Valvoline Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 5, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Strong third-quarter performance: System-wide sales rose 19% to more than $1 billion, same-store sales increased 8%, EBITDA grew 25% to $162 million, and EPS rose 21% to $0.57. EBITDA margin expanded 30 basis points to 29.8%, supported by transaction growth and SG&A leverage.
  • Positive Sentiment: Valvoline raised its full-year same-store sales outlook to 7.5%-8% and narrowed adjusted EBITDA guidance to $550 million-$560 million and EPS guidance to $1.70-$1.75. Year-to-date free cash flow increased approximately $93 million, leverage declined to 2.8x, and debt repricing is expected to reduce annual interest expense by about $1.8 million.
  • Negative Sentiment: Lubricant cost inflation is intensifying: Group III base-oil constraints tied to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push finished lubricant costs roughly 60% above March levels, or $5-$7 more per oil change. Management expects this pressure to drive roughly 300-400 basis points of EBITDA margin compression in the fourth quarter, with elevated costs potentially lasting at least four to six months after the strait fully reopens.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Customer demand remained resilient, with transaction growth and no broad signs of trade-down or service deferral, although lower-income households showed more moderate growth in June and non-oil-change service penetration softened seasonally. Management is monitoring pricing elasticity while using consumer pricing and operational discipline to protect gross-profit dollars.
  • Positive Sentiment: Network expansion and the Breeze integration are progressing well: Valvoline added 47 net new stores in the quarter to reach 2,456 locations, while 12 Breeze stores have been converted and are performing slightly ahead of expectations. Management said the Breeze deal thesis, return expectations, and early cost synergies remain intact.
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Earnings Conference Call
Valvoline Q3 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, welcome to Valvoline's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Elizabeth Clevinger, Investor Relations. Elizabeth, please go ahead.

Elizabeth Clevinger
Elizabeth Clevinger
Investor Relations Contact at Valvoline

Thank you. Good morning, welcome to Valvoline's third quarter fiscal 2026 conference call and webcast. This morning, Valvoline released results for the third quarter ended June 30th, 2026. This presentation should be viewed in conjunction with that earnings release, a copy of which is available on our investor relations website at investors.valvoline.com. Please note that these results are preliminary until we file our Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission. On this morning's call is Lori Flees, our President and CEO, Kevin Willis, our CFO. As shown in the accompanying presentation, any of our remarks today that are not statements of historical fact are Forward-Looking statements. These Forward-Looking statements are based on current assumptions as of the date of this presentation and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from such statements.

Elizabeth Clevinger
Elizabeth Clevinger
Investor Relations Contact at Valvoline

Valvoline assumes no obligation to update any Forward-Looking statements unless required by law. In this presentation, in our remarks, we will be discussing our results on an adjusted non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation of our GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP results, a discussion of management's use of non-GAAP and key business measures is included in the presentation appendix. With that, I will turn it over to Lori.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Thanks, Elizabeth, thank you all for joining us this morning. We delivered another good quarter with sales and profit growth in line with our expectations. The team continues to manage the business effectively through the changing supply and macro environment. Our results demonstrate the strength, resilience, and growth in our business. On the top line, system-wide store sales increased 19%, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a quarter. System-wide same-store sales grew 8%. Across the system, we saw growth in both transactions and ticket, with ticket contributing more than three-quarters of the comp. All three components of ticket, net pricing, premiumization, and NOCR service penetration contributed. Net price was the largest contributor, given the pricing actions that were taken. Similar to last quarter, franchise was above the system average. For the quarter, EBITDA grew faster than sales, with SG&A leverage improving.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Before Kevin talks through the financials, I want to spend a moment on the operating environment as it relates to supply. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the global oil supply chain and specific to our category, has constrained the supply of Group III base oil, a key component of full synthetic lubricants. We expect this industry-wide supply constraint to persist over the medium term and beyond the initial reopening of the strait. We are in a differentiated position. Our scale, combined with the strategic relationship we have with our supplier, gives us reliable access to product. Absent a significant change in the environment, we do not have supply concerns today, and we do not anticipate any in the near term. That said, constrained supply across the market has elevated finished lubricant costs.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

