Kimberly-Clark Q3 2023 Earnings Report

Kimberly-Clark EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.74
• Consensus EPS: $1.58
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.16
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.40

Kimberly-Clark Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $5.10 billion
• Expected Revenue: $5.16 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$57.44 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +0.90%

Kimberly-Clark Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2023
• Date: 10/24/2023
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, October 24, 2023
• Conference Call Time: 8:30AM ET

Kimberly-Clark (NASDAQ:KMB) is a global manufacturer of personal care and consumer tissue products. The company develops and markets products designed to support personal hygiene, health and well-being in households, healthcare settings and workplaces.

Its portfolio includes well-known brands such as Huggies diapers and training pants, Kleenex facial tissues, Cottonelle toilet paper and wipes, Scott toilet paper and paper towels, Kotex feminine care products, and Depend and Poise incontinence care products. Kimberly-Clark also provides professional hygiene and workplace solutions through its Kimberly-Clark Professional business.

Founded in 1872, Kimberly-Clark is headquartered in Irving, Texas, and sells products in countries and territories around the world. Its operations serve consumers, retailers, healthcare providers and commercial customers across numerous international markets.

Kimberly-Clark Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Organic sales increased 5% year‐over‐year and adjusted EPS grew 24%, leading management to raise the full‐year organic sales growth outlook to 4–5% and EPS guidance to 15–17%.
• Gross margin expanded 530 basis points to 35.8%, surpassing pre‐pandemic levels, driven by revenue growth management programs, input cost tailwinds, and $90 million in FORCE productivity savings.
• The Personal Care segment delivered 7% organic sales growth and 2% volume growth—its first positive volume performance in five quarters—fueled by innovations and easing supply constraints.
• Worsening currency headwinds are now projected to reduce full‐year net sales by about 300 basis points and cut bottom‐line profits by approximately $450 million, up from prior estimates.
• Net commodity cost outlook improved, with full‐year headwinds trimmed to ~$50 million versus $100 million previously, though other manufacturing costs are now expected to rise by $250 million and ad spend to increase ~100 basis points.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Christina Cheng. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

[Christina Cheng, VP of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark]

Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements, and you should not place any undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to deviate materially from our expectations. Our remarks today refer to adjusted results, which exclude certain items described in our news release. We use non-GAAP financial measures to help investors understand our ongoing business performance. Please consult our press release for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures. We have published supplemental materials, which are found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

[Christina Cheng, VP of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark]

Participating in today's call are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Hsu, and our Chief Financial Officer, Nelson Urdaneta. Mike will start the discussion with our strategic priorities and provide an overview of our performance for the quarter. Nelson will provide a detailed discussion on our Q3 results and our outlook before we open the floor to Q&A. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Thank you, Cristina. We delivered another quarter of strong results. I'm proud of how our teams around the world are executing our growth strategy. Our innovation and commercial programs are contributing to top-line momentum, with improving volume and market share trends and strong gross margin expansion. Based on the strength of our year-to-date performance, we are raising our full-year outlook. Third quarter and year-to-date organic sales increased 5%, with growth across all segments. Personal care, our largest business, led the way with 7% organic growth and importantly, 2% volume growth. Further gains in price and mix were enabled by strong revenue growth management capability, while volume improved sequentially for a third consecutive quarter. We expect volume trends to continue improving as we cycle prior pricing actions and continue to invest in our brands. We also continue to make excellent progress on margin recovery.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Gross margin was up 530 basis points and exceeded 2019 levels, an important milestone in our commitment to restore our gross margin. Operating profit was up 18%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 24%. Given the strength of our year-to-date performance, we're raising our 2023 outlook. We now expect organic sales to grow 4%-5% and adjusted earnings per share to increase 15%-17%. Global demand in our categories and for our brands remains resilient. In key markets, we're seeing a healthier balance of growth in both price and volume. In North America Consumer, organic sales were up 7%, with volume up 3%. Dynamics were similar in EMEA. In China, organic sales and volume were both up double digits despite ongoing category softness.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

While growth across D&E continues to be mixed, consumption increased double digits in Latin America. In our largest markets, our market shares are improving. In North America, we saw sequential improvement in six of eight categories. This was enabled by strong commercial execution, marketing activation, and a significant easing of year-to-date supply constraints in personal care and facial tissue. In the U.K., new performance-enhancing designs, price pack offerings, and digital initiatives have resulted in over 200 basis points of year-over-year share gains for Andrex. And in China, we're continuing to see strong market share momentum, with Huggies share up nearly 200 basis points in the quarter. As market leaders, we're raising the bar by elevating and expanding our categories with superior products and advanced technology to address unmet needs.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

We're also committed to meeting consumers where they need us by offering a comprehensive range of products across the value spectrum. I'll highlight a few examples. In China, we introduced a breakthrough design for Huggies, with innovation that whisks away both forms of babies' mess to reduce the frequency of diaper rash. This is a foundational element of our global skin health platform. In North America, we launched new Poise 7-drop ultra-absorbency pads and 8-drop overnights. These higher capacity designs provide better absorbency and protection than daytime pads. Also in North America Tissue, Scott 1,000 lasts longer and dissolves faster, and this has been core to Scott's powerful proposition among value-oriented consumers, and it's why Scott continues to deliver robust growth in this important daily use segment.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

We believe our ongoing investment in advanced technology and brand communications will attract more consumers, increase usage occasions, and ultimately grow our categories. I'm proud of the progress we've made to offset the multiyear impact of inflation on our P&L…. Restoring margins to pre-pandemic levels was a milestone and not our end goal. We will continue to expand margins by executing our commercial and productivity programs to deliver balanced and sustainable growth for the long term. I'll now turn it over to Nelson to provide more details on our third quarter and outlook for the remainder of the year.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Thanks, Mike. We delivered another quarter of strong results across the company. Net sales were $5.1 billion, up 2% versus last year. Organic sales increased 5%, led by high single-digit growth in the personal care segment and in North America. Volume improved sequentially for the third quarter in a row to -1%, while price realization was 5% and mix contributed 1 point of growth. Currency negatively impacted net sales by approximately 200 basis points. The exit of our Brazil tissue business had an additional impact of 100 basis points, primarily on consumer tissue and our professional business. Let me spend a few minutes on each of our segments. First, personal care organic sales increased 7% this quarter. Price realization drove 4 points of growth and mix contributed 1%.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Volume turned positive for the first time in five quarters, with an increase of 2%. North America and developing and emerging markets organic sales grew in the high single digits, with volume increases in North America. Developed markets grew low single digits. Within personal care, each of our subcategories grew high single digits. Operating margin for the segment improved 250 basis points versus a year ago, driven by gross margin improvement, while we continue to increase our investments in our brands. Second, organic growth in consumer tissue was 2%. Within consumer tissue, North America delivered 4% organic growth, driven by healthy demand in dry bath and towels. Outstanding results from the UK drove 2% growth in the developed markets on top of last year's 11% increase.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Operating margin for the segment was up 320 basis points versus a year ago, driven by revenue growth management and improved service levels. Finally, our K-C Professional business posted 4% organic growth, despite challenging comparisons against last year. On a two-year average, organic sales growth was 7%. Demand for our washroom business remains healthy, and new commercial programs drove share gains in North America. Strong revenue realization was partially offset by lower volumes, which were partly driven by the timing of select planned price adjustments. Operating margin for professional improved by 550 basis points, which was broadly in line with the first half of 2023. Turning to the rest of the P&L. Third quarter gross margin increased 530 basis points to 35.8%.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Revenue growth management, input cost tailwinds, and about $90 million in FORCE savings, more than offset other manufacturing costs and currency headwinds. The cost environment remains mixed, with favorability in raw materials offset by higher energy prices, currency headwinds, and higher labor costs. Other manufacturing costs were $30 million higher than last year. BTL spending was 20.7% of net sales, up 310 basis points versus a year ago, reflecting year-on-year inflation and investments in our brands, our people, and our capabilities. These results also reflect higher year-on-year incentive compensation accruals. Operating profit for the quarter increased 18%, and operating margin improved by 210 basis points to 15.1%.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

This includes a currency headwind of $135 million, or a 21 percentage point profit impact, of which four points were due to the translation of earnings from non-U.S. operations, and the balance was largely driven by transactional costs. Lastly, the adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter was 22.5%, in line with last year's 22.3%. Our operating results, coupled with lower net interest expense and gains in equity income, drove a 24% growth in adjusted earnings per share to $1.74 in the third quarter. Turning to balance sheet and cash flow highlights. Through the first nine months of the year, we generated $2.3 billion in cash flow from operations. Capital spending was $549 million, compared to $679 million last year.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

We expect to end the year with CapEx of approximately $800 million. Yea-to-date, we returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Now, let me say a few words about our outlook. Based on our strong results, we are raising our full year guidance. We now expect organic sales growth of 4%-5% and net sales growth of 1%-2%, reflecting the impact of unfavorable currency and divestitures. We also now expect adjusted earnings per share growth of 15%-17%. Currency headwinds continue to worsen given the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the Argentine peso and other key currencies.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Based on recent currency forward curves, we are projecting that currency will have a negative top line impact of approximately 300 basis points and a bottom line headwind of approximately $450 million, up from our previous assumption of $300-$400 million for the year. On input costs, we now expect headwinds of approximately $50 million versus the previous outlook of $100 million. Other manufacturing costs are now expected to increase by approximately $250 million, compared to $200 million in our prior outlook. With gross margins returning to pre-pandemic levels in the quarter, we remain focused on driving cost discipline and productivity to create more fuel for growth. For the full year, we project FORCE to deliver $300 million to $350 million, reflecting favorable results from ongoing negotiations of our materials purchases.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Continued progress in gross margin recovery puts us in a great position to advance our commercial programs, and we continue to expect advertising spend to increase by approximately 100 basis points for the full year. Overall, we now expect operating margin to increase 170 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance, compared to an increase of 150 basis points in our July guidance. Below the line, net interest expense is expected to decline in the high single digits. We have also updated our assumption for adjusted tax rate to 23%-24%. These improvements result in our full year outlook for adjusted earnings per share growth of 15%-17%.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

In closing, while we continue to operate in a volatile environment, we remain focused on executing our growth strategy, including continued investments in our brands and capabilities for long-term value creation. With that, we will open the floor for questions.

[Operator]

Certainly. Everyone at this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone at this time. We do ask, though, while posing your question, please pick up your handset if you're listening on speakerphone, to provide optimum sound quality. Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone. Please hold while we poll for questions. Your first question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

[Chris Carey, Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Hi, good morning.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hey, Chris.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hey, Chris.

[Chris Carey, Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo]

One question just around commodities. Clearly continuing to see favorability, but we have seen some firming of late, and I just wonder how you see things over kind of a near- to medium-term horizon from specifically the commodity basket. Basically, trying to balance the fact that you're seeing favorability this year, you have hedges and there's timing impacts that aren't really going to impact this year, but just how you're watching this overall commodity environment. I'm really asking in the context of, you know, the potential need to take pricing against volumes and how that balance is going to work over the medium term.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah, I'll, I'll start with a quick comment and then, and I'll ask Nelson to kind of give you a lot more additional context and detail. But, you know, one, Chris, I'd say, hey, we finally saw inflection in the cost environment for us. As, as you know, we've taken on a lot of inflation over the past couple of years, and even this year, you know, the plan was, additional, you know, between currency and commodities, about $500 million of impact. And, and so in the quarter, it's our first quarter where, where the costs actually were favorable. And so that's a significant inflection point for us. I do expect input costs to be a modest tailwind, you know, going forward, but don't expect necessarily that there's going to be a lot, you know, a lot that's come behind that.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

The one thing is, though, we do believe, you know, and I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, that, hey, it's our job to expand margins over time, and we believe we have a lot of opportunity to do that on an ongoing basis between what we're doing on the revenue side and also on the cost side. But, Nelson, maybe-

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah, just to elaborate a little, Chris, on what Mike was walking you through. So at this stage, what we've seen in the quarter, and it's playing out the way we had forecast back in July. In general, the savings that we're seeing are driven by pulp, distribution, and other commodities. And, we've actually seen some increases, especially as we look forward on resin-based materials and energy costs. We had our first quarter of a benefit, so $75 million. And as you remember, for the first half of the year, we were negative around $190 million. Based on where we stand today, we still project that we will be favorable in the fourth quarter of the year by an amount that's not that dissimilar from what we had in the fourth quarter of the year.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

For the full year, we would be around $50 million in terms of commodities, negatively impacted. One thing to keep in mind is, you know, we've also been driving a lot of benefits, Chris, through our FORCE program. Remember, we engage in negotiations in some of the materials where there's no clear market for us to engage in hedging, and we've been actively pursuing this over the last few quarters. So that's also been a contributor for FORCE, which includes our net negotiated material prices, and that's flowed through. As Mike said, we don't expect tremendous tailwinds going forward, but we're pleased with where, you know, the overall costs are at this stage.

[Chris Carey, Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo]

That's very helpful. And then one follow-up just on personal care and specifically the North America, you know, part of the personal care division. The volume growth there, can you just talk to, you know, the durability, what year-ago comps had to do with that? And then within the North America business, I wonder if you can talk about what categories are driving this. Thank you.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah, great question, Chris. I'll give you the thing, maybe a view on a couple different components. You know, one, I'd say overall North America consumption remains robust, and I think that really does reflect the essential nature of our category. Our consumption in North America for KC was up mid-single digit with solid growth across all categories. You know, and then, you know, I think, you know, one thing I did mention in the prepared remarks is we are coming off some fairly significant supply constraints that affected, you know, most of our personal care businesses and our Kleenex business, mostly throughout the year. And so, you know, we did have shipments that were a little higher than consumption in. I'll give you an example.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

In baby care, organic shipments were up in the teens, low teens, while consumption was up about between 3% and 4%. So that really reflects, I think, retailers getting their inventories back in position. You know, we had been allocating shipments on Huggies since the beginning of the year, and, you know, we had a pretty significant supply situation with a supplier outage that had constrained our volume. It's actually kind of constrained our share throughout the course of the year on a number of brands. And so we came out of that. We came off allocation across all brands at some point in mid-September, and so that's kind of why shipments were probably ended up in the quarter a little bit higher.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

And on the comp, Chris, also remember the last year in Q3, in September, we had a bit of a destock, so, that's also kind of weighing in. But very pleased with where we ended up, and, more importantly, the underlying consumption in North America.

[Chris Carey, Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay, thanks so much.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Okay. Thanks, Chris.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Anna Lizzul from Bank of America. Your line is live.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Morning.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hi, Anna.

[Anna Lizzul, VP of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Good morning. Thank you for the question. I also had a question on the better gross margins, which clearly benefited from the lower input costs. You know, I was wondering, you know, are you seeing a reversal of that recently with the input costs, like the higher oil prices? Just to follow up on Chris's question. And also, if you can elaborate on what drove the better cost savings in FORCE this quarter. Thank you.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Sure. So, a few things. You know, as we go through the second half of the year, we still, as I indicated to Chris, we still expect to have, based on current assumptions, favorability on commodities, heading into Q4 on a net basis. Because remember, through the first half of the year, we were around $190 million negative. We were 75 favorable in the third quarter, and we're calling for the full year an estimate of $50 million of a headwind in net. So we still expect to be favorable in the fourth quarter. Having said that, we're of course watchful of what's happening with the oil markets and the implications for resins. They don't immediately impact the resins, but we have seen resins begin to plateau at the level of prices.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

In fact, I mean, curves are starting to move a little bit upwards, and we're watching that. But overall, we still expect commodities to be down over the next quarter or so, at least. The other bit in Gross Margin, as you said, was FORCE. We had a strong delivery of FORCE savings for the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we're at $275 million, and we've actually taken up our call for the year to $300 million-$350 million. So, you know, net-net, I mean, we are encouraged by the overall cost savings and our program in FORCE. And in terms of Gross Margin, keep in mind, it's not linear.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

We don't expect gross margins to grow linearly quarter after quarter because there are always puts and takes quarter to quarter. But having hit the 35.8% mark is an important milestone for us as we look forward to then expand margins down the road.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

And then, Anna, maybe just, like, additional comment. And I think maybe the underlying your question and Chris's before was, hey, there appears to be some underlying volatility in costs, input costs, and there likely is. And then we've dealt with that significantly over the past several years. I would say long, you know, longer term, you know, we believe it's our job to continue to enhance margins, so we would remain disciplined in terms of our revenue management program and capability and also our cost management capability.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

And again, just another item to add, Anna, as you think about, you know, the next few quarters is currency. Currency has gotten more volatile. I mean, we've seen the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and as you would have seen in our outlook, we did take up our expected headwinds from currency on our operating profit. And again, we're watching that carefully as we think about 2024.

[Anna Lizzul, VP of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Great. That's very helpful. Just as a follow-up, you did have the benefit from better than expected pricing in the quarter while volumes were soft, but you did see a nice sequential improvement in the change of volumes from Q2 to Q3. I was wondering how we should think about the sequential improvement potentially from Q3 to Q4 in volumes?

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Well, we've had, I would say, four quarters of successive volume improvement. So I think we were down seven, down five, down three, whatever, down one. And importantly, personal care, you know, volumes were up this quarter. So I, I'd say, you know, we're making solid progress. We're seeing solid volume momentum, and I think I said in the prepared remarks that, you know, we would expect, you know, continued improvement. You know, we're not ready to call 2024 yet, but, you know, I think volume-- you know, we've cycled most of our big pricing actions from last year, and so we would expect volume trends to continue to improve as we drive, you know, our commercial programs and invest behind our brands. Yeah.

[Anna Lizzul, VP of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Javier Escalante from Evercore ISI. Your line is live.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Javier, good morning.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hi, Javier.

[Javier Escalante, Research Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Hey, hey, guys. Good morning, everyone. My question has to do with the pricing side, particularly in North America, which is 80% of your profits and is where we have more visibility on. The pricing seems to be constructive, right, for private label. Promotional levels are below 2019.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yep.

[Javier Escalante, Research Analyst at Evercore ISI]

But we did see a little bit of a pickup on your end, at least in track channels. So if you can talk about what it is promotionally, is it what categories? What's the point? Is it because they're—some of your categories are coming out of allocation? If you can comment on that, and then I have a more strategic question after that.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah, that... Well, I'd say part one, Javier, you know, I think I said this in the past, and philosophically, you know, you know, I think we view trade promotion as a path to drive trial, especially of new items. And so that's kind of where it fits in our, in our, you know, marketing mix. And so I'm not a fan of using promotion to rent or borrow share for a period of time. And so I think any data that you might say, you know, I'd say we are promoting, you know, still below, as you point out, 2019 levels, but, you know, but I think we have participated in some promotions.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

I did see your note, and I would say one thing that kind of skews the analysis a little bit is this whole metric. The denominator is EQ, right? Or equivalent units. And for all the tissue categories, the equivalent unit is 10,000 sheets, and for diapers, it's 1,000 diapers. And so on. When you do it on that basis or on a per piece basis, you know, what happens, especially in our consumer tissue business, is, you know, Scott Thousand, by definition, has 1,000 sheets. And so that's about, you know, let's say, between 4 and 6 times more than any other brands.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

So that tends to skew kind of the measures a little bit and makes us look a little bit underpriced when you do it on an EQ basis. But overall, you know, I think we're, you know, we've taken pricing. We've probably moved faster on pricing than other brands, and so I'd say, you know, to me, our normal price gaps have begun to normalize.

[Javier Escalante, Research Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Very helpful, on the note. The other is, given the setup, right, do you think that there is the possibility of gross margins going forward to be higher than 2019, given the mix, given the... If you add volume plus mix, you are already running flat. Do you think that that is possible, that, you know, going forward, we're gonna be operating at gross margins above 2019 levels? Or there is something structural that cannot happen.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

All right, Javier, I'll start, and then I'll let Nelson correct me. But I would say, you know, that's our job, and so, you know, from my chair, I would say we have to do it, right? And the backstory, and I know you came on last year or so, Javier, but you know, when I came into this role, you know, the three things that we set out to do was, one, accelerate organic growth, you know, second, reduce our earnings volatility, and the third thing, importantly, is enhance our margins. And so that was a fundamental goal, you know, when I came into this role.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

The kind of curveball that came in between that was COVID, the demand shocks, supply shocks, and everything else, and the inflation shocks. And so, you know, you know, so, you know, over the last couple of years, we said, "Hey, we've got an interim goal of, one, we got to restore our margins," which, you know, I think this quarter kind of marks, you know, a pretty significant point for us that, hey, we are back to, you know, pre-COVID or 2019 levels. You know, but still, you know, that as we talk internally, it's our job to enhance margins from here. And that's, that's what I was saying, is we have to continue to be disciplined around our commercial programming, our innovation, our revenue management, and also just as disciplined on the cost program.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

I still see further opportunity for us to expand our margins. Maybe I'll ask Nelson to kind of give you some more specifics around the near term.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah. So, Javier, just to build on what Mike said, I mean, and we've been talking about this, you know, since we hit our lowest point in gross margin at, you know, 29.8% about five quarters ago. And our whole point was that we were gonna get back to the 35%, which was a milestone and not an end state. And really, what's happened is we've made, and we've been making, and you can see it, significant investments behind building capabilities in the organization. So we've been building a lot of muscle around revenue growth management, and this includes price pack architecture and the ability to have also the right packs and sizes and formats for the different customers that we deal with across the globe. Secondly is around productivity.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

We've made sure that we strengthen and buttress our overall gross margin, productivity pipeline, and that remains strong today. And you can see how we've been delivering that over time, and we intend to deliver ongoing productivity, gross productivity, as an element to drive that. And then the other bit is around, you know, our innovation. We've increased our focus around innovation. Last year, it drove 60% of our revenue growth, and it's accretive innovation. And if you combine these three, that's really the way we're staring at expanding margins over time, gross margins, and that's truly what's gonna drive, you know, balanced and sustainable growth for years to come for us.

[Javier Escalante, Research Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Thank you very, very much, okay? Congratulations.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Thank you, Javier.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Thanks, Javier.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Morning, Steve.

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thank you, and good morning, guys. Hey, so two questions. The first one, just, Nelson, maybe you could expand a bit on the other manufacturing cost inflation, and the higher call for the year that you've made today. Just maybe a little bit of further detail as to the drivers there and where we are in that cycle as we look forward.

[Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO at Kimberly-Clark]

Sure. So, as you indicate, we took our call from $200 million to $250 million. Through the first three quarters of the year, we're close to $200 million, just a tad below. And, you know, what's really driving this is a few things. One, keep in mind that a lot of the service inflation and lease inflation, et cetera, and some cost inflation flow through this number, and it's being weighed in by some of the hyperinflationary economies that we deal with. So we're being impacted on that end, because we've seen some costs accelerate outside of the U.S., Steve. So that's part of what's driving that $250 million, based on where we're at at this stage.

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. Okay, thank you for that. And then, Mike, maybe bigger picture, you know, you've talked about the higher A&P and marketing spending this year, and just in general, there's been a lot of strategic growth initiatives and commercial investments that you've been making. I guess, as you think about the you know, the aggregate investment that you've made over the last couple of years in that regard, just where do you think you are in versus your long-term strategic priorities? And do you see, you know, opportunity or need to kinda continue to invest at an accelerated pace, as we think about next year? Is that a... Is it an investment year?

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Is it a year where you're growing investments more in line with sales, or are you at a point where you can actually start to leverage and lever from a margin expansion standpoint, some of the investments that you've been making over the past couple of years? Thank you.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hey, yeah. Thanks, Steve. You know, I'm really pleased with the team. You know, we are delivering what we set out to do, which is balanced and sustainable growth. You know, as you could see, the organic momentum remains very strong. The margins are coming along. We've, as we mentioned, restored them to pre-COVID levels, and so we feel good about that. I would say, you know, we've made a lot of progress in the investment. We've made a lot of progress in building improved capability. We've made a lot of progress in improving our innovation capability and the innovation pipeline.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

I think over the last five years, we're probably up a couple hundred basis points in advertising investment. You know, I think from there, we really need to make that investment. At this point, we're approaching 6% of overall sales, and so I would say that's competitive in our business. It's perhaps not as much as our primary global competitor, but, you know, you know, our plan is not to outspend them, you know? And our plan would be to drive great innovation, great commercial programming and have a competitive spend. And so I don't expect...

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

You know, Steve, you know, I don't think I'll go and say, "Hey, we need to continue with, you know, increase advertising investment in a straight line infinitely." You know, you know, do I think there's some opportunity for us to continue to invest? Yes. But, you know, do I think we also have to leverage the investments we've already made better? Yes.

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Don't know if that answers-

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah, no. So I play it back, it sounds like you've... The catch-up that you might have identified, you know, four or five years ago, you feel like you've done, and now it's more opportunistic spend, where there's a clear ROI, but you don't feel a huge need to, you know, catch up because you're underspending.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah, because five years ago, we were spending in the threes, and so that, that was-

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

I think I felt like too low for a company, you know, of the categories that we operate in. You know, I feel competitive at this point, but, you know, we also have great opportunities to spend on, and our ROIs are great. And so, especially, you know, as we continue to migrate more and more to digital, and so there's gonna be plenty of things that we're gonna wanna invest in.

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Very good. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Once again, everyone, if you have any questions or comments, please press star then one on your phone. Your next question is coming from Andrea Teixeira from J.P. Morgan. Your line is live.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hey, Andrea.

[Shabana Sequeira, Division Manager at JPMorgan]

Hi.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hey, Andrea.

[Shabana Sequeira, Division Manager at JPMorgan]

Hi, this is Shabana on for Andrea.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Hi, Shabana.

[Shabana Sequeira, Division Manager at JPMorgan]

Hi, thank you for the question. I just wanted to ask you, can you please add color on your views regarding carryover pricing into 2024, and how to think about the, possibly the need to roll back some of this pricing into 2024, especially with retailers seeing some commodities coming in better? I mean, I understand you just elaborated that pulp is lower, but, resin may potentially go up, especially with oil coming in higher. If you could just, like, in aggregate, give us a little bit more picture. Thank you.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Yeah, maybe I'll start. I would say, you know, we most of our pricing went in last year, and so we did have some pricing this year, so there will be a little carryover. I wouldn't say it's a huge driver of, you know, will be a huge driver of the plan next year. Given what we just discussed on the cost environment, you can see costs this year are still up, you know, after being up significantly in 2021 and 2022. And so, you know, we're not seeing a ton of deflation. You know, while there might be, you know, we're starting to see some modest tailwinds, you know, that may continue for a few quarters, but I'm not seeing, you know, at least on, you know, in the near term, you know, huge deflation.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

We have rolled back some pricing because notably in Professional in Europe, you know, we had energy costs that, you know, really shot up and then came back down, and so we have adjusted some pricing in some markets, and we'll do that, you know, where it makes sense. But, you know, in general, you know, I think we've priced appropriately, you know, for the cost environment that we anticipated, and that environment is playing out as thus far as we expected.

[Shabana Sequeira, Division Manager at JPMorgan]

Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I'll now hand the conference back to Chief Executive Officer, Mike Hsu, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

[Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO at Kimberly-Clark]

Okay. Well, as I said, you know, proud of the team that we're, you know, we are successfully delivering balanced and sustainable growth. You know, thank you for your interest in Kimberly-Clark, and we will see you next quarter.

[Operator]

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

Participants

Executives

• Christina Cheng, VP of Investor Relations
• Mike Hsu, Chairman and CEO
• Nelson Urdaneta, Senior VP and CFO

Analysts

• Anna Lizzul, VP of Equity Research at Bank of America
• Chris Carey, Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Javier Escalante, Research Analyst at Evercore ISI
• Shabana Sequeira, Division Manager at JPMorgan
• Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank