WEC Energy Group Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 31, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • WEC delivered $1.00 EPS in Q3, up $0.04 year-over-year, and reaffirmed 2023 guidance of $4.58–4.62 assuming normal weather.
  • The company unveiled its largest-ever $23.4 billion capital plan for 2024–2028—16% above prior spend—to support 8.1% annual rate base growth and 6.5–7% EPS CAGR.
  • WEC’s ESG progress plan accelerates investment in 3,800 MW of renewables, modern natural-gas generation, LNG storage, and transmission hardening, targeting an 80% CO2 reduction by 2030 and full coal exit by 2032.
  • The financing mix is projected at 65% cash from operations, 28% debt and 7% equity—equating to $1.8–2.2 billion of common equity over five years—using DRIP, employee plans and at-market programs.
  • Regulatory milestones include a pending Wisconsin reopener decision, an Illinois ALJ recommendation of 9.83% ROE with a final order expected by November, and approved rate settlements in Minnesota and Michigan.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
WEC Energy Group Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to WEC Energy Group's conference call for Q3 2023 Results. This call is being recorded for rebroadcast, and all participants are in a listen-only mode at this time. Before the conference call begins, I remind you that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time. Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they are made. In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated. During the discussions, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share, unless otherwise noted.

Operator

After the presentation, the conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wecenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of this call. Now it's my pleasure to introduce Gale Klappa, Executive Chairman of WEC Energy Group.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

From America's Heartland, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our results for the Q3 of 2023. First, I'd like to introduce the members of our management team who are here with me today. We have Scott Lauber, our President and Chief Executive, Xia Liu, our Chief Financial Officer, and Beth Straka, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations. As you saw from our news release this morning, we reported Q3 2023 earnings of $1 a share. We delivered another solid quarter of growth, and we remain on track for a strong 2023. Our focus on executing the fundamentals of our business is creating real value for our customers and our stockholders. Today, we're also reaffirming our earnings guidance for the year.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

The range is $4.56-$4.00. I'm sorry, $4.58-$4.62 a share, with an expectation of completing the year in the upper half of the range. As always, this assumes normal weather through the final quarter of 2023. Switching gears now, our big news for the day is the rollout of our ESG Progress Plan for the period 2024 through 2028. As you may have seen from our announcement this morning, we expect to invest $23.4 billion, with an ongoing focus on efficiency, sustainability, and growth. This is the largest capital plan in our history, an increase of $3.3 billion above our previous five-year plan. That's more than a 16% increase. Several factors are driving the investment outline in our updated ESG Progress Plan.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

The first of these factors is the economic growth we're seeing in the Milwaukee region, particularly in what we call the I-94 corridor in the southeastern part of the state between Milwaukee and the Illinois state line. From data centers to pharmaceuticals to microinverters for solar panels, from even more gummy bears to massive new distribution and fulfillment centers. And this growth is also spanning new commercial and residential development in the region. In our new five-year plan, we expect our asset base to grow at an average rate of 8.1% a year. And as we fund this growth with an appropriate financing package, we project our earnings per share will continue to rise at a compound annual rate of 6.5%-7% a year.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

As we've been discussing with you, our plan will include growth equity in the form of programmatic equity, including our dividend reinvestment plan, employee benefit plans, and at-the-market plans. There is no need for block equity in the five-year plan, and we'll start in 2024 by issuing $100 million-$200 million of new equity. Xia will provide you with more details on the financing plan in just a few minutes. I'd also like to point out a few other quick highlights for you. Over the next five years, we'll continue to make great progress in transforming our power generation fleet and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In the plan, for example, we're making a significant commitment to new solar, wind, and battery storage, as well as modern, efficient natural gas generation and LNG storage.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

In addition, we'll be adapting to the new seasonal capacity rules being put in place by MISO, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator. American Transmission Company will be adding needed transmission capability, and to help assure energy security for our customers, we'll continue to harden our distribution networks. On the environmental front, our plan still calls for reducing CO2 emissions from our power generation fleet by 80% by the end of 2030. I'm pleased to report that, assuming timely regulatory approvals, we now project a complete exit from coal 3 years earlier by the end of 2032. The future is bright. The investment opportunity is long, strong, and highly executable. Scott will provide you with some specifics in just a few minutes. Now a brief look at the regional economy. The unemployment rate in Wisconsin stands at 3.1%, continuing a long-running trend below the national average.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

