Nucor Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
January 30, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Nucor achieved $3.16 EPS in Q4 and $18 per share for 2023, marking its third most profitable year ever with the last three years’ net earnings exceeding the combined earnings of the prior two decades.
  • The company invested $2.2 billion in CapEx and returned $2.1 billion to shareholders (46% of net earnings), raising its quarterly dividend by 6% to $0.54—its 203rd consecutive dividend.
  • Nucor plans approximately $3.5 billion in capital expenditures for 2024, including ramping up the Brandenburg plate mill, constructing a West Virginia sheet mill, and expanding its rebar micro mill footprint.
  • Its Expand Beyond segments generated $415 million in EBITDA during 2023, driven by overhead doors and insulated metal panels, with a goal of reaching a $700 million EBITDA run rate in coming years.
  • Nucor anticipates 5–8 million tons of incremental annual steel demand from federal infrastructure and clean energy programs, while noting near-term headwinds such as slower EV adoption, offshore wind delays, and moderating warehouse starts.
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Earnings Conference Call
Nucor Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Nucor 2023 fourth quarter earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, General Manager and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jack Sullivan
Jack Sullivan
General Manager of Investor Relations at Nucor

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's fourth quarter and year-end 2023 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President, and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer, Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products, Brad Ford, over Fabricated Construction Products, Noah Hanners, Raw Materials, John Hollatz, Bar and Rebar Fabrication, Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy, Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability, and General Counsel, Dan Needham, Commercial, Rex Query, Sheet and Talent Resources, and Chad Utermark, New Markets and Innovation. We've posted our fourth quarter earnings release and presentation to the Nucor Investor Relations website. We encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call.

Jack Sullivan
Jack Sullivan
General Manager of Investor Relations at Nucor

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our safe harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. With that, let's turn the call over to Leon.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Thanks, Jack, and welcome everyone. I'd like to begin by congratulating our 32,000 Nucor teammates for delivering another strong year of financial results. We closed out 2023 with solid performance, earning $3.16 per share in the fourth quarter on our way to $18 per share for the full year. This represents the third most profitable year in Nucor's history, behind 2022 and 2021. In fact, Nucor's combined net earnings over the past three years exceeds the combined net earnings of the last 20 years. This is a testament to the focus and dedication of our team as we execute our strategy to grow the core, Expand Beyond, and live our culture.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

In keeping with our commitment to shareholders and our balanced approach toward capital allocation, Nucor invested $2.2 billion in CapEx and returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in 2023, representing 46% of our net earnings. We are coming off the three best years in Nucor's history, but in spite of that, we're even more excited about what lies ahead. The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, and steel-intensive megatrends are starting to drive increased demand for the products we make, and our focus on Expand Beyond businesses downstream are generating excellent returns. Turning to our safety performance, 2023 statistically was the safest year in Nucor's history, making five straight years of improvement. We also had 29 divisions going the entire year without a recordable injury.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

We finished the year with a company-wide injury and illness rate of 0.79%, which is 17% lower than 2022 and well below the steel industry average. However, with that said, Nucor will not internally acknowledge 2023 as a record year in safety. We'll not celebrate 2023 as a record year because on November third, we lost a Nucor team member to a workplace accident. Subsequently, on November 9th, we had a company-wide safety standdown. It was a chance to honor our fallen team member and his family, reflect on our most important value, safety, and reinforce that the health, safety, and well-being of every Nucor team member is what matters most. Our team members come to work each and every day to support themselves, their loved ones, and they must go home each and every day.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

That is our greatest responsibility to all 32,000 team members who make up our Nucor family. Every leader inside of Nucor is committed to delivering our mission to become the world's safest steel company, and there is no doubt in my mind we will achieve our goals together. Nucor is the largest and most diversified steel producer in North America. We pioneered the commercial application of EAF steelmaking over 50 years ago, and today we own and operate 30 electric arc furnaces with four more under construction. EAF steelmaking and our unique entrepreneurial culture have made us the industry leader, and our current strategy will keep Nucor out in front as we continue to deliver the financial results and capabilities our investors and customers have come to expect. Today, Nucor leads the North American steel industry across financial, operational, and environmental criteria.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Value creation for shareholders through prudent capital deployment is our primary financial objective. Since the beginning of 2020, we have invested over $12 billion in CapEx and strategic acquisitions to grow our core and Expand Beyond. During the same time, our average annual ROE has exceeded 30%, and our annualized EPS growth rate has exceeded 40%. In terms of operation, Nucor makes approximately one out of every four tons of steel produced in the United States. We have a highly efficient business model, and our unrivaled breadth of products and capabilities serve the widest range of end markets. Sustainability is a key differentiator for Nucor and a major part of our growth strategy.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

We are the largest recycler in the Western Hemisphere and among the lowest in greenhouse gas intensity across global steelmaking, and we're taking steps to position us even better for the future, supplying customers with the sustainable solutions they've come to expect. That's why we helped create the Global Steel Climate Council and announced a commitment towards Net Zero steelmaking by 2050 across Scopes 1, 2, and 3. Our business strategy and investments are driving growth for shareholders. In raw materials, we are leveraging our market intelligence and flexible supply chain to provide more sustainable inputs. We're investing in advanced scrap separation technologies and near zero-emission iron making, and we've partnered with ExxonMobil to capture and store up to 800,000 tons of CO2 per year at our Louisiana DRI facility, beginning in 2026.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

In our steel mill segment, we are shifting the mix toward higher margin, value-added products. We continue to ramp up Brandenburg, the most capable EAF plate mill in the world. We're constructing a state-of-the-art sheet mill in West Virginia, and we're expanding our rebar micro mill footprint, targeting some of the highest growth regions in the U.S. Turning to steel products, we have a strategic advantage on the supply side, given the integration between our mills and steel product teams. We'll continue to leverage this advantage while pursuing more cross-selling and companion tons through our solutions teams, and we're investing in automation and technology to improve efficiency and reduce the risk of injuries. And finally, our Expand Beyond strategy into a steel adjacent platforms is paying off. We are leveraging our core competencies to grow into higher margin businesses aligned with steel-intensive megatrends.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

We're executing this strategy through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth, including the construction of two new utility structure production facilities. For 2023, our Expand Beyond platforms contributed roughly $415 million in EBITDA, led by overhead doors and insulated metal panels. We remain confident in hitting our $700 million EBITDA run rate goal for Expand Beyond divisions in the coming years. We believe the American steel industry is still on the front end of megatrends working their way into steel markets. We are starting to see some increased activity in certain markets, like bridge and highway, semiconductor chip plants, EV factories, and renewable energy. And as we've shared before, Nucor expects the federal programs that support these megatrends to add somewhere between 5 million, 8 million tons of incremental annual demand for steel over the next several years.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

While the long-term trends look favorable, we've seen some pockets of slower than expected activity. For instance, adoption rates for electric vehicles are tracking lower than some have predicted, and several offshore wind projects have been canceled or delayed due to supply chain challenges as well as higher costs. Warehouse starts are expected to decline again in 2024, but we still expect them to stay above pre-pandemic levels. Despite some of these near-term headwinds, Nucor remains optimistic about the longer term prospects for these end markets. Non-res construction is our largest end market, and it has proven to be incredibly resilient. Some of the strongest growth is coming from the sharp rise in advanced manufacturing and infrastructure investment, both expected to rise double digits over the next two years, according to Dodge Construction forecasts.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

This is helping to offset some of the softness we're seeing from more rate-sensitive sectors, which should begin to pick up later in the year if interest rate cuts occur, as many expect. Before turning it over to Steve, I'd like to share a few thoughts on how Nucor's business model continues to deliver attractive returns for our shareholders. From 2020 to 2023, we've generated a combined EBITDA over $30 billion, net earnings of nearly $20 billion, and returned nearly $10 billion to our shareholders. Throughout it all, we've maintained the strongest balance sheet of any North American steel producer, allowing us to grow the company by investing in higher margin, less volatile businesses.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

As our results demonstrate, Nucor is a growth company, and given our investment plans and the long-term outlook for steel in the U.S., we see more opportunities for growth in the years ahead. With that, I'll turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details on our financial results and near-term outlook. Steve?

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Thank you, Leon, and thanks to our shareholders for joining us this morning. Nucor ended 2023 on a strong note, with fourth quarter consolidated net earnings of $785 million, including $127 million of pre-operating start-up costs. We exceeded the midpoint of our guidance, due primarily to better than expected performance from our steel mill segment in the month of December. In addition to solid earnings for the quarter, the power of Nucor's business model allowed us to generate more than $1.5 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter, with working capital contributing about $250 million of that total. Turning to our operating segment results, our steel mills group generated $588 million of pretax earnings in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 33% from the third quarter.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Total steel mill shipments declined 4% from the prior quarter, and realized pricing for the segment was lower across all major products. Our mill utilization rate was 74%, down from 77% in the prior quarter, but higher than the 70% in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the back half of the fourth quarter, we saw an uptick in customer confidence as the UAW strikes were resolved and the Federal Reserve signaled the end to interest rate hikes. Shipment volumes increased as the quarter progressed, and we began to realize higher pricing for sheet steel, consistent with pricing trends in the published indices. We're expecting further improvements in both shipments and realized pricing to favorably impact results in the first quarter of 2024.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Our Steel Products segment delivered another strong quarter, with pretax earnings of $656 million. This represented just over half the total segment earnings for the fourth quarter and is the sixth consecutive quarter, with Steel Products contributing at least 40% of our total segment earnings. For the year, Steel Products generated segment earnings of $3.4 billion, its second-best year behind 2022. Realized pricing and margins continued to moderate in the fourth quarter, but on an earnings per ton basis for the full year of 2023, only gave up about 6 percentage points. Our Raw Materials segment posted a pretax loss of about $14 million for the quarter. Compared to the prior quarter, pricing was relatively stable, but output was lower and per ton cost rose due to planned outages at our DRI facilities.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Now, turning to capital allocation. With $2.2 billion in capital spending and $2.1 billion in shareholder returns in 2023, Nucor once again demonstrated a measured and balanced approach to its capital deployment. With respect to our shareholder returns, it's worth noting that next week we'll pay our 200th consecutive quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.54 per share. This represents a 6% increase over the prior dividend. As Leon highlighted, Nucor is taking meaningful steps to grow its earnings, power, and cash flow potential. Since 2018, we've been able to increase our dividend by 42% and reduce our shares outstanding by 23%.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

For the foreseeable future, we remain confident we'll continue to be able to return at least 40% of our net earnings to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases. A cornerstone of our capital allocation framework is a commitment to a strong investment-grade credit rating and liquidity that enables our strategy. Nucor's balance sheet remains well positioned to enable continued execution of our balanced capital allocation philosophy, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 25% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 1. We have a long history of putting capital to use and returning capital to shareholders. Given that principle and our ambitious growth plans, we do expect to end 2024 with a lower cash balance than where we started the year. We finished 2023 with a strong cash position for several reasons.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

First, with more than $7 billion of cash from operations, we generated robust cash flows throughout the year. Second, we experienced some timing delays in our planned capital spending. And finally, we were preserving liquidity for possible acquisition opportunities, which ultimately did not materialize. Now that we've broken ground in West Virginia, the pace of our capital spending should accelerate. For 2024, we expect total capital expenditures of approximately $3.5 billion, with our seven largest growth projects representing approximately two-thirds of this total. In addition, we're firmly committed to growing our portfolio of solutions and Expand Beyond footprint through value-creating acquisitions. To that end, we are actively fostering a pipeline of acquisition candidates. As always, we will be selective, opportunistic, and disciplined in our approach. But unlike our organic growth strategy, the timing and size of potential acquisitions is far less predictable.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, we expect consolidated earnings to be higher than the prior quarter, with improved performance from the steel mills and raw material segments, partially offset by weaker earnings from the steel product segment. For the steel mill segment, we expect quarterly earnings to increase due to higher realized pricing and higher volumes, in particular from our sheet mills. In the steel product segment, we expect lower realized pricing compared with the prior quarter. Across most of our steel products groups, current backlogs are consistent with historic norms, while margins have remained higher than historic averages. For the raw material segment, we expect modest profitability on higher shipments and relatively stable pricing.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Looking ahead, 2024 appears to have a more stable outlook than may have been expected just a few months ago, with a reasonable probability of seeing the much-discussed soft landing. As Leon mentioned in his opening remarks, the U.S. economy appears relatively healthy, with inflation and unemployment metrics continuing to trend favorably. Market expectations for gradual declines in interest rates could result in more demand for consumer durables, light vehicles, and increased activity across a broad construction sector. As the most diversified producer of steel and steel products with the widest array of market solutions, these potential expectations bode well for Nucor. Looking beyond 2024, several steel-intensive megatrends are only in the early stages.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

While economic cycles will continue to impact the markets, we broadly see positive demand drivers that provide a constructive backdrop to Nucor's midterm growth potential. With that, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator, if you would, please open the line for Q&A.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Our first question comes from Curt Woodworth with UBS. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodworth
Curt Woodworth
Senior Analyst at UBS

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, Leon and team, and I'm sorry to hear that you guys lost a team member in November, but overall, congratulations on what's been a pretty strong safety performance the past several years. My first question is more end market related. So in your slide deck, you did have a constructive, generally constructive outlook, to use your words, with regards to commercial construction as well as infrastructure. But when we look at the volume performance of the bar and beam mills and even plates to some degree, it's been pretty choppy to down for almost two years now. So I guess, you know, what gives you confidence that that market can inflect?

Curt Woodworth
Curt Woodworth
Senior Analyst at UBS

What, what signs are you seeing in terms of either increased bidding activity on the highway bridge side or, you know, how your order book is shaping up?

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Yeah, Curt, I'll kick it off, and, you know, if there's any other comments from my team, I'll certainly let them jump in. And thank you for your condolences regarding our team member. As we've mentioned for decades now, the health, safety, and wellbeing of our 32,000 Nucor team member family is the greatest responsibility we all bear each and every day. They are the ones that are delivering every result we're about to talk about. So again, thank you for acknowledging that. You know, it's interesting, there's a lot of talk about new capacity, particularly in the sheet, and we get a lot of questions, Curt, as you know, around well, as we think about new market entrants or increased demand, won't that flattening of the cost curve change the profile in earnings?

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

What I would point to is what you really asked about, the longs. As we look at structural, and while we don't break out the individual structural mill, Nucor-Yamato or Berkeley beam, on a financial performance or the individual rebar mills, I would tell you the performance of our long products divisions has been incredible from a financial result. They are generating incredible returns for our company. Nucor-Yamato is operating at a much higher utilization rate, and so over the last two or three years than they had in 10% prior. I think, you know, prior to the pandemic, our average utilization rate at NYS, for example, was in the upper 60%s to low 70%s. That shifted much higher to the mid- to upper 70%s, low 80%s. So, you know, that flow-through and that run rate is generating great returns.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

So I would tell you, the outlook and continued demand for our structural products and long products remains pretty optimistic. And again, we've seen incredible, incredibly consistent returns in our longs products, divisions and groups that we think will continue into 2024.

