Aptiv Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Negative Sentiment: Aptiv lowered its 2026 guidance, reducing midpoint revenue expectations by $300 million to $12.7 billion and forecasting adjusted EPS of $5.70. The revisions reflect weaker China production schedules, delayed program launches and ramps, and timing of enterprise software sales.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Second-quarter revenue rose 2% to $3.3 billion, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 10 basis points to 18.6%. North America and Asia-Pacific growth helped offset an 8% revenue decline in Europe and a 1% decline in automotive revenue.
  • Positive Sentiment: Non-automotive revenue grew 12%, with momentum in diversified industrials, aerospace and defense, software and services, energy storage, robotics, drones and data centers. Aptiv expects robotics and drone revenue to reach approximately $300 million annually over the next few years, and cited a drone award with more than $500 million in lifetime revenue potential.
  • Positive Sentiment: Aptiv reported $5 billion of second-quarter bookings and $10 billion year to date, keeping it on track toward its $20 billion full-year target. The company also repurchased $250 million of shares in the quarter and plans to exceed $600 million in repurchases for 2026.
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Earnings Conference Call
Aptiv Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Welcome to the Aptiv Q2 2026 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Betsy Frank, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Betsy Frank
Betsy Frank
VP of Investor Relations at Aptiv

Thank you, Shelley. Good morning, thank you for joining Aptiv's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. The press release and slide presentation can be found on the investor relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring, and other special items, reflect the continuing operations of Aptiv as of June 30th, reflecting the treatment of our EDS segment as a discontinued operation for the second quarter 2025. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. Unless stated otherwise, all references to growth rates are on a pro forma adjusted year-over-year basis. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings.

Betsy Frank
Betsy Frank
VP of Investor Relations at Aptiv

Joining us today are Kevin Clark, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Varun Laroyia, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Thank you, Betsy, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Starting on slide three, during the second quarter, we generated 2% revenue growth and 10 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion. We continued to demonstrate progress diversifying our business, evidenced by double-digit non-auto revenue growth in the quarter and new business awards in attractive high-growth markets that present expansion opportunities for Aptiv. While we're increasingly optimistic about the long-term opportunities presented in these areas, in the near term, we continue to contend with challenges in our traditional automotive market, which are leading us to lower our 2026 guidance, including prolonged sales weakness in the domestic China market, which is causing local OEMs to reduce second half production on vehicle platforms for the domestic market, also leading to a further reduction in schedules from luxury European OEMs for vehicles exported to the China market.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Varun is going to walk you through how these dynamics and other factors are impacting our guidance for the remainder of the year and what specifically has changed since we last spoke to you. I'll spend a bit more time discussing the actions we're taking, including how we're working to evolve our business mix in and outside of the automotive market to mitigate the challenges we're experiencing today. Now that the separation of EDS is complete, we'll continue to evaluate additional opportunities to maximize value for shareholders over the long term. Let's begin by reviewing our second quarter progress against our strategic priorities. During the second quarter, we continued the momentum we'd established, leveraging our product portfolio and operating capabilities across diverse end markets, including product innovations, where we secured our first Gen 8 Radar award, an important component of our ADAS platform.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Penetration into new end markets, where the products we've developed for automotive have applications in other markets, reflected in the award from Robust.AI, which I'll talk more about later. An expansion of our software partnership ecosystem with leading-edge AI players, including most recently with NVIDIA. This list represents a small portion of the $5 billion of new business awards during the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $10 billion, putting us on track for our $20 billion full-year target. We also continue to increase the resiliency of our business model by leveraging our digital twin and end-tier tracking capabilities to provide our automotive and adjacent market customers with a step change in supply chain visibility. Reaching long-term supply agreements is part of our supply chain resiliency efforts.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

These are both great examples of the actions we've taken to enhance the robustness of our operating model that are enabling us to keep our customers connected in this dynamic environment. It is one of the reasons we were recently recognized as Supplier of the Year by Ford in the supply chain category. On capital allocation, we repurchased $250 million of our shares in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $325 million, with an intention to repurchase a similar amount in the second half of the year and bring the full-year total to over $600 million. Over the next few years, we're committed to returning approximately half of our free cash flow to shareholders through share repurchases while simultaneously pursuing smaller bolt-on M&A transactions to diversify the business and better position us for the long term.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Turning to review our business segments through the lens of the automotive and non-automotive end markets we serve. Starting with the automotive market highlights during the quarter. We made some meaningful progress expanding our business with leading OEMs in Asia Pacific and driving growth in new business bookings across next-generation technology areas, including our full-stack Gen 6 ADAS system and in-cabin solutions like driver and cabin monitoring. Notable program launches in the quarter included within the Intelligent Systems segment, a full tech stack ADAS award across additional vehicle lines of a large European OEM, demonstrating the flexibility and scalability of our solutions and continued strength of our technology partnership. The launch of our next generation digital cockpit for a luxury European OEM, incorporating software-enabled functionality via over-the-air updates and lifecycle management capabilities.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Within the Engineered Components segment, the integration of our high-voltage interconnects on a European OEM's next-gen high-powered 800 V architecture program. We also continue to innovate across our product portfolio, evidenced by the introduction of our advanced occupancy classification system, which is the industry's first occupant detection system that utilizes AI ML-based computer vision software and is powered entirely by an in-cabin camera, streamlining vehicle systems architecture as well as lowering cost. We also secured several important new business awards in the quarter. Within Intelligent Systems, these include a Gen 8 Radar award by Volvo Cars for its next-gen software-defined vehicle platform, where we will enable robust perception across increasingly complex environments and driving scenarios. As well as an award from a large North American OEM's next-generation software-defined vehicle architecture, a critical milestone in the transition to more centralized vehicle architectures.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Within Engineered Components, these include high-voltage bus bars across the North America and China markets for battery pack and charging applications, demonstrating continued penetration of both existing and new OEM customers on their next-generation EV platforms. The continued expansion of our business with the leading China local OEMs across our key product lines, including high-speed cable assemblies and high-voltage inlets across platforms for both the domestic and the overseas markets. Moving to slide six to discuss our progress in non-automotive markets, which reflects the applicability of our technologies across a diverse set of end markets, and the strong operating execution by our team. Starting with program launches during the quarter. In Engineered Components, we launched a new program providing high-performance interconnects for a utility-scale energy storage provider that leverages the same technology we're already delivering in automotive.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

In Intelligent Systems, we launched our integrated cockpit controller for one of the industry-leading commercial vehicle OEMs. In terms of product development in the second quarter, this included expanding our high-performance interconnect product lines for complex aerospace and defense platforms, where space-efficient, high-density solutions are critical for customers. Collaborating on an optimized power solutions for 800 V DC architectures with a leading developer of power electronics for next-generation infrastructures, including data centers, a market where we experience strong commercial momentum and see very meaningful growth opportunities over the next few years that will further accelerate with the transition to 800 V architectures. Lastly, achieving a key software milestone in cybersecurity rating for our enterprise Linux operating system, which will expand our potential opportunities in the government and the defense markets.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

A few notable business awards in the second quarter included Robust.AI selection of our intelligent perception solutions and compute, including AI and ML-based sensor fusion powered by our innovative PULSE Sensor for its Gen 3 Carter Cobot, which I'll talk more about on the next slide. In Engineered Components, an award for our high-performance cable management and protection solutions for large-scale solar energy and battery storage projects in the U.S. market. Lastly, we continue to expand our commercial presence in non-auto markets through our partnership ecosystem. First with NVIDIA, where we extended our partnership to provide Aptiv's production-grade software to edge AI customers using NVIDIA Compute. Second with Kyndryl, which is an important extension of our enterprise partner ecosystem, where Kyndryl will deploy our Wind River software as part of its mission-critical solutions portfolio.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Together, they enable customers to more easily deploy and operate mission critical systems while accelerating adoption through joint go-to-market initiatives and integrated offerings. Turning to slide seven. I want to spend a few minutes providing an overview of our progress capturing opportunities in new end markets, which we're confident will meaningfully diversify our non-automotive revenue mix over the next few years. The robotics and drone markets are higher growth, higher margin sectors where opportunity has materialized much faster than we previously anticipated, driven by the same demands for autonomous solutions that have been transforming automotive over the past decade. Since initially outlining our addressable market opportunity and growth targets for non-automotive markets, we've achieved the following.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

In robotics, we secured partnerships with three leading robotics manufacturers, and one of those partnerships has advanced to a meaningful commercial agreement, and we expect to be making additional commercial announcements during the balance of the year. In drones, in July, we secured our first commercial award from a leading drone manufacturer with total lifetime revenues of over $500 million over a five-year program. This award will be included in our third quarter bookings numbers. We're actively engaged in discussions with several drone manufacturers that we expect to translate into commercial agreements during the balance of the year. The content per device opportunity in the robotics and drone markets are significant. Our initial awards represent a large portion of that total content opportunity. Both of these markets present time-to-market advantages versus our experience in automotive.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