As we look inside the numbers, we see an encouraging upward trend in Wisconsin's labor force participation this year. As I mentioned, growing companies are investing and expanding in our region. Microsoft is now moving dirt and moving full speed ahead to develop its new data center complex in that I-94 corridor we mentioned south of Milwaukee. Haribo officially opened the doors of its new confectionery plant in July. Fast forward to today, and Haribo is already planning to double the size of its production capability, adding more capacity for gummy bears, new technology, and additional employees. Also, south of Milwaukee, Uline plans to open a 1 million sq ft facility this year. Uline, in case you're not familiar with the name, is the leading distributor of shipping, industrial, and packaging materials for businesses throughout North America. Even more expansion is planned by Uline for 2025.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

These developments highlight the strength and the potential of the Wisconsin economy and underscore the need for the investments we're outlining in our five-year plan. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott for more specifics on our capital projects, our regulatory calendar, and our operational highlights. Scott, all yours.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you, Gale. I'd like to start with some of the specifics on our capital plan. As Gale noted, we have identified $3.3 billion of additional investments compared to our last five-year plan. I'll walk you through the changes. Between 2024 and 2028, we plan to increase our investment in renewables by $1.4 billion. With that, we expect to invest in 3,800 megawatts of new renewable capacity. In the plan is a billion-dollar increase in transmission investment. This is our share of the ATC plan. Renewable projects and regional growth are among the driving factors. To support reliable service for our customers, we expect to spend an additional $1.3 billion on natural gas generation over the five-year plan. This includes both combustion turbines and reciprocating internal combustion engines, or RICE units.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

We also have planned to invest an additional $800 million in liquefied natural gas capacity, which will be used for electric generation and for our natural gas operations on the coldest days of the year. With these important investments for our utilities, we have reduced our planned investment in our energy infrastructure segment. We'll be happy to share more details with you at the upcoming EEI conference. Now moving on to the regulatory front. As you recall, we expect a decision from the Wisconsin Commission before the end of the year on our limited reopener filings. We also have an update on our rate filings under review in Illinois for Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas. Recently, the administrative law judge on the case issued a proposed order largely consistent with staff's recommendation.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

The order recommends a 9.83% return on equity at both utilities, and we expect a final decision by the end of November. Moving to the other states, I'm pleased to report that both the Minnesota and Michigan commissions have recently approved settlements on our rate reviews. Meanwhile, we're making progress on a number of regulated capital projects. As you recall, we closed on our first option at the West Riverside Energy Center earlier this year, adding 100 megawatts of efficient combined cycle natural gas generation to our portfolio. Since our last call, we filed our request to purchase another 100 megawatts of Riverside capacity under our remaining option. Pending regulatory approval, we expect to invest $100 million to add this capacity in 2024. Elsewhere in the state, work continues on the Badger Hollow II solar facility and the Paris and Darien solar battery parks.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

You may recall we had solar panels waiting on final release from a bonded warehouse in Chicago. I'm happy to report that those panels are being cleared. The first 100 megawatts have been released, and the trucks are rolling to our Badger Hollow II site. We expect all of our panels to be released and in our possession by the end of this year. We are on track for Badger Hollow II to go into service late this year or early next year, with the Paris solar park to follow. In addition, work is underway on the Darien solar facility, which is planned to go into service by the end of 2024. We'll keep you updated on any future developments. With that, I'll turn things back to Gale.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Scott, thanks very much. Now just a quick reminder about our dividend. Our dividend growth continues to stand in the top decile of our industry. In fact, we were recently named one of the 10 best dividend stocks in America by Morningstar. As usual, I expect our board will assess our dividend plans for next year at our regularly scheduled meeting in December. We continue to target a payout ratio of 65%-70% of earnings. We're positioned well within that range now, so I expect our dividend growth will continue to be in line with the growth in our earnings per share. Next up, Xia will provide you with more information on our Q3 financials and a good bit of detail on our upcoming five-year financing plan. Xia, all yours.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Thanks, Gale. Our 2023 Q3 earnings of $1 per share increased $0.04 per share compared to the Q3 of 2022. Our earnings package includes a comparison of Q3 results on page 15. I'll walk through the significant drivers. Our earnings from utility operations were $0.18 above the Q3 of 2022. First, weather had an estimated $0.01 negative impact quarter-over-quarter. Higher depreciation and amortization expense and interest expense added another $0.09 of negative variance. These unfavorable variances were more than offset in the quarter. Rate based growth contributed $0.13 to earnings. This includes the base rate increase for our Wisconsin utilities as well as the interim rate increase for Minnesota Energy Resources. Additionally, timing of fuel expense improved our earnings by $0.13, and lower day-to-day O&M resulted in a $0.02 improvement.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Before I turn to earnings at the other segments, let me briefly discuss our weather-normalized sales for the quarter. You can find this sales information on page 11 of the earnings package. Retail electric deliveries in Wisconsin, excluding the iron ore mine, were down 0.8% quarter-over-quarter. This was driven by lower sales volumes to large commercial and industrial customers. Residential usage was up 1.3% and is ahead of our forecast through the first nine months of the year. Also, sales to our small commercial and industrial customers were up 0.4% and are tracking our forecast for the year. Regarding our investment in American Transmission Company, earnings decreased $0.05 compared to the Q3 of 2022. Recall that last year we recorded a $0.05 pickup from a resolution of MISO ROE appeals.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Earnings at our energy infrastructure segment decreased $0.01 in the Q3 of 2023 compared to the Q3 of 2022. This was mostly driven by lower wind production, partially offset by tax credits from projects that we placed into service. Finally, you'll see that earnings at our corporate and other segment decreased $0.08, largely due to higher interest expense. As Gale noted, we are reaffirming our annual guidance of $4.58-$4.62 per share. This includes October weather and assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year. Now, turning to our financing plan. Gale and Scott have already discussed the new five-year capital plan. I'll provide details related to our anticipated financing activities to support the plan. You can find this information on page 22 of the earnings package.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

As you can see on the chart, over the next five years, we expect cash from operations to fund about 65% of our cash needs. About 28% of the funding is expected to come from debt, and the remaining 7% from issuance of common equity. As Gale mentioned earlier, we expect to utilize dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans and equity market programs to tap into the equity market. Our common equity issuance is projected to be in the range of $100-$200 million for 2024 and $1.8-$2.2 billion over the next five-year plan. Recall, our equity ratios in our utilities are thicker, particularly at Wisconsin Electric. Supporting these thicker equity layers results in approximately $400 million of common equity raise. The remaining equity raise represents approximately 50% of incremental capital spend.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

As you know, our equity issuances post-2024 will be tied to our capital plan, ratably at approximately $450 million a year. This financing plan not only supports our long-term earnings growth rate but also helps maintain our targeted credit metrics. In addition, I'll quickly address our upcoming holding company refinancing needs. Over the next 3 years, we have total maturities of about $2.8 billion. The $600 million that matures in 2024 carries a very low coupon. However, the remaining $2.2 billion scheduled to mature in 2025 and 2026 has a weighted average coupon of just under 5%, which represents lower refinancing risk. In closing, as shown on the last page of the earnings package, through our capital allocation, we expect the percent of assets invested in our regulated electric businesses to grow faster.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

At the same time, the percent of assets in gas distribution and in contracted renewables is expected to decline. We are very excited about the investment opportunities ahead of us. With that, I'll turn it back to Gale.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

All right. Xia, thank you very much. Overall, we're on track, and the company continues to perform at a very high level. Operator, we're ready now for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

Operator

Now we will take your questions. The question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. To ask a question, please press the star key followed by the digit 1 on your phone. If you are using a speakerphone, turn off your mute function to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We will take as many questions as time permits. Once again, press star and then 1 on your phone to ask a question. Your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Rock and roll, Shar. How are you?

Shahriar Pourreza
Shahriar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim

Mr. Klappa, how are you doing?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Doing great.

Shahriar Pourreza
Shahriar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim

Excellent. Excellent. So Gale, obviously, in Xia's prepared remarks, she hit on why the equity guide was obviously somewhat large and what would be dictated by the growth CapEx increase. It's obviously because of the higher equity layers. I guess, how should we think about this in terms of the balance sheet capacity it gives you? How are the conversations with the current rating agencies? And related, are you done now through the trajectory, or could incremental CapEx lead to more equity? I mean, you do tend to raise CapEx every year, and the Microsoft opportunity is still out there. Thanks.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Yeah, great question, Shar. Well, first of all, kind of let me back up and reiterate a couple of things that Shar mentioned. I think you can look at and Shar touched on this, about $400 million of the equity raise, at least in my mind, I look at that as kind of a one-time catch-up because over the last rate case outcomes, we've received thicker equity layers virtually in every situation. So about $400 million of that really just goes to support really strong credit metrics at all of our utilities. So I would look at that particular $400 million chunk that Shar referred to, Shar, as kind of a one-time catch-up. And then to answer your question about further capital, and yes, the Microsoft plan is still being developed.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

We'll know a lot more in the next few months beyond what we've put in this plan related to Microsoft as they continue to refine their plan for the large complex that they're going to develop here in southeastern Wisconsin. But I think the way to look at it is that incremental capital beyond what's in the plan, probably equity is about 50% of that incremental capital. Xia, any other thoughts?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

No, you addressed it.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Okay. Shar, does that respond to your question?

Shahriar Pourreza
Shahriar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim

Fantastic. And then just the $3.3 billion, any sense on the profile of that CapEx, or is that an EEI update?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Let's walk through all of that in detail at EEI for you. We'll have a very specific breakdown for you at EEI. But I think clearly there's going to be some additional capital. I mean, we mentioned generation and LNG as kind of large contributors to the capital plan. So I think the outer years or the later years in the five-year plan will be larger than the first couple of years. I think the first couple of years, probably the increase will be more dominated by transmission in the first couple of years. And then as we build generation and as we build the LNG facilities, you'll see kind of a rise in that five-year capital plan. I will say this, there is no white space in that five-year capital plan. I mean, we have just tremendous opportunity in front of us.

Shahriar Pourreza
Shahriar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim

Got it. And that's how we should think about the profile of the equity, right, as it matches with the CapEx?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Absolutely. Yep. We will match the equity issuance with the capital investment each year.

Shahriar Pourreza
Shahriar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim

Got it. And then lastly, just moving to the infrastructure segment, it's a pretty big reduction, Gale, in spending there. Is that a function of a lack of opportunities despite our IRA, or is it more about making sure you kind of stay within that business risk profile and credit metrics to somewhat appease the agencies? I guess, how should we think about that segment on a go-forward basis? Thanks.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yeah, Shar, great question. Let me just first say, there's no lack of opportunity as we see it in the infrastructure segment. But what we're doing here is simply reallocating capital and resources to the tremendous growth opportunity that's evolving here in our regulated business, driven by Microsoft, driven by the other economic growth that we've described to you. So this is not really any comment at all in terms of the potential, the returns, or the opportunity in the infrastructure segment. It's just we have a tremendous opportunity here now to reallocate capital to our regulated enterprise.

Shahriar Pourreza
Shahriar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim

Got it. Perfect. All right. I'll pass it to someone else. We'll see you in about a week. Thanks, guys.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

All right. Take care, Shar. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ross Fowler with UBS. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Ross. How are you?

Ross Fowler
Ross Fowler
Analyst at UBS

Good afternoon. So Gale, just before we get into it, I've got November 22nd already circled on my calendar for Bucks-Celtics, so we'll get there quick, quicker than you think.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Hit really well. It will be fascinating.

Ross Fowler
Ross Fowler
Analyst at UBS

Yeah. So just a couple from me. I mean, I know, Gale, as we've talked about sort of the DRIP in the past, you never really turned it off, to my understanding. You've just been sort of buying back those shares. What's kind of been the traditional uptake of that DRIP program as I try to scale that equity in the plan to sort of what is DRIP internal and what might be ATM?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Well, it's a good question, and I will look to Shar to make sure my numbers are right. But it's varied over the years, the DRIP program. But generally, it's about $100 million-$150 million.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

$100 million-$200 million on average over the past 4 years. It's not just DRIP, it's DRIP and the employee benefit plans. And so we call the programmatic plans. So on average, it's $100 million-$200 million a year.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Ross, you're right. We have been buying shares off the market to satisfy both the DRIP plan and the employee benefit plan. So this simply kind of puts us back in a position where I think everybody else in the industry already is.

Ross Fowler
Ross Fowler
Analyst at UBS

Right. Got you, Gale. And then just there's been some confusion in the market maybe as you change sort of your coal retirement deadlines here in this plan and push those into the end of bring those forward, actually, I should say, to the end of 2032. Just remind me how the Power the Future works and then confirm for me that I'm right in thinking that if you do natural gas conversion at those units, that that fits into that mechanism as well.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Ross, you're absolutely right. It does fit into the mechanism. One way to look at it is all of the arrangements and all of the legal situations related to Power the Future and all the regulatory situation related to Power the Future is fuel agnostic. So there's really no regulatory approval required for us to do the major activity that we're already underway with, which is beginning a transition of the new coal-fired units at our Oak Creek site from coal to natural gas. And again, we're already making modifications at the plant itself. We're already testing burn of natural gas up to certain levels. We're planning to bring in larger meter sets, etc. So the work is underway to continue the transition of coal to natural gas at our new Oak Creek units.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

The other Power the Future units are already natural gas fired. But there really is no legal or regulatory requirement related to the concept of transitioning from coal to natural gas.

Ross Fowler
Ross Fowler
Analyst at UBS

That investment would earn that higher ROE and then go through that same sort of mortgage amortization process, if I'm thinking about that right?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

That is exactly correct, Ross. Yes.

Ross Fowler
Ross Fowler
Analyst at UBS

Okay. All right. I'll leave it there and pass it on to the next.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Terrific. Thank you, Ross.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Afternoon, Michael.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
VP of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Hey, Gale. How are you?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

We're good. We're good. By the way, Michael, there's no truth to the rumor that you're dressing up as Taylor Swift tonight for Halloween, is there?

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
VP of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

No. No. I've had enough with these at this point.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Or maybe you're dressing up as Travis Kelce. I'm not sure.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
VP of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Yeah. Anyways, at this point where we're at on the Illinois case, is it fair to say we're going to a final order in those cases, or is there still a chance something could be worked out here?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Time will tell, obviously. My sense is we will probably end up with a final review and a final decision by the Illinois Commission. Scott, your view?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. I think there's some oral arguments going on in the next couple of weeks, and I expect something by the end of November here.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
VP of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Okay. Great. And then I just wanted to ask, in terms of timing, I know a lot of people have been asking on this, Gale, just your kind of timeline for being in the current role that you're in. I think the last update there was through May of 2024. Just any sense of when you'll update us on that front? Are you tying yourself to Giannis with his extension, or?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Well, the problem is I asked our board for an extension at Giannis' pay level, and I'm not sure they're going to buy that. I mean, I appreciate the question. You're correct. My current agreement goes to May of 2024, and we're having some really good discussions with the board and with Scott, and we'll have an announcement here in the next very short period of time.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
VP of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Thank you, Michael. Take care.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Hey, hey.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Julian.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

How you doing? Hey, hey.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

We're good. I now have a name for your new dog.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Go for it. I'm all ears.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Equity.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Fair enough. True story. Love it. Darius got his second, and I'm still here without it yet, so I got to catch up. That's all I got to say.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

There you go.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Don't worry. He's dressing his dog up for Halloween, and I still am at whatever. It's all good.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Oh, man.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

It's all good. Look, you always have fun. I always got to say. I mean, you're still having fun though in the role, though, right, as a follow-up to the last question in brief?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Still having fun.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Okay. Excellent. Well, that's good to hear. Look, more seriously, though, maybe just to follow up on this, on the Microsoft response and just what's embedded in the Outlook versus what's incremental, I get that there's no white space. I mean, really, the question is, how soon and how much further can you go to the extent to which that they give clarity on their plans? Obviously, things are actively rolling on their front in addition to some of these other announcements that you articulated. I just want to understand how fully baked or how much, well, obviously, it's fully baked. How much further you could go and how soon that could be just given how meaningful the plant sizes are that are contemplated?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Great question, Julian. So let's put a couple of numbers around it. In this five-year plan, in this new five-year plan, we've included about 1,400 megawatts of additional capacity to support the Microsoft data center development and some of the broad-based economic growth that we've described to you. And that new capacity is really going to be needed for energy security and for us to continue to decarbonize. But in the current plan to support the Microsoft development and some of the other that I-94 corridor development that we've talked with you about, we're seeing the need for roughly 1,400 megawatts of additional capacity. That's embedded in that $3.3 billion increase in our capital plan. And we'll see where it goes. Obviously, we're beginning the process of looking at ordering equipment and starting work on identifying sites, etc., etc.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

So much of that capital for the capacity, the generating capacity, will be in years 3, 4, and 5.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Got it. Excellent. And just on the other side of the CapEx update, if I can, first off, LNG versus more gas storage, obviously, you guys have done a number of those announcements over the years. Thoughts about further acquisitions on that front or just how you think about the fungibility between LNG and the other? And then related here, also big update on the ATC front, is that just all MISO, Tranche 1? Does that have white space in it? I mean, just a big step forward on that front too. It's overshadowed here by the generation, but I just want to come and address that too.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

No. Again, no white space at all. Scott's on the ATC board. We'll ask Scott to respond to your question on the transmission.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. When you look at the transmission, and it's up significantly, as you noted, it's a combination of the economic development that Gale talked about, getting transmission to the region, also the renewables we're putting on the system and other utilities in the state are putting on the system, and then just regular system renewal in ATC's footprint. So you put it all together, and it's about $1 billion more. And I think you maybe saw their 10-year capital plan just came out, and it was also a significant increase from the prior one. So good growth, just good executable capital also at American Transmission Company. And we're 60% of that.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Scott, you're in my discussions. Some of that capital is really upgrading aging transmission facilities.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Exactly. It's renewing some of those older facilities that were put in years ago.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Awesome.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Does that answer your question?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Absolutely. Thank you.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. The gas storage. Yeah. The LNG and gas storage, the LNG is really making sure we have the capacity and putting those units in the state of Wisconsin. Just like over Christmas Day weekend, there was gas supply challenges. Having the LNG tank that we had at our South Oak Creek plant actually really helped the system that particular day. So having that in the state of Wisconsin is going to be very helpful on those very cold days when we need that capacity.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Scott's exactly right. And just to add on to that, we don't ever want to go through another Christmas Eve like we went through last Christmas Eve. I mean, as you know, there was a very significant cold snap, and many parts of the country had rolling blackouts. We did not. But a major transmission gas pipeline into Wisconsin lost about 40% of its capacity to bring gas in. If we hadn't had LNG storage right here that we could direct inject into our gas distribution networks, we would have had some real issues. So there's no doubt in our mind that for energy security, particularly at times when it gets to 20 and 30 degrees below zero, we need to have that capacity to keep gas flowing, to keep the heat on, and to keep the lights on in Wisconsin.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

That's a big rationale, a big part of what we're accomplishing with this investment that we've outlined.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Excellent. Thank you again. Good luck, guys. See you soon.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Kalton with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Neil Kalton
Neil Kalton
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hi, guys. Hi, guys.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Neil. How's it going?

Neil Kalton
Neil Kalton
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo

We're good. How's it going, Neil?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

It is going well. It's Halloween, fun day, so all is well down here. Just one quick question for you. In the EPS guidance, I think you affirmed the 6.5%-7%. Just curious, are you assuming any changes to the allowed earned ROEs in that forecast over five years?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

No. We're basically assuming status quo.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America

Okay. That was my question. That is all. Thank you.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Terrific. Thanks, Neil. Hang in there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Afternoon, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Hi. Good afternoon. Happy Halloween there.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Happy Halloween to you.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Thanks. I was just looking maybe to quantify transferability a little bit more. If you could walk us through the role of IRA tax credit transferability in your financing plan, specifically kind of with the $16.5-$17.5 billion in cash from operations, how much is tax credit there, and any sense as to how much incremental debt this allows you to take on?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Sure. Well, ask Xia to give you the details. I will say there's a significant amount of cash coming in from transferability of the tax credits, and it's a very positive thing overall for our cash sources. Xia?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. So in the five-year plan, we expect between $1.6 billion-$1.8 billion tax credits either we will use for our own tax appetite or sell to some third parties. And that's part of the, to your point, that's part of the FFO.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. That's helpful there. Thank you for that. Then just kind of continuing on, I guess, well, with equity funding in general, thank you for all the color that you provided here earlier. But just wondering, as you look forward to the plan, are your balance sheet metrics getting stronger, or are the metrics the same? Is this kind of looking to offset higher rates? Just wondering how this all comes together.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Getting stronger by the day.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. We feel good about hitting the target credit metrics. We're looking forward to sitting down. Scott and I are visiting the rating agencies next week. We look forward to the conversation with them.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. Thank you for that. And then maybe just a real quick last one. It's been kind of better than expected results. As we look forward into 4Q here, how we think about, I guess, O&M, should we expect to realize the full $40 million in non-recurring O&M expenses from 4Q 2022 as we lap, I guess, that positive variance there? And how does this impact your O&M outlook into 2024?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Well, Jeremy up, and we'll let Scott and Xia give you their view. Q4 last year had a lot of moving pieces that won't be repeated in Q4 this year. So I think you've got to look at it as a whole. There were close to $70 million of one-time or different initiatives or different levers that came to pass in Q4 of 2022. We're already in 2023 here, folks. So again, I would look at—I mean, I think the O&M numbers were a bit distorted because of things that happened deliberately, actions that we took in the Q4 last year. So again, I would look at it a little bit more holistically. We've been projecting all year a very strong Q4, and in our mind, that's still very much intact. Xia?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Not much to add. I think we have a little bit of last Q4, a little bit unfavorable weather. So hopefully, that's a tailwind. We have rate-based increase. We have fuel upside, and we have a very large O&M upside in the Q4. So we feel very good about the Q4 projections.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Terrific. Take care, Jeremy.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Anthony, rock and roll.

Anthony Crowdell
Anthony Crowdell
Senior Analyst at Mizuho

Hey. Good afternoon. Rock and roll. Happy Halloween.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Happy Halloween. Have you got your dog dressed up and named for the Halloween night here?

Anthony Crowdell
Anthony Crowdell
Senior Analyst at Mizuho

Deferred Asset. No, no, no. No pets. The four daughters are overwhelmingly enough. But I guess maybe just some quick housekeeping. Slide 21, great detail. And just curious, the footnote excludes ATC Capital. When we think of the growth going on at ATC Capital to Scott's comments earlier, is that self-funded, or does that also require funding by WEC?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

It's more than self-funded. So we excluded the ATC, the $3 billion, and the uses. But in the sources, we also netted out the cash they send us versus what we send down to them. The net net is a net positive. So they're self-funding but more than self-funding themselves.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. We get cash distributions back from ATC. So Xia's exactly right. It's self-funding plus cash back to the owners.

Anthony Crowdell
Anthony Crowdell
Senior Analyst at Mizuho

Great. And I'm sure you're not looking to front-run your meeting with the rating agencies. But if I could focus on, I think S&P right now has you on negative outlook. Is your assumption that the current plan will resolve their concerns? I'm assuming so. I just wanted to double-check with you there.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Well, a couple of things. First of all, just to clarify, the parent is on negative outlook. The utilities are stable. So I just wanted to make sure everybody remembers that. And then secondly, we think and we'll let Xia and Scott give you their view, but we think the fact that we're going to be issuing equity to support this growth plan will be viewed quite favorably. Again, we've not issued any new shares since 2015 when we did the acquisition of Integrys. Scott, your thoughts?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

You're exactly right, Gale. We'll sit down with them next week. They haven't seen the plan yet, so we just thought it made sense when we roll out the plan to then walk them through it year by year. Until they actually see it, it's hard to judge a decision. But I think we really complement it well with our capital growth and the credit metrics overall.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Xia?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Nothing more to add. We appreciate the opportunity to sit down with them and talk through the details.

Anthony Crowdell
Anthony Crowdell
Senior Analyst at Mizuho

Well, great. Looking forward to seeing you guys in Phoenix. Thanks for the time.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

All right. Thank you. Take care.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Greetings, Ofri.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director at Ladenburg

Yes. Not to beat a dead horse, but roughly where with the new investment program and the additional equity, do you land in terms of FFO to debt? Are you sort of in that 14%-15% range that you've targeted?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

No. It's part of the package, I think, we included. So we're targeting 15%-16% by S&P and Moody's.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director at Ladenburg

Right. So do you fall within that range then in terms of with the additional equity and the additional investment?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Yes. Absolutely.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Yep. Yep.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director at Ladenburg

Okay.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

That's the whole idea.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director at Ladenburg

Great. I just wanted to sort of confirm that. And then in terms of the coal exit, even though it's not sort of in your power of the future contract, it likely will have a bill impact on customers. So what sort of communication do you need to have with the existing commissioners?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Well. Go ahead, Scott.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

So when we look at it, we really don't see much of a bill impact because when you look at it, we're going to get the same output from the plant. You just won't have the O&M associated with running with the coal. So the real change is going to be you eliminate coal, but what is the price of natural gas? Natural gas would go up to $10. That's a whole different game. But that's more of a fuel issue, and the same thing with coal. So when you look at the operations, I don't think there's not a lot of capital investments that we're doing to do the conversion. They're smaller capital projects to just put in new burners. In fact, we're doing some this fall, and next spring, we're putting in some new burners also.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Just to add on to what Scott mentioned to you, this plan to convert from coal to natural gas at our newer Oak Creek units is one that's been in the making for at least a couple of years now. We've had extensive ongoing discussions with the commissioners. They understand what we're trying to achieve. They understand the importance of continuing to cost-effectively reduce CO2 emissions. Remember, our goal, which we're on track to achieve, is an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by the end of 2030. This is not a new concept to anyone in the state.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
EVP and CFO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. And when you think about the EPA rules going forward, if it was on coal, you'd have to put in carbon capture or do something with hydrogen. And carbon capture would be extremely expensive. And where do you put the carbon once you capture it? So we looked at what's efficient in the long term.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

One more fact. I think it's very important to remember how critical an asset those new Oak Creek units are on most days in the Midwest operator footprint because of the efficiency of those units and because of their incredible connection to the transmission network. Those units help keep the lights on not only in Wisconsin but across the Midwest. So very important asset. We're on track to do what we need to do to continue with the life of that asset for a long period of time with much lower emissions.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director at Ladenburg

Great. Thank you very much.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

You're welcome. Thank you.

Operator

Your last question today comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Greetings, Paul.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Greetings. So just back to the whole back to the rate question, I guess. With the new outlook that you guys have regarding rate-based growth, obviously, interest rates, inflation, etc., what is your expectation in Wisconsin and Illinois in terms of what base rate changes customers might see? Has it changed, or?

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Not really. But let's kind of take it state by state. In Illinois, what we're proposing in our current rate review is really no change in the level of investment in upgrading the pipe system, the natural gas pipe delivery system under Chicago. So we've been averaging about $280 million a year of investment in upgrading that aging, corroding pipe network. We're about 35%-36% complete with the upgrades, and we're proposing to continue at about $280 million a year. That's about the pace that we can do to get work done inside the city of Chicago. And remember, in our current rate review proposal in Chicago, even with the rate increase, if fully approved, coupled with a decline in commodity costs of natural gas, we're expecting flat customer bills for this coming winter in Illinois. So essentially, this plan really doesn't change the underlying fact pattern in Illinois.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

With the load growth, the demand growth that we expect to see in Wisconsin, again, we've been saying we think inflation-related rate increases in Wisconsin. Scott, that at least to me seems to still be the case.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. We'll see as we continue to roll out the plans here and look at the timing of it. I think it'll be approximately inflation as you go forward.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

Hope that responds, Paul.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

No, no. That's helpful. Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks so much.

Gale Klappa
Gale Klappa
Executive Chairman at WEC Energy Group

All right. Thank you. All right. Sports fans, well, this concludes our conference call for today. Thanks so much for your questions. Thanks for participating. If you have any additional questions, feel free to contact Ms. Straka. She can be reached at 414-221-4639. We look forward to seeing you all in Phoenix in just a couple of weeks. Take care, everyone.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Executives
Analysts
    • Shahriar Pourreza
      Senior Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Guggenheim
    • Ross Fowler
      Analyst at UBS
    • Michael Sullivan
      VP of Equity Research at Wolfe Research
    • Julien Dumoulin-Smith
      Director and Head of US Power, Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Research at Bank of America
    • Neil Kalton
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo
    • Jeremy Tonet
      Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan
    • Anthony Crowdell
      Senior Analyst at Mizuho
    • Paul Fremont
      Managing Director at Ladenburg
    • Paul Patterson
      Analyst at Glenrock Associates
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