? Thanks.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, good morning. Stewart here. A good question. First of all, you are correct. We did pass through the beat and the benefits of the lower share count in our outlook despite the current market volatility and inflation. If you strip out the net impact of the tariffs, which was $1.31 in the quarter, you get to $1.39 for underlying EPS in the second quarter. That, of course, is well ahead of the $1-$1.15 outlook.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

The way I calculate it is if you take the $0.24 beat at the high point, and I am using the high point because we shrunk the range, add about $0.11 of benefit to that $0.24 from the lower share count for the year, then add another $0.04 for the net benefit of lower TSA with the positive impact from lower interest expense, and you get to about a $0.39 benefit coming out of Q2. Since last quarter, the high point of our outlook was $7.10. You take that $0.39, add it to the $7.10, then you take the net full year benefit of $0.60 for tariffs, and you get right up against the high point of the EPS outlook. I know there is a lot in that, but that is how you do the math.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

More importantly, let me address just the tariffs. I will remind you that for the back part of the year, we had assumed a 20% tariff rate when we reported back in May. That is what the administration was telling us. As you know, the tariff rates now are lower, somewhere around 12.5%. So we get some benefit from that lower tariff rate in the back half of the year. But there are two offsetting factors in cost of sales which absorb that benefit. First, we are anticipating that the sales growth in the back half skews a little bit higher in consumables. While that is really a great positive outcome from a traffic and customer relevance standpoint, that higher consumables will drive a slightly lower margin mix. Some of that mix dynamic is absorbing tariff benefits.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

More powerfully, we have really been focused in the back half on protecting value for the customer. While tariff rates have come down, we are also navigating some higher inflation and on portions of our assortment. We are seeing some pressure in supply chain, of course, because of fuel. Rather than passing those costs on to the customer, we have taken advantage of the fact that we are getting that lower tariff rate in, and that tariff rate is absorbing inflation and helping us to maintain value across key categories. We think that is helping our traffic. Of course, we think that is also driving market share gains. Looking at this, I think we have got the right balance between driving the near term results and strengthening the business.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

The good news, I mean, this is really good news, is that our outlook has not included the tariff refunds to offset any of the current inflation. We are taking those higher costs in our run rate, and we are offsetting that higher volatility. Again, I know there is a lot there in the financials this quarter, but hopefully that lays that out for you.

Seth Sigman
Seth Sigman
Analyst at Barclays

Okay. Yeah, that is very helpful. I did want to follow up on the tariff refunds, and perhaps you can give us a little bit more color on how you are deploying those funds and what type of return are you assuming in this guidance for the spending of that? If there is any context on how that has already started to play out as you start to deploy that. Thanks so much.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, sure, Seth. I will start and then Stewart, if you want to jump in on the returns. As we talked about in the script, we are thinking about tariff refunds as a way to really enhance our strategy. What it gives us is the opportunity to take the initiatives we have laid out and accelerate them. We also use a small portion of the refunds tactically to fund our 40th anniversary dollar price point strategy, which as I mentioned, created a ton of buzz and excitement for our customers, really supports that thrill of the hunt. The investments are focused, as we all are, on enhancing value, convenience, and discovery. So that includes improving our assortment with incredible values, making our stores easier to shop by upgrading in-store signage.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

The marketing piece of it, where we are talking to our customers in ways we really never have before and scaling those marketing and digital capabilities. These are all areas that we believe can really increase customer engagement and accelerate our traffic flywheel. The refunds were significant. We are trying to be as thoughtful as we can about how to deploy them.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

So the investments today provide a lasting return. Stewart, if you want to touch on those returns.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, thanks Mike. Look, just a couple quick points. We really did not take any real return in the incremental spend, and there were two reasons for that. First, we're in an environment where many retailers are reinvesting back in price and we want to remain competitive. So all boats may end up in the same space. Second, a number of the investments we're actually making are in areas, particularly the SG&A, where we're talking about store standards or where we're talking about messaging. These are places that are going to help to build momentum in the business. You wouldn't ordinarily expect to see a sudden rush of benefit in. But the way we looked at those is to try to make sure that these are costs that are going to have lasting benefit, but that are not lasting in terms of expense.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

As Mike said, we're using this as an opportunity to accelerate and enhance the investments we are making in our business that could drive initiatives across our stores. There could be some upside in this. But I think for the moment, it's a better approach to saying that we're going to be cautious in the way that we estimate our outcomes.