In summary, we're increasingly confident in the broad relevance of our product portfolio across multiple end markets, which will significantly change our business mix. We have a high degree of confidence in achieving annual revenues from the robotics and drone markets of about $300 million over the next few years. We believe we're also uniquely positioned to benefit from growth opportunities in the space, energy storage, and data center markets, which we'll talk more about in the future. I'll now turn the call over to Varun to go through our financial results and guidance in more detail.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide eight with our second quarter financial results. We delivered revenues of $3.3 billion, which grew at an adjusted rate of 2% and were just shy of the midpoint of our guidance. Looking at revenue growth by region, North America grew 10%, driven by strength across both segments. In Europe, revenue was down 8%, primarily reflecting volume pressures with select luxury OEMs, predominantly in Intelligent Systems. In Asia Pacific, revenue increased 6%, including 5% growth in China, driven by improved mix with local OEMs, partially offset by a slowdown in production for the domestic market. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $613 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 10 basis points. This came in ahead of our guidance due to the timing of recoveries and operating performance. FX and commodities amounted to a 30 basis point headwind to margin in line with our expectations.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Earnings per share was $1.63, an increase of $0.12 from the New Aptiv pro forma results in Q2 2025, reflecting higher operating income, the benefit of share repurchases, and interest other income, partially offset by higher tax expense. Free cash flow for the quarter was an outflow of $33 million and included approximately $70 million in cash separation costs associated with the Versigent spinoff, which we highlighted last quarter. Moving to slide nine and starting with highlights on the consolidated business. We generated strong results in strategically important non-automotive revenues with 12% growth, while absorbing some customer mix headwinds in our automotive business in the second quarter, where revenues declined 1%.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 10 basis points, driven by flow-through on revenue growth, strong performance across material and manufacturing, and a benefit in timing of certain recoveries, more than offsetting the impact of stranded costs following the Versigent spin, which we are aggressively working to eliminate. Turning to Intelligent Systems, revenue of $1.5 billion was flat versus the prior year, which reflects strength in the non-auto, which was driven by software and services. This was offset by automotive revenues, which were impacted by weakness with certain European OEMs and a lower production at a North American OEM impacted by a supplier fire. Intelligent Systems adjusted EBITDA margin declined 120 basis points, primarily driven by investments in non-auto markets and the impact of stranded costs.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Moving to Engineered Components, revenue of $1.8 billion grew 3% versus the prior year, driven by double-digit growth in non-auto markets and most specifically in diversified industrials and aerospace and defense. While automotive revenues were essentially flat. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 100 basis points and reflects flow-through on volume growth, favorable timing of the previously mentioned recoveries, and performance initiatives partially offset by stranded costs. Turning to our full-year 2026 financial guidance on slide 10. As a reminder, historical New Aptiv pro forma financials are on the investor relations website under the quarterly financial section. Those correspond to our guidance that treats Q1 as New Aptiv pro forma. Starting with the full-year, we now expect revenue in the range of $12.6 billion to $12.8 billion, which implies adjusted growth of 2% at the midpoint. I'll discuss the changes here in detail on the next slide.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $2.31 billion to $2.37 billion and an EBITDA margin of 18.4% at the midpoint, reflecting the impact of lower revenue growth, which is partially offset by performance. We now expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $5.60-$5.80, with a midpoint of $5.70 reflecting lower operating earnings, partially offset by a slightly lower effective tax rate and a lower share count. This also includes the projected impact of an additional $300 million in share repurchases through the remainder of the year, as Kevin mentioned. Lastly, free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $625 million-$725 million, reflecting the reduction in EBITDA

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

As a reminder, this includes the one-time cash separation costs associated with the Versigent spin-off, which have already been largely incurred year-to-date, and the continued investments in supply chain resiliency for semiconductors. For the third quarter specifically, we expect adjusted revenue growth of 1% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin of $560 million and 17.7% at the midpoint, and earnings per share of $1.30 at the midpoint. Turning back to our full-year guidance to discuss the key changes to revenue in further detail. We are reducing full-year revenue guidance at the midpoint by $300 million, which reflects the following. First, approximately $150 million related to changes in customer production schedules. These schedule revisions are primarily related to weakness in the domestic China market, with both local China OEMs and European OEMs that export to China. Second, $100 million related to delays in program launches and ramps.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Specifically, delayed ramp in production volumes on certain programs in China and the launch with a European OEM where the launch is delayed by the OEM, we did not benefit from the expansion to additional car lines as we originally anticipated. Finally, approximately $50 million related to the timing of enterprise sales in software and services. While these items have impacted both business segments, the Intelligent Systems business is disproportionately impacted by the above factors. Now translating this to the implied ramp in year-over-year revenue growth from the first half to the second half that we outlined last quarter. As a result of what I just described, the following have changed.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

