Chemours Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 5, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Neutral Sentiment: Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations despite net sales falling slightly short, helped by pricing gains, better product mix and operational performance in Advanced Performance Materials (APM), plus lower corporate costs.
  • Negative Sentiment: Thermal & Specialized Solutions (TSS) faces continued weakness in residential and light-commercial aftermarket Opteon demand as distributors work through excess inventory from 2025 channel fill. Management expects third-quarter TSS sales to decline sequentially by 15% to 20% and EBITDA to be $125 million–$140 million.
  • Positive Sentiment: Titanium Technologies continues to offset inflation through pricing, with three TiO2 increases since December 2025 contributing to approximately 5% year-to-date price improvement. Third-quarter TT sales are expected to rise sequentially low-to-mid single digits, with EBITDA of $70 million–$80 million.
  • Positive Sentiment: APM’s Performance Solutions portfolio posted 8% year-over-year sales growth, supported by data center and semiconductor demand; product trials increased 70% year-over-year and initial sampling sales began for two-phase liquid-cooling applications. Management expects APM sales to increase sequentially in the third quarter as Washington Works returns to normal operations.
  • Positive Sentiment: Chemours reaffirmed 2026 sales growth of 1%–5% and adjusted EBITDA of $775 million–$825 million, while raising its free-cash-flow outlook to above 25% conversion. The company repaid nearly $270 million of its 2028 euro term loan in the quarter and continues targeting net leverage of about 3.8x EBITDA by year-end.
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Earnings Conference Call
Chemours Q2 2026
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Operator

Good morning. My name is Therese, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to The Chemours Company Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference call over to Brandon Ontjes, Vice President and Head of Strategy and Investor Relations for Chemours. You may begin.

Brandon Ontjes
Brandon Ontjes
VP and Head of Strategy and Investor Relations at Chemours

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to The Chemours Company's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by Denise Dignam, Chemours' President and Chief Executive Officer, and our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Shane Hostetter. Before we start, I would like to remind you that comments made on this call, as well as in the supplemental information provided on our website, contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties as described in Chemours' SEC filings. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that may not be realized. Actual results may differ, Chemours undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements as a result of future developments or new information. During this call, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful to investors evaluating the company's performance.

Brandon Ontjes
Brandon Ontjes
VP and Head of Strategy and Investor Relations at Chemours

A reconciliation of non-GAAP terms and adjustments is included in our press release issued yesterday evening. We posted our earnings presentation on our website yesterday evening as well. I will turn the call over to Denise Dignam.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Thank you, Brandon, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. On today's call, I'll start with highlights from our recent performance, turn it over to Shane to walk through our outlook for the third quarter and the balance of 2026. I'd like to share my reflections as we've reached our halfway point under Pathway to Thrive and discuss the opportunities ahead before we open the line for your questions. For the second quarter, our results reflect disciplined commercial execution, continued pricing actions, and progress against our priorities across all three businesses. Net sales were slightly below expectations, primarily due to softer residential stationary AC demand in thermal and specialized solutions. Pricing improved across all our businesses, including continued execution in Titanium Technologies.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, supported by stronger operational performance and an improved product mix in Advanced Performance Materials, lower corporate costs, and the referenced pricing strength in TT.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Importantly, we continue to see tangible evidence that the actions we are taking under Pathway to Thrive are strengthening the business. In TT, we announced an additional global TiO2 price increase effective June 1, building on prior pricing actions and supporting local price increases of approximately 5% year-to-date.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Separately, in APM's Performance Solutions portfolio, net sales grew 8% year-over-year, underscoring the momentum we are building in high-value specialty applications for data center and semiconductor end markets as we fulfill a backlog of existing orders. More recently, we also recorded nominal sales of two-phase liquid cooling products for sampling across two-phase applications with several customers.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