Seth Sigman
Seth Sigman
Analyst at Barclays

Okay. Thanks, guys. Good luck in the back half.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Thanks.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer. Your line is now live.

Rupesh Parikh
Rupesh Parikh
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions, and also congrats on a nice quarter. On store standards, you mentioned that about one-third of stores are not meeting your internal benchmarks, down from about half last October. How should we think about the opportunity from here to not only maintain those standards but improve them?

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, Rupesh, thank you. At Investor Day last year, this was a critical point that we made. We were really clear that when you improve store standards, you improve the entire foundation of the company, and it's the transformation that unlocks the full potential of this business. We knew we had meaningful opportunity across the fleet, and we laid out a very disciplined approach to address it. We've got a chart in the investor slide deck that shows what this team has accomplished so far, and so I want to make a few points on this. First, the progress we've made is encouraging. But we certainly don't view getting from roughly half the chain to about a third of the stores from the opportunity bucket up as crossing the finish line. We view this as evidence that what we're doing is working and gaining traction.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

If you would think about this, early on, a lot of your efforts are just focused on addressing the most visible opportunities. And we have made meaningful progress there. But there is still a significant opportunity to elevate the standards across the entire fleet. Even many of our better performing stores have room to improve, whether that is merch execution or in-stock levels, recovery, just the overall shopping experience. And those incremental improvements, when you are talking about 9,500 stores, really matters. It is not just about going from an opportunity store to a good store. We want to go from good to great and great to G.O.L.D. We want to raise the bar on the entire fleet. And when you do that is the difference maker for Dollar Tree. And just the other point I would make is, I think a lot of retailers can make progress.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

They can get focused and make short-term progress. The key to all this and the way we have built it is that we are going to sustain these elevated standards. That is the harder challenge. When you look at G.O.L.D. and our G.O.L.D. standards, we know where we want to get our stores, we know where we want to keep our stores, and our culture of accountability around execution, it is what gives us confidence that we will get there. Ultimately, you run better stores, you give a better customer experience, that drives traffic, sales, and productivity over time. The positive traffic trends we saw this quarter give us confidence that customers are noticing the improvements, and with a long runway to go, it gives us confidence in what we are doing in our future. I am very passionate about this point.

Rupesh Parikh
Rupesh Parikh
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Great. Then I have a quick follow-up question for Stewart. So in terms of the updated outlook, can you help us think through some of the puts and takes on the gross margin and SG&A line for Q3 and Q4? It will be helpful if you can provide any color, mix impact, freight, fuel, tariffs, and shrink as well. Thank you.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Yeah. Thanks, Rupesh. You said a quick question. There is a lot here, so I am not sure if it would be a quick answer, but let me unpack this. And I really want to take some time to talk about the tariffs, because we have had a great quarter. We are delivering a little bit faster, and I do not want to confuse the reinvestment with really the underlying performance of the business, which is good. So let me take this apart here. We spent a lot of time trying to unpack the tariffs so that there is transparency, and you can see the business that sits underneath that. And if you look at the supplemental deck, we laid out the full year in that deck so that you could understand what the tariff impacts are, and you can separate them from what I am saying about the rest of the business.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Let me just take you through the items, starting with the refunds, the reinvestment of the duties. You get a picture of that. Then I will come and I will talk about the gross margin and the SG&A and give you color on some of the other items that you have asked about. When I talked about the prepared remarks, we had received about $369 million of refund in Q2, and that benefited gross margin in Q2. Then for the full year, we currently expect to reinvest approximately $210 million. You get a big benefit in Q2, and you get the expenses coming in the back part of the year. $210 million that we are going to reinvest for the full year. That is $80 million impacting gross margin and $130 million impacting SG&A.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