First, the 150 basis points improvement in growth from lapping of previously identified headwinds, specifically the lower production with a major North American customer due to a supplier fire and program cancellations with local China OEMs is unchanged. Second, launches and ramps are now expected to contribute 200 basis points to revenue growth in the second half of the year. This is lower by 100 basis points than initially anticipated, reflecting the programs I previously described. Beyond that, the outlook for vehicle production in the second half has turned from a tailwind to a headwind. This is further amplified by our customer and program mix due to the schedule changes I outlined earlier, which are cumulatively now a 150 basis point headwind to revenue growth in the second half. I want to wrap up with some closing comments on these revisions.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

First, the China domestic market, which has and continues to be a more volatile region, has clearly deteriorated relative to when we last updated you. Second, we were not conservative enough in certain assumptions, particularly around launches and ramps. To that end, we have incorporated an additional element of conservatism in the second half of this year. I'll close by noting that we continue to see long-term opportunity across a diverse set of end markets and across regions where we are delivering solid progress, as evidenced by our revenues, bookings, and commercial awards. With that, I will turn the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Thanks, Varun. I'll wrap up on slide 12. Excuse me. In summary, we remain confident in the significant long-term opportunity resulting from secular trends that are demanding solutions that can sense, think, act, and optimize, and the customer needs they introduce for high performance and cost-optimized solutions. We also acknowledge the more near-term challenges to our business, driven by ongoing volatility in the domestic China market and the related impact on our broader automotive customer mix. To be clear, our customer mix in China has improved and dramatically moved towards the local OEMs. This improvement has not been enough to offset the rapid shift of local OEMs business toward export platforms, as well as the reduction of European vehicle exports into the China market. Holistically, we continue to focus on improving the revenue mix of our business both inside and outside of automotive.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

We also remain laser-focused on execution, delivering margin expansion, earnings growth, and strong free cash flow generation across a variety of different macro backdrops. We're keenly aware that these efforts need to translate into increased shareholder value. Based on the significant value opportunity we see in our stock, combined with the strength of our cash flow generation and balance sheet, we intend to remain active buyers of our shares, utilizing approximately 50% of our expected free cash flow on a more regular basis over the next few years to repurchase our shares. In 2026, our repurchases will be materially above this level. We're also committed to continually evaluating our business portfolio in light of changes in the macro environment to maximize shareholder value. We're confident that we'll continue to deliver value for our customers, drive profitable growth, and create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Operator, let's now open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We do ask that you limit your question to one initial with one follow-up so that we may take as many questions as possible. Again, you can press star one to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We'll now go to your first question. It will come from the line of Itay Michaeli with TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli
Itay Michaeli
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I know it's a little bit early to talk about 2027, but I'm just curious how some of the changes you're seeing in the second half of the year kind of inform you in terms of just the prior 4%-7% growth rate and look into 2027 and beyond and how we should think about that, just given some of these changes here in the second half.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Itay. Listen, our long-term view of what the business is capable of remains intact. Clearly, drivers of growth are constantly changing, especially in an environment that is dynamic as this environment is. When you look at the automotive sector, IHS has brought down the growth outlook for future vehicle production. Clearly, material cost inflation is increasing in light of various macroeconomic factors. Having said that, within the automotive sector, for the second straight year, we're running with very strong bookings across both of our businesses with the leading automotive OEMs inside and outside of China. On the non-auto side, opportunities are materializing much faster than we had initially expected, and that's across both of our business segments. We've had a tremendous amount of success leveraging our automotive portfolio into these new markets. That's an area that we're very optimistic.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

The environment certainly is dynamic. I won't get specifically into 2027 at this point in time. As we move later into the year, that's something that we'll certainly provide incremental information about and updates on.