These early sales support continued progress through product trials, which have increased 70% year-over-year while reinforcing the relevance of our innovation pipeline in attractive growth markets. As an indication of the momentum in this space, recent research from the Uptime Institute, an industry-leading authority on data center infrastructure and operations, identified a growing share of operators evaluating two-phase systems for future deployments as AI-driven compute demands accelerate the shift towards liquid cooling.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Additionally, we continue to strengthen Chemours' financial position through strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation, enabling further debt reduction and enhancing our financial flexibility. We also made notable progress resolving legacy litigation, as demonstrated by our recent settlements with the U.S. EPA and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Collectively, these actions represent important steps to de-risk the balance sheet, improve leverage and cash positioning while enabling Chemours to invest with discipline in opportunities that support long-term value creation. Let me expand on the quarter's business activities.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Our TSS business delivered solid second quarter results. Net sales were slightly down versus the prior year quarter, driven by lower volumes from reduced aftermarket sales of Opteon blend in North America, while Opteon OEM volumes saw growth year-over-year in addition to continued growth into data center end markets. In the second quarter, that volume pressure was partially offset by higher pricing supported by strength in Freon refrigerants, primarily in automotive applications. It's important to note that the prior year quarter benefited from advanced demand tied to the initial aftermarket channel fill associated with the stationary AC transition under the U.S. AIM Act.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Given our advantaged position in the market, Chemours moved quickly to help ensure distributors and technicians were well supplied to support the new equipment installations. As a result of the initial channel fill, aftermarket customers built additional inventory, creating an oversupply channel heading into 2026. Today, while we continue to see strength in the OEM market, the aftermarket is working through elevated inventory levels.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

At the same time, residential demand is being pressured by higher interest rates, affordability challenges, and a slower housing market. Together, these factors weighed on second quarter order activity and may continue to drive destocking as we move through the year. Looking ahead, we would expect the aftermarket to begin normalizing as inventory levels are reduced and seasonal restocking begins ahead of next year's cooling season. Adjusted EBITDA for TSS increased year-over-year, with margins also expanding. This improvement was driven by higher pricing and benefited from the timing of certain costs in the quarter.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Overall, TSS continues to demonstrate the value of disciplined commercial execution and strong margin performance, even while facing some near-term weakness in the stationary aftermarket. In Titanium Technologies, the team continued to execute well in a challenging and inflationary market environment.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Second quarter net sales increased slightly versus the prior year quarter, driven primarily by global pricing strength. Pricing increased across all regions, reflecting the discipline and consistency of our commercial pricing approach in light of a dynamic demand environment. Volumes were lower across key end markets, with the exception of Asian markets, excluding China and Latin America, where demand remained more resilient in connection with recent antidumping duties in Brazil. Adjusted EBITDA for TT also improved year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA margin was flat.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

The increase was primarily driven by the global pricing strength noted earlier, partially offset by higher costs from inflation. Importantly, our performance shows that even as inflation continues to pressure the cost structure, the business is responding with strong commercial execution and disciplined cost management, outpacing any inflationary headwinds.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

We have now announced three TiO2 price increases since December 2025, including our most recent global increase effective June 1. Together, these actions have contributed to an approximately 5% year-to-date price increase relative to where we started the year. As we look ahead, our team remains agile and responsive with an optimized manufacturing circuit that enhances efficiency and flexibility, enabling us to adjust production levels to meet demand while continuing to deliver outstanding service and quality for our customers.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

This combination of disciplined pricing, operational flexibility, and customer focus positions TT to manage through a dynamic environment and capture value as opportunities emerge. In APM, second quarter net sales were down versus the prior year quarter, primarily driven by lower volumes associated with the SPS Capstone line closure completed in the third quarter of 2025. This was partially offset by higher pricing in the business.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Adjusted EBITDA declined year-over-year, reflecting the lower sales volumes from the line closure, as well as higher costs tied to the now resolved Washington Works outage. Notably, we continue to see strong momentum in the Performance Solutions portfolio, where net sales increased 8% year-over-year. Order book strength is driven by long-term sustainable demand tailwinds in data center and semiconductor end markets, where our specialty products play an important role in supporting complex and high-performance applications.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Performance Solutions is becoming a larger part of APM's portfolio, reinforcing our focus on higher-value markets with stronger growth and margin potential. As a point of emphasis, our exposure to high-growth markets is expanding across Chemours.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Sales into data center, semiconductor, AI, and advanced electronics end markets now represent a high single-digit percentage of total sales across APM and TSS, supported by strong demand for differentiated solutions in both businesses. Within Performance Solutions, more than 40% of sales are focused on these targeted markets, where we see durable demand trends and robust growth potential in the years ahead. Importantly, this does not include the investments we are making in liquid cooling and next-generation refrigerants, which we believe will further expand our participation in these attractive growth platforms.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Collectively, these dynamics position Chemours to participate more meaningfully in high-value applications that we believe can become a meaningful driver of overall earnings over time. With that, I'll turn it over to Shane to walk through our third quarter guide and our updated outlook for the full year 2026. Shane?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Thank you, Denise, and good morning, everyone. As shared in the earnings materials available on our investor website, I would now like to discuss our expectations for the third quarter and the remainder of the year as we look ahead.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Beginning with TSS. For the third quarter, we expect TSS's net sales to decline sequentially from the mid-teens to 20%. While we continue to see stability in overall OEM sales, we anticipate softer residential and light commercial aftermarket demand for our Opteon blends during the third quarter in connection with destocking trends in the aftermarket and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Consistent with our end market concentration, we expect seasonality as we progress through the Northern Hemisphere's cooling season. For the third quarter, we expect TSS's adjusted EBITDA to be between $125 million and $140 million, which considers seasonality as well as a less favorable mix from lower Opteon aftermarket sales.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Longer term, as seasonal restocking occurs in the aftermarket and the installed OEM base in residential and light commercial systems continue to expand in North America, we expect the business to return to GDP plus growth. That growth should also be supported by continued heat pump adoption in Europe, as well as rising global demand for data center chiller applications.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Overall, despite the softer near-term demand backdrop, we remain confident in the long-term fundamentals of this business, supported by our advantaged market position with OEMs and aftermarket distributors, regulatory tailwinds, and disciplined commercial execution. Going forward, we anticipate the stationary aftermarket to grow annually in the mid to high single-digit percentage range. This, combined with continued advancements in liquid cooling and our next-generation refrigerants, will act as growth catalysts for the future in TSS.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