But of the $210 million, you will recall, or maybe as I went past that in the prepared remarks, we reinvested $37 million in Q2. That had $22 million in COGS and $15 million in SG&A. Think about that. The back half then, I will just give you the numbers. The back half will have a gross margin impact of $58 million in COGS, in gross margin, and $115 million in SG&A. Keep in mind that the last number, the SG&A number, includes the $40 million of charity donation that Mike talked about. When you combine all these items on an EPS basis, the net benefit is about $0.60 for the year. That includes, by the way, $14 million or so that I spoke to in positive income in the $383 million refund. But $0.60 for the full year.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

If you now accept that all the tariffs, you put those aside, the color I am now going to give you completely excludes any of the puts and takes I have just given you on tariffs. We said we expected gross margin to be up for the year, and that means up modestly for the year. That means that there is going to be some pressure in the back half. Specifically, we expect the gross margin to be flattish in Q3, which benefits from cycling last year's inventory write-off. We expect Q4, that gross margin will be down. What drives that? In both quarters, we have higher freight costs driven by higher fuel prices, and we had last year, recall, in the back half of the year, very low freight prices. So we are cycling some of that, and we have that broad-based inflation that is coming through our merch costs.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

I think a lot of that is tied probably to fuel and but we are seeing broad-based inflation. There is a lesser impact on the mix shift to consumables. It is mostly driven by the other two. While you get a little bit of benefit from the current lower tariffs, they are helping, but they do not offset the negative impacts of freight and inflation. When I am talking about tariffs, I am not talking about the refunds now, I am talking about the ongoing tariff rates. There is a lot here. Forgive me. I want to be really clear on the merch costs, because if we are talking about these higher freight costs, we are talking about these higher fuel prices. To the extent that those are sticky, and of course, the market is volatile. To the extent those are sticky, we will deploy the five levers. We have done that repeatedly over the last couple of years.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

You can see that we know how to manage to the margin. On shrink, of course, we are not expecting the same magnitude in the back half of the year because most of the inventories have been taken. I think that is the picture on gross margin. Let me go to your last point, which is SG&A. I am talking about SG&A inclusive of the TSA income. We said in the past, we are cycling the red stickering initiatives from last year, and that is about $33 million a quarter. We see several offsets to this benefit, which includes lower TSA income as we wind down the TSA. We have got some higher utility costs, and we have got some higher marketing costs where we have chosen to invest. But the good news on SG&A is we are controlling the controllables in SG&A, and we continue to see opportunity. There is a lot there.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

If I just summarize it by saying, I have broken out the tariffs. You will see those higher reinvestments in the back part of the year, which will reduce our EPS in each of the quarters. You should add that back, and that is probably about two-thirds, one-third, just as a rough guide. On the margins, we are managing these higher costs as part of our run rates. I have laid those out for you. On SG&A, we are in charge of the SG&A items that are controllable.

Rupesh Parikh
Rupesh Parikh
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Great. Thank you for all the color. That is very helpful.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Bobby Griffin from Raymond James. Your line is now live.

Bobby Griffin
Bobby Griffin
Analyst at Raymond James

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the questions and congrats on a good quarter.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Bobby.

Bobby Griffin
Bobby Griffin
Analyst at Raymond James

Mike, I wanted to circle up first on the dollar price points that you referenced. Is that something we should expect on a go-forward basis? How are you thinking about those items in the context of the multi-price strategy? Anything that would prevent that from being part of the assortment going forward?

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, it's a good question, Bobby. I'll tell you, like our founders, everything we do is designed around delivering value, convenience, and discovery for our customers. Those are the principles at the heart of Dollar Tree, and they guide every pricing decision we make. We're pleased with where our multi-price strategy stands today. Multi-price gives us the flexibility to deliver the right item at the right price, while always maintaining that compelling value proposition across the store. The thrill of the hunt can come from finding a $5 hammer or a $3 seasonal item or a dollar pool noodle. What matters is that the customers know they're getting outstanding value no matter what the price point is. With that context, looking ahead, there's nothing preventing us from maintaining a dollar price point within the assortment. As Stewart said before, we buy to a margin.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

When we can offer a dollar item and still deliver the value in economics we're looking for, we'll absolutely do that. Ultimately, multi-price is not about moving away from our heritage. It's about giving us more flexibility to drive the value, convenience, and discovery that has always been our heritage and will always be our heritage.