We saw costs begin to rise in the third quarter. They continued to increase as we moved into the fourth quarter. Based on the current forecasts, we expect finished lubricant costs could be approximately 60% above where they were in March. While that sounds significant, let me clarify that means we expect a total increase of approximately $5-$7 per oil change, depending on the lubricant type, relative to the March period. Our teams are actively managing this cost dynamic through consumer pricing and operational discipline. Both company and franchisees have taken pricing actions in the third quarter. While we wait for the strait to fully reopen, we are managing through the current environment effectively with both the short and long term in mind. On the customer front, we feel good about the overall health of the business.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Across the system, we saw transaction growth in the quarter. Broadly no signs of trade down or deferral of services. That said, we did see pockets of pressure in June, with more moderate growth among lower income households and some softness in NOCR penetration, similar to what we typically see in the summer drive season. Overall, our customer has remained resilient. We continue to see steady demand for the non-discretionary services we provide. We are watching consumer behavior closely across the network. We continue to invest in strengthening our brand and attracting new customers. As the summer drive season got underway, we launched a new marketing campaign, The Ride Wrangler. This fresh platform reinforces Valvoline as a trusted preventative maintenance partner. Anchored by the tagline "Change wisely," the campaign increases brand relevance and consumer engagement while highlighting the quick, easy, trusted service we offer.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

It can be seen and heard across our full marketing mix, from national advertising to local marketing, giving us broad reach as we invite more drivers to change wisely and choose Valvoline. A quick update on Breeze. The overall performance of the Breeze business continues to be at or above expectations. The overall deal thesis and return expectations we shared at the December investor update remain intact. As of Q3, we have converted 12 stores to the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand. While it's still early, the performance of the converted stores is slightly ahead of expectations. Turning to network growth, we added 47 net new stores in the quarter, bringing our overall network to 2,456 stores. We continue to have a strong pipeline for both company and franchise additions. In summary, we delivered a good quarter.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

I'm proud of our team's strong execution as we navigate a challenging macro backdrop. We remain focused on delivering quick, easy, trusted service to our guests while creating value for our shareholders. The actions we're taking to mitigate the current environment are strengthening profitability across the system, enhancing free cash flow generation, and positioning Valvoline for sustainable long-term growth. With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin to provide more detail on our Q3 financial performance and rest of year guidance.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everyone. A summary of our financial results is included in the presentation. Let's talk through the highlights. We delivered top-line growth in line with our expectations with net sales of $545 million, a 24% increase over the prior year. This growth reflects a combination of continued momentum in our core business and the contribution from Breeze, which performed in line with our expectations. A gross margin rate of 40% decreased 50 basis points year-over-year. We saw favorability in product costs this quarter offset by higher other service delivery costs, including the impact of new store depreciation. Excluding the impact of depreciation, the gross margin rate would have improved by 10 basis points. As Lori mentioned, we continue to see finished lubricant costs increase. Our focus remains on protecting gross profit dollars while maintaining reliable supply across the system.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

The product cost favorability we realized in the quarter reflects pricing actions taken slightly ahead of the impact of finished lubricant cost increases. We have taken additional pricing actions as lubricant costs have continued to increase. It's also important to recognize that finished lubricant costs are currently increasing at a faster rate than movements in the base oil index would suggest. While the index remains a useful market reference point, supplier costs today reflect broader industry conditions, including tight Group III base oil supply, inventory replenishment, and other factors across the supply chain. As a result, the index is understating the cost pressure the industry is seeing in the market today. SG&A, as a percent of net sales, decreased 90 basis points year-over-year to 17%, from a combination of increased transactions from the summer drive season and continued cost discipline across the business.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

We remain focused on improving operating leverage while continuing to support the growth of the business and navigating the macro environment. EBITDA increased 25% to $162 million, with margin expanding 30 basis points to 29.8%, while EPS increased 21% to $0.57 per share. We had planned for about 100 basis points of EBITDA margin compression for the full-year and now expect closer to half that amount. Year-to-date, operating cash flows improved $105 million-$285 million, and free cash flow was $112 million, an increase of approximately $93 million over last year. We used a portion of that cash to pay down debt in the June quarter, reflecting our continued focus on strengthening the balance sheet. Our leverage ratio now stands at 2.8 times on a net debt to adjusted EBITDA basis, a sequential decline of approximately 10%.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