For our TT business, in the third quarter, we expect TT's net sales to increase sequentially in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range, driven by continued execution of recent pricing announcements on modest year-over-year volume increases. We expect TT's adjusted EBITDA to range between $70 million and $80 million. This expected improvement reflects the momentum we are seeing from our commercial excellence efforts, which have led to realized pricing gains across the business.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Importantly, this pricing momentum is more than offsetting the cost and inflationary headwinds the business continues to face. It also demonstrates the value of our commercial discipline, customer focus, and ability to move quickly as market conditions change. While we anticipate some volume-driven seasonality as we exit the year, additionally, we anticipate volumes to be up year-over-year in the second half across all end markets outside of China.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Also, we expect continued cost productivity from operational improvements and broader cost reduction efforts to help keep earnings stable. Longer term, we remain focused on controlling what we can control. We continue to operate with commercial and operational agility, managing production to demand, optimizing the use of higher-cost inventory on-hand, which will drive notable earnings and cash flow productivity, and staying disciplined on price to protect value in a dynamic global TiO2 environment.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Turning now to our APM business. For the third quarter, we expect APM's net sales to increase sequentially in the mid to high single-digit percentage range. This top-line improvement is expected to be driven by a return to normal operating levels at Washington Works, along with continued strength in the Performance Solutions order book.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

We expect APM's adjusted EBITDA to be between $20 million and $30 million for the third quarter, which reflects approximately $5 million in performance that was pulled forward into the second quarter given sales timing. Within Performance Solutions, as Denise highlighted, we continue to see strong order book momentum for specialty products that address critical needs across the AI infrastructure ecosystem, including data center and semiconductor applications, which we anticipate will exceed 40% of these sales.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

These end markets are supported by durable demand trends and remain areas where Chemours is well-positioned to deliver differentiated material solutions. While broader industrial demand remains mixed, the strength in Performance Solutions reinforces our confidence in APM's path toward higher value growth. As we move through the balance of the year, we expect operational improvements and continued order book fulfillment in Performance Solutions, which will support anticipated earnings growth beyond the third quarter.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Longer term, we remain focused on shifting our portfolio mix to Performance Solutions, where we see continued order book strength in high-value data center and semiconductor end markets. Our ability to continue to drive operational improvements and sharpen our portfolio will increase our earnings opportunities and drive us past our expected $30 million to $40 million adjusted EBITDA range.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Looking to our consolidated outlook, we expect third quarter net sales to range from a decrease of 5% to flat sequentially. This reflects the referenced weaker demand in TSS' stationary aftermarket for Opteon blends, partially offset by continued pricing momentum in TT and sequential sales and cost improvements in APM. Our consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $175 million and $205 million for the third quarter. Corporate expenses are expected to be approximately $40 million-$45 million.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

We also anticipate capital expenditures to be in the range of $65 million with free cash flow at least $50 million, reflecting the timing of payments for plant turnaround activities commencing later in the third quarter.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Turning to the full year, we expect 2026 net sales to grow between 1% and 5% over 2025, with adjusted EBITDA growing to be between $775 million and $825 million. This outlook is supported by pricing momentum and ongoing cost improvements across each of our businesses. As highlighted for the third quarter, continued destocking of our Opteon blends in the aftermarket will impact TSS. This headwind is expected to be partially offset by strength in TT from pricing and cost improvements, as well as APM's operational resilience and demand strength in higher value end markets as the year progresses.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Capital expenditures are expected to be between $250 million and $280 million for the full year, with free cash flow conversion above 25%, reflecting higher earnings and improvements in working capital throughout the year. We also continue to anticipate achieving a net leverage ratio around 3.8x adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026, further positioning us towards our longer-term goal of being sustainably below three times net leverage.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

