Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) Releases Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.25 EPS

Key Points

• Astrana Health reported $0.71 EPS, beating estimates by $0.25. Quarterly revenue was $1.02 billion, in line with expectations and up 7.1% year over year.
• The company generated about $105 million in free cash flow over the first nine months and repaid $116 million of debt, reducing net leverage to 2.2x. It narrowed its 2026 guidance ranges while keeping their midpoints unchanged.
• Medicaid trends are a headwind: membership attrition and higher-than-assumed medical costs are weighing on the business, with management anticipating a 10%–15% Medicaid membership decline in 2027.

Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH - Get Free Report) released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $0.71 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.46 by $0.25, FiscalAI reports. Astrana Health had a return on equity of 10.30% and a net margin of 1.05%. The business had revenue of $1.02 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $1.02 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $0.01 earnings per share. The company's quarterly revenue was up 7.1% compared to the same quarter last year.

Here are the key takeaways from Astrana Health's conference call:

• Astrana reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.02 billion, up 7%, and adjusted EBITDA of $77.2 million, up 13% year over year and near the high end of guidance. Management said EBITDA growth was organic, supported by maturing risk-bearing cohorts, improved medical cost performance, and operating efficiencies.
• Cash generation and debt reduction strengthened the balance sheet: Astrana generated about $105 million in free cash flow through the first nine months and repaid $116 million of debt, bringing net leverage to 2.2x. The company expects to approach 2.0x net leverage by year-end.
• Growth initiatives include new Medicare Advantage partnerships for 2027, expansion into Georgia, and two new Care Enablement clients. Management said Texas risk-bearing cohorts are performing ahead of plan and expects the platform, including AI-enabled tools, to support scalable growth and operating leverage.
• Medicaid remains a headwind: membership attrition is tracking toward the middle-to-high end of this year’s 10%–15% range, and medical cost trends are above initial assumptions. For 2027, Astrana is planning for a 10%–15% Medicaid membership decline and a mid-single-digit EBITDA growth headwind, while also anticipating exchange and ACO-related changes.
• Astrana narrowed its 2026 guidance ranges while maintaining their midpoints: revenue of $3.9–$4.0 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $261–$274 million, and free cash flow of $107.5–$130 million. Management expects the fourth quarter to be the lowest-profitability quarter of the year and said it will provide formal 2027 guidance with its next results.

Astrana Health Price Performance

Shares of NASDAQ ASTH traded down $0.66 during trading on Thursday, hitting $39.01. 529,029 shares of the company were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 289,416. The company has a market cap of $2.17 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.57 and a beta of 1.18. Astrana Health has a 1 year low of $18.08 and a 1 year high of $51.60. The firm's fifty day moving average price is $37.06 and its 200 day moving average price is $33.98. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05, a current ratio of 1.23 and a quick ratio of 1.23.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of equities analysts recently weighed in on ASTH shares. Truist Financial lifted their price objective on shares of Astrana Health from $47.00 to $55.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Monday, August 10th. BTIG Research raised their target price on shares of Astrana Health from $50.00 to $65.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Tuesday, July 14th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "hold (c)" rating on shares of Astrana Health in a report on Thursday, August 27th. Oppenheimer began coverage on shares of Astrana Health in a research note on Tuesday, September 15th. They set an "outperform" rating and a $53.00 price target on the stock. Finally, TD Cowen increased their price target on shares of Astrana Health from $45.00 to $50.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a report on Tuesday, July 14th. Eight investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Astrana Health presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $49.88.

About Astrana Health

Astrana Health, Inc NASDAQ: ASTH, formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, is a healthcare enablement company focused on helping providers and health plans deliver coordinated, value-based care. The company combines physician networks, care-management capabilities, technology and data analytics to support improved clinical outcomes and more efficient healthcare delivery.

Astrana Health's services include population health management, physician practice support, utilization management, care coordination and clinical analytics.

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