Itay Michaeli
Itay Michaeli
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. That's helpful, Kevin. As a quick follow-up, good to hear a bit more conservatism in the second half guidance. I think the Q4 revenue guide still implies a pretty healthy uptick versus Q3. Maybe just talk about some of the drivers, inputs, and takes, and degree of visibility into that Q4 ramp. Thank you.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Itay, hi, good morning. It's Varun Laroyia out here. Listen, yes, in terms of when you think about the year-over-year second half and also Q4 in particular, essentially it's a couple of points, right? The first is the year-over-year uptick in the production with the North America customer, which had a fire at their supplier a year ago. That unwinds from a comp perspective. The second is growth in our software and services business. As I mentioned, the $50 million reduction in software enterprise bookings is from a timing perspective. We expect Q3 to be softer, but again, return to high single, double-digit levels in the fourth quarter, and then just growth in our Engineered Components business.

Itay Michaeli
Itay Michaeli
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

Mark Delaney
Mark Delaney
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Good morning, and thank you very much for taking the questions. Kevin, you mentioned that even though Aptiv has been making good progress with its bookings for the Chinese domestic OEMs, not enough of those were on the export vehicles. Maybe you could talk a bit more on that. I would have thought Aptiv was very well-positioned for exports, given the global nature of Aptiv and your strength in other regions. Maybe talk a little bit more on what's happening and what Aptiv is going to do on that front going forward.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Mark, that's a great question and a very fair one. We are very well-positioned. I would say over the last couple of years, the real focus was on how do we get a stronger mix with the leading local OEMs. When you take a look at our revenues today in China on export platforms, it's about 10% of total revenues. The mix is more heavily weighted for the domestic platforms. As you look at our bookings over the last two years, that percentage has significantly increased. The benefit of our product portfolio and our capabilities outside of the China market are certainly coming into play. Right now, our revenues don't match the bookings mix over the last two years. That's something we're working on, and that's something, quite frankly, we've been making progress on over the last year or so.

Mark Delaney
Mark Delaney
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you. I also wanted to ask about the non-automotive opportunities and nice to see the solid growth the last couple quarters there. You mentioned specific progress in drones and robotics. I think you said that business could approach $300 million of revenue in the next few years. What does that mean in terms of profitability? I know non-auto can be higher margin, but maybe there's also a number of investments you're making. If you could speak a bit more on what you're seeing there and how to think about the profit implications.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah.

Mark Delaney
Mark Delaney
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thanks.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

From a run rate standpoint, margin profile, as you can imagine, is much higher than when it's in automotive. We're investing in non-automotive capabilities today from a product and go-to-market standpoint that we talked about. There's minimal capital investment because we're using existing facilities, existing machinery and equipment. From a capital standpoint, that's less of an upfront cost and initial drag. Both markets are much higher margin profiles than what we experience in the automotive industry.

Mark Delaney
Mark Delaney
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Operator

Next question will come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Great. Thank you so much. One quick question on the change in guidance. I understand some of the revenue drivers, it seems that the EBITDA line, maybe the implied incremental would be pretty high, like around maybe 40%, which seems maybe a little bit above the normal. Can you maybe just talk about the change in the EBITDA guidance?

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Yeah. Emmanuel, it's Varun Laroyia out here. Listen, the specific one really is the software timing item that I mentioned. That really is to do with product mix. That's the one which kind of leads to the second half. The $50 million reduction that I'm talking about, that really is what impacts that.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. This is a very high incremental, therefore, on average, the total is around that 40%?

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Yeah, I think typically the mix would be, the decremental would be less than that. I think just given the size of the software revenue reduction was roughly $50 million in the back half, the flow-through on that tends to be higher, therefore the overall decremental in that particular period is higher.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Understood.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Okay.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

I understand the software revenue change is timing. Can you maybe just give a little bit more color around what's going on the ground, and just sort of like how to think about growth in software on a go-forward basis?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. Growth in software, we've been growing high-single-digit, low-double-digits over the last several quarters in the software business. Our software business is kind of twofold when you break it down: embedded solutions, which I would say tend to be less lumpy, then enterprise solutions that go into markets like telco and industrial markets, which tend to be larger in terms of their overall size, Emmanuel. At times they can shift for various reasons, and when they shift, it has a more pronounced impact on a particular quarter's growth, right?

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. On a go-forward basis, what sort of like growth rate would you expect?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah, I think our growth rate will continue in the double-digit sort of growth rate, with a target to getting to that mid-teen sort of growth rate. We've been a bit below that over the last few quarters.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Next question will come from the line of Joe Spak with UBS.