As Denise mentioned, we have continued to prioritize debt repayment using both organic cash flow as well as the proceeds received to date from the Kuan Yin land sale. In the second quarter, we repaid close to $270 million of our 2028 Euro term loan, which represents an additional $103 million beyond what was communicated on our first quarter call.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

We intend to continue to prioritize debt reduction as a key element of our capital allocation strategy in order to enhance the overall strength of Chemours's balance sheet. This work is fundamental to executing against the four pillars of our Pathway to Thrive strategy and allows us flexibility for the longer term. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Denise for her closing remarks.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Thank you, Shane. As we close, it's worth taking a step back and recognizing where we are on our journey. We are now roughly halfway through our Pathway to Thrive strategy, which makes this a good moment to reflect on what we've accomplished and just as importantly, where we're headed. Looking back, Pathway to Thrive was never simply a cost, productivity, or restructuring program. We undertook it to strengthen the foundation of Chemours, improve the resilience of the company, and create strategic portfolio options that can maximize value for our shareholders.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

As evidenced by our results, we've made significant progress taking decisive actions to strengthen and de-risk our balance sheet while advancing our portfolio transformation. At the same time, we've continued to establish a stronger operating model through the application of lean principles, driving the discipline, capabilities, and culture that will support long-term performance.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

The progress is real and it's undeniable. There's still work ahead. As we move past this halfway point, we will continue to execute with urgency and pursue opportunities that enhance our strategic and portfolio optionality, including transformational partnerships and actions to reshape our existing portfolio. The work we have done has created a stronger foundation and greater flexibility to act. We will build on that momentum by expanding our strategic choices, strengthening our portfolio, and positioning Chemours to deliver greater long-term value for shareholders.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

I want to be clear, no portfolio action is off the table where we see an opportunity to unlock a step change in value creation for our shareholders. Moving forward, what gives me confidence is the trajectory we're creating for Chemours. We have three market-leading businesses, differentiated solutions, and solid positions in attractive end markets.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Combined with the progress under Pathway to Thrive, these strengths are creating a stronger foundation and expanding the opportunities ahead of us. Across Chemours, our talented people are embracing new ways of working, building a culture of continuous improvement and bringing a passion to win every day.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Together, we are creating a company that is stronger, more resilient, and increasingly positioned to have greater strategic optionality. I'm excited about what the future holds. We have more to accomplish, more value to unlock, and more opportunities ahead of us than behind us. The choices available to Chemours today are meaningfully different than they were when we launched Pathway to Thrive, and I believe the actions we take on our priorities can create substantial value for our shareholders. We look forward to sharing that progress with you as we continue to execute our strategy and realize the full potential of Chemours.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

In closing, from our core businesses, we are confident that steadfast execution of our strategy can deliver a business with at least $1 billion of annual adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow conversion exceeding 40%, while progressively de-risking the balance sheet. These efforts are already driving results today and will create greater financial and strategic flexibility. With that, I'd like to open the line for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile a Q&A roster. Our first question today is from Peter Osterland with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Peter Osterland
Peter Osterland
Analyst at Truist Securities

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to start with the margins implied in the third quarter TSS guide. The midpoints imply a high 20s margin for third quarter below the 30 that you've talked about historically. I guess could you rank order what the drivers are here between mix and input costs, overall cost absorption, and I guess more broadly, do you expect this margin level to be a one-quarter occurrence with a snapback, or is it more likely resetting the baseline here with gradual improvement thereafter?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Hey, Peter. Thank you. I appreciate the perspectives here. I don't look at the margins sequentially from Q2 to Q3. I kind of look at it compared to prior year. Certainly, we'd be guiding to lower margins, and really this goes hand in hand with the discussions we had on the script, whereby we're seeing really slower business in the aftermarket, specifically in residential and commercial in TSS. That's really a mix attribute. That's really the predominant driver there. As I look ahead, going to your latter point and question of where this is going, seasonally, Q4 margins tend to be a little bit on the downside, just given the mix of seasonality of refrigerants versus FPL.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

We still stand behind that this business is a 30+ margin business, and as we look ahead into 2027, we will see some restocking of that aftermarket, which will help mix happen that side. I think more importantly is we're very excited about the market of the aftermarket on this side, and you see the potential impact they have on the actual margins themselves, and really see it as a growth business going forward.