Bobby Griffin
Bobby Griffin
Analyst at Raymond James

Good. That's helpful. I appreciate it. Then just quickly as a follow-up, Stewart, on the helium shortages, modest comp headwind here in 2Q, just how should we think about that in terms of the back half and what's assumed in the guide from that aspect?

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Yeah. I'll actually jump in on that. I'm very close to it. I will say that the team's done a great job, on the merch side and on the store side, navigating the helium shortage. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, helium availability reduced sales by about $15 million or 30 basis points of comp, during Q2. The impact was concentrated in our party business. Balloons are an important traffic driver for that business, and when customers come in for balloons, they often purchase other items for celebration and events. The impact definitely extends beyond the balloon sale itself. But what I think is really important is we don't have a demand issue here. The challenge has been the availability of helium across the industry and these pockets where we've seen some challenges, and that's limited our ability to fully meet the demand.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

We're working and we've worked closely with our suppliers. We've taken steps to manage through the disruption. Supply remains constrained throughout the quarter. As we look to the back half of the year, it's still uncertain. Because of that, we're not assuming a recovery in the near term in our numbers. But we work this constantly, and I think it's important to note that when you take that impact and you step back, we're encouraged by the underlying performance of the business. You look at discretionary despite this helium headwind, broad-based strength across a number of departments, and really a strong discretionary on top of a very strong discretionary last year.

Bobby Griffin
Bobby Griffin
Analyst at Raymond James

Thank you. I appreciate the details on both aspects. Best of luck here in the back half.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Bobby.

Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Michael Lasser from UBS. Your line is now live.

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Analyst at UBS

Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. Obviously, there is a lot of moving pieces with all that is going on, within the margins especially. My question is a two-parter. One is, you are pointing out that the gross margin should be down year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Most likely, the investment community is going to extrapolate that into next year as some of these persistent costs linger around. You have made the case that you can use your five levers to offset that. Is there anything different about this environment that we should at least not anticipate the gross margin will be down for a period of time because you do have a lot of competitors who are investing in price and that could constrain your ability to pass along further price increases?

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Yeah. Michael, let me pick that up. First of all, I've seen a lot of earnings releases where people are talking about using tariff refunds to offset back half inflation. I want to point out that's not what we've done here. All the inflation that we've discussed is directly in the run rate. We wanted to do that because we want you to see what the underlying business looks like. Having said that, as you know, of course, we have very successfully managed volatility these past couple of years using those five levers, and we're confident that we can manage to the margin and work to the algorithm that we laid out at our Investor Day.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

The picture for the back half of the year is, of course, as painted, but we want to be mindful also that because of the volatility, these things can move around a lot. Just imagine that we see changes in tariff or more importantly, we see a cessation of hostility in the Middle East and we see a dramatic reduction in fuel costs. These could change that inflation picture quite dramatically. It doesn't make sense for us, given the strategies that we employ and the value we want to drive for our customers, to take any sort of premature and reactive kinds of decisions. We're driving a great result for the year.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

We've absorbed these kinds of inflations in that great result, and we think it's better to stay the course until we can see very clearly what the results are going to look like, and our merchants and our cost base will respond to what we need to drive the right results for next year.

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Analyst at UBS

Okay. Another way of basically asking the same question, so I apologize for that, is you at your Investor Day laid out an algorithm that will generate substantial earnings growth moving forward. Given these inflationary pressures, coupled with the unique investments that you are making this year and the funding sources from those investments, will 2027 be a year in light of all that where you think you can generate the algorithm? Or should we, as the outside, be thinking next year is going to be a sub-algorithm year given that you may have to digest some of what happened this year?

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, Michael, we feel confident in our algorithm. We think Q2 was an incredible proof point of that. With traffic turning earlier, I think it demonstrates the customer response. We're not giving 2027 guidance today, but we feel really good about the initiatives that we outlined at Investor Day, the work we've done. What you're starting to see is these initiatives build upon each other and work in conjunction with each other. I call it better, better. So it's a better assortment in better run stores, and now with better marketing, and more to come on that. When I look out at the multi-year horizon, I'm excited about what we're doing, and the proof points are telling me we're doing the right things. We need to keep executing, and there's much strength ahead.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, the only thing I'd add to that, Michael, is that the sort of pressure you're seeing in the back half, that inflation driven, everybody's feeling that. We're not going to be alone in that. I think what separates us, in my mind, and why I feel confident about the long range algorithm is that we're taking the right choices. You're seeing those results in this quarter, and we're giving you the kind of transparency because we have that belief.