Joe Spak
Joe Spak
Analyst at UBS

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Look, I appreciate sort of the coming clean on not being conservative enough. You think you've built in more of a cushion going forward. We've been here before. Maybe you could just sort of walk through how or what you're doing to sort of changing your planning process for some of this uncertainty. I know it's schedule changes and ramps, but really it's all sort of the same, right? It's all one and the same. It's volume. How are you thinking about, one, planning the business and two, sort of communicating that on a go-forward basis? Like, what's changing from here?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. I think, Joe, that's a fair question. I think as it relates to as China becomes a bigger part of our overall revenue base, as the China local OEMs become a bigger part of our overall mix. You know as well as I do, China OEMs have a number of different nameplates or a higher mix of nameplates relative to the Western OEMs. Just a more significant haircut from an overall conservatism stamp. I think that is the major change in terms of our process, in terms of how we operate internally, and how we forecast externally. To date, we've had a process where we've discounted those schedules, obviously have not discounted them enough. I would say the China domestic market is significantly weaker at this point in time than what it's been over a number of years, with domestic retail sales down 20%.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

I think most people in our industry would have expected that the China government would have stepped in to provide some element of support as it relates to the industry. It hasn't yet. Assuming that they would provide some support, obviously near term, was a mistake. I think it's just an overlay of significantly more conservatism.

Joe Spak
Joe Spak
Analyst at UBS

Okay. Thanks for that, Kevin. Then maybe just some quick hitters on some of the non-auto things. One, how quick can sort of the drone business come into sales? I noticed you said you're collaborating on 800 VDC. Can you just describe that a little more? Is that something you're licensing and building, or are you creating your own solution? Then the optical M&A, is that a tech buy and something you need to commercialize, or is there a book of business there?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. There's a couple layers to that. As it relates to whether it's drone robotics or energy storage, depending on the customer, the path to market is much faster. On the robotics and drone awards this year, we'll have revenues in 2027. I would expect typically roughly six months path to revenue. On the energy storage/data center side, most of our product portfolio is in and around power side. Transition to 800 V, given our existing portfolio in 800 V present incremental opportunities. We're working with several players. We'll be talking about more commercial awards, I'm sure, over the next couple months. Today, in that space, we have under $50 million in revenues. We expect that to grow at a very rapid rate, Joe, over the next three years.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Again, most of that is in and around power, both to the rack and now with some capabilities in the rack. The M&A acquisition is just building out our portfolio as it relates to products that we can take, quite frankly, across multiple markets.

Joe Spak
Joe Spak
Analyst at UBS

Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

Colin Langan
Colin Langan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm not sure if I'm looking at slide eight wrong, you actually, looks like you outperformed in China. According to that slide, you were up five and the market down three.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah.

Colin Langan
Colin Langan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

It was pretty weak in Europe. Is that really the bigger issue, or because I think you mentioned also in comments about European exports to China weakening? Is that the bigger factor that's causing a headwind here? Is that possibly why we've seen other suppliers haven't cut guidance, do you have higher exposure to some of those players and that's having a bigger impact?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

No. There's a couple aspects. We talked about traction in commercial awards in China with the local OEMs. We have made significant progress, and that is what's reflected in our overall year-over-year growth. Having said that year-over-year growth was not as strong as we had initially forecasted and included in our guidance. Yep, we showed strong growth, strong outgrowth, but not where we expected it to be. As it relates to the impact of China, the domestic market, the decline in the domestic market, the reduction in schedules impacted the local OEMs, impacting both our EC business as well as our IS business. Our IS business was disproportionately impacted by the number two player in the China market, who we were launching several active safety programs with.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

From a European standpoint, it really is principally the export of vehicles into the China market from two luxury European OEMs that we saw a significant reduction in their schedules, depending on the OEM, late June or July. I think they're the OEMs that have been the most public about their challenges in the China market, so you can identify who those are. That's where the biggest impact, quite frankly, is.

Colin Langan
Colin Langan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Got it. Just to follow up on our earlier questions, the margins seem to kind of the quarterly cadence here is a little odd. It's like there's a pretty negative decremental sequentially and then a big incremental into Q4.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah.

Colin Langan
Colin Langan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Is this all recovery-driven? Is there some cost headwinds in Q3?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

There are three things. Here's how I would look at it. One is just volume flow through Q2 to Q3. The incremental impact of a piece of that being software, so higher margins. Going from Q3 to Q4, bounce back in software, higher margin, volume pick up, just underlying volume and flow-through on that volume. Third, as you know, engineering credits, recoveries, things like that tend to be stronger in the fourth quarter than they are in other quarters. That's the walk. There is an element of Q3 margin that's impacted by, Varun mentioned in his comments, timing on recovery. Normally that would have shown up in Q3. Q3 is a little bit, let's call it artificially lower than what we would have expected. That has some general impact.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

My comments about the walk as it relates to volume software recoveries, that's the biggest piece.