Dan Needham
Dan Needham
EVP of Commercial at Nucor

Curt, this is, this is Dan. I'll give a little perspective on what we see in the markets, in particular with the funding programs as well. But, you know, if you think of the trends right now, we're seeing activity in some of the reshore and the advanced manufacturing. So you're seeing it in EV battery plants, those types of things. From a standpoint of IRA, CHIPS, and the Infrastructure Act, there's more activity going on on the energy side with the IRA and also with the CHIPS. We're active in shipping to multiple CHIPS plants that are under construction today. From an IRA standpoint, we've seen a lot of activity in solar, particularly, you know, 2023 was a record shipment year for us on torque tubes that go into these solar projects. And we're seeing that growing into 2024.

Dan Needham
Dan Needham
EVP of Commercial at Nucor

It was about 22 gigawatts built in 2023. We see it going to twenty to about 36 gigawatts in 2024. What I would say is some of the headwinds, we see the peak of those activities in the volume and demand coming in the next few years. And the reason for that, there's a couple things that are, that are headwinds to that. One is, we've talked about on past calls, is labor constraints. That's real out there. A lot of these projects are competing for the same labor pool, so we do see that having an impact. And then the other thing that's also impacting the pace of these projects is really around regulations. And what I mean by that is, getting access to energy for some of these plants is important. That's a slow process. The other thing is environmental permitting.

Dan Needham
Dan Needham
EVP of Commercial at Nucor

So we're seeing some headwinds with those, but not just delaying the projects. And, you know, lastly, around the infrastructure, you know, it can take upwards of 18 months to go from when these projects are announced to actually when they start getting shipped. So that's why we're we still see some optimism and, and are very positive in the outlook, and we're well positioned to take advantage of all of these trends going forward.

Curt Woodworth
Curt Woodworth
Senior Analyst at UBS

Great. And then just as a follow-up for steel products, you noted incremental pricing weakness in the quarter. Can you just comment can you give any more specificity around, you know, how you see margins trending in this quarter or, you know, the margin profile of the backlog? And obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces within the steel products segment, but do you have a view on, you know, where margins should normalize? And then with respect to you know, getting up to that $700 million EBITDA number, can you do that organically, or will you need to acquire as well to reach that? Thank you, and best of luck.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Yeah, Curt, that's a lot to unpack in there. What I would tell you on the macro, and I'll let Brad Ford share a little bit more of the details. Couldn't be more proud of how our products groups, and teams, and divisions have performed over the last several years. The non-res sector of our economy has remained incredibly resilient. We had 10 straight quarters, over $1 billion earned in that business on the downstream side of our portfolio. And while it was a little bit under that in 2023 or Q4 of 2023, it, it's continuing performance is strong. We're seeing order entry rates that are strong. As we move into Q1, we see that moving upwards. I'm not going to get detailed on the margins, but we see that improving.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

And so, Brad, maybe provide a little bit more context to what we're seeing as we enter 2024.

Brad Ford
Brad Ford
EVP of Fabricated Construction Products at Nucor

Yeah. Thanks, Leon, and thanks for the question. Like Leon, I couldn't be more pleased with the performance of our downstream product teams. The performance and safety, the clear step change in earnings, and the solutions and value we're providing to our customers, and our team is executing extremely well. You know, joists and deck tends to get a lot of the headlines, and while joists and deck is coming off its second best year ever, Nucor Downstream Products is far more than just joists and deck. For example, our insulated metal panel group is coming off a record year, rebar fabrication, record year, pre-engineered metal building, second best year ever. Our tubular products group, second best year ever. Garage doors, fasteners, towers, structures, warehouse systems, Skyline, on down the list.

Brad Ford
Brad Ford
EVP of Fabricated Construction Products at Nucor

This amazing product diversity positions Nucor uniquely to take advantage of strength in a variety of the market segments. As Dan mentioned, we see strength in advanced manufacturing and data centers supported by IRA and CHIPS, infrastructure supported by the IIJA. We also see strength in healthcare, education, and warehousing, while down, is still forecasted significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Our ability to offer this breadth of downstream products is unparalleled in the industry. These are secure, sustainable solutions for our customers and partners that continue to differentiate Nucor as the supplier of choice. And we're coming off a period in 2021 and 2022 of extremely high demand. And while we see demand moderating back towards historical levels, it's still quite strong.

Brad Ford
Brad Ford
EVP of Fabricated Construction Products at Nucor

While volumes have moderated, our backlog remains very healthy, and pricing has stabilized at levels far higher than historical averages. In fact, Q4 industry-wide bookings in joists and deck were the highest in six quarters and 40% higher than Q4 of last year. We're optimistic, and we're entering 2024 with more market activity and momentum than we entered 2023.

Curt Woodworth
Curt Woodworth
Senior Analyst at UBS

Great. Thank you very much.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Thanks, Curt.

Operator

Our next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Metals and Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hi, thank you for taking my question. At your Investor Day in 2022, you provided an EBITDA bridge that would get you to normalize EBITDA of about $6.7 billion. Can you provide an update on how you're progressing on reaching that goal?

