BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Price Up 15.7% - Should You Buy?

Key Points

• Shares rose 15.7% intraday to $4.72 (high $4.82) on Friday, with ~56.5M shares traded—about 29% below its average daily volume.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed: the consensus is a "Hold" with an average price target of $6.00, after recent downgrades from Cantor Fitzgerald and Wall Street Zen and a lone buy from HC Wainwright ($8 target).
• Fundamentals remain weak—BigBear.ai missed quarterly EPS, reported a 20.1% YoY revenue decline and a negative net margin of 274.7%—yet large institutions (Vanguard, UBS, Two Sigma) have materially increased stakes while insiders have trimmed small positions.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI - Get Free Report)'s share price rose 15.7% on Friday . The company traded as high as $4.82 and last traded at $4.72. Approximately 56,494,966 shares traded hands during mid-day trading, a decline of 29% from the average daily volume of 80,044,086 shares. The stock had previously closed at $4.08.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

Several brokerages have issued reports on BBAI. Cantor Fitzgerald cut BigBear.ai from an "overweight" rating to a "neutral" rating and dropped their target price for the company from $7.00 to $6.00 in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. Weiss Ratings reissued a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. Wall Street Zen cut shares of BigBear.ai from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a report on Saturday, January 10th. Finally, HC Wainwright reiterated a "buy" rating and set a $8.00 target price on shares of BigBear.ai in a report on Tuesday, November 11th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, BigBear.ai currently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $6.00.

BigBear.ai Trading Up 15.7%

The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a current ratio of 3.13. The company's 50-day moving average price is $5.92 and its 200-day moving average price is $6.24. The firm has a market capitalization of $2.06 billion, a PE ratio of -3.32 and a beta of 3.45.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Monday, November 10th. The company reported ($0.07) earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.06) by ($0.01). The business had revenue of $33.14 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $31.82 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 274.70% and a negative return on equity of 26.11%. The firm's quarterly revenue was down 20.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned ($0.05) earnings per share. On average, sell-side analysts expect that BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. will post -0.28 earnings per share for the current year.

Insider Buying and Selling at BigBear.ai

In other news, Director Dorothy D. Hayes sold 22,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, November 18th. The stock was sold at an average price of $6.08, for a total value of $133,760.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director directly owned 236,150 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $1,435,792. The trade was a 8.52% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Also, CFO Sean Raymond Ricker sold 5,000 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, December 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $7.06, for a total value of $35,300.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 488,716 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $3,450,334.96. This trade represents a 1.01% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. 0.54% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On BigBear.ai

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in BBAI. Vanguard Group Inc. boosted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 18.4% in the fourth quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 32,695,344 shares of the company's stock valued at $176,555,000 after acquiring an additional 5,090,508 shares during the period. UBS Group AG grew its position in BigBear.ai by 145.7% during the 4th quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 10,386,833 shares of the company's stock worth $56,089,000 after purchasing an additional 6,158,665 shares during the last quarter. Jump Financial LLC acquired a new position in BigBear.ai in the second quarter valued at $37,407,000. Geode Capital Management LLC raised its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 125.2% in the second quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 5,074,311 shares of the company's stock valued at $34,456,000 after buying an additional 2,820,698 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Two Sigma Investments LP boosted its stake in shares of BigBear.ai by 165.5% during the third quarter. Two Sigma Investments LP now owns 4,903,920 shares of the company's stock worth $31,974,000 after buying an additional 3,056,597 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 7.55% of the company's stock.

About BigBear.ai

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.

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