Colin Langan
Colin Langan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Got it. All right. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

James Picariello
James Picariello
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Hi, everyone. Kevin, can you share some thoughts behind the portfolio changes you had indicated at the tail end of your prepared remarks?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Listen, I don't have any specific comments I would make at this point in time. Clearly, we're operating in a very dynamic market, right? That's across regions and across technologies. As we always do, we're evaluating that mix of products, that portfolio, and how we optimize and drive shareholder value. I would just leave it at that.

James Picariello
James Picariello
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Yeah. Understood. Then just, can you share segment-level color on the updated guide here for the full-year? What's embedded for each segment's non-auto growth in the outlook? Thanks.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. I think non-auto growth for both for the full-year are relatively strong. Third quarter in the Intelligent Systems segment, it'll be weaker given that software adjustment that I talked about. We see a strong bounce back in the fourth quarter. Non-automotive revenue growth across both of the businesses has been very strong and in line with our 8%-10% sort of framework that we've provided previously.

James Picariello
James Picariello
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Just like revenue core growth and margins by segment or just directionally would be great. Thank you.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

So-

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Yeah.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah, just to be sure, are you asking that for the full-year or?

James Picariello
James Picariello
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Yeah. Full-year.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Yeah. Listen, in terms of both businesses, based on the latest updates that we've mentioned, as I mentioned, the revision in guidance is largely impacting the Intelligent Systems business, right? We kind of gave you the puts and takes associated with that. From an Intelligent Systems perspective, we would expect the business at this point of time to be approximately flat on a year-over-year basis on a revenue basis, with Engineered Components growing in the low to mid single digits. That's point number one. With regards to margins, essentially what we've kind of talked about previously, solid margins coming through both businesses with EBITDA margins in Intelligent Systems, call it at the mid-teens level. With regards to on a full-year basis, on our Engineered Components business in the, call it, low twenties.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Call it roughly about 22 points of margin for the full-year.

James Picariello
James Picariello
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC.

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Analyst at RBC

Good morning, Kevin, Varun, and Betsy. Just one more question on this three buckets of this change, if that's okay.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Sure.

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Analyst at RBC

It looks like, yeah, look, the scheduled change, you have, I think, the European OEMs, the Chinese market, the delayed programs,

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Analyst at RBC

The timing one coming back in Q4. The timing one's fairly obvious. Just curious on the other two, I guess, do you have any level of confidence that those other two buckets? You clearly gave those buckets distinctly for a reason. Potentially coming back in 2027, is this what's reliant on the Chinese government coming back with stimulus, or are some of those like you know you're getting back? I have a follow-up.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Tom, you're speaking to all three buckets, or are you speaking to the reduction in H2 customer schedules?

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Analyst at RBC

The timing one we already know. It's coming back in Q4. You had two other items, right? Schedule changing and delayed program. Just curious of those two buckets potentially coming back in 2027.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. There's two aspects to the China local market. Aspect one is domestic China market with domestic local OEMs, and how that plays out during 2027. It's, at least for us, difficult to envision another year where the China local market is down 20% and production schedules are therefore adjusted to that point. It's difficult to envision that, but those are some of the things that we're working through. There's a second piece as it relates to within that. The bulk of that 150 that Varun talked about is China local OEMs. There's a part that is effectively European exports into China. I think it's possible that those European exports into China, we don't see a bounce back during 2027 in light of the competitiveness of the China market.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

As it relates to the program delays and launch ramps, listen, the local China OEMs, I'm confident that you'll continue to see their launches ramp at a lower slope than what was originally forecasted. There's one program from BYD that we're confident will be launched, just was shifted, and that's an export vehicle program. There is the program that Varun talked about that was a European OEM, that was a delayed launch from a European OEM, that had initially the view was it was going to be rolled across multiple programs. That program is launching as we speak, so that will be a tailwind from a revenue standpoint as we head into 2027.

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Analyst at RBC

That's very helpful. Doesn't sound as bad as-- The non-automotive question I have, you mentioned this is coming in ahead of expectations. I know you discussed this at the Investor Day, and these are all very different verticals, but just curious what you're seeing on the competitive side here that you're able to win so much here. I would've thought that there'd be incumbents in these verticals. Is this simply just lack of competitors and kind of a rising tide lifts all boats? How have you guys been so successful in capturing these new business wins here?

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. I put them into two buckets. I would put the drone and robotics buckets, where we're playing, and our principal focus on the drone and robotics here is in and around autonomy. Robotics, it tends to be AMRs. Although we have commercial opportunities with a few of the humanoid players, our view on significant volume is likely to more come from players like AMRs. It tends to be more of a nascent industry. I know there's a lot of talk about the size and growth, but it's a bit more nascent. It's not only our technology where we bring opportunity, but it's also our capability as it relates to systems engineering, bill of material, supply chain, and manufacturing that is differentiated from the typical players in a nascent industry. On the drone side, that's even more so the case.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

There's significant demand for reasons that you're aware of. There is a requirement of a non-China supply chain for a number of different technologies. That's something that we have visibility to and we can provide. Our perception systems and compute and ability to take bill of material costs out is unique relative to what their current supply base, which isn't very mature and isn't quite as organized as what we're accustomed to. I would say it's a mix of bringing our technical capabilities, but there's an equal part of what we do day in and day out from an automotive standpoint, so that there aren't really the traditional competitors, if I could say. It's an area that we're moving very fast in. We've invested in capabilities, as Varun talked about.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

We're going to continue to invest and actually ramp up our investment in this area because the potential opportunity near term is significant. As I said, the margin profile pricing here is more value-based than cost-based. The nature of those two markets are very good. I should now go to, if I can, just to the energy storage/data center. Listen, our sweet spot is power. That's what it is. We've put a team very focused on those two specific markets based on our backgrounds in power distribution. We are working with players who are well-known in the automotive space for energy storage, including now Texas-based global OEM, as well as the leading China OEM as it relates to leveraging our automotive relationship. We're working with several players that I alluded to who support those markets today for incremental opportunities.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Today, again, our revenues are relatively small, but the size of the commercial pursuits and bookings, we're confident will ramp up revenues certainly much faster than what we experienced in the automotive market.

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Analyst at RBC

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

Rajat Gupta
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to start with one clarification on the first quarter restatement. If I look at the press release and take the six-month EBITDA number, it implies a lower 1Q than what was provided in the 1Q deck and the financials on the website. Just want to make sure if that is just an accounting nuance that we need to be aware of?

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Hey, Rajat. Yeah

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

as a matter of follow-up. Thanks.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Rajat, it's Varun out here. Listen, that's all CODO associated with the Versigent spin. What you need to look at is the Q1 pro forma on our investor relations portal.

Rajat Gupta
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Understood. That's the right number. Okay. Got it.

Varun Laroyia
Varun Laroyia
EVP and CFO at Aptiv

Yeah.

Rajat Gupta
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Just to follow up, just in the bookings mix, within the Intelligent Systems, year-to-date bookings or just get to second quarter bookings, are you able to share any more detail in terms of how much is full stack ADAS including software versus modular? I'm curious if that mix has changed at all over the last few months as a lot of manufacturers try to build more internal capability. Thanks.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Yeah. The trend that we're seeing, and I want to make sure, I think you're talking about the Intelligent Systems and tech stack?

Rajat Gupta
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Yeah

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

is more of a separation of software and hardware, and quite frankly, more software opportunities. I referenced the full tech stack award from a Gen 6 ADAS standpoint. We're seeing or experience a significant portion of our bookings in 2026 will be ADAS, Gen 6 ADAS solutions, the bulk of which will include our hardware and our software. We're seeing more momentum there. We're seeing more OEMs come to us as they work on their path to software-defined vehicles, asking us to do some of that software development in and around areas like middleware and other portions of their software tech stack. I know we often get asked that question about insourcing from an OEM standpoint, and it varies a bit by OEM, but we would tell you our experience has been the overall trend, we've not seen that.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

In fact, we've seen several OEMs who have attempted to do broad-based software that have decided to go down a different path and to be more reliant on suppliers.

Rajat Gupta
Rajat Gupta
Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. That's helpful. Yeah, thanks for that color, and good luck.

Operator

That was our last question. This will now conclude today's question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Kevin Clark for any additional or closing remarks.

Kevin Clark
Kevin Clark
Chair and CEO at Aptiv

Thank you everyone for joining us today. Have a great day.

Operator

This call is now complete, and thank you so much for joining.

Executives
    • Betsy Frank
      Betsy Frank
      VP of Investor Relations
    • Kevin Clark
      Kevin Clark
      Chair and CEO
    • Varun Laroyia
      Varun Laroyia
      EVP and CFO
Analysts
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