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Yeah, I'd actually be pleased to. So in November of 2022, we stood in New York and rolled out the most comprehensive, detailed analysis that we've ever published before, to show you, as the analysts, what we were going to do and the accountability by which we were going to hold ourselves to. That through cycle EBITDA, with the completion of our CapEx investments, would yield about a $6.7 billion through cycle EBITDA performance. I tell you, at $7.4 for the third best year in Nucor, we're doing really well, and that's going to continue to improve because not all those projects have come to fruition yet. We've got galv lines being built. We've got our new micro mill being built in Lexington, North Carolina.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

We've got the investments in Kingman, Arizona, that we're making, where we're expanding our resource pool and how we bring these products to market. So I would tell you, we're doing incredibly well. And again, we'll look back at times and look, are we coming out of the cycle? Did we hit the trough? And what I would tell you is I'm really proud of our earnings. I'm proud of the way the team has been able to accomplish those. And then again, the results that we've been able to see.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

You know, as we shared with you on the opening remarks, you know, to generate $30 billion over the last 4 years, $20 billion in net earnings, and 10% or $10 billion given back to our shareholders, has been an incredible, well-disciplined growth strategy, and that's going to continue. We're going to be very disciplined in how we think about capital allocation moving forward. Steve, anything you'd like to add on, as we continue to grow and looking at that run rate of 6.7%?

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Yeah, Katja, just to add on to what Leon said, you know, a lot of those projects are still ahead of us. If you take a look at some of the biggest ones in our company's history, like West Virginia, those are only in the early stages of their project life, so they haven't even started to, started to contribute. And, in terms of our Expand Beyond investments, we told you that we felt confident those investments would hit $700 million in EBITDA, and we still would reaffirm that today. And I tell you, we feel very confident we'll hit $700 million at their run rates at the end there.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

There's still more to come in that and, like Leon said, cycles go where they go, but we're continuing to execute on our business on all fronts.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Metals and Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

I think, and maybe just quickly on the Brandenburg plate mill, how much do you expect the mill will produce in 2024? I think previously where you were expecting about 500,000 tons.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Yeah, Katja, this is Al Behr. That's still our number for 2024. I would expect to be there or north of it. Yeah, I'm just super proud of that team and how they've worked through the ramp-up there. We continue to be focused on the new part of the market that we can't service out of our existing portfolio. But we remain mindful of the returns we generate through there at Hertford and Tuscaloosa that contribute to the strong results you see in front of you. And we want to add to that out of Brandenburg. So we're going to continue that thoughtful process. But Q4 was a meaningful, productive quarter for that team. We continue to set new standards.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

We shipped, you know, another Nucor first of 120-foot-long plates to a bridge fabricator, 30 tons a piece. We shipped them by truck and by rail. So these are the kinds of things that we'll be able to do out of Brandenburg that's never been done before by Nucor or perhaps the rest of the industry, and we're just excited as we roll into this year. But that remains our number, and we're confident in that.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Metals and Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Managing Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Yeah. Hey, good morning, team. Wanted to ask a little bit more about capital allocation. I guess first off, the comment on lower cash balance. What do you think is the right level? Because clearly it's been running kind of high recently, so just to get a little more color there. And secondly, you made mention of preserving liquidity for potential M&A and acquisition that you thought and didn't. And here at an industry conference, there's a lot of chatter about Nucor's supposed involvement in the acquisition process for U.S. Steel. Just wondering if you can comment on that or give us some more color, perhaps, on your M&A pipeline, what that might look like, what types of companies, et cetera.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Yeah, Tim, I'll kick it off, and then let Steve. So I'll begin with the second part of your question, which, you know, again, obviously, the proxy's out. Nucor took a hard look at some of the select assets within the U.S. Steel portfolio, but at the end of the day, you know, we're not going to overpay for any assets. We're going to continue to be very disciplined in how we think about growth. You know, some of the cash generated was just stronger results and stronger shipments and some pricing that had flowed through that we didn't fully anticipate. But I would tell you again, from my perspective, we continue to remain an incredibly undervalued stock.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

As we think about the growth and metrics that I've already shared, won't repeat again, but at 7.5x EBITDA, I think we are a great value in terms of the things that we're doing and producing. And regardless of who ends up owning U.S. Steel's assets, you know, Nucor's market cap today is larger than the next three largest combined steel companies in North America. We are the industry leader, and so again, as we look at our strategy and our growth, we're going to be incredibly disciplined in making sure that the investments we make in our core and Expand Beyond are delivering the results our shareholders expect.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

On the Expand Beyond, particularly, that it's providing some insulation to the traditional cyclicality of steel, that we're looking for the steel-adjacent downstream businesses that, again, operate a little countercyclical to what we're seeing in steel, and we're seeing those again manifest themselves with C.H.I., the megatrends that we're seeing in towers and structures and some of the other businesses that we've acquired over the last three or four years.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Yeah. Hey, Tim, this is Steve. I'll just add to what Leon said, that we don't, you know, we have such a good opportunity in front of us, and he highlighted the areas that we think about growth. So we're always going to keep enough liquidity to move on the things we need to move on. And we also highlighted that we will spend around $3.5 billion in CapEx in this year, so that's a higher rate than our historic averages. And despite that, we will you know, Leon highlighted this one, too. We still feel like our stocks are a good buy here. So you'll see us at a higher pace for share buybacks in Q1 than we did last year.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Managing Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Okay, that's super helpful. Thank you for the color. I guess one quick one, if I could add. I know there was a question already about Brandenburg run rate, but I was just wondering, is there still more room to see Gallatin on an annualized basis ramp up, or is it already pretty, pretty fully running out, with the expansion? Thanks again.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Sorry, Tim, was your question on Gallatin's ramp up?

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Managing Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Yes, the status of that, if you could please.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Okay. Yeah, I'll, I'll provide some high level. What I would tell you, in the last three or four months of 2023, the team has executed incredibly well. We've seen daily, weekly, monthly production records set at that facility. They have realized the full run rate potential of that mill and now are operating at an extremely high level. So they have turned, more than turned the corner and again, are producing at or near run rate capabilities, and we'll continue that as we move into 2024.

Timna Tanners
Timna Tanners
Managing Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Okay. Thanks again. Appreciate it.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Equity Research at JPMorgan

Yeah. Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. So I guess first, in the plate market, I guess, what are your views on the plate market, given the step up in service center inventories we saw in December and the year-on-year decline in shipments despite you know, Brandenburg's ramp? I guess, you know, following up on that Brandenburg sort of ramp commentary, when can we expect to see Brandenburg turn profitable this year?

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Bill, just out there again, I'll comment on the plate stuff. We did have an increase year-over-year in shipments, about 11%. And part of that is, of course, Brandenburg. But you know, just speaking about the plate market overall, you know, I'd say we're reasonably optimistic. I mean, there's areas of weakness that get some headlines and higher interest rates are a compressive force when it comes to vertical construction where plate is used. But there's plenty of bright spots in other areas like power transmission and rail car manufacturing. Heavy equipment is still strong. It's probably declining, but it's still strong and a good pull-through for us.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

So, and then, of course, you've got the bridge and highway tons that are mostly yet to come, and that'll come for years in the future. So, you know, our Skyline business that Brad mentioned pulls a lot of plate tons through. Almost all of their work is infrastructure-related, not just bridge and highway, but many other types of projects. So, you know, our view is not that the plate market is going to be wildly robust, but it's going to remain pretty steady and has plenty of tailwinds to offset some of the other forces working against us.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Equity Research at JPMorgan

On the Brandenburg profitability, a timeline?

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

I'd expect we'd hit a run rate of break even sometime in the middle of the year.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Equity Research at JPMorgan

Okay. Thanks for that. Second question is a little bit longer, longer dated, longer focused, but, you know, in the last two earnings presentations, there's been certainly less on the decarbonization efforts. But, you know, with the team having, you know, many a multifaceted approach, across biocarbon, green pig iron, the CCS program you mentioned, power generation, zero-emission iron, and so forth. I guess, are any of these showing up in 2024, within your investments in CapEx, for example, the CCS program that you have planned for 2026? I guess, how should we think about these programs in terms of what's leading and how they flow through over the next several years?

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Yeah, look, I'll begin, and Greg Murphy, our EVP in Business Services and Sustainability, can jump in as well. But from a high-level look, it's a great question. You know, one of the beautiful things about Nucor and our positioning is, as one of the top 5 recyclers in the world, and certainly the largest in the Western Hemisphere, our EAF steelmaking technology means that we don't have to take the billions and billions and billions of dollars of profit we're making and pivot and transition from the old-style integrated facilities. You're seeing headlines around the world, companies in Europe that have made the pledge to 100% switch to EAF steelmaking technologies because they have no choice. The, you know, the question in my mind isn't about an if.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

You know, this nation is going to move to a greener, more sustainable platform as we rebuild, reshore, and continue to grow the digital economy. The real question in my mind is the pace in which we change. Do we have the infrastructure? Do we have the grid hardening? Do we have the resources across the United States to be able to effectively help the EV users power their cars and homes and, and everything else? But it's a long-winded way to get to the answer of your question. As you think about the VPPAs that we're part of, you think about some of these investment projects, the Louisiana partnership in Exxon, they didn't cost us anything because of the strength of our balance sheet, the strength of Nucor's leadership position. It wasn't a huge outlay of cash.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

You think about some of the other investments; they're smaller in size, so they're not, you know, they're $10s of millions rather than $100s or billions. It's positioning ourselves and finding partners out there that are doing different things with carbon and biochar. We're looking at technologies in Europe that are producing pig iron at or near Net Zero embodied carbon. So there's a number of things that we're examining that are not, at this point, large scale from a CapEx standpoint. Greg, anything you'd add to that?

Greg Murphy
Greg Murphy
EVP of Business Services and Sustainability at Nucor

Yeah, I guess on the timing issue, you know, we see the Louisiana project beginning to pay dividends probably in 2025. But as Leon said, that is not at all a capital-intensive investment for Nucor. We were able to structure that as an over-the-fence solution, working with a partner who really understands the geology and the petrochemical attributes there in ExxonMobil. And with the 45Q tax credit, that has proven to be a financial winner for Nucor, really from beginning to end.

Greg Murphy
Greg Murphy
EVP of Business Services and Sustainability at Nucor

And a lot of the other strategies that we will deploy as an EAF producer go to things like our source and supply of raw materials and how we can get lower embodied carbon raw materials, how we can use obsolete scrap and extract some of the tramp elements from that and use that to replace things like pig iron. So, you know, from a capital intensity standpoint, Leon nailed it. We are in a well-positioned place, and really what we're trying to do is to take a world-class level and make it even better. And we're very, very excited. The last thing I would mention is Scope 2 emissions. That's a big opportunity for Nucor. You've seen us make investments in both nuclear fission and nuclear fusion technology.