Peter Osterland
Peter Osterland
Analyst at Truist Securities

Very helpful. Thanks. I guess just a follow-up on that point on mix. Could you size what proportion of your Opteon sales are made up by the stationary aftermarket business, and how much are you assuming that business will be down year-over-year in your third quarter guidance?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Thanks. We haven't really talked a lot about the actual sizing of the aftermarket from this perspective. As we think about quantifying how much it's down, last year, you might recall, we had really sizable sales into the aftermarket given the transition under the AIM Act. We believe from a Q2 and Q3 perspective, there's probably about $65 million of aftermarket sales that realistically, you think about like for like, probably should have been allocated to more of this year. It was just more pre-buy, given some of the overall inventory constraints in the market that we took advantage of and supplied. Like for like, I think if you look at Q2, Q3 comparatively year-over-year, there's probably about a $65 million balance.

Peter Osterland
Peter Osterland
Analyst at Truist Securities

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Duffy Fischer with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Duffy Fischer
Duffy Fischer
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Good morning. Another question on TSS. With the, whatever you want to call it, the pre-sales from last year, does that mean that we need to anniversary falling sales from this aftermarket stationary business through the first quarter of next year? Or how long does it take for that to correct before you get back to kind of selling in what you're selling out?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Hi, Duffy. Hey, thanks for the question. I think that's a good way to look at it. I think you should look at this transition, really the transition of the technology over 2025 and 2026, and then really picking back up in next season in the end of the Q1 of 2027.

Duffy Fischer
Duffy Fischer
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. If we jump to TT, surprisingly, the Chinese exports, given their sulfur costs and stuff like that, have remained quite high year to date. When you look at collectively, I think the numbers that you guys put up, that KRONOS and Tronox will put up, plus the Chinese, year-over-year, that supply to the world is running much faster than what the end markets, paint and some other construction stuff seems to be growing. Where is that product going? Was there low inventory, so people are rebuilding inventory? Or how is the production and sales volume of TiO2 kind of running ahead of end consumption in your view?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Yeah. Thanks for the question. As we've talked about, we're focused on the fair trade markets where our customers value what we bring to the table. Obviously, there were disruptions with the war, and our customers really count on reliability. What we see is in those fair trade markets, we see a pretty balanced market and our ability to maintain our share.

Duffy Fischer
Duffy Fischer
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Drew Klauber with Mizuho Securities. Your line is open.

John Roberts
John Roberts
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Let me just check. This is John Roberts. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes, we can.

John Roberts
John Roberts
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Oh, good. Okay, thank you. The refrigerants aftermarket is very fragmented, a lot of small service providers. How much visibility do you actually have into the inventory of those small customers?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Thanks for the question, John. I guess what I want to say is that we're market leaders here, right? We have the majority of the share. We feel like we have good visibility into this market. Clearly, as you think about last year, there was mixed signals from the channel on what the demand would be this year. I think there are two things that have happened when we think about this year.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Shane mentioned it earlier. As we've gotten into the year, we had a colder spring in the Northeast, which definitely impacts demand. The macro environment with the war, really, affordability concerns with consumers has distributors holding back. I guess really just high level, we think we have good visibility into the market and with our leadership position.

John Roberts
John Roberts
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

What's causing the price strength in Freon? Is it something related to the emission allowances or something related to costs?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Hey, John. Yeah. You might remember in Q1, we talked a little bit about overall mix shift. This is really into more of the automotive aftermarket and strength there that we've been able to take. That continued into Q2 on that side. Just overall mix shift is where the pricing opportunity has gone.

John Roberts
John Roberts
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Okay, it's mixed. It's not raising like for like prices.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

We feel like it's a mix to a higher priced product that we've taken advantage to.

John Roberts
John Roberts
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global Advisors. Your line is open.

Hassan Ahmed
Hassan Ahmed
Analyst at Alembic Global Advisors

Morning, Denise and Shane. A question around your full year guidance. If I sort of take the midpoint of the Q3 guidance, it seems that you guys are sort of forecasting midpoint obviously being $190 million for Q3, and it seems you guys are guiding to a range of, call it $170 million to maybe $220 million for Q4. Just trying to understand in an otherwise seasonally weak quarter that is Q4, what gives you guys the confidence of that sequential step up from Q3 to Q4 EBITDA?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Thanks, Hassan. I think your observation's correct that we do anticipate a strong Q4 on the backs of really strengthened TT and APM comparatively to the prior quarters, with seasonality still in effect given TSS obviously will have lower volumes in the quarter, as well as some slightly lower volumes in TT.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

The strength in TT really is on the backs of some pricing, obviously tailwinds that we're seeing in the market, but also we have line of sight into really good cost improvements within TT that we anticipate coming through in the fourth quarter, both on input costs as well as operational. On APM, you obviously have seen we've had some lighter EBITDA in the first three quarters that we're anticipating compared to where we really would like the business to be.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Those are on the backs of some obviously downtime at our Washington Works facility and related impacts. As we think about Q4, we've talked about how strong the order book is in APM on really great end markets with product mix that is advantageous to us. It's that, and then it's also the first three quarters really were impacted by higher costs that we're seeing in inventory that were coming through, given the absorption related to Washington Works. We're not going to see that in the fourth quarter. It's a mix of both really strong portfolio in APM as well as improved costs, as well as just really good tailwinds in TT.

Hassan Ahmed
Hassan Ahmed
Analyst at Alembic Global Advisors

Very helpful. As a follow-up on TT, can you guys talk a bit about what you guys are seeing on the cost curves? Obviously, we keep hearing about elevated sulfuric acid prices, availability of sulfuric acid being obviously a concern as well. What role is that playing in facilitating some of the price hikes that you guys are implementing? Part and parcel with that, are you guys seeing potential rationalizations or accelerated rationalizations in China on the back of where the cost curves are?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Thanks for the question, Hassan. Relative to cost curves, there's no doubt with the input costs of sulfur increasing that that's causing an increase in cost for sulfate-produced TiO2. This trend was actually happening even before the war, it's only been exacerbated. We see that continue. Do we see fundamental rationalization? Not per se, certainly it's helpful from a pricing standpoint. As I mentioned before, our focus is on fair trade markets and where we know our customers value what we provide, and there's less of a, I'll say, competition from a Chinese perspective.

Hassan Ahmed
Hassan Ahmed
Analyst at Alembic Global Advisors

Very helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Josh Spector with UBS. Your line is open.

Josh Spector
Josh Spector
Analyst at UBS

Yeah, hi. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on TSS again. Just at a high level, it seems like initially you thought TSS would grow EBITDA by about $50 million. Now your guidance, I'm assuming for the year, is kind of flat to down. Following up on some of the prior questions where you talk about aftermarket visibility and your position, it just seems like expectations changed quite materially over the last quarter. What surprised to really drive that, where we're talking about a year ago we should have known this, but now we're baking that in. It just seems like something more changed under the hood than what your answers implied previously.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Hey, thanks for the question, Josh. First of all, I just want to be clear, this isn't a significant change in the market size for this year, right? When we think about what the volume in the aftermarket was last year versus this year, we see about a 25% drop. Your question is, well, what's changed? As I said earlier, we were getting signals from the channel about demand this year. As we got into the year and we saw what was happening with the colder spring, we did signal that we were starting to see a slower start to the season, maybe the end of the first quarter.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

As we started to see that with the cold weather as well as the war, just thinking about consumer discretion and being able to make choices of whether you put in a new system or you repair, and distributors really not taking a risk on premium products. It's really something that has evolved, I would say, over the second quarter, and we've adjusted our forecast.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Yeah, I would just tag on to that, Josh. As I think about where we believed we were going into this year, the TT business has really outperformed where we expected coming into the year, and we thought the balance of the portfolio would help itself, seeing a little bit of a delay in that aftermarket start, but also seeing really price strength in TT maybe offsetting some of that delay.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Yeah. The fundamentals are there for this market. Basically, you had a whole market turnover with a technology transition where you've gone from many suppliers to just two. I think you need to just look at it at 2025, 2026. That's really a transition. It's hard to read those tea leaves when a technology changes in that way. We feel extremely positive about this business. We've said that it's a GDP plus growth business. When you look at the aftermarket, there's a huge growth platform with high single-digit growth in the coming years.

Josh Spector
Josh Spector
Analyst at UBS

Yeah, I guess maybe if you could help a little bit. It's just the tone is different between you and your larger competitor that talked about gains in the aftermarket mix up in the second half. This seems more like share shift between one player versus another, maybe in addition to destocking. Can you comment on that? Is there a view about why your mix would be pretty materially different here?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Yeah. First of all, I'm not going to talk about what competitors say and what they do, but all I know is that last year we had significant share, and we were able to supply a market when others weren't. There's a huge difference in comparatives. If you look at some of the comments that were made, the aftermarket for stationary is viewed as an upside in the second half. That's not something that has occurred to date. I think there's a different comp between the two companies.