We remain focused on bringing leverage back within our target range and restarting share repurchases. We also completed a repricing of our Term Loan B during the quarter, which will improve our annual cash interest expense by approximately $1.8 million based on the current balance. We delivered a strong quarter reflecting disciplined execution, profitable growth, EBITDA margin expansion, and improved free cash flow. Let's turn to our outlook for the remainder of the year, which includes our expectations for the fourth quarter. First, we are raising our full-year system-wide same-store sales expectations to a range of 7.5%-8%. This increase reflects the pricing measures we've taken so far. We are narrowing our adjusted EBITDA and EPS ranges to $550 million-$560 million and $1.70-$1.75 per share, respectively. While the macro and supply environment remains dynamic, the fundamentals of our business have not changed.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Preventive maintenance is a non-discretionary service. Our customer has remained resilient, and our team continues to execute well. We are confident in the durability of our model and our ability to deliver profitable growth and long-term value for our shareholders, even as we navigate near-term cost pressure. I'll now turn it back over to Lori to wrap up.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Thanks, Kevin. To wrap up, we delivered a strong quarter. I'm proud of how our team continues to manage the business effectively through a changing supply and macro environment. We remain confident in the resilience of our business model and the durability of customer demand. I want to thank our team members and franchisees. Their dedication and execution are what enables us to keep delivering V-class service to our guests quarter after quarter. As we look forward to the end of the year, we're also celebrating two important milestones. This year marks the 40th anniversary of Valvoline being in the retail services business and the 10th anniversary of becoming a standalone, publicly traded company.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Over the past decade alone, we've grown our network from just over 1,000 stores to nearly 2,500, a testament to the strength of our model, the long-term value we've built for our shareholders, and the passion of our people and franchisees. I'll now turn it back over to Elizabeth to begin Q&A.

Elizabeth Clevinger
Elizabeth Clevinger
Investor Relations Contact at Valvoline

Thanks, Lori. Before we start the Q&A, I want to remind everyone to limit your question to one and a follow-up. With that, the operator can please open the line.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality, and if you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Mark Jordan with Goldman Sachs. Mark, please go ahead.

Mark Jordan
Mark Jordan
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hey, good morning. Congrats on another great quarter here. Thank you for taking my questions. To start, can we just dig into the full-year guidance a little bit? I think it implies 4Q comp trends are roughly similar to 3Q, maybe a little better there. The EBITDA margins are in the 25% range. I understand there's some seasonality in 4Q. What are the big drivers of sequentially softer margins there?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Hey, Mark. This is Kevin. Thanks for the question. I would say that we're really pleased with how the team has executed year-to-date and continues to execute in Q4. As I think we can all appreciate, the macro remains very dynamic. That said, the fundamentals of the business haven't changed. We're very pleased with where we are. As we look at Q4, really the math is all around what we have baked into the full-year guide around product cost increases, us covering those with price that we started taking in the June quarter and continued into this quarter as well. It's really about our focus on protecting gross profit dollars and the impact of that is, as you correctly calculated, the midpoint of the range, that would imply 300 basis points-400 basis points in margin compression in the September quarter.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

That would be really all product cost related impacts. We don't really see any other significant impacts to the business. As we look at SG&A year-over-year, we would expect to gain some leverage on the SG&A front as we have been doing throughout the course of the year. We're managing costs very well when it comes to that. It really comes down to what Lori mentioned. As much as a 60% finished lubricant cost increase, $5-$7 for oil change, and making sure that we do what we need to do to cover that in the quarter. That's what's driving the margin.

Mark Jordan
Mark Jordan
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Excellent. Thank you very much. Just as one follow-up, can you talk about the SG&A leverage in 3Q? It looks like the largest benefit maybe came from the other G&A expenses. Can you break down what's included in that bucket and maybe how we should think about it in 4Q?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Yeah. Just as a reminder, Q3 tends to be our strongest quarter every year. We drive more transactions. It's the peak of the summer drive season. That does tend to help us on the leverage front. The team did a really nice job from an execution perspective around SG&A. We've been really focused on that since we got through and passed making the SG&A investments that we needed to make in the business. Really it's been a concerted effort to manage our overall cost profile across the board, and the team's done a really nice job with that.

Mark Jordan
Mark Jordan
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Excellent. Thank you very much. Congrats again on a great quarter.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citi. Steven, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Analyst at Citi

Hi. This is Ariana on for Steven Zaccone. Thanks so much for taking our question. My first question is, can you provide more detail on the extent to which pricing actions can continue to offset these increases, without negatively impacting customer traffic?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah, thanks for the question. Overall, when we look at least on the product cost side there's two things that we do. One is we try to time pricing increases on the company store side as well as the franchise product cost pass-through, to offset those increases. We always do pricing elasticity work to know exactly what we expect consumers to do. Now, we're not doing this in a vacuum. The entire industry is facing the same product cost or product constraints that I talked about and the commensurate product inflation that comes with constrained supply. We're not doing that in a vacuum. If you look at the $5-$7 number that I talked about on a base ticket of $115 on average or higher for some of our franchisees, that's actually a very small percentage of increase.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Given our customers come back to us twice a year, on an annual basis, it's not a significant out-of-pocket cost when you compare that to foregoing maintenance and the potential risk that you take for bigger repairs. Obviously we look at that and we watch consumer sentiment and we watch consumer return rates. We watch consumer discount usage. All of those things factor into it, as we look at passing price on to consumers.