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Analyst at UBS

Understood. Thank you so much and good luck.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo. Your line is now live.

Edward Kelly
Edward Kelly
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hi, good morning, guys. I was hoping that you could maybe unpack the second half a little bit from a comp perspective and what you're thinking there. Obviously, your traffic compare gets a lot easier. Ticket compare is a little bit harder there. Just sort of how you're thinking about sustaining sort of the two year on traffic, and then maybe also just additional color on the mix side and discretionary and what you think is causing that softness there.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Ed. I'll take that. I think as you look at this sustaining, it really goes to the initiatives we've seen. Everything we laid out at Investor Day was designed to drive both traffic and ticket. While ticket carried the water in the first half of the year, as you lap last year's tariff related price actions, we know it's ticket. So what gives me confidence in the second half of the year is, yes, it's going to be skewed towards ticket, but seeing that, I'm sorry, skewed towards traffic, excuse me. Seeing that traffic come earlier and seeing the positive Q2, and I mentioned we were pleased with the start to Q3, that gives me confidence in that traffic really helping to drive.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

But as you start to smooth these things out and you look at the long term algo, all the initiatives we're executing on are designed to drive both, and I think we've got some really good proof points as you look at the first half of the year, and that gives us the confidence that traffic will carry the day in the second half. And that as we normalize over time, we really get the strength of both ticket and traffic, because that's what we're designing it to do. In terms of the mix, Brockton will come out a little, and I won't apologize for a 1.6% comp in discretionary. When you look at it's on top of a 6.1 from last year. And the consumables comp was incredible. I said it in the prepared remarks.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

This wasn't a question of consumable being the story and, oh, no, on discretionary. This was a story about discretionary being strong and consumables being very strong. Add back in that helium. When you look at 30 basis points, that takes discretionary to a 2% comp in the quarter. Remember, Q2, there's not a lot of Dollar Tree type events in Q2. So give me Halloween, give me Thanksgiving, let me get to Christmas, and I think that consumables discretionary mix really is strong for us and is constantly the magic of Dollar Tree.

Edward Kelly
Edward Kelly
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Great. Just a follow-up, Stewart, could you unpack freight for us? Just the incremental headwind. What is sort of fuel surcharge? How we should be thinking about what's going on with the underlying contract rates. There's been some talk about driver shortages. I don't know what type of visibility you have on renewals. Just any help you could provide there?

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

Yeah. Look, I'll just go back. Nothing's really changed from the previous quarters in terms of the composition there. We did enjoy very low, particularly ocean freight rates at the end of last year, which we highlighted in our call. So there's a bit of lapping that. But ignoring that for a second, as we mentioned, we got through all of our, or most of our renewals, and the base rates were not substantially different from last year. What is different is really this fuel, the fuel surcharge that's coming through is very, very meaningful, and that's going to continue as long as the fuel prices are elevated. There is an impact from drivers. It's not nearly as much as fuel. It really kills the driver here. I mean, sort of good news, bad news. Nobody wants to see higher fuel prices.

Stewart Glendinning
Stewart Glendinning
CFO at Dollar Tree

But to the extent that we see things settle out in the Middle East, and those fuel prices can come back pretty quickly, and that'll be felt in our freight rates pretty quickly because that's all set up as surcharge with readjustment timeframes that are actually quite short.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

Mike Creedon
Mike Creedon
CEO at Dollar Tree

Thank you, everyone. We are excited about the quarter. We are excited about the future of Dollar Tree, and we appreciate your time this morning on the call. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

Executives
    • Daniel Delrosario
      Daniel Delrosario
      SVP of Investor Relations and Treasurer
    • Mike Creedon
      Mike Creedon
      CEO
    • Stewart Glendinning
      Stewart Glendinning
      CFO
Analysts
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