Greg Murphy
Greg Murphy
EVP of Business Services and Sustainability at Nucor

You know, we believe that's going to be an essential element in delivering reliable, affordable baseload power in the future that's zero carbon. That's still going to be a number of years out into the future, but, we believe it's going to be absolutely essential to supplement the solar and wind and other renewable clean sources in the future. But again, we don't want to build nuclear power plants. We want to be the off-takers and use that power.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Equity Research at JPMorgan

Well, thanks for the comprehensive answers and, you know, good luck ahead here with the execution.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Thanks, Bill.

Operator

The next question comes from Martin Englert with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Martin Englert
Martin Englert
Senior Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining at Seaport Research Partners

Hello, good morning, everyone.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Good morning.

Martin Englert
Martin Englert
Senior Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining at Seaport Research Partners

Question on conversion costs. They were pretty similar year-on-year around $465 per ton. Just wanted to see if what your thoughts were, if this was a reasonable range to expect on a go-forward basis, considering today's operating structure, or is this something that has an opportunity to come down as startup costs start to subside from some of the growth projects?

Dave Sumoski
Dave Sumoski
Chief Operating Officer at Nucor

Yeah, this is Dave Sumoski. Certainly some of the growth projects, especially Gallatin, has, you know, that's increased our cost based on some of the things that we've done up there and some of the, you know, it was a little bit slower of a starting than we had expected. So, we can expect the costs to come down a little bit, but not a lot. And Gallatin's running at a really good rate now. Like I said, we're probably near full run rate, so we're going to be in a good spot this year.

Martin Englert
Martin Englert
Senior Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining at Seaport Research Partners

Okay. And, I just wanted to circle back on the discussion of plate and structural, and this is from the mill perspective, looking at the plate volumes and the beam volumes. There was just year-on-year divergent trends when you look at the quarterly, where you saw plate come down in 4Q, but had been growing, and then you had the opposite in structural products. Anything else to add there as far as color as to why those would have pivoted so differently through the course of the year?

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Sure, Martin, hey, this is Al Behr again. I'll start with plate. You know, so yeah, year-over-year growth, but you see same quarter year-over-year, we took a step back. A lot of that is just we're not going to chase cheap tons. And in Q4, we had some imports come in, and those spreads just got to be where we're not going to load our books with tons that aren't profitable and aren't going to drive returns for us. So I think that'll change as we move forward. And you know, I spoke to our outlook for 2024 in plate. In beams, yeah, you saw a really great quarter in beams. Part of that speaks to the resiliency of the market, and Brad spoke to that. We spoke to that.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

It just remains a resilient market, and there's plenty of areas of strength where we can go and compete and win, and you see that. But part of that is also the breadth of Nucor's portfolio. And some of those tons you see in the beam group are tons to our downstream customers, Skyline being one of them, that won some nice projects, and you'll see them ship those tons through the first half as they convert and perform. So there's just always, you know, Nucor's success is a multilayered story. There's always a cylinder firing, and the numbers that you see, I think, just reflect that, especially on the beam side.

Martin Englert
Martin Englert
Senior Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining at Seaport Research Partners

Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you, and congratulations on the long-term return profile.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Thank you, Martin.

Operator

The next question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP. Please go ahead.

Tristan Gresser
Head of Steel Equity Research at BNP

Yes, hi, thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on capital allocation, and thank you for touching on the M&A situation. If I could just have a quick follow-up there. When you look at the pipeline of opportunities, is it fair to assume that most of—well, all those opportunities are inside the U.S., and you're not looking at opportunity use abroad? And in the past, when you look at the balance between organic and inorganic, I wonder if you could comment a little bit where in the priority list greenfield projects you are, essentially. That's my first question. Thank you.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

Yeah, Tristan, I'll, I'll kick it off, and certainly let Steve Laxton share any additional comments. But, you know, if, if you as you look at our M&A pipeline, you think about our, our strategies, we think about growing the core and expanding beyond. You know, what we've said is roughly we expect over the next five, six years, that we would begin to generate about 20%-25% of our overall revenues through Expand Beyond businesses. So we're, we're moving to that. So it, it sort of gives you a, a rough breakdown to where you're going to see us continue to, to think about growth, where we're going to continue to channel our, our, our capital dollars.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

You know, regarding the geography, I would tell you, yeah, it's probably a safe bet that Nucor is going to stay in North America, though, that's the sector of this economy that we know the best, where we have the most advantages to use the strengths of Nucor from our culture, our team, our conversion model, and understanding as the market leader in 12 of the 14 major steel market end categories. We've been in business a long time. We understand the, you know, the boundaries around this industry, and we also understand our customers and where they're wanting to go. We're making investments not for our benefits. We're making investments not to be the largest by volume. We're being disciplined in those investments to create capability sets that our customers can continue to grow their businesses and continue to flourish.

Tristan Gresser
Head of Steel Equity Research at BNP

All right. That's, that's helpful moving on to maybe the rebar market. Can you discuss a little bit the demand trends you've been seeing there over the past couple of weeks? And we've seen the price hikes coming through, putting an end to some metal spread compression. Do you see any reason on the ground to expect further moderation, or you believe the market has now found kind of a new equilibrium there? Thank you.

John Hollatz
John Hollatz
EVP of Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products at Nucor

Yeah, Tristan, this is John Hollatz. We did see some improved margins in rebar in the fourth quarter, and over the course of the year, you know, rebar remained pretty steady. As we've talked about these infrastructure projects and other demand in construction continuing to grow, we're bullish on the rebar market for the future.

Tristan Gresser
Head of Steel Equity Research at BNP

Okay. That's clear. Maybe last question then on plate. I know it has been discussed a bit, but in your outlook, the weakness you're seeing in heavy equipment or earthmoving machinery, how new is that? How severe is it? And in terms of outlook, I think you mentioned something. You said it would be steady. Should I understand it as weakness, those incoming part of portion of weakness being offset by, you know, more supportive construction infrastructure that is coming on? Yeah.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Yeah, Tristan, Al again. Is your question primarily just around that heavy equipment piece? I want to make sure I get that right.

Tristan Gresser
Head of Steel Equity Research at BNP

Yeah, the kind of red dot you put in the table, and that includes heavy equipment, earthmoving machinery. So some weakness you're seeing there, just trying to figure out if that's new and if it's severe. And then when you look at the outlook for metal spreads for plate, that have been pretty steady in January, is that something you expect to continue, or do you think that weakness you just flagged as could potentially imply some further moderation there?

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Okay. Let me address the heavy equipment piece. My comments about it declining, I wouldn't say are new in terms of the decline in that sector. That, that's been happening through the second half of the year. I wouldn't say we see that as a really strong decline going into 2024, because there's obviously, you know, with infrastructure, there's going to be some spending in that end-use market that will keep that somewhat buoyed. But we do see it continuing to decline a bit as one of several end markets where we serve with plate.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

So all of that put together with non-res construction and some of the other highlights that we talked about in those markets, our outlook for plate is relatively optimistic, just in terms of small, like, low single-digit incremental growth year-over-year, that there's plenty of different parts where we can compete separate from the ramp-up that we'll have in Brandenburg, where we'll grab some incremental tons just by that alone. Is that helpful?

Tristan Gresser
Head of Steel Equity Research at BNP

Yes, that's really helpful. Thank you for the call.

Al Behr
Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Curt Woodworth with UBS. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodworth
Curt Woodworth
Senior Analyst at UBS

Yeah, thanks. I just had a quick follow-up on capital spending outlook. So of the growth capital you've outlined for this year, how much of that will carry over into next year? And can you just remind us on the timeline of when you think the West Virginia will start to ramp? And then you also noted a potential, I think, new micro mill bar project in the Pacific Northwest. If you could just comment on that. Thank you.

Steve Laxton
Steve Laxton
EVP and CFO at Nucor

Yeah, Curt, this is Steve. The $3.5 billion projection is our expectation for 2024. And I think if you're trying to extrapolate what future years are going to be, some of those projects, like West Virginia, are going to push our capital spending into 2025, higher than historic averages. But likely, you know, if you're penciling out something, it's probably below that $3.5 billion, if you're trying to look for a direction. But north of $3 billion, if I would guess. And in terms of when West Virginia is completed, it'll be in 2026. So that's, you know, that's a project that'll keep going for some time for us.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

And then, Curt, your last question on, you know, the exploration in the Pacific Northwest.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

What I would tell you is we're doing just that. Again, it's a market we've been in for two decades. You know, our team in Seattle continues to do an incredible job. And again, we're going to continue to evaluate that market, recognizing the customers that we serve in that market and where that most makes sense, and you know, stay tuned.

Curt Woodworth
Curt Woodworth
Senior Analyst at UBS

Great. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.

Leon Topalian
Leon Topalian
Chair, President, and CEO at Nucor

In closing, I just want to say thank you to our Nucor team members for another great year in 2023. As we begin 2024, let's make sure we take care of our most important value, the health, safety, and well-being of our Nucor family. Thank you to our customers for the trust you placed in us with each and every order, and thank you to our shareholders for the valuable capital that you entrust us with each and every day. Have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Al Behr
      Al Behr
      EVP of Plate and Structural Products
    • Brad Ford
      Brad Ford
      EVP of Fabricated Construction Products
    • Dan Needham
      Dan Needham
      EVP of Commercial
    • Dave Sumoski
      Dave Sumoski
      Chief Operating Officer
    • Greg Murphy
      Greg Murphy
      EVP of Business Services and Sustainability
    • Jack Sullivan
      Jack Sullivan
      General Manager of Investor Relations
    • John Hollatz
      John Hollatz
      EVP of Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
    • Leon Topalian
      Leon Topalian
      Chair, President, and CEO
    • Steve Laxton
      Steve Laxton
      EVP and CFO
Analysts
    • Bill Peterson
      Equity Research at JPMorgan
    • Curt Woodworth
      Senior Analyst at UBS
    • Katja Jancic
      Metals and Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
    • Martin Englert
      Senior Equity Research Analyst of Metals and Mining at Seaport Research Partners
    • Timna Tanners
      Managing Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research
    • Tristan Gresser
      Head of Steel Equity Research at BNP
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