Analyst at Citi

Great. Thank you so much. My follow-up is, despite raising the floor for consumer sales by 20-50 basis points, the top end of the total revenue remains the same. I guess what specific revenue offsets are presenting a corresponding increase in the net revenue?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Yeah. What I would point out is we actually did raise the midpoint of the full-year sales guide from $2 billion, $2.1 billion-$2.05 billion-$2.1 billion. Effectively it's a $25 million increase in the midpoint. Again, we're very focused on providing an update that we feel confident and comfortable with based upon what we know is happening in the broader marketplace with the macro and with our own business. While we feel really, really good about the things we can control inside the business, the macro environment does remain dynamic. We did raise the midpoint, but we wanted to put numbers out there that we feel very comfortable with.

Analyst at Citi

Great. Thank you so much.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Skylar Tennant
Skylar Tennant
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, this is Skylar Tennant on for Simeon Gutman. Thank you so much for taking our question today. I guess with some of the margin compression previously talked about, how temporary do you think that is, and do you think it can be fully resolved by Q1?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Sure. It's a great question. I want to just reaffirm that as product costs remain elevated given constrained supply base, we feel really good about the supply position that we're in. We have an advantage position given our scale and size, not just on a location basis but on a network basis. The constraint is being felt across the system. When the strait reopens, it will take some time for product to flow through to the next stream of lubricant manufacturing steps. We do expect that the elevated costs will persist for some time. Our understanding in working with the supplier is four to six months at a minimum, once the strait is fully reopened. Obviously, we have a supplier that has a very strong network of supply, and they've already been working with alternate sources, et cetera.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

For costs to come down, you'd need the supply chain to be back fully inventoried, and we know that will take some time, just given how long the strait has been closed and some of the damage that's happened within the overall network.

Skylar Tennant
Skylar Tennant
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. I guess on the cost increases, how much more pressure would you expect to flow through the P&L into the near term and future quarters? Thank you.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Yeah. We've projected what we know today, I think it will depend on really the macro, how things play out in the strait, how things play out in the broader supply chain. We have factored in everything that we know to date in terms of cost increases and related pricing action that we need to take. We'll continue to do that as the situation unfolds. We've taken action on what we know today.

Skylar Tennant
Skylar Tennant
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you, good luck.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Bellinger from Mizuho. David, your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Bellinger
David Bellinger
Analyst at Mizuho

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the questions. Just another clarification on the gross margin line. You had about six percentage points of ticket or more in this quarter. It doesn't seem like the product cost hit the gross margin line in Q3. Is this more of a timing issue where the higher costs will land in the Q4 period? Why is there such a lag between the cost increase versus the price increase to the consumers? Is there a way you can tighten that?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

That's a good question. I would say that we were proactive around pricing in the June quarter. Intentionally so as we were being informed of a lot of cost increase that was coming. The timing of that, it can be difficult to get perfectly right, especially the timing between when we actually see the cost flow and when we take price. We've tried to be proactive on the price side to protect those gross profit dollars. We were successful in doing that in the June quarter. I would say as we're in Q4, we face some of those same challenges around the timing of pricing and seeing the cost flow through. I think in normal times, there's much better alignment around that because it's a more systematized process.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Whereas right now we're in an incredibly dynamic environment with a lot of things going on and a lot of changes happening. We're just trying to be as proactive as we can, given where we are right now.

David Bellinger
David Bellinger
Analyst at Mizuho

Got it. My follow-up just on the implied guidance for Q4. The system-wide same-store sales number is about 8%-10% implied there. You also talked about some of these pockets of pressure in June. Can you tell us a little more about how sales have recovered? Are you seeing more transaction growth, or is that incremental uplift, is that mainly from more pricing?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah, it's a good question. I think we expect the fundamentals of the business to remain intact from a transaction growth, from a premiumization and NOCR, we do see the difference really being around price, both in terms of what company store pass-through and pricing is, but also what our franchisees do. I think that was a piece that was hard for us to forecast last quarter, is how quickly our franchisees would take price. At the time we had the call that last quarter, we hadn't had a pass-through yet with the franchisee base because of where the indexes and costs were. Some of that is real time and dynamic as Kevin talked out. You're right in terms of implied guidance. It's around 8%-10% with the difference being around what is assumed on the price side.