Josh Spector
Josh Spector
Analyst at UBS

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Arun Viswanathan
Arun Viswanathan
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Great. Excuse me. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe I could ask another question on TSS as well. Thanks for the slides on data center use cases. Very interesting stuff here. If you think about TSS when you step back, I think you mentioned a $1 billion of EBITDA longer term. Could you provide us maybe some bridge items to get from, say, $800 million in 2026 to that $1 billion level? Does that kind of include maybe $200 million from data center by the end of the decade? Or what's the longer-term opportunity as you see it, including the two-phase immersion cooling products that you discussed on those slides as well?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Thanks, Arun. Yeah, no, we're very excited to say that $1 billion target with the 40% free cash flow. As I think about, you mentioned bridging items. Denise talked about in her script, just excitements around different end markets, around AI infrastructure, whether it be in data center, semiconductors, advanced electronics. Right now, it's about 9% of our overall TSS and APM portfolio. We anticipate large growth in those markets ahead of us, and obviously those are advantage market positions, so that'll be key contributors going forward. I would say other bridge items, we'll continue to execute on pricing across each one of the businesses.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Also, obviously, we're in a little bit of a cyclical downside on certain businesses where it will bring considerable volume in the base business as well. I would say outside of that, it's really continuing to control what we control.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

From a cost-out perspective, making sure we're optimizing performance. We're really excited about Chemours' business systems and the lean principles there too, which really would drive more operational reliability. We believe there's a lot of area there to drive really efficient costs. I would say, I think I'm equally excited around cash flow characteristics of this business.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

This quarter, we were above 40% from a free cash flow perspective. We continue to think through opportunities to drive that attribute. As earnings grow, those will grow as well, but we're excited also to work on the balance sheet and unlock further working capital opportunities similar to what we've talked about before with some of the high-grade order contracts in TT.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Maybe to build on that, Arun, when we talk about these high growth areas in AI infrastructure, we also have to talk about one of the elements is liquid cooling. We put some things in this script. It really gives us a really good indication of the market traction that we're starting to see, and there are upsides. Liquid cooling as well as our work in next generation refrigerant, NGR, are upsides to that $1 billion case.

Arun Viswanathan
Arun Viswanathan
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thanks for that. Just, again, just from a composition standpoint, would that $1 billion require maybe mid-cycle assumptions for TT, say, in the annualized run rate of, say, $300 million-$400 million of EBITDA, and then you're thinking maybe $160 or so for APM and maybe $800 for TSS offset by corporate? How are you thinking about that $1 billion composition from a segment basis? Then also, as I mentioned earlier, what's the target for that? From a time frame, is that end of the decade, or is there a line of sight to when you'd achieve that level? Thanks.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Thanks, Arun. Yeah, I really appreciate you mapping that out. I'm not going to get into specifics as regards to each number for the company. I reflect and think through, yeah, I think there's a floor mid-cycle, call it over $400 for TT. That's going to help get there. I think there's attributes to really build upon APM. As we've talked about exiting this year, really strengthen the order book and operational resilience. TSS continues to be really a good growth momentum business off that side. As it relates to timing, can't get into that, but I do believe in the coming years you'll see us hit these targets.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Arun, just to build on that, for TT, a thing to remember is that there are structural cost changes coming with ore and chlorine that are not yet visible in our earnings.

Arun Viswanathan
Arun Viswanathan
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you, Arun. Our next question is from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hey, good morning. This is Caleb Bon for John. Just to follow up on Josh's question about what's kind of changed since the start of the year. Some of your HVAC OEM customers have raised their unit outlooks for the start of the year. Can you just square how they're raising their outlook, but then you're talking about a slowdown happening? It just intuitively isn't really making a lot of sense.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Thanks, Caleb. What you have to remember is that our sales into OEMs or the OEM sales, our aftermarket sales are actually once the distributors, it's actually the unit is put in operation. Could we see some upside in the fourth quarter? Potentially, but we think it's likely going to be more next year just because of the time difference.

Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Got you. Maybe just on the data center opportunity, is there a way to frame your content in either like a dollar basis or a kilogram basis for the same data center that would be using single-phase direct-to-chip, two-phase direct-to-chip, and two-phase immersion cooling?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Just to be clear, liquid cooling has taken off in data centers. It's not two-phase. What you see today is the single phase. There is not, today, any share in the commercial market. That's all upside. The thing that we've talked about is that as we think about the AI infrastructure and the things where we participate, today in APM, we have about 40% of our Performance Solutions portfolio is towards that end market. If you look at TSS and APM together, it's a high single digits of the total sales that are in that AI infrastructure space. Anything related to liquid cooling data centers would be on top of that, and it's part of the robust growth that we see.

Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Vincent Andrews
Vincent Andrews
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thank you, and good morning. Sticking with the liquid cooling. Denise, could you just talk about what your route or routes to market might be in liquid cooling and just looking sort of at the broader industry structure? There seems to be a lot of consolidation and vertical integration going on there. Would you be a supplier to one of the big integrated folks, or would you be selling directly to the data center customer, or how would this work?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Thanks, Vincent. It's a good question. Yeah. The way this works is, first of all, this is a, as you said, is a complicated value chain, lots of different players. We really have to, I'll say, sell across the value chain. You saw our announcements around Samsung qualification. We're working with other hyperscalers. We have to first kind of get scoped in or specked into the architecture for the design of the data center. We also work with the OEMs that are putting in equipment, similar as we do currently in our refrigeration market. Where will the sales be made? Ultimately, it's going to be really the specific sale is going to be to the OEM, but it's going to be pull through specifications across the ecosystem.

Vincent Andrews
Vincent Andrews
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay. As a follow-up for Shane, I guess kind of a two-part question on free cash flow. One, you were able to actually increase the free cash flow guidance for the year despite the reduction in EBITDA. Sounds like it's some working capital and some other timing issues. Are those going to reverse in 2027 and make a harder comp on free cash flow? Separately, you talked about the long-term goal of 40%. Is there something that limits 40% as the free cash flow conversion level? Is it you're baking in some potential litigation payments over time or just other contingencies? What is it that would make 40% the ceiling on free cash flow conversion?

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Thanks, Vincent. Very excited about free cash flow characteristics of the year. We continue to really make sure we're prioritizing that cash inflow. Above 25% was the guide for this year. I think as you were asking, is there anything that are one-time oriented in nature? We do have some large cash this year on this side, which will help with the overall free cash flow. At the same point, I think we're very focused into next year, and we don't believe we'll take a sizable decline. We are focused really on improving the free cash flow characteristics of this business. As it relates to 40% and areas around, you call it the ceiling. I said, I would tell you it's at 40%+ right? Where we believe we can take this business.

Shane Hostetter
Shane Hostetter
SVP and CFO at Chemours

Notably, yes, in that perspective, we will have existing settlements that are paid over multiple periods. For instance, New Jersey is over 25 years on that side. We also have, obviously, ongoing environmental and other legal costs that weigh that down. You have other areas that are right off the top as far as conversion, whether that be the interest costs that we're paying, taxes, or obviously CapEx. We're mindful of all these areas that are weighing down the free cash flow conversion, and our job is to really focus and improve upon them.

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from Aaron Rosenthal with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Aaron Rosenthal
Aaron Rosenthal
Analyst at JPMorgan

Good morning, and thanks for the time. Are you willing to elaborate at all on the strategic portfolio comments mentioned just ahead of the Q&A session? Just curious if there was any unsolicited inbound from a third party, or if there's some sort of momentum on efforts driven by Chemours.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Hey, Aaron. Thanks for the question. I think first I want to take a step back and say, well, why are we even talking about it? Kind of reflective, right? We're halfway through Pathway to Thrive, I thought it was a great time to step back and to talk with our shareholders about why did we develop this strategy. The Pathway to Thrive pillars were designed to solidify the foundation of the company to create optionality for us. We've improved our balance sheet, de-risking our liabilities, improving our cash flow, growing into high-value applications, improving our operational and commercial performance. All of these things are what's helping us build to a stronger balance sheet that gives us that optionality.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

I'm not going to speculate on any specific actions that we're considering or that we would take. It really is just to assure our shareholders that there's no portfolio action that's off the table that would create step-change value for the company. That really, the Pathway to Thrive, it really gets us to the point to be able to make those kind of decisions. You can see it could be around product lines or assets. It could be strategic partnerships. We've already announced some of those. It's really about taking a step back, really taking a high-level view of why are we doing Pathway to Thrive and what is it going to accomplish for us.

Aaron Rosenthal
Aaron Rosenthal
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay. Totally fair. It was a worth question. Then maybe just one on APM. Are there any updates on the permitting front side to the Washington Works site? I'm just curious if there's any lingering uncertainty on that front, maybe how that is baked into guidance from a utilization assumption perspective.

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Yeah, we don't have any uncertainty relative to that. I think it's telling that as we did the EPA settlement, it was commented by many parties of the importance of that site just for many different applications, critical applications for fluoropolymers when it comes to national security and defense. We have strong support for operation of that site.

Aaron Rosenthal
Aaron Rosenthal
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay, just to verify, I think there was a permit expiry in July that was cited in the 10-Q. Has that been resolved?

Denise Dignam
Denise Dignam
President and CEO at Chemours

Yes, it has.

Aaron Rosenthal
Aaron Rosenthal
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. Thank you for joining the Chemours Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

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