BNP Paribas Exane Issues Pessimistic Forecast for CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) Stock Price

Key Points

• BNP Paribas Exane cut its CAVA price target from $84 to $62 and maintained a Neutral rating; the new target implies 10.38% upside from the prior close.
• CAVA shares fell to $56.17 in Thursday trading. The company’s quarterly EPS of $0.11 and revenue of $356.44 million both missed analyst expectations, although revenue grew 21% year over year.
• Analyst views remain broadly positive: CAVA has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and an average price target of $84.12. The company also raised its same-store sales outlook and authorized a $100 million share-repurchase plan.

CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA - Get Free Report) had its target price dropped by equities researchers at BNP Paribas Exane from $84.00 to $62.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, Benzinga reports. The firm presently has a "neutral" rating on the stock. BNP Paribas Exane's target price indicates a potential upside of 10.38% from the stock's previous close.

Several other research firms also recently weighed in on CAVA. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced their target price on shares of CAVA Group from $85.00 to $80.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research note on Friday, September 18th. Wolfe Research upped their price target on shares of CAVA Group from $79.00 to $82.00 and gave the company an "outperform" rating in a research note on Wednesday, August 12th. Telsey Advisory Group set a $76.00 price objective on shares of CAVA Group in a report on Thursday. Seaport Research Partners began coverage on shares of CAVA Group in a research note on Wednesday, September 16th. They issued a "buy" rating and a $58.00 price objective for the company. Finally, Northcoast Research raised shares of CAVA Group from a "sell" rating to a "neutral" rating in a report on Thursday, August 13th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seventeen have assigned a Buy rating and ten have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, CAVA Group has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $84.12.

CAVA Group Price Performance

Shares of CAVA traded down $5.81 during mid-day trading on Thursday, hitting $56.17. The stock had a trading volume of 4,748,541 shares, compared to its average volume of 3,375,054. The firm has a market cap of $6.56 billion, a P/E ratio of 102.38, a PEG ratio of 4.81 and a beta of 1.75. The business has a fifty day moving average price of $56.05 and a 200-day moving average price of $71.20. CAVA Group has a 52 week low of $43.41 and a 52 week high of $98.79.

CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, November 4th. The company reported $0.11 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.12 by ($0.01). The firm had revenue of $356.44 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $358.40 million. CAVA Group had a net margin of 4.82% and a return on equity of 8.28%. The company's revenue was up 21.0% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $0.12 earnings per share. As a group, research analysts expect that CAVA Group will post 0.55 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

CAVA Group declared that its board has authorized a share buyback plan on Friday, September 18th that authorizes the company to repurchase $100 million in outstanding shares. This buyback authorization authorizes the company to purchase up to 1.7% of its stock through open market purchases. Share buyback plans are typically a sign that the company's management believes its shares are undervalued.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, insider Douglas Thompson purchased 6,500 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 31st. The shares were purchased at an average cost of $66.52 per share, for a total transaction of $432,380.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider directly owned 19,371 shares in the company, valued at approximately $1,288,558.92. This represents a 50.50% increase in their position. The acquisition was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. 6.70% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On CAVA Group

A number of large investors have recently modified their holdings of CAVA. Ancora Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in CAVA Group in the second quarter worth approximately $27,000. FNY Investment Advisers LLC bought a new position in CAVA Group during the second quarter valued at approximately $31,000. Philadelphia Investment Partners LLC purchased a new position in shares of CAVA Group during the second quarter worth approximately $33,000. CX Institutional purchased a new position in shares of CAVA Group during the third quarter worth approximately $26,000. Finally, Scarborough Advisors LLC purchased a new position in shares of CAVA Group during the first quarter worth approximately $54,000. 73.15% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Key Stories Impacting CAVA Group

Here are the key news stories impacting CAVA Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: CAVA raised its full-year same-restaurant sales outlook after quarterly comparable sales grew 3.1%, citing continued market-share gains and a reduced drag from the cyclospora outbreak. Wall Street Journal article
• Positive Sentiment: The company’s 2026 outlook calls for 76–78 net new restaurant openings and adjusted EBITDA of $184 million to $189 million, supporting its growth story. Seeking Alpha article
• Neutral Sentiment: KeyCorp lowered its price target to $75 from $80 and TD Cowen cut its target to $76 from $78; both firms maintained bullish ratings, Overweight and Buy, respectively. The reductions temper the positive ratings but still imply substantial upside from the prices cited in the reports. KeyCorp analyst recommendations TD Cowen analyst recommendations
• Negative Sentiment: Third-quarter adjusted earnings were $0.11 per share versus the $0.12 consensus, while revenue of $356.44 million also came in below expectations of about $358.4 million. Revenue still grew 21% year over year, but the double miss likely weighed on shares. Benzinga article
• Negative Sentiment: Management also pointed to broader pressures across the restaurant industry, raising concern that consumer and operating conditions could challenge performance despite the stronger sales outlook. Benzinga article

CAVA Group Company Profile

CAVA Group, Inc operates CAVA, a fast-casual restaurant brand serving Mediterranean-inspired food in the United States. Its menu includes customizable bowls and pitas, salads, dips, spreads, grilled proteins, and other Mediterranean dishes, with options designed to accommodate a range of dietary preferences.

The company's restaurants generally use an assembly-line format that allows customers to build meals from a selection of ingredients and sauces. CAVA also offers its branded dips, spreads, and other products through select grocery and retail channels, extending the brand beyond its restaurant locations.

CAVA was founded in 2010 by Dimitri Moshovitis, Ike Grigoropoulos, and Ted Xenohristos.

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