David Bellinger
David Bellinger
Analyst at Mizuho

Got it. Thank you both.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Babcock with Barclays. John, your line is open. Please go ahead.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Barclays

All right. Thank you, and appreciate you taking the time to answer my questions. Just first one, what are your partners telling you about the supply and demands in the base oil market? Also, I don't know what they've said around the Strait of Hormuz, but I'm just curious, did the loosening that occurred in May or June, did that help at all?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

In terms of the supply demand dynamic, obviously still remains challenged. There's very little product going through the strait. Lori talked about the supply chain taking four to six months to start to normalize, and that's very real. A lot of base oil is made in Asia, specifically South Korea, and it's been challenging for those companies to get crude oil so that they can do what they need to do to make base oil that eventually will make its way back here and be converted into finished lubricant. Group III base oil, which is the primary ingredient for full synthetic, has been the most challenged and continues to be. Group II less so, but also challenged, partly because of refiners managing their own mix. This is industry-wide. This is not a Valvoline phenomenon.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Where we are right now, though, with our supplier arrangement, we do feel that we are advantaged on an overall basis and continue to work very closely with them to ensure that we remain supplied. If you don't mind repeating the second question, I didn't catch it.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Barclays

Yeah. The second half of my question was really just around the Strait of Hormuz, because it opened up a little bit and I'm just curious if that ended up helping the market or if that was a relatively non-event.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

I think as it relates to Group IIIs, it was, at least from our understanding, pretty limited relief, limited to little relief. Part of that is when you look at other uses for Group IIIs, it also goes into jet fuel. Summer season is high peak travel season. The demand for Group III base oils is high, and that constraint is what's driving the price of that up, which then drives the cost of our finished lubricant up. I would say there was a little bit of loosening in a few ships that came through in May, I don't think broadly that was much relief.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Barclays

Gotcha. That's helpful. Then I guess just a quick follow-on here. I'm just kind of curious, are your suppliers preparing for any contingency plans, and what are those plans?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah, I don't want to speak for our suppliers, obviously. What I would say is we work with a company that we've used to be part of our company, they have always been very Forward-Looking on reformulating product to meet the requirements of the product and the quality standards. Whether it was tariffs on other products and/or now this lubricant Group III base oil constraint, they are very Forward-Looking at reformulating using new sources of Group III base oil as well as others. I would just say our supplier is in the business of creating lubricant not just for us, but for others. They do everything they can to keep their customers, including us, which we are one of their largest customers, in stock so that we can continue to serve our guests.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

I think I'll just harken back to what Kevin said in that we are strategically advantaged given our relationship with our supplier.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Barclays

Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Thomas Wendler with Stephens. Thomas, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thomas Wendler
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Stephens

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Apologies if I missed this, but could you give us a breakdown of the traffic and ticket in 3Q? Then you'd mentioned additional pricing actions being taken this quarter. Can you help us gauge the price increases taken in 4Q?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

As I mentioned in the remarks, our same-store sales was very strong across the quarter, both for franchise and company. Ticket drove about 3/4 of the comp, and transaction was the remainder. Ticket was slightly more of a contributor in Q3 versus Q2. I think Q2 it was 2/3, and this quarter it was 3/4. Not significantly different. That was because of the net pricing contribution that we got within the quarter, both on the franchise and the company side. It was offset by slightly less growth in NOCR penetration, which we typically see in the summer drive season. Those are the dynamics for Q3.

Thomas Wendler
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Stephens

Perfect. Thank you. Then understanding this is probably a ways out, but once base oil costs move lower, should we be expecting prices to move down or maybe some gross margin expansion?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

If you look at historical industry norms around price, we have not been an industry that has rolled back pricing as base oil and finished lubricant costs move up or down. We would expect that as the product costs start to moderate, and again, it will be some time before we see that, we would expect margin expansion which then gets us back to a margin rate that would be more in keeping with our historical pattern and our objectives for margin expansion overall.

Thomas Wendler
Thomas Wendler
Analyst at Stephens

Perfect. Thanks for answering my questions. I'll hop back in the queue.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Stember with Roth Capital. Scott, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Scott Stember
Scott Stember
Analyst at Roth Capital

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Just talking about the competitive pricing environment, as you roll out this $5-$7 increase for oil change, what are you seeing from your direct Quick Lube customers? Just trying to get a sense of if anybody is trying to use this as an opportunity to gain share across the industry by maintaining price.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

It is something that we watch. Yeah, Scott, it's a good question. We are constantly monitoring competitor pricing, particularly in this environment where the landscape is changing. I will remind you, it is a very fragmented competitor base. For us to have true visibility of what independents are doing, what dealers are doing, et cetera, is very challenging. We are looking at those players who offer a more consistent service that we do from a convenience standpoint. We are seeing price movements happening in different ways and at different tiers. We are seeing pricing moves now. Some of it has been more recent, and we're not sure if it's pervasive across all geographies. That's the work that we constantly do to monitor geographic changes versus whole of network changes on our competitor side.

Scott Stember
Scott Stember
Analyst at Roth Capital

Got it. Just digging into that $5.7 increase per oil change. In the past, you've talked about some offsets being increased price of waste oil that you farm out. How does that factor into this net equation?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Sure. Historically, waste oil sales back to collectors have been an offset, especially as we've seen crude oil costs increase, waste oil has tended to move up some. I'd say in the June quarter, we saw very little movement in the price of waste oil. Where we sit in the September quarter, we have started to see some movement upwards, so we do expect that that will be a bit of an offset. As a reminder, with the pace and the quantum of increases that we have seen, the industry has seen, it will be an offset, but there's still a gap, and we're addressing that gap with pricing. All that said, I would say that the team has been executing really well around all of that, generating really strong results as part of it, and continues to do that.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

We would expect that to continue into the future and drive strong business fundamentals.

Scott Stember
Scott Stember
Analyst at Roth Capital

Got it. That's all I have. Thank you.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Max Rakhlenko with TD Cowen. Max, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Max Rakhlenko
Max Rakhlenko
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thanks a lot. First, on gross margin, can you speak to the philosophy around Valvoline potentially starting to take price to maintain margins, not just profit dollars? And whether there's an opportunity to get a little bit more aggressive to protect the P&L. Then where you sit today, assuming everything holds, do we sort of roll the 4Q pressure into early fiscal 2027, or how do we think about that?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Thanks, Max. I'll take the first one, then I'll have Kevin talk through the last part. As we have looked at historical practice, both for Valvoline and what has worked very well is as we see costs inflate and we pass those through to consumers, we do have headwind on a margin rate perspective but maintain margin dollar performance. We do know that the normal cycle for finished lubricants likely will come back down, and that's when you end up having the margin expansion back to a more normalized rate. I think where we want to be careful is in a macro environment where the consumer is having a lot of inflationary impacts. If you raise your prices significantly higher than competitors, there will be an elasticity trade-off.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Therefore, we just want to make sure that we're managing that in line because transaction volume drives margin in our business. To take short-term pricing positive wins, you may not like the consequences long term with volume if a competitor comes in with a promotional or lower pricing. It's just a dynamic we have to watch very carefully, and we do, and we have. We do expect margin rate will expand back as we get through this period of supply constraint.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Max, as for the second part of the question, I think it's still a little early to start talking about fiscal 2027. What I will say is a lot of the dynamic that we face is tied to the macro. It's tied to what goes on with the straight and what's happening with the supply chain and how that could ebb or flow. We will react and even proact to that as that continues to play out. We and the industry will have to continue to navigate that, and we certainly feel like we're as well or better equipped as anyone else in the industry to do that.

Max Rakhlenko
Max Rakhlenko
Analyst at TD Cowen

Got it. That's helpful. Can you speak to progress you're making around the Breeze integration? How are synergies tracking? Do you potentially now see more versus less opportunities to achieve, whether it's top-line or cost synergies? Just any help around the store conversion timelines.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Sure. Thanks. We continue to be really happy with our integration efforts as we look at all the metrics that we track and having them be within or above our initial expectations. We've seen some early positive momentum on the stores we've converted to date. Obviously, it's early and the ramp is significant, so I don't want to overstate, but it is ahead of where we would have expected in the early months of that process. It's a real testament because when we typically buy, we are buying roughly 30 stores from independent operators every year. This is not new in terms of converting stores over to a Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand. We typically have employee fallout when that happens.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

I think because we were very clear in the first quarter that our focus was to settle down the teams, to connect with them, we have seen very little attrition in the process of converting the stores, and I think that has bode well for the early-on performance. Now that said, there are many actions that we're taking from a marketing and a fleet sales perspective that is not waiting for the Valvoline brand conversion. We are getting the benefit of that. On SG&A, we did talk last time of having some early synergy capture. When we look at where we are year to date, we're definitely ahead on the cost on the G&A synergy capture that we were expecting, although it's low numbers, but we continue to pace positive.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

When we step back, overall, the Breeze business is performing without the changes we made at or about where we expected, and then the changes that we've made are adding some fuel to their performance, which we're really pleased with. We continue to have more interactions with their leadership team, their support teams, and it's a very strong team with a very strong culture, and so we continue to be really pleased, and have no concerns about the business case and the return on capital invested to be very much in line with what we talked about in the December investor update.

Max Rakhlenko
Max Rakhlenko
Analyst at TD Cowen

Got it. That's super helpful. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bret Jordan with Jefferies. Bret, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Bret Jordan
Bret Jordan
Analyst at Jefferies

Hey, guys. With all the refunds from IEEPA tariffs being thrown around in the aftermarket and probably a lot of imported filters in the mix, do you see yourself then positioned to pick up any IEEPA refund?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Yeah, I'll take that one. As we look at the tariff impact, that was sized last year as being pretty modest. Frankly, a lot of action was taken to mitigate or avoid a lot of the tariffs that could have come. Frankly, we saw very little impact from tariff actions. Last year, there was no impact when it came to finished lubricants. Those were excluded from any tariff impact, which is obviously a large component of what we purchase. We saw very little, and to date we have not received any refunds, but I just want to emphasize that those would be very modest, if and when they come.

Bret Jordan
Bret Jordan
Analyst at Jefferies

Filters are not imported in your mix?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

They are, our supplier changed their filter supplier geographically to significantly mitigate any tariff impact. Again, we experienced very little cost headwind from the tariff actions that were taken. It just didn't impact the business very much at all.

Bret Jordan
Bret Jordan
Analyst at Jefferies

Okay, great. I guess you talked about preferred supply chain relative to competitors on base level Group III. Do you have any competitors that are sort of disadvantaged from a price standpoint? Would Shell have to do more sort of working backwards to get supply that would add cost to that oil, or is everybody pretty much same footing?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

It's a good question, a lot of the information that we have is frankly somewhat anecdotal, but what we have heard in the marketplace, is everyone is kind of in the same situation. I think in terms of from a price perspective, everybody is seeing cost increase, I think where we're advantaged is with the relationship we have, I think we have a lot more surety of supply than probably a lot of others in the marketplace do. I don't think there's a whole lot else to say about it. That's going to just continue to play out.

Bret Jordan
Bret Jordan
Analyst at Jefferies

All right. Great. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison from Baird. Craig, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Craig Kennison
Craig Kennison
Analyst at Baird

Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. It's been a helpful call so far. I wanted to ask about non-oil change revenue and whether you expect maybe attachment rates to drop as a result of higher prices as consumers realize it costs them a little bit more just to get the core oil change.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah. As I mentioned, we're not seeing any trade down or deferral. That includes on the non-oil change revenue. We typically, as we get in the summer drive season, as our stores get busier, sometimes the execution may drop just as people are trying to get cars through our bays. Also, customers, if they've had to wait to get into the bay, they won't take additional services. This is not new. Where we see pressure is on continued growth and penetration. In the summer dry season, we're not seeing any trade down or deferral. We're still seeing positive contribution in the same store sales from NOCR, just slightly less than what we've seen in the past two quarters. We're not seeing any consumer demand fall off.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

I would say consumers remain very resilient. This is a non-discretionary category. People want to take care of their vehicles, particularly as they're getting into the summer months and they drive. They're doing more summer road trips.

Craig Kennison
Craig Kennison
Analyst at Baird

Thanks, Lori. Maybe just to follow-up on that. What is the inflation trend outside of your base oil impact? Just the inflation trend you're seeing on some of that non-oil change revenue business.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Are you talking about cost inflation or price inflation?

Craig Kennison
Craig Kennison
Analyst at Baird

I was thinking about price inflation, what your consumers face, I'll take both.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah. I would say that our normal pricing. We have two types of NOCR services. We have what we call our OEM recommended services. That's radiator flushes and differentials and things like that that not all of our competitors in the quick lube channel offer. We typically, dealers, we look at our dealer pricing, and we offer a value relative to that. We're always looking at where dealer pricing is to ensure that we maximize the dollars that we get for those services but still offer value relative to a dealer. As it relates to visuals, we continue to just look at what the customer's willing to pay, what our penetration rates are and margin levels, and we take regular pricing on those items in due course. I don't think we've done anything significantly different from our normal course on those items.

Craig Kennison
Craig Kennison
Analyst at Baird

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Lantz with Wells Fargo. David, your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Lantz
David Lantz
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. On the SG&A front, can you walk through some of the puts and takes that we should keep in mind for fiscal Q4 and how to think through the impact of advertising at the world's top both on top line and expense front?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Yeah, I think, as we have gone into Q4, like I said, we expect to have year-over-year SG&A leverage in Q4 versus last year. Continued focus on the cost dynamic and how we're managing our cost profile from an SG&A perspective. On the marketing piece, there can certainly be a little bit of seasonality to that, et cetera. I would say from a general approach perspective, the marketing program tends to be planned well in advance, and we execute against those plans. I wouldn't expect anything particularly out of the ordinary from a marketing perspective in Q4 either.

David Lantz
David Lantz
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Got it. That's helpful. There's a fairly wide range of store openings implied for Q4. Can you walk through how we should think through that and the split between company operated and franchise?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah, we did have a good, healthy number of additions in Q3. We opened 47 net new additions for the quarter. 26 openings coming from franchise growth with one closure, and company opened 20 and had two transfers from the Express Care platform for a total of 22. Overall, a good Q3. Q4, always, if you look in history, is always a heavy new addition. Part of that is driven by the construction timeframe for both us and our franchise partners. We do expect to be within the range. I think some of this is timing of when things fall in September. It depends on where in the range we'll fall, but we're very confident that we'll be within the range after we finish Q4.

David Lantz
David Lantz
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Peter Keith
Peter Keith
Analyst at Piper Sandler

Thank you. Good morning. I want to follow-up on a question. I think it was from Bret earlier, just around the base oil cost increases and shortages. While it does seem like everyone is in the same camp from a cost perspective, I don't think everyone's in the same camp from a supply perspective. We're hearing about smaller players out there facing some shortages, being put on allocation. Sounds like you guys will be better positioned than anyone. Does this present a market share opportunity or can you market around it? Conversely, maybe people just substitute other types of oil unbeknownst to the consumer.

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Yeah, it's a great question and one that the team is actively working on. Peter, again, anecdotally, it's such a fragmented market, we do know that there are players that are either on allocation or are facing some shortages of product. Part of the marketing work we're doing is trying to figure out how we tease that out and take advantage. It's very similar to during COVID when we stayed open because people could stay in their cars, and we could safely deliver the service in a time of uncertainty, and others could not. We stole share during that period. This is a little different in that there are a lot of customers who would typically go elsewhere, and they may not get service. How do we make sure that we are top of mind at those times and in places that they're searching?

Lori Flees
Lori Flees
President and CEO at Valvoline

Obviously, from a marketing lower funnel perspective, being in the right place at the right time, but also augmenting that with our brand messaging such that we are continually increasing brand awareness and consideration such that when they're in the market to look for a new place because the place they have gone before cannot serve them, we are top of mind and ready to serve. That is very much a focus within our marketing team. We are trying to be proactive in getting new customers to trial our brand. All of that work is well underway, and we do see opportunity. Hard to size it, that's one of the reasons why Kevin's saying we're not pulling back on marketing because this is the time when you just have to be razor sharp on where you spend your marketing to capitalize on those opportunities.

Peter Keith
Peter Keith
Analyst at Piper Sandler

Yeah. Okay. All right. Sounds interesting. Thank you for that. I guess my follow-up to Kevin would just be on the cost increases related to base oil. I can appreciate a steady ramp of your own price increases to be competitive. Is the goal right now to basically have that price cost ratio be neutral by the end of fiscal Q4, assuming base oil prices were to stay steady from here?

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Yeah. That's a fair assumption. As we've tried to be clear that we want to protect gross profit dollars. We want to be mindful of the consumer and where the consumer is in an inflationary environment. We're being as proactive as we can from a price cost dynamic. Q3, very pleased that we were able to do what we did and get out a little bit ahead of where the cost increases rolled through. Yes, our plan, our expectation is to have those two dynamics match from a price cost perspective.

Peter Keith
Peter Keith
Analyst at Piper Sandler

Okay. Very good. Thank you so much. Good luck with the rest of the fiscal year.

Kevin Willis
Kevin Willis
CFO at Valvoline

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Elizabeth Clevinger
      Elizabeth Clevinger
      Investor Relations Contact
    • Lori Flees
      Lori Flees
      President and CEO
    • Kevin Willis
      Kevin Willis
      CFO
